What's Happening In Newington

370
FXUS61 KOKX 161818
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
118 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Orange, Putnam,
and W Passaic counties. Forecast snow totals have again
increased mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley into western CT
for the snow event tonight into Saturday. Forecast totals in
these areas are now widespread 2 to 4 inches.

Forecast snow totals for our second system Sunday morning into
Sunday evening have also increased across eastern Long Island and
southeastern Connecticut, but confidence still remains low on
the track of this system.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Light snow accumulation expected late tonight into Saturday. 2
to 4 inches for the Lower Hudson Valley and western CT with less
than 1 inch expected elsewhere. Rain starts to mix in along the
coast Saturday morning.

2.) The chance for snow remains early Sunday morning through Sunday
evening. The highest chances are across eastern CT and eastern Long
Island.

3.) Cold weather is expected Monday through Friday with the coldest
period Monday night through Tuesday night, with sub freezing
highs Tuesday. No record cold expected through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
With low pressure moving through the Great Lakes, our area will get
persistent light warm advection. This is expected to result in light
snowfall accumulation for much of the area tonight into Saturday.
Forecast soundings support all snow at the onset of precipitation
which is expected to be just after midnight tonight. A changeover to
a mix or all plain rain will then start after sunrise for the coast,
depending on how quickly temperatures warm up. The interior will
remain all snow.

Current forecast has 2 to 4 inches for the Lower Hudson Valley,
western CT, and interior northeast New Jersey. This had led to the
issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for Orange, Putnam, and W
Passaic counties.

Amounts drop off sharply towards the coast and NYC due to warm air
reducing snow ratios and leading to an eventual transition to a mix
or plain rain. Amounts in SW CT and metro NJ/NYC will be closer to a
trace to 0.5" with only a trace to a few tenths expected
elsewhere.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A shortwave embedded in the larger upper level trough over the
eastern US will lift towards the area on Sunday. This will aid in
surface low pressure development somewhere near the southeast US.
While variability in track has lessened with the latest 12Z
guidance, there still remains some differences.

Overall, the precip shield north of the low should end up close
enough to shore to lead to likely POPs across eastern Long Island
and SE CT. Areas to the west of here may end up too far away from
the low to receive significant accumulations, but this could still
change if the low tracks closer to the coast than expected. Much of
the event should remain cold enough to keep it primarily snow
through the duration of the precipitation.

Expected snow totals for eastern Long Island and SE CT are between 2
to 4 inches, which reaches Winter Weather Advisory criteria. The
remainder of the area should see 1 to 2 inches of snow with areas of
the NW interior less than an inch. However, given variability in the
low`s track, this could easily trend to be an inch or less for
eastern areas if the low tracks too far away. There is only medium-
to-low confidence in this, at this time.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Cold weather will remain across the region next week, with,
temperatures remaining below normal much of the time. The coldest
period will be Monday night through Tuesday night as Canadian cold
air moves into the region behind a cold frontal passage Monday night.
Temperatures during this period will be as much as 10 to 20 degrees
below normal. Despite the anomalously cold air no records are
expected to be set. And with windy conditions Monday into Tuesday,
wind chill values will remain higher than cold weather advisory
criteria. For Wednesday through Friday temperatures will be near
normal to near 5 degrees below normal. There will be minimal chances
of light snow and/or light rain Wednesday night into Friday as
weak low pressure systems pass near the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure briefly builds in this afternoon. A frontal system
approaches tonight into Saturday morning.

VFR through this evening. Cigs lower after 03Z Saturday with the
potential for light snow toward and after 6Z for NW terminals and
after 09z for city terminals. MVFR is possible with any snow. IFR
becomes increasingly likely at KSWF towards and after 09z, where
snow may lower VSBYs to 1-2 miles or less. -SN for most terminals by
12z, with coastal terminals mixing with and changing to -RA towards
15-16z. Snow accumulations at KSWF of 2-3 inches, and KHPN around 1
inch.

W winds subside and back to the SW between 18-21Z this afternoon.
Winds will subside to 10kt sustained. Winds will remain mainly SW,
with more of a S wind for coastal terminals overnight and into early
Saturday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed towards and after 09z with any light snow.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday afternoon: Chance in early afternoon with MVFR or lower at
times with rain and/or snow. VFR late in the day and at night.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in snow, mainly afternoon into
evening with highest chance for eastern most terminals.

Monday: VFR. WSW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. W to SW winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning of the ocean has expired. A SMall Craft ADvisory
has been hoisted over the ocean waters through tomorrow for 5-6
ft seas. 25 kt gusts over ocean waters should taper below 25 kt
early tonight. Non-ocean waters remain in a SCA through late
afternoon for 25 kt gusts. Its possible ocean waters may hold
onto 5 ft seas through the end of the weekend.

A strong and gusty west to southwest flow will be predominate on the
forecast waters Monday through Wednesday night as a strong pressure
gradient force remains across the area with high pressure remaining
much of the time to the south and weak lows moving across to the
north. Small craft advisory conditions are expected on the ocean
waters from Monday through Wednesday night, with the possibility of
gusts nearing gale force for a brief time Monday night, and mainly
east of Fire Island Inlet.

For the non ocean waters with the strongest winds Monday through
Tuesday SCA gusts are possible, with seas on Long Island Sound also
at SCA levels, of 5 to 6 feet. Then Tuesday night through Wednesday
night conditions will be sub SCA for the non ocean waters.



&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR/MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BR/MET