NewingtonWeather.COM

548
FXUS61 KOKX 110005
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
705 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast have been made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low pressure will impact the region from Thursday into early
Saturday. Any impacts would appear to be limited at this time.

2) Coastal flooding will be possible (mostly minor) Thursday and
Friday during high tide cycles for portions of the coast,
particularly during the daytime high tides.

3) High pressure returns dry weather for most of the weekend through
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface low pressure with upper support is expected to slowly
strengthen as it shifts east from the Ohio Valley Wednesday night
and passes nearby or just south of us Thursday afternoon into night.
The low then lingers just offshore to our east during Friday as
the upper low approaches the region. The storm system finally
shifts away towards the Canadian Maritimes Friday night into
Saturday.

Generally speaking, precipitation chances are highest from Thursday
afternoon through Friday afternoon. Regarding impacts, there is a
chance of wet snow being mixed in with rainfall for the higher
elevations well N of the city as early as Friday morning, but
this is more likely Friday night. Too early for high confidence
regarding any potential accumulation there, but it would appear
that any accumulation would be minor with limited impacts as
precip chances will be diminishing by the time enough cold air
filters in for higher probability of accumulating snow being a
precip type. Flooding impacts due to rainfall don`t appear to be
an issue in light of progged rainfall amounts and current flash
flood guidance values. Wind impact chances look low so far as
well since the storm doesn`t strengthen more rapidly until it`s
well northeast of us. So while winds should pick up Friday night
into Saturday, gusts likely remain below advisory thresholds.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of a recent new moon (Nov. 9) and an area of low
pressure forecast to move off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday will
bring the potential for minor coastal flooding during the daytime
high tide cycles Thursday and Friday. There is also some uncertainty
with how far to the south the low track will be of LI. The latter is
important to the strength and duration of the easterly flow on
Thursday.

Most locations will be need 1.5 to 2.5 ft above astronomical high
tide to get to the minor flood benchmark. Right now, stayed with a
model consensus for the surge forecast. This puts the typical, more
vulnerable locations of the south shore back bays of western LI and
SW CT coast, right around the minor coastal flood benchmark. Stevens
NYHOPs does show the 95th percentile getting into moderate flooding
at Freeport.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A large area of high pressure builds in from the west this weekend
through Tuesday. After any potential lingering precipitation from
the exiting storm system Saturday morning, dry weather prevails
through Tuesday with temperatures running around 5 degrees below
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak trough will pass through late this evening. Otherwise, high
pressure over the region will slide east Tuesday afternoon.

VFR.

W to WSW winds 10 kt or less early tonight shift to W to WNW
after about 03Z-04Z. Winds remain 10 kt or less through the TAF
period, with winds shifting to the S then SE Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday afternoon: VFR.

Wednesday night: VFR. MVFR cigs moving in from the NW
overnight, with terminals N and W of the city seeing MVFR after
06Z, low chance for metro terminals of MVFR by around daybreak
Thu. Rain becoming likely from the NYC metros north/west after
midnight.

Thursday: Cond lowering to MVFR/IFR with periods of rain. E winds
G20kt.

Thursday night: MVFR/IFR in rain. NE winds 15G20-25kt, becoming N
after midnight.

Friday: MVFR/IFR in rain. NW winds 15G20-25kt.

Friday night: Still a chance of MFR or lower cond. Rain at most
terminals, except a snow/rain mix possible at KSWF. NW winds G20kt
in the evening.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR with rain showers at KISP/KGON, otherwise
VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.

Sunday: VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Waves for the rest of the day are expected to prevail below 5 ft,
and while there may be some gusts on the ocean waters to 25 kt or
higher, thinking is that it would be only for the rest of the
daylight hours and not a widespread occurrence. SCA has therefore
been canceled on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet. Sub-
advisory conditions then prevail through Wednesday night with a weak
pressure gradient.

Low pressure then brings an extended period of SCA conditions for
Thursday through Sunday on most, if not all waters. Gale force gusts
will be possible on just about all ocean waters Friday through
Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC