What's Happening In Newington

841
FXUS61 KOKX 061122
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
722 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall totals have gradually lowered for today into tonight, with
predominantly dry conditions expected now on Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The warmer conditions experienced yesterday give way to more
seasonable temperatures today, mainly due to more cloud cover. A
seasonable air mass settles in behind a cold front for the remainder
of this week.

2) Wet at times today into this evening with no impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
As a cold front approaches from the west today with clouds
moving in. This, combined with a southerly flow off the colder
ocean for most places will mean more seasonable temperatures
overall with widespread 60s and upper 50s for eastern sections,
and lower 70s towards the NYC metro and points W and NW. The
cold front will bring a period, or multiple periods of wet
conditions later today into a portion of tonight before the cold
front moves east of the region late tonight into Thursday
morning. The front should progress enough to the east to allow a
drier and cooler air mass to work in on a NW to W flow with
increasing sunshine now expected Thursday. Sun is also expected
during Friday with temperatures generally in the 60s and near
normal both days. More clouds arrive on Saturday with the
likelihood of showers returning with temperatures near normal
once again with mainly 60s region wide.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
There appears to be less synoptic scale forcing overall at this
point for today into tonight, and thus the rainfall totals have
been lowered, with most places seeing no more than a half inch
of rainfall. Also the entirety of the rain takes place this
afternoon into the first half of tonight, with dry conditions
now expected mainly across the entire area by Thursday morning
with the cold front now projected to move faster and to get
further east into Thursday morning. This is a noticeable change
over the past few days of model guidance, with Thursday now
forecast to be predominantly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A frontal system impacts the area today. High pressure builds in
from the west late tonight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions until 15-16Z, then MVFR with possible IFR in
showers. MVFR may continue for a period overnight tonight as
showers end, becoming VFR before or towards daybreak tomorrow.

Winds then become gusty again early today, SW 15-20G25kt. Winds
turn NW tonight behind the front around or under 10 kt. They
remain so into tomorrow.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of showers and lower categories could be off by 1-3
hours. Unscheduled amendments possible.

There is some uncertainty with regard to flight categories
today. Its possible IFR ceilings could occur.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR. W/WSW wind gusts near 20 kt, diminishing at night.

Saturday: Chance of showers and MVFR. S wind gusts near 20 kt.

Sunday: VFR early. MVFR or lower possible in showers by evening.
S wind gusts near 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions will prevail across all waters today, with
the perhaps the southern bays of LI and eastern bays of LI having a
few occasional gusts approaching gale force. The winds will switch
to the NW during tonight from west to east as sub advisory
conditions gradually return across the non-ocean waters as small
craft seas will persist for the ocean waters through most of
tonight. The eastern ocean may experience small craft seas through a
portion of Thursday morning. Thereafter, sub advisory conditions are
expected to prevail on all waters through Friday night, with a
period of marginal small craft conditions for the ocean waters for a
period of time on Saturday. Another brief period of small craft
conditions may take place on Sunday for the western ocean and
western south shore bays of LI, otherwise sub advisory conditions
are anticipated much of the time Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-332-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335-
     338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE