What's Happening In Newington

865
FXUS61 KOKX 111751
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1251 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure stalls to the north ushering in weak troughs from time
to time through Friday. Low pressure develop to the south Saturday
night. The low will then ride along a strong front Saturday night
into Sunday with the low pushing offshore with the cold front.
Strong high pressure then builds for early next week. A warm
front will attempt to approach towards late Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Gusty winds today. Wind Advisory in effect for eastern and
  coastal areas.

* Sharply colder today into tonight.

A strong and gusty WNW flow prevails throughout today and tonight.
Given the morning observations of near 40kt gusts from several
locations around the eastern and coastal areas overperforming,
have opted to issue a Wind Advisory for the eastern and coastal
portions of the CWA. More efficient mixing should take place
with increased CAA through the late morning and afternoon with
more frequent 40kt gusts expected. Even western locations
outside of the advisory may have a few gusts approach advisory
criteria but aren`t expected to be widespread enough to expand
the advisory. Gusts should gradually fall off late tonight as
the pressure gradient slowly weakens. As of now, the Wind
Advisory goes through 4AM but it may need to be extended based
on wind gusts observations overnight.

Otherwise, it will be unseasonably cold with 850 mb temps
getting down to -12, -13C. Lows will range from the upper teens
well inland, to mainly lower and middle 20s in most places
closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Cold Friday into Friday night, followed by temperature
  moderation into Saturday.

* Light snow possible late Saturday night as cold air arrives.

A gusty W flow continues to begin Friday, but not quite as
strong. With the core of the cold air mass beginning to slide
further east look for temperatures to get just above freezing in
most places by later in the afternoon, with wind chills mainly
in the 20s during the afternoon. With the winds going light
Friday night it will be cold with a good degree of radiational
cooling possible, but will depend on the amount of cloud cover
as a weak shortwave attempt to draw closer from the west. Lows
will be in the teens and 20s.

During Saturday the winds become more WSW which helps temperatures
approach 40 in the afternoon closer to the coast, with middle and
upper 30s elsewhere. Clouds will work in with a shearing out
shortwave during the day with the chance of a few flurries,
otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies. A more potent shortwave
rounding the base of the eastern trough approaches Saturday night.
Skies will be cloudy with the chance of snow increasing later at
night into early Sunday morning, with the relatively higher chance
of mainly snow for the eastern half of the area. Any snow could
begin briefly as a wintry mix along the immediate coast, but should
be mainly snow as much colder air works in early Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

*  Weak low pressure in association with an Arctic boundary and
   upper level disturbance could bring light snow, or a period of
   snow for the eastern half of the forecast area Sunday morning.

*  A shot of unseasonably cold air will follow for later Sunday
   through Monday night, with temps up to 10 to 15 degrees below
   normal. Temperatures should start to moderate late Tuesday into
   Tuesday night but will remain below normal.

Low pressure passes well north of the area into Saturday night and
Sunday morning. At the same time, another fast moving vorticity max
rounds the base of the upper level trough over the Ohio and
Tennessee River Valleys and moves toward the forecast area.
Additionally, and arctic front moves through into Sunday.
Cyclogenesis is also likely along the front on Sunday well SE of New
England after it passes through, likely too late to have significant
snow impacts. However, a light snowfall is looking more likely, with
the possibility of a light accumulation of an inch or two. The best
chance of this looks to be for the more eastern portions of the
area. There remain differences among global NWP and thus it is too
far out to discuss snow or accumulations in greater detail. At this
time the upper trough appears progressive enough that drying behind
the front should be fairly quick and would preclude a more impactful
or prolonged snowfall.

After the passage of the cold front, colder conditions move in
Sunday afternoon through Mon night. Single digit to near zero wind
chills are looking likely for Monday morning, and wind chills may
not get out of the teens during the day Monday. The high should
build over the area on Tuesday and remain in control through
Wednesday, keeping the area dry through then. A warm front will
attempt to approach Wednesday night into Thursday and will bring the
chance of a few rain showers.

Temps will run 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Monday into Monday
night. A slight moderation in high temps (lower to middle 30s) is
expected for Tuesday, with less wind chill impact as winds lighten.
Temperatures return closer to normal by Wednesday, and may actually
inch above normal by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong low pressure moves farther northeast of the region while
weak high pressure gradually builds in from the south and west
through the TAF period.

Gusty WNW flow is expected through the TAF period. Sustained
winds near 20-23 kt through this afternoon, and then more in
the 15-20 kt range this evening before lowering more to 15 kt
overnight. For wind gusts, those will range mainly between 30
and 35 kt through this afternoon with peak gusts 35-39 kt. Some
terminals expected to get occasional peaks of 40-42 kt gusts,
particularly those more eastern terminals, KLGA, KJFK, KHPN,
KISP and CT terminals. Gusts decrease closer to 30-35 kt for
mid to late this evening, then around 25 kt overnight into
early Friday.

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts could occasionally be a few kts higher or lower than
indicated in TAF.

Occasional peak gust up to 45 kt possible into early this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Rest of Friday: VFR. W-WNW wind gusts near 20 kt. Gusts subside
at night.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Snow moving in late Saturday night with
MVFR to IFR possible. WSW wind gusts near 15 kt during the day.

Sunday: MVFR to IFR, possibly lower at times, in any snow,
mainly early. Snow tapers off from west to east afternoon into
early evening. Improving conditions afternoon into evening with
VFR returning. NW winds G15-20kt. Some peak gusts up to 25 kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G20-25kt. Gusts lower at night with
some gusts to 20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. W winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale conditions across the waters today on W to WNW winds in
the wake of a cold front. Gales should last through this evening
for all the waters, with more marginal gales late tonight for
the western waters. Gales should continue for the eastern most
waters through the entire night. As the winds decrease look for
gale conditions to go to small craft conditions for the majority
of the waters through the first half of the day Friday.
Marginal small craft conditions should linger across the eastern
ocean through Friday afternoon. Conditions continue to settle
down for Friday night into Saturday morning. Ocean seas increase
some Saturday night but should remain just below small craft
criteria.

Behind another cold front winds and seas ramp up quickly on Sunday
with small craft conditions by the late morning or afternoon. A
period of gales is then possible Sunday night into Monday morning.
Gale conditions should subside to small craft conditions during the
day Monday with marginal small craft conditions likely lingering
through Monday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic impacts expected through the entire forecast
period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ071>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NJZ006.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-
     353.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ335-338-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/JP
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JE/JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE
HYDROLOGY...JE