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190
FXUS61 KOKX 040530
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1230 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably warm through Thursday.

2) A band of moderate to heavy rainfall is becoming increasingly
likely Thursday night into Friday, especially from NYC and
point east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A highly amplified upper level ridge along the eastern seaboard
will provide another couple of days of unseasonable warmth,
with temperatures at least 10-15 degrees above normal.The
warmest day will come on Wednesday with much of the area
topping out around 70, with the low to mid 70s across the
interior and NJ metro. This is still in line with the slightly
warmer GFS MOS guidance and higher NBM percentiles. Thursday
takes a slight step down with increasing clouds and a
strengthening southerly flow (off the cooler ocean waters).

Forecast highs are below records at this time.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A highly amplified upper flow featuring the interaction of
multiple streams of energy will become the major player as an
upper trough undergoes amplification approaching the eastern
seaboard at the end of the week. The cold front associated with
the upper trough approaches the area on Thursday, preceded by
some warm advection showers, but mainly north and west of the
NYC metro. As the front works across the area Thursday night
into Friday, deep-layered lift develops due to the coupling of
upper jet exit and entrance regions and a strengthening frontal
zone. Models are in good agreement with a band of heavy rain
setting up across the area on Friday. Both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF
point toward a 2 to 3 inch swath east of NYC across LI and SE CT,
but dropping to less than inch just NW of NYC. NBM mean has swath
of 1.5 to 2 inches from NYC east, highest amounts across eastern
LI and SE CT. The 10% exceedance (1 in 10 chance) is about 3 to 4
inches. However, the axis has jumped around from west to east the
last 24 hours and with the aforementioned complexity of the flow,
there is likely to be additional fluctuation. While there is some
instability to support deeper convection, we are not in the window
of the CAMs to see hourly rates. 12Z GFS has PWAT values around
1.5" across the eastern half of the area, which is above the 90th
percentile.

WPC has the NYC metro, LI, coastal CT, and interior SE CT under
a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Friday. However, dry
antecedent conditions are in place due to little if any
rainfall since mid October. This will also be a long duration
event. Thus, the main flooding issues at this time look to be
minor, but longer terms issues like basement flooding are a
possibility.

Heaviest rainfall likely comes to end by Saturday morning, but
some shower activity could linger on saturday with the upper low
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains centered off the Mid Atlantic coast into
midweek.

Mainly VFR through Wednesday.

Light SW/S flow continues tonight at 10 kt or less, wind some spots
becoming light and variable. Similar flow expected on Wednesday.
Possible shallow fog development around the morning push that could
lead to some restrictions after 9Z, but will omit from most sites
for now unless/until confidence in occurrence increases. More
confidence in lowering of cigs Wednesday night around or after 6Z
Thursday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Possible shallow fog could lead to sub VFR at times early Wednesday
morning, mainly between 9-13Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR, SW to S winds.

Thursday: VFR during the day. MVFR becomes likely at night for cigs
and showers.

Friday: MVFR/IFR possible w/ showers. Thunder also possible.

Saturday: Improving to VFR early.

Sunday: MVFR possible w/ showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90


&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA cond forecast on all waters through Sunday. That said,
there remains a low chance that seas on the near shore ocean
waters (especially out east) may approach 5 ft at some point
from Thu night into Sat as a frontal system impacts the waters,
preceded by a prolonged period of S-SW flow.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC/MW
MARINE...DW