What's Happening In Newington

505
FXUS61 KOKX 100233
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory issued Thursday for all but far eastern LI and
portions of SE CT.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Expect showers, possibly a thunderstorm on Wednesday along
and ahead of a warm front.

2) Hot and humid Thursday into Friday.

3) Cold front approaches Friday and passes through at night.

4) Temperatures remaining above normal this weekend into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Shortwave enregy will move over top a high amplitude upper
level ridge along the eastern seaboard. In turn, this will send
weak surface low pressure over the Great Lakes north and east,
sending a warm front toward the area on Wednesday. The warm
front will move through Wednesday evening. Warm advection
showers, mainly scattered in coverage, will develop across the
area Wednesday morning and spread west to east into the
afternoon. Airmass will initially be stable and any
thunderstorms that do occur will be late in the day toward
evening as the airmass gradually destabilizes. PW values around
2 inches and efficient warm rain processes could result in some
heavy downpours toward evening. However, storm motion will be
from the west at 20-25 kt and training or clustering of cells
seems unlikely at this time. Still, minor nuisance poor drainage
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Cloud cover and southerly winds will keep temperatures mainly in
the 70s for highs on Wednesday. Forecast highs are a few degrees
above normal. It will also become noticeably more humid as dew
points climb through the 60s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Upper ridge reestablishes itself briefly on Thursday as the
aforementioned shortwave energy and warm front move offshore.
However, a hot and humid airmass in wake of the warm frontal
passage will be moderately to highly unstable. Environment will
be weakly sheared, so no organized convection is expected at
this time. Pulse severe will be possible in the high CAPE
environment. The one limiting factor could be convective debris
from upstream convection, which could keep temperatures a bit
cooler. For the time, this looks to be more diurnally driven
with scattered late afternoon/evening convection. One caveat
here is that some of the guidance is suggesting a backdoor cold
front that could serves as a focus, but this looks to be later
in the day.

More importantly at this time, a heat advisory is in effect for
heat indices of 95 to 100 on Thursday. This is for all but far
eastern LI and portions of SE CT.

It becomes more uncertain heading into Friday as some of the
guidance does bring a backdoor cold front across the area late
Thursday night into Friday. Should this occur, how far west the
boundary gets will be critical. An easterly flow behind the
boundary would result in cooler temperatures than those that
are currently forecast. Thus, the heat advisory was not extended
into Friday. The best chance would be from NYC and points north
and west. If the boundary does not make it, high heat and
humidity would be more expansive on Friday.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A better organized convective event is possible with an
approaching cold front late Friday into Friday night. SPC has a
15 percent probability for severe weather across the forecast
area. Damaging wind looks to be the main threat.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
A cold frontal passage will bring reduced humidity this weekend,
however temps will remain above average with highs in the 80s and
lower 90s. Temps might cool down a little for Mon and Tue, but the
blended approach still yields highs in the 80s almost all areas.
Coolest spots at the shore but even mid to upper 70s progged at
Montauk.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure gradually shifts offshore. A warm front pushes
through on Wednesday.

VFR through Wednesday morning. MVFR then possible with 2500-3000
kft cigs and isolated to scattered showers during the day
Wednesday, with the best chances in the afternoon and evening.
An isolated thunderstorm will be possible as well, with the best
chances after 22z.

Southerly flow continues overnight around 10kt or less. The flow
becomes more SW on Wednesday and increases to 15kt. Winds
subside Wednesday night to around 10kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed to fine tune the timing of
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday-Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times with chances
of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal SCA conditions are possible Wednesday night in a
southerly flow of 15 to 20 kt. Vertical temperature profile
inverted offshore, so gusts should be limited to up to 25 kt
with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain blw SCA lvls
through this weekend into the beginning of next week as high
pres builds in from the west.

Rip Currents...

For Wednesday, there is a moderate rip current risk with SSW winds
and waves around 3 ft.

For Thursday, there is a moderate rip current risk with SW winds
and waves around 3 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ005>007-
     009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ067>075-
     078-080-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/DW