Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products

(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)

Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY

To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List

County Warning Area MAP
Select Forecast Office:   Select Product:  
076
FXUS61 KOKX 171531
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1131 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All land based advisories / hazards have expired.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wind gusts will slowly diminish this afternoon, with some
peak gusts through mid day up to 40 to 45 mph.

2) An unseasonably cold airmass settles into the area today
through Thursday.

3) A frontal boundary will move across the region this weekend
and bring another chance of precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

The strong cold front has now pushed well east of the area.
Westerly winds gusts of 35 to 45 mph in the wake of the front
will gradually subside into the afternoon. The wind advisory has
been expired, but still some strong gusts at times until around
mid day.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Anomalously deep polar trough across the Ohio Valley this morning,
shears NE through the region thru tonight, with mean troughing
continuing through the week. At the surface, intense low pressure
moves north through Quebec with polar high pressure sinking into the
southern US today and then gradually retreating up the eastern
seaboard through mid week.

Gusty WNW winds will diminish tonight, but no before ushering
in temps Tuesday through Wednesday night running about 10
degrees below normal for mid-March. Windchills in the 30s today
and Wed and into the teens tonight. Gradual moderation for the
end of the week, with temps returning toward normal Thursday,
and perhaps slightly above normal by Friday ahead of approaching
frontal system.

Key Message 3...

A series of frontal systems are likely to approach Friday and
move across the region through this weekend. There remains
inherent timing issues with exactly when the front moves across
the area. Expect at least some chance POPs this weekend, with
rain across the southern half of the CWA and some light snow or
a rain/snow across the northern half as the fronts moves
through.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in through the TAF period.

VFR. Isolated flurries are possible late this afternoon into the
evening, but are not expected to impact vsby at this time.

Gusts diminish to 25-30kt through this afternoon. However an
isolated 40kt gusts can`t be ruled out yet through early this
afternoon. Winds/gusts continue to diminish this evening with
winds veering more WNW. Winds less than 10kt by the Wednesday
morning push.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts to 40kt possible into the early afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Friday-Friday night: VFR during the day, with possible sub VFR in
SHRA at night.

Saturday: Sub VFR and SHRA possible, mainly in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly gales behind the cold front passage will gradually
subside to SCA through this morning. SCA gusts likely on all
water through today, lingering into tonight for the ocean
waters. Ocean seas, mainly in southerly swells, will be slow to
subside below SCA through Wednesday AM.

Sub-SCA conditions then expected for midweek as high pressure
builds over the waters.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...JT/MW
MARINE...NV

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

San Juan, PRHonolulu, HI Lake Charles, LA Pueblo, CO Corpus Christi, TX St. Louis, MO Reno, NV Raleigh, NC  Newport/Morehead City, NC Dodge City, KS Houston/Galveston, TX San Joaquin Valley/Hanford, CA Louisville, KY Fort Worth, TX Pittsburgh, PA Austin/San Antonio, TX Sacramento, CA Jackson, MS Phoenix, AZ Northern Indiana, IN Flagstaff, AZ Tallahassee, FL Springfield, MO Riverton, WY Blacksburg, VA Sioux Falls, SD El Paso Area, NM Columbia, SC Wilmington, NC Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Eureka, CA Midland/Odessa, TX Tucson, AZ Goodland, KS Huntsville, AL Amarillo, TX Norman, OK Lubbock, TX Marquette, MI Little Rock, AR Pendleton, OR Missoula, MT Binghamton, NY Boston, MA Green Bay, WI Billings, MT Baltimore/Washington San Diego, CA Tampa Bay, FL Morristown, TN Twin Cities, MN Brownsville, TX Portland, OR Des Moines, IA Memphis, TN Pocatello, ID San Angelo, TX Jacksonville, FL Aberdeen, SD Quad Cities, IA/IL Charleston, SC New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA Peachtree City, GA Shreveport, LA Grand Rapids, MI Medford, OR Albany, NY Wichita, KS Gray/Portland, ME Spokane, WA Boise, ID Denver/Boulder, CO Great Falls, MT Caribou, ME Key West, FL Miami-South Florida, FL New York City/Upton, NY Melbourne, FL Hastings, NE Paducah, KY Glasgow, MT Bismarck, ND Charleston WV Omaha/Valley, NE Buffalo, NY Jackson, KY Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO Gaylord, MI Cheyenne, WY Grand Forks, ND Detroit/Pontiac, MI Central Illinois, IL Burlington, VT Salt Lake City, UT Topeka, KS Nashville, TN Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI Albuquerque, NM Las Vegas, NV Wakefield, VA La Crosse, WI Birmingham, AL Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA Chicago, IL Seattle, WA Rapid City, SD Indianapolis, IN Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA Mobile/Pensacola State College, PA Cleveland, OH Elko, NV Wilmington, OH Grand Junction, CO North Platte, NE Tulsa, OK San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA Duluth, MN Anchorage, AK Fairbanks, AK Juneau, AK Tiyan, GU

Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.