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969
FXUS61 KOKX 160553
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
153 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPC has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms for Friday. The primary threat will be damaging winds.

The Gale Watches on the ocean waters have been converted to Small
Craft Advisories for Friday, but continue as Gale Watches for
Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong frontal system brings showers late tonight into
Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated
thunderstorms primarily during Friday evening. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible with a squall line that is forecast
to move through.

2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this
weekend along with Gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers and thunderstorm move through late tonight into early Friday
morning in association with an approaching warm front. Thereafter,
the region will be warm sectored with an approaching cold front to
the west, deepening low pressure over northern New
England/southeastern Canada, and a positively tilted upper level
trough approaching from the west. After the passage of the warm
front and ahead of the approaching cold front, winds shift to
the SW and increase somewhat during the afternoon, bringing a
surge of low level moisture, with dew points rising well into
the 60s. Low level convergence along the cold front will allow
for the development of low topped showers and thunderstorms that
approach the western portion of the forecast area as a well
defined squall line (as per most meso scale models) by late
afternoon and early evening hours (anywhere from 5 pm to 7 pm,
give or take an hour). With ample moisture in place, increasing
low level convergence, and MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range,
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly
for western portions of the area (NE NJ and Lower Hudson
Valley). As the line approaches the coast, weakening is
expected. However, even in these locations an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction
Center has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms.

The cold front and weakening squall line should push offshore
between 9 pm and 11 pm, but post frontal rain looks to develop
thereafter, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast for Long
Island and southern CT through most of Friday night, with lesser
chances as you head N and W.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend
along with Gusty NW winds later Friday night into Saturday.

As mixing increases in the column immediately behind the cold front
look for strong, gusty winds behind the front which may last right
through a good portion of the afternoon. Also, behind the front the
coolest weather of the fall is likely for the first half of the
weekend. Daytime highs Saturday will be in the lower and middle 50s
with a gusty NNW wind. Widespread 30s and lower 40s are expected for
lows Saturday night. Some temperature moderation is likely towards
late in the day on Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering a
little into the upper half of the 50s with much lighter winds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal system approaches from the west overnight. The associated
warm front lifts through later this morning, followed by a cold
frontal passage late this afternoon into early evening.

MVFR cigs overspread the area from west to east through 9Z, then
likely lowering to IFR shortly thereafter. Showers also develop and
move through during this time and restrict vsbys.
Showers taper by late morning, but conditions likely remain MVFR
into the afternoon, before possibly improving to VFR for NYC and
LoHud Valley terminals by 18Z. Eastern terminals may follow a short
time later, but it also remains possible they remain MVFR through
the day. A line of showers and thunderstorms moves through with the
frontal passage from 21Z to 01Z Saturday.

SSE flow around 10 kt early this morning veers S then SW into late
morning, with gusts toward 20 developing. Gusts continue into the
afternoon 20-25 kt. After the frontal passage, winds shift W then NW
Friday evening into the overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of changing flight categories this morning and later today
could vary by an hour or two. Amendments likely.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible after 21Z.
Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are possible with any thunderstorm.

Chance of MVFR in showers early Saturday AM.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late tonight: Mainly VFR, possible MVFR -SHRA. NW winds G25kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening.

Sunday-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient decreases overnight with sub advisory
conditions prevailing. However, conditions ramp up during Friday
morning with small craft conditions quickly developing in a
southerly flow, especially for the afternoon when the winds turn
more SW ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes
through across the waters late Friday night with the winds becoming
W, then NW during Saturday morning. Gales over the ocean waters
are looking less likely for Friday into Friday night, and have
converted Gale Watches to Small Craft Advisories for this
period. Gale Watches remain in effect Saturday as there remains
some uncertainty with the winds during this time frame, but
continues to look less likely at this time.

For the non-ocean waters, SCA conditions across the eastern and
central sound, Peconic and Gardiner`s Bays, while the western sound
and harbor look to not reach SCA.

By Friday night, SCA conditions expected all non-ocean waters
lasting through the day Saturday and possibly into the first half of
Saturday night, before subsiding to below SCA conditions.

Small craft conditions will likely linger for much of Saturday night
on the ocean waters before sub advisory conditions return during
Sunday morning. With high pressure building across the waters Sunday
and settling nearby into early next week sub advisory conditions are
expected to prevail.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ331.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ350-353.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
     for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JP