What's Happening In Newington

179
FXUS61 KOKX 091828
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
228 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Heat Advisory has been extended into tomorrow for NYC, most of NE
NJ, Nassauc co., W Suffolk co., Rockland co., Westchester co., S
Fairfield co., and S New Haven co.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong heat continues into tomorrow, but relief is in sight later
this week.

2) A round of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late
tomorrow. Afterwards, we remain dry the remainder of the week except
for Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The remainder of the day will remain dry and warm, with peak heat
indices 95 to 100. A Heat Advisory has been extended into tomorrow
for NYC, most of NE NJ, Nassauc co., W Suffolk co., Rockland co.,
Westchester co., S Fairfield co., and S New Haven co.

A warm front will bring another round of warm, humid air into the
area tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat indices
will range 95 to 100 in areas of the heat advisory. Elsewhere, heat
indices are anticipated to remain below 95.

Following a cold front Monday, cooler air is expected to filter in
with highs in the mid to upper 80s Tue-Thu, then down into the low
80s by Friday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A warm front tomorrow will lead to a warm and unstable airmass over
the area. Then a cold front is anticipated to pass through the area
with shortwave energy aloft late afternoon into the evening,
tomorrow. Ahead of it, PWATs will peak 1.9 to 2.1 inches. With the
aid of lift from the front, a scattered to broken line of showers
and thunderstorms is anticpated to track across the area west to
east from 4 PM to 11 PM. The timing of the front is still somewhat
variable among the availble among available model guidance.

Severe thunderstorms with brief downpours are possible tomorrow. 12Z
model soundings and availble 12Z CAMs have a near-storm environment
of 30 to 45 kt Bulk SHear, SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg (some CAMs up to
4500 J/kg), DCAPE 900-1100 J/kg, and peak 0-3km lapse rated of 8.2
to 9 C/km. Select hodographs also indicates some low-level turning
of winds in the lowest levels.

For now, SPC has expanded a marginal (lvl 1/5) risk for severe
thunderstorms over the western two-thirds of the CWA. This risk
appears reasonable. Although would not be surprised if they up this
chance to a Slight (lvl 2/5) risk if all else holds firm by
tomorrow. The severe risk does appear to be less if the front
arrives too late in the evening, so it will really all hinge on the
timing of the front. The primary risk with these severe storms will
be straight-line damaging winds. Large hail or an isolated tornado
or two can not be ruled out, at this time.

Following today, the remainder of the week is anticipated to stay
dry with only minor shots of any precipitation from passing
shortwaves and fronts. The only good chance for another round of
rainfall after Monday appears to be Wednesday evening into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak trough of low pressure lingers over the terminals this
afternoon before gradually pushing east tonight. A warm front
lifts through during Monday morning.

VFR through Monday morning. Scattered showers and t-storms
become a possiblity towards and after 18-19z Monday with PROB30s
added for the 30 hr TAF sites.

Mainly W winds at 8-13kt for this afternoon with gusts 15-20kt.
Coastal terminals may back more to the SW in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts at KLGA/KEWR/KTEB may be only occasional and end an hour or
two earlier than indicated. Occasional gusts 15-20kt possible at
KJFK this afternoon. Also, there is a low chance of an isolated
t-storm during late this afternoon / early evening, but confidence
of occurrence remains too low to include in TAFs.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon: Mainly VFR. Chance of a brief period of MVFR in
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR. Low probability of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening each day.

Thursday night-Friday: Mostly VFR, with the chance of intervals of
sub VFR in showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the middle of
next week.

Rip Currents: SW flow and associated wind waves will lead to a
moderate rip current risk today. A diminishing swell will result in
a low risk for Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>008-011-
     012.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ079-081.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for NYZ069>075-078-080-
     176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BR