What's Happening In Newington

268
FXUS61 KOKX 131828
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
228 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No notable changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near-record highs expected Tuesday through Thursday with daily
chances for showers and possible thunderstorms.

2) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to near
to slightly below normal Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
After seeing significantly warmer temperatures today, we`ll continue
the trend through Friday. Near-record highs are expected Tuesday
through Thursday, with the warmest day on Wednesday. Even Friday
will continue the well-above average trend in temperatures.

Tue-Thu highs will be in the mid/upper-80s in NE NJ, NYC metro, and
southern sections of the Lower Hudson Valley. A few places touching
90 on Wednesday. Highs become more moderates as you move eastward
and along coastal areas. Long Island and coastal CT will see highs
in the 70s.

All this warm weather is aided in large part by anomalous heights
aloft (500mb heights around 575-580 dam) and 850 mb temps more than
10C above average.

While we have mainly zonal flow aloft, several subtle shortwaves
embedded in the zonal flow will pass to our north through the week`s
end. This will lead to a series of passing weak lows to our north
that bring daily chances for showers this evening through Thursday.

Chances remain quite low on Tuesday but better on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms appear isolated on Tuesday with most instability
situated too far north, but Wednesday seems to have a better shot at
seeing thunderstorms. The latest guidance shows more instability on
Wednesday and given its our warmest day of the week, daytime heating
with help with this. The main issue we have for thunderstorms on
Wednesday is a lack of strong lift.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during
Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is
for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany
the passage, with a chance of thunder as well.
After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold
front passage will return temperatures to near to slightly below
normal Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to slide offshore overnight while a
warm front passes to the north. Low pressure will pass well to
the north later today.

VFR conditions across NYC metros north/west, with KGON still
experiencing MVFR conditions. Clouds should scatter this
afternoon.

SW 10-15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt this afternoon. Peak winds mid
to late afternoon could reach 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt at
KEWR/KLGA/KJFK.

Winds should diminish after 00Z Tue. There could be some patchy
fog late tonight but confidence in this scenario is low attm.

VFR conditions expected on Tuesday with SW winds around 10 kt,
with a sea breeze likely after 16Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled AMD possible to fine tune timing of flight
categories and increase in winds through this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR but with chance of
afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the
NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds
could gusts 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory conditions subside into tonight. First for the
non-ocean waters during the evening, then later at night across the
western ocean. By Tuesday AM sub advisory conditions will prevail
across all waters. Sub-SCA conditions will then remain through
Thursday.

Sub advisory conditions are expected on all the waters Thursday
night through Saturday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 88/1960
KBDR: 81/1960
KNYC: 87/1941
KLGA: 86/1941
KJFK: 80/2006
KISP: 78/2024

Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Tue, April 14:
KEWR: 62/2014
KBDR: 54/2023
KNYC: 70/2023
KLGA: 67/2023
KJFK: 55/2023
KISP: 54/2022

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 60/2023
KBDR: 53/2012
KNYC: 67/1941
KLGA: 64/1941
KJFK: 58/1960
KISP: 56/2023

Thu, April 16:
KEWR: 64/2002
KBDR: 53/2002
KNYC: 69/2002
KLGA: 68/2002
KJFK: 57/2002
KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17:
KEWR: 68/2002
KBDR: 57/2002
KNYC: 74/2002
KLGA: 73/2002
KJFK: 60/2002
KISP: 61/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR/MET
AVIATION...20
MARINE...BR/MET