What's Happening In Newington

823
FXUS61 KOKX 150202
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1002 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added key message 1 to state near term showers and
isolated thunderstorms and the gust front. Aviation discussion
updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) For late this evening, still have showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Gust front ahead of this activity resulting in
gusts up to near 30 kt.

2) Well above normal temperatures through Friday.

3) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly
each afternoon.

4) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to
below normal Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers developing within the region and moving in from the
north. Still some lingering instability with isolated
thunderstorms. A gust front has developed ahead of this activity
with gusts up to near 30 kt. Increased POPs and cloud coverage
with slight adjustments to temperatures.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A large upper level ridge over the East Coast and Western
Atlantic is providing for surface temperatures that are and will
continue to be well above normal through Friday. High pressure
to the southeast is allowing for a generally SW flow advecting
in a warmer airmass that sits over the area this week.

Given the generally ample sunshine expected today through Thursday,
temperatures  quickly rise each morning with overall highs in the
80s expected. Some locations in and around NE NJ and perhaps the NYC
metro may approach 90 degrees each afternoon into Thursday. Highs
closer to the coast will be a bit cooler, generally in the 70s, but
uncertainty in temperatures along the coast remains a bit higher
than normal as temperatures may exceed current forecast highs
depending on subtle shifts in wind direction and speed due to a cold
ocean.

Temperatures generally begin to moderate a bit by Friday given more
cloud cover with highs in the 70s and then even moreso into the
weekend with highs in the 60s.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A stationary front well north of the area will generally the
focus of several weak mid-level disturbances to push east over
the next several days. This should be the main forcing mechanism
for any shower and thunderstorm development. Each day, any
showers or thunderstorms that develop to the north and west may
approach the area into the later afternoon and evening, though
uncertainty as to the coverage remains fairly high, despite a
fair amount of instability for inland areas. The main threats
for any thunderstorms are heavy rainfall but strong to damaging
wind gusts remain possible as well, mainly today and Wednesday.

As the front sags a bit further south late Thursday into Friday,
more showery activity is expected rather than thunderstorms, though
an embedded storm can`t be ruled out.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region
during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference,
consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers
will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well.
After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold
front passage will return temperatures to several degrees below
normal Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Offshore high pressure will remain southeast of the terminals
through the TAF period. Weak low pressure with associated
stationary front to the northwest of the region.

Mainly VFR during the TAF period. Possible MVFR with showers as
well as isolated thunderstorms. Patchy fog possible overnight
with possible IFR/MVFR.

Another round of showers/thunderstorms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon, once again with the best chances north of
NYC.

Winds tonight diminish to near 10kt or less with more of a SW-W
flow. A quick NW gusty wind will be present at some terminals
ahead of the showers and isolated thunderstorms. Gusts forecast
reach near 30 kt for a brief time. Some of the terminals may
go light and variable overnight. Winds become S once again on
Wednesday 10-15kt in the afternoon. Some gusts to near 20kt will
also be possible.

LLWS possible at KGON and KISP tonight, with WSW flow 40-45 kt
at FL020.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of a shower reaching the NYC terminals.

Possible quick gust to 30 kt before 05Z Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night through Friday: Mainly VFR, with chance of
afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the
NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds
could gust 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Easterly winds around 10kt.

Sunday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms, with MVFR conditions
possible. S-SW winds 5-15kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Brief SCA level wind gusts possible with gust front for all
waters.

There may an occasional wave height near 5 feet this evening
but it will be short lived. Otherwise sub-SCA conditions
expected on all the waters through Sunday.

With the passage of a strong cold front Sunday, and
high pressure building in from the west, westerly winds and gusts
increase Sunday night, with SCA conditions developing on the ocean
waters out to 20 nm by late Sunday night, and continuing into
Monday. During Monday west to northwest gusts may reach advisory
levels across the non ocean waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 88/1960
KBDR: 81/1960
KNYC: 87/1941
KLGA: 86/1941
KJFK: 80/2006
KISP: 78/2024

Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Tue, April 14:
KEWR: 62/2014
KBDR: 54/2023
KNYC: 70/2023
KLGA: 67/2023
KJFK: 55/2023
KISP: 54/2022

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 60/2023
KBDR: 53/2012
KNYC: 67/1941
KLGA: 64/1941
KJFK: 58/1960
KISP: 56/2023

Thu, April 16:
KEWR: 64/2002
KBDR: 53/2002
KNYC: 69/2002
KLGA: 68/2002
KJFK: 57/2002
KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17:
KEWR: 68/2002
KBDR: 57/2002
KNYC: 74/2002
KLGA: 73/2002
KJFK: 60/2002
KISP: 61/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/MET/MW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/MET/MW