What's Happening In Newington

085
FXUS61 KOKX 062001
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Brief showers (possibly mixed with wet snow inland) possible
tonight and then again Tuesday afternoon.

2. Unseasonably cool temperatures expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

3. A warming trend begins Thursday with above normal temperatures
Friday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A broad upper trough over the northeastern US will remain in
place through Tuesday. A shortwave within the trough will swing
across the Great Lakes tonight and move across the area on
Tuesday. The shortwave will send a cold front and weak wave of
low pressure through the area late tonight into early Tuesday.

The aforementioned system will support the potential of a few
showers tonight. Some of the coldest locations across the
interior could see some wet snow flakes mixed in with any shower
activity. The showers are expected to be light and no snow is
expected to accumulate due to surface temperatures remaining
above freezing.

There will be a lull in any shower activity after day break Tuesday
as the front and low pressure push offshore. The upper trough axis
will swing across the area in the afternoon. Daytime heating and a
pocket of cold air aloft will steepen lapse rates into the
afternoon. The cyclonic flow in combination with these ingredients
support a isolated shower development. The latest CAMs all signal
this potential in the afternoon. Moisture is limited, but a few
locations could see a brief shower. Dew points will be falling
through the day, so lower wet bulb temperatures could support a few
snow flakes or ice pellets across the interior. It is very possible
that no measurable precip will occur out of these showers, but felt
there was enough evidence to raise PoPs to slight chance across
the area, about 15 percent higher than the NBM PoPs. Any shower
development could produce locally gusty winds due to the dry
subcloud layer, outside of the synoptic wind gusts of 20-30 mph
in the afternoon.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Unseasonably cool temperatures are expected Tuesday through
Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday will be a few degrees below normal
in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Cold advection likely continues
into Tuesday night with temperatures bottoming out in the mid
20s inland and upper 20s and lower 30s closer to the coast.

The growing season has begun across the NYC metro (4/1), but has
not begun elsewhere. Winds may not completely decouple, which
could prevent temperatures from dropping as low as the NBM,
especially if cold advection ends overnight. Temperatures may
also struggle to fall below freezing if winds decouple, since
radiational cooling is not as efficient across the urbanized
areas. Did not sway from the NBM temperature forecast, but have
held off on an issuance of a freeze watch for Tuesday night with
this forecast. Will let subsequent shifts assess temperature
trends with potential need for a frost/freeze headline.

High pressure settles over the area on Wednesday. This will keep
the cool conditions over the Tri-State with high temperatures a
few degrees colder compared to Tuesday due to less mixing. It
should end up slightly warmer Wednesday night in areas where the
Another cold night is in store Wednesday night with lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s.

A warming trend begins on Thursday with temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 50s away from the immediate coast. Onshore
flow will influence temperatures close to the coast where highs
may struggle to reach the low 50s.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The high pressure will move offshore to end the week. Ridging
builds aloft until another shortwave passage early this weekend.
This will send a weak cold front across the region.
Temperatures will be warming to above normal levels Thursday
into Friday. There is a chance temperatures on Saturday could
end up warmer than the NBM, depending on the timing of the cold
front passage. Despite the cold front, temperatures should still
remain above normal on Sunday. Another ridge looks to build
over the east coast early next week with warm temperatures
continuing across the area. Dry conditions expected late week
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure moves across the area tonight
and passes to the east Tuesday morning. A large area of high
pressure over the Midwest will then gradually build into the
area through Wednesday.

Mainly a VFR forecast through the TAF period. There is a low
chance of showers overnight with the best chance across the
terminals north and east of NYC. There could even be a few
flakes mixing in at KSWF and KGON. Brief MVFR possible with
these showers.

Gusty WNW flow this afternoon will quickly diminish toward 00Z.
Coastal locations may for a time veer to the WSW. Weak low
pressure moves across the area tonight with winds likely
becoming light and variable for a time. Behind the low, winds
ramp back up on Tuesday from late morning into the afternoon,
veering from W to NW in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt
expected.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds will become highly variable toward 22Z-00Z, decreasing to
under 10 kt.

Isolated shower possible overnight.

Gust ending timing time this evening may vary by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon/Night : VFR. NW winds G25-30kt, gradually
diminish overnight.

Wednesday-Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas around 5 ft remain possible through early this evening
on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet. The SCA remains in effect
until 6pm. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels tonight.

Marginal SCA gusts are possible on the ocean, NY Harbor, and
western Sound Tuesday afternoon. Think they will be occasional,
so have continued with no SCA for now on Tuesday. Seas should
remain below 5 ft.

High pressure Wednesday and Thursday will lead to a weak
pressure gradient and winds and seas below Advisory levels.
Ocean seas could build close to 5 ft Friday into Saturday with
an in creasing return flow as the high moves offshore.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS