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215
FXUS61 KOKX 201433
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for Aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry and breezy conditions expected through the week as a
nor`easter slowly passes well south and east of the region.

2) Minor coastal flooding possible during high tide Wednesday
evening into Thursday for south shore back bays of Nassau and
portions of Great South Bay.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure/nor`easter will continue to meander off the Outer
Banks of North Carolina today and then slowly move in a general
NE direction through the end of the week. The system is cutoff
from the northern stream and blocked to its northwest from
strong high pressure, so movement will be slow for the next few
days before a northern stream trough picks up the low and sends
it well offshore late Thursday into Friday and the weekend.

Only minimal impacts are expected as the system will remain far
enough offshore. Gusty N-NNE flow will be the main story
through mid week, strongest at the coast and on
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Peak gusts today may reach 25-30 mph,
especially along the immediate coast. For Wednesday into
Wednesday night, wind gusts 25-35 mph are expected across Long
Island with a low chance of a few gusts reaching 40 mph along
the immediate southeast coast/east end. Breezy conditions will
continue on Thursday, but the magnitude of the gusts should be
weaker and generally around 20-25 mph.

Mainly dry conditions expected through the week with a slight
chance of a few showers reaching the forks of Long Island late
Wednesday and Wednesday night, which is when the low will be at
its closest approach (still several hundred miles offshore).

High pressure reestablishes itself late week into the weekend.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal except for Thursday
where temperatures briefly may rise into the mid 60s for many spots,
which is slightly above normal.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Astronomical tides remain low much of the week, but
persistent N-NE flow should start bringing a rise in tide
levels through Wednesday. Persistent swells from the offshore
system may also bring tidal piling and potentially some minor
beach erosion.

No concerns for any coastal flooding today and water levels
should remain below minor benchmarks with the Wednesday morning
high tide. The Wednesday evening tide cycle currently has the
highest potential for minor coastal flooding across the most
vulnerable locations of the south shore back bays in Nassau and
across the western Great South Bay. Guidance has shown a slight
downward trend with tide levels for these locations, but there
still is a fair amount of spread. Coastal flood statements or
advisories may eventually be needed for these locations. Water
levels in portions of the lower NY Harbor could come close to
minor benchmarks, but look to fall just short. Elsewhere, no
coastal flooding is anticipated with Wednesday evening high
tide.

Most locations should remain below benchmarks on Thursday, but
will have to monitor observational trends at Lindenhurst and
potentially Freeport where tidal piling could limit how much
water moves out of the bays. Additional statements or
advisories are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The area will remain between high pressure to the N and low
pressure to the S and E this week.

VFR thru the TAF period.

Increasing N-NE winds should lock in around 010-020 true and
increase with gusts up to 25kt through the day. This flow
continues through the rest of the TAF period, with perhaps a
brief, slight lessening in spots this evening but picking back
up after midnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected. Gusts may become more occasional
this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. NE winds G20-30kt, highest near the coast.

Thursday and Friday: VFR. N winds G15-20kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will continue building through the day as low
pressure/nor`easter meanders off the Outer Banks of North
Carolina. The low will slowly track NE through the week, but
will bring gales to much of the ocean waters tonight into at
least Wednesday and SCA conditions elsewhere. Have extended the
Gale Warning through Wednesday early evening and also added the
nearshore ocean from Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet tonight
through Wednesday. Uncertainty increases Wednesday night, but
there is potential for gales to persist on the nearshore and
offshore ocean zones into Thursday morning. Have held off on any
further extension. SCA conditions will otherwise persist
through the end of the week and first half of the weekend on the
ocean.

Seas will build to 8 to 14 ft on the ocean through Wednesday
with potential of 3-5 ft seas on the Sound, highest across
Eastern Sound due to swells. Seas will then gradually subside
later Thursday into Friday, but may not fall below 5 ft until
sometime on Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     340-345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ335-338.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-380-383-385.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DS