What's Happening In Newington

571
FXUS61 KOKX 070244
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory extended into Saturday for NE NJ, NYC metro, and
Long Island

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Very warm and very humid through Saturday. Continued very
warm but likely with lower humidity Sunday and Monday. possibly
lingering into early next week.

2. Potential for scattered afternoon/evening heavy downpours and
thunderstorms through Saturday, presenting a threat for isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding and strong to severe
thunderstorm winds, particularly for NYC and points N&W.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An anomalously strong subtropical ridge will gradually break
down Friday into the weekend as the westerlies once again drop
back into the area.

Deep SSW flow from Gulf/Sub-tropic origin will continue a very
warm and more notably a very humid airmass across the region
thru Saturday.

Daytime highs will run 3 to 6 degrees above normal, well below
records, but the high humidity (mid to upper 70s Tds) will make it
feel quite uncomfortable. Heat index values thru Saturday will get
solidly into heat advisory criteria. Max heat index values on Friday
in the upper 90s to 104 across much of the area, except mid 90s
across far southern and eastern coasts. Localized spots may touch
105F, but not enough coverage for this late summer event to
issue an extreme heat warning.

With approaching shortwave on Saturday, perhaps more in the way
of convective debris, and some subtle indication of Tds being
slightly lower (lower to mid 70s). This appears to have heat
indices slightly lower in the mid 90s to lower 100s for NYC, NJ
metro, and LI, with lower to mid 90s interior. Enough confidence
in another day of mid 90 heat indices to extend the heat
advisory into NYC, NE NJ, and LI at this point.

Better signal for lowering TDs (upper 60s/lower 70s) for Sunday
into Monday in wake of a weak cold front. So although temps
will likely remain very warm in the upper 80s/lower 90s, HI`s
will likely fall back into the lower 90s to 95. Heat advisories
may need to be extended for NE NJ and NYC Metro, but marginal
at this point.

Heat indices may perk back up into the mid to upper 90s on
Tuesday ahead of next approaching series of northern stream
shortwaves and cold front, before a general signal for a cool
down to more seasonable temps for middle of next week.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

This aft/eve forcing and focus for scattered downpours/tstms is
expected to be focused NW of NYC metro ahead of approaching weak
surface trough in a highly unstable, very moist, weak to
marginal deep layer shear environment. Weakening convection
could possibly drifts east into the NYC metro and surrounding
late this evening. This will present an isolated flash flood and
wet microburst threat, primarily N&W of NYC into this evening.

Subtropical ridge breaks down Friday into Saturday, as a series
of shortwaves approach and then cross the region around large
central Canada closed low.

These shortwave will provide better forcing for more widespread
aft/eve convection Friday and possibly Saturday in a similar highly
unstable, very moist, weak to marginal deep layer shear
environment. Good signal on the CAMs for iso-sct convective
initiation by early Fri afternoon along coastal seabreeze, with
perhaps a more organized line developing across central/eastern
PA/NY working into the region late afternoon/evening. With low
MBE vectors magnitudes and high PWATS, potential for 2+"
rainfall rates and iso-sct flash flooding exists. In addition an
iso-sct pulse strong to severe threat in the high CAPE weak
shear environment, particularly in late afternoon/evening with
any more organized approaching convection.

A similar threat is possible for Saturday aft/eve, although
some uncertainty on exact timing of shortwave energy and cold
front with peak diurnal instability. This will be refined the
next 24 hours with high-res model trends.

Threat for convection looks limited on Sunday in wake of weak
cold frontal passage bringing in a drier and weakly unstable
airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the western Atlantic through the
TAF period with a frontal boundary lingering to the west.

Mainly VFR through the taf period. There is a chance for MVFR or
lower conditions late tonight into early Friday morning across Long
Island and southern CT terminals.

A few showers and thunderstorms developed over the last hour or
so and moved across some of the terminals, mainly across the NYC
terminals and points north and west. These showers have begun to
dissipate and should be gone in the next hour or so. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon
and evening with PROB30s included in the TAFs at this time.

S-SSW winds around 10 kt early this evening. Winds will weaken
tonight as they veer to the SW, becoming light and/or variable
overnight. A light W-NW flow develops after sunrise Friday
before gradually becoming SW around 10 kt late morning into the
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... TSRA may
remain north and west of EWR and TEB this afternoon and evening.

Low probability of an isolated shower or thunderstorm impacting
the NYC terminals this evening.

Adjustments possible to the timing of potential TSRA Friday
afternoon and evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms activity may linger
into Friday night.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low probability for showers thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Low probability for showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening N and W of NYC terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A persistent SW flow of 10 to 15 kt with gusts up 20 kt on the
ocean waters each late afternoon and evening through Sat.
Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible near entrance to NY Harbor
with coastal jet formation each late afternoon/evening, which
could have ocean seas building to 3-5 ft during these times.

Rip Currents: Persistent SW flow and associated wind waves will
lead to a moderate rip current risk today thru Saturday. Potential
for rip current risk to increase to high late afternoon and
evening today and Friday with coastal jet development and
increase in breaking waves to 3 to 4 ft, particularly for NYC
and western LI beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ005>012.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
     CTZ007>012.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ067>071.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ072>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...NV