What's Happening In Newington

838
FXUS61 KOKX 140712
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
312 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather through Friday with a slow moving area of
low pressure over southern New England. Potential for moderate
to locally heavy downpours and isolated thunderstorms today.

2) Unseasonably warm this weekend into next week. Cold water
safety concerns for this weekend with good boating weather, and
water temps still in the lower 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An amplifying upper trough over the Northeast will close off
into an upper low that will slowly work east through Friday. At
the leading edge, a surface cold front will work across the area
today with a triple point low forming in close proximity. The
latter will work slowly east in tandem with the upper low.

A north-south band of showers will work across the area this
morning. There is little instability so any thunder should be
isolated in nature. PW values around an inch ahead of the cold
front along with deep-layerd lift will result in some moderate
to locally heavy rainfall rates. Hourly rainfall rates could
approach 0.50"/hr, but generally less than that. There are no
flooding concerns outside of some ponding on area roadways.

Latest CAMs support the initial band of showers moving into the
area early this morning dissipating, but then redeveloping to
the south and working mainly across LI and CT. This is largely
due to better instability and deeper lift as the upper trough
begins to take on a slight negative tilt. The back edge of the
highest rain probabilities will likely need to be refined. Showers
may be more scattered in nature for NYC and points north and
west.

Rainfall amounts are forecast to average between 0.25 to 0.50
inches across the forecast area. Localized higher amounts are
possible. The higher end of the totals should be focused east of
the Hudson River. The steadiest rain should be east of the area
by early this evening.

Widely scattered to scattered showers will linger into tonight
and Friday as the upper low works slowly east and offshore.

The high temperature forecast is a bit tricky as the NBM5.0
continues to look too warm, especially near the coast. Have
generally adjusted it downward for high temps a few degrees.
Much of the guidance outside of the NBM doesn`t support as warm
of temperatures.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Pattern change coming up for this weekend into next week. Once the
trough shifts east, flow becomes zonal with an eventual ridge
building in. Once again, the  high temperature forecast is a
bit tricky as the NBM5.0 continues to look too warm, especially
near the coast. Have generally adjusted it downward for high
temps a few degrees Saturday and Sunday. In addition, some
cloud cover and an isolated shower Sunday with a weak cold
frontal passage also favor a slightly cooler forecast.

While temperatures this weekend will likely get into the 70s
Saturday and the 80s Sunday, dewpoints stay down in the 40s and
50s. This will give the air a more comfortable feel.

Additionally, there are cold water safety concerns this weekend
as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water
temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical
incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone
going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan
accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. A
Marine Weather Statement will likely be issued at the end of
this week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front moves across the region today with low pressure
developing along it. Both the front and the low moves east of
the terminals this evening.

Initially VFR conditions but expecting MVFR and IFR conditions
for much of the TAF period, as showers continue to spread
across the region. Localized LIFR will be possible.

Periodic showers continue through much of the day becoming
more intermittent this afternoon. A few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible but probability too low to include in TAFs at
the moment. Improvement is forecast to MVFR and VFR for all
terminals by late afternoon to early evening except for KGON.

Southerly winds will gradually diminish this morning becoming
variable 5 kts or less. Winds eventually becoming NW-W flow
near 5-10 kt in the afternoon for all terminals except KGON.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR and IFR might be 1-2 hours delayed compared to TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: A chance of showers with possible MVFR. Otherwise
VFR.

Friday: A chance of showers with MVFR or lower conditions possible,
mainly early.

Saturday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with
brief MVFR or lower conditions possible.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure deepening over the western Atlantic today and
heading up into the Canadian Maritimes Friday, will produce a
building easterly across the ocean waters tonight into Friday. A
SCA for hazardous seas in possible during this time, mainly
east of Fire Island Inlet. Confidence is not high enough to
issue at this time.

Conditions thereafter generally remain under SCA criteria.

There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water
temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water
temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical
incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone
going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan
accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. A
Marine Weather Statement will likely be issued at the end of
this week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW