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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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119 FXUS61 KOKX 020234 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 934 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A wintry mix precipitation event is more certain for Tuesday. 2) Generally wet conditions and above normal temperatures mid week through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold airmass will be retreating late Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure moves off the northeast coast and a weak return flow sets up. A weak frontal system will then impact the region for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A warm front will be slowly approaching from the south Monday night into Tuesday as the associated surface low tracks through the central United States. A warm advection overrunning precipitation events is becoming more certain beginning Tuesday morning. However, there are uncertainties with the movement of the warm front as high pressure slowly retreats off the northeast coast. At this time thermal profiles are indicating mainly a rain/snow mix with the possibility of some sleet as the precipitation begins early Tuesday morning. A transition to plain rain will occur during Tuesday from south to north, with the timing dependent on the warm air moving into the region. There may be a very brief period of light freezing rain Tuesday morning, and this is more likely across the far interior as weak cold air damming will keep surface temperatures below freezing. If a prolonged period of freezing rain becomes more likely inland there is a chance that winter weather advisories would be needed. By late in the day all areas are expected to have transitioned to plain rain. Rain continues into Tuesday night as a wave of low pressure then tracks along the warm frontal boundary near or over the region. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Another wave of low pressure moves in quickly behind the previous one as early as Wednesday evening. Continued differences in location and timing have led to a prolonged period of PoPs in the forecast. While PoPs extend mid week through the weekend, a washout is not expected. All precipitation is expected to fall as rain. There is a bit of a stronger signal now in some of the guidance that this wave will run into high pressure trying to nose down from the northeast. While this will likely cause some ptype concerns well north of our area, we are expected to remain all plain rain in our area. This pattern will lead to several days of above normal temperatures. Forecast highs next weekend are forecast to be in the 60s for portions of northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley, while the cooler flow off the waters keeps LI and coastal areas in the upper 40s lower 50s. Elsewhere mid to upper 50s are expected. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR as high pressure builds into the area. N flow 10 kt or less overnight. SSE sea breeze around 5 or so knots tomorrow occurs between 17Z-21Z. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming plain rain from south to north during the afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday: Chance of rain with MVFR or lower cond. Friday: Chance of rain with MVFR or lower cond, mainly in the morning at most terminals. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure will remain in control through Monday night, then a weak wave of low pressure will impact the area beginning Tuesday. Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels on the forecast waters through Tuesday night. However, with a prolonged period of southwesterly winds ocean seas east of Moriches Inlet may approach 5 feet by late Tuesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on the ocean waters with 5ft waves at the end of the week into the weekend. Otherwise, with generally a weak pressure gradient over the area, all other waters will fall below SCA criteria. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC/MET AVIATION...BR MARINE...JC |
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