What's Happening In Newington

966
FXUS61 KOKX 311103
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
603 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold Weather Advisories now include late tonight into Sunday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold temperatures combined with increasing winds expected to
produce wind chills within advisory levels late tonight into Sunday
morning. Winds expected to remain below advisory levels.

2) Minor tidal flooding possible Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Wind chills through this morning may be just short advisory criteria
in some areas, but no plans to cancel it at this time. For tonight
into Sunday morning, models are in better agreement regarding low
temperatures. The cold temperatures combined with increasing
northerly winds are expected to produce wind chills across the
forecast area to be within or at least close to advisory thresholds
once again. Cold Weather Advisories have therefore extended to
address late tonight into mid-Sunday morning. The cold wind chills
could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

The strongest winds associated with a strengthening storm well
offshore would appear to be Sunday morning into early afternoon.
Coastal areas likely see gusts 30-40 mph during this time. A few
gusts to 45 mph are possible as well, but confidence continues to
increase that a wind advisory will not be necessary.

Any snow that clips eastern Long Island late tonight into Sunday
morning would not have much, if any, impact.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of spring tides and deep offshore low pres may
result in periods of minor tidal flooding starting with the Sun mrng
high tide cycle, lasting into Mon. The modeling has been consistent
keeping the threat in the minor category, especially since
confidence has increased in winds lacking an ely component thru the
period. Statements or advisories may be needed, however, the extent
of the ice on area waters may be a significant limiting factor.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the region weakens this afternoon into
tonight. An area of low pressure moves northward along the coast
tonight and out to sea on Sunday.

VFR.

NW flow less than 10 kt early this mrng. Winds become more
northerly aft 12z, under 10 kt, increasing to 10 to around 15
kt this evening into the overnight. Wind gusts increase aft 6Z
Sun to 25-30kt, lasting thru the day.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Flow may be vrb at times JFK and LGA thru 14Z.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: Mainly VFR. There is a chance for some MVFR or lower
conditions along with a chance of light snow. Best chances will
be from KGON to KISP and eastward. Northerly wind gusts 30-35
kt, with the highest gusts along the coast and east of the NYC
terminals.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Chance of reduced visibility in light snow late into
Wednesday night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds increase late tonight into Sunday with a
strengthening storm well offshore. Freezing spray advisories have
been posted for the ocean waters and LI Sound this evening through
early Sunday afternoon. Have now upgraded to a Gale Warning for all
waters for late tonight through Sunday, and for the ocean, this
includes the first half of Sunday night. Advisory conditions then
follow through Monday for most of the waters with diminishing winds.
Seas on the ocean probably are still elevated into Monday night, but
sub-advisory conditions for all waters finally occurs Tuesday
morning. A weak pressure gradient then sustains relatively tranquil
conditions through the mid-week period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC