What's Happening In Newington

343
FXUS61 KOKX 071430
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Hot and humid conditions persist through at least Saturday.
Continued heat but likely with lower humidity Sunday and
Monday, possibly lingering into early next week.

2. Potential for scattered afternoon/evening heavy downpours and
thunderstorms through Saturday, presenting a threat for isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding and strong to severe
thunderstorm winds, particularly for NYC and points N&W.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An anomalously strong subtropical ridge will gradually break
down into the weekend as the westerlies once again drop back
into the area.

Deep SSW flow from Gulf/Sub-tropic origin will continue a very
warm and more notably a very humid airmass across the region
through at least Saturday.

Daytime highs will run 3 to 7 degrees above normal, well below
records, but the high humidity (mid to upper 70s Tds) will make
it feel quite uncomfortable. Heat index values today will get
solidly into heat advisory criteria. Max heat index values today
in the upper 90s to 104 across much of the area, except mid 90s
across the immediate southern and eastern coasts.

With approaching shortwave on Saturday, perhaps more in the way
of convective debris, and some subtle indication of Tds being
slightly lower (lower to mid 70s). This appears to have heat
indices slightly lower in the mid 90s to lower 100s for NYC, NJ
metro, and LI, with lower to mid 90s interior. Enough confidence
in another day of mid 90 heat indices to extend the heat
advisory into NYC, NE NJ, and LI at this point. The heat
advisory may need to be extended into Saturday for interior
areas as well if confidence in higher heat indices persists.

Better signal for lowering TDs (upper 60s/lower 70s) for Sunday
into Monday in wake of a weak cold front. So although temps
will likely remain very warm in the upper 80s/lower 90s, HI`s
will likely fall back into the lower 90s to 95. Heat advisories
may need to be extended for NE NJ and NYC Metro, but marginal
at this point.

Heat indices may perk back up into the mid to upper 90s on
Tuesday ahead of next approaching series of northern stream
shortwaves and cold front, before a general signal for a cool
down to more seasonable temps for middle of next week.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

The subtropical ridge breaks down today into Saturday, as a
series of shortwaves approach and then cross the region around
large central Canada closed low.

These shortwave will provide better forcing for more widespread
aft/eve convection today and possibly Saturday in a similar
highly unstable, very moist, weak to marginal deep layer shear
environment. Good signal on the CAMs for iso-sct convective
initiation by early afternoon along coastal seabreeze, with
perhaps a more organized line developing across central/eastern
PA/NY working into the region late afternoon/evening. With low
MBE vectors magnitudes and high PWATS, potential for 2+"
rainfall rates and iso-sct flash flooding exists. In addition,
despite generally weak shear over the area, high instability
given the heat and humidity will provide for a potential for any
pulse-like convection to produce localized downbursts. The threat
for strong to damaging winds is slightly increased if convection
is able to organize. As a result, SPC has expanded and increased
the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
with NYC, NE NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley now in a slight risk
for severe thunderstorm development and a marginal risk expanded
about 1 county eastward through the CWA, generally through western
CT and central LI.

A similar threat is possible for Saturday aft/eve, although
some uncertainty on exact timing of shortwave energy and cold
front with peak diurnal instability. This will be refined the
next 24 hours with high-res model trends.

Threat for convection looks limited on Sunday in wake of weak
cold frontal passage bringing in a drier and weakly unstable
airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary across
the region into Saturday.

Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening. The highest chances are for the terminals in the
vicinity of the NYC metro on NW. Current timing looks to be from 19z
through 02z. MVFR or lower possible in this activity and there may
also be a brief wind shift to the W or NW and gusts in excess of 35
kt in the strongest storms.

Conditions should remain VFR tonight although there is a chance for
some MVFR at some outlying terminals overnight. Confidence is not
high enough to include in the TAF at this time.

Light winds to start will become W-SW into the early afternoon.
Coastal terminals will become S with afternoon sea breeze
enhancement. Wind speeds around 10 kt are expected this afternoon.
Winds will weaken outside of showers/storms this evening, shifting
to the SW and then likely VRB overnight. SW winds increase on
Saturday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for TSRA timing this afternoon and evening.
There is a chance for a popup shower/storm an hour or two before the
TEMPO indicated in TAF.

PROB30 for TSRA 00-02z could end up just SHRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low probability for showers thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Low probability for showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening N and W of NYC terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A persistent SW flow of 10 to 15 kt with gusts up 20 kt on the
ocean waters each late afternoon and evening through Sat.
Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible near entrance to NY Harbor
with coastal jet formation each late afternoon/evening, which
could have ocean seas building to 3-5 ft during these times.

Rip Currents: Persistent SW flow and associated wind waves will
lead to a moderate rip current risk today and Saturday.
Potential for rip current risk to increase to high late
afternoon and evening today with coastal jet development and
increase in breaking waves to 3 to 4 ft, particularly for NYC
and western LI beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ007>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>071.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ072>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MW