What's Happening In Newington

467
FXUS61 KOKX 251939
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
339 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a
cold frontal passage Wednesday night.

2) High risk of rip currents through this evening.

3) Cooler, more seasonable air arrives for end of the week into
the weekend with a chance of showers Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Subtrop ridge will remain anchored over the western Atlantic,
while northern branch energy carves out an upper trough by
midweek. The latter of which will send a cold front through the
area late Wednesday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Before then though, warmer air will gradually work in from the
SW with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday, then up
into the mid and upper 80s from NYC and points north and west
for Wednesday. NBM box whisker plots show quite a range across
the area between the 25th and 75th percentiles for Wednesday,
about 10 degrees or so. Overall, guidance is in good agreement
with a cold frontal passage late afternoon/early evening
Wednesday. The uncertainty is likely due to high clouds across
the area and how much they will limit heating. Typically, with a
veering wind profile (SW to W) ahead of the front, we usually
maximize the warmup on these days. Thus, leaned toward the
warmer side of the guidance and above the NBM deterministic for
Wednesday.

Additionally, with some marginal instability and lift from the
amplifying upper trough across the Northeast, have added a
mention of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the
cold front Wednesday afternoon/evening. The aforementioned high
clouds and dry air could be limiting factors, thus have kept
the coverage isolated to widely scattered at this time.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A high risk of rip currents will continue into this evening due
to a 4 to 5 ft ESE swell. With the swell gradually lowering
into Tuesday and a weak SW flow, the risk is expected to lower
to moderate.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Cooler, more seasonable air arrives for the end of the week
into the weekend. There could be scattered low- topped
convection Thursday into Friday with the upper trough overhead.
The 12Z ECMWF and GFS both then have a compact upper low moving
across the Northeast Friday night. Both place a more organized
area of showers to the north and east of the area. However, the
Canadian is more westward solution.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in tonight and will remain in control
through Tuesday.

Improving conditions to VFR are expected for the rest of the
afternoon. Mainly VFR tonight except for outlying terminals
where MVFR-IFR visibilities are possible. VFR on Tuesday.

SW-W winds 5-10 kt this afternoon will weaken this evening,
before becoming light and variable overnight. A light NE flow
Tuesday morning shifts to the S 10 kt or less Tuesday afternoon.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance for MVFR visibilities 06z-12z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday PM: VFR.

Wednesday-Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening
showers.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers, mainly in the
afternoon and evening. NW wind gusts 20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters
due to lingering 5 to 6 ft seas. This will taper off from west
to east tonight.

A Marine Weather Statement remains in effect for cold water
safety concerns today. While air temperatures will warm into the
70s with gradual clearing, water temperatures remain in the
50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia
and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the
water.

Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected Tuesday through
the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DW