Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
047 FXUS61 KOKX 301433 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1033 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 15Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Slow moving low pressure will continue to produce intermittent showers and thunderstorms today, but the overall flood risk has lowered. 2) After drier weather to the start of the weekend, conditions turn unsettled once again early next week as another low pressure system impacts the region. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... An anomalously deep trough for late July over the Northeast gradually weakens through tonight as associated low pressure meanders east toward coastal New England. The cold pool overhead, cyclonic flow, and additional forcing from energy rotating around the low will continue to instigate scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms through the afternoon, before diminishing this evening. PWATs have lowered from their peak on Wednesday, now sitting just above 1.5 inches, which could still lead to locally heavy downpours. Given the wet antecedent conditions, any heavier or persistent shower could produce localized and brief nuisance flooding, but the overall flood threat has lowered from Wednesday, and the flash flood risk from this activity is low. WPC highlights eastern S CT in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, where coverage of showers is likely to be highest. Expect extensive cloud cover otherwise, while will continue to help mute daytime temperatures. Forecast highs this afternoon are in the mid to upper 70s for most, about 5 to 10 degrees lower than climo. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Heights climb on Friday as the weakening trough lifts east and offshore and ridging builds in. Surface high pressure slides in from the Midwest, helping to briefly calm conditions locally. Temperatures return into the lower 80s across most of the region Friday afternoon. Absent a few isolated diurnal showers or thunderstorms, mainly in S CT, dry conditions prevail. The reprieve is short-lived as the next shortwave dives south from the Northern Plains, instigating low pressure that drives east toward the region by the end of the weekend. Moisture streams in with deep southwest flow Sunday, and PWATs are progged to climb above 2 inches by Sunday night into Monday. WPC offers a marginal risk into the LoHud Valley Sunday, and across the forecast area on Monday. Still some uncertainty with the ultimate evolution of the upper pattern, but given the high moisture content and potential for multiple rounds, will need to continue to monitor this period. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure slowly pulls away from the terminals today. Mainly MVFR through most of the day today. IFR or lower is possible in any showers. Gradual improvement to VFR will occur late this afternoon and into this evening. An isolated shower or thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out but not enough confidence on coverage to include in the TAF. Winds will become northerly through the day, increasing after 12Z to around 10 kt with G15-20kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments are highly likely for wind direction and timing of flight category changes. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR. An isolated shower is possible early. Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm NW of the NYC terminals. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR, chance of an afternoon shower or tstm. Monday: Mainly VFR, chance of showers and thunderstorms. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Seas have largely lowered under 5 ft on the coastal ocean waters and the SCA that was in effect for waters east of Moriches Inlet has been cancelled. Sub SCA conditions are expected Friday and Saturday with high pressure in place. The next low pressure system approaches on Sunday, moving through early next week. This could bring a return to SCA conditions on the ocean waters by Monday. Rip Currents... There is a moderate risk for rip currents at all local ocean beaches today. An offshore N wind, with SSE swells 3 to 4 ft at an 8 sec period drive this risk. The risk remains moderate on Friday. Winds turn more onshore during the afternoon, though speeds lighten and swells begin to lower. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION...BC MARINE...DR |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.