What's Happening In Newington

994
FXUS61 KOKX 090810
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
410 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added potential for areas of fog tonight into early Sunday
morning, especially for Long Island and southern Connecticut.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A round of wet weather today into this evening, then fog
tonight into early Sunday morning.


2. Another round of rain from late Sunday afternoon into a
portion of Monday.

3. Unsettled weather expected from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A broad upper trough across central/eastern Canada down into the
Midwest and Northeast US will send developing low pressure
across the Great Lakes and into nearby Ontario/Quebec, sending
a warm front across the area this morning with warm advection
showers especially NW of NYC.

Widespread showers will then overspread the area from west to
east this afternoon. A mid level shortwave trough interacting
with a southerly LLJ will provide most of the lift. With some
weak elevated instability, tstms are possible from the NYC metro
area east into Long Island and southern CT, with the greatest
chances for NYC and western Long Island late today into early
this evening. Rainfall totals of 1/2 to 3/4 inch now expected
for NYC, Long Island, and coastal CT, with 1/4 to 1/2 inch most
elsewhere, and only 1/10 to 1/4 inch well NW of NYC.

Showers should end late today across the lower Hudson Valley and
this evening farther south/east, possibly hanging on until
midnight across the forks of Long Island and far SE CT.
Confidence is higher for fog development tonight into early
Sunday morning after the rain ends, especially for Long Island
and southern CT, where the fog could become locally dense late
tonight.

Highs today will be well below normal NW of NYC and a few
degrees below normal most elsewhere, with cloudy skies and S
winds gusting up to 25 mph this afternoon across Long Island and
in the NYC metro area, and 15-20 mph farther inland.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Sunday morning and early afternoon looks to be mostly dry
between systems as a cold front approaches from the west,
Scattered showers are possible from mid to late afternoon from
NYC north/west. A more organized rainfall event is then expected
Sunday night into Monday as an amplifying upper trough sends
the cold front across, with one or more weak frontal waves
passing well to the south and east. Another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of
beneficial rainfall is expected, with lesser amounts of 1/10 to
1/4 inch NW of NYC.

NBM is catching up or even surpassing MOS temp trends. Lows
tonight will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s, then rise to
the mid/upper 70s on Sunday away from south facing shores where
upper 60s/lower 70s are more likely.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Low pressure over the Northern Plains on Tue will dive SE toward
the Great Lakes Tue night into Wed, then continue into the
Northeast or Mid Atlantic Wed night into Thu, passing off the
Mid Atlantic coast Thu night. This low should then head slowly
E-NE through the rest of the forecast period, with some
slow strengthening. Showers associated with the low will move
into the area Wed into Wed night, with likely PoP for Wed night
into Thu. As the low lingers, with chance PoP for Thu night into
Fri as forecast certainty decreases on the exact low track and
impact on the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Multiple weak disturbances will pass through the region as high
pressure remains to the south. A warm front develops and moves
through early Saturday.

VFR initially tonight with chances of MVFR Saturday, eventually
becoming more likely in the afternoon. Rain showers will
become more probable for KSWF and KBDR terminals late tonight
and for all area terminals on Saturday, eventually becoming
widespread in the afternoon. Also, there will be a slight chance
of an embedded thunderstorm, but probabilities and confidence
too low at this time to include in the TAFs. IFR or lower
conditions then become likely by 0-3Z Sunday with low stratus
and a possible visibility restriction with fog development.

Winds generally SW to NW in the 5-10 kt range with some
terminals near 5 kts or less with more variable direction for
tonight. On Saturday, southerly winds increase to near 10-15 kt
with potential for some gusts around 20 kt, especially towards
KISP.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible to refine timing of rain showers and MVFR
Saturday.

Conditions could very well fluctuate between MVFR and VFR
Saturday.

Occasional gusts 20-25 kt possible Saturday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday late night: Patchy fog develops late. Mainly MVFR to
IFR. LIFR possible.

Sunday: Patchy fog early with MVFR/IFR, possible LIFR.
Conditions then improve to VFR before another chance of showers
late day with a chance of MVFR as well. MVFR or lower more
likely at night with showers becoming widespread.

Monday: Showers with MVFR or lower conditions, tapering off
during the late afternoon and evening.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with MVFR or lower conditions with
increasing chances of showers afternoon into night. Showers
become likely Wednesday night. S winds G15-20kt. Gusts diminish
at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
S winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on the
ocean and the Long Island south shore bays after a warm frontal
passage this morning, with ocean seas building to 5 or 6 ft as
well. Cancelled SCA for the eastern Sound and bays as peak wind
gusts there should remain under 25 kt. Some 5-ft seas should
linger into this evening on the ocean.

Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria thereafter into
Wed morning. Increasing S winds on Wed could bring minimal SCA
cond to the ocean waters Wed afternoon/evening, especially from
Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, with gusts up to 25 kt and
seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BG
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BG