What's Happening In Newington

214
FXUS61 KOKX 090302
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1102 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A round of wet weather Saturday and Saturday evening.

2. Mainly dry on Sunday, followed by another round of rain
Sunday night into a portion of Monday.

3. Unsettled weather expected toward mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A broad upper trough across the NE quarter of the country will
send developing low pressure across the Great Lakes tonight
into Saturday, sending a warm front across the area in the
morning before washing out. There will be a chance of warm
advection showers tonight, with the best chance and greatest
coverage across western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley.
Widespread showers on Saturday will then overspread the area
from west to east, likely not reaching LI and southern CT until
afternoon. A mid level shortwave trough interacting with a
southerly low-level jet will provide the brunt of the lift.
Additionally, with some weak elevated instability, an isolated
thunderstorm is a possibility. Best chance will be at the coast.
Rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.50 inches can be expected across
the area. Rain ends by early evening for most locations with the
possible exception of eastern LI and SE CT.

Also, added in some patchy fog for Saturday night. MOS is
aggressive at some locations. Confidence is low at this time.

Highs Saturday will top out near or just below normal with
mostly cloudy skies and southerly winds gusting up to 20 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Sunday looks to be mainly dry between systems as a cold front
approaches from the west, There is a chance for scattered
showers late in the day, mainly north and west of NYC. A more
organized rainfall event is then expected Sunday night into
Monday as an amplifying upper trough sends the cold front
across the area with a frontal wave passing to the south and
east. Another half inch of well-needed rainfall is expected at
this time. The system is trending more progressive with less
rainfall across the interior.

NBMv5 looks too cool Saturday night (warm sector) and too warm
Sunday based on trends and what is being shown in both raw
consenus and MOS. For lows, went warmer in the lower to mid 50s,
and for highs, 70 to 75. Weighted in some CONSALL. Sunday could
be a bit tricky based on how quickly cloud cover increases
ahead of the approaching frontal system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Low pressure over the Northern Plains region on Tuesday is
expected to dive south over the southern Great Lakes region
Tuesday night, then head east into the day Wednesday, then
slowly sink southeast, ejecting off the Southeast Coast late in
the day Thursday into Thursday night. This coastal low then
slowly heads northeast through the rest of the forecast period,
with some slow strengthening.

Rain showers associated with the low, and an inverted trough
extending northward, which would likely be the primary focus
for the showers for our area, will move through from the west
late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Of course, this far out,
there are timing differences with the track and strength of the
low, which would lead to differences in timing of any
precipitation and amounts. This also leads to high uncertainty
with the track of the eventual coastal low that passes south and
east of the area at the end of the week, and whether we see any
rainfall as it heads out to sea.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Multiple weak disturbances will pass through the region as high
pressure remains to the south. A warm front develops and moves
through early Saturday.

VFR initially tonight with chances of MVFR Saturday, eventually
becoming more likely in the afternoon. Rain showers will become
more probable for KSWF and KBDR terminals late tonight and for
all area terminals on Saturday, eventually becoming widespread
in the afternoon. Also, there will be a slight chance of an
embedded thunderstorm.

Winds generally SW to NW in the 5-10 kt range with some
terminals near 5 kts or less with more variable direction for
tonight. On Saturday, southerly winds increase to near 10-15 kt
with potential for some gusts around 20 kt, especially towards
KISP.


...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for showers late tonight.

Amendments possible to refine timing of rain showers and MVFR
Saturday.

Conditions could very well fluctuate between MVFR and VFR
Saturday.

Occasional gusts 20-25 kt possible Saturday afternoon.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: Showers, with slight chance of thunderstorms.
Showers taper off late. Patchy fog develops late. Mainly MVFR
to IFR. LIFR possible. Southerly wind gusts to near 20 kt
diminish.

Sunday: Patchy fog early with MVFR/IFR, possible LIFR.
Conditions then improve to VFR before another chance of showers
late day with a chance of MVFR as well. MVFR or lower more
likely at night with showers becoming widespread.

Monday: Showers with MVFR or lower conditions, tapering off
during the late afternoon and evening.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with MVFR or lower conditions with
increasing chances of showers afternoon into night. Showers
become likely Wednesday night. S winds G15-20kt. Gusts diminish
at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front passes through the area Saturday morning with a
chance of marginal SCA conditions in a S-SW flow. Both winds and
seas will be close with 25 kt gusts and 5 ft seas on the ocean.
Eastern LI Sound and the LI bays also look real marginal, but
with a southerly low-level jet moving across the area, opted to
stay with the SCA.

Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA
criteria through Wednesday. However, waves build late in the day
Wednesday as a southerly flow increases due to an approaching
low pressure system to the west. Depending on the track and
strength of the low, 25 kt gusts and 5 ft seas may make their
way in sooner than forecast Wednesday afternoon, especially from
Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-
     332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/DW