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330
FXUS61 KOKX 070852
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
352 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small craft advisory expanded and extended in time, mainly for
this afternoon through Sunday. Otherwise, no other significant
changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Leftover rain, patchy fog into the early morning. Some possible
additional showers first half of weekend. Gusty westerly flow
develops today.

2) Dry end to the weekend but continued gusty winds.

3) Next week, weak frontal systems with potential stronger low
pressure approach towards weeks end. Mainly dry initially but
chances of rain Thursday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure slowly moves across the region early this morning
and will slowly move northeast of the region thereafter, heading
towards the Gulf of Maine this afternoon. A secondary cold front
pushes through tonight.

Steady stratiform rainfall tapers off this morning from west to
east. Additional rainfall amounts to less than a half inch, with
no hydrologic impacts expected. Some locations with moisture
laden grounds will develop some fog, possibly locally dense at
times with greater reductions in visibility. Kept fog mention as
patchy and mostly across the interior and rural sections where
winds will be less.

Pressure gradient tightens between low pressure center northeast
of the region and high pressure well to the southwest of the
area. A gusty westerly wind develops late this morning and
continues for rest of the day and into tonight.

Also, while the gusty westerly winds will allow for some drier air,
this will be limited due to the synoptic pattern remaining in the
region. A strong upper level low will continue moving eastward into
the region. The cyclonic flow aloft will keep extra clouds and
perhaps a brief isolated to scattered rain shower could occur within
the region today into tonight, mainly across the northern half of
the region which will have relatively colder air aloft.

A note about the data utilized for this forecast. MAV MOS numbers
were used for the max temperatures today and blended with NBM
for min temperatures tonight. MAVs indicated relatively greater
warmth across coastal areas. Max temperatures forecast range
from the low to mid 60s across much of the area. Min
temperatures tonight will have a more mixed boundary layer and
therefore a less vast range with the mitigation of radiational
cooling. Min temperatures tonight range from the upper 30s to
upper 40s.

For winds, MAV MOS numbers were also used as NBM overall exhibited
too low with wind speeds considering the synoptic set up and its
quite low variance comparing 10th to 90th percentile wind gusts.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
For Sunday, the strong upper level low will be moving towards the
Canadian Maritimes with its associated surface low retrograding back
northwest within Southeast Canada. In the mid levels, the region
will be in between shortwaves, with some ridging taking place.
Surface high pressure remains well south and west as the low
strengthens as it moves farther northeast from the local area.

Dry but continued gusty conditions close out the weekend on Sunday
and into Sunday night. The subsidence from ridging aloft will allow
for not as much clouds. High temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. These were from half weight NBM and half weight MAV MOS.

Lows Sunday night will not be much different than lows of the
previous night and used half NBM and half MAV MOS.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Mid levels transition from WNW to ESE type flow to more SW to NE
towards the end of the week. At the surface, a few frontal systems
pass within the early to midweek period, but they are weak in
magnitude. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail.

Towards the end of next week, more of a low pressure influence
develops with more meridional flow aloft. Models are indicating both
the potential of larger low pressure area as well as a stronger low
pressure area. Forecast has more chances of rain Thursday through
Friday as a result. Too early to determine assessment for any
impacts with model run to run variability with regard to the
position of the low and orientation of upper level trough.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A slow moving cold front with waves of low pressure will track
offshore early this morning. Rain will to the east of the metro
terminals and light. Rain could linger a bit after sunrise for far
SE CT (KGON) and the twin forks of LI.

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast for the NYC terminals with
occasional IFR conditions across the Lower Hudson Valley. The
eastern terminals will likely experiencing IFR conditions until 12z,
with KGON staying down longer throughout the morning. Elsewhere,
with the light winds and residual moisture expect pockets of IFR and
LIFT in low clouds/fog , but low confidence on length of time it
lingers towards and after sunrise.

Chance of MVFR in scattered showers, mainly in the afternoon and
evening hours. Best chance will be across northern terminals.

Winds will mainly be light and variable to W/SW at less than 5 kt
overnight. Winds will then become W-NW for the late morning, and
increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon and this
evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Onset time of gusts on Saturday may be off by 1-3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late Saturday night: Mainly VFR. WNW-NW winds G20-25kt.

Sunday and Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Lingering higher seas remain on the eastern ocean. The winds become
more breezy late this morning and will remain breezy thereafter
through Sunday. SCA remains on the eastern ocean, east of Moriches
Inlet, heading into this morning.

Otherwise, SCA goes into effect for all ocean zones starting at 10AM
EST this morning and continues through the day Sunday. For non-ocean
zones, their SCA starts at 12PM EST this afternoon and also goes
through the day on Sunday.

The pressure gradient will remain rather steep between low pressure
to the northeast and high pressure well to the southwest through
much of this weekend. Pressure gradient may very well remain steep
enough to prolong SCA conditions Sunday night and Monday. Winds
trend more downward next week Monday night into midweek allowing for
mainly sub-SCA conditions except for the ocean which may very well
have some lingering swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures to Actual Min Temperature:

No records were set but Bridgeport got close.

November 6:
KEWR: 66/2022, 61/2026
KBDR: 62/2024, 60/2026
KNYC: 66/2022, 60/2026
KLGA: 65/2024, 62/2026
KJFK: 64/2022, 60/2026
KISP: 65/2022, 60/2026


Record Precipitation to Actual Precipitation:

Bridgeport and Islip set new records.

November 6:
KEWR: 2.12/1911, 0.93/2026
KBDR: 0.54/2018, 0.89/2026 (New Record)
KNYC: 1.47/1911, 0.82/2026
KLGA: 0.96/1963, 0.50/2026
KJFK: 1.42/1963, 0.63/2026
KISP: 0.71/1963, 0.96/2026 (New Record)

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST
     Sunday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM