What's Happening In Newington

814
FXUS61 KOKX 261158
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
658 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure retreats north today as low pressure in the Midwest
moves east. The winter storm impacts the region late today
through Saturday morning. High pressure then briefly returns
before a strong frontal system tracks through the Great Lakes,
impacting the local area Sunday through Tuesday. A clipper low
may track nearby into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Arctic air mass settles in ahead of incoming winter storm.

Colder start than recent mornings with temperatures in the teens
and 20s to begin the day thanks to CAA behind a fropa last night.
Dry conditions persist through mid afternoon with light northerly
surface flow. Afternoon temperatures top out at or below the
freezing mark, with highs ranging from mid 20s well inland to
lower 30s along the coast.

The Canadian high that ushered in this colder air mass retreats
further north today as surface low pressure drives east through
the Midwest. Thickening and lowering cloud deck expected into
afternoon ahead of snow onset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
What`s Changed: Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
New London County in CT.

Key Messages:

* Winter storm impacts the area late today through Saturday
  morning, with a plowable snowfall likely.

* Heaviest snow is expected to occur this evening, with
  significant travel impacts expected due to reduced visibilities
  and snow covered roads.

* Snowfall accumulations range from 5 to 9 inches in the Warning
  area and 3 to 5 inches in the Advisory. Localized areas could
  exceed 10 inches where heaviest banding sets up.

No significant changes to forecast thinking with this update.
A winter storm is expected to impact the region later this
evening and tonight, producing one of the larger snowfalls in
the past several years for some areas.

Mid level shortwave rounds ridging centered over the Central
US, with associated surface low pressure tracking east through
the OH Valley. Strong frontogenetic forcing, coupled with ideal
jet positioning, develops widespread snow across the area by
this evening. Continue to think this will be a primarily all
snow event for most, though still a low chance that sleet mixes
in across portions of the area with WAA aloft. Soundings depict
a warm nose above H7 that if slightly undermodeled, could allow
for more in the way of ice pellets, particularly for NYC and
points south and west. This potential is currently not expected
to impact snow accumulations, but will have to be monitored.

Bulk of the accumulation looks to occur this evening and into
the first half of the night when the strongest thermal forcing,
omega, and synoptic lift coincide, leading to heavy snow
banding. Hi res guidance continues to wiggle this axis around,
but consistently signaling it sets up over the local area, with
the 00z HREF offering notable probabilities (50-80%) of greater
than 1 inch per hour rates from around 7-10 PM for NYC metro on
NW, then shifting south and east through midnight. Localized
pockets even exceed 50% for 2 inches per hour in this window.
This leads to growing confidence in heavy snowfall rates for
several hours after sunset into the first part of the night.

The heavy snow band will gradually subside overnight as the
lift weakens and saturation aloft begins to wane. Light snow
accumulation is still expected through early to mid Saturday
morning, although the rates will likely be much lower, more on
the order of a quarter to half inch per hour.

Expanded the Winter Weather Advisory into New London where snow
amounts have increased slightly. Considered upgrade to Warning
in Middlesex as well, though held off with lingering
uncertainty on sufficient rates/amounts occurring so far east,
and collaboration with neighbor. That said, an expansion of the
Warning can`t be ruled out should subtle shifts in the banding
occur.

Snowfall Accumulations: Overall, 5 to 9 inches are forecast in
the Warning area, with localized amounts exceeding 10 inches
possible. In the Advisory area across SE CT, 3 to 5 inches is
expected, with potential for a few locales to exceed 6 inches.
The higher amounts are possible if banding were to put down a
bit more snow or linger longer over specific areas than
currently anticipated.

If the forecast verifies, Central Park will receive its first
snowfall of greater than 4 inches since January 2022. In the
January 28-29, 2022 storm 8.3 inches was observed.

Snowfall rates: Peak rates of 1-2 inch per hour are expected in
heavier snow bands. Rates could briefly exceed 2 inches per hour
in heaviest snow banding, which appears to be very localized.

Snow characteristic: Likely going to be variability with snow
ratios throughout the event, but the snow may begin a bit drier
and become wetter as the event wears on. The banding potential
also complicates this as within the band ratios will likely be
high but in areas surrounding the band could be lower.

Light snow or flurries likely persist through much of Saturday
morning before tapering off by midday or so. Additional
accumulation after 12z continues to look insignificant. Clouds
may linger into the afternoon, but clearing does start to take
place later in the day from the north. With the fresh snowpack,
temperatures likely struggle to rise above freezing. It remains
cold Saturday night with lows in the teens inland to low 20s
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Strong low pressure brings rain to the region late Sunday
  through Monday, with a brief period of freezing rain possible
  across the interior at the onset Sunday evening.

* Gusty winds develop behind the storm on Tuesday, and gusts
  could approach or exceed 40 mph.

Strong frontal system continues to be the main story early next
week, impacting the area late Sunday through Tuesday. The
center of the low is progged to move over the Great Lakes region
and rapidly deepen as it tracks into northern New England.
Soundings indicate sufficient warm air advecting in aloft to
preclude any snow from the system, but could see a period of ZR
at precip onset with low level cold air in place initially.
Area of concern for this is across parts of the interior, north
and west of NYC. As the warm front approaches and milder air
works in aloft, the ground across the interior likely stays
right around freezing for some time, especially after being
primed by a cold air mass for a several days. Guidance isn`t
signaling a significant ice threat from this event however, with
accretion values well under a tenth of an inch. Plain rain is
expected everywhere by the early morning hours of Monday, with
rain continuing into the day.

As the system departs into eastern Canada, gusty NW winds
develop behind it and speeds could approach or exceed 40 mph by
Tuesday morning. Given a markedly colder air mass advecting in,
wind chills likely fall into the teens at the least as well.
Thereafter, a fast moving clipper low could pass near the
region by Wednesday, though this system looks relatively weak
and transient, and significant impacts don`t appear likely.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal system approaches today and impacts the area this evening
and overnight.

VFR until around 20Z. Expect LIFR with periods of VLIFR overnight.
Snow develops from NW to SE, with the steadiest/heaviest
generally between 00Z and 07Z. Growing confidence for a period
of heavy snow in the 00z-06z window, so have added a TEMPO group
for +SN. Can not rule out 2+ inch per hour rates.

Can not rule out some minor changes to timing in upcoming TAFs based
on the exact track, speed, and intensity of the system.

Winds will be around 10 kt or less this morning into the afternoon,
then increase late tonight. Winds veer to generally to the E this
afternoon and evening, then back to the NE after 5-6Z.

Airport Snowfall Accumulation forecast:

KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KISP: 7-8 inches.
KSWF/KHPN/KBDR: 8-9 inches.
KGON: 5-6 inches.

Higher amounts possible if any heavy banding occurs.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for timing of snowfall and changing flight
categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: IFR with AM snow, low potential (075-078-080-176>179.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ079-081.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DR
HYDROLOGY...DR