What's Happening In Newington

543
FXUS61 KOKX 070058
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
858 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Intermittent rain showers continue into tonight.

2) Briefly drying out late this week, before another round of
rain moves through Saturday.

3) A frontal wave passing nearby or to the southeast Sunday night
into Monday night should bring a light to moderate rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mid-level trough sinks south and east from the Great Lakes,
with a surface cold front draped across Upstate NY and Central
PA advancing east and through the region tonight.

Broken band of rain showers leading the boundary continues to
work through the area from west to east into late afternoon. The
steadiest of this precipitation tapers by early evening, but
additional rain is expected to develop and skirt the coast
tonight as a weak frontal wave spins up and tracks northeast. A
few embedded rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out with the
activity. Conditions dry out into Thursday morning as the system
works further offshore.

QPF is relatively light, generally around a quarter inch in most
areas by Thursday morning. The rain should prove beneficial
given relatively dry antecedent conditions and an expanding
moderate drought locally.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Into late week, the cold front that moves through tonight
progresses far enough offshore to allow surface high pressure
to build in from the Midwest.

A drier and cooler air mass works in on the resultant NW flow.
Breaks of sun with afternoon temperatures generally in the 60s
both Thursday and Friday. Into the weekend, shortwave rounds the
base of the trough in place, with a warm front likely lifting
north Friday night or early Saturday. This will bring another
round of rain that could persist into at least Saturday afternoon.
Rainfall looks modest at this time, with no significant hydrologic
concerns.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
NWP guidance depicts an upper trough over the northern Plains
and upper Great Lakes Sunday night, amplifying and progressing
to ern Canada and the Northeast Mon-Mon night, with leading
energy from multiple branches of the jet stream. Degree of
phasing of these multiple streams with the longwave upper trough
will ultimately determine strength and track of a frontal wave
expected to develop and pass nearby or just to the SE, and
associated rainfall. Latest NBM appears to be keying in on a
more consolidated frontal wave passing close to the area a la
the 00Z ECMWF, with 3/4 to around 1 inch of rain, while the less
phased 12Z GFS and ECMWF are lighter, with 1/4 to 1/2 inch.

Above normal temps from Sat night into Sunday night should trend
cooler for early next week, from near normal to a few degrees below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front moves across this evening and passes southeast of the
region overnight into Thursday.

Expecting mainly MVFR this evening with some localized IFR with
periodic rain showers. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Then, overnight improvements to VFR with the more NW flow but
still some localized MVFR to IFR with more showers set to move
across. All VFR conditions expected for Thursday with mainly dry
conditions.

Regarding winds, southerly flow near 10 to 15 kt becomes more W-NW
this evening with NW flow overnight into early Thursday. Wind speeds
eventually decrease closer to 10 kt late tonight into early
Thursday. Occasional wind gusts 15-20 kt are possible Thursday. As
winds decrease more late day Thursday, there is a chance of sea
breeze development with more southerly flow for some terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Conditions might turn out to be more VFR than MVFR this
evening.

Mainly VFR conditions expected overnight with possible MVFR in
showers.

Possible sea breeze for JFK Thursday afternoon and for LGA and
EWR towards early evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. SW to W wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts diminish at
night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower with showers north and west of NYC
terminals during the day, otherwise VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower at
night for all terminals with showers likely. Southerly wind gusts 15-
20 kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Monday: Showers likely early, chance of showers afternoon into
evening. MVFR or lower possible day into early eve. Mainly VFR
thereafter at night. SW to NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory continues on all waters through the rest of the
day with SW gusts 25 to 30 kt and ocean seas between 5 and 8 ft.
Conditions begin to gradually improve this evening behind a cold
frontal passage, though ocean seas linger aoa 5 ft tonight, before
lowering Thursday AM. Sub SCA conditions then persist through at
least Friday.

Increasing SSW flow on Saturday likely brings a return to SCA
conditions on at least the ocean, where gusts above 25 kt develop
and seas build to above 5 ft by late afternoon. Non ocean coastal
waters may also see wind gusts exceed SCA criteria. Winds and seas
lower Saturday night, with sub advisory conditions then anticipated
into early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DR