What's Happening In Newington

631
FXUS61 KOKX 202353
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
653 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Near zero wind chills into this morning.

2.) Temperatures moderate briefly Wednesday PM into Thursday.

3.) Prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures from Friday into
early next week.

4.) High uncertainty with late weekend storm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
W winds do weaken into tonight as high pressure settles in just
south of the area. Thus there will be more of a noticeable wind
chill through the first half of the night. Minimum wind chill
readings should get down into the single digits once again. After
midnight the winds will get light, especially for some of the
sheltered non-urban locations. This will get actual air temperatures
down into the lower teens to around 10 above, otherwise actual wind
chills before the winds shut off will be in the single digits. Quite
cold no matter whether the wind is blowing or not.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will then move offshore into Wednesday afternoon and
evening. This will establish a return flow as the winds acquire a
southerly component. Thus, temperatures recover and get close to
average for this time of year during the afternoon. A weak warm
front approaches and ushers in even milder air for later Wednesday
night into Thursday. The warm front may trigger some light snow
across northeastern sections, and some snow / rain showers across
portions of Long Island early Wednesday night, but no impacts are
anticipated. Afterwards, temperatures Thursday should reach the
lower and middle 40s.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A longwave upper trough across the eastern half of North America
will continue to send arctic air southward into the lower 48, east
of the Rockies. Multiple pieces of the polar vortex descend
southward during this time. The first shot sending an arctic cold
front through the area Friday. The core of the cold air will move
into the area Friday night into Saturday. A reinforcing shot will
then follow Sunday night into Monday behind low pressure moving off
the east coast, but not quite as cold as the first.

After near freezing highs on Friday, temperatures will plummet with
lows Saturday morning in the single digits to around 10 at the
coast, and daytime highs likely not getting out of the teens. This
will also be accompanied by a gusty W/NW flow that will produce wind
chill values below zero Friday night. There is the chance for cold
weather hazards.

Sunday into Monday will be slightly warmer with highs in the 20s and
lows in the single digits inland to the lower teens as the coast.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
There continues to be a lot of uncertainty with the track of low
pressure developing along the east coast Sunday and passing to the
south and east Sunday night into Monday. Recent trends in the both
the dynamical and AI models are clearly trending toward a more
southward suppression of the storm track. The GFS in particular is
the most suppressed, keeping the area dry. Even the Canadian which
is still fairly wet, has shown a trend in the highest QPF axis to
shift south. The latest long term NBM (13Z) has come up with chances
of snow, but based on trends in the 12Z guidance wanted to keep
chance PoPs no higher than 50 percent. NBM probabilities for snow
amounts of 6 inches or more Sunday into Monday rage from 40 percent
inland, to around 60 percent across Long Island and southern
portions of the NYC metro. The main reason for the differences in
the guidance are likely due to the amount of interaction between the
southern and northern branches of the polar jet. The 12Z guidance is
showing less phasing with the GFS leaving much of the energy behind
across northern Mexico.

Bottom line, we are not out of the woods yet on an accumulating
snowfall event for the region on Sunday, but the next 24-48h will be
critical to see if models find some continuity and lock on better to
a solution.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains in control.

VFR.

Isolated gusts to around 20 kt possible through 01-02Z. W winds
10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt overnight. Winds shift
more SW then eventually S into Wednesday late morning/early
afternoon. Afternoon gusts 15-25 kt mainly for coastal
terminals. Gusts may be more occasional or may end prior to
forecast.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated gusts to around 20 kt possible through 02Z this
evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday PM: Mainly VFR. SW-S winds G20-25kt. MVFR or lower
possible in any snow or rain/snow showers, mainly for KBDR and
KGON. LLWS possible from 03Z through around 12Z Thursday.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR/light snow and or rain
early in the morning east of the city terminals. W-SW gusts
around 20kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR. W winds becoming NW G25-30kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR. NW G20-25kt in the morning.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with snow and N-NE G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions wane mainly from west to east through this
evening and into a portion of the overnight further east out on the
ocean. Otherwise, sub small craft conditions should prevail into the
first half of Wednesday. Later Wednesday into Wednesday night small
craft conditions return for at least the ocean and possibly some of
the non-ocean waters. During Thursday small craft conditions may
spread across the remainder of the waters. Marginal small craft
conditions will then likely remain for the ocean through Thursday
night.

An Arctic cold frontal passage Friday afternoon should then bring
SCA conditions to all waters Friday afternoon/night, with W-NW flow
gusting to 25-30 kt and occasional gusts to 35 kt on the ocean, and
seas 5-7 ft.

SCA conditions should continue on the ocean Sat into Sun, with NW-N
flow gusting to 25-30 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt may also be possible
on the non ocean waters as well Sat night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ332-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE/DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/DW