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053
FXUS61 KOKX 120234
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
934 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to the forecast since last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low pressure will impact the region from Thursday into
Friday, with a period of prolonged rainfall and a mix with snow
possible well inland north and west of NYC late Thursday night
into Friday morning, then again inland Friday night.

2) Minor coastal flooding is possible in spots during the
daytime high tide cycles on Thursday and Friday.

3) High pressure slowly building to the west will bring a return
of dry weather for most of the weekend into the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface low pressure with upper support will slowly strengthen
as it shifts east from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic
coast tonight into Thu morning, then passes just S Thu afternoon
and night. The low should then then linger just S/E on Fri as
its parent upper low approaches. The system will finally shift
to the E-NE Fri night into Sat.

Precip chances remain highest from Thu afternoon through Fri
afternoon. There is a chance of wet snow mixing in across the
higher elevations well N/W of NYC late Thu night into Fri
morning, and again there late Fri night into early Sat morning
across a wide portion of the interior, both with little to
no accumulation.

Flooding impacts due to rainfall still don`t appear to be much
of an issue in light of progged rainfall amounts through the
event either side of an inch. Combo of lift and low level
instability and lift especially invof an inverted trough
extending NW from the offshore low into the NYC metro area or
nearby Long Island should be enough to generate moderate to
locally heavy showers, with any greater MUCAPE for thunder
limited to areas offshore. Isolated amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches
are not out of the realm of possibility.

While winds pick up Thu night into Fri, with peak gusts 25-30
mph in most places across NYC/Long Island/coastal CT as winds
back around to the NE and then N. Can`t rule out some gusts
closer to 40 mph out by Montauk some time on Fri depending on
exact low track and evolution, which remain uncertain enough to
omit this from the forecast attm.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Coastal flood statements have been issued for Thursday`s daytime
high tide cycle for coastal Fairfield in CT and the south shore
of Nassau.

The combination of a recent new moon (Nov. 9) and an area of low
pressure forecast to move off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday
will bring the potential for minor coastal flooding during the
daytime high tide cycles Thursday and Friday.

Stayed the course and used a blend of NYHOPS50/ETSS/PETSS50 for
surge, which puts the typical, more vulnerable locations of the
south shore back bays of western Long Island and the SW CT
coast, right around the minor coastal flood benchmark.
The ensembles also are showing more variability on Friday for
the south shore back days of Long Island, with the potential for
more widespread flooding, however means are actually a bit
lower in most instances. While the easterly flow is less than
24 hr and northerly winds develop on the back side of the low
Thursday night into Friday, there could be some residual water
lingering in the back bays for the Friday morning high tide
cycle. There is low confidence at this time for additional minor
coastal flooding on Friday.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A large area of high pressure building to the west will bring
dry wx for most of the weekend into the middle of next week,
with gusty NW winds also prevailing this weekend. Temps a few
degrees below avg this weekend should slowly modify next week
to near avg by Tue or Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak high pressure tonight gives way to low pressure Thursday,
with its center passing nearby late late in day into evening.

VFR through tonight. Showers will begin developing NW of NYC
terminals, mainly towards KSWF around daybreak Thursday, then
overspread the rest of the terminals late morning into the
afternoon. Flight categories will lower to MVFR in the
afternoon for most terminals. Conds could become IFR in the
afternoon, especially at KSWF, but also possibly for KHPN as
well.

Light S to SE or variable winds this evening. Winds during the
Thursday morning push increasing out of the E. Gusts 15-20 kt
possible at coastal terminals after 15z. The gusts will briefly
end or become occasional as winds become NE-N Thursday evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Light winds through 07-09z probably have a southerly component.

Amendments likely for the timing of lowering conditions and
showers on Thursday.

Wind shift from from E to NE could be off by 1-3 hours.

Timing of gusts Thursday may be off by 1-3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: MVFR/IFR in rain. N-NNE wind gusts 20 kt,
especially close to the coast.

Friday-Friday night: MVFR/IFR in rain. Rain/snow mix possible at
KSWF Friday morning and then again Friday evening. Rain tapers
off Friday night. N-NW winds gusts 20-25 kt, strongest on
Friday.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday-Monday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20 kt on Sunday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure should bring an extended period of SCA cond to the
waters, beginning out east Thu afternoon, then expanding to all
waters Thu night into Fri. Cannot yet rule out some gale force
gusts especially on the ern ocean waters, and uncertainty
remains due to storm track and evolution. So still only
forecasting near gales out east.

Mainly quiet cond return to the non ocean waters Fri night, but
should continue on the ocean especially out east into daytime
Sat or Sat evening. A few gusts to 25 kt may be possible on the
near-shore non-ocean waters Sat afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 6 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ331-332-340-350.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...Goodman/DW