NewingtonWeather.COM

090
FXUS61 KOKX 082348
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Downward adjustment of temps by a few degrees across outlying
areas tonight and Friday Night with good radiational cooling
conditions. Slight increase in gusts for tomorrow late morning
into afternoon with secondary cold frontal passage. Otherwise,
no significant changes were made to the forecast with the latest
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable through Saturday.

2) An area of low pressure will bring rain to the area Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid-level flow becomes more zonal tonight as the shortwave
pulls away to the east. Mid-level ridging begins to develop west
of the area tonight and through Friday as surface high pressure
strengthens underneath it. This surface high pressure will
gradually move eastward over the area through Saturday.

This will keep the area dry and keep temperatures seasonable with
highs for the next several days in the middle 60s to low 70s. As the
pressure gradient weakens with high pressure overhead, generally
clear and calm conditions during the next few nights may allow for
some efficient radiational cooling, likely maximizing Friday night
into Saturday morning. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s
inland and LI pine barren to middle 50s for city. Lows Friday
night should be a few degrees cooler as Canadian high pressure
builds overhead dropping into the upper 30s inland/LI pine
barrens and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to make landfall Friday night into
Saturday morning along the eastern Gulf Coast. Refer to the latest
official track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center for additional details.

Remnant moisture from the system then looks to interact with mid-
latitude energy, bringing a period of moderate to possibly heavy
rainfall across the region Sunday into Monday. The system looks to
be progressive enough to spare the region of a more substantial
rainfall. In addition, there is not much evidence the system will
have much instability work with, albeit precipitable water values of
1.5 to 2 inches. Guidance continues to bring 0.75 to 1 inch of
rainfall over a 12-18 hour period. The latest 90th percentile NBM
shows 1.5 to 2 inches over this 18 hour period, which has also
remained consistent over the last 24 hours.

S/SE winds Sunday night may briefly reach 20 to 30 mph along the
coast. There is a full moon and coastal locations will need about 1
to 2 ft to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks, which is not
expected at this time. This will come into better focus over the
next day or so as we get into the window for surge guidance.
Right now, it is looking like a low end event at best.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the southwest of the region through Friday,
building overhead Friday Night into Saturday.

VFR thru the period.

WNW winds subside to 5 kt or less overnight into Fri AM push.
Winds increase to 10 to 15 kt by mid to late morning, with
gusts 20 to 25 kt likely in the afternoon. Winds will generally
be left of 300 True thru early afternoon, potentially wavering
or veering right of 300 True between 19z and 23z. WNW winds and
gusts subside quickly btwn 23 and 01z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts starting-ending may be off by an hour so on Friday.
Peak gusts to 25 kt likely. Winds will generally be left of 300
True into early afternoon, potentially wavering or veering
right of 300 True between 19z and 23z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR. WNW winds quickly diminishing to light and/or
variable thru the evening.

Saturday: VFR. N winds, becoming S/SE late.

Sunday: VFR through the early afternoon. Chance of rain with
MVFR/IFR cond developing late, and at night. Increasing E/SE winds
10-15g20kt in aft/eve.

Monday: MVFR or lower in rain showers early, VFR likely in afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight and through much of the
weekend as high pressure slides overhead. There is a low chance
of SCA conditions on the nearshore waters Friday afternoon with
gusts 20-25kt but largely appears to be under the threshold.
The best chance for SCA conditions on the ocean will be Sunday
night into Monday as a low pressure system slides over or just
south of the area.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV/MW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...NV/MW