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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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369
FXUS61 KOKX 120536
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1236 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Impacts are not anticipated through at least Saturday.
Conditions potentially meeting advisory or warning criteria are
not expected.
2) There is a chance for light rain and/or snow Sunday night
into Monday, however uncertainty remains high.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Dry weather is anticipated through Saturday, with only a stray
snow shower or flurry possible Friday night due to a shortwave
and surface trough shifting through. Very limited to no impacts
with this. Temperatures still below normal, with highs each day
at least in the 30s.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A lot of uncertainty remains among the global models with a
deepening low pressure system that is expected to move off the
East Coast Sunday night, and pass to the south then northeast
Monday into Monday night. With this uncertainty the NBM was
followed for the probabilities and weather. However,
precipitation type and amounts are highly dependent on the track
that the storm eventually takes.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR as high pressure slowly builds from the west.
NW winds G20-25kt will slowly diminish through daybreak,
highest at KJFK/KLGA. Gusts may become infrequent or shut off
altogether for a short time, then resume after 13Z. Direction
should be more right on or just left of 310 magnetic overnight,
then just right by daybreak. Winds diminish Thu night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts before 13Z may be occasional rather than frequent.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Late Thursday night: VFR.
Friday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G15-20kt.
Friday night: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15G15-20kt.
Sunday: VFR.
Sunday night and Monday: Still a low chance of snow inland, and
either snow/rain at the NYC metros/coast, with MVFR or lower
cond possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions on all waters continue through Thursday. An
occasional gust to gale force is possible for the ocean waters
this evening. For the non-ocean waters, the advisory may be
able to be shortened to exclude most of Thursday afternoon, and
for the ocean waters, the SCA conditions could last into
Thursday evening due to gusts. In both cases, not enough
confidence to change the advisory, which currently ends Thursday
afternoon on all waters. Sub-advisory conditions otherwise
follow through Friday afternoon before marginal gusts return on
the ocean Friday night.
Winds and seas are expected to be below advisory levels Saturday
through Sunday night. There is uncertainty with the track and
strength of low pressure passing to the south Sunday night, and
to the northeast on Monday. Currently there is a chance of
borderline SCA conditions on the ocean waters, gusts and seas,
Monday into Monday night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JC/MET
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JC/MET
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