What's Happening In Newington

943
FXUS61 KOKX 281443
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1043 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry through Wednesday.

2) Widespread rain expected Wednesday night and Thursday.

3) Low potential at this time for an offshore low pressure system to
bring unsettled weather to the area this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure sticks around through tonight, then retreats in
response to an approaching frontal system late on Wednesday.

Mostly dry weather is anticipated today. While it will be a
sunny start to the day, clouds will increase midday into the
afternoon in response to an approaching cold front. This front
will have a line of showers along it to our west. However, as it
approaches the area, the showers will rapidly dissipate due to
dry air and ridging aloft. Its still possible isolated showers
make it into areas north and west of NYC before they completely
dissipate. Any precipitation from this will be very light and
insignificant.

Dry weather then sticks around Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon. Expect highs today to be in the 60s. Highs on
Wednesday will be slightly cooler in the mid 60s inland and low
60s to mid 50s at the coast.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
On Wednesday, a deep, upper-level trough will dig into the
Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Along it, a shortwave will
lead to developing low pressure at the surface. This low
pressure system will pass through the area Wednesday evening
into Thursday, bringing widespread rainfall.

00Z guidance has trended this system to be drier and less potent.
Regardless, we`re still anticipating widespread rainfall, but QPF is
a little lower. Area-wide, we`re expecting about 0.5 to 1.0 inches
of rainfall. This will be widely beneficial given the areas with
higher QPF will occur where we currently are seeing moderate drought
conditions. This includes NYC, NE NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley.

There is still relatively large spread among the guidance with QPF
due to exactly where the wave forms and how quick it moves/deepens.
However, things have narrowed down a bit since the last forecast
update. Latest NBM 24 hr QPF 10th percentile shows about 0.10 to
0.25 inches with the 90th percentile showing 1.25 to 1.50 inches.

While thunder can`t be ruled out, not expecting significant
convection with heavy downpours. Rain will be mostly light to
moderate, with no hydrologic concerns at this time.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The next chance for unsettled weather could come this weekend
with a passing offshore low. The GFS and ICON are more
aggressive showing phasing of the northern and southern stream
with a surface low deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This
would bring better chances for seeing wet weather and windy
conditions. Both the ECMWF and GDPS are either offshore or
weaker with this system, so there is plenty of uncertainty.
Stuck with NBM slight chance PoPs for now, since even the more
aggressive scenarios bring the low a little too far offshore.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure gradually weakens and moves offshore through
tonight.

VFR.

Winds generally SE less than 10kt with local sea breeze along
the immediate coasts of NY and CT. Winds weaken this evening
before becoming light and variable overnight. SE flow will
develop again on Wednesday morning under 10 kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

winds at KJFK may remain 160 rather than going back to a SE flow
this afternoon.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday Night: Showers with MVFR or lower conditions.

Thursday: Showers tapering off in the morning. MVFR or lower
conditions in the morning, becoming VFR in the afternoon. NW
winds G15-25 kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR. WNW winds G20-25kt.

Saturday: Chance of mainly afternoon showers with MVFR
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in place for the ocean waters out to
20 nm through today due to lingering 5-ft swell from an offshore
low. The central and eastern ocean zones continue SCA conditions
into tonight, where confidence is a bit higher for 5ft seas to
linger.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on Wednesday.

SCA conditions expected on the ocean waters out to 20 nm Thu-Fri
with the passage of a cold front, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5-
6 ft. There is lesser potential for some of the non-ocean waters to
see 25 kt gusts as well.

Uncertainty increases thereafter. There is potential for an offshore
low to pass close enough to bring impacts.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...BR