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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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776 FXUS61 KOKX 232347 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 747 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wet and cool conditions for much of the area on Saturday, potentially lingering into Sunday. 2) Chance of rain during the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper ridge just to our west will continue to weaken as multiple upper lows impinge upon it. One will be over the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, and the other, over the Northern Plains and Canadian prairie provinces of western Canada. This will weaken surface high pressure across the area Friday, with a cooler day on tap (closer to normal). An elongated frontal boundary associated with the the western system will then work east toward the area Friday night into Saturday. Decent frontogenetic forcing between a frontal wave and the high over the Northeast will allow for rain to overspread the area from west to east on Saturday. Some rain could get into far western sections by daybreak Saturday. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall across NE NJ and NYC, with about an inch, but decreasing to the north and east, with only a quarter to half inch across far eastern LI and SE CT. While there is decent agreement with rain across the area on Saturday, there will be a sharp edge to the northeast. It could take until late afternoon/early evening to get into far SE CT and the twin fork of eastern LI. This where rainfall amounts and timing are most uncertain. Saturday will also be quite raw with an easterly flow gusting up to 20 mph along the coast. Temperatures may not even get out of the 40s for highs. Interior southeast CT likely to be the warmest due to the slower onset of the rain. Rain continues into the first half Saturday night, but likely decreasing in intensity and tapering during the morning hours as the frontal wave deepens to the south off the Mid Atlantic coast. Sunday could very well be dry, but a chance for rain has been kept in the forecast. In fact, the chance has increased some. There is uncertainty as to where shortwave energy in the NW flow cutoffs an upper low. There are solutions that keep surface low pressure farther north along the Mid Atlantic coast. This could lead to more rain on Sunday. The 12Z Canadian is a very wet solution with over 2 inches of rainfall across the area (sat-Sun), with the 00Z ECMWF more of the in between solution. Highs will be a bit warmer Sunday, provided the drier forecast holds. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A series of Pacific systems will track across the country during the beginning of next week, potentially reaching the area and producing a period of rain Wed and/or Thu. Timing is low confidence attm, but the modeling does support the likelihood of this overall pattern development. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Stationary front to the south with high pressure staying well north of the region through the TAF period. Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Only exception would be a low probability of a few rain showers and MVFR overnight into early Friday east of NYC terminals. Sea breeze formed and went through KJFK and KISP. Winds overall expected to become more variable in direction as they decrease in speed to near 5 kts or less this evening. A general northerly flow develops overnight into early Friday without much change in wind speed. Winds become more of a southeast to south flow on Friday. Wind speeds stay generally in the 5-10 kt range. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Early evening southerly flow possible at KLGA 01-02Z Fri, with otherwise a variable wind direction with wind speeds less than 10 kts. Timing of more variable wind direction could be 1-2 hours later than indicated in TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday night: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible late with a chance of rain near NYC terminals and north and west. Saturday: MVFR or lower conditions with rain developing from west to east. E-ESE wind gusts near 15-20 kt. Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain. ENE wind gusts near 15-20 kt day into early eve. Monday: MVFR or lower possible with possible showers east of NYC terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Tuesday: Periods of MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. SE wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early eve. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Forecast winds and waves remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Friday. A frontal wave near the area on Saturday passes to the south and east Saturday night into Sunday. There remains a good amount of uncertainty as to how far south the low will be on Sunday. However, marginal SCA conditions are becoming increasingly likely in a strengthening easterly flow Saturday. SCA conditions could continue into Sunday, but once again this hinges on the low track to our south. Winds and seas area likely to remain blw SCA lvls Mon into Tue, with seas on the ocean possibly building to 5 ft or greater by Tue ngt or Wed. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMC/DW AVIATION...JM MARINE...JMC/DW |
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