NewingtonWeather.COM

823
FXUS61 KOKX 080836
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
336 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small craft advisories have been extended in time. Ocean SCA out
20 NM goes until 6AM EST Tuesday. Non-ocean SCA goes until 6PM
EST Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Region in between high pressure to south and west and low
pressure to north and east into the first half of this week. A few
frontal system pass by but without much rain. Breezy and mild
conditions expected much of the time.

2) A stronger and larger low pressure area develops and
approaches towards late in the week. Greater chances of
widespread rain and perhaps even some mixing with snow for more
northern sections of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
In the mid levels, strong shortwave moves into Canadian Maritimes
with the local region having some brief ridging. However, another
strong shortwave approaches tonight and moves across on Monday. Yet
another mid level shortwave moves across Tuesday but will be less
amplified. At the surface, low pressure near Maine moves northward
into the Canadian Maritimes and deepens today. Any remaining widely
scattered rain showers taper off early, with a mainly dry day
expected. Tonight, the low pressure retrogrades a little to the west
but overall maintains a general northward track without much
weakening. The pressure gradient will steepen across the local area
today between the low to the northeast and high pressure well to the
south and west. The pressure gradient will remain rather steep
tonight. The result will be gusty westerly flow with frequent gusts
near 25 to 30 mph today into tonight.

The same pressure pattern remains Monday but low pressure in
Southeast Canada weakens some with high pressure well to the south
and west of the local area. A frontal system passes through on
Monday with more west to northwest gusty flow. Wind speeds and
gusts similar to the previous day. Mainly dry conditions
forecast to prevail tonight through midweek. A few rain showers
are possible Monday but with lack of moisture content in the
atmosphere, rainfall amounts will stay light, under a quarter of
an inch. No hydrologic impacts are expected.

Another frontal system looks to move across Tuesday into Tuesday
night but no rain is expected with this one and not even that much
of an increase in clouds. The system has less amplified flow aloft
so winds will be more on a downward trend Tuesday into Wednesday.

Regarding temperatures, the airmass generally remains mild with
temperatures staying above normal with highs staying mostly in the
upper 50s to lower 60s range. Temperatures at night will have less
radiational cooling with the boundary layer winds staying up.

A note about the NBM. Once again, the NBM in this westerly wind
pattern has solutions that are not high enough compared to MAV
MOS. MAV MOS was used more for winds through Monday with manual
adjustment upward for wind gusts through Tuesday compared to NBM
alone. MAV temperatures used for high temperature forecast today
and tonight and blended in with NBM for temperature forecast
Monday and Monday night.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
More of an amplified pattern seems to be taking shape approaching
the late week period. Flow orientation transition from zonal to more
meridional. Models are indicating a deep upper level trough moving
into the local region Friday into Saturday. At the surface, weak
high pressure briefly traverses the local area Wednesday into
Wednesday night with a low pressure system developing just south of
the Great Lakes and moving northeast into the local region Thursday
into Thursday night. The system may linger nearby Friday into the
start of next weekend.

Overall, airmass will become cooler with time. High temperature
forecasts exhibit quite the lowering trend from mid to late week.
Highs forecast Wednesday mostly in the lower 60s transition to just
upper 40s to near 50 by Friday. In addition, the low pressure
approach and movement near the area will have associated higher
chances of rain, widespread rainfall Thursday into Friday, possibly
lingering into Saturday. Some locations across the northern half of
the region may even have some snow mixing in with the rain at times
as forecast temperatures occasionally get near 30.

There is uncertainty with the timing and position of trough and
surface low making exact impacts difficult to assess at this
time. Confidence in exact details is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper low lifts north and northeast of the area early this
morning through this afternoon.

Other than next couple of hours early this morning with some brief
MVFR ceilings, VFR are conditions expected to prevail through the
TAF period.

W to WNW winds of 8-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt at most terminals
early this morning, with gusts increasing some towards mid to late
morning. Overall, gusts should largely diminish by late this afternoon
as the winds shift more to the W-WSW.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts diminishing or ending late this afternoon remains
uncertain, with gusts possibly lasting longer than currently indicated
in TAFs.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night: VFR. W-WSW winds 5 to 15 kt. Occasional gusts to
around 20 kt.

Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in possible showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With a steep pressure gradient remaining in place across the local
waters, widespread SCA wind gusts are expected to continue through
Monday. As such, the SCA has been extended on all waters through the
day Monday, until 6PM EST Monday. For the ocean, their seas stay
near 5 to 7 ft through Monday and are forecast to remain near 5 to 6
ft Monday night. Therefore the SCA for the ocean zones out 20 NM
goes further, ending at 6AM EST Tuesday.

Additional SCA wind gusts are possible Tuesday with the next frontal
system passage with ocean SCA seas potentially lasting more into
Tuesday as well as Tuesday night. Brief sub-SCA conditions
forecast for midweek for all waters before winds and seas
increase Thursday into Thursday night with potential return of
SCA conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM