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593
FXUS61 KOKX 291131
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
731 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCA issued for the ocean waters out to 20nm for Friday
afternoon/night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A dry cold frontal passage on Friday will be followed by
another strong area of high pressure for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A shortwave trough riding over top of the upper ridge will send
a cold front toward the area today, with the frontal passage
Friday morning. Another area of strong high pressure builds into
the area for the weekend with more autum-like airmass. System
is moisture starved and any shower activity with the front is
forecast to remain north of the area.

Gusty NW winds will follow behind the cold front Friday with the
potential for gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. NBM and NBM90
looked too deficient in the cold advection based on 00Z model
soundings. This is a noted bias. Used a blend of the raw GFS, NAM12
and NBM/NBM90.

Temperatures today into Friday will be about 10 degrees above
normal, with highs in the 60s to around 70, and lows mainly in
the 50s. However, it cools back down to more seasonable levels
for the weekend with highs in the 50s to around 60, and lows in
the 30s and 40s. Frost is possible Saturday night for some
coastal locations where the growing season has yet to end.

Guidance continues to keep dry conditions in place through
early next week. Conditions may begin to turn more unsettled by
mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains nearby throughout the TAF period.

VFR conditions continue.

Winds will primarily be light and variable through the morning push.
Winds become more SW mid morning, with wind speeds around 7 to
10 kt during the afternoon and early evening. Winds remain from
the SW but lighten a bit Thursday night.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday through Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt possible Fri
afternoon.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Monday: Manly VFR. Low chance of a shower with pockets of sub VFR
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA has been issued for the ocean waters out to 20nm for Friday
afternoon/night.

A cold frontal passage Friday morning will be followed by a
gusty NW flow developing during the afternoon hours with gusts
up to 30 kt into the first half of Friday night.

The SCA may need to be extended to the non-ocean waters. For the
time, there is a mention of occasional 25 kt gusts.

High pressure builds in for the weekend with sub-SCA conditions
expected into at least early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW