What's Happening In Newington

194
FXUS61 KOKX 070641
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
241 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes as no impactful weather is expected. Only
added a low end shower chance for portions of the area for late
tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Briefly drying out for the most part late this week, before
another round of mainly light rain moves through during the first
half of the weekend.

2) A frontal wave passes nearby and just to the southeast Sunday
night into Monday night bringing another round of rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front which pushed through during the overnight moves further
to the east today. A few showers may clip eastern portions of the
area early on, otherwise expect some clearing for the late morning
and afternoon. A NW flow regime and lowering dew points will result
in seasonable temperatures and dry conditions with temperatures
generally climbing well into the 60s. There is a sneaky weak
disturbance in relation to a shortwave which pushes in late tonight.
BUFKIT forecast soundings indicate a weak warm nose at around 7 kft.
Some of the convective allowing near term modeling indicates
reflectivity with showers around getting closer to and just after
midnight. Thus have gone against NBM consensus guidance where PoPs
were non-existent in previous runs and have introduces low end
chance to slight chance showers, mainly from the 04z to 08z time
frame and mostly for the western 2/3rds of the area. Any rainfall
would be quite light with only up to a few hundredths of QPF.

Friday looks to be predominantly dry, however some of the shorter
term guidance is suggestive of a few widely scattered or isolated
showers at any point during the day. NBM keeps the region dry as far
as PoPs go, but cannot rule out a few hit and miss showers, but
overall not a bad day with mainly partly sunny skies with seasonable
temperatures mainly in the 60s once again on a brisk W wind.

Another shortwave will round the longwave trough in the east during
Saturday. This shortwave feature will have slightly more amplitude
than the previous and should initiate more mid level warm advection
resulting in a widespread light rainfall towards late Saturday
morning and into Saturday afternoon / evening. A few tenths up to a
half inch of rain is expected with this weak area of low pressure
which will push away Saturday night.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Another frontal system approaches late in the weekend after a warmer
day on Sunday. There are some timing difference with NWP and AI
guidance. Going with a mainly dry day on Sunday with shower chances
increasing very late Sunday afternoon further west, and then further
east into the evening as the front draws closer. Widespread likely
PoPs get introduced later Sunday night and carry into Monday morning
before the front pushes offshore for late Monday. This looks like
another non impactful, but beneficial rainfall for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front has passed through the area and is exiting
southeast into tomorrow. Simultaneously, a surface trough will
pass through the area today. High pressure builds into the
region from the south into tomorrow.

Primarily VFR. Some MVFR is possible through 12Z due to one last
round of showers.

Primarily NW winds today around 10 kt. SW/SSW sea breezes are
possible late in the day at KJFK, KLGA, KISP, and possibly KGON.
Winds diminish this evening, 6-8 kt at some terminals while
outlying terminals drop to 5 kt or below into the early
overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of showers through daybreak could be off by 1-3 hours.

While VFR is prevailed in the TAFs, periods of MVFR could
continue through 12Z in passing showers.

Confidence is lower in sea breezes occurring at KLGA, though it
is still high enough to include in the TAFs. No sea breeze is
in the TAF for KEWR, but there is still a low probability that
it could occur.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. SW to W wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts diminish at
night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower with showers north and west of NYC
terminals during the day, otherwise VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower at
night for all terminals with showers likely. Southerly wind gusts 15-
20 kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Monday: Showers likely early, chance of showers afternoon into
evening. MVFR or lower possible day into early eve. Mainly VFR
thereafter at night. SW to NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
5 ft seas may linger briefly on the eastern most ocean waters until
midday, otherwise sub advisory conditions should prevail for the
late week period. An occasional gust of 20 to 25 kt cannot be ruled
out during the day on Friday on a W wind for some of the nearshore
zones. Relatively light winds can be expected Friday night, followed
by an increasing S wind during Saturday. This will likely result in
small craft conditions developing by Saturday afternoon on the ocean
waters, along with the southern and eastern bays of LI and eastern
portions of LI Sound. More marginal small craft gusts are likely
elsewhere. Sub advisory conditions should then follow into Sunday
for the majority of the waters, with perhaps the eastern ocean
waters flirting with marginal small craft seas at times. Behind a
cold front during the second half of Monday a period of small craft
conditions are possible on a N to NW wind.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE