What's Happening In Newington

070
FXUS61 KOKX 132008
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
408 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Statements and Advisories are in effect for
tonight`s high tide cycle for portions of the coast, and have
also been issued for the Sunday evening/ night high tide cycle.

High Rip Current Risk for ocean beaches Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The potential exists for strong to severe thunderstorms late
Sunday afternoon and evening.

2) High rip current risk for ocean beaches Sunday.

3) Minor coastal flooding for portions of the coast for the evening
high tide cycles through Sunday evening / night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for the majority of
the CWA, with a marginal risk across far eastern sections in the
convective outlook for later Sunday. Forecast soundings are
suggestive of some capping / convective inhibition in the lower
portions of the mid levels. Instability is progged to decrease
further northeast and east across the region, with moderate
instability further west and southwest. One favorable aspect to
convective chances is around storm organization as shear values
would be sufficient and progged around 40 kt or thereabouts late in
the day, and increasing further into the evening. However, with the
aforementioned inhibition potential with a weak elevated warm front
possibly existing in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold
front, convection and especially severe convection potential is
quite conditional. If some updrafts can break through then there
would be a strong to damaging wind threat with any storms as low
level lapse rates are high and with LCLs slightly elevated there
could be strong downdraft wind potential. At this point in time
storm rotation and the best supercell potential appears to reside
just south of the area. Will continue to monitor this for a
potential shift further north into our area. At this time the
potential for hail and localized flash flooding is marginal at best
as storms are expected to move along, and the relatively higher mid-
level lapse rate potential residing just west and southwest of the
region. The timeframe for any strong to severe thunderstorm activity
is from approximately from 4 pm to 10 pm as the cold front is
expected to pass through from west to east around 12 am to 6 am
Monday.

On a side note; though it will be quite warm to hot on Sunday,
humidity levels are not forecast to be overly oppressive with dew
point readings forecast to remain primarily in the lower half of the
60s. This should lead to heat indices below 95, and closer to 90
across the warmest locations. Thus heat headlines should not be
needed for Sunday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A high rip current risk is in place for all ocean beaches for
Sunday. For the more eastern ocean beaches the risk may be more on a
moderate scale initially, but by the mid to late afternoon a S wind
increasing should produce strong rip currents. Winds will increase
out of the south at 15 to 20 kt for western beaches, and more like
10 to 15 kt out east. Surf heights look to peak at around 3 to 4 ft
along with a lingering 6 to 8 second swell component out of the
southeast. The risk should fall to a moderate level on Monday,
however it is not out of the question that the high risk could
linger into a portion of Monday.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The risk of brief minor coastal flooding for the more vulnerable
locations of Fairfield CT, NE NJ, Staten Island, and some of
the western south shore bays of Nassau and Queens has increased
slightly for tonight. Any minor coastal flooding will likely
become a little more common for the Sunday evening / night high
tide. Any statements for SW CT, and So. Nassau have been
upgraded to an advisory for tonight, with minor flooding even
more likely now for Sunday night which now includes a good
portion of NE NJ and Staten Island, and Queens where statements
and adivisories have been included. Also portions of Southeast
Suffolk will approach minor flood benchmarks for Sunday night as
well as Lower Westchester. With tides being astronomically
high, minor coastal flood for some or most of these same
locations could linger into Monday and Tuesday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with high pressure overhead. Local sea breezes may impact
coastal terminals this afternoon.

W winds will gradually back to the SW-S at coastal sites into
this afternoon. A few gusts 15-20 kt are possible at the
coastal terminals--more occassional than frequent. Seabreeze is
forecast at KJFK between about 2300 - 0100Z. Light SW winds
tonight.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts up to 15-20 kt possible into the afternoon.

Timing of winds backing to the SW-S at KJFK could vary by 1-3
hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
late afternoon and evening with MVFR or lower possible at times.
S-SW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions in
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions in
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions prevail tonight into mid morning on Sunday.
Towards midday and into the afternoon small craft conditions develop
and should continue through about midnight as a southerly wind
increases, and then conditions subside from west to east with all
zones likely returning to sub advisory conditions by 6 am Monday.
Sub advisory conditions will continue Monday through Wednesday.
During the late afternoon hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday a few
gusts may approach 20 kt, more so for the western ocean so a few
brief periods of marginal small craft gusts cannot be ruled out,
however mainly sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 13:
KEWR: 74/2005
KBDR: 71/2017
KNYC: 77/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 72/2017
KISP: 70/1969

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday
     for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ074-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from Sunday morning through Sunday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 3 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday
     night for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday
     night for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...JE