What's Happening In Newington

473
FXUS61 KOKX 210144
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
844 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter storm watches have been issued for the entire area for
Sunday into Monday.

Coastal flood watches have also been issued for much of the Long
Island shoreline and along western Long Island Sound for Sunday
night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Weak low pressure passing to the south will bring light
precipitation tonight, then an approaching weakening low will
bring another round of light precipitation Saturday night.

2) An intense coastal storm will likely bring a heavy wet
snowfall and strong winds from Sunday into Monday. Near
blizzard to blizzard conditions may be possible along the coast
from Sunday night into Monday morning.

3) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal
flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional
coastal flooding is possible on Monday.

4) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for
precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the
40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface trough extending from the low passing to the SE tonight
is still producing light rain across S CT and Long Island.
Temperatures will fall to the upper 20s to mid 30s, warmest
across the NYC metro area, so not expected all snow, but rather
a rain/snow mix there and for parts of Long Island.

The next chance for precipitation comes Saturday night as a
broad area of low pressure ejects out of the Great Lakes region
toward the area thanks to an approaching upper level shortwave
trough. The shortwave and low will transfer energy into the
developing offshore Mid Atlantic storm for Sunday. With
continued weak lift and the system weakening as a whole, again
do not expect much in the way of precipitation. Again,
temperatures remain above freezing in NYC and around freezing
for Long Island, so precipitation will start off as rain or
rain/snow mix with snow farther inland. The rain/snow line moves
south through the night as an ENE flow strengthens. A dusting
to a coating of accumulation is possible through daybreak Sunday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Confidence has increased enough to warrant winter storm watch
issuance for the entire CWA. Latest 12Z guidance coming into
better agreement on potent northern stream shortwave energy
diving SW from wrn Canada and the northern Plains into the
plains and mid Mississippi valley by Sunday morning, phasing
with southern stream coming out of the SW states and Mexico to
carve out a deep closed low aloft over the Mid Atlantic and
induce rapid cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic coast, with the
surface low bombing out from from 1008 mb off the N Carolina
coast Sunday morning to 970-975 mb near 38-39N/71W by Monday
morning, then passing just outside the 40N/70W benchmark Monday
afternoon, GFS still more intense and closer to the coast than
the ECMWF, with its heaviest snow bands directly over the area
as opposed to just offshore. NAM and SREF have both trended
toward a heavier snowfall scenario as well, which has been a
good signal in past heavy snowfall events.

Snow should start Sunday morning, and may mix with rain at times
especially in the NYC metro area, NE NJ and western Long Island.
Then as precip intensity picks up later in the day Sunday
p-type should become all snow throughout. Heaviest snow looks to
fall from late day Sunday into Monday morning, then snow tapers
off Monday afternoon.

Greatest likelihood of seeing 6+ inches will be along the coast,
especially eastern Long Island where up to a foot of
accumulation is possible. Winds will also be strong Sunday night
into Monday morning especially along the coast as the sfc low
deepens, with blowing and drifting snow and some downed tree
limbs as winds gust to at least 40-45 mph, and possible blizzard
conditions in Suffolk, and near blizzard conditions elsewhere
along the coast including NYC. NAM/GFS both signal potential for
wind gusts to 60 mph late Sunday night into Monday morning,
though these winds can sometimes be overdone in heavy snow
events. If trends for heavy snow and strong winds continue to
increase and expand northward, the potential for blizzard
conditions could encompass all coastal areas.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...

Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce
a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to
locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western
Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island
Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY
Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long
Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday
night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized
overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into
Monday morning.

Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the
Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow
limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...

There are two features, a weak wave of low pressure midweek and a
passing cold front towards late week that will give these next
potential precipitation events. With the absence of offshore
cyclogenesis in the forecast mid to late week, there will not be as
much potential for the precipitation to grow with subsequent
forecasts. Aloft, the flow in mid levels and is not too amplified
and mostly zonal outside of a quick shortwave giving brief
amplification early Friday.

High temperatures forecast Tuesday will be getting to low to mid
30s, then upper 30s to near 40 Wednesday, more in the 40s Thursday
and then back to upper 30s to near 40 next Friday. This will allow
for snowmelt each day and with mostly sub-freezing temperatures at
night into early morning, subsequent refreeze of snow melt.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure passes near the terminals this evening. Weak high
pressure builds in for Saturday.

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions continue this evening with
lingering mist, rain and drizzle. Improvement may happen quicker
tonight than previously forecast. VFR possible in NYC by around
midnight, a few hours later farther east.

Winds diminish this evening and back around to the WNW tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Improvement to MVFR and VFR may happen quicker than previously
thought tonight.

Amendments likely for changing flight categories, mainly to
adjust for timing.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday: VFR to start. MVFR/IFR conditions are becoming
increasingly likely in developing snow Sunday. E/NE winds
G20-25 kt, becoming NE-N Sunday night with G30-35 kt. Highest
winds and gusts are expected at the coastal terminals. Winds
could be stronger depending on a coastal low track. Potential
for LLWS Sunday night with 50kt at 2kft.

Monday: MVFR or lower in snow. N winds G30-35 kt. Winds could
be stronger depending on coastal low track.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in snow or rain/snow mix possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas were 1-2 ft above forecast at 44065, so have extended the
SCA for the ocean W of Fire Island Inlet through tonight.
East of there, SCA remains in effect through 11 AM Sat, with
seas 5-7 ft and E winds gusting up to 25 kt early this evening.

Storm watch issued for the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet for
Sunday night into Mon as N-NE winds with the intense coastal
storm could gust to 50-55 kt. Gale watch in effect for the
remaining waters for gusts to 45 kt. Seas could peak as high as
12-19 ft on the ocean, 6- 10 ft on the Sound E of Orient, and
5-7 ft on the open central Sound waters, from late Sunday night
into Mon morning. Conditions ramp down to SCA on all waters for
Mon night.

SCA potential remains Tuesday through Thursday on the ocean. Non-
ocean waters will have SCA potential for wind gusts Tuesday and
mainly below SCA wind gusts Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With the potential major snowstorm Sunday into Monday, there is
the potential for some snowfall records to be broken. Here are
the records for Sunday and Monday for the climate sites:

                      Sun 2/22      Mon 2/23

Central Park, NY:     6.0/2008      4.8/1972
LaGuardia, NY:        6.4/2008      4.1/1972
John F Kennedy, NY:   6.9/2008      6.1/1987
Newark, NJ:           6.8/2008      4.1/1987
Islip, NY:            5.5/2008      6.7/1987
Bridgeport, CT:       7.0/2008      2.6/1987

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday
     afternoon for CTZ005>012.
     Coastal Flood Watch late Sunday night for CTZ009-010.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Watch late Sunday night for NYZ071-073-078-176-
     177.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday
     night for NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday
     night for NYZ080-179.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353.
     Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/JP/NV
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...Goodman/JP