What's Happening In Newington

014
FXUS61 KOKX 111500
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1000 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Probabilities have trended lower for the late Sunday into
Monday potential storm event.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Impacts are not anticipated through at least Saturday.
Conditions potentially meeting advisory or warning criteria are
not expected.

2) There is a chance for light rain and/or snow late Sunday
through Monday. Uncertainty remains high, and probabilities have
trended lower.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Dry weather is anticipated through Saturday with only a stray snow
shower or flurry possible Friday night due to a shortwave and
surface trough shifting through. Very limited to no impacts with
this. Temperatures still below normal, but highs each day at
least in the 30s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A lot of uncertainty remains with low pressure passing to the
south of the area Sunday into Monday night. NBM probabilities
have trended down with this system, and global models are now
showing that upper ridging will remain across the central US and
into the Great Lakes, and moving into the northeast US Friday
and into the weekend as an upper shortwave moves into the
southwest US and then rides under the ridge across the southern
tier. At the surface a reinforcing high builds out of central
Canada and suppresses the surface low well to the south as the
low reaches the East Coast by late this weekend. The area will
be on the northern edge of the storm, with the chance of light
snow and/or rain. If trends continue there is the possibility
that the area could remain dry through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west today.

VFR. WNW winds increase thru late morning, with gusts around 25
kt developing. A few gusts may approach 30 kt. Gusts persist
for most terminals tonight, though may become more occasional or
subside for a period after 6Z Thu. Similar flow expected on
Thursday, with frequent gusts returning everywhere after 12Z,
though direction veers a bit more NW.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts may exceed 30 kt this afternoon.

Gusts overnight into Thu AM may be more occasional at times.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. WNW winds G15-20kt.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of snow inland and either
snow/rain at the NYC metros/coast at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions for all waters through the day Thursday. An
occasional gust to gale force is possible for the ocean waters
this afternoon/evening. SCA cond could last into Thu night on
the ocean.

Winds and seas then fall below advisory levels beginning Friday,
and lasting through Sunday night. There is uncertainty with
the track of low pressure passing to the south Sunday night: if
the low tracks a little farther to the north, then wind gusts on
the ocean will be near SCA levels later in the weekend. However,
latest trends have been to keep the low track farther south.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC/JC
AVIATION...DBR/DR
MARINE...BC/JC