What's Happening In Newington

593
FXUS61 KOKX 190603
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
203 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry conditions tonight with low clouds and possible fog,
especially near the coast.

2) Minor flood benchmarks forecast to be reached or exceeded at many
coastal locations for tonight`s high tide cycles across the
western Long Island Sound.

3) Showers on Sunday with a cold front transition to much
colder air early next week.

4) A warming trend begins Wednesday leading to above normal
temperatures to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

A frontal system approaches tonight. Much of the night will be
dry with the main concern revolving around potential fog,
especially near the coast, due to onshore flow and warmer air
above the surface. Confidence in any dense fog is low at this
time, but will have to monitor trends this evening. Forecast
soundings indicate some mixing in the lowest levels, which may
prevent visibilities from dropping to a quarter mile or less.
Any showers should hold off till very late and more towards day
break well NW of the NYC metro.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

The combination of the recent new moon and an E/SE flow will
produce water levels at or just above minor coastal flood
benchmarks around the time of high tide overnight for areas in
the western Long Island Sound. Most tidal locations need water
levels of 0.5 to 1 1/2 ft above normal to make this happen.
Latest surge guidance is in decent agreement for this to happen,
however, there was a slight downward adjustment in some
locations.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...

The aforementioned cold front will move across the region
Sunday morning. Some showers are possible ahead of the front,
but much of the activity will follow the front. Most of the
support for showers on Sunday comes from forcing ahead of the
mid and upper level trough and approaching strong upper level
jet. While a brief downpour cannot be ruled out, the majority of
the showers will be light to moderate with no concerns for any
hydrologic impacts. There is little to no CAPE, so have left
mention of thunder out of the forecast. Total rainfall remains
on the light side with amounts around two to four tenths,
highest inland. The shower activity should quickly end from west
to east mid to late afternoon.

High temperature on Sunday will occur early in the day.
Temperatures will fall behind the front, with 40s likely across
the area by mid to late afternoon. Cold advection will continue
Sunday night with temperatures bottoming out in the mid to
upper 30s for most spots and low 40s in the NYC metro. There
should be enough of a breeze and dewpoint depressions to prevent
frost formation where the growing season has begun.

Sprawling high pressure gradually builds towards the area early
next week. Temperatures will end up 10-15 degrees below normal
on Monday. Cyclonic flow and steep lapse rates with a cold pool
aloft should lead to the development of stratocu Monday
afternoon. Continue to carry slight chance PoPs (~20%), with
potential for a few brief pop up showers. A few could even
contain ice pellets across the northern interior.

The coldest temperatures early next week appear likely Monday
night with clear skies and light winds helping to efficiently
cool the BL. A widespread freeze appears likely outside the
urban NYC metro, with lows ranging from the mid 20s across the
interior to mid 30s in the city, or about 10 to 15 degrees below
normal. A freeze watch will eventually be needed for the
interior and potentially portions of the coast. Temperatures
in the NYC metro should remain in the mid to upper 30s.

Temperatures will remain below normal on Tuesday with high
temperatures in the low to mid 50s. The high pressure shifts
offshore Tuesday night. This will set the stage for a weak return
flow and a milder night compared to Monday night.


.KEY MESSAGE 4...

A warm front lifts north of the area on Wednesday and will be
quickly followed by a weak cold front late in the day. An isolated
shower is possible. The main story will be temperatures beginning to
warm closer to normal on Wednesday. Despite the cold front passage,
warmer air is expected on Thursday with a NW downslope flow with
highs in the 60s for most places and lower 70s in the NYC/NE NJ
metro. Similar temperatures are possible to end the week along with
dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching cold front and wave of low pressure moves into
the region toward this morning, and moving east of the area
during the afternoon. Weak high pressure briefly builds Sunday
evening.

IFR to LIFR ceilings remain across the region with visibilities
varying from VFR to LIFR in fog, with areas of drizzle. Showers
move into the area, ahead of and with a cold front, from the
west toward morning, with conditions improving slightly,
remaining IFR until late morning, with MVFR. An isolated
thunderstorm remains possible this morning , however, with low
coverage and uncertainty with where, have not included in the
TAFs. Showers will be possible after a cold front passage, with
improving conditions to high end MVFR and then becoming VFR.

Winds generally light E/SE to variable overnight, shifting to NW
and becoming gusty with a cold front passage. Highest winds and
gusts will likely be a few hours after frontal passage. with
gusts and winds diminishing during the afternoon. Gusts end
early in the evening.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

High confidence in winds. Medium to low confidence in timing
and extent of lower ceilings and visibilities overnight into
early morning. Amendments likely.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night: VFR.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers. NW winds G20kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Fog is possible this evening into tonight. However, confidence
in dense fog remains low at this time. Otherwise, conditions
will remain below SCA levels through tonight.

A cold front crosses the waters early Sunday. NW flow increases
behind the front, leading to marginal SCA wind gusts on the near
shore ocean waters, LI Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor. Nearshore
ocean seas will likely remain below 5 ft. Winds and seas subside
Sunday night with conditions remaining below SCA levels through the
middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ071-078-176-177.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS/DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS