What's Happening In Newington

330
FXUS61 KOKX 071756
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
Issued by National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
156 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Passing sprinkles or light rain showers
in southern CT and southern NY tonight and Friday afternoon but
no impact.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry on Friday with the exception of an isolated shower,
followed by round of rain moving through the first half of the
weekend.

2) Another round of rain Sunday night through much of the day
Monday. Potential for periods of showers mid to late week next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak shortwave trough moves through the region tonight. While
moisture is overall limited, soundings show mid-level moisture
advecting which may be enough to support a few showers or sprinkles
and clouds overnight. Any rain accumulation is expected to be light
(< 0.10").

Expect a mainly dry day for Friday with westerly winds. Another weak
disturbance moves through the flow aloft in the afternoon with
another "push" of mid-level moisture. This may result in a few
isolated showers in the afternoon. High temperatures are expexted to
be seasonable in the 60s.

Another shortwave trough shifts across on Saturday. This wave will
be more supported and organized resulting in higher amounts of
moisture advecting as a warm front pushes northward. This will
support widespread rain across the region Saturday. A few showers
are possible overnight Friday night, although the bulk of the rain
arrives early Saturday morning. Rain tapers off into scattered
showers in the afternoon, exiting by evening. Ensemble guidance
shows a general consensus of total rain amounts ranging from 0.25"
to 0.50".

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another system approaches the region on Sunday. It more likely
remains dry during the day with a low risk for an isolated shower.
High temperatures are likely to be on the mild side in the upper
60s/70s. There is general agreement among model guidance for the
main batch of rain arriving in the Sunday night to early Monday
morning timeframe. Although there are some subtle differences in the
exact timing. Isolated to scattered showers are possible in the
evening ahead of the main system. This should bring another round of
beneficial and low impact rain to the region.

Tuesday trends mainly dry with seasonable temperatures. Confidence
in the details of the weather pattern decrease mid to late next
week. A good percentage of guidance indicates a trend to an active
pattern mid to late week with a few rounds of showers possible.
Timing details still uncertain at this time. The ECMWF and ensemble
in particular lean a bit on the drier side, so just something to
keep monitoring. Overall, we could see a transition to a more
unsetled period with showers later in the week next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure is ridging in across the airspace with cold front
now having passed into the waters. A weak and fast-moving
disturbance moves across the Lower Hudson Valley and southern
Connecticut overnight tonight before high pressure returns for
Friday.

VFR through the period. Increased NW winds to around 10-13 kt,
with some occasional gusts to no more than 20 kt through 22-23z
before becoming light westerly. JFK, EWR, LGA and ISP have the
best chance to see seabreezes late in the day as NW gradient
relaxes but chances are decreasing. Passing disturbance late
tonight (after 06z thru 12z) could bring sprinkles or light rain
showers at worst mainly for SWF and perhaps BDR/GON but with no
visby reduction and westerly winds less than 10 kt. SCT-OVC VFR
ceilings for Friday, greater coverage north and west of NYC
with low risk for pop-up -SHRA, with WSW winds around 10-13 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

NW winds around 8-12 kt should prevail most of the day. Low
risk for seabreeze late today (after 21z) at JFK, LGA and
perhaps EWR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower with showers north and west of NYC
terminals during the day, otherwise VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower at
night for all terminals with showers likely. Southerly wind gusts 15-
20 kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Monday: Showers likely early, chance of showers afternoon into
evening. MVFR or lower possible day into early eve. Mainly VFR
thereafter at night. SW to NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NW winds gusting to around 15-20 kt decrease tonight while
becoming light westerly overnight. Westerly breezes to near-SCA
levels on Friday around 20-25 kt which could warrant SCAs in
later updates. Seas mainly 4 ft or less all waters.

Better chance at SCAs on Saturday with southerly winds 10-15 kt
and gusts to 25 kt with outer-waters seas 4-6 ft, with periods
of rain showers which could briefly reduce visibility. Sub-SCA
westerly winds and lowering seas for Sunday which continue into
Monday.

Passage of a cold front Monday night offers another potential
period of NW winds to SCA criterion.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mensch/Loconto
AVIATION...Mensch/Loconto
MARINE...Mensch/Loconto