What's Happening In Newington

229
FXUS61 KOKX 080706
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
306 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A round of wet weather Saturday and Saturday evening.

2) Mainly dry on Sunday, followed by another round of rain Sunday
night and during a portion of Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a predominantly dry day today, another shortwave will round
the longwave trough in the east during the first half of the weekend
on Saturday. This shortwave feature has consistently been progged by
NWP and AI global guidance, with the higher res convective allowing
models now advertising much of the same. Thus, confidence has
increased around wet conditions during Saturday and Saturday
evening. The best forcing appears to be centered around Saturday
afternoon and early Saturday evening. NWP consensus guidance is
pointing towards a half inch of rain on average. Some guidance hints
at at slightly higher totals along with a hint of elevated
instability. With a southerly flow off the colder ocean the lower
levels will remain stable, thus just a slight chance of thunder due
to a minimal amount of elevated instability. Clouds will keep
temperatures a bit below normal Saturday. The shortwave exits
Saturday night with NVA and dry advection late Saturday night into
Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another frontal system approaches late in the weekend. Mother`s Day
looks to have a pleasant start, with clouds arriving in the
afternoon from west to east. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer
and a touch above normal on Mother`s Day on a WSW flow. There remain
some timing difference with NWP and AI guidance on how quickly the
front progresses. Going with a mainly dry day on Sunday with shower
chances increasing very late Sunday afternoon further west, and then
further east into the evening as the front draws closer. Widespread
likely PoPs get introduced later Sunday night and carry into Monday
morning before the front pushes offshore for late Monday. This looks
like another non impactful, but beneficial rainfall for the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The TAF period features weak high pressure to the south and periodic
weak disturbances passing through.

Mainly VFR conditions expected. However, brief low end VFR to brief
MVFR may be possible with any rain shower activity before daybreak.

Winds have shifted NW 5-10 kt with arrival of showers. Winds should
lighten late but then become more WNW by daybreak, increasing at
first to around or just over 10 kt, then to around 15 kt with gusts
20-25 kt in the afternoon. Winds diminish tonight and then become SW-
S less than 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Saturday: Showers with MVFR expected, IFR possible. Slight chance of
a late day tstm. S winds 15G20-25kt at KISP and 10-15G20 at the NYC
metros/KBDR.KGON. Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. SW winds G15-20kt at the NYC metros.

Sunday night: Showers with MVFR or lower cond, in the evening at
KSWF/KHPN, then elsewhere after midnight.

Monday: Showers with MVFR or lower cond, tapering off during the
late afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Occasional gusts of 20 to 25 kt take place today on a W wind,
especially for many of the nearshore zones. Relatively light winds
can be expected tonight, with sub advisory conditions prevailing
through early Saturday morning. An increasing S wind takes shape
Saturday with small craft conditions developing towards midday on
the ocean waters and the southern and eastern bays of LI, and
shortly thereafter for eastern portions of LI Sound. Sub advisory
gusts of closer to 20 kt are likely for the western non-ocean
waters. Sub advisory conditions should then take shape Saturday
evening from west to east across the non-ocean waters, with the
ocean waters maintaining primarily 5 ft seas into a portion of
Sunday morning. Marginal small craft seas likely linger on the
eastern ocean through Sunday, otherwise sub advisory conditions
prevail. Behind a cold front during the second half of Monday a
period of marginal small craft conditions are possible on a N to NW
wind, with similar conditions continuing into Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-
     332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JE