What's Happening In Newington

271
FXUS61 KOKX 241427
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
927 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure departs as a surface high builds from the west
today into tonight. Weak low pressure will pass to the southwest
while a weak cold front moves through on Christmas Day, with
high pressure briefly returning at night. Another low will pass
to the south from Friday into Saturday, followed by another
frontal system late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure then
returns for Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* A dry, breezy day in store with near seasonable temperatures.

Surface high pressure begins to build into the area behind a
departing low pressure off the New England coast. A drier
airmass will overspread the area today, with a pressure
gradient intact and northwest winds gusting at times close to or
just over 30mph. Clouds will be on the decrease as the high
builds over the region, and winds will slacken this afternoon as
the pressure gradient relaxes.

For tonight, winds shift southerly as the high moves offshore.
Clouds will be on the increase once again as a weak upper
disturbance approaches. Low temperatures tonight will be near
normal, in the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Christmas Day looks mainly dry, with a mid level wave/sfc
trough quickly moving through the region. Have maintained a
slight chance for a brief late morning rain/snow shower across
Long Island, NYC, and areas north and east. No accumulation
expected. Highs will once again be in the lower 40s. Winds shift
from SW to NW in the afternoon with the cold fropa, with the
main push of colder air coming at night. Low temps Thu night
will range from the lower 20s in the NYC metro area and
surrounding suburbs, to the teens elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
What`s Changed: There have been no significant changes to the
forecast. Confidence continues to increase in a period of
accumulating snowfall from Friday afternoon into Saturday.


Key Points:

* An accumulating, plowable snowfall is becoming more likely
  Friday afternoon into Saturday. Winter weather headlines may
  be needed later today or tonight for portions of the area.

* Chances for light snow or a wintry mix changing to rain
  Sunday into early Monday.

There has not been much change in the forecast thinking this
update.  A series of disturbances will impact the region,
resulting in a period of unsettled weather in the long term.
Global models and their associated ensemble systems continue to
highlight weak upper ridging over the Northeast with a shortwave
quickly passing through late Friday into Saturday. Brief upper
ridging then builds in Sunday before a stronger closed low
approaches the northeast into early next week.

At the surface, a cold high pressure centered over Quebec heads
to the east as a surface low traverses the OH Valley, through
PA and generally south of the local forecast area by 12Z
Saturday. There continues to be some uncertainty on the storm
track with this system, as the guidance continues to shift north
and south from cycle to cycle. The ultimate track will
determine both precipitation types (rain/snow) and
accumulations, though an all snow event is looking more
probable for the entire CWA.

Given the model consensus has the local area on the north side
of the system, with cold air already in place via the
departing surface high, thermal profiles are suggestive of a
period of decent snow growth from late Friday into early
Saturday across much of the CWA. Best h7 frontogenetic forcing
appears from NYC on south by 06Z Saturday, though this feature
continues to wiggle with the sfc low track. One noticeable
difference with the latest guidance is that ensemble based model
QPF (WPC WSE in particular) has trended down bit more with the
00Z guidance suite, with now a widespread 0.25 to 0.6" across
the area, with highest amounts from NYC on west and south There
does appear to be a moisture connection to the system currently
heading toward the West Coast, with PWATs of 0.5" - 1.0" inbound
by late Friday.

All said, this should translate into at least an advisory level
snowfall of 2-5" for much of the CWA Friday into Saturday, with
a chance, though lowered as of this update, of warning criteria
snow (6+") especially north and west of NYC. This would occur
where any banding can set up for a period of time. Have elected
to hold off on any winter weather watches at this time given the
00Z model trends and decreasing WPC WSO that now depicts a
10-30% of exceeding 6" across NENJ, SW CT and the LoHud Valley.
Depending on trends as we get closer, winter weather watches, or
advisories may be needed for these areas.

Thereafter, low pressure with a cold front quickly approaches on
Sunday. This system is currently forecast to track northwest,
well inland of the region, with the precipitation being mainly a
snow/rain/ice mix, particularly for LoHud and interior S CT
Saturday evening. The winter precipitation will then go over
to all rain for a time Sunday. Dry weather looks to then return
late Monday after the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure tracks further offshore as high pressure builds in
from the west.

VFR.

Gusty NW winds continue much of the day with winds
15-20g25-35kt, occasional higher gusts possible through 17Z.
Winds begin to lighten by mid to late afternoon, and gusts
abate into the early evening. Flow goes light and variable
tonight, before SW becomes established Thu AM, veering W into
late morning as gusts toward 20 kt return.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated gusts above 35 kt possible this morning and early
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR. W/NW gusts 20 kt.

Friday: VFR in the morning, becoming IFR w/snow later in the
afternoon and evening. IFR w/ snow Friday night.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR with AM snow. Improving to VFR by afternoon.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR with rain likely.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning is now in effect for the ocean waters through
23Z, 6 PM EST with gusts peaking to 35 kt, and occasionally
higher to 38 kt, and seas peaking at 5-8 ft. On the non ocean
waters, SCA remains in effect, running through this evening,
for NW winds gusting to 30 kt.

Conditions quickly subside late this afternoon as high pressure
builds from the west.

SCA cond should return to the ocean waters after a cold frontal
passage Thu afternoon and continue into Thu night, with NW flow
gusting to 25-30 kt and seas 4-6 ft. The non ocean waters lay
also see gusts to 25-30 kt late Thu afternoon into Thu evening.
Some 5-ft seas may linger on the outer ocean waters Fri morning.

Another low will pass near the waters Fri-Sat with SCA conditions
developing on the ocean waters Fri night, and continuing into Sat.
Wind gusts/seas fall below advisory levels Sat evening as high
pressure briefly builds in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR/MET
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DR/MET
MARINE...DBR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DBR