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223
FXUS61 KOKX 161825
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
225 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Friday, and
again Sunday afternoon and evening.

3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher in much colder
weather for the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Friday will be the last of the really warm temperatures this
week, although not as warm as today. Expect temperatures on
Friday to be in the 70s and lower 80s. This will still be a good
15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Still felt
like parts of long Island were too cool on the NBM, (which has
been the case all week) so I did manually adjust the
temperatures up a bit. There will also be more cloud cover along
with a chance for some showers.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

A frontal boundary remains stalled north of the forecast area
through tonight. A wave of low pressure will travel along the
front which may result in some showers overnight, however the
better forcing for showers and thunderstorms remains north of
the forecast area.

As the surface front starts to drop southward late tonight into
Friday morning, expect the chance for showers to increase a
bit, however most of the forecast guidance has most of the
precipitation dissipating as it approaches the area. Will keep
just slight chance POPs with the frontal passage early Friday.

It looks like the best chances for any shower/thunder
development will be focused on the eastern sections of the CWA
late Friday into Friday evening as an upper level trough moves
across the area. CAMs seem to be focusing on an area of eastern
CT and possibly the Twin Forks. Have bumped up POPs a bit here
to likely. NBM thunder chances seem low, but probably just
enough to warrant the need to mention a chance of thunder.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...

A stronger cold front will move across the region on Sunday,
bringing another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms.

Good cold air advection kicks in on a NW flow behind the front
and temperatures quickly fall by late in the evening and
overnight. Any lingering areas of rain may mix with some sleet
or snow as the precipitation comes to an end. Lows Sunday night
drop into the 30s, except near 40 in the NYC metro area.

The cold pool aloft builds in Mon with 1000-500mb thicknesses
around 520dam. The steep lapse rates should allow for at least
isold-sct shwrs, possibly mixed with snow or ice pellets. The
NBM pops may be a bit too low. Temperatures Monday night will
range from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A prefrontal trough moves across the area this evening followed
by a cold front passage on Friday.

Mainly VFR. A few showers are possible across the Lower Hudson
Valley this evening after 01z. Isolated showers are also possible
overnight elsewhere, but not enough confidence/coverage to
include in TAF at this time. PROB30s for showers have been
added for NYC terminals and KSWF for Friday afternoon/early
evening with the cold front passage.

S winds 10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts around 20 kt
possible. Gusts should end around 00z with sustained winds
falling below 10 kt overnight. Winds will veer to the NW early
Friday morning and then the NE late Friday afternoon and
evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may end up occasional this afternoon at LGA, EWR, and TEB.

Timing of wind shifts may be off by 1-3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: Chance of showers, mainly in the afternoon and early
evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, especially at night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR ceilings.

Sunday: MVFR or lower conditions possible. Showers likely. W winds
gusts 20 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Waves will remain to come close to 5 ft on the ocean waters out to
20 NM. Some seas will come close to 6 ft on the on the far eastern
ocean waters from 20-60mm. Otherwise conditions will remain below
SCA levels into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the
waters will likely bring SCA conditions Sunday and Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Thu, April 16:
KEWR: 64/2002
KBDR: 53/2002
KNYC: 69/2002
KLGA: 68/2002
KJFK: 57/2002
KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17:
KEWR: 68/2002
KBDR: 57/2002
KNYC: 74/2002
KLGA: 73/2002
KJFK: 60/2002
KISP: 61/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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