What's Happening In Newington

846
FXUS61 KOKX 011013
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
513 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Light snow accumulations today, followed by wind chills in
the single digits late tonight.

2) Mixed precip event likely for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
No advisories are currently anticipated for snow or wind chills.

Combined moisture and mid level lift are expected to produce a light
snowfall across the area today. Snow will be entering parts of
Orange County by sunrise and advancing east. The snow should
then be exiting eastern Long Island/CT by late afternoon.
Thermal profiles support snow as wet bulb temps should be at or
below 32 for the duration of the event - only a brief mix with
rain is possible at the onset for some of the southernmost
zones. Minor impacts expected for the most part. Accumulations
mostly under an inch, but around an inch for some of the
northernmost zones.

Colder air filters in from the north tonight with minimum wind
chills short of advisory criteria - mostly in the single digits.
Highs on Monday only the upper 20s to lower 30s and get to within 3
degrees of record low maximum temp for the date at Islip.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A warm advection precip event is likely on Tuesday. A broad
area of weak low pressure stretching westward through the Ohio
Valley results in an approaching warm front. Its unclear if/when
the front actually pushes through the forecast area, but what
is more certain is that an elevated warm layer will shift into
the region. Plenty of cold air will be in place at the onset of
precip, with snow as the anticipated precip type. Due to the
warm nose aloft, cannot rule out eventual freezing rain for
inland areas. Freezing rain could be possible even for the city
and urban corridor of NE NJ, owing to an earlier arrival of the
precip. Thermal profiles slowly warm up through the day with
precip across most of the area falling as plain rain in the
afternoon.

As it stands, chances of eventual advisory issuances would more
likely be related to freezing rain versus accumulated snowfall. Even
if sufficient warm air precluding snow takes a longer time to
arrive, snow amounts would probably remain below advisory
thresholds. The higher threat of an advisory would appear to be over
parts of the interior that may take longer to rise above freezing at
the surface while the air aloft becomes too warm for snow
growth.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front moves across the area terminals early this morning.
A wave of low pressure passes over the area during the daytime,
followed by high pressure tonight.

Fog/mist has developed across portions of Long Island and S CT.
Expect IFR or lower conditions at the terminals in these
locations. Improvement is expected around 10-11z, when a NW
flow kicks behind the cold frontal passage. Unscheduled
amendments are possible.

Light snow will bring conditions back to MVFR and possible IFR
mid-morning through midday, followed by a return to VFR
conditions by the afternoon.

Winds are gone light and variable. They will become N 5-10 kt
just before daybreak with a passing cold front, then increase to 10-
15 kt later in the morning. There may be a short 2-3 hours of
gusts right behind the cold front. Gusts behind the front should
remain in the upper teens to near 20kt. In addition, some
gusts will be possible behind the wave of low pressure this
afternoon, with winds 10-15g17-22kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence in fog/mist areal extent and duration. This has been
handled with TEMPOs and unscheduled amendments are possible.

Moderate/high confidence with the timing of the snow for
Sunday, and a brief period of IFR visibilities.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a rain/snow mix in the morning,
becoming plain rain during the afternoon and into the evening
south to north. S wind G15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday - Thursday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of
rain. Thursday S wind G15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions are expected for the most part through
Tuesday. Conditions may get close for a time on the ocean
tonight with N flow gusting over 20 kt and seas up to 4 ft.
Light freezing spray expected on the ocean waters tonight into
Monday morning as well.

There are several weak waves of low pressure that will pass through
later this week with winds and seas on the ocean getting to around
SCA criteria Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then again at the end
of the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC