What's Happening In Newington

233
FXUS61 KOKX 100542
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
142 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot weather continues into Monday, but relief is in sight
later this week.

2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Monday afternoon
into evening. An isolated severe storm possible. Afterwards, we
remain dry the remainder of the week except for Wednesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front will bring another round of warm, humid air into
the area on Monday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat
indices will range 95 to 100 in areas of the heat advisory.
Elsewhere, heat indices are anticipated to remain below 95.

Following a cold front Monday, cooler air is expected to filter in
with highs in the mid to upper 80s Tue-Thu, then down into the low
80s by Friday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A warm front Monday will lead to a warm and unstable airmass
over the area. Then a cold front is anticipated to pass through
the area with shortwave energy aloft late afternoon into the
evening. Ahead of it, PWATs will peak 1.9 to 2.1 inches. With
the aid of lift from the front, a scattered to broken line of
showers and thunderstorms is anticipated to track across the
area west to east from 4 PM to 11 PM. The timing of the front is
still somewhat variable among the available among available
model guidance.

An isolated severe thunderstorm with brief downpours are
possible. 12Z model soundings and available 12Z CAMs have a
near- storm environment of 30 to 45 kt Bulk Shear, SBCAPE
2500-3500 J/kg (some CAMs up to 4500 J/kg), DCAPE 900-1100 J/kg,
and peak 0-3km lapse rated of 8.2 to 9 C/km.

For now, SPC has expanded a marginal (level 1/5) risk for
severe thunderstorms over the western two-thirds of the CWA.
This risk appears reasonable. The severe risk does appear to be
less if the front arrives too late in the evening, so it will
really all hinge on the timing of the front. The primary risk
with these severe storms will be straight-line damaging winds.

The remainder of the week is anticipated to stay dry with only
minor shots of any precipitation from passing shortwaves and
fronts. The only good chance for another round of rainfall after
Monday appears to be Wednesday evening into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front lifts north of the terminals today. A surface
trough then likely moves through late day into the evening.

Mainly VFR. PROB30s remain for a chance for MVFR in potential
showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into early
evening. A few showers are still possible thereafter until
around midnight or so.

N to NE or light and variable winds expected through the
morning push. Southerly flow develops thereafter, becoming more
SSW-SW in the afternoon and evening, increasing 9-12 kt. A light
westerly flow follows for the overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A light SE to S flow could prevail from approx 12-17z.
Amendments possible for PROB30 TSRA timing.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night-Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms
and MVFR. W gusts 15-20 kt possible on Thursday.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the middle of
next week.

Rip Currents: Lingering S-SE swells will lead to a moderate rip
current risk through Tuesday at ocean beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078-
     080-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC