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604
FXUS61 KOKX 121527
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1027 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Warning issued for the near shore ocean waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low pressure will impact the region as it tracks off the Mid
Atlantic coast today and lingers nearby offshore into Friday.
Intermittent rain is expected, and locally heavy downpours
this afternoon and evening could lead to brief nuisance
flooding. The rain may mix with or taper as wet snow on Friday
well north and west of NYC. No accumulation expected.

2) Minor coastal flooding is possible in spots during the
daytime high tide cycles today and Friday.

3) High pressure returns this weekend, ushering in drier
conditions through at least mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Deep troughing in place across the Eastern US amplifies further
today as an area of low pressure ahead of it strengthens and
shifts east from the Ohio Valley toward the Mid Atlantic coast.
The low passes just S of Long Island tonight before lingering
offshore through Friday as the parent upper low approaches. The
system finally exits further offshore Friday night into Saturday.

Rain chances increase along the coast this afternoon, and
localized downpours are possible into this evening as forcing
maximizes along the frontal zone just ahead of the surface low.
WPC`s URRD (Urban Rainfall Rate Dashboard) added additional
support for this potential, with several members offering
localized peak rainfall rates around the NYC metro near 1
inch/hour. This could lead to brief nuisance flooding should it
occur, particularly in urbanized and poor drainage areas, but
the overall threat for flash flooding is low. Also can`t
entirely rule out a few embedded thunderstorms with this
activity, though this is more likely to occur just to our south
where weak instability is highest. Lighter periods of rain then
continue overnight and through much of Friday before tapering
Friday night. Total QPF through then averages between a half
inch and inch and a half, with the potential for some localized
higher amounts that could approach 2 or 3 inches.

Winds increase tonight into Friday and peak gusts 25 to 30 mph
are expected across NYC/Long Island/coastal CT as E winds back
around to the NE and then N. Colder air works in tonight on the
backside of the low and there remains a chance of wet snow
mixing in across the higher elevations well N/W of NYC late
tonight into Friday morning, and then again Friday night into
Saturday morning across a wide portion of the interior. Surface
temperatures are expected to be largely at or above freezing
if/where this occurs and little to no accumulation is expected.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of a recent new moon (Nov. 9) and an area of low
pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast today will bring the
potential for minor coastal flooding during the daytime high
tide cycles today and Friday.

Coastal flood statements are in effect for today`s daytime high
tide for coastal Fairfield CT and S Nassau.

Continued to use a blend of NYHOPS50/ETSS/PETSS50 for surge as
this has been verifying well with the latest observations. This
puts the typical, more vulnerable locations of the south shore
back bays of western Long Island and the SW CT coast, right
around the minor coastal flood benchmark.

With NE flow remaining strong Thursday night and potentially
being even stronger on Friday, especially out east and at the
coast, the possibility of more areas reaching the minor flood
benchmark along the south shore bays of Long Island appear
possible with Friday morning`s high tide cycle. This was already
being monitored, but confidence in this occurring has now
increased. Additional statements or advisories may be warranted
for Friday morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Behind the exiting low this weekend, a sprawling area of high
pressure gradually builds in from the west and ushers in a
quieter pattern that likely persists through at least mid next
week.

Temperatures average slightly below normal both Sat/Sun, with
afternoon highs within a couple degrees of 50 and morning lows
in the 20s and 30s. Slow moderation looks likely early next
week with dry conditions continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure nearby to the SW consolidates off the northern Mid
Atlantic coast this evening, and remains nearly stationary
tonight. The low then slowly pulls away to the northeast tomorrow
into tomorrow night.

VFR at most metro and coastal terminals for a few more hours.
Showers will gradually overspread the NYC metro terminals towards
early afternoon, and later in the afternoon for eastern terminals.
Flight categories will lower to MVFR in the afternoon for most
terminals. Cannot completely rule out thunder this afternoon for
the NYC terminals and KISP, but too low of a probability to include
in TAFs. Additionally, conds could become IFR this afternoon for
KSWF, and possibly for KHPN also. Remaining MVFR tonight for most
terminals, but all terminals have at least a chance of lowering to
IFR at some point tonight or tomorrow morning.

Winds have picked up more than originally thought for the city and
coastal terminals thus far. Look for gusts around 20 kt at most city
and coastal terminals, with some terminals have a few occasional
gusts into this afternoon. The winds become NE-N this evening, with
gusts becoming more frequent later in the overnight into tomorrow
morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for the timing of lowering flight categories this
afternoon into this evening.

The wind shift from from E to NE could be off by 1-3 hours.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday-Friday night: MVFR/IFR in rain. Rain/snow mix possible at
KSWF in the morning and then again in the evening. Rain tapers off
Friday night. N-NW winds gusts 20-25 kt, strongest on Friday.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday-Monday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20 kt on Sunday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Have issued gale warnings for the near shore ocean waters for
tonight. SCA remains in effect for the non ocean waters.

Winds are stronger than fcst, and taking this trend into this
evening should lead to a prolonged period of gales let today
into tonight for the ocean waters. A few gale force gusts may
also be possible on the non ocean waters. There may be a lull
after midnight before winds once again increase to gale force on
the ocean as winds back NE-N on the back side of the low.

E winds 20-30 kt develop by late day, with gusts to 30-40 kt at
times, both highest on the ocean. Ocean seas 5-7 ft also build
today and persist through Fri evening before lowering.
Portions of the western Sound may also observe seas 4-6 ft
under a favorable easterly fetch.

Quieter conditions return to the non ocean waters Friday
evening, but seas around 5 ft may persist on some of the ocean
waters into Sat. A few northerly gusts to 25 kt are also
possible on the near shore ocean waters Sat afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ353-
     355.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BG/DR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/DR