NewingtonWeather.COM

565
FXUS61 KOKX 170735
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
335 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Freeze Warning issued for the interior tonight into Sunday AM.

Gale Watch cancelled on the outer ocean waters for Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend.

2) An area of low pressure  develops off the East Coast this
weekend and meanders offshore through much of the week. Coastal
impacts are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The coldest air mass since late April settles in to start the
weekend.

Behind the fropa that moved through early this morning,
sprawling surface high pressure builds east from the Plains and
ushers in a much cooler, drier regime. Before this though, a
shield of mostly light rain continues to linger in some areas to
start the day, mainly from NYC on east across Long Island and S
CT. Additional QPF is light, well under a quarter inch. Any
rain tapers by late morning and cloud cover gradually erodes
through late day as much drier air advects in with the N/NW
flow.

The tightened pressure gradient as the high builds will also
lead to blustery NW winds today. H850 temps plummet from the
the mid teens yesterday to around -3C later today as the cold
pool moves overhead. Temperatures this afternoon struggle to get
into the lower 50s along the coast, and upper 40s inland, with
the gusty winds, 20-30 mph, adding to the chill.

Actual air temps then fall into the 30s tonight across much of the
area, with lower 40s in the urban NYC metro. The coldest locales of
S CT and the LoHud Valley fall to near or just below the freezing
mark and the Freeze Watch was upgraded to Warning for these interior
zones. The one limiting factor will be north winds which likely stay
up enough to keep coastal locations from getting to freezing. Drier
air should help mitigate widespread frost formation. Should winds
drop off more than currently forecast, freezing temperatures and
frost may need to be expanded south.

Today will be the cooler day of the weekend, with a slow rebound in
temperatures then expected through early next week. Despite abundant
sunshine and clear skies on Sunday with the surface high overhead,
temperatures remain in the 50s in the afternoon, or about 10
degrees below climo for mid October. The air mass continues to
moderate Monday, with 60s returning for all by Tuesday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Into early next week, guidance is signaling the mid level
trough swinging east cuts off at the base, with surface low
pressure spinning up off Cape Hatteras. Cut off from any
meaningful steering flow, the low then appears likely to meander
offshore through much of the upcoming week.

Global dynamical and AI driven guidance continues to offer a
considerably wide range of solutions, with varying degrees of
impacts locally. For now, the consensus keeps the center of the
low far enough to the south and offshore to preclude much more
than persistent NE winds and perhaps some minor coastal impacts.
This is a low confidence forecast at this point however,
particularly moving into mid next week and beyond, and this
feature will need to continue to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds towards the terminals through
tonight.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Lingering light showers
early this morning, mainly from the NYC terminals on east will
end 09-11z.

NW winds and gusts increase early this morning, becoming 15-20
kt with gusts 25-30 kt through much of the day. Winds will
become more N this evening as gusts start weakening. N winds 10
kt or less are expected late tonight, and some outlying
terminals may become light and variable early Sunday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts could be a few kt higher at times this morning/early
this afternoon.

End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Monday Night-Tuesday: VFR. N-NE wind gusts 15-25 kt, strongest
near the coast.

Wednesday: VFR. NE wind gusts 20-30 kt, strongest near the
coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory is in effect on all coastal nearshore
waters until 6pm this evening. Gusty NW flow 25-30 kt expected
through this time, with ocean seas around 5 ft. Winds lighten
this evening and seas also lower for a brief period tonight
through Sunday. Gale Watch that as in effect for outer ocean
waters tonight into Sunday AM has been cancelled as winds now
look to remain lower in this period.

A prolonged period of unsettled conditions, particularly on the
ocean waters, is then expected through much of the week as an area
of low pressure meanders off the East Coast. Ocean seas above 10 ft
develop Monday and potentially continue through at least Friday. A
persistent NE flow is also in place, with gales possible on the
ocean beginning Monday evening. SCA conditions likely spread to
non ocean waters into midweek with the increased NE winds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR