What's Happening In Newington

914
FXUS61 KOKX 101938 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
238 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The winter weather advisory has been expanded, and now also includes
Northeast New Jersey, only a portion of New York City which includes
the Bronx and Northern Queens, and the northern half of Long
Island.

Probabilities have trended lower for the late Sunday into Monday
potential storm event.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Winter Weather advisories for much of the area with light
freezing rain and freezing drizzle expected for this evening into
the overnight.

2) Temperatures near to slightly above normal Saturday night through
Tuesday.

3) There is a chance for light rain and/or snow late Sunday through
Monday. Uncertainty remains high, and probabilities have trended
lower.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Have chosen to expand the winter weather advisory for a portion of
New York City, the northern half of LI and all of NE NJ for mainly
light freezing rain and freezing drizzle. The question still remains
as to whether it precipitates enough to cause impacts, even if they
are minor across the expanded advisory zones. For the NYC metro it
will be marginal as road temperatures sensors have come in warmer
than expected during the course of the afternoon. Due to urban
effects have held off on including Manhattan and locations across
the southern portion of the 5 boroughs from the advisory. Otherwise
the ground should be cold enough elsewhere so that even some very
light precipitation would cause a light glaze. The evening hours
should see the bulk of any light precipitation. It should start off
as snow further north, otherwise it starts as very light snow or a
light snow / sleet mix and quickly goes to light freezing rain and
light freezing drizzle as a warm nose aloft works in getting
temperatures a few degrees above freezing above the boundary layer
and up towards 4 to 5 kft. The sfc advection remains weak and with
low dew point readings thought it prudent to expand the advisory
some. The southern coastal zones should stay just warm enough at
ground level to be primarily plain drizzle and light rain. However,
this will be watched closely during the evening as southern zones
may get added to the advisory if obs / conditions warrant. This will
not be an accumulating type winter event as the system is weak and
lift will be weak. Also it is worth noting that locations along the
western edge of the winter weather advisory may actually struggle to
squeeze out measurable precipitation. However, criteria for a winter
weather advisory is only for a trace of freezing rain, thus the
advisory for even far western portions of the area.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
After a prolonged period of temperatures well below normal
temperatures will be slowly trending back to normal to slightly
above normal from Friday night into the beginning of next week.
Lows will range from the mid teens inland to the mid and upper 20s
along the coast Friday night and Saturday night, and mid 20s to
lower 30s Sunday night and Monday night. Highs will be in the upper
30s to lower 40s Saturday and Sunday and in the lower to mid 40s
Monday and Tuesday.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A lot of uncertainty remains with low pressure passing to the south
of the area Sunday into Monday night. The NBM probabilities have
trended down with this system. And global models are now showing
that upper ridging will remain across the central US and into the
Great Lakes and moving into the northeast US Friday and into the
weekend as an upper shortwave moves into the southwest US and then
rides under the ridge, across the southern tier. At the surface a re-
enforcing high builds out of central Canada and suppresses the
surface low well to the south as the low reaches the east coast by
late in the upcoming weekend. The area will be on the northern edge
of the storm with the chance of light snow and/or rain across the
region. If trends continue there is the possibility that the area
remains try through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A frontal system impacts the terminals this evening into early
Wednesday.

VFR through 00z. A few snow flurries are possible across the
interior and S CT this afternoon/early evening. There is then about
a 3 to 6 hour window tonight for wintry precipitation. Mainly light
freezing rain will occur for inland and S CT terminals along with
MVFR conditions. Some sleet could mix in at KHPN and KSWF. For NYC
metro and Long Island terminals, there may be a mix of light
freezing rain and light rain due to surface temperatures hovering
around 32 degrees. A light glaze of ice possible.

Any precipitation quickly ends from west to east 05-08z with VFR
returning through the rest of the TAF period.

S-SSE winds this afternoon and early evening. Winds will gradually
veer to the SW tonight. Winds speeds remain below 10 kt through 09z.
Winds increase thereafter and become WNW-NW with gusts 20-25 kt
possible after 14z, then 25-30 kt in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Precipitation type tonight from 02-06z could prevail as light
freezing rain, especially for KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB, especially if
surface temperatures do not rise above 32 degrees. Amounts are still
expected to be light.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 25-30 kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of rain/snow mix at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions through tonight on primarily a light
southerly flow. The winds begin to switch to a more westerly
direction towards the early portion of the morning. Small craft
conditions will then develop quickly by mid morning across all
waters. An occasional gust to gale force is possible for the ocean
waters Wednesday afternoon and evening. Small craft conditions
should continue through the day Thursday, and potentially into
Thursday night out on the ocean.

Winds and seas then fall below advisory levels across the forecast
waters beginning Friday, and lasting through Sunday night. There is
uncertainty with the track of low pressure passing to the south
Sunday night, if the low tracks a little farther to the north then
ocean wind gusts will be near SCA levels later in the weekend.
However, trends have been to keep the low track farther to the south.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for CTZ005>007-009>011.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ067>071-073-078-079-176-177.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE/MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/MET