What's Happening In Newington

399
FXUS61 KOKX 140722
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
322 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory on the ocean has been extended thru
the day from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal temperatures thru Friday.

2) Some showers and thunderstorms possible thru the period, but
the best chances look to be north of the area.

2) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to near
to slightly below normal Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The fcst remains on track for warm wx this week. The NBM was
generally followed, although temps along the coasts of NY and CT
were adjusted upwards today and Wed closer to the MAV and MET.
It looks like the numbers may be weighted a little to heavily on
the 2M model data in those spots. Similar adjustments may need
to be made for both Thu and Fri. A lack of strong wly flow
limits confidence in these areas torching out, but adjusting
towards the MOS seemed fairly safe given the warm airmass
building in.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Some shwrs and tstms possible thru the week with the area warm
sectored. The main convergence zone however looks to remain N
and W of the cwa. In this scenario, would expected initiation to
generally occur outside of the cwa, then bleed into the area on
storm flow or convectively induced boundaries, especially
across the interior, for the late aftn and eve hours before
completely falling apart. A shrtwv near the end of the week
could provide a better focus for both initiation and intensity,
but the timing will need to work out to allow for some
instability to work with. Although the 00Z GFS has this feature
passing thru during the day on Fri, the quicker AI-GFS produces
practically nothing with an early mrng passage. Stuck with the
NBM for pops and wx throughout the fcst.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region
during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference,
consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers
will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well.
After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold
front passage will return temperatures to near to slightly below
normal Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Offshore high pressure to the south will remain in place. Weak low
pressure will pass across upstate New York and New England late this
afternoon into this evening, bringing a front closer to the Hudson
Valley terminals.

Mostly VFR, though have to watch for TEMPO IFR vsby around sunrise
from about 10Z-13Z especially across CT/Long Island. A late
afternoon tstm possible at KSWF with brief MVFR vsby reduction.

Mostly light SW winds will become more southerly today and increase
to 10-15kt with gusts 20-25 kt from the NYC metros north/west and 15-
20kt elsewhere. Winds become more SW-W and diminish to 10 kt or less
tonight.

LLWS possible at KGON/KISP tonight, with WSW flow 35-40 kt at FL020.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some fog possible from 10Z-13Z. MVFR to IFR possible.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight: Mainly VFR. Some patchy fog possible late.

Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with chance of afternoon and
evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with
brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gust 15-20kt each
afternoon Wed-Thu as well.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The SCA for seas was extended thru the day on the ern 2/3 of the
ocean, although it could be canceled a bit early if seas subside
quick enough this aftn. Elsewhere, winds will be blw SCA lvls.
Winds thru the Thu are expected to remain blw SCA lvls on all
waters, but seas on the ocean will hover around 4ft, with 5ft
waves possible at times. Despite a cold frontal passage on Fri,
winds and waves are still expected to remain blw SCA lvls Fri
and Sat attm.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 88/1960
KBDR: 81/1960
KNYC: 87/1941
KLGA: 86/1941
KJFK: 80/2006
KISP: 78/2024

Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Tue, April 14:
KEWR: 62/2014
KBDR: 54/2023
KNYC: 70/2023
KLGA: 67/2023
KJFK: 55/2023
KISP: 54/2022

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 60/2023
KBDR: 53/2012
KNYC: 67/1941
KLGA: 64/1941
KJFK: 58/1960
KISP: 56/2023

Thu, April 16:
KEWR: 64/2002
KBDR: 53/2002
KNYC: 69/2002
KLGA: 68/2002
KJFK: 57/2002
KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17:
KEWR: 68/2002
KBDR: 57/2002
KNYC: 74/2002
KLGA: 73/2002
KJFK: 60/2002
KISP: 61/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$