What's Happening In Newington

834
FXUS61 KOKX 161158
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
658 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast snow totals have increased slightly mainly across the Lower
Hudson Valley into western CT for the light snow event tonight into
Saturday. Forecast totals in these areas are now widespread 1 to 2
inches.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Light snow accumulation expected late tonight into
Saturday. 1 to 2 inches for the Lower Hudson Valley and western
CT with less than 1 inch expected elsewhere. Rain starts to mix
in along the coast Saturday morning. A slight snow forecast
increase to Advisory levels (3 inches or higher) can not be
completely ruled out.

2.) The chance for snow remains early Sunday morning through Sunday
evening. The highest chances are across eastern CT and eastern
Long Island.

3.) Cold early next week. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday
may not get above freezing for many. Lows Monday night and Tuesday
night will likely be in the single digits and teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
With low pressure moving through the Great Lakes, our area will
get persistent light warm advection. This is expected to result
in light snowfall accumulation for much of the area tonight into
Saturday. Forecast soundings support all snow at the onset of
precipitation which is expected to be just after midnight
tonight. A changeover to a mix or all plain rain will then start
after sunrise for the coast. The interior may remain all snow.
Current forecast has 1 to 2 inches for the Lower Hudson Valley
and western CT with less than 1 inch expected elsewhere. There
is potential for forecast totals to increase and a Winter
Weather Advisory can not be completely ruled out yet for the
Lower Hudson Valley and western CT. Latest NBM and HREF 90th
percentile snowfall shows a swath of 3 to 5 inches in those
areas. There is also some indication that these higher totals
could stretch into portions of northeast NJ.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A shortwave embedded in the larger upper level trough over the
eastern US will lift towards the area on Sunday. This will aid
in surface low pressure development somewhere near the southeast
US. Uncertainty still remains in exact track of the low. The
EC-AIFS and AIGFS have remained very consistent with a closer
track to the coast, resulting in higher QPF. The deterministic
GFS and ECMWF have been flipping back and forth with the latest
00z guidance from both just scraping the eastern half of the
area. Confidence at this time is only high enough to stick close
to the NBM QPF and ratios which resulted in a couple of inches
of snow for eastern CT and eastern Long Island and less than an
inch elsewhere. It is worth noting that NBM probabilities for
an Advisory level snowfall are very low at this time, only about
10% for eastern areas.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The modeling has been consistently cold for next week - not record
breaking - but cold nonetheless. No changes to the NBM, although it
is noteworthy that lows Tue ngt and Wed ngt are actually colder in
the NBM than the MEX, which is unusual. The MEX might be keying in
on the winds as a limiting factor. If there is snow on the ground,
would expect the lower NBM numbers to be verify.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure briefly builds into the region today. A frontal
system approaches tonight.

VFR through much of the TAF period. Cigs lower after 00Z
Saturday with the potential for light snow toward and after 6Z.
MVFR is possible with any snow. IFR will be possible at KSWF,
where snow may lower VSBYs to 1-2 miles or less. Will continue
to carry PROB30s for precip chances.

The TAF period starts off with W-NW winds sustained 15-20kt
with gusts 25-30kt. These winds will remain gusty until they
subside and back to the SW between 18-21Z today. Winds will
subside to 10kt sustained. Can not rule out a few gusts
occasional higher than forecast.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts may be higher than forecast, especially through
15z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR or lower at times with rain and/or
snow.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in snow, mainly afternoon into night.

Monday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds peak early this morning out of the west. Marginal gale force
expected on the ocean waters with Small Craft Advisories on all
other waters. Winds start to lower by mid morning and headlines
gradually step down. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed on the
ocean waters once the Gale Warning comes down due to lingering
elevated seas. While wind gusts will remain below SCA criteria,
elevated seas may actually linger through the weekend.

Winds pick up again on Monday gales possible by Monday afternoon and
night. Continued windy conditions on Tuesday with SCA conditions
possible all waters.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ335-338.
     Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BC/MW
MARINE...JT