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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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169 FXUS61 KOKX 261947 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 347 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been extended in time on the ocean waters through the day Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mostly dry with near normal temperatures through mid-week. 2) A widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday night into Thursday, with a cooler pattern then in place through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Offshore low pressure will slowly drift east tonight through Monday, allowing high pressure to nose in from the north. Under clear and nearly calm conditions, lows should drop into upper 30s and lower 40s CWA wide. Some of the outlying areas will drop to the lower to middle 30s and some patchy frost is possible across the interior and Pine Barrens of Long Island, especially the Lower Hudson Valley, where radiative cooling is maximized. However, given the marginal possibility for frost, and low areal coverage, frost advisories were not issued. High pressure remains in control through the day Tuesday. A cold front approaches, but runs into ridging aloft, so not looking for too much in the way of rain Tuesday night, with just a slight chance of showers across NE NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Better chances for precipitation Wednesday afternoon as another frontal system and area of low pressure from the Mid- West approaches. With heights building aloft, warmer temperatures are expected, but they are expected to be near normal, generally in the 60s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Global dynamical and AI-based ensemble systems continue to advertise anomalously low H5 heights over the East late this week, with stubborn troughing thanks to strong blocking setting up between the Canadian Maritimes and Greenland. The strength and placement of these features will help drive the sensible weather locally through the weekend. Ahead of this, an advancing frontal system leads the incoming trough, with shortwave energy rounding the trough helping to instigate a surface wave of low pressure along the boundary. This will bring a widespread rainfall as the system passes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with potential for the rain to linger later into the day. QPF looks to average between a half inch and one inch through Thursday, with NBM V5 90th percentile around 1.5 inches. Hydrological concerns appear minimal, and should largely prove beneficial with NYC, NE NJ, and the LoHud Valley in moderate drought. Thereafter, still some uncertainty with additional chances for rain into the weekend, but for now, increasing confidence in cooler than normal conditions late this week into early next, with daytime highs mid to late week largely in the 50s and low 60s, and chances for wet weather at times, though a washout appears unlikely. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds in from the north through this evening, and then remains over the region through Monday. VFR. Wind generally ENE, and briefly SE, 8-14kt. Winds back to NE and N this evening and into the overnight, around 5kt, and even become variable at a few locations. Monday morning a NE flow develops, with winds possibly more east along the coast late morning into the afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... A late day sea breeze, around 22Z, is possible at KJFK Monday. Otherwise no unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday afternoon - Tuesday. VFR. Wednesday - Thursday: MVFR or lower with showers late day into Thursday, tapering off late Thursday. Slight chance of thunder. NW gusts 15-20kt Thursday. Friday: Mainly VFR, MVFR possible with a slight chance of showers. NW gusts 20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Seas will remain elevated on the ocean waters into Tuesday with a persistent NE flow and SCAs were extended through the day Monday. SCAs may need to be extended in time with subsequent forecasts. Seas on the ocean may linger aoa 5 ft through at least Thursday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/DR AVIATION...MET MARINE...JP/DR |
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