What's Happening In Newington

007
FXUS61 KOKX 240800
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
400 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased POPs for today and Tuesday relative to previous
forecast. Otherwise, no other significant changes made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to widely scattered shower activity for afternoon into
evening today and Tuesday. A slight chance of a thunderstorm
also for some locations afternoon into early evening.

2) Brief totally dry conditions midweek but chances for showers and
thunderstorms return with greater coverage potential Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The forecast for today into tonight exhibited change with respect to
probability for precipitation. This has trended higher compared to
the previous forecast. Also, again this forecast has been manually
increased above the POP forecast from the National Blend of Models.
The manual increase was done because of the consistent and coherent
reflectivity forecasts from many CAMs.

Synoptic pattern shows a slow moving closed upper level low that
will move across to the north of the region today into tonight. At
the surface, a weak cold front will move across. Multiple embedded
shortwaves are shown to move across the periphery of this closed
upper level low, bringing multiple periods of positive vorticity
advection. The heights actually stay nearly constant during this
time period as the center of the upper low has slightly increasing
heights today into tonight. The vertical forcing will not be too
much as a result and thereby will limit coverage of showers to
isolated to widely scattered at most. Layer precipitable waters on
the lower side for this event, just near 1.25 inch at most. Not
expecting any flooding issues but perhaps a brief gusty wind and
quick downpour.

Would expect slightly less precipitable waters for Tuesday with the
more westerly flow. Heights aloft slightly rise as closed upper
level low shifts farther northward and starts to become more of an
open wave trough. Once again, an embedded shortwave with its
positive vorticity advection moves across the area during the day.
At the surface, another weak cold front moves across Tuesday into
Tuesday night. With less moisture, POPs only slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms, or equivalently, isolated showers
and thunderstorms.

Regarding temperatures, the forecast values are not too remarkable.
They are expected to be within a few degrees of normal values for
both Monday and Tuesday. Most locations though with their respective
high temperature forecasts, do exhibit a small decrease from Monday
to Tuesday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The open wave trough heading into midweek is forecast to shift
farther northeast. Across the local area, ridging takes place with a
quasi-zonal flow. The ridge axis though already moves across the
area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. For late Wednesday night
into Thursday, the flow aloft is returning to more SW flow and the
next trough will start to move into interior portions of the
Northeast. The trough will continue to move east with its closed
upper level low for late week but does not push as much south as the
previous trough has done for the early week period. Heights aloft
across the local area do not change too significantly and any height
falls will be slight.

At the surface, weak large area of high pressure builds across the
area Wednesday but will be centered fairly quickly offshore. Then
there will be an approaching frontal system from the west for
Thursday. This may linger into Friday with a lingering associated
cold front. The aforementioned heights aloft and farther northward
track of the closed low will mean less steering flow for this front.
The forecast has the next showers and thunderstorms for the area
within this Thursday through Friday night timeframe with showers
being likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Chances for
thunderstorms are present and should be able to develop as the
airmass becomes a warm and humid airmass with the synoptic setup.
The driving factors appear to be more in the low levels compared
to the upper levels.

Highs forecast Thursday and Friday more in the low to mid 80s but
with dewpoints in upper 60s to near 70, max heat indices reach in
the upper 80s to near 90 for parts of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front drifts further offshore overnight. A trough of low
pressure lingers across the region Tuesday with high pressure
gradually building from the west.

VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period. There is a low
chance of a few isolated showers / thunderstorms this afternoon.
At this time confidence remains too low to include in the TAF.

Winds will be light overnight mainly out of the W/SW. W/SW winds
continue Monday afternoon and increase to or just above 10 kt
with gusts around 20 to 25 kt. An isolated gust up to 30 kt
can`t be ruled out. Some coastal terminals may not gust, or
gusts may not be as frequent.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An isolated gust up to 30 kt can`t be ruled out this afternoon.

Isolated showers are possible Monday afternoon, but confidence
remains too low to include in the TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. WSW around 10 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds.

Thursday-Friday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient remains relatively weak on average through
midweek across the local region. As a result, conditions on the
forecast waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory
thresholds.

There will be increasing potential for small craft conditions at
least on the ocean late week with high pressure offshore and an
approaching frontal system. This will set up a tightening pressure
gradient.

Rip Currents:

For the ocean beaches of NYC and Long Island, multiple onshore
components comprise the waves for both today and Tuesday. The wave
heights forecast are near 2 to 3 feet today and will be around 2 ft
on Tuesday. The forecast winds are more onshore today with more SW
flow and will be more westerly on Tuesday. Max daytime wind speeds
for both days will be within the 10-15 kt range.

With the more onshore winds and relatively greater wave heights
today, this will present a moderate risk of rip currents.

With the more westerly winds and less onshore component and slightly
lower wave heights Wednesday, this will still present a moderate
risk of rip currents but some ocean beaches could end up being more
on the low side for rip current risks.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM