What's Happening In Newington

424
FXUS61 KOKX 280644
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
144 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy fog and black ice possible tonight and Saturday
night.

2) Snow showers expected on Sunday.

3) Multiple waves of low pressure will impact the area Tuesday
through Friday of next week. Little to no impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Weak return flow, as well as residual moisture from the melting
snowpack, will produce some fog and possibly some black ice early
this morning. Will continue to monitor for the need of any
Special Weather Statements.

As for tonight/early Sunday morning, fog development would be more
likely to occur during the evening hours before a northerly flow
strengthens overnight. Because of this timing, freezing fog would
appear to only be possible well inland tonight due to anticipated
temperatures.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
No advisories are currently anticipated for snow or wind chills.

A cold front moves through the area tonight, but with little
moisture to accompany it. Deeper moisture follows on Sunday along
with PVA to bring snow/snow showers across the area. NBM PoPs have
trended upward from the previous runs and qpf fields from several
models imply the likelihood of precipitation occurring, so have gone
above NBM PoPs for Sunday. Precip should be exiting out of the
eastern zones by the end of the day. Thermal profiles support snow,
although boundary layer profiles are close to allowing some rain to
potentially mix in for southern zones. Will keep the forecast as all
snow. Above-freezing temps through the event and daytime timing will
mitigate snow accumulations. Anticipating 1-2 inches of snow across
CT and much of Lower Hudson Valley, with under an inch elsewhere.
Minor impacts for the most part, but brief moderate/heavier snowfall
may overcome any melting on the roadways for a short time. Special
Weather Statements should be able to handle impact messaging as
needed.

Colder air filters in from the north during Sunday night with
minimum wind chills in the single digits. Highs for Monday only in
the 20s for most spots.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Upper air pattern is forecast to change this period as a trough
becomes established across the western half of the country by the
end of the period, with broad upper level ridging across the east.
This will support a period of mild weather with a storm track
generally to the north and west of the forecast area. This supports
mainly rain through the week. But with cold air in place Tuesday
morning, precipitation ahead of a warm front may initially start off
as snow before going over to rain. Transition likely occurs before a
steadier precipitation develops. Expect little or no snowfall
accumulation at the coast with perhaps and inch or two across the
interior. Low pressure passes to the northeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday with conditions briefly drying out Wednesday. Another
frontal wave approaches from the Mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday
night into Thursday bringing chances of rain into the area.

Temperatures trending warmer than normal starting on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control through Saturday while
gradually moving offshore. A cold front approaches Saturday evening.

Periods of sub VFR for most terminals overnight and into the early
morning. VFR expected for much of the day Saturday, before a period
of sub VFR returning towards or just before 0z Sunday.

There remains uncertainty around the degree of vsby restrictions in
fog, and low ceilings with stratus for the overnight into early
Saturday morning. Uncertainty remains with the degree of low
ceilings and low vsby. A few terminals cloud get down to VLIFR,
otherwise mainly LIFR and IFR expected. There is a relatively higher
confidence for sub VFR conditions for the city and NJ terminals,
with somewhat less confidence for KSWF and KISP, KBDR, and KGON.

Light and variable winds late overnight into early Saturday morning.
A light S to SSW flow develops Saturday morning, with winds 5 to 10
kt at times Saturday afternoon and mainly out of the SW, with
possible gusts for KSWF. Winds generally at or below 5 kt Saturday
evening.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled amendments are possible overnight and through the day
Saturday into Saturday evening. Sub VFR conditions, with IFR and
MVFR conditions may extend into the day Saturday, but confidence of
this remains low.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late Saturday night: Pockets of Sub VFR at times early with light
winds, otherwise mainly VFR with winds becoming N.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with light snow showers or flurries.
N/NW winds G15-20 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming
plain rain during the afternoon and into the evening south to north.

Wednesday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain, mainly in the
morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions expected for the most part today through
Tuesday. The exception being Sunday night on the ocean when gusts
around 25kt will be possible as the pressure gradient tightens with
northerly gusts.

There will then be a chance of marginal SCA conditions on the ocean
waters next week as multiple waves of low pressure pass to the NW
with warm frontal passages. The first chance will be Tuesday night
into Wednesday in the warm sector as SW winds strengthen.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/MET
AVIATION...BC/JE
MARINE...JC