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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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347
FXUS61 KOKX 011512
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1012 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through early next week with only a
weak cold front or trough shifting through during Saturday night
into Sunday. A weakening low pressure system then passes nearby for
Monday night into Tuesday. A stronger system moving through
southeastern Canada then sends a cold front across the local area
Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure builds in behind the cold front that had passed
through earlier this morning. Mostly sunny conditions for the
rest of the day, but breezy with below normal temperatures. High
temperatures for the day have likely already occurred early this
morning before the cold front had moved through. Expect
temperatures mostly in the 20s for the rest of the day, with
winds creating wind chills in the single digits to mid teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:
* Brisk and cold conditions continue into Friday.
* Wind chills fall into the single digits and teens tonight and
Friday night. Wind chills remain in the teens to near 20 on
Friday.
Deepening low pressure lifts north across eastern Canada during
this time as weak high pressure builds in from the southwest.
West winds will gust up to about 20 mph with lows in the teens
Thursday night and highs Friday in the upper 20s to around 30. These
readings are about 10 degrees below normal. Expect temperatures
Friday night to be a few degrees warmer Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Below normal cold continues into Monday, with much of the interior
remaining below freezing.
* Some moderation is expected for Tuesday after a warm frontal
passage.
Low pressure passes south of the region this weekend. The low should
pass far enough south to keep conditions dry, however can not rule
out the possibility of some light precipitation reaching the
southern portions of the CWA. Will have some slight chance pops for
some light snow Saturday night. But for the most part, expect a dry
and cold weekend as high pressure remains over the area. As the
high slides E Tuesday, a SW return flow should develop and a warm
front approach from the SW, bringing some precip, mostly as light
snow, but with perhaps a rain/snow mix or light rain across eastern
Long Island and SE CT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The terminals remain behind a cold front today.
VFR expected through the TAF period.
NW winds around 15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. A few peak gusts up to
40 kt cannot be ruled out through early this afternoon. Gusts should
start to diminish 21-23z with sustained winds weakening into
tonight. Winds back more to the W tonight remaining around 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts this afternoon may be off by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt.
Saturday - Monday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gale warning in effect for the ocean waters today with a SCA
elsewhere. Deepening low pressure passes to the north, sending a
strong cold front across the waters this morning. SW winds will
gusts up to 25-30kt, early this morning. A NW gale then follows for
the ocean waters behind the cold front. Seas are expected to build
to 5 to 9 ft on the ocean and 3 to 5 ft across Long Island Sound.
SCA conditions are then expected thereafter for the ocean waters
into Friday evening, and for the eastern Sound/bays into tonight or
early Friday morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...BC/JC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...BC
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