What's Happening In Newington

069
FXUS61 KOKX 100707
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
207 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain for this afternoon and tonight with no flooding impacts
anticipated.

2) Cold front arrives Wed night into Thursday bringing a return to
seasonably cold conditions.

3) Forecast uncertainty remains high Wednesday night through Friday
around coastal low development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure center along an approaching warm front passes to
our south tonight. Rain develops generally south to north this
afternoon with most of the rain falling before midnight tonight.
Rain amounts ranging from a third of an inch for the NW zones
to around an inch across eastern Long Island. Given these
amounts over a 9-10 hour period, not anticipating any hydrologic
impacts. With that said, the heaviest rainfall (moderate in
intensity) most likely occurs from around sunset through around
10pm. Temperatures remain above freezing during the late night
hours, so no black ice concerns either.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front representing the leading edge of a polar air mass
will approach for mid week. With a pacific air mass remaining in
place preceding the arrival of the cold front, expect above
normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday with the slight
chance of some showers in the form of rain.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Towards Wednesday night into early Thursday the longwave
pattern amplifies as the ridge out west sharpens, and the trough
in the east amplifies in turn. This amplification is supported
by the consensus of global NWP and AI guidance. At this time it
is difficult to time the wave packets, and thus the timing,
position and strength of storm development. Much of the guidance
is suggesting the frontal boundary slowing and the development
of low pressure with the amplification of the pattern with the
upper level flow becoming more or less parallel to the front.
Suffice it to say there remains a chance of precipitation, with
precipitation type remaining uncertain during this time frame.
Therefore impacts are not known at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A series of frontal systems will impact the terminals overnight.

MVFR or lower improves to VFR thru 06-09z from west to east, then
VFR through the morning. CIGS/VIS drop to MVFR and lower this aftn
with rain developing towards 17-19z. IFR lingers Sat ngt, with some
DZ possible aft the rain ends in the eve.

NW winds become NE and diminish under 10 kt early this morning.
Winds back to the ENE this aftn and eve, becoming VRB aft 6Z Sun.

LLWS ending at GON by 7Z tonight.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ocnl gusts to around 20kt possible thru 9Z.

Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities.

Timing of lowering conditions and rain this afternoon may be off by
1-2 hours.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late Sat. night: IFR or lower.

Sunday: Chance of rain and MVFR/IFR in the morning. W winds G25-30
kt in the afternoon.

Monday: VFR. WNW wind G20-25 kt in the morning.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas could be right at 5 ft for some of the ocean waters east
of Moriches Inlet early this morning, otherwise sub-advisory
conditions for today. Seas build tonight with a swell as a wave
of low pressure approaches the waters, along some gusts to
around 25kt ahead the low this evening. SCA therefore in effect
for tonight and lasting through Sunday. After collaboration with
the surrounding offices, did not upgrade the Gale Watch for
Sunday night to a warning just yet, but guidance generally
supports a likelihood of gale force gusts across all waters
during the period. SCA conds then likely for Monday.

Marginal small craft conditions are likely to linger over portions
of the ocean waters on Tuesday before prevailing small craft
conditions return Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Small craft
conditions could develop for some of the non-ocean waters as well
during this timeframe.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/JE