What's Happening In Newington

569
FXUS61 KOKX 180127
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
927 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous rip currents expected Thursday into Thursday
evening with high rip current risk in effect. High risk of rip
currents possible Friday.

2) Minor coastal flooding in some spots along South Shore Bays
and Southern Fairfield late tonight around times of high tide.

3) Breezy conditions with the potential for severe
thunderstorms Thursday.

4) Rain, potentially heavy early next week with thunderstorms
possible Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Southerly flow to near 25-30 kt will create rough surf and dangerous
rip currents along the ocean beaches Thursday into Thursday
evening. Breaking waves near 4 to 7 ft are likely with
increasing southerly swell of near 7 to 8 ft with 7 to 8 second
period. High rip current risk remains in effect.

With southerly swell remaining of nearly the same period into
Friday, despite the more along shore winds, surf heights of near
4 to 6 ft is forecast which would allow for high risk of rip
currents. Did not have high confidence to extend high risk of
rip currents into Friday. Want to see how wind and wave forecast
holds for Thursday but there is that potential for the high risk
of rip currents on Friday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
With gradually lowering astronomical tide levels as we move
farther away in time from the new moon but a more south to
southeast flow, total water levels are going to be around the
same levels as those of the previous night. So the total water
levels around the time of high tide tonight will be similar to
the total water levels for last night`s high tide. Therefore,
once again, some locations along the South Shore Bays of
Southern Queens and Southern Nassau counties as well as
Southern Fairfield CT will briefly rise just to near minor
coastal flood benchmarks.

Surge models indicate a more substantial decline in total water
level for the next few nighttime high tides later this week, so
tonight should be the last night of minor coastal flooding in
some spots around high tide looking ahead into the weekend.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A strong low pressure system passing over the Great Lakes
Thursday morning will bring impacts to the area. A warm front
pushes north into the early morning hours which may be
accompanied by scattered light showers or spotty drizzle, mainly
for the northern tier. As we become warm sectored, a southerly
flow increases over the area quite substantially resulting in
sustained winds 15-20mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph. A few
gusts may approach 40 mph, especially in any areas that are able
to scatter out a morning overcast cloud deck.

By late morning, western areas may be able to break out into some
sunshine which will assist in raising temperatures, increasing wind
via BL mixing, and increase instability. The cold front then pushes
in from the west into the early afternoon. The dynamics of this
system are more robust that usual with 0-6 km shear on the order of
50-70kt. The biggest question will be on the development of
sufficient instability for the front to interact with and develop
thunderstorms. The thinking now is that by early afternoon, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms may develop west of the area and moves
fairly quickly east such that the primary threat for strong to
severe thunderstorms remains from 12-5pm. The primary threat for any
thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts.

As any thunderstorm shifts east, interactions with the marine BL
near the coast should allow for the weakening of any storms given
the lack of instability. If a storm remains persistent enough as it
travels east, it may be local strong enough to bring strong wind
gusts through the low level inversion, though this remains a
decreasing threat for areas further east.

The storm threat quickly ends by evening with winds falling off
toward sunset as well as the winds shift to a more WSW with the
frontal passage.


.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Low pressure is expected to approach from the south and west
towards early next week. Mid levels have shortwave energy
approaching around the same time from the north and west.
Onshore flow will make for relatively cooler temperatures
across the region Monday. Shower chances start late Sunday
night, become most likely Monday and taper off early Tuesday.
Rain could potentially be heavy at times with slight chance of
thunderstorms Monday. Potential for a few inches of rainfall
accumulations looking at long range ensemble forecast. PWATS
could approach near 1.75 inches for Monday across the coastal
areas.

Subsequent forecasts will likely have timing changes as there
is uncertainty with model placement of precipitation and low
pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front lifts to the north tonight into Thursday morning. A
cold front moves through Thursday afternoon.

VFR through 06z for all terminals. Then sub VFR possible, more so
for further east approaching and into the morning push. Western
terminals may remain mostly VFR with a period of MVFR possible late
in the overnight into early Thu AM.

Showers become possible Thu AM as the warm front moves through,
especially to the NW up towards KSWF, and this could lead to
MVFR/IFR conditions with low cigs, mainly after 9Z. Chance for TSRA
Increases early Thu PM ahead of the trailing cold front, and
maintaining PROB30 to highlight this potential thru 20-21Z Thu.

Winds settle to 10 kt or less tonight. S/SSW then increases through
Thursday morning, with gusts 25-30 kt developing after 12Z. Isolated
gusts to 35 kt Thu PM.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty with flight categories towards 06z and through Thursday
morning. Conditions could remain VFR, with higher chance of lower
flight categories for KJFK and KLGA.

Timing of TSRA Thu PM could be off by +/- 2 hours. If confidence
increases for TSRA in subsequent TAF updates then PROB30 may get
upgraded to TEMPO.

Isolated gusts 35 to 40 kt possible Thu PM.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: WSW winds become W with gusts 15 to 25 kt in the
evening, gusts end at most terminals overnight.

Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 20 kt.

Saturday: VFR. WNW-NW wind 10-15 gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday-Monday: MVFR or lower at times with rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions through tonight. Winds and seas both increase to
above SCA thresholds late tonight into Thursday morning. A southerly
flow will fairly quickly develop by 6AM with gusts increasing to a
peak around 30-35 kt through the day on all waters with seas
increasing to 6-8 feet on the ocean. While 35+ kt gusts will be
possible, they should be infrequent enough to prevent the issuance
of gales. Thunderstorms will also be possible early Thursday
afternoon which could bring 35kt gusts or higher.

Winds shift to more W by Thursday evening and fall below SCA
thresholds on all waters. Residual high waves on the ocean will
allow the SCA to continue there through at least the night and
possibly into the day on Friday, especially for eastern zones.
SCA conditions remain possible for portions of the waters Friday
night into the start of the weekend.

Low pressure may impact the waters on Monday, with SCA conditions
possible.

Rip Currents:

For Thursday, the rip current risk is high with strong S winds and
waves around 4-7 ft.

For Friday, the rip current risk is high with lingering higher swell
and gusty more W winds. Confidence is not high in the forecast though
as wind and wave forecast could be a little less with subsequent
forecasts, thereby making for more of a moderate rip current
risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/MW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/MW