What's Happening In Newington

427
FXUS61 KOKX 210128
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
828 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure tracking across eastern Canada will send a
cold front across the area Sunday morning. High pressure will
then gradually build in from the west through Monday. A frontal
system likely impacts the region late Monday night through Tuesday
evening. High pressure returns for Wednesday. A weak warm frontal
wave passes near or south of the area on Christmas Day with the
frontal system impacting the area into Friday. Another weak
system may impact the area for next Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Message

* Dry conditions prevail through tonight but temperatures will not
  drop as much as the previous night. Winds pick up with mostly
  cloudy conditions.


Low pressure tracking across southeast Canada will send a cold
front toward the area overnight.

The clouds increase and SW winds increase within the boundary
layer tonight. This will disrupt the typical diurnal trend of
temperatures, with more of a nearly steady to slight rise of
temperatures late tonight into early Sunday morning. Forecast
low temperatures only drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Dry conditions and near normal temperatures Sunday but breezy
  with most wind chills about 10 degrees colder than the actual
  temperature.

* Dry conditions and below normal temperatures Sunday night through
  Monday.

* Chance for snow late Monday night with fast moving low approaching
  from the west.


The area of low pressure Sunday moves from Southeast Canada into the
Canadian Maritimes. An associated cold front moves across early
Sunday. A mid level vorticity max moves across behind the front.
Strong cold air advection is expected Sunday into Sunday night.

Models have pretty good agreement with the trough moving in and
associated 850mb temperatures going from zero to near -2 degrees C
early Sunday morning to near -12 degrees C early Sunday evening. The
core of the cold airmass does not arrive until Sunday night. The
greater vertical mixing during the day and westerly flow will still
allow for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 40s for most
locations.

However, with the tight pressure gradient between high pressure to
the west and low pressure to the northeast, gusty westerly flow will
be present through the day. Wind gusts up to near 30 to 35 mph are
expected. The winds will make the apparent temperature feel up to
near 10 degrees cooler than the actual temperature.

While dry conditions are expected to continue, a brief snow flurry
or rain sprinkle is possible for parts of the region during the
day with the forcing aloft. This is being hinted at with some
of the CAMs with their forecasts of small discrete areas of weak
reflectivity traversing the local region. Too low confidence to
put in forecast as probabilities are less than 15 percent.

The one factor mitigating precipitation will be the lack of moisture
with the frontal passage and the low pressure system overall. Lots
of westerly flow from low to upper levels of the atmosphere.

The core of the cold air moves in Sunday evening with models still
exhibiting good agreement with 850mb temperatures, near -13 degrees
C. The 850mb temperature is forecast to rise a few degrees going
into early Monday morning. The mid level trough axis moves east of
the region.

A slight ridging trend occurs Monday into Monday night in the mid
levels. On a larger scale, the region is in a WNW flow with ridge
core in Southern US near the Gulf. The height gradient is tight with
fast steering low. This more progressive pattern will make for high
pressure to move offshore at the surface and the next low pressure
system to approach from the Great Lakes Monday night. Its associated
warm front approaches from the south and west for Monday night. This
will bring increasing chances for snow across the region.

Forecast temperatures are mainly within the 20s for lows Sunday
night, mainly within the mid to upper 30s for highs Monday and then
mid 20s to near 30 for lows Monday night. These temperatures overall
are below normal for Sunday night and Monday, and then near normal
for Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Light snow and rain possible along the coast with light snow,
  possibly a wintry mix, inland late Monday night through Tuesday.

* Chance of light rain for Christmas Day through Friday.

* Near normal temperatures, except slightly milder for Thursday night
  through Friday night.

A near zonal northern stream flow will predominate through the
extended forecast period, except for Wednesday with a ridge building
from the Gulf coast states into central Canada. With the near zonal
flow temperatures will be generally near seasonal normals, with no
cold surges expected. Late Monday nigh a warm front will approach
from the southwest, and push through most of the area during the day
Tuesday. Light precipitation is likely with the front, and will
begin as light snow across the region late Monday night, then as the
warm air moves northward, the precipitation will mix with and
eventually change to rain, initially along the coast, and then
further inland as the day progresses. The warm air may not reach the
far inland section, mainly the Lower Hudson Valley, and a rain/snow
mix may continue through Tuesday. Bufkit soundings are indicating
the possibility of a wintry mix inland as warmer air aloft surges
northward. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible.
And with the upper levels drying through the day the precipitation
becomes light. With the uncertainty in precipitation type, and
timing will continue with just a rain/snow mix.

High pressure builds into the region for late Tuesday night through
Wednesday. And with the high moving off the coast return flow sets
up, and temperatures will become milder, a few degrees above seasonal
normals, Thursday night into Friday night.
Another northern stream frontal system impacts the area Christmas
Day through Friday as another warm front approaches from the
southwest. With no cold air in place at the beginning of the event,
and warm advection increasing through Christmas Day, any mix
rain/snow at the start will quickly change to all rain across the
region. The warm front itself may not pass through the area until
Thursday night as the surface low moves into the Great Lakes region,
and into southern Canada. The cold front with this system then moves
through the area Friday night. However, the front is expected
to stall near the region, and yet another wave of low pressure
will be moving into the area for the upcoming weekend. There is
a lot of uncertainty with where and when the front will stall,
and will maintain the slight chances of precipitation through
next Saturday. Again, with no cold air in place, the
precipitation will likely be light rain.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong low pressure tracking across eastern Canada will send a
cold front across the area Sunday morning. High pressure will
then gradually build in from the west through Monday.

VFR.

S-SW winds less than 10 kt to start will gradually veer and
strengthen through the overnight as a cold front approaches
from the west. Coastal locations will likely see the more
notable bump up in winds to 10-15 kt and occasional gusts toward
20 kt, especially toward midnight. Winds will then veer to the
WSW toward 12Z Sunday and then WNW with the cold frontal
passage, speeds increasing to 15-20G25-30 kt, which persists
through the day.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may be off by an hour or two.

Occasional gusts to 20 kt possible overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: VFR. NW gusts 25-30 kt to start, gradually
subsiding overnight.

Monday: VFR.

Monday Night: Chance of light snow after midnight. MVFR or
lower likely.

Tuesday: IFR cond with snow at KHPN/KSWF in the morning,
possibly ending as rain in the afternoon. A rain/snow mix
elsewhere, with MVFR cond likely/IFR possible, becoming rain by
the afternoon. SW winds G20kt.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt, becoming NW.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible w/ rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories remain in effect across the ocean waters
through Sunday night. For non-ocean waters, small craft advisories
begin at 06Z Sunday and go through Sunday night. All small
craft advisories end at 11Z Monday. NBM 90th percentile was
blended into the NBM forecast late tonight and solely utilized
for gusts Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. The forecast
wind gusts remain within SCA range, below gales. Some BUFKIT
sounding data indicates possible gales for the ocean late
tonight as well as Sunday and Sunday night but not enough
confidence to put in the forecast. So, just have this potential
mentioned in the HWO.

A tight pressure gradient develops with the approach and passage of
a cold front heading into early Sunday and this tight pressure
gradient remains through Sunday evening. High pressure starts to
build more into the region and has a greater influence on the
area late Sunday night into Monday with the pressure gradient
weakening. Wind gusts gradually decrease below SCA thresholds
during the day Monday and remain below SCA thresholds Monday
night.

For the seas, pretty much only the ocean seas will be in SCA range.
The ocean seas remain elevated in SCA range into tonight and remain
that way through Sunday night. Ocean seas are forecast to drop below
SCA thresholds during the day Monday and remain below SCA criteria
Monday night. There is a small possibility for some borderline SCA
seas on the Long Island Sound east of the Mouth of the CT River late
tonight into early Sunday.

Small craft advisory conditions are likely to develop on the ocean
waters early Tuesday ahead of a cold front as south to southwest
winds increase and become gusty. As the front approaches later in
the day SCA gusts will become possible on the non ocean waters as
well. There may be a brief period of gusts below SCA on the ocean
waters early Tuesday evening, however, with the passage of a cold
front SCA gusts will become likely across all the waters during the
evening. There is even a chance that gusts briefly reach gale force
on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning. Through the day Wednesday conditions fall
below advisory levels as high pressure builds over the forecast
waters. A frontal system likely impacts the waters for Christmas
Day, however, winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory
levels across all the waters through most of the day, with ocean
seas possibly building to 5 feet late in the day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET