What's Happening In Newington

671
FXUS61 KOKX 291835
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
135 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for tonight into early
tomorrow morning. This has been expanded to include the entire
area. Probabilities for accumulating snow Sunday continue
decreasing with the highest chance across eastern Long Island
and southeast Connecticut.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frigid conditions continue through Saturday. A Cold Weather
Advisory is in place area-wide tonight. Another Cold Weather
Advisory is possible tomorrow.

2) A strong storm over the western Atlantic passes well offshore
Sunday. Probabilities for accumulating snow continue decreasing on
Sunday with the highest chance across eastern Long Island and
southeast Connecticut.

3) Strong, gusty winds and minor coastal flooding/minor shoreline
impacts remain possible on Sunday due to the offshore storm
system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Frigid conditions remain firmly in place the remainder of the day
today into Saturday under mainly zonal flow through this period.

Temperatures have remained warmer than forecast over the past two
nights, especially across NYC metro locations. Despite this,
Cold Weather Advisory criteria is still expected to be met
tonight with a Cold Weather Advisory in place area-wide tonight.
Lows will be in the single digits across the area. Some below
zero temps are possible in far interior locations. This brings
wind chills between - 5 and -10 across coastal section with
interior locations between -10 and -10.

Unseasonably cold weather remains in place through Friday night with
additional Cold Weather Advisory issuances possible. Little to no
relief during the daytime as afternoon highs Fri are in the middle
teens and in the low 20s Sat afternoon.

The guidance is beginning to come into much better agreement over
the last 24 hours regarding accumulating snow potential on Sunday.
The guidance overall is narrowing down the uncertainty with the
track and intensity of the western Atlantic low pressure with
confidence increasing that the low will pass close to 300 miles
southeast of the Long Island coast on Sunday.

The uncertainty revolves around how large the precipitation shield
will end up on the NW side of the storm. Trends are leaning to a
scenario where eastern portions of the area are grazed by light
precipitation. All signals are pointing towards the most organized
thermal forcing remaining well to the south and east with any precip
over the area associated with lift from a departing polar jet streak
over Northern New England and Southeast Canada. In fact, there is a
growing amount of deterministic and ensemble members that keep the
area completely dry on Sunday. Have not gone this route just yet,
but have trended PoPs down just a bit and have limited snowfall
accumulation much lower than both the means of NBMv4.3 and NBMv5.0.
The highest chance for accumulating snow resides across eastern Long
Island and southeast Connecticut.

The latest snowfall forecast is in collaboration with WPC and
neighboring offices which yields little to no snow across the
interior, a dusting to under an inch around the NYC metro to 1-2
inches across central/eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut.
The probability for an advisory level snowfall (at least 3 inches)
has decreased significantly over the last 24 hours, but still cannot
be completely ruled out towards the twin forks of Long Island if
there is a slight amplification with the modeled jet streak,
allowing slightly more snow to reach the east end.

The evolution of this system differs from previous storms that have
trended NW closer in time this season. The upper low associated with
the intense offshore storm is expected to pass off the
Southeast/Middle Atlantic coast with the deepening process occurring
off NC/VA coast. This will prevent warm advection processes from
working there way up the coast into the northeast. In previous
events, warm advection was a big factor for the NW trend. The main
aspect of this event will be with the jet amplification to our north
and east. If there are more amplified jet trends, then the snow
shield could move a bit further NW than currently expected. If it
trends flatter, then there would be a higher likelihood of little to
no snow occurring across the entire area. It should also be noted
that even if there is a trend to a more amplified jet, the snow
would still end up light with amounts more than likely remaining
below Advisory level from the NYC metro on NW. It would only
increase the chance of advisory level snowfall out east.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The western Atlantic storm system is progged to deepen rapidly this
weekend. Models are converging on the low passing well offshore, but
there will still be a strong pressure gradient over the region.
There is potential for sustained N winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40
mph. Gusts could approach 45 mph, especially across Long Island and
coastal Connecticut, so do not want to completely rule out the
potential for an Advisory (at least 45 mph gusts). Winds will likely
be lower heading further inland, especially NW of the NYC metro.
Wind speeds and gusts will continue to be refined over the next few
days.

Minor coastal flooding and minor shoreline impacts are possible
Sunday/Sunday night. A full moon occurs on Sunday coinciding with
when the storm system is at its strongest over the western Atlantic.
The strong offshore flow will limit the surge from the offshore
storm. There is a chance for minor coastal flooding during times of
high tide on Sunday/Sunday night, especially for the south shore
back bays and potentially western Great South Bay. Other coastal
locations may just see water levels touch minor benchmarks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in through the TAF period.

VFR.

NW winds. Speeds 10-15 kt. Gusts will be more occasional for most
terminals at around 20 kt this afternoon, with peak gusts around 25
kt. Gusts diminish after 00Z and return Friday after 14Z. Wind
direction will be from 290 to 310 through the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts today may be off by an hour or two and may be more
occasional at times.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25kt.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. There is a chance for some MVFR or
lower conditions along with a chance of snow, mainly late night
Saturday into Sunday. Best chance will be across the terminals east
of NYC. Northerly wind gusts increasing at night to 20-25 kt, then
30-35 kt on Sunday. There is low confidence at this time on the
magnitude of winds and snow.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR with NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal small craft conditions take place tonight into tomorrow on
ocean waters with near 25 kt gusts and 4-5 ft waves with a SCA in
place for this. A Freezing Spray Advisory is also in place for much
of this same period on ocean waters for moderate accumulation of
freezing spray.

Sub Advisory conditions are then expected Friday night into
Saturday. Conditions rapidly deteriorate with increase waves and
winds Saturday night due to a passing low offshore.

A gale watch has been issued Saturday night beginning at midnight
and runs through 6pm Sunday. There is also a low chance for storm
force wind gusts on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet. However,
trends have been gradually lowering wind gusts over the last several
cycles so elected to hold off on the issuance of a storm watch. It
is possible that a storm watch may be needed in subsequent
forecasts. Otherwise, lingering gales are possible on the ocean
Sunday night, but the overall trend is for conditions to return to
SCA levels Monday and Tuesday, mainly on the ocean.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Friday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday
     for ANZ350-353-355.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR/DS
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BR/DS