What's Happening In Newington

376
FXUS61 KOKX 280130
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
930 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry through Wednesday.

2) Widespread rain expected Wednesday night and Thursday.

3) Low potential at this time for an offshore low pressure
system to bring unsettled weather to the area this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will remain in place through Tuesday night and will
gradually weaken on Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the
west.

Expect mostly dry conditions tonight. A cold front approaches
late Tuesday, but runs into ridging aloft, so not looking for
too much in the way of rain Tuesday afternoon/evening. Most of
the global models keep conditions dry, however a few of the
CAM`s are indicating the chance for some isolated to scattered
showers mainly west of NYC for late Tuesday afternoon. NBM is
dry, but have decided to increase POPs just enough to include
isolated showers. Otherwise, expect highs on Tuesday to be in
the 60s.

A few rain showers will be possible Wednesday afternoon as a
cold front approaches. The combination of cloud cover and
chance for rain will keep temperatures slightly cooler on
Wednesday. Expect highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, except
slightly cooler along the coast.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The low pressure system currently in the Midwest will work north
of the Great Lakes on Tuesday and continue moving into eastern
Canada, dragging a cold front toward the Northeast. With the
help of a shortwave rounding the base of a broader upper level
trough, a frontal wave will likely develop just west of the
area. This system will move through and bring widespread
moderate rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday.

There is relatively large spread among the guidance with QPF due
to exactly where the wave forms and how quick it moves/deepens.
Latest NBM 24 hr QPF 10th percentile shows about 0.25 inches
with the 90th percentile showing 1.50 to 1.75 inches. Stuck with
the deterministic NBM which has a storm total of right around
0.75 inches.

While thunder can`t be ruled out, not expecting significant
convection with heavy downpours. Rain will be mostly light to
moderate, with no hydrologic concerns at this time.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The next chance for unsettled weather could come this weekend
with a passing offshore low. The GFS is the most aggressive
showing phasing of the northern and southern stream with a
surface low deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This would
bring wet and windy conditions to the area. Both the ECMWF and
Canadian are either offshore or weaker with this system, so
there is plenty of uncertainty. Stuck with NBM slight
chance/chance PoP for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control through Tuesday morning, then
gradually weakening and moving offshore Tuesday afternoon.

Mostly light SE-S flow this evening will become light/variable
this evening and then light NE late tonight into early Tue
morning. SE flow 10 kt or less should develop by afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night: Rain with MVFR/IFR cond. Slight chance of
thunder at the NYC metros after midnight.

Thursday: Rain with MVFR/IFR cond, tapering off and becoming
VFR late in the afternoon. NW winds G15-20 kt late Thursday
afternoon.

Friday: VFR. WNW winds G20-25kt.

Saturday: Chance of mainly afternoon showers with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in place for the ocean waters out
to 20 nm through Tuesday due to lingering 5-ft swell from an
offshore low. Have extended the central and eastern ocean
zones into Tuesday night, where confidence is a bit higher for
5ft seas to linger. Its possible that the SCA may eventually
need to be extended into Tuesday night for the western ocean
waters.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on Wednesday.

SCA conditions expected on the ocean waters out to 20 nm
Thu-Fri with the passage of a cold front, with gusts up to 25 kt
and seas 5-6 ft. There is lesser potential for some of the non-
ocean waters to see 25 kt gusts as well.

Uncertainty increases thereafter. There is potential for an
offshore low to pass close enough to bring impacts.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC/JT
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BC/JT