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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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526 FXUS61 KOKX 011617 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1117 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated weather as snow is quickly exiting to the east by early afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light snow ending early this afternoon, followed by wind chills in the single digits late tonight. 2) Mixed precip event likely for Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... No advisories are currently anticipated for snow or wind chills. Combined moisture and mid level lift are expected to produce mainly light snowfall across the area today. A mix of snow/rain and sleet were occurring across western sections early this morning and updated for this. The associated shortwave will be advancing east and exiting eastern Long Island/CT by late afternoon. Surface temperatures were above freezing in the NYC metro area, and with a warm layer aloft some sleet was also occurring. Thermal profiles also support snow as wet bulb temps should be at or below 32 for the duration of the event. Minor impacts expected for the most part. Accumulations mostly under an inch, but around an inch for some of the northernmost zones. Colder air filters in from the north tonight with minimum wind chills short of advisory criteria - mostly in the single digits. Highs on Monday only the upper 20s to lower 30s and get to within 3 degrees of record low maximum temp for the date at Islip. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A warm advection precip event is likely on Tuesday. A broad area of weak low pressure stretching westward through the Ohio Valley results in an approaching warm front. Its unclear if/when the front actually pushes through the forecast area, but what is more certain is that an elevated warm layer will shift into the region. Plenty of cold air will be in place at the onset of precip, with snow as the anticipated precip type. Due to the warm nose aloft, cannot rule out eventual freezing rain for inland areas. Freezing rain could be possible even for the city and urban corridor of NE NJ, owing to an earlier arrival of the precip. Thermal profiles slowly warm up through the day with precip across most of the area falling as plain rain in the afternoon. As it stands, chances of eventual advisory issuances would more likely be related to freezing rain versus accumulated snowfall. Even if sufficient warm air precluding snow takes a longer time to arrive, snow amounts would probably remain below advisory thresholds. The higher threat of an advisory would appear to be over parts of the interior that may take longer to rise above freezing at the surface while the air aloft becomes too warm for snow growth. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Light snow or a snow/sleet mix passing E of the NYC metros. Brief IFR vsby occurring at KHPN just as snow about to end there, also at KISP where snow was just beginning. KGON should also see occasional IFR vsby from about 15Z-17Z. Winds will be mostly from the NNW-N 10-15 kt, with some gusts up to 20 kt. Winds may stay up into this evening, then diminish to 10 kt or less overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be occasional rather than frequent. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday: VFR. Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming plain rain from south to north during the afternoon and evening. S winds G15-20kt. Wednesday and Thursday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain. S wind G15-20 kt possible on Thu. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-advisory conditions are expected for the most part through Tuesday. Conditions may get close for a time on the ocean tonight with N flow gusting over 20 kt and seas up to 4 ft. Light freezing spray expected on the ocean waters tonight into Monday morning as well. There are several weak waves of low pressure that will pass through later this week with winds and seas on the ocean getting to around SCA criteria Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then again at the end of the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC/MET AVIATION...BC/Goodman MARINE...JC |
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NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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