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339
FXUS61 KOKX 091000
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
600 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Rip Statement has been issued for this evening into tomorrow
for the high risk of rip currents.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low-end chance for showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning
and again Thursday evening/night. Gusty winds expected Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

2) Mild temperatures under dry conditions Friday and Saturday.

3) Another low-end chance for showers late this weekend.

4) High rip current risk (and 4 to 7 ft surf) expected this evening
through Thursday at ocean beaches. Minor beach flooding possible
during the times of high tide this evening thru Thursday
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure exits offshore as an amplified Canadian upper-level
trough sends a cold front our way. A pre-frotal trough will bring
our next best chance for rain, which isn`t all that great, if we`re
being honest. Strong LLJ forcing with the sfc trough along with peak
2" PWATs and 0-6km bulk shear of around 40 kts should lead to a line
of showers approaching the area Wednesday night, passing through in
the early morning hours of Thursday. However, there is virtually no
instability, so thunderstorms seem unlikely. Most 00Z CAMs have
showers breaking up dissipating into Thursday morning as it
traverses the area, so the best chances for any precip Thu
morning will be areas N & W of NYC. Even then, the window will
be brief. There are still a few 00Z CAMs that keep the line
together through most of the CWA, such as the HRRR, so it is
worth monitoring.

Along and ahead of the pre-frontal trough will be a strong ~45kt
LLJ. This will lead to strong, gusty southerly winds at the surface
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The strongest of which will
be at the coast with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Winds will then
diminish into the day on Thursday and into Thursday night as
winds turn NW with a cold front.

A stalled surface boundary to our south could lead to additional
chance for showers along southern sections of the area Thursday
evening/night, but chances will end when the cold front officially
pushes through from the NW Thursday evening/night.

Highs look to be in the 80s both Wednesday and Thursday, before the
front advances through.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure builds in for the remainder of the week and into the
first half of the weekend. This will lead to dry weather.

Given lower heights aloft and very dry air, highs Friday and
Saturday will struggle to get to 80, with most reaching the 70s.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Long term model guidance hints at a possible shortwave embedded in
flattening zonal flow aloft could bring a few showers or storms
Saturday night into Sunday. Confidence is low, at this time.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Southerly winds increasing to around 20 kt this afternoon into
tonight will have surf building to 3 to 5 ft late today into this
evening. This will increase the rip current risk at the ocean
beaches to moderate through the afternoon, and likely high this
evening.

The rip current risk continues at high on Thursday. While winds take
on a more westerly component, a residual S/SW wind swell of 5 to 8
ft will produce 4 to 7 ft breakers in the surf zone, highest for
eastern LI beaches.

The elevated surf, combined with high astronomical tides ahead of
Sep 10th new moon, may result in minor ocean beach flooding during
the times of high tide.

Along the mainland, water levels will approach minor flood
thresholds during the times of high tide this evening along southern
bays of Queens and Nassau and coastal SW CT and Westchester. The
moderate S/SW flow and choppy waves may result in some localized
minor flood impacts for vulnerable shoreline areas.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure slides offshore this morning with a warm front
lifting well north today. A weak trough approaches late
tonight, with a cold front passing though Thursday afternoon.

VFR. Low prob for isolated showers this afternoon. Better
chance for isolated to scattered showers late tonight, with
brief MVFR possible.

Light south/vrb winds this morning increase to south 10-15 kt
with gusts 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Sustained S winds 20kt
likely for JFK late afternoon into evening, possible for KISP.
S/SW winds 15kt with occasional gusts to 20-25 kt likely
continues for south coastal terminals overnight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of southerly wind speed increase may be off by an hour or
so.

Sustained 20-25G30kt possible at JFK for eve push.

Magnitude and duration of gusts this evening/tonight.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR, outside of isolated early AM shower. Chance of
showers Thu eve/night, mainly for NYC/NJ metro and LI
terminals. W/SW gusts 20-25 kt, shifting NW Thu eve.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night into Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with
showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
S winds will then increase ahead of an approaching cold front. A SCA
has been issued for all waters tonight as winds hit criteria. There
is a low chance that a few gusts hit gale force, particularly on the
ocean and back bays.

Winds decrease on Thu invof the front, but seas will linger aoa 5 ft
on the ocean most of the day. The SCA continues there thru the
day.

Conditions likely below SCA levels all waters Fri-Mon.

Rip Currents:

See Key Message 4.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from this evening through Thursday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BR/NV