What's Happening In Newington

049
FXUS61 KOKX 010850
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
450 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The High Risk for Rip Currents has been extended through Thursday.

A Small Craft Advisory was issued for the ocean waters out 20 NM,
the South Shore Bays, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the eastern LI
Sound for today through tonight.

No changes to heat headlines.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Record to near record dangerous heat is expected through
Friday and will likely continue on Independence Day, with
little overnight relief. This level of heat can be deadly for
those without adequate cooling and hydration. Impacts to
transportation infrastructure and electrical and water systems
are also possible.

2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
nearly each day through the weekend. Any thunderstorm has the
potential to be strong to severe.


3) There is a high risk of rip currents through Thursday. (See
marine section for discussion).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An anomalously strong ridge continues to build in today, centered
over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The ridge eventually breaks
down late this week into the weekend in response to a closed low
developing over eastern Canada. At the surface, high pressure
remains anchored just offshore, with a surface trough lingering over
the area. This pattern will bring record to near record dangerous
heat is expected through Friday and will likely continue on Independence
Day.

Actual air temperatures through this period in the upper 90s to
near 105 combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s
will lead to Heat Index values over 105 and between 110 and 115
for most locations. To put this heat in perspective, Central
Park has not reached 100 degrees since 2012 and is forecast to
reach 102 on Thursday and Friday. The Islip NY climate site has
only recorded 100 degrees eight times since records began in
1963 and is forecast to reach 101 on Friday. Additionally,
current forecast at all climate sites would be the hottest
Independence Day since 2010. In addition to the high daytime
temperatures, overnight lows will offer little in the way of
relief, with temperatures likely remaining in the 80s in urban
areas tonight through Saturday morning and in the mid to upper
70s elsewhere. The forecast low of 85 at Central Park on
Thursday night would be the all time highest low temperatures on
record.

This level of heat can be deadly for those without adequate
cooling and hydration. Impacts to transportation (rail, bridge,
road/tarmac) infrastructure and electrical (high demand
electrical) and water systems (open hydrants reducing water
pressure) have been noted with previous heat events of this
severity and duration. On average, heat kills more people than
any other weather-related hazard.

Model guidance and the forecast has not changed much from the
previous shift. Consensus is 500 mb heights peak between 592 and
594dam, which would be near the daily record for the OKX RAOB.
850mb temps are modeled to reach 23 to 24C, which would make it
top 5 warmest recorded all time by the OKX RAOB. Minor tweaks
were made to NBM Tds and Ts, especially along coastal areas, but
does not change the expected dangerous levels of heat.

More significant relief comes into the start of the new work
week as temperatures trend down into the 80s and a series of
disturbances aloft result in a period of unsettled weather.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
With the local region on the northern periphery of the upper
ridge, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible nearly
every afternoon/evening through at least Saturday, although
there is inherent uncertainty in the day to day timing,
placement, and strength of any convective activity.

Convective activity currently to the north is expected to
continue to weaken given this activity heading into a less
favorable environment, but a damaging wind gust can not be
completely ruled out.

For later today, the SPC has the area outlined in a marginal
risk, with a slight risk reaching into the Lower Hudson Valley
from the north. CAMs continue to struggle, likely due to lack of
significant forcing, but given impressive MLCAPE up to 3000
J/kg, anything that does develop could produce damaging winds
and heavy downpours.

Confidence in coverage and location of any convective or severe
activity increases for Thursday through the weekend. However,
CSU MLP and CIPS guidance highlights the area each day in a
potential severe risk.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains over the Western Atlantic through midweek.

Mainly VFR conditions expected. Clusters of showers and
thunderstorms around early this morning may briefly lead to
restrictions, TEMPOs added to highlight this potential. This
activity is expected to weaken as it moves offshore through 10
or 11Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop once again later this afternoon into early evening, and
a PROB30 may eventually be needed should confidence in
occurrence increase.

SW flow around 10 kt or less to start the day, increasing to
10-15 kt by late morning with gusts 20-25 kt possible in the
afternoon. Sea breeze likely backs coastal terminals more SSW-S
after 18Z. Gusts diminish in the evening with a light SW flow
continuing into Thu AM.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated shower/thunderstorm possible this afternoon into early
evening. PROB30 may be added.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.Tonight: VFR, Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the
evening.

.Thursday: Mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the
afternoon and evening.

.Friday: Mainly VFR. Isolated shower or thunderstorms with MVFR
in the afternoon and evening. W wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon
into evening.

.Saturday-Sunday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening with MVFR or lower possible at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today through tonight for the
the ocean waters out 20 NM, the South Shore Bays, Peconic and
Gardiners Bays and the eastern LI Sound. A strengthening S/SW flow
will bring 25 to 30 kt gusts and 5 to 6 ft seas for the ocean
waters. Elsewhere, 20 to 25 kt gusts are expected. Gusts lower
overnight but may increase again on Thursday, mainly over the ocean.

Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions are expected with a weakening
pressure gradient.

Rip Currents...

The High Risk for Rip Currents has been extended through Thursday.

Today, a S/SW flow increasing to around 20 kt combined with the
resulting 5ft 5s period wave component will lead to the high risk. A
similar set up is expected for Thursday with a 15 to 20 kt flow and
4-5 ft 6s swell.

RCMOS showing solid high risk for both days along with local rip
current algorithms showing solid high risk for both days gave
confidence to extend the high risk through Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 102/1901
KBDR: 95/1963
KNYC: 100/1901
KLGA: 97/2018
KJFK: 102/1963
KISP: 96/1964

July 2:
KEWR: 103/1901
KBDR: 100/1966
KNYC: 100/1966
KLGA: 101/1966
KJFK: 101/1966
KISP: 99/1966

July 3:
KEWR: 105/1966
KBDR: 99/1966
KNYC: 103/1966
KLGA: 107/1966
KJFK: 104/1966
KISP: 104/1966

July 4:
KEWR: 105/1949
KBDR: 98/1949
KNYC: 102/1949
KLGA: 100/1949
KJFK: 101/2010
KISP: 97/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 77/2018
KBDR: 73/2013
KNYC: 79/2018
KLGA: 79/2018
KJFK: 75/1968
KISP: 73/2025

July 2:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 82/1901
KLGA: 78/2002
KJFK: 74/2018
KISP: 74/2014

July 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018

July 4:
KEWR: 81/2002
KBDR: 80/2002
KNYC: 81/2002
KLGA: 82/1999
KJFK: 80/2002
KISP: 76/2002

July 5:
KEWR: 81/1999
KBDR: 74/2018
KNYC: 82/1999
KLGA: 86/1999
KJFK: 80/1999
KISP: 78/1999

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ005>007-009>011.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM EDT Friday for
     CTZ005>012.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM EDT Friday for
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JT