What's Happening In Newington

051
FXUS61 KOKX 082321
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisory issued for tonight for portions of western Long
Island and NE NJ.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Areas of frost are expected tonight into Thursday morning.

2. Fire weather concerns increase somewhat over the next week,
mainly due to low daytime RH and lack of wetting rainfall.

3. Temperatures closer to normal this weekend will experience
significant warmup Mon-Wed next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface high pressure centered nearby shifts off the New
England coast into this evening, with light return flow setting
up.

Slight moderation of the seasonably cool air mass in place will
prevent a widespread freeze like last night, but areas away
from the coast fall back into at least the upper 20s, with mid
to upper 30s expected in NYC. Clear skies and increasing shallow
moisture in the low levels with the weak onshore flow should
allow areas of frost development in most areas; more patchy in
the urban NYC metro. Hoisted a Frost Advisory for western Long
Island and parts of NE NJ where the growing season has already
begun.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure remains in control locally the next few days as
the center drifts further off to the north and east. Dry
conditions persist Thursday, and RH values likely fall under 30
percent in the afternoon away from the immediate coast with weak
S flow. While speeds are expected to remain light, the low
humidity values could support fire spread should ignition occur.
In collaboration with neighbors and partners, opted for no
headlines at this point as winds are not expected to approach
RFW criteria.

Thereafter, increasing moisture ahead of a fropa should
mitigate much concern on Friday, with a chance for a light
rainfall in the evening, especially north, as the boundary moves
through.

After cold fropa on Sat, daytime RH lowers to 25-35% with NW
winds gusting to 15-20 mph, mainly inland. Min RH on Sunday
should be 30- 40% but with lighter S winds.

On Mon, RH looks more marginal at 40-50% with SW winds gusting
to 20 mph. Then for Tue/Wed, min RH should be 30-40% with SW
winds gusting to 15-20 mph, but the RH forecast on those days is
more uncertain and will be dependent on high temperatures.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Good model agreement continues on broad troughing over central
Canada and then nrn Plains moving ewd across ern Canada and the
Northeast Fri into Sat, which should send a cold front through
Sat morning. Prior to fropa, temps should already have begun a
warming trend, with highs 65-70 from NYC north/west (5-10
degrees above normal), and mid 50s to lower 60s for Long Island
and most of S CT (near normal). Air mass behind the front will
be only slightly cooler than that for the weekend as strong
Canadian high pressure builds across, with highs mostly from the
mid 50s to mid 60s, still a few degrees above normal from NYC
north/west.

A more appreciable warming trend should take place early next
week as a return flow develops on the back side of the high as
it departs out into the Atlantic, and as a warm front passes to
the N. Highs on Mon should reach the mid/upper 70s from NYC
north/west and the 60s east of there. Even warmer temps expected
on Tue, upper 70s/lower 80s from NYC north/west and 60 to lower
70s east. These numbers are 15-20 degrees above normal
north/west and about 5-10 degrees above normal east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore of the northeast coast through
Thursday evening.

VFR.

Light S to SE winds early this evening become light and variable
throughout by 04Z. A light SE flow develops Thursday morning,
becoming southerly and increasing to around 10 kt during the
early to mid afternoon.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There is a chance of stratus 09Z to 13Z, likely remaining
scattered. Best chance will be at KJFK, with a low chance of
brief MVFR.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: VFR. There is a chance of MVFR to IFR stratus
and fog at the coastal terminals after 06Z.

Friday: Chance of MVFR to IFR early in the morning at the
coastal terminals, otherwise VFR.

Friday Night: Potential for MVFR or lower in rain showers.
Highest chances north and west of NYC terminals.

Saturday: VFR. NW gust 20 to 25 kt possible.

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions remain below SCA criteria with nearby high pressure
through at least Friday morning. Increasing SW flow ahead of a
cold fropa Friday afternoon should build ocean seas above 5 ft,
and wind gusts may approach or exceed 25 kt on the coastal waters
during this period, before relaxing Friday night.

Hazardous ocean seas of 5-6 ft (mainly SE swell) should persist into
daytime Sat, then settle down from Sat night into Sunday night. Then
after a warm frontal passage on Mon, S-SW winds increase to 20-25 kt
on the ocean waters, with seas building to 5-7 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Thursday
     for NYZ177-179.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Thursday
     for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...Goodman/DR