What's Happening In Newington

748
FXUS61 KOKX 030739 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
339 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures gradually warm, with summer like heat Friday into
Saturday.

2) Unsettled conditions arriving either late in the
day Saturday or Saturday night, and likely lasting into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The long wave trough which was in place pushes off the east coast
today, as upper level ridging to the west gradually builds east.
This will lead temperatures gradually warming over the next couple
of days.  Temperatures at 5kft will slowly warm from around 10 C
later today, to 14 C by late Thursday. As the ridge axis slides east
temperatures warm further aloft and at the surface with 5kft
temperatures getting to around 16 C by later in the day Friday. This
should eventually get temperatures into the lower half of the 90s
for a good portion of the area to close out the week for both Friday
and Saturday with night time minimums rising through the week.
However, the humidity is expected to remain at very tolerable levels
so heat indices are not expected to get above the actual air
temperatures which may prevent heat headlines. In any event expect
warmer 80s by Thursday, and lower and middle 90s for the
metropolitan and inland locations during both Friday and Saturday
afternoons. Dew point readings are expected to remain between 55 and
60 on Saturday despite the cold front drawing closer as a SW flow
prevails.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Questions remain regarding exactly how long this dry stretch of
weather will last through the day Saturday. Some global and AI NWP
guidance suggests a lead shortwave ahead of the main upstream trough
towards Saturday afternoon, while the some guidance delays the
arrival of any shortwave feature(s) until Saturday evening / night.
At this point it appears most of the day will remain dry, with
increasing chances late in the day and evening with a pre-frontal
trough potentially providing a trigger for convection as early as
late Saturday afternoon. The relatively higher chance for any
convection would be for western most sections, with chances
increases further east Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday
should feature unsettled conditions with showers and possible
thunderstorms around until the cold front moves through. The upper
level trough then slows late in the weekend with unsettled
conditions as shower chances potentially lingering into Monday. NWP
consensus then has ridging off to the west returning afterwards for
Monday and Tuesday of next week with another warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR as a weak sfc trough passes south overnight, followed by high
pressure building from the west.

N-NNE flow less than 10 kt gives way to sound breezes at or just
under 10 kt at KBDR/KGON after 15Z-16Z, then harbor/ocean SE-S sea
breezes this afternoon at most other terminals except of course
KSWF. Winds diminish this evening and become light SW.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Exact timing of sea breeze onset uncertain and could be an hr sooner
than fcst. KLGA should lock on to an ENE sound breeze 5-10 kt during
part of the afternoon before a S sea breeze late.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Thursday: VFR with coastal sea breezes.

Friday: VFR. Coastal sea breezes for KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. WSW flow
G15-20kt in the afternoon elsewhere.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a late day tstm at KSWF. SW
winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Saturday night: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm with MVFR or
lower cond mainly after after midnight.

Sunday: Showers and chance of tstms with MVFR or lower cond,
especially in the afternoon. Cold fropa with SW-S winds becoming NE-
E at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions prevail for much of this week. An exception
to this will be for a portion of the western ocean out to 20 nm with
a possible Ambrose jet late in the day for both Thursday and Friday.
The chances increase for more widespread small craft conditions,
particularly for the ocean out to 20 nm for the second half of
Saturday with gusts around 25 kt and ocean seas mainly at 4 to 5 ft.
Sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail behind a cold front
towards late Sunday.

Rip Currents: There will remain a low risk of rip currents for
today and into the first half of Thursday. However, the rip
current risk is expected to increase to a moderate risk by later
in the afternoon on Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:

Friday, June 5

KEWR: 95 (2021)
KBDR: 87 (2025)
KNYC: 99 (1925)
KLGA: 94 (2010)
KJFK: 90 (2010)
KISP: 88 (2010)


Saturday, June 6

KEWR: 97 (2021)
KBDR: 93 (2021)
KNYC: 98 (1925)
KLGA: 95 (2021)
KJFK: 90 (1968)
KISP: 90 (2021)


Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures:

Saturday, June 6

KEWR: 71 (2021)
KBDR: 67 (2025)
KNYC: 77 (1925)
KLGA: 76 (2021)
KJFK: 69 (2024)
KISP: 68 (2024)

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JE