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164
FXUS61 KOKX 111430
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
930 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low pressure will impact the region from Thursday into early
Saturday. This will bring a period of prolonged rainfall with only a
brief chance of rain mixed with snow far N & W of NYC Friday night.

2) Minor coastal flooding is possible along some portions of the
coastline during daytime high tide cycles on Thursday and Friday.

3) High pressure returns dry weather for most of the weekend
through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface low pressure with upper support is expected to slowly
strengthen as it shifts east from the Ohio Valley tonight and passes
nearby or just south of us Thursday afternoon into night. The low
then lingers just offshore to our east during Friday as the upper
low approaches the region. The storm system finally shifts away
towards the Canadian Maritimes Friday night into Saturday.

Generally speaking, precipitation chances are highest from Thursday
afternoon through Friday afternoon. Regarding impacts, there is a
chance of wet snow being mixed in with rainfall for the higher
elevations well N of the city as early as Friday morning, but this
is more likely Friday night. Too early for high confidence regarding
any potential accumulation there, but it would appear that any
accumulation would be minor with limited impacts as precip chances
will be diminishing by the time enough cold air filters in for
higher probability of accumulating snow being a precip type.

Flooding impacts due to rainfall don`t appear to be much of an issue
in light of progged rainfall amounts through the event around 0.5"
to 1.5" and current flash flood guidance values. But the latest CAMs
have increased MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg Thursday afternoon with low-level
convergence along the developing low. This will be worth monitoring
for some moderate downpours, briefly heavy, especially for urbanized
areas such as the NYC metro. Isolated rainfall amounts of 2 to 3
inches is not out of the realm of possibility.

Wind impact chances look low so far as well since the storm doesn`t
strengthen more rapidly until it`s well northeast of us. So while
winds should pick up Friday night into Saturday, gusts likely remain
below advisory thresholds.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of a recent new moon (Nov. 9) and an area of low
pressure forecast to move off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday will
bring the potential for minor coastal flooding during the daytime
high tide cycles Thursday and Friday. There remains some uncertainty
with the low track, and subsequent strength of the easterly flow
helping to drive the increased water levels.

Continued to use a model consensus of NYHOPS50/ETSS/PETSS, which
puts the typical, more vulnerable locations of the south shore
back bays of western LI and SW CT coast, right around the minor
coastal flood benchmark.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A large area of high pressure builds in from the west this weekend
through Tuesday. After any potential lingering precipitation from
the exiting storm system Saturday morning, dry weather prevails
through Tuesday with temperatures running around 5 degrees below
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will gradually slide east through this evening.
Low pressure approaches from the west on Thursday.

VFR through much of tonight with a chance of MVFR Thursday
morning as showers develop.

W-WNW flow will continue to back to the SW this morning/early
afternoon with speeds under 10 kt. Winds will become S-SE this
afternoon, especially near the coast and weaken with light
and/or variable winds this evening. E-NE flow will develop late
tonight into Thursday morning and begin increasing, with gusts
up to 20 kt possible along the coast.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may be off by an hour or two. Flow may
become variable for several hours after 21z.

Chance of MVFR conditions after 09z Thu with possible -SHRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Conditions lowering to MVFR, possibly IFR late with
periods of showers. E winds G20kt.

Thursday night: MVFR/IFR in rain. NE winds 15G20-25kt, becoming N
after midnight.

Friday: MVFR/IFR in rain. NW winds 15G20-25kt.

Friday night: Still a chance of MVFR or lower conditions and
rain at most terminals, except a snow/rain mix possible at
KSWF. NW winds G20-25kt in the evening.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR. Slight chance of rain at KISP/KGON in
the morning, otherwise VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.

Sunday: VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions prevail through tonight with a weak pressure
gradient.

Low pressure then brings an extended period of SCA conditions for
Thursday through early Sunday on most, if not all waters. Gale force
gusts are possible Friday into Saturday on ocean waters, but
uncertainty remains due to storm track. For now, only forecasting
near-gales.

All waters will return to sub SCA levels Sunday afternoon/evening
and remain so into the start of next week.

Low pressure then brings an extended period of SCA conditions for
Thursday through Sunday on most, if not all waters. Gale force gusts
will be possible on just about all ocean waters Friday through
Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...DR/DS
MARINE...BR