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109
FXUS61 KOKX 172355
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
755 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower chances into tonight, possibly a tstm especially NW
of NYC. No impacts expected.

2) Lowering humidity during Friday with dry and pleasant weather
through Saturday.

3) Wet weather expected for Saturday night into Sunday night.
Conditions may remain unsettled into Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An approaching cold front will bring chance of showers, possibly
a tstm especially NW of NYC, into tonight. Rainfall amounts
should be fairly light and under 1/4 inch, although locally
higher amounts N and NW cannot be completely ruled out in any
t-storm. The cold front should move across overnight from NW-SE,
bringing showers to an end late tonight across eastern sections.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cooler and drier air mass will gradually work in behind the
cold front Friday and into Friday night. Dewpoints are forecast
the gradually fall through the 60s during Friday morning, and
then through the 50s during the remainder of Friday, and
potentially into the middle and upper 40s by late Friday night.
This would allow temps in outlying areas to fall into the
upper 40s and 50s by Sat morning. With high pressure getting
farther east during Saturday afternoon and a developing E flow,
daytime temperatures across portions of the area will not make
it any higher than the lower 70s in the NYC metro area, and
upper 60s to the north and east.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
As high pressure departs the New England coast a warm front
will approach from the WSW, bringing more clouds Saturday night
and the chance of rain late Sat night, then likely/cat PoP
spreading east through the day on Sunday. PoP should then trail
off top chance from NW-SE late Sunday night.

Ingredients are coming together for heavy rainfall and flood
potential Sunday afternoon and evening as a warm front and then
weak sfc wave of low pressure approach and move across. Model
guidance shows good SW moisture transport with PW increasing
to over 2 inches, a deep warm cloud layer, strengthening/veering
wind profiles in the H9-8 layer providing additional lift and
WAA, and the right rear quad of an upper level jet streak up
across New England. Models disagree where axis of heaviest
rainfall might occur (to be expected 3+ days out), with the
ECMWF and GFS probabilities of 1+ inch rainfall in 24 hours
more across the Hudson Valley/CT, and the deterministic GFS/NAM
a little farther south closer to the NYC metro area and Long
Island.

Afterwards, forecast confidence remains below average for Mon-
Tue with uncertainty around the eventual positioning of the
frontal boundary, so chance PoP continues. By Tue the area will
be in between strong Canadian high pressure and a weak low off
the Mid Atlantic coast. Rain chances may decrease Tue night
into Wed as the high dominates more at first, then increase
later in the week as the offshore low gains more influence. E-NE
winds should also become gusty from Tue onward especially
along the coast, with temps below normal, only reaching 60-65
for highs, and falling to the mid 40s-mid 50s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front approaches and moves across the region tonight
into early Friday morning from NW to SE. High pressure builds in
through the rest of the Friday.

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some showers
will be possible tonight ahead of and with the cold front which
may produce a brief period of MVFR conditions. Can not rule
out a slight chance of a thunderstorm north and west of the NYC
terminals.

Southerly winds 5-10 kt shift to the SW overnight, and toward
the W to NW by or just before daybreak Friday with the passage
of the cold front. Some terminals overnight may become light and
variable. W to NW with wind speeds near 10 kt into early
Friday. A few occasional gusts into the upper teens can not be
ruled out Friday late morning/early afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for showers this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night-Sunday Night: Showers move in late Saturday night,
then become widespread Sunday into Sunday night. A slight
chance of thunderstorms. MVFR or lower possible at times.
Southerly wind gusts near 15-20 kt Sunday and Sunday night.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with possible showers. NE wind gusts
near 15-20 kt.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower in possible showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub SCA cond expected through Sunday. By Mon, E-NE flow will
strengthen, with gusts over 25 kt on the ocean and ern Sound. On
Tue, gales are possible on the ocean with gusts 35-40 kt, with
SCA cond on the non ocean waters where gusts 25-30 kt possible.

Rip Currents: Winds turn offshore and out of the N-NW on
Friday. A moderate risk should linger through the morning, with
the risk trending toward low later in the day. Offshore winds
continue into Saturday morning with more alongshore winds by
afternoon but lessening in intensity. This should allow for a
potential for a moderate risk of rip currents.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...Goodman/MW