375
FXUS61 KOKX 251453
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1053 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore today as a frontal system
approaches tonight and impacts the area on Saturday. High
pressure builds during the second half of the weekend and
settles nearby Monday into Tuesday. The high will give way to
the next frontal system late on Tuesday, which moves across the
area through Wednesday. High pressure may return next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Made minor adjustments to the probabilities into this evening,
with the slower timing of the warm front, and weak forcing
moving in early this evening.

A frontal boundary moves up to the north today across Upstate
NY and Northern New England as high pressure at the surface gets
offshore. Mid and upper level ridging takes shape through the
early afternoon, with the ridge axis getting further east late
in the day and towards evening. This will lead to a fair amount
of sunshine to start, but with ridging shifting east later today
expect more in the way of mid level clouds during the
afternoon. Temperatures will continue to average above normal.
There will be more of a departure from normal with respect to
temperatures across interior locations with a southerly
trajectory to the low level winds. This means coastal sections
will experience relatively cooler temperatures with mainly 60s,
with middle and upper 70s to around 80 across western and
interior locations.

For tonight clouds lower with some shower activity becoming more
likely towards and after midnight, although a few showers cannot be
completely ruled out during the evening across the western half of
the area. As the night wears on look for more widespread shower
activity with the approach of a pre-frontal trough and elevated warm
front. Overall, light shower activity takes shape from warm
advection during the overnight and into early Saturday morning with
likely and categorical PoPs after 06z. With dew points slowly
climbing though the 50s on a southerly flow it will be quite mild
and well above normal temperature wise with NE NJ and the NYC metro
hovering around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Look for the more widespread shower activity to take place during
the morning hours. Towards the late morning and mid day the
convective allowing models (CAMs) indicate a break in the action
with the pre-frontal trough and warm advection related shower
activity getting off to the east. This should get followed by a
relative break in the action. The actual cold front then begins to
swing through during the late afternoon and evening. Most CAMs have
scattered shower activity associated with and just ahead of the cold
front with enhanced reflectivity and possible convection with a few
thunderstorms possible. At this time it appears that any convection
would be sub-severe with minimal CAPE indicated in BUFKIT profiles
for the most part. The NAM 3km has indicated around 1000 to 1500
J/kg in CAPE, but this can often be overdone and is a known bias in
the NAM 3km. For now carrying isolated and slight chance wording
with respect to any thunderstorm activity. The winds will gust just
ahead of the front out of the SW up to 20 to 30 mph along some
coastal sections. The winds with the cold frontal passage quickly
shift to the WNW with a brief period of 30 to 35 mph gusts possible
as deeper mixing gets established quickly Saturday evening. Rainfall
totals are expected to average anywhere from a half inch to one inch
across the area. Drier air pushes in Saturday night with dew points
falling through the 40s. By Sunday morning it will be brisk and
noticeably cooler with widespread middle and upper 40s and NW winds
gusts to around 25 mph.

During Sunday the upper level gyre / low swings by to the north
along the St. Lawrence River Valley. With a cold pool aloft expect
fair weather cumulus to develop during the day, with the outside
chance of a rogue shower or two across northern sections in closer
proximity to the upper level low and steeper mid level lapse rates.
Much of the column will be quite dry so it should remain primarily
dry, but cannot totally rule out some sprinkles or a quick brief
shower up to the north. Brisk and cool despite pockets of late April
sunshine with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s which will
be around 5 degrees below average for the time of year. Winds may
gust to 30 to 35 mph at times as Canadian high pressure builds from
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No major changes were made to the forecast from Sunday night
through next Thursday.

Closed upper low and its associated trough will move off the New
England coast Sunday night. Ridging will then build over the
region through Tuesday. The ridge slides offshore by Tuesday
night as the next progressive shortwave trough approaches. The
trough will swing across the northeast Tuesday night through
Wednesday leaving behind a flatter ridge for next Thursday. At
the surface, a lingering surface trough from Sunday pushes east
as high pressure builds overhead Sunday night through Monday.
The high will shift offshore on Tuesday as the aforementioned
shortwave sends the next frontal system towards the area. The
system pushes through on Wednesday followed by the potential of
another high pressure for next Thursday.

Much of the long term will remain dry with the only chance of
showers occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday. The main area of
forcing passes our area to the north and moisture is limited
with the system. The latest model consensus probabilities
remain very low and generally 20-30 percent, highest well NW of
the NYC metro. Some weak instability is noted Tuesday evening
across the interior, so will carry a slight chance of thunder
for these locations. Otherwise, dry conditions likely prevail
into next Thursday.

Temperatures look to remain above normal through Wednesday with
Tuesday and Wednesday being the warmest days. Highs on Tuesday
should reach the middle and upper 70s away from the NYC metro on
NW and upper 60s and lower 70s closer to the coast. Winds are
likely to become more W on Wednesday allowing the entire area to
reach the 70s with temperatures close to 80 in NE NJ.
Temperatures may fall back closer to average levels on Thursday
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore through this evening. A frontal
system will impact the terminals tonight into Saturday.

VFR through 00z Saturday. Conditions should then begin lowering
to MVFR 02-06z with IFR becoming likely early Saturday morning.
There is a chance for LIFR conditions late tonight into early
Saturday morning. Showers are possible in the evening, but will
become widespread overnight into early Saturday. Improvement to
MVFR is possible by 15z Saturday.

SW winds increase this morning and will shift towards the S-SE
into the afternoon. Speeds will become 10-15 kt with gusts
around 20 kt possible, especially away from the immediate coast.
Gusts should end in the evening, but S-SSE sustained winds
10-13 kt likely continue overnight.

LLWS possible late tonight/early Saturday morning east of the
NYC metro terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts at KEWR, KLGA, and KTEB may be occasional this afternoon.

Timing of lowering flight categories and SHRA tonight may be
off by 1-3 hours. LIFR conditions possible early Saturday
morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: IFR in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR late
morning into the afternoon. Showers. Isolated thunderstorm
possible, especially afternoon and evening. SW gusts 15-25 kt,
becoming W-NW late day/evening.

Sunday: VFR. NW gusts 25-30 kt possible.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt possible in the afternoon and
evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.

With high pressure getting east of the waters sub advisory
conditions will prevail through this afternoon with ocean seas
not much above 2 to 3 ft. By late this afternoon into this
evening the pressure gradient increases some with southerly
gusts potentially approaching 20 kt for some of the southern
coastal waters, especially further west. Small craft conditions
will become increasingly likely during Saturday on the ocean
with seas climbing to around 5 to 6 ft, and wind gusts
approaching 25 kt for the southern and eastern bays of LI ahead
of an approaching cold front. SW winds will switch quickly to
the W, then NW from west to east with the passage of a cold
front by the late Saturday afternoon and evening. A small craft
advisory has been issued for Saturday for the eastern and
southern bays of LI along with far eastern LI Sound. For the
ocean the small craft advisory goes into Saturday night. The
winds switch quickly to the WNW Saturday evening, and then
become more NW on Sunday with small craft gusts likely across
all waters through the day.

A weak pressure gradient over the waters will lead to conditions
below SCA levels Sunday night through Tuesday morning.
Increasing S winds will occur Tuesday afternoon leading to the
next potential SCA Tuesday night into Wednesday on the ocean.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A special weather statement for potential wild fire spread has been
issued for NE NJ until 7 pm this evening as minimum RH levels
approach 30 percent by late morning and afternoon. Southerly winds
also increase with gusts up to 20 mph. The risk of fire spread
ends during the evening with as RH levels climb and a wetting
rain develops later at night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ340-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...20/DS
MARINE...JE/DS/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS