What's Happening In Newington

669
FXUS61 KOKX 051854
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
154 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
An Extreme Cold Watch in effect for Saturday evening through
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and continued cold through Friday.

2) An Arctic cold front will bring light snow accumulation
Friday night into Saturday along with frigid air, strong winds
and hazardous/dangerous wind chills through the weekend.

3) Temperatures moderate from Sunday through Thursday.

4) A frontal system approaches and affects the area Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
high pressure west of the region will settle over the area on
Friday, then weaken as offshore low pressure passes well SE.
Temperatures will remain close to 10 degrees below normal.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong cold front will approach Friday night move across the
region on Saturday. Some snow will accompany the front. Any snow
will generally be light in nature, with 1-2 inches expected,
with the highest amounts further east.

The more impactful weather will be the cold air and strong
winds, leading to potentially dangerous wind chills late day
Saturday into Saturday night. Stayed fairly close to the
previous forecast winds and gusts which were adjusted toward
higher NBM percentiles and MOS, while NBM temperatures looked
reasonable. Winds will be reach or come close to reaching
advisory criteria Sat into Sat evening. Expect sustained 25-35
mph with gusts 45-50 mph possible over a good portion of the
area (especially NYC metro and along the coast). Held off on any
wind headlines at this time. Winds will not be quite as strong
late Sat night into early Sunday morning, still sustained at
10-20 mph. Combined with low temps 0 to 5 below well inland and
in the single digits elsewhere, wind chills late Saturday night
into early Sunday morning will be as low as 20-25 below well
inland, 15-20 below most elsewhere, and 10-15 below in NYC and
the immediate surrounding east/west suburbs. Have issued an Extreme
Cold watches for the entire region Saturday night into early Sunday
afternoon.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
With strong cold advection continuing (as seen with veering winds in
forecast soundings) on Sunday and 850 mb temperatures ranging from -
14 to -22 C on Sunday, temperatures are not expected to rise above
the teens. With breezy conditions; a NW flow of 10 to 20 mph and
gusts of 20 to 30 mph, wind chill values will be as low as -10 to -
25, with the coldest readings well north and west of NYC, across the
Lower Hudson Valley and inland CT.

Moderation in temperature is expected through the week as arctic
high pressure weakens over the region and upper level ridging from
the upper Mid-West tries to makes its way into the area. The upper
ridge weakens as it approaches, so although it is expected to warm
up, temperatures will still be below normal through the period. By
Thursday, temperatures will be in the middle to upper 30s, while
normals are around 40, so it will be seasonably cool.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
The next chance for precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday as
a frontal system approaches. Right now, thermal profiles support
snow to rain or a rain/snow mix at times, depending on exact
placement of frontal systems and subsequent development of any low
pressure systems.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weakening high pressure settles over the region through Friday
morning, before giving way to approaching low pressure from the west
later Friday into Friday evening.

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. There is a chance for
MVFR stratus to develop during the day Friday but with confidence
still too low, keeping this out of the TAFs for the time being.

Winds will be NW for much of the afternoon, then more northerly
tonight into Friday. Wind speeds near 10 kt this afternoon for the
city and some coastal terminals, otherwise the remaining terminals
should be closer to 5 to 7 kt. Winds speeds tonight should settle
close to 5 kt, with interior terminals getting below 5 kt. Some more
variability in wind direction develops during the day Friday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance of some broken MVFR ceilings for the early afternoon on
Friday, amendments may be needed for this time frame.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon: VFR with light winds.

Friday night: MVFR or lower at times in snow, likely late at night.
WNW gusts 15-20 kt late.

Saturday: MVFR or lower in snow, mainly east of NYC terminals.
Lower chances of snow by afternoon. VFR returns by later Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. NW winds 20-25 kt with gusts 35-45
kt, highest afternoon into early evening. Winds and gusts gradually
decrease thereafter.

Sunday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions are expected through Friday night. NW winds
then increase to gale force following Arctic cold frontal
passage on Saturday. Peak gusts are expected to reach 40-45 kt.
Due to cold air/water temps and strong winds, moderate to heavy
freezing spray is also possible during this time frame.

Gales likely continue on all waters Sunday morning, with winds
diminishing through the day. A conversion to SCA is expected by the
afternoon, and SCAs come down for non-ocean waters by Sunday night.
SCAs likely remain in place for the ocean waters as waves of 5 to 9
ft on the ocean waters Sunday diminish to 4 to 6 ft Sunday night and
remain at or above 5 ft through Monday morning. Fire Island inlet to
Montauk point may persist into Monday night. Thereafter, winds and
waves remain below SCA for all waters through the rest of the long
term.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Sun Feb 8:

KEWR:  18/1985
KBDR:  18/1994
KNYC:   8/1895
KLGA:  21/1985
KJFK:  22/1967
KISP:  20/1985

Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934
KBDR:   5/1963
KNYC: -15/1934
KLGA:   7/1979
KJFK:   8/1979
KISP:   5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the all
time record lows for those sites. Temperature are not expected to
fall to those levels.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for CTZ005>012.
NY...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC/JP
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/JP