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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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042 FXUS61 KOKX 142053 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 453 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made to the forecast during this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and sunny conditions through mid week. No hazardous weather expected. 2) A couple of chances of rain in the mid to long term starting Thursday night. Limited to no impacts expected. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Gusty NW flow should diminish tonight, with clear skies and diminishing winds promoting radiational cooling. Temps tonight will be on the cooler side of the guidance, with 40s inland and in the Long Island Pine Barrens and the 50s elsewhere. The forecast low of 57 at Central Park would be the first time the low temp there has been below 60 since June the. Tue should also be on the cooler side, with highs in the lower 70s. As high pressure slides offshore, temps should moderate to a few deg above normal for Wed and Thu, with highs from the mid 70s to lower 80s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front is progged to pass through during Thursday night. Low chance of rain during this period, and with the loss of CAPE, no thunder expected. Rain threat should be done by the Friday morning commute with the cold front offshore by this time. Some disagreement among models regarding what would be another cold front passage this weekend. Most likely time of its passage would be Sunday morning, but its possible it lingers over or near us into Monday. Rain chances kept below 50% Saturday night through Monday. Any instability would probably be limited, so while it`s too early to have high confidence, severe weather and flooding chances so far appear to be very low to none. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds in through the TAF period. VFR. NW-NNW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt into the late afternoon. Gusts may begin diminishing or become occasional after 20Z. Winds will diminish below 10 kt this evening and then veer to the N-NNE overnight. Outlying terminals should become light N-NNE or variable. Light NE-ENE winds expected Tuesday morning. 5-10 kt Tue afternoon with S-SE sea breezes. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts could end up occasional this afternoon after 20Z, and may end 1-2 hours sooner than indicated in the TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday-Thursday: VFR. Thursday Night-Friday: Mainly VFR. Low probability of a shower. Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: Showers may bring MVFR conditions. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... There may be a gust or two to 25 kt on the ocean waters and Great South bay before sundown. Winds and waves otherwise stay below SCA through the forecast period. Rip Currents: There is a low rip current risk for the ocean beaches through Wednesday. SE swells will be limited with lighter winds Tuesday and Wednesday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC/Goodman AVIATION...BR MARINE...JC/Goodman |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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