What's Happening In Newington

193
FXUS61 KOKX 151437
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1037 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Smoke extended in forecast thru Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot conditions expected today with heat indices near 100F in
many areas. There remains a marginal severe thunderstorm threat
late this afternoon into early this evening. Areas of wildfire
smoke may also lead to hazy skies and reduced visibilities at
times.

2) Unsettled conditions expected at times this weekend into
early next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

3) High risk of rip currents at local ocean beaches today (see
Marine discussion).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A few different features to the forecast for today.

First, the heat for the week peaks this afternoon with the
warmest spots approaching triple digits. Ridging in place
stretching from the Upper Plains to the Northeast gets shunted
locally by a shortwave trough passing to the north. This will
push a surface cold front south through the area into the evening.
Before that though, a mild, muggy morning to start with
temperatures in the 70s and 80s across the local Tri State.
Continued to side with slightly cooler guidance over the
national blend given the persistent high bias seen with these
events. Still, H850 temps progged 22-23C and strong surface
heating ahead of any potential haze/smoke should allow most
areas to climb into the 90s this afternoon, with the hottest
urban spots of NE NJ and NYC near 100F. Factor in the modest
surface moisture and heat indices should approach or exceed
100F in most areas. Heat Advisory remains in place for the
entire local forecast area until 9pm this evening. While
temperatures Thursday remain warm, 80s to lower 90s for most,
dew pts fall off further behind a fropa this evening, and
conditions won`t feel quite as oppressive.

Second, the digging shortwave and approach of a cold front pose
a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop later today.
SPC maintained a conditional marginal risk (1/5) for much of
the area with the exception of S/SE CT. Strong heating early in
the day, dew pts in the 60s, and respectable shear aloft could
allow for storms to become severe should initiation occur. CAMs
are mixed with coverage of any potential activity, and highest
chances appear to be along the coast and offshore. Opted to keep
PoPs at slight chance (010.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005>012.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for CTZ011-012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-078-
     176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ079>081.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...JMC/DS
MARINE...DR