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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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225 FXUS61 KOKX 051932 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 332 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through the weekend. A cold front then approaches from the Great Lakes on Monday, passing slowly across the area Tuesday or even stalling in close proximity into midweek. A more robust frontal system may approach the area by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... High pressure centered over the western Atlantic ridges into the region with a light SW flow. This will result in higher dewpoints and low temperatures compared to last night. Dry through the night with lows ranging from the low 70s in the city and around 70 for most coastal areas, to the mid 60s well inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather continues on Sunday with subsidence and capping. h8 temperatures warm up to 17-18C, so anticipating highs in the low-mid 90s in the usual warmest spots in NE NJ, and mostly upper 80s to around 90 away from the immediate south-facing coasts. Dewpoints near the the top of the mixed layer look low enough for surface dewpoints to mix out at least a little during the afternoon for areas away from the coast - even on a SW flow. This will help keep heat indices below advisory thresholds. Dry for Sunday night with patchy fog late. The flow aloft remains anticyclonic during Monday, but less so during Monday night as the remnant circulation from Chantal approaches from the south. It probably remains dry through most of the morning as the only notable lift available appears to be from increasing instability, but held in check by mid-level capping. Shower/thunderstorm chances would then begin thereafter with mechanical lift joining in via a subtle shortwave(s) head of Chantal`s circulation. Chances then continue through Monday night with the remnant system even closer, but there`s not enough confidence from the varying model solutions to go with likely PoPs. Some guidance even suggests a narrow band of subsidence forming over the forecast area between an approaching cold front from the west and Chantal`s remnants from the south. Please refer to the latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center regarding tropical cyclone Chantal. Regarding temperatures and heat indices for Monday, h8 temperatures don`t change all that much from Sunday, but will perhaps be slightly warmer. Even if this is the case, there should be more afternoon cloud cover as compared to Sunday, therefore anticipating slightly lower high temps for the most part this time around. Surface dewpoints will be higher, however. Boundary layer dewpoints increase with the approach of Chantal`s remnants, making it difficult for surface dewpoints to mix out. Right now it still appears that 1-day heat advisory criteria will not be met. However, an advisory could still be needed in a few areas for Monday-Tuesday based on 2-day criteria. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Despite the unsettled nature of the extended forecast, global models were in fairly decent agreement, so the NBM was followed. A cold front will eventually move through the area and stall in the vicinity Tuesday. On Tuesday, heights aloft will lower but flow should remain fairly zonal with a subtle trough to the west. Disturbances in the flow will traverse the area through much of the middle of the week. High pressure over the Western Atlantic will promote a general S/SW flow which likely brings subtropical moisture up the East Coast. The combination of several mid-level disturbances moving through, a stalled surface boundary in the vicinity, and a moist S/SW flow will allow for much of the extended portion of the forecast to have a chance for showers and thunderstorms. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from Tuesday to Wednesday morning. Showers and storms during this period may produce locally heavy rainfall with some isolated hydrologic concerns. By the end of the week, more robust energy in the flow approaches from the west and allows the trough to dig into the Northeast. This will provide for a better opportunity for showers and storms as well as a slight decreases in temperatures. High pressure may try to build in from the northeast by Saturday. Despite chances for showers each day, high temperatures should remain in the middle 80s through mid-week and upper 70s to low 80s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR as high pressure remains offshore through Sunday. S-SSW winds around 10 kt this afternoon. Winds decrease in the evening, then go light and variable at outlying terminals overnight. S-SSW winds redevelop Sunday morning, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible Sunday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... An occasional gust 16-19 kt possible through 23z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday Afternoon-Night: Mainly VFR afternoon/evening. SSW gusts around 20 kt in the afternoon. MVFR/IFR fog possible east of NYC metro terminals overnight. Monday-Thursday: Mainly afternoon and evening showers/ thunderstorms possible with MFR-IFR. Highest chance exists late Monday through Tuesday evening. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through at least Sunday morning. Near-advisory gusts are expected Sunday afternoon into evening on the ocean with seas climbing to around 4 ft. Sub- advisory conditions are then likely for Monday through at least Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrological concerns are expected through the beginning of next week. Some tropical moisture may feed into the area Tuesday into Wednesday which may allow for an environment supportive of locally heavy rainfall. WPC has portions of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for this timeframe. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... No widespread hydrological concerns are expected through the beginning of next week. Some tropical moisture may feed into the area Tuesday into Wednesday which may allow for an environment with the potential for heavy rainfall. WPC has portions of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for this timeframe. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MW NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...DS MARINE...JC/MW HYDROLOGY...JC/MW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... |
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NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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