NewingtonWeather.COM

049
FXUS61 KOKX 112355
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
755 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for some locations
for the Monday morning high tide cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low pressure developing along the front will pass south of
Long Island late tonight into early Monday, with overall minor
impacts.

2) Brief minor coastal flooding expected Monday morning and
again on Tuesday for some spots.

3) A warm front passing to the north could bring shower,
possibly thunderstorm to Long Island/SE CT Tuesday night,
followed by a warm day on Wednesday.

4) Low pressure with a strong cold front may bring some wind
impacts Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Rain shield covers the entire CWA attm. Anticipate a swath of
heavier rain going into this evening as PW increases to near 2
inches along the coast as the upper trough to the west
approaches and a SE LLJ passes by just offshore. If this
materializes some areas could see rainfall of 1-2 inches in a
6 hour period this evening, with hourly rates no higher than
around 1/2 to 3/4 inch per hour. This would lead to nuisance
impacts that could be handled via advisories.

Easterly winds peak this evening, sustained at 20-25 mph with
gusts 30-35 mph closer to the coast.

With deep lift and elevated instability, there could be some
rumbles of thunder as the LLJ and upper trof approach.

The rain tapers off early Monday, with mostly sunny skies by
afternoon per NBM.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Recent new moon with high astronomical levels and increased storm
surge ahead of low pressure into early Monday will likely push water
levels to just reach minor flood benchmarks, especially for the
Monday morning and Tuesday morning high tide cycles. For Monday A
Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the south shore
back bays of Nassau into Queens as a well as for southern
Fairfield County.

Weak high pressure moving in late tonight into Tuesday morning
will present a lack of sufficient offshore flow with winds then
becoming more onshore by the end of the morning. So, water
levels during the morning high tide cycle will likely be around
the same as the previous day, and another round of brief minor
coastal flooding will be possible for the same areas, with the
threat perhaps spreading east into the back bays of SW Suffolk
County.

Along the oceanfront, building seas are progged to produce
breaking waves in the 5-8 ft range. The highest surf right now
is slated for tonight, primarily across parts of the south fork
of Suffolk County. Some minor beach erosion can be expected, but
felt the occurrence would not be widespread enough to warrant a
statement.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Less amplified and longer wavelength trough in mid levels
approaches Tuesday and moves across by early Wednesday. At the
surface, low pressure approaches from the north and west with
an accompanying warm frontal passage.

There will be a brief chance of showers along with a possible
thunderstorm Tue night across S CT and central/eastern Long
Island. Then temps on Wed should rise close to 10 degrees above
normal in SW-W flow, with mid/upper 70s for most of the CWA.
Latest MOS and higher percentiles of the NBM are even warmer,
with lower 80s in NE NJ/NYC and the upper 70s elsewhere. Amt of
warming will ultimately depend on the amt of afternoon sunshine
and whether a trailing cold frontal passage can hold off until
Wed night.

.KEY MESSAGE 4....
Global models show the potential of northern and southern
stream energy phasing and producing low pressure with a strong
cold front, impacting the forecast area Friday into Saturday.
Differences in extent and timing of phasing are leading to
differences in the placement of the surface low(s) and related
cold front. What appears to be more certain is some rainfall
during this period, likely with limited, if any, flooding
potential. Not anticipating severe thunderstorms with this
system at this time, however a strong pressure gradient could
lead to some wind impacts and an eventual need for some wind
headlines. Freeze headlines could also be needed for some of the
interior Saturday night due to strong cold advection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will impact the terminals through tonight, then
move offshore Monday morning.

Showers continue through 03Z for the metro terminals, and a
later for more eastern terminals. IFR conditions are expected
through daybreak Monday. Local/brief LIFR is possible, with the
best chances near the coast and at HPN 03-08Z. A gradual
improvement to MVFR is expected 11-13Z, then VFR by Monday
afternoon.

E-ENE winds and gusts will gradually weaken tonight as the
direction shifts to the N. There may be a brief period at
coastal terminals where winds become light overnight as the low
passes nearby, but should quickly increase again to around 10
kt early monday morning. A N-NNW flow is forecast Monday morning
into Monday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely through tonight for changing flight
categories. The TEMPO BKN004 may not occur if N winds remain a
bit higher than forecast.

End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: VFR

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible early. Chance of a
shower/isolated thunderstorm towards KGON at night.

Wednesday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible in showers, especially afternoon
and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing winds along with building seas will produce SCA
conditions on all waters, lasting thru most of tonight. Residual
hazardous ocean seas should last on the ocean Mon into Mon
night.

Another possible SCA event late Tue night into Wed for the ern
ocean waters with the next frontal system.

At least SCA conditions appear to be likely Fri through Sat with
the approach and passage of a strong cold front. Gales could
occur on all waters, but would like to see more model
consistency before making a mention of this potential in
the HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
     340.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/Goodman
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/Goodman