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854
FXUS61 KOKX 241838
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
238 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisory issued tonight for the CT coast and far eastern
LI.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Frost Advisory in effect tonight for coastal CT and far
eastern LI.

2) High pressure largely in control through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will remain over the area tonight with light winds
and clear skies. Coastal CT and eastern portions of Suffolk
County on LI will likely see another night of lows in the mid
30s and as low as 25 to 30 across the Pine Barrens region of
LI. While the growing season has ended across the interior, it
has yet to do so at the coast (Nov 1 or 11). Thus, a frost
advisory in in effect for these areas once again. The only
change this go around was to remove coastal Westchester.

Elsewhere, lows will range from the upper 20s across some of
the interior, to as warm as the 40s across the NYC metro. These
readings are about 3 to 5 degrees below normal for most
locations.

Warm advection with building heights aloft should result in
warmer temperatures Sunday night and less coverage of frost.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An anomalously strong upper ridge from the Lower Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes will translate east into Monday. A
the same time, a strong upper low tracking across central and
eastern Canada will suppress the upper ridge to the south,
sending a cold front across the area Monday night. The frontal
passage will be dry. Otherwise, the forecast area will be
dominated by high pressure through the week.

Highs will be in the 60s Sunday and Monday, possibly getting to
around 70 in the NYC/NJ metro on Monday. It will then cool down
behind the cold front Monday night with highs mainly in the 50s
for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be a few degrees above
normal. Frost coverage at the coast, where the growing season
remains in effect, looks to be patchy at this time.

It warms up for the second half of the week with temperatures
projecting to be well above normal by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period.

Light W to SW winds this afternoon around 5-7 kt. Winds
become light and variable tonight into early Sunday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Variable wind direction possible this afternoon due to
continued light flow.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday-Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions persist through at least the beginning of
next week.

Ocean seas may also approach 5 ft from Tuesday morning into
Wednesday morning with a building E swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ079-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DW