What's Happening In Newington

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FXUS61 KOKX 011440
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1040 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Higher chances for rain tonight into the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple lows traverse the local region over the next few days,
bringing periodic rain.

2) High pressure builds to close out the weekend and moves offshore
into early next week, setting up a drying and warming trend.

3) Rain chances increase mid to late week, possible thunderstorms
also with a frontal system moving in with potential multiple waves
of low pressure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mainly dry conditions expected today with warmer temperatures than
the previous day. The NBM temperatures leaned on the warmer side of
guidance and with weak high pressure moving offshore this afternoon,
this will set up more of a low level SW warm air advection in the
low levels. Sea breezes should easily develop along the coastlines,
keeping coastal areas cooler. However, expect NE NJ into NYC Metro
to be the relatively warmest area today as forecast high temperature
there reach the mid to upper 60s. Much of the remainder of the
region has forecast high temperatures in the lower 60s.

Tonight through Saturday night will be when we have more chances for
rainfall. The main source for the periodic rain will be a closed
upper level low on the border of Ontario and Quebec that will
eventually get more into Quebec on Saturday. Thereafter, it
retrogrades back northwest Saturday night.

There will be two upper level vorticity maxima that will move
through, one tonight into early Saturday and the other one Saturday
night. At the surface, a weak wave of low pressure moves west to
east across the region tonight into early Saturday morning. This
will bring some showers to the region. With little to no
instability and weak forcing, no thunderstorms are expected.
Rain amounts will be light and under a quarter of an inch.

Another larger area of low pressure then develops off the
Carolina coast on Saturday and that low pressure area takes a
track southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark while deepening
Saturday night into early Sunday. This will bring more of an
overrunning stratiform rainfall that will spread from southeast
to northwest across the region Saturday into Saturday night.

The model guidance has varied solutions with regards to the
areal extent of the rain with inconsistent model run to model
run trends being exhibited as well.

The rain with this looks to be light to moderate at most. Any
moderate steadier rain looks to be confined to the eastern half
of the region Saturday night on the backside of the offshore
developing low. Do not expect any hydrologic issues with the
rain with no convective rainfall expected. Total rainfall
forecast is less than a half inch.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Upper level trough axis shifts east of the region on Sunday, with a
gradual ridging trend in heights Sunday night through Monday.

At the surface, high pressure returns, building in from the west
Sunday before shifting offshore early next week.

Some gusty NW flow is expected Sunday as low pressure offshore
further deepens as it approaches Nova Scotia, steepening the
pressure gradient. The center of the high gets closer to the
area Sunday night into early Monday, allowing for pressure
gradient to relax and winds to lighten.

Higher percentiles of the NBM, 75th and 90th were blended with
NBM for some relatively higher winds Sunday and NBM dewpoints
were lowered a small amount as well during the day Sunday. Would
expect NW wind gusts up to near 30 mph for some portions of the
region.

Warming trend expected Monday into Tuesday with much warmer high
temperatures forecast. This will be with a strengthening low level
SW flow, helping increase warm air advection. Highs forecast Monday
reach well into the 60s to near 70 for a large part of the area and
for Tuesday, highs forecast reach the upper 60s to well into
the 70s for much of the region.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Another large upper level trough approaches the region for mid to
late next week. At the surface, a complex frontal system approaches
with potential for multiple waves of low pressure.

The weather pattern shifts to more rain with decreasing average
temperatures. In addition, there is the possibility of some
thunderstorms as well. Chances of rain increase Tuesday through
midweek. Showers become likely Wednesday and Thursday.

Winds become quite gusty as well with tightening pressure gradient
between high pressure offshore and approaching frontal system
Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there will likely be some
limitations with the low level warm air advection and less favorable
mixing environment.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds in through today.

VFR through much of the TAF period. MVFR possible late tonight
into early Saturday morning with -SHRA associated with an
approaching cold front. Best chances for any rain is KSWF.

Sea breeze likely develops this afternoon, with coastal
terminals becoming S or SSW. Winds then shift back to the W/NW
tomorrow morning following the frontal passage.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected through this morning.

Timing of sea breeze (S/SSW) this afternoon could be off by an
hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Chance of MVFR with -SHRA possible at times, mainly
during the morning. Additional -SHRA possible late in the day
for KISP and KGON. Light flow.

Sunday: VFR with NW flow 10-15 kt, G20-25 kt.

Monday: VFR with SW flow 10-15 kt, G20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR with S flow 10 to around 15 kt, G20 to around 25 kt.
MVFR or lower possible after 00Z.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected through the first half of this weekend.
Some possible SCA level wind gusts Sunday with otherwise sub-SCA
conditions continuing through the rest of the weekend.

Early next week, higher chances for SCA with southerly fetch and
gusty winds. Some possibility for gales at times as well for parts
of the waters towards middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MD/JP
MARINE...JM