What's Happening In Newington

392
FXUS61 KOKX 041425
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
925 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. A period of frigid air is likely this
weekend, with increasing likelihood for cold weather headlines.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and continued cold through Thursday night.

2) An Alberta clipper will bring a chance for light snowfall
Friday night, followed by an Arctic cold front bringing frigid
air and strong winds with hazardous/dangerous wind chills this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Despite a relative warmup, daytime temperatures will continue
to remain below normal levels by close to 10 degrees, with
overnight lows 10-15 degrees below normal through Thursday
night. A weak cold front passes through early this morning as
associated low pressure passes well north, while another weak
low scoots to the south. A southern stream low developing off
the SE coast Thu into Thu night shows no sign of a northward
trend and should have no impact on the local weather.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Heights drop aloft Friday through Saturday as a longwave trough
w/closed upper low over Hudson Bay deepens over the eastern US.
A weak Alberta clipper will partially phase with the trough as
it traverses the area Friday night into Saturday.

This clipper will bring with it a chance for snow showers.
Quite a bit of dry air remains in place over the area Friday
into Saturday and the low remains relatively weak until it
passes east of the area, so any snowfall that occurs will be on
the lighter side of things. Snow ratios will be high given cold
air already in place.

Best timing for snowfall appears to be Friday night into Sat
morning, first with weak WAA ahead of the clipper Friday
evening, then with the passage of the Arctic cold front late Fri
night into Sat morning. A few snow squalls may be possible with
fropa as low level lapse rates look to increase. Snowfall should
taper off after fropa Sat morning. Attm expecting only a dusting
to an inch of accumulation.

The axis of the longwave trough shifts east and tilts
negatively later on Saturday. This allows the clipper to rapidly
strengthen as its passes out to sea, leaving us beneath a
strong pressure gradient zone. This will result in strong cold
air advection and blustery NW flow Sat into Sat night.

NW winds on Saturday should peak around 20-30 mph with gusts
40-50 mph. Winds then gradually taper under a weakening pressure
gradient from late Sat night into Mon. Winds will still remain
brisk into Sunday, with gusts 25-35 mph.

Given the passage of the Arctic front, CAA on strong NW flow
and a deep trough aloft leaving us with much lower heights
aloft, we`ll be under a very cold air mass this weekend. Highs
daytime Sat will range from the upper teens to upper 20s during
the morning, with falling temps in the afternoon. Temps Sat
night should fall to the single digits in the NYC metro area
and closer to the coast, and to 0 to 5 below well inland, with
minimum wind chills by daybreak Sunday close to 15 below in the
NYC metro area and across Long Island, and 15-20 below inland.
Cold weather headlines will likely be needed for Sat night into
Sunday morning.

Temps Sat night are unlikely to reach record lows as the records
at all climate sites for that day are below zero. Temps could
however tie or set record low maxes for Sunday, and then get
close to record lows early Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds towards the terminals through the
TAF period.

Winds will continue shifting to the NW this morning around 10-15
kt. Gusts 15-20 kt are possible into the afternoon, but may end
up occasional. NW winds weaken tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may end up occasional and could end 1-2 hours earlier than
forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR into the afternoon. Evening/night MVFR or lower possible
with a chance of snow showers. WNW gusts 25-30 kt late Friday
night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow showers,
mainly east of the NYC terminals. Otherwise VFR. NW winds
20-25kt with gusts 35-40 kt during the day with peak gusts to 45
kt possible. NW wind 15-20 kt with gusts closer to 30 kt
Saturday night. Some peak gusts to 35-40 kt possible in the
evening.

Sunday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Peak gusts
to near 30 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions expected through most of Friday night. An
Arctic cold frontal passage very late Fri night into Sat morning
will bring an abrupt transition to gales on all waters Sat into
Sat night, possibly into Sunday morning. SCA cond then continue
for the rest of Sunday into Sunday evening, lasting on the ern
ocean waters into late Sunday night. Freezing spray could be
moderate to heavy at times this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Sun Feb 8:

KEWR:  18/1985
KBDR:  18/1994
KNYC:   8/1895
KLGA:  21/1985
KJFK:  22/1967
KISP:  20/1985

Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934
KBDR:   5/1963
KNYC: -15/1934
KLGA:   7/1979
KJFK:   8/1979
KISP:   5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the
all time record lows for those sites. Temps are not expected to
fall to those levels.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman
AVIATION...JM/DS
MARINE...Goodman