What's Happening In Newington

296
FXUS61 KOKX 051120
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
720 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated risk of fire spread across most of the area today.

2) Warm away from the immediate coast today with above average
temperatures, more seasonable for the remainder of the week.

3) A frontal system brings rain Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
more recent model runs trending drier with lower probabilities of
rain on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The combination of drying fine fuels, southwest to south wind gusts
between 25 and 30 mph, and relative humidity values between mainly
30 and 35 percent will contribute to an elevated risk of fire spread
for southern CT, the Lower Hudson Valley, and New York City on
Tuesday. The chance appears lower further east due to a a more
southerly component to sfc winds off the ocean keeping RH values
higher. Regardless of exact RH values, gusty winds with dry fuels
will be able to promote fire spread if ignition occurs.

This forecast considers meteorological, fuel, and land conditions
and has been developed in coordination with state fire and land
management officials.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
It turn warmer today with 1000-500 mb thicknesses rising on a SW-S
flow as high pressure pushes further offshore. Look for temperatures
from the metro on west to get a good 10 to 15 degrees above average
for this afternoon. Temperatures will turn relatively cooler further
east during the afternoon with a wind off the cooler ocean, but
still above normal overall. Expect a good amount of sunshine today,
and this will support lower and middle 80s across the warmer
portions of NE NJ and interior Southeast NY. A cold front will then
approach into Wednesday and pass through Wednesday night bringing
cooler temperatures, more typical for early May for the
remainder of the week.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The chances for rain increase across western portions of the area
very late tonight into Wednesday morning as a fairly strong cold
front approaches from the west. Latest NWP and AI guidance is
putting out about a half inch of rain on average across the region.
With the low level flow becoming more southerly right ahead of the
cold front look for the lower portion of the atmosphere to
stabilize, and this should limit any convective potential. There may
be enough instability above the boundary layer that may result in a
rumble or two of thunder, but overall not expecting any surface
based or significant convection. Essentially the area will receive a
beneficial rainfall. QPF totals have decreased some over time as NWP
guidance appears to be progressing the frontal boundary a bit faster
now to the east Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thus, the
bulk of the rain takes place Wednesday afternoon and evening. There
remains a chance of rain / showers into the day Thursday, but PoPs
have gradually lowered over time, especially further west across the
area. A second wave of low pressure is expected to develop to the
south, but NWP and AI consensus has trended further to the south and
east with this feature. Thus any rain on Thursday should be lighter
in nature and likely further east with clouds expected to linger
into Thursday evening. Skies are now expected to clear later
Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore through tonight with a front
stalled to our northwest. A frontal wave passes the through the
area tomorrow.

VFR for much of the TAF period. MVFR by 15-16Z tomorrow in
showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

S-SSW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt expected in the
afternoon and evening, strongest at coastal terminals. Gusts
should begin to weaken in the late evening though most
terminals maintain increased sustained winds around 10-15 kt
into late tonight.

A period of LLWS is expected tonight. SSW 45-55 kt at 2,000 ft.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Onset time of gusts today may be off by 1-3 hours.

Peak gust up to 35 kt possible at KJFK 20z Tue to 00z Wed.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday-Wednesday Night: Showers with MVFR or lower. Slight
chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. SW wind
gusts 20-25 kt, mainly during the daytime.

Thursday: Chance of showers and MVFR or lower.

Friday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20 kt, diminishing at night.

Saturday: Chance of showers and MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions prevail across all waters by late morning and
more or less continue through the day Wednesday. There may be a
brief lull in advisory level conditions across the western most non-
ocean waters late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Otherwise
expect advisory level conditions until at least Wednesday night
with some eastern non-ocean waters having occasional gusts of 30
to 35 kt. Sub advisory conditions are expected to return from
west to easter later Wednesday night into Thursday. Thereafter
sub advisory conditions should persist through Friday night,
followed by at least marginal small craft conditions towards
Saturday afternoon on a southerly flow regime.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     Wednesday night for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE