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931
FXUS61 KOKX 080006
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
806 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming up for Thursday, otherwise dry with near normal
temperatures into Saturday.

2) An area of low pressure will bring rain into the area for
Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An amplifying shortwave trough dropping southeast across the
Great Lakes and Northeast tonight into Thursday will send a
weak cold front across the area in the morning. The system is
moisture starved, but the some of the CAMs continue to show a
sprinkle or brief shower possible in the morning. Best chance
looks to be across southeast CT, where there will be bit more
moisture for the system to work with.

Thereafter, a few weak surface troughs will rotate through the
base of the upper and across the Northeast. With each there will
be a shot of cold advection and a return to normal temperatures
for Friday and Saturday. However, before then, Thursday will be
the warmest day with highs getting into the 70s, about 5 to 10
degrees above normal.

High pressure builds into the area during this period and
directly overhead Friday night into Saturday. Light winds and
clear skies will allow for strong radiational cooling,
especially Friday night into Saturday morning. Blended the NBM
with the colder MOS Friday and Saturday mornings. NBM typically
too warm in these scenarios.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Tropical Storm Isaias will strengthen into a hurricane over the
Gulf of Mexico the next 24h, making landfall early Saturday
morning along the eastern Gulf Coast. Refer to the latest
official track and intensity forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center for additional details.

There is a high likelihood of the remnant moisture from the
system interacting with mid-latitude energy, bringing a period
of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall across the region
on Sunday. Model consensus is for about an inch of rainfall,
with the NBM90th percentile 2 to 2.5 inches. The system looks to
be progressive enough to spare the region of a more substantial
rainfall. In addition, there is not much evidence the system
will have much instability work with, albeit precipitable water
values of 1.5 to 2 inches. This also looks to about a 12 to 18
hour period of rainfall with hourly rates likely well under an
inch. However, it is still too early to be specific with rainfall
amounts due to some uncertainty in the track and location of
the heaviest rainfall.

Winds do not look to be much of a factor Sunday with departing
high pressure over the western Atlantic and weak low pressure
approaching from the SW. Expect a S/SE flow. There is a full
moon and coastal locations will need about 1 to 2 ft to reach
minor coastal flood benchmarks. This will come into better focus
over the next day or two as we get into the window for surge
guidance. Right now, it is looking like a low end event.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure nearby shifts east tonight, with a cold front
moving through on Thursday.

VFR through the TAF period.

S/SW flow around 10 kt. Any remaining gusts subside by 2Z
tonight. Flow veers W, then WNW into late morning behind the
frontal passage, with gusts 20 to 25 kt returning by early
afternoon. Gusts subside in the early evening and speeds lower
under 10 kt by 00Z Fri.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible at KEWR and KTEB through
2Z tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR daytime. Chance of rain with MVFR/IFR cond at
night.

Monday: MVFR or lower in rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA has been issued for the ocean waters east of Fire Island
Inlet to Montauk Point out 20 nm, from late tonight into early
THursday afternoon. A strengthening SW flow ahead of an
approaching cold front will produce gusts up to 25 kt and seas
of 4 to 5 ft. Winds and seas will subside and become more
westerly in the afternoon.

Otherwise, expecting pressure gradient to not be that steep and
for conditions to mostly remain below SCA thresholds through
the weekend. Although, S/SE winds could bring a chance for SCA
conditions on the ocean waters Sunday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DW