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371
FXUS61 KOKX 051944
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
244 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of rain are expected tonight through Friday. Locally
heavy downpours could lead to nuisance type flooding, especially
across Long Island and southern Connecticut.

2) Drier and cooler air returns this weekend and early next week,
but clouds and chance for showers persist at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An unseasonably mild and humid air mass in place sets the stage
for the return of rain to the region after a couple of weeks of
dry conditions.

A cold front from the west approaches into tonight, with a
long, deep SW fetch ahead of it ushering in an anomalously moist
air mass for this time of year. The front slows and stalls
nearby or just to the east on Friday. As it does so, waves of
low pressure ride along the boundary. The region appears to get
into good upper level divergence with two favorable upper jet
features and a tightening thermal gradient and strengthening LLJ
expected early Friday morning.

Putting this together, a broken band of rain should develop and
drift east tonight across the forecast area, slowing and
intensifying into Friday AM from the metro and east. Can`t rule
some embedded thunderstorm activity as the wave passes on Friday
either. The front slows Friday but eventually is able to shift
east of the region by Friday night. This should allow the best
forcing, lift, and highest rainfall to set up across the eastern
third of the region.

Amounts fall sharply going west of the primary rain band, with most
areas outside of convective maxima remaining at or under an inch
total, in some cases considerably less. Guidance is in good general
agreement that 1 to 3 inches is likely to fall under where this
band sets up, with opportunity for locally higher amounts
toward 4 or 5 inches if some of the latest hi-res CAMs verify.
Latest thinking continues to place this axis across central/eastern
Long Island and southeastern Connecticut where WPC has a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall outlined.

Despite these values, the relatively longer duration of the rain
coupled with potential localized peak rainfall rates around an
inch/hour does not signal an overly high flood threat. So while
localized flash flooding can`t be ruled out, the overall risk is
low. More likely is typical ponding and nuisance type flooding,
especially in areas with clogged storm drains/poor drainage.
Should higher amounts be realized, more flashy creeks and
streams may briefly exceed their banks but the threat for more
significant riverine flooding is also low.

The steadiest of the rain gradually shifts east through the day
Friday, with metro NYC likely dry by mid to late afternoon, and
the entire area by late Friday evening.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the main fropa Friday night, a series or weak cold
fronts and surface troughs pivot through this weekend as an
upper level low spins over the Northeast.

Cloud cover persists through Saturday and the closed low may
also help to instigate scattered showers as it pivots through,
especially across interior S CT and the LoHud Valley late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Any additional QPF would
be light.

Despite the cooler air mass, temperatures still remain a few
degrees above normal for early November, with afternoon highs
this weekend in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak cold front slowly moves over the area tonight, then
stalls over the terminals on Friday. The front likely moves
offshore Friday night.

Flight categories this afternoon will vary between VFR and
MVFR. Conditions are expected to prevail MVFR this evening with
rain developing, then IFR overnight into Friday. KGON should
fall to LIFR late tonight and remain there Friday morning. The
rain may become moderate to locally heavy at times Friday,
especially across Long Island and southeastern Connecticut
terminals where an isolated thunderstorm is also possible. The
rain should taper off or become spotty Friday afternoon from NYC
terminals on NW. There is also a chance for a return to VFR for
NYC terminals before 00z Saturday.

S-SSW winds 10-15 kt this afternoon with occasional gusts
around 20 kt possible. Winds weaken below 10 kt tonight and may
become light and variable N and W of NYC terminals. A wind
shift to the N or NW is likely Friday morning and early
afternoon at NYC terminals with Long Island and coastal CT
terminals remaining out of the S or SE. Wind speeds will remain
below 10 kt on Friday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories.

An occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible through 22z.

Timing of wind shift to the N or NW on Friday may be off by 1-3
hours. Variable wind direction also possible on Friday due to
proximity of the cold front, which may remain just east of the
terminals for much of the day.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Afternoon-Night: IFR-MVFR with rain continuing, especially
east of the NYC terminals. Rain should taper off for KGON late.
Becoming VFR NYC terminals on NW.

Saturday: Showers possible with MVFR, mainly in the afternoon and
first half of Saturday night. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt Saturday
night.

Sunday-Monday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
A long S-SW fetch ahead of an approaching cold front remains in
place into tonight. This will lead to small craft conditions
with seas around 5 ft and gusts to 25 kt on the ocean waters
through at least this evening and may linger into a portion of
Friday east of Moriches Inlet. Conditions briefly relax Friday
afternoon through much of Saturday, before seas begin to climb
once again late Saturday, with small craft conditions returning
on the ocean by early Sunday morning. Marginal small craft
conditions develop for the non ocean waters late Saturday night
into Sunday. Seas near 5 ft may linger on the ocean into early
next week with small craft gusts likely on most of the non-ocean
waters as well.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

November 5:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 78/1961
KLGA: 75/2022
KJFK: 75/1975
KISP: 74/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5:
KEWR: 61/2022
KBDR: 59/1961
KNYC: 64/2022
KLGA: 63/2022
KJFK: 60/2022
KISP: 62/2022

November 6:
KEWR: 66/2022
KBDR: 62/2024
KNYC: 66/2022
KLGA: 65/2024
KJFK: 64/2022
KISP: 65/2022


Record Precipitation:

November 6:
KEWR: 2.12/1911
KBDR: 0.54/2018
KNYC: 1.47/1911
KLGA: 0.96/1963
KJFK: 1.42/1963
KISP: 0.71/1963

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR