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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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062 FXUS61 KOKX 011842 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 242 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain chances have been increased to likely for portions of the area tonight and Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Some rain, mainly light, is expected thru Saturday. 2) A slow-moving frontal system will lead to increasing rain chances mid-to-late week with decreasing temperatures. Thunderstorms are also a concern late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... H5 low over ON will drift into QC on Sat. The flow will bring a wave thru tngt, which will interact with an inverted trof across the area into Sat mrng. The best dpva is across the nrn portion of the cwa, so this is where chances for rain are highest tngt, then as interaction with the trof occurs, further development swd is possible into Sat mrng. Moisture transport is weak with this sys, with modeled PWs maxing out at around 3/4 inch. As a result, QPF is low. There is a chance however that pcpn may be a bit more widespread and focused on Sat mrng across srn areas due to the sfc trof, with NBM POPs too low. Still low QPF, but a little rainier than fcst nonetheless. The second shot of rain comes late in the day to Sat ngt as low pres develops offshore and tracks out over the Atlc E of the benchmark. Based on this expected track which is supported by the ECMWF, GFS, and AI-GFS, some additional light rain, mainly the ern half of the cwa, is all that is expected if anything attm. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A large upper-level trough will gradually amplify over the Great Plains and Great Lakes Tuesday into Thursday, eventually traversing the region on Friday. Just east of this trough, a stalled front will remain situated to our north and west. Several waves of surface low pressure may pass along it, which will lead to several shots at rainfall mid to late week. Tuesday will remain mostly under a ridge that gradually exits east. Higher heights will lead to warm temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to low 80s across the area. Wednesday will also remain mildly warm with highs in the 60s and low 70s. Given warmer air, higher humidity, and a nearby frontal system, rain chances increase late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a chance for thunderstorms, as well. On Thursday, the now amplified longwave trough nears the area which finally sends the main frontal system through the area. This leads to more widespread rainfall, but also cooler and milder temperatures Thursday going into Friday. The 13Z NBM is currently projecting mean 48-hr (Wed AM - Fri AM) rainfall around 1.00" with 90th percentiles around 1.50" to 2.00". Winds become quite gusty as well with tightening pressure gradient between high pressure offshore and approaching frontal system Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there will likely be some limitations with the low level warm air advection and less favorable mixing environment. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure shifts offshore overnight as a weak front moves through Saturday morning. A stronger area of low pressure then moves up the coast Saturday into Sunday, but largely remains well offshore of the area. VFR through much of the TAF period. MVFR possible late tonight into early Saturday morning with -SHRA associated with an approaching cold front. Best chances for any rain is KSWF. Sea breeze likely develops today, with coastal terminals becoming S or SSW. Winds then shift back to the W/NW tomorrow morning following the frontal passage. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. Timing of sea breeze (S/SSW) this afternoon could be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday: Additional -SHRA possible late in the day for KISP and KGON. Light flow. Sunday: VFR with NW flow 10-15 kt, G20-25 kt. Monday: VFR with SW flow 10-15 kt, G20-25 kt. Tuesday: VFR with S flow 10 to around 15 kt, G20 to around 25 kt. MVFR or lower possible after 00Z. Wednesday: MVFR or lower in SHRA and TSRA. S flow 10 to around 15 kt, G20 to around 25 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and waves will remain blw SCA lvls thru Sat. Low pres over the Atlc will bring winds close to SCA lvls on Sun, with seas on the ocean likely reaching 5 ft criteria. Increasing S flow on Mon may produce SCA cond on all waters Mon. Tuesday through Wednesday, SCA conditions are possible due to an approaching frontal system with some possibility of low-end gales, as well. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
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