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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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066
FXUS61 KOKX 161152
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
652 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Progressive low pressure systems will bring rain/snow/mixed
precip chances mid to late week. Predictability details on
precip type remain low at this point.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front will approach Tue night into Wed, then a trailing cold
front will pass south Wed night into Thu. POPs remains likely
to categorical for Wed afternoon/night as low pressure may form
along the boundary and pass over or south of the area. Some
spotty light freezing rain may be possible at the onset well
north/west of the area for any precip that arrives earlier
during Wed morning, but confidence was not high enough to
include in the forecast. QPF with this system should range from
1/10 to 1/3 inch, highest inland.
POPs for Thu/Thu night only slight chance as the front should
pass south and high pressure may briefly nose in from eastern
Canada. POPs increase to likely Fri as the front returns north
as a warm front and the high retreats. At the same time low
pressure treks from the Plains to the Great Lakes region and
another low forms along the boundary to our south.
Daytime highs should be in the lower/mid 40s, with nighttime
lows mostly in the 30s closer to the coast and 20s to lower 30s
inland.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region from the north behind
departing low pressure. The high weakens late tonight as a warm
front and low pressure pass to the north. This system may bring
a light wintry mix, mainly snow and rain, with a low chance of
freezing rain, to the region late tonight into early Tuesday
morning.
N/NE winds 10 to 14 kt at the coastal terminals this morning,
then diminishing this afternoon. Inland N/NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Winds become light and variable late this afternoon into late
tonight, then light SW.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of improvement to VFR may be off 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: MVFR with a light wintry mix ending early in the
morning, then becoming VFR.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in rain into the night.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain and MVFR.
Friday: MVFR and lower likely in rain across the southern
terminals and a rain/snow mix possible north.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Occasional gusts to 25 kt and seas to 5 ft are possible on the
ocean waters today, especially closer to the outer waters. SCA
conditions are more likely tonight into Tuesday, mainly as seas
build to 4 to 6 ft. Extension of the SCA is likely as seas
remain elevated through the first half of Tuesday night.
Otherwise, seas build to 5 ft once again late in the day
Wednesday into Wednesday night with the approach of another
frontal system. Seas remain around 5 ft through much of the day
Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP
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