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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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678
FXUS61 KOKX 250849
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
449 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SCA issued for the ocean waters Thursday into part of Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Expect mainly dry conditions into Thursday with warming
temperatures.
2) Rain Thursday night and Friday morning will be followed by
cooler and dry conditions this weekend, then milder and
continued dry conditions early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A fast, nearly zonal flow will feature broad-scale ridging
across the Western CONUS and weak troughing across the East.
Surface high pressure will largely be in control during this
time with a series of weak disturbances passing to the north.
Forecast is dry for late tonight into Thursday but can`t entirely
rule out a few showers during that time as a warm front passes
to the north. Skies will vary from partly to mostly cloudy
during this time.
Temperatures should warm to near to slightly above normal today
and then well above normal for Thursday, especially NW of NYC
where there will be little to no marine influence. Highs on
Thursday should reach 55-60 across eastern Long Island/SE CT,
the 60s most elsewhere, and near 70 in urban NE NJ. The immediate
south shore and Twin Forks of Long Island may struggle to get
much above 50. This will also be somewhat dependent on cloud
cover throughout and strength of onshore flow E of NYC.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front is progged to move across late late Thursday
night into Friday morning. Best chances for associated rainfall
will be from about midnight into the early daylight hours. The
atmosphere gradually dries out thereafter from late morning into
the afternoon, with temps rising into the 50s.
Dry conditions will continue into next Tue with high pressure
in control. Daytime temperatures will likely end up well below
normal on Saturday in the 40s, before slowly trending milder
early next week. High temperatures by Mon/Tue should be in the
50s to near 60. The coldest nights appear to be Friday and
Saturday nights with lows from the mid 20s to lower/mid 30s,
coldest inland.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period.
S-SW winds will remain around or below 10 kt through 12z.
Variable winds are expected at outlying terminals. SW winds
increase after 12z and then shift to the S-SSE in the afternoon,
strongest at coastal terminals. Winds speeds gradually decrease
again after 02z Thursday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift from SW to S-SE on Wednesday may be off by
1-3 hours.
Wind speeds may reach or slightly exceed 18 kt at KJFK from 21z
Wednesday until around 01z Thursday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Night-Thursday: VFR. SW winds G15-20 kt on Thursday.
Thursday night: MVFR to IFR conditions with rain developing
through the night. SW winds G15-20 kt possible. LLWS possible
late.
Friday: MVFR with rain diminishing in the morning, becoming VFR
in the afternoon. NW winds G15-20 kt.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA has been issued for the ocean waters Thursday into part of
Friday. Southerly winds will strengthen ahead of frontal system
over the Great Lakes on Thursday. Gusts up to 30 kt can be
expected on the ocean waters Thursday into the first half of
Thursday night, before weakening ahead of a strong cold front.
The latter of which passes through Friday morning. Northerly
winds behind the cold front will gusts up to around 20 kt with
seas on the ocean gradually subsiding below 5 ft from west to
east. The eastern sound and bays may need to be added to the SCA
in subsequent forecasts. Confidence was not high enough at this
time.
High pressure builds across the waters of the weekend with sub-
SCA conditions.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ355.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW
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