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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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470 FXUS61 KOKX 240833 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 433 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wet and cool conditions on Saturday, potentially lingering into Sunday. 2) Rain possible again mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A frontal system will slide to the south and west on Saturday and bring rain to the area. The exception may be for southeastern CT and the Twin Forks of Long Island where there is potential for much of the day to be dry. However, guidance is still struggling with how to handle the system once it is offshore Saturday night. The Canadian and NAM continue to be the slowest and closest with this system, bringing wet conditions on Sunday especially for eastern areas. The GFS remains the driest, keeping Sunday dry. Stuck close to the NBM for PoP and QPF forecast Saturday and Sunday as it shows a good blended solution. Latest guidance has better agreement with rainfall amounts for western portions of the area, with NYC and northeast NJ now likely to see at least an inch. NBM probabilities for 1 inch of rain from 12z Saturday to 12z Sunday for those areas is at 80 percent. Amounts lower the farther east you get. The flow will be easterly both days and this combined with cloud cover will keep highs in the upper 40s to low 50s Saturday and low to mid 50s for Sunday. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled weather returns mid to late week with the approach of a cold front and potential development of a frontal wave. NBM PoPs stretch from Tuesday through Friday, but this is likely a result of timing differences in the guidance. A washout is not expected by any means and right now the most likely timing will be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Periods of moderate rain look possible during this timeframe. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Stationary front to the south with high pressure staying well north of the region through the TAF period. Low pressure approaches from the west near the end of the TAF period. Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Sprinkles are being observed in parts of the area and may continue through daybreak, but will not impact visibilities. Winds are variable in direction near 5 kts or less early this morning, with a general northerly flow. Winds become more of a southeast to south flow on later today. Wind speeds stay generally in the 5-10 kt range. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday night: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible late with a chance of rain near NYC terminals and north and west. Saturday: MVFR or lower conditions with rain developing from west to east. E-ESE wind gusts near 15-20 kt. Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain. ENE wind gusts near 15-20 kt day into early eve. Monday: MVFR or lower possible with possible showers east of NYC terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Tuesday: Periods of MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. SE wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early eve. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Mainly sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on the waters through the middle of next week. The only exception is for the ocean waters Sunday into Monday where wind and wave forecast as increased given increased potential in an offshore wave of low pressure lingering nearby. 25 kt gusts and 5 to 6 ft seas are possible during this period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JT AVIATION...BR MARINE...JT |
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