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220
FXUS61 KOKX 101249
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
749 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonably mild through Wednesday.

2) Low pressure will impact the region late Thursday into early
Saturday, bringing potential of widespread rain and gusty winds.
Impacts, if any, at this time remain uncertain.

3) Coastal flooding will be possible (mostly minor) Thursday
and Friday during high tide cycles for portions of the coast,
particularly during the daytime high tides.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A shortwave passes through New England today which will lead to
increased cloud cover for the first half of today, decreasing as we
get into the evening, with clear skies taking over tonight under
weak ridging aloft through Wednesday.

Overall, it will remain dry due to limited available atmospheric
moisture. Expect seasonably mild temperatures with highs in the low
to mid 60s today and Wednesday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Medium range global and AI guidance are coming into closer agreement
on track and timing with regard to a low pressure system impacting
us Thursday into Saturday.

A deep longwave trough will set up west of the area on Thursday with
a closed upper low over the Great Lakes making its way over the
northeast on Saturday, exiting east of the area Saturday night into
Sunday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over Ohio ahead of
the longwave trough on Thursday, then gradually strengthen as it
tracks over or just south of the area Thursday night. Guidance
differs in exact location of this low.

Regardless, expect increasing chances for light stratiform rainfall
Thursday, becoming widespread Thursday evening and night. Friday
into Friday night the low will gradually move east and possibly
northeast of the area with cold air being reinforced into the region
due to the anomalous upper-low moving into the area. Light
precipitation will remain Friday, tapering west to east Friday night
into early Saturday. As the precipitation tapers, the air will be at
its coldest. Friday night, surface temps may get below freezing in
the northern interior. If it gets as cold as anticipated before
precipitation ends, then based on model atmospheric profiles, some
rain mixed with low ratio wet snowfall is possible in the interior
late Friday night into early Saturday morning. A rain-snow mix is
not expected for NYC/Long Island, most of metro NE NJ, and immediate
coastal locations. Even then, if temps remain warmer than forecast,
or if the upper low progresses faster than anticipated cutting off
precip early, then its possible snow may not occur at all. There is
still some uncertainty with regards to the, but as the system
evolves, confidence in this forecast will increase.

Late Saturday into Sunday conditions will become dry under partly
cloudy skies. Highs Friday through Sunday will be cooler in the
upper 40s to low 50s. Northerly winds may also become gusty Thursday
night through Friday night.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Coastal flooding will be possible Thursday and Friday during
high tide cycles, particularly during the daytime high tides.

At this point, using a blend of ETSS, ESTOFS and the 50th
percentile from Stevens NY HOPS Ensemble, the resulting surge
forecast places some parts of the coastline with total water
levels within the minor coastal flood category. The upper end of
the Stevens Institute NY HOPS ensemble indicates possible
moderate coastal flooding during high tide cycles on Friday.

There is still a lot of uncertainty especially for Friday with
the surge forecasts. This will be dependent on the evolution of
low pressure and the associated winds as well as related surge.
Astronomical levels will be on the higher side with a recent
new moon so it will take less of a positive departure for minor
coastal flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains centered well south and west of the region
through the TAF period.

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.

Westerly winds on average much of the TAF period. Today winds
will vary from W to WSW and then more W to NW tonight. Wind
speeds near 5-10 kts into this morning as well as later
tonight. Wind speeds near 10-15 kt towards late this afternoon
and this afternoon during which time gusts near 20-25 kt are
also expected to develop. These last into early this evening
before subsiding.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Start and end time of gusts may be off by +/- 1-3 hours.

Peak gusts to 30 kt possible this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday-Wednesday night: Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday night: Conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR
and lasting through Friday night with periods of rain. E winds
gusts to near 20 kt forecast, gusts 25-30 kt possible Thursday
afternoon and night, shifting northerly for Friday with gusts
near 20-25 kt forecast and peak gusts to 30kt still possible
through Friday night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with showers, mainly in the
morning. Snow showers possibly mixed in north of the city
terminals. N-NW winds G20-25kt forecast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue today through early tonight on the eastern
two ocean zones for 25 kt gusts and 5-6 ft waves.

The pressure gradient will relax late tonight, allowing all waters
to then return to sub-SCA conditions. Sub-SCA will hold through
Thursday morning.

Thursday afternoon through Sunday most, if not all waters will be a
SCA levels. A period of gales on outer ocean waters and possibly
inner ocean waters Friday into Friday night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/BR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR