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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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177 FXUS61 KOKX 150838 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 338 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A light snow accumulation is still likely, especially across the NY/NJ metro and Long Island. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Guidance continues to support a light accumulating snowfall tonight into Monday. The best chance will be across Long Island and the NYC/NJ metro. 2) Progressive low pressure systems will bring rain/snow/mixed precip chances mid to late next week. Predictability details remain low at this point. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... NWP guidance is coming into better agreement with the minor snowfall event tonight into Monday. Although there remains some uncertainty, current model consensus from previous run is little changed and the area remains on the northern fringes of the snow from offshore low pressure and approaching shortwave from the northwest. Snow accumulations should be around an inch across Long Island, NYC, and NE NJ, with less than an inch elsewhere, and possibly just a trace of snow across SE CT. A reasonable worst case would be 2-3" looking at the GFS 90th percentile. NBM 90th percentile looks too high, opted to use GFS ensemble as a reasonable worst case scenario, which is just slightly higher than the ECMWF 90th percentile. Any snow should taper off during the beginning of any commute Monday morning, but with Monday being a holiday, and only minor snow accumulation, there is less of an impact than would normally be the case for a Monday morning commute. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A warm front approaches Monday night into Tuesday, then the associated cold front remains nearby into late week. POPs have increased to 50 to 80 across the forecast area for Wed afternoon/night as low pressure may form along the boundary and pass over or south of the area. This is still a few day out and there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the track of the low and where the front will be. With the frontal boundary still in the vicinity slight chance to chance POPs are warranted thereafter until Thursday night. However, much of the area from Thursday morning through the first half of Thursday looks to be dry. Another low may form along the frontal boundary affecting the area for Friday, so chances increase to likely by this point. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds across the area overnight and then gradually retreats to the northeast on Sunday. Low pressure will pass south of the terminals late Sunday night into Monday. VFR for much of Sunday. For the overnight there is a low chance of MVFR in fog for at a few of the outlying terminals, KISP, KBDR, KGON, and KHPN. Then MVFR/IFR conditions develop across the terminals after 00Z Monday as light snow develops. Best chance will be at the coastal terminals. The CT and Lower Hudson terminals may only to get MVFR. The forecast area will be on the northern periphery of a storm system, so any slight adjustments to the track north and south will make a difference. This looks to be a 1-2 inch snowfall at the NYC and LI terminals and less than an inch elsewhere. Light and variable winds overnight will become N/NE at less than 10 kt in morning, veering around to the E in the afternoon. E/NE winds strengthen at the coastal terminals Sunday night to around 10 kt, with few gusts 15-18kt possible. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments unlikely through 00Z Monday, then become likely with the onset of light snow. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Late Sunday night and Monday: MVFR or lower into Monday morning, with snow likely for at least NYC metro/LI terminals. Light accumulation possible. The snow will end by 12Z Monday. Tuesday: VFR. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible. Rain/snow mix possible, especially inland, Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thursday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure will be centered north of the waters today. This will result in sub advisory conditions and mainly 2 to 3 ft ocean seas through this evening. An offshore low will pass south and east late tonight into Monday morning with marginal small craft conditions possible for the ocean waters Monday afternoon, with more widespread 5 to 6 ft seas likely into Monday night into Tuesday night. Marginal small craft seas may linger into Tuesday night, and through Wednesday-Thursday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...MET/DW MARINE...JP |
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