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214
FXUS61 KOKX 021143
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
743 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Borderline SCA conditions are possible on the ocean waters
this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A warm front will likely bring a round of showers and
embedded thunderstorms into the area late tonight into Thursday
morning, followed by a another chance Thursday afternoon and
evening with a cold front.

2) Mainly dry, seasonably cool conditions are forecast for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure ridging southward form eastern Canada and into
the area today will a keep a frontal boundary stalled to the
south and west. In addition, an easterly flow will keep much of
the area mostly cloudy with temperatures not getting out of the
70s. Some sun will be possible across eastern LI and SE CT,
deeper into the low-level ridge. Any upstream convection that
forms along the boundary to the west will struggle to get east
into the stable airmass across the area. A few showers are
possible, but primarily north and west of NYC.

As low pressure tracks into eastern Canada, undercut by a band
of strong westerlies, the warm front will lift across the area
late tonight into Thursday morning. CAMs vary in the extent of
the coverage, while the dynamical models are more supportive of
large scale thermal forcing and decent coverage. Th airmass will
initial starts off stable, but gradually destabilizes overnight
as the easterly flow veers more southerly. While PW values
remain close to 2 inches, decent westerly flow aloft will keep
the activity moving, limiting any training issues. On average,
expect around 0.50" of rainfall across the area. Localized higher
amounts are likely. Any flooding will primarily be limited to
the minor, nuisance variety. Localized flash flooding cannot
completely be ruled out.

SPC does have the NY/NJ metro up into western portions of the
Lower Hudson Valley in a marginal risk of severe weather. While
there is some directional shear due to the low-level easterlies,
modest W flow aloft, the airmass is slow to destabilize tonight.
Thus, the severe threat is low at this time.

Once in the warm sector on Thursday, airmass will destabilize
with highs getting into the 80s for most locations with dew
points in the lower 70s. There is some uncertainty with the
amount of drying and mid-level warming in a deep westerly flow
on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Those factors
would limit the magnitude of the convection later in the day.
However, there are still indications that strong to severe
convection is a possibility with moderate to high CAPE and 40kt
of mid level flow. This will need to be watched.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A drier pattern will set up Friday into the holiday weekend.
High pressure begins to build in from the north. Mainly dry
conditions are expected. Temperatures fall on Sat close to
normal, then below normal for Sun. Potential for a slight
warming trend on Labor Day. Less humid conditions are also
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A front will stall and linger south of the terminals through
this afternoon before moving back north through the terminals as
a warm front tonight into Thursday.

MVFR to IFR this morning gradually improving to mainly MVFR for
the day, especially for western terminals. Eastern terminals
expected to improve to VFR with drying easterly flow. SHRA
becomes possible this afternoon but not confident enough to
include in the TAFs. Included SHRA and Prob30 for TSRA tonight
where higher confidence exists, though timing may be off by a
few hours. Slow to improve conditions into Thursday.

E-NE winds around 10 kt this morning. Winds gradually shift SE
by the afternoon/evening then S tonight. Winds increase out of
the SW into Thursday morning at 10-15kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of SHRA and TSRA may be off by a few hours.

Timing of flight category changes may be off by a few hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Thursday: MVFR or lower at times, especially in the morning.
Showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening.

Friday-Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
An easterly flow had brought seas on the ocean waters to around
5 ft, but winds will relax some, gusting to around 20kt this
morning. Thus, occasional 5 ft seas are possible. Plan to hold
off on the issuance of SCA. Winds will then gradually diminish
late morning into the afternoon. Otherwise, winds and seas are
generally expected to remain blw SCA lvls thru the rest of the
week.

Rip Currents:

The rip current risk is expected to be moderate today in a 3-4
ft E swell at 6-7s. E winds 10-15kt will produce a longshore
current. A 2-3 ft E/SE swell on Thursday combined with a southerly
flow at 10-15kt will keep a moderate risk in place.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DW