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079
FXUS61 KOKX 161805
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
205 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update made to the aviation section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A warm front brings showers early today, with a strong cold front
bringing a line of heavier showers and a few strong, to possibly
severe thunderstorms briefly during this evening. Any storms have
the potential to bring strong, gusty winds. A few isolated damaging
winds gusts are possible with any severe storms.

2) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend
along with Gusty NNW winds during Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front pushes in from the southwest through the morning and
should exit northern and northeastern sections by early afternoon.
The rain during the first half of the day will be a result of warm
air advection at and just above the 850 mb level. The winds start
out from the SE, then turn southerly, before going SW during the
afternoon. Some gusty winds at times later today are expected closer
to the water across eastern coastal sections. Dewpoints will be
rather elevated for this time of year getting well into the 60s in
many places, especially further east on a SW flow. If clouds can
scatter out enough behind the departing warm front for roughly a 3
hr period or so later in the afternoon then instability would be a
bit higher. This will be critical in supplying fuel to any storms
attempting to initiate along the cold front late in the day. The
region gets into the warm sector for about a 5-6 hr period, but any
additional sunshine would lead to a touch more instability which is
the question with regard to the convective / severe potential. Long
hodographs with low-top convection and mid level lapse rates around
6 C/km may lead to strong gusty winds. If any storms can take
advantage of any additional instability then a few isolated damaging
wind gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest of any storms. SPC
has placed most of the region in a Slight risk of severe weather,
with far northeastern sections in CT in a Marginal risk. Wind is the
primarily threat with any storms in the low CAPE / high shear
environment.

CAM guidance is in excellent agreement with regard to the timing of
any convection along the cold front as the guidance is in lock step
with regard to the timing of the frontal passage. Which now stands
around 22z for far western sections, around 23-0z for the metro, and
closer to 02z for far eastern sections. Thus, the front moves very
quickly through the area in a span of about 4 hours from west to
east. With the passage of the front the rain and any storms will end
quickly as the winds switch quickly to the WNW, and more NW later at
night. Drier air works in for western portions of the area, but will
take longer to get into eastern sections. The upper trough axis lags
behind the surface features quite a bit, thus lingering rain and
showers is expected east of the metro and for the eastern third of
the area towards and after 06z to about 12-13z Saturday morning for
far eastern sections.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this weekend
along with Gusty NNW to N winds developing towards mid to late
Saturday morning and continuing through the afternoon. Winds may
gust up to 35 mph in some locations. Thus a dry, blustery and much
cooler day despite developing sunshine. Temperatures are only
expected to reach the lower and middle 50s during the day.
Widespread 30s to around 40 are expected for lows Saturday night.
Some far northern sections may get down to freezing. Some
temperature moderation is likely towards late in the day on Sunday
with daytime temperatures recovering a little into the upper half of
the 50s with much lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes and
high pressure settles over the area during the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front moves through late day into early evening.

IFR/MVFR to start, then VFR late afternoon mainly for the city
terminals. Line of showers with potential thunderstorms
anticipated for most terminals in the 22-00z time frame, except
no chance of thunder anticipated for KISP/KGON. Westerly gusts
with this line of showers would mostly likely end up 30-40kt.
Winds up to this point mainly SW with gusts around 20kt
developing in the afternoon.

VFR for all by midnight tonight with NW-N winds gusting mostly
20-25kt. Showers expected for KISP/KGON through the overnight
hours, but could be possible elsewhere except KSWF through the
night.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
IFR could last until around 19z. Timing of flight category
changes could be off by 1-2 hours. Thunderstorm threat timing
could be off by about an hour. Isolated gusts 40 to 50 kt are
possible with any thunderstorm.

Chance of MVFR in showers through tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday PM: VFR. N winds G25-30kt, diminishing in the evening.

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR likely, a chance of MVFR in -shra and a
chance of NE wind G25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions ramp up this morning with small craft conditions quickly
developing for most waters in a southerly flow, especially for the
afternoon when the winds turn more SW ahead of an approaching cold
front. The western LI Sound and NY Harbor may only see a few
occasional gusts of 20 to 25 kt today. The cold front passes through
this evening with the winds becoming W, then NW late tonight and
into Saturday morning. A period of gales remains possible across the
ocean waters for the late morning and afternoon on Saturday. Small
craft conditions will likely linger for Saturday night before sub
advisory conditions return briefly for a good portion of Sunday.
Seas however become somewhat elevated towards Monday morning with a
prolonged period of small craft seas and gusts hovering near 25 kt
at times out over the ocean with the potential for an offshore storm
leading to gusty NE winds at times into the mid week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
     for ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC