What's Happening In Newington

849
FXUS61 KOKX 192336
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Heat Advisory remains in effect for NYC and northeast New
Jersey as hot weather continues through Wednesday.

2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

3) A much cooler airmass settles over the region Thursday into the
holiday weekend with an ongoing chance of showers from time to
time.

4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good
boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Southwest flow around an offshore high will continue to keep
temperatures well above normal through the day on Wednesday.
Temperatures have risen well into the 80s and 90s away from the
immediate coastline so far today. Overnight lows will not
provide much relief, only falling into the mid 70s across the
NYC metro and remaining in the mid 60s across much of the rest
of the area.

While temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler
than today, heat index values will once again rise into the mid
90s across much of New York City and northeast New Jersey. With
this in mind, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas.
Outside of the advisory area it will still be unseasonably
warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and heat index values
in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coastline.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
While an isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be completely
ruled out this afternoon and evening across the Lower Hudson
Valley and interior southern Connecticut, conditions overall are
expected to remain dry as the best upper level support remains
north of the area and subsidence helps to suppress convective
development.

A better chance of showers and thunderstorms exists on
Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region. Precipitation
chances will increase through the day, with the best chance for
showers and storms between about 2pm-8pm. While storm coverage
remains uncertain, any storms that do develop could contain
strong gusty winds, with high resolution model soundings
indicating the potential for 500-1000 J/kg of DCAPE during the
afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire
area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Wednesday. While
brief heavy downpours are possible in any storms, overall these
storms should be quick moving, which will mitigate the potential
for any flooding.

With the front lingering just offshore, shower chances will
continue through Wednesday night across Long Island and portions
of New York City.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
High pressure begins to build toward the region on Thursday in
the wake of the front. This will bring an end to any lingering
showers along the coast Thursday morning, with dry conditions
continuing into the day on Friday. Temperatures will also be
15-20 degrees colder, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. This
is near to even a few degrees below normal for this time of
year.

Disturbances in the mid levels are forecast to push into the
region from mainly a southwest direction during the course of
the holiday weekend. The higher likelihood of shower activity
currently is slotted for Friday night into Saturday. Afterwards,
subsequent shortwave timing differences take place among the
various NWP and AI global guidance. Additional shortwaves are
expected to move across Sunday, all while heights build along
the Mid Atlantic coast. On Monday additional energy may attempt
to work in, this time from the west. Therefore the expectation
at this time is for intervals of unsettled conditions featuring
on and off shower activity. Forecast uncertainty increases more
for the second half of the holiday weekend, in particular for
Sunday into Monday. A frontal boundary is progged to be stalled
to the south throughout the holiday weekend, and may get north
enough to bring another round of unsettled conditions with
showers late Monday into Tuesday.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures
remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause
hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly
immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes
or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to
avoid this threat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Offshore high pressure gives way to an approaching cold front
Wednesday. The front moves across late Wednesday into Wednesday
evening.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 18Z Wednesday.
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to
develop after 18Z Wednesday, with the best chance from 21-00Z.
Kept TSRA chances in a PROB30 at this time as confidence in the
coverage of TSRA remains uncertain. If a thunderstorm does
occur, it could be strong to severe with brief strong gusty
winds up to possibly 40 to 50 kt. MVFR or lower condition
possible in any TSRA.

Winds will be primarily SW through tonight and then more WSW
early Wednesday, becoming more NW late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. Wind speeds generally near 10-15 kt much of
the TAF period with gusts to near 20 kt Wednesday afternoon.


  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible to refine timing of showers and thunderstorms.

A few hours of uncertainty with wind gusts, start and end times
could be few hours off from TAF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Night: Winds becoming more NW into Wednesday evening.
Thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday evening with showers
could linger along coastal terminals with MVFR or lower
possible. Otherwise VFR.

Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions possible early for coastal
terminals and NYC terminals at times with a chance of showers.
Mainly VFR thereafter.

Friday: Possible showers and MVFR conditions. Chances of showers
increase late day into night. Showers become likely at night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower with chances of showers. NE wind gusts
15-20 kt during the day.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters
through the day on Wednesday. While gusts so far have remained
below 25 kt, still expecting seas to build to 5-6 feet and
remain elevated through the day on Wednesday. In addition to the
elevated seas and marginally gusty winds, a cold frontal
passage late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening will
bring with it the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Once the front passes, conditions are expected to remain below
SCA levels into Saturday morning before an increasing easterly
flow brings advisory conditions to the ocean, and potentially to
some of the non-ocean waters Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures
remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause
hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly
immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes
or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to
avoid this threat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

May 19:
KEWR: 98/1962
KBDR: 89/2017
KNYC: 99/1962
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 89/2017

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 19:
KEWR: 67/1986
KBDR: 66/2017
KNYC: 68/1986
KLGA: 68/2017
KJFK: 67/2017
KISP: 65/2017

May 20:
KEWR: 72/1996
KBDR: 61/2019
KNYC: 74/1996
KLGA: 77/1996
KJFK: 63/1996
KISP: 62/1996

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FEB/JE
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...FEB/JE