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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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731 FXUS61 KOKX 190832 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 432 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and seasonably warm conditions prevail through Monday. 2) Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely Tuesday afternoon into a portion of Wednesday. 3) Seasonably warm and dry weather should prevail Thursday into the start of next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will pass across the area before day break with high pressure building in from the west through the day. Much drier air will filter into the area setting the stage for comfortable humidity levels (dew points likely falling into the 50s). The dry air will be ushered in with a NW flow that could gust 20-25 mph, mainly this morning. Winds should weaken into the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s, slightly lower than average for July 19th. Sunday night should see temperatures fall into the 50s inland and lower to middle 60s elsewhere. There is not much change expected for Monday as the high pressure remains in control. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... An anomalous mid-upper level trough is progged to dig across the Great Lakes on Tuesday and then over the northeast through Wednesday. An associated low pressure moving across SE Canada will begin to lift a warm front across the area on Tuesday/Tuesday night, which will be followed by a cold front passage on Wednesday. Tuesday should start dry, but increasing probabilities for showers and thunderstorms occur through the afternoon and evening. This potential event is still beyond the scope of the high resolution modeling, but the global guidance is starting to signal the potential for locally heavy rainfall as well as a risk for severe thunderstorms. Mesoscale details are still uncertain, but increasing SW flow aloft may bring PWATs around 2 inches. Surface instability is still a main point of uncertainty, as was the case with event on Saturday, due to potential of clouds and difficulty predicting the timing of the warm front/surface heating at this time frame. Low to mid level flow with potential of around 40 kt ot 0-6 km shear may be present, which may help with storm organization if instability is sufficient. Larger scale forcing is also quite strong for this time of year. The warm front should eventually push north and east of the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. The trailing cold front will slowly approach Tuesday night and then move through Wednesday. The mid-upper level trough axis should remain to the west for much of Wednesday, so there could be at least some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms at times. The trough axis lifts to the north and east Wednesday night, bringing an end to the chances for precip. The bottom line here is that showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur at some point on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, and then again for a portion of Wednesday. SPC has placed the western half of the area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms and the eastern half in a marginal risk for Tuesday. WPC has continued to place the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall both Tuesday and Wednesday. The exact timing and location of potential impacts, if any, will be fine tuned over the coming days. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mean troughing should persist aloft Thursday into Friday, potentially linger near the east coast next Saturday. The main axis of moisture is expected to remain well offshore allowing high pressure to build over the northeast. This will lead to a period of dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front pushes through the terminals early this morning with high pressure building in from the northwest today. Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period, except some MVFR or lower conditions will be likely at KGON until 11z or so. W/SW winds continue to back to the W and NW this morning at speeds of 10-15kt. NW flow 10-15kt persists today with some gusts to near 20kt. Winds diminish this evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be occasional at times. Gusts may also occasionally be higher than forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday night and Monday: Mainly VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms. Thursday: Late day MVFR possible in showers && .MARINE... SCA conditions will continue on the ocean east of Fire Island inlet through noon today mainly due to lingering 5 ft seas. Conditions will then remain tranquil through Monday night as high pressure builds over the waters. The next chance for SCA conditions will be late Tuesday through Wednesday. These conditions may linger on the ocean into Thursday as elevated says may not fully subside below 5 ft until Thursday night. Rip Currents: The rip current risk is moderate through this evening with lingering 4-5 ft swells this morning, diminishing to 3-4 ft at 6-7s. The rip current risk is low on Monday with a light S-SE flow developing in the afternoon and 2-3 ft seas at 6-7s. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS AVIATION...BC MARINE...DS |
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NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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