What's Happening In Newington

803
FXUS61 KOKX 171120
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
720 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A High Risk for Rip Currents has been issued for Thursday. The Slight
Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday has been expanded to
include the entire area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous rip currents expected Thursday.

2) Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

3) Low pressure may produce locally heavy rain as well as
thunderstorms around the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Strong onshore flow to around 30kt will create rough surf and
dangerous rip currents on Thu. Breaking waves in the 4-6ft range
are likely, despite a lack of long period swell. A high rip
current risk statement has been issued.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A 140+ kt h3 jet over wrn Canada will reach the ern Great Lakes on
Thu, albeit with slightly weaker flow of around 120kt. Locally, this
will allow a strong mid lvl jet to set up across the area, resulting
in 0-6km bulk shear of around 70kt. Despite the strong wind
fields, there does remain some uncertainty wrt to the severe
threat due to the potential lack of instability for much of the
area as sly flow cranks off the ocean.

In this scenario, the extreme swrn portion of the cwa could see the
greatest severe threat where temps will be 10-15 degrees warmer than
most of the area, yielding SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg. If tstms do
initiate in this zone, the threat appears to be damaging winds and
an isold small spinup. Elsewhere, with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg but a
more stable marine influenced bl in place, the main threat appears
to be isold-sct damaging winds punching thru the stable layer at
times.

Since the event is still more than a day out, the exact details are
likely to change. However, the key takeaway is that the winds will
be there for severe, it will just depend on how the instability
shapes up.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The modeling suggests low pres developing east of the Rockies this
weekend will track across the country and bring rain to the area
sometime during the beginning of next week. Timing right now is as
early as Sun ngt, and as late as Mon ngt. Signal is reflected in the
NBM pops which are 60 percent even this far out.

Convection embedded in this sys will enhance rainfall rates, and the
GFS already suggests over an inch in a swath along and north of the
low track. Would expect some higher amounts than this due to the
convective component. There may also be a severe risk in the warm
sector, although it gets tricky once again locally with any onshore
flow limiting instability.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front approaches the terminals today, gradually lifting
to the north tonight into Thursday morning.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. A few showers are possible
this afternoon from the NYC metro terminals on NW. Brief MVFR
cannot be ruled out. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible,
but confidence is too low to include in the TAF.

There is a chance for IFR-MVFR conditions late tonight/early
Thursday morning. Another round of showers is also expected
Thursday morning with an isolated thunderstorm possible.

Mainly light and/or variable flow early this morning. Winds become
SE after 12-14z and gradually increase through the day. Speeds
10-15 kt, strongest at coastal terminals. An occasional gust up
to 20 kt possible at NYC terminals. Winds settle to 10 kt or
less tonight before increasing around day break Thursday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated thunderstorm possible 18z-00z and then again Thursday
morning, but confidence too low to include in the TAF at this
time.

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible this afternoon and early
evening.

Uncertainty with flight categories late tonight and early
Thursday. Conditions could remain VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Showers and a few thunderstorms possible. Chance of MVFR
or IFR conditions. SW winds around 15 kt with gusts 25-30 kt,
strongest near the coast. Winds and gusts weaken in the evening.
gusts near 25-30kt day into early eve, then gusts near 20kt.

Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 20 kt.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt Saturday and 20 kt
on Sunday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas blw sca lvls today, then S winds pick of tngt with
sca conditions developing on Thu. An advy has been issued for all
waters Thu and Thu ngt, although the peak winds appear to be during
the day on Thu. There is a chance for winds to reach mrgnl gale
force, especially on the ocean, but confidence is too low attm. In
addition, tstms will be possible on Thu and any of these will be
capable of producing winds over 35kt.

W winds are modeled to stay blw sca lvls on Fri, although seas on
the ocean may linger aoa 5 ft. Similar conditions on Sat, but even
more mrgnl, then winds and seas blw sca lvls all waters for Sun.

Low pres may impact the waters on Mon, with sca conditions possible.

Rip Currents:

Today, the rip current risk is moderate due to SE flow increasing to
around 10kt and waves around 2 ft.

For Thursday, the rip current risk is high with strong S winds and
waves around 4-6 ft.

For Friday, the rip current risk is moderate to high with lingering
swell and gusty W winds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC