What's Happening In Newington

338
FXUS61 KOKX 280235
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1035 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased temperatures and heat index values for late week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic light showers, mainly close to the coast, tonight.


2) High heat and humidity becoming increasingly likely from mid to
late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A passing mid level shortwave and right rear quad of an upper
jet streak aloft support continued chances of mainly light
showers near the coast. Otherwise, overcast conditions will
continue tonight. Some patchy fog is possible, especially for
outlying areas.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A highly anomalous amplified upper flow will be featured across
the country from mid to late week, with a trough out west and a
a high centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. H5 heights
in the East will be close to 596 dm, about 2 SD above normal,
and H8 temps in the 12Z GFS are even warmer, approaching 24-25C
each late afternoon. With a little downslope warming via NW flow
aloft and light W-NW sfc flow temps are likely to surpass 100
in NE NJ on Wed, and over a more widespread area Thu/Fri.
GEFS/EPS ensembles are in full agreement with this, showing
probabilities of max temps 100 or higher at least 50-70% for NE
NJ, the NYC metro area and parts of Long Island Wed-Fri, and as
high as 80% on Thu. NBM 90th percentile max temps were too
extreme to even consider, but blended with raw NBM guidance do
suggest some room for high temps to trend a couple of degrees
even hotter. With dewpoints in the lower 70s in Wed and the
mid/upper 60s Thu/Fri, max heat index values are likely to be
100-105 Wed-Fri across the entire area, and as high as 110
mainly in the urban corridor on Thu. Heat index values are also
unlikely to drop below 80 in NYC and immediate surrounding areas
both Wed night and Thu night, making for very uncomfortable
sleeping conditions and setting up for added daytime heat stress
on Thu/Fri. With these values, extreme heat warnings could be
needed for the urban corridor and the Hudson/CT river valleys on
Wed, for virtually the entire CWA on Thu, and for urban and
coastal sections on Fri.

GFS has backed off on the idea of a back door cold fropa later
in the week, but not the potential for an MCS passing through in
NW flow aloft next weekend. It`s much too early to know if
that will be the case as the ECMWF holds stronger with upper
ridging across the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak low pressure passes south of Long Island tonight. Weak
high pressure to the north will then gradually build towards the
terminals on Sunday.

Predominantly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance for
MVFR ceilings late tonight into a portion of Sunday morning.
There is still uncertainty if these ceilings will materialize,
but have included the potential in TEMPO groups. Conditions
should prevail VFR after 14-15z Sunday.

A few light showers are possible overnight, mainly close to the
coast. Minimal, if any, impacts to ceilings and visibilities
are expected. An isolated shower is also possible inland Sunday
afternoon.

Light and variable winds into early Sunday morning. Light NE
flow develops after 12z, veering to the E and then ESE-SE late
morning into the afternoon. Wind speeds will remain under 10 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Flight category may remain VFR through Sunday morning.

Timing of wind shifts on Sunday may be off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night-Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. S wind gusts 15-20 kt possible in the afternoon
and evening. Isolated shower/thunderstorm possible in the
afternoon/evening.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible near
the coast Wednesday afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on the non
ocean waters through Thu, and through at least early Tue
afternoon on the ocean. Could see some wind gusts approaching
25 kt late day Tue/Wed and seas approaching 5 ft on the ocean in
a S flow.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains low through Monday
with 1-2 ft swell sets with period varying between 5-10 s and
onshore winds at or below 10 kt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 100/1963
KBDR: 95/1963
KNYC: 100/1901
KLGA: 97/2018
KJFK: 102/1963
KISP: 96/1964

July 2:
KEWR: 102/1966
KBDR: 100/1966
KNYC: 100/1966
KLGA: 101/1966
KJFK: 101/1966
KISP: 99/1966

July 3:
KEWR: 105/1966
KBDR: 99/1966
KNYC: 103/1966
KLGA: 107/1966
KJFK: 104/1966
KISP: 104/1966


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 27:
KEWR: 75/1999
KBDR: 73/1953
KNYC: 76/1943
KLGA: 77/1943
KJFK: 73/2003
KISP: 72/2021

July 1:
KEWR: 77/2018
KBDR: 73/2013
KNYC: 79/2018
KLGA: 79/2018
KJFK: 75/1968
KISP: 73/2025

July 2:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 82/1901
KLGA: 78/2002
KJFK: 74/2018
KISP: 74/2014

July 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Goodman