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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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384
FXUS61 KOKX 190647
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
247 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below average temperatures today warm into the weekend.
2) No major storm systems expected in the long term, with just a
couple of minor disturbance Friday night into Saturday morning, and
from Sunday afternoon into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure shifting northeast today will continue to allow
for temperatures remaining below average with highs in the low
to middle 40s.
Temperatures will trend warmer beginning Friday with highs
closer to average. By Saturday and Sunday, highs will be above
average with highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s for western
areas. Temperatures drop once again toward the beginning of next
week.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A couple of weak disturbances embedded in the overall WNW flow
regime aloft will progress through Friday night/Sat morning, and
Sunday afternoon/night. A cold front passing through Sunday night
will return the above normal temperatures of Friday through Sunday
to more seasonal levels. No hazardous weather is expected with these
disturbances, though the GFS does show a later timing of Sunday
night/Monday for the second system.
Another more robust system may impact the area late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period with high pressure in control.
S-SSE winds will continue diminishing this evening with light
to variable winds expected overnight. SE-S winds gradually
increase Thursday morning after 12z, becoming 10 kt or less in
the afternoon. Winds diminish and veer to the SW Thursday
evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds could be a few kt higher at times Thursday noon at KJFK, KLGA,
and KEWR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Night-Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance for MVFR NW of the NYC
metro Thursday night.
Friday Night: Rain likely with MVFR or lower conditions.
Saturday: Rain ends early, becoming VFR. W winds G15-20 kt in the
afternoon.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower with rain in the late
afternoon/evening, possibly mixing with snow at night. W winds G20
kt in the afternoon, becoming NW at night.
Monday: VFR. N winds G20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet conditions should last until Friday night, when some 5-ft
waves could develop on the ocean with 25-30 kt gusts.
Hazardous ocean seas should continue into daytime Sat, then
gradually but briefly subside Sat night. Hazardous ocean seas
could return to the ocean waters on Sunday as SW winds increase
to over 15 kt, but are more likely on all waters Sunday night
into Mon morning as winds shift NW after a cold frontal passage,
with gusts to 25 kt and ocean seas above 5 ft. These conditions
should linger on the ocean into Mon afternoon/night. There is a
chance that any SCA conditions Sunday/Monday could be delayed
by 6-12 hours from the current forecast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MW
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