What's Happening In Newington

402
FXUS61 KOKX 040533
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
133 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes noted at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity continues through Independence
Day.

2) Across the entire area, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are possible each day through Sunday. Highest chances are over
the weekend. Any storm has the potential to produce damaging
wind gusts, particularly this evening and Saturday. Flash
flooding is possible, but limited today through Sunday.
Additional flooding impacts would be possible Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Dangerous heat will into  Saturday. This level of heat can be
deadly for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Impacts
to transportation infrastructure (rail, bridge, road/tarmac),
electrical (high demand) and water systems (open hydrants
reducing water pressure) have been noted with previous heat
events of this severity and duration. On average, heat kills
more people than any other weather related hazard.

No major changes to the heat forecast with the warning in place
through Independence Day. With the high humidity in place, all areas
are forecast to hit heat index values of 105 to 115 this afternoon.
Those numbers drop some on Saturday into roughly the 100-105 range
inland, which technically meets only heat advisory criteria, but
will keep the warning going since this is part of the larger ongoing
heat event, and also to address the cumulative effects of multiple
days of heat. Heat indices for coastal areas are still expected to
reach 105-110.

It still appears that there will still be at least some relief on
Sunday with high temps 85-90 and heat index values from the mid 80s
to lower 90s - short of advisory criteria. Further cooling still
anticipated for Monday with heat indices safely below advisory
criteria.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
SPC had a slight risk for Saturday that includes NE NJ and NYC,
with a marginal risk over the rest of the CWA except for SE CT,
and an afternoon timing.

Primary threat will again be damaging winds. Wet bulb zero
temps at or around 13 kft are typically too high for any large
hail threat to materialize despite ample CAPE progged to be
aloft in the hail growth zone of -10C to -30C. DCAPE values are
once again expected to be high which helps to enhance
downdrafts.

While storms should be progressive Saturday, can`t rule out the
heaviest ones from dropping a fast inch of rain. Additional
chances for showers and tstms for Sunday afternoon with a weak
wave of low pressure coming in from the west, and could last
into Monday night or Tuesday morning with another approaching
wave. Areal QPF of a half to an inch and a half is anticipated
from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night, with the higher
amounts generally over the western half of the forecast area.
Only a marginal risk of flash flooding Saturday afternoon and
night for NYC metro and NE NJ. Then perhaps another inch to 2
inches of rainfall could occur Monday through Tuesday. Difficult
at this point to determine the timing during the period of
Sunday afternoon through Tuesday of the greatest chances of
flooding impacts due to guidance discrepancies. With that said,
there is some suggestion that the heaviest rainfall during
Sunday night slides just south of the forecast area, which would
lessen the impact potential. Relatively slow motion of cells
combined with PWATs upward of around 2 inches nevertheless is a
cause of some concern. WPC has a marginal risk of flash flooding
for most of the area Sunday through Monday with a slight risk
banking up against Western Union and Essex Counties.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front over eastern Canada will approach the area today,
moving across the terminals during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

VFR outside of any showers and thunderstorms. There is a
complex of showers and thunderstorms over central PA that will
have to be watched. The complex is gradually weakening a bit,
however, the convective models are not handling this well.
Thus, low confidence at this time and will not mention showers
and thunderstorms in TAFs early this morning. The next best
chance of showers will be with the cold front after 18Z
Saturday. There area some issues with the exact timing of the
cold front so will continue to carry prob30 for the TSRA
until the timing and coverage can be better defined.

A general W flow less than 10 kt tonight (outside of any
convection) tonight. W wind increase to around 10 kt with gusts
up to 20kt. Winds may back more to the SW at the coastal
terminals. The only exception will be at KJFK, where a
southerly flow is possible around or after 19z-20z. Winds look
to be highly variable Saturday evening with the cold front over
the area.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of showers and thunderstorms making into the area
from PA overnight.

Locally higher gusts than what is indicated in the TAFs
possible on Sat with the strongest tstms.

Amendments are likely for the timing of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon and night.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night: Chance of showers and tstms the first half of
the night with MVFR or lower.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Shwrs and tstms possible late in the aftn
and at ngt.

Monday and Tuesday: MVFR or lower with periods of shwrs and
possible tstms. SE flow Mon becoming NW on Tue.

Wednesday: VFR with S flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through
the middle of next week. However, there is a chance of tstm
development thru the period which could result in hazardous
conditions at times, particularly late day/evening Sat. Also, a
few gusts may get close to 25 kt in E flow from Mon afternoon
into Tue, especially on the ocean, with ocean seas up to 4 ft.

Rip Currents...

Lighter winds with a more westerly component and lower swells
will drop the risk to low for Saturday. The low risk continue
into Sunday with an easterly flow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 4:
KEWR: 105/1949
KBDR: 98/1949
KNYC: 102/1949
KLGA: 100/1949
KJFK: 101/2010
KISP: 97/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018

July 4:
KEWR: 81/2002
KBDR: 80/2002
KNYC: 81/2002
KLGA: 82/1999
KJFK: 80/2002
KISP: 76/2002

July 5:
KEWR: 81/1999
KBDR: 74/2018
KNYC: 82/1999
KLGA: 86/1999
KJFK: 80/1999
KISP: 78/1999

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC