What's Happening In Newington

839
FXUS61 KOKX 170821
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
421 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winds advisory extended till 8am for entire area. Otherwise,
improving conditions this morning in wake of strong cold frontal
passage

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong wind gusts will diminish through 8am from west to
east.

2) An unseasonably cold airmass settles into the area for Tuesday
through Thursday.

3) A frontal boundary will move across the region this weekend bring
another chance of precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Intense shortwave pivots into eastern Ontario/western Quebec
this morning with strong cold front pushing east of the local
area by 4am.

Numerous peak wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph experienced across the
NYC/NJ metro, Lower Hudson Valley, Long Island and coastal CT
from a combination of synoptic and convective forcing overnight.
The top gusts were 71 mph measured at KEWR and 72 mph at KJFK.

Westerly winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph in the wake of the front
will gradually subside to 35 mph through the morning, but it
may take till after daybreak. The wind advisory has been
extended til 8am based on current and upstream winds mixing to
top of mixed layer in strong caa regime, with that potential
continuing till around daybreak.

These winds are ushering in a drier and unseasonably cooler
airmass this morning, with temps dropping into the 30s, and
windchills in the teens and 20s for the morning commute.

In addition, generally between 1/2 to 1 1/2" of rainfall, with
locally in excess of 2" of rain fell over the last 24 hours. The
flood watch for S CT has been discontinued with rainfall coming
to an end, and no additional flooding expected.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Anomalously deep polar trough across the Ohio Valley this morning,
shears NE through the region thru tonight, with mean troughing
continuing through the week. At the surface, intense low pressure
moves north through Quebec with polar high pressure sinking into the
southern US today and then gradually retreating up the eastern
seaboard through mid week.

Gusty NW winds of 15-25G30-35 mph through Tuesday will diminish
Tuesday Night, but no before ushering in temps Tuesday through
Wednesday night running about 10 degrees below normal for mid-March.
Windchills in the 30s Tue and Wed and into the teens Tue Night.
Gradual moderation for the end of the week, with temps
returning toward normal Thursday, and perhaps slightly above
normal by Friday ahead of approaching frontal system.

Key Message 3...

A series of frontal systems are likely to approach Friday and
move across the region through this weekend. There remains
inherent timing issues with exactly when the front moves across
the area. Expect at least some chance POPs this weekend, with
rain across the southern half of the CWA and some light snow or
a rain/snow across the northern half as the fronts moves
through.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in through the TAF period.

VFR through the TAF period with possible brief MVFR cigs prior
to 12Z. Westerly gusts to 40 kt thru early AM push, then mostly
25-30kt through this afternoon. Winds/gusts diminish this
evening with winds veering more WNW.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts 35-40 kt possible before 12z, MVFR cigs possible before
12z, otherwise no unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Friday-Friday night: VFR during the day, with possible sub VFR in
SHRA at night.

Saturday: Sub VFR and SHRA possible, mainly in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly gales behind the cold front passage will gradually
subside to SCA through this morning. SCA gusts likely on all
water through today, lingering into tonight for the ocean
waters. Ocean seas, mainly in southerly swells, will be slow to
subside below SCA through Wednesday AM.

Sub-SCA conditions then expected for midweek as high pressure
builds over the waters.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...NV