What's Happening In Newington

788
FXUS61 KOKX 291458
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1058 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Warnings have been issued for easternmost coastal waters
(the eastern sound, eastern bays, and ocean waters south of the
South Fork of Long Island out to 60 NM).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler beginning this weekend, with multiple disturbances
dropping through New England this weekend into early next week.

2) A moderate rip current risk continues at the ocean beaches
through Saturday. Some isolated minor coastal flooding may also
be possible with the evening high tides for mainly Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A potent upper level closed low diving SE into the mean
longwave trough over eastern Canada and off the New England
Coast will drive a strong cold front through late Friday night.
It will be noticeably cooler on Sat with high temperatures only
reaching the upper 60s for much of the area and possibly not
getting out of the 50s over interior SE CT. A cool night will
follow, with some lows in the 40s, and the lower 50s in NYC.
Lows in the upper 30s are possible in spots well inland and in
the Long Island Pine Barrens region. Temperatures will be within
a few degrees of record lows Sunday morning at LGA and JFK.

Into the start of meteorological summer, models continue to
advertise yet another shortwave disturbance dropping south into
New England in the cyclonic flow early next week, reinforcing
lower heights, before potentially cutting off into midweek. The
GFS/GEFS are most pronounced with this solution, keeping a
meandering upper low nearby, with conditions remaining a bit
cooler and more unsettled. EPS and GEPS further south or east
with less influence locally.

For now, periodic diurnal chances for showers and thunderstorms
persist at least Monday and Tuesday afternoons, with temperatures
likely hanging near normal for early June in the lower/mid 70s.
With a variety of possible solutions, continued to follow a
blended approach with this update to account for uncertainty.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A moderate rip current risk continues through Saturday with 2-4
ft swells at 5-8 sec periods. Water levels will be on the rise
with the upcoming full moon, with some tidal piling also
possible from offshore low pressure despite offshore flow.

Some spotty minor coastal flooding may also be possible along
the tidal waterways of NE NJ and along the south shore back bays
of Nassau with the evening high tides from Friday through Sunday
per bias-corrected blend of ETSS/STOFS/NYHOPS forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains west of the region today. A cold front
approaches from the north this afternoon and moves across
the terminals tonight.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. A few rain showers possible
with the front after 00Z, especially for eastern terminals,
KGON, KISP, and KBDR, though can`t be ruled out elsewhere. Cigs
could briefly fall to MVFR behind the fropa Saturday morning,
especially at KGON.

NW or WNW flow up to 10 kt this morning, backing more W or SW
into early afternoon, with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt. Speeds increase further toward and after 6Z Sat,
veering NW with gusts up to 30 kt developing.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR cigs possible Saturday AM.

Peak gusts to 30 kt possible this afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt
possible Saturday morning and afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW-N wind gusts 25-30kt. Gusts diminish
Saturday night.

Sunday: VFR. Some SW wind gusts 15-20 kt in afternoon into early
eve.

Monday and Tuesday: Chance of MVFR in showers. Slight chance of
a thunderstorm mid afternoon into early eve.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions remain below SCA thresholds on all waters through
Friday. Conditions on the ocean get marginally close for SCA
Friday night and by late Friday night, all the waters could
potentially have SCA level gusts.

A tight pressure gradient on the back side of low pressure
passing E of New England will generate strong wind gusts. SCAs
issued for all waters for late tonight as gusts 25-30 kt become
likely. SCAs step up to Gale Warnings for the ocean E of
Moriches Inlet starting Sat morning where gusts up to 35 kt are
likely, with seas building to 7-11 ft. Gale Warnings also issued
for the eastern sound, Peconic Bay and Gardiner`s Bay as gusts
to 35 kt looks likely there as well Saturday morning. For all
other waters, SCAs continue into Saturday afternoon and
evening. Near shore ocean seas should also build to at least 5-8
ft during this time mainly E of Fire Island Inlet.

Seas may also approach 5 ft on the ocean waters from Fire
Island inlet to Montauk Point late Sunday night and then again
Tuesday night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-
     332-340.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-340-
     350-380.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ335-338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JP