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327
FXUS61 KOKX 050838
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
338 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably mild and humid today through Friday.

2) Wet weather makes a return, with a period of steadier rain,
possibly heavy at times across eastern sections on Friday.

3) Drier and cooler air returns during the weekend into early next
week, but temperatures will remain slightly above average for early
November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An unseasonably warm and humid air mass is in place. Dewpoint
readings are mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s, which is
type of humidity we typically see much earlier in the fall or
during late summer. A long S to SSW fetch is what is driving the
current sensible weather for the area with anomalous dew point
values working in today into tonight. Dew point readings should
manage to get into the lower and middle 60s by this afternoon
across the majority of the area. Temperatures will average a
good 10 degrees or so above normal for this time of year,
despite cloud cover. Temperatures tonight will only fall back to
around 60 in most places which will be a good 15 to 20 degrees
above normal. Many places will get close to just touch record
high minimum temperatures for tonight. See Climate section down
below for info on daily records.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A long S to SSW fetch is what is driving the current sensible
weather for the area with anomalous PWAT values working in later
today into tonight. Some fog and low stratus should lift today
somewhat, however mainly overcast skies will remain for much of the
day and into tonight. Shortwave energy rides up to the northwest
today, followed by more shortwave energy and warm advection later
tonight into Friday morning. The first shortwave should not bring
much if any wet weather to the region as the shower activity is
expected to stay primarily to the north and northwest initially.
However, as a cold front approaches from the west later today mid
level forcing begins to increase. The chances of shower activity
increase mainly from the metro and north and west during the
afternoon. Further east much, if not all of the shower activity will
hold off until late tonight. NWP and AI guidance does appear to be
coming into better agreement, although it has taken some time for
this agreement among the guidance to take place. The region appears
to get into good upper level divergence with two favorable upper jet
features. Also the thermal gradient tightens, especially around the
850 mb level towards Friday morning. As thermal advection increases
at and just above this level look for more widespread and steady
rain to develop during Friday morning from the metro and east, and
late tonight across western portions of the area. During Friday the
front slows but is forecast to eventually move slowly to the east
towards evening. This movement should have the best forcing and lift
across the eastern third of the region, mainly across Central and
Eastern LI, and Central and Eastern So. CT.  Model consensus has
about an inch, to as much as 2 and a quarter inches across this
portion of the area, with closer to a half inch or thereabouts for
the NYC metro and less further west. However, confidence isn`t the
greatest even though we are in the short range as the axis of
heavier rain could easily shift further east or west. A shift west
would bring an inch plus amounts into the metro, although that is
not the consensus of the guidance at this time. Thus, trends will be
watched carefully over subsequent model forecast cycles. The Weather
Prediction Center does have eastern portions of the area under a
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall, with a Slight Risk to our
northeast up into portions of RI and SE MA. The risk of flooding
from rainfall appears limited at this time as the rain is expected
to fall over several hours with instability limited to a shallow
layer of the column. Thus, with this reasoning have only slight chance
of thunder for Friday into Friday evening for mainly eastern sections.
Half inch hourly rainfall amounts are possible for the eastern third
of the area, with less consistent and overall lighter rain further
west across the area.

Any meaningful rain will taper towards midnight Friday night, with
any lingering shower activity expected to move northeast of the area
by Saturday morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Less humid air and cooler conditions works in from the west
behind a cold front towards early Saturday morning as the winds
become more NW and W. Despite temperatures being cooler, overall
temperatures should still remain somewhat above normal for
early November to begin the weekend. A series or weak cold
fronts / sfc troughs pivot through for late in the weekend into
early Monday morning. This should get temperatures a touch
cooler into Sunday and Monday, but overall temperatures are
likely to remain slightly above average for early November with
daytime highs around 60, and night time minimums on either side
of 40.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will progress
slowly eastward today as a weak front approaches from the west.

Latest satellite imagery and observations support widespread IFR
and local LIFR conditions in and around the coastal terminals.
This should expand overnight into the Lower Hudson Valley.
The forecast then leans toward improvement to mainly MVFR
conditions as the morning progresses, however, it is plausible
for VFR conditions to be more prevalent this afternoon. KGON on
the other hand could remain IFR.

Showers will primarily impact areas north and west of the NYC
terminals during the morning hours, becoming more scattered in
the afternoon. A more organized rainfall event is on tap for
late to night into Friday with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions.

Winds will be S-SW less than 10 kt overnight, strongest at the
coast, then increasing to around 10kt G15-20kt today.
Should there be more cloud cover and lower ceilings, gusts may
be more occasional or may not occur at all.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There is some uncertainty on timing of improvement today to
MVFR, possibly VFR for a time.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late tonight: MVFR/IFR in showers except at KSWF.

Friday: MVFR/IFR in showers. Slight chance of thunder mainly at
the Long Island/CT terminals. Cond improving to VFR
after midnight.

Saturday: Chance of afternoon showers with MVFR cond at
KSWF/KBDR/KGON.

Saturday night: Chance of mainly evening showers with MVFR cond
at KSWF/KBDR/KGON. NW winds G15-20kt.

Sunday and Monday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
An increasing long S-SW fetch / flow ahead of an approaching
cold front develops today and will remain in place through
tonight. This will lead to small craft conditions with seas of
mainly 4 to 5 ft, and gusts to 25 kt on the ocean waters this
afternoon and through at least the evening. Small craft, or at
least marginal small craft conditions are expected to linger for
much of tonight and may linger into a good portion of Friday on
the eastern ocean waters. Conditions should then relax some with
sub advisory conditions return for a short while to begin the
weekend Friday night into Saturday.

Seas begin to climb late Saturday, with small craft conditions
return with 5 to 7 ft seas on the ocean by early Sunday morning.
Marginal small craft conditions develop for the non-ocean
waters late Saturday night into Sunday. 5 ft seas are likely to
linger on the ocean waters into early next week with small craft
gusts likely on most of the non-ocean waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

November 5:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 78/1961
KLGA: 75/2022
KJFK: 75/1975
KISP: 74/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5:
KEWR: 61/2022
KBDR: 59/1961
KNYC: 64/2022
KLGA: 63/2022
KJFK: 60/2022
KISP: 62/2022

November 6:
KEWR: 66/2022
KBDR: 62/2024
KNYC: 66/2022
KLGA: 65/2024
KJFK: 64/2022
KISP: 65/2022


Record Precipitation:

November 6:
KEWR: 2.12/1911
KBDR: 0.54/2018
KNYC: 1.47/1911
KLGA: 0.96/1963
KJFK: 1.42/1963
KISP: 0.71/1963

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JE