What's Happening In Newington

886
FXUS61 KOKX 180857
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snowfall totals have increased slightly across the area.

The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include Orange and
western Passaic Counties. The end times of the Advisories have also
been extended to end later tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Areas of black ice have developed and may lead to hazardous
travel conditions this morning.

2.) A coastal storm will bring snow to the area today. Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect for the entire area this
morning through tonight. Widespread 3 to 5 inches is expected.

3.) Below normal temperatures expected Monday through next
weekend, with the coldest period being Monday through Tuesday
night. Wind chill values Monday and Tuesday night will be in the
single digits for most, below zero for parts of the interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The combination of (1) Residual moisture from yesterday`s
rain/snow that fell,(2) areas of developing fog and (3)
temperatures below freezing has resulted in some areas of black
ice. Any black ice that forms could lead to hazardous travel
conditions. Will continue to cover this threat in an SPS.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A shortwave embedded in the larger deep upper level trough over
the eastern US is currently digging through the southern Plains
as seen on current Water Vapor satellite imagery. This will aid
in surface low development off the southeast coast. This low
will lift and pass southeast of the area as it strengthens.

The snow that is expected today will come in two main rounds.
The first round will be earlier this morning and is associated
with an approaching jet. The bulk of this round will fall north
and west of NYC. While precipitation is still expected through
the day there will be a lull period, mainly during the
afternoon, where precipitation will likely be lighter. Due to
marginal surface temperatures along the coast, this may fall as
a rain/snow mix with little to no accumulation there. The second
round of snow heavier snow will likely not start until the later
afternoon when lift increases again as the low passes offshore.
Even if surface temperatures are still marginal in coastal
areas, snowfall rates will likely be able to overcome this.

The temperature trend will need to be watched today. We are
currently running a bit below the forecast. If this trend
continues, the rain/snow mix may be less of a concern for
coastal areas and they may be able to accumulate more than
currently forecast.

While there were no major changes in the guidance with the
latest 00z runs, a subtle increase and northwest shift of QPF
was enough to get Advisory level snow for Orange and western
Passaic counties.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Cold weather will remain across the region next week, with,
temperatures remaining below normal much of the time. The
coldest period will be Monday night through Tuesday night as
Canadian cold air moves into the region behind a cold frontal
passage Monday night. Temperatures during this period will be as
much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Despite the anomalously
cold air no records are expected to be set. And with windy
conditions Monday into Tuesday, wind chill values will remain
higher than cold weather advisory criteria. For Wednesday and
Thursday, temperatures will be near normal to near 5 degrees
below normal. Another shot of cold air moves in for Friday and
Saturday, with temperatures both days remaining right around or
below the freezing mark. There will be minimal chances of light
snow and/or light rain Thursday into Friday as weak low pressure
systems pass near the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will develop along the Southeast coast and
track northeastward passing south and east of the terminals
today and tonight.

A mix of VFR and MVFR at most of the terminals early this
morning, with some isolated IFR or lower with freezing fog being
reported across much of the region. Snow should arrive between
11Z-13Z at most terminals, and only a little later at KGON, with
MVFR initially, then IFR at most terminals except KSWF which
should remain LIFR. KISP likely to see a rain/snow mix for a
time this afternoon. Snow may pick up in intensity after
22Z-23Z, with occasionally moderate snow and LIFR vsby.

Mostly light/variable flow overnight should become light E-NE early
this morning, backing N-NE during the afternoon.

Snow accumulations should generally be 2-5 inches.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled AMD possible to fine tune arrival of snow.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night: Conditions gradually improving to MVFR/VFR from
west to east at most terminals. Snow with IFR cond should hang on at
KGON until 08Z-09Z.

Monday: VFR. WSW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR. SW-S winds G15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of light snow, maybe
snow/rain along the coast, with MVFR or lower cond. SW-W winds
G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory continues on the central and eastern
Ocean zone for lingering 5 ft seas today.

The Advisory gets expanded to include the western ocean zone on
Monday when seas and winds increase. There is potential for the
Advisory to get expanded to the non ocean waters, but right now
forecast wind gusts are too marginal.

Advisories will likely need to be extended beyond Monday as
winds come back up on Tuesday and elevated seas linger for
several days.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to midnight EST
     tonight for CTZ005-009.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Monday for CTZ006>008-010>012.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to midnight EST
     tonight for NYZ067>075-176>179.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Monday for NYZ078>081.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to midnight EST
     tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BC/Goodman
MARINE...JT