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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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452 FXUS61 KOKX 111554 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1154 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Showers have developed across portions of northern NJ/NYC/western Long Island and will push southeast into this afternoon. Minor/nuisance flooding can`t be ruled out in urban/poor drainage areas, although showers should be progressive enough to mitigate the flood potential. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers are likely in northern NJ/NYC/western Long Island into this afternoon. Localized heavy downpours are possible. 2) Dry and seasonably warm weather expected Sunday into Monday before hot and humid conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday. 3) Brief minor tidal flooding likely this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered showers have developed to the north of a frontal boundary that is to the south of the local area. Expect this activity to gradually push south/southeast away from northern NJ/NYC/western Long Island into this afternoon with rainfall chances diminishing by no later mid to late afternoon. From there, any additional showers will likely be confined to the Hudson Valley. Isolated embedded thunder can`t be ruled out, but the better instability is closer to the frontal boundary across the southern part of the area. Despite the front being to the south of the area, there is still a moisture axis with PWAT values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches across the southern portion of the area so pockets of moderate rain are possible. Storm motion is relatively progressive and to the southeast, however mean flow may be just parallel enough to the moisture axis/frontal boundary to support training and possibly some nuisance flooding/ponding in urban/poor drainage areas. Fortunately, it appears that storm motion is southerly enough to mitigate the training/flood risk. The lack of instability will also limit rainfall rates and thunder potential. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Canadian high pressure will build southeast into the region tonight through Monday. This will result in dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures with comfortable humidity values. Heat and humidity will begin to build as an upper ridge builds in from the west Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Highs will be in the 90s both days with heat index values possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria on Wednesday, although there is some uncertainty in dew points/mixing depth (lower dew points and more mixing could help limit heat index values). The ridge will likely begin to break down as an upper trough pushes southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday, which will allow the heat and humidity to decrease late in the week. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The combination of high astronomical tides due to the upcoming new moon on July 14 and a minor of push of water towards the coastline in an easterly flow Saturday and Sunday will bring water levels in some locations to around or just above minor coastal flood benchmarks. The locations that look most susceptible at this time are the more vulnerable locales of coastal Fairfield and southern Nassau counties. A coastal flood statement has been issued for these locations. The threat may linger into early next week as we approach the new moon, however, much of the guidance keeps water levels just below as winds become southerly. This will have to be watched though as we could still skirt near minor flood thresholds. Any flooding at this time looks to be brief and minor. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front south of the area this morning will continue its southward push into the Mid Atlantic states today, while high pressure gradually build in from the northwest through Sunday. This will be a mainly VFR forecast outside of a chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Showers have begun to develop, and these storms are mainly impacting the NYC/NJ and Long Island terminals. The best timing for these showers will be through about 18-20z. as some upper jet dynamics pass through the area. The airmass will be gradually drying out from north to south today which will lessen the chances heading into the afternoon. N/NE winds 5-10kt will gradually veer to the E/ESE by afternoon. Winds will then diminish this evening and back around to the NE. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2 hours. Amendments may be needed for the timing and coverage of any showers. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday through Wednesday: VFR expected. Tue and Wed SW-WSW wind G15-20kt && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue today, with high pressure building towards the waters. Potential for a brief period of marginal SCA seas tonight into Sunday AM in response to 15G20kt easterly flow this afternoon/evening between developing offshore low and building high. Otherwise Sub-SCA expected through early next week as high pressure remains in control. Rip Currents: Low to locally moderate rip risk (E to W longshore current dominant) for today and Sunday with 1-2 ft S/SE swells, and 3 ft E wind waves. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AM/DW/MW AVIATION...BC MARINE...NV/MW |
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