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577
FXUS61 KOKX 281939
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
339 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time.

Updated Aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry, tranquil conditions persist through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The driest stretch of the year so far likely continues through
at least the end of the week.

Upper level ridging spans much of the Eastern US, with a nearby
surface high sliding off the New England coast today. Mid and
high clouds will continue to stream overhead through this
evening as a weak shortwave rides over the ridge in place.
Temperatures will be milder than previous nights, generally
falling back into the 40s and 50s.

SW flow develops as the high slips offshore and helps to usher
in a bit milder air mass. H925 temps climb into the mid teens
on Thursday with deep W/SW flow. With better mixing, this
should increase afternoon temperatures a good 5 degrees compared
to today, with forecast highs around 70 in the NYC metro, and
mid to upper 60s elsewhere.

A moisture-starved cold front moves through Friday. Cloud cover
increases Friday morning ahead of the boundary, but conditions
remain dry and skies clear by mid afternoon once it passes
through. Behind the fropa, dry, cooler conditions settle in
for the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday fall back from their
peak Thu/Fri, with highs back in the upper 50s and low 60s and
evening temperatures into the 40s and upper 30s outside of NYC.

Global guidance has trended drier early next week, with high
pressure likely remaining in place. Conditions may begin to
turn more unsettled by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong high pressure remains near the area terminals through the
TAF period.

VFR.

Any remaining light NE-E winds will eventually become SE-S 5-10
kt late this afternoon. Light and variable winds expected once
again this evening and overnight. Winds become more SW Thursday
morning remaining at or below 10kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind direction shifts may +/- an hour from TAFs.


.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday through Saturday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible Fri
afternoon.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Monday: Manly VFR. Low chance of a shower with lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the coastal waters remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through at least Thursday night.

A cold frontal passage on Friday will lead to an increase in NW
winds by late day, with gusts near 25 kt possible on the ocean for a
brief period into Friday night. Otherwise, conditions remain
sub SCA through at least the weekend with high pressure building
in from the Great Lakes.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DR