What's Happening In Newington

133
FXUS61 KOKX 292309
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
609 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for overnight into early
Friday morning. This has been expanded to include the entire
area. Probabilities for accumulating snow Sunday continue
decreasing with the highest chance across eastern Long Island
and southeast Connecticut.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frigid conditions continue through Saturday. A Cold Weather
Advisory is in place area-wide overnight. Another Cold Weather
Advisory is possible Friday.

2) A strong storm over the western Atlantic passes well offshore
Sunday. Probabilities for accumulating snow continue decreasing on
Sunday with the highest chance across eastern Long Island and
southeast Connecticut.

3) Strong, gusty winds and minor coastal flooding/minor shoreline
impacts remain possible on Sunday due to the offshore storm
system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Frigid conditions remain firmly in place into Saturday under
mainly zonal flow through this period.

Temperatures have remained warmer than forecast over the past
two nights, especially across NYC metro locations. Despite this,
Cold Weather Advisory criteria is still expected to be met
overnight with a Cold Weather Advisory in place area-wide.
Lows will be in the single digits across the area. Some below
zero temps are possible in far interior locations. This brings
wind chills between -5 and -10 across coastal section with
interior locations between -10 and -20.

Unseasonably cold weather remains in place through Friday night
with additional Cold Weather Advisory issuances possible.
Little to no relief during the daytime as afternoon highs Fri
are in the middle teens and in the low 20s Sat afternoon.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The guidance is beginning to come into much better agreement
over the last 24 hours regarding accumulating snow potential on
Sunday. The guidance overall is narrowing down the uncertainty
with the track and intensity of the western Atlantic low
pressure with confidence increasing that the low will pass close
to 300 miles southeast of the Long Island coast on Sunday.

The uncertainty revolves around how large the precipitation shield
will end up on the NW side of the storm. Trends are leaning to a
scenario where eastern portions of the area are grazed by light
precipitation. All signals are pointing towards the most organized
thermal forcing remaining well to the south and east with any precip
over the area associated with lift from a departing polar jet streak
over Northern New England and Southeast Canada. In fact, there is a
growing amount of deterministic and ensemble members that keep the
area completely dry on Sunday. Have not gone this route just yet,
but have trended PoPs down just a bit and have limited snowfall
accumulation much lower than both the means of NBMv4.3 and NBMv5.0.
The highest chance for accumulating snow resides across eastern Long
Island and southeast Connecticut.

The latest snowfall forecast is in collaboration with WPC and
neighboring offices which yields little to no snow across the
interior, a dusting to under an inch around the NYC metro to 1-2
inches across central/eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut.
The probability for an advisory level snowfall (at least 3 inches)
has decreased significantly over the last 24 hours, but still cannot
be completely ruled out towards the twin forks of Long Island if
there is a slight amplification with the modeled jet streak,
allowing slightly more snow to reach the east end.

The evolution of this system differs from previous storms that have
trended NW closer in time this season. The upper low associated with
the intense offshore storm is expected to pass off the
Southeast/Middle Atlantic coast with the deepening process occurring
off NC/VA coast. This will prevent warm advection processes from
working there way up the coast into the northeast. In previous
events, warm advection was a big factor for the NW trend. The main
aspect of this event will be with the jet amplification to our north
and east. If there are more amplified jet trends, then the snow
shield could move a bit further NW than currently expected. If it
trends flatter, then there would be a higher likelihood of little to
no snow occurring across the entire area. It should also be noted
that even if there is a trend to a more amplified jet, the snow
would still end up light with amounts more than likely remaining
below Advisory level from the NYC metro on NW. It would only
increase the chance of advisory level snowfall out east.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The western Atlantic storm system is progged to deepen rapidly
this weekend. Models are converging on the low passing well
offshore, but there will still be a strong pressure gradient
over the region. There is potential for sustained N winds 15-25
mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Gusts could approach 45 mph,
especially across Long Island and coastal Connecticut, so do not
want to completely rule out the potential for an Advisory (at
least 45 mph gusts). Winds will likely be lower heading further
inland, especially NW of the NYC metro. Wind speeds and gusts
will continue to be refined over the next few days.

Minor coastal flooding and minor shoreline impacts are possible
Sunday/Sunday night. A full moon occurs on Sunday coinciding
with when the storm system is at its strongest over the western
Atlantic. The strong offshore flow will limit the surge from the
offshore storm. There is a chance for minor coastal flooding
during times of high tide on Sunday/Sunday night, especially for
the south shore back bays and potentially western Great South
Bay. Other coastal locations may just see water levels touch
minor benchmarks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in through early Friday and then
remains in place through Friday night.

VFR.

NW winds, with wind direction 290 to 310 through the TAF
period, winds may be more 290 during Friday. Wind speeds 10-15kt
through the overnight. Winds speeds around 15kt with gusts
developing 14Z to 16Z 20-25kt Friday. Gusts end 22Z to 00Z.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts develop Friday morning, 14Z to 16Z, 20-25kt. Wind
direction at times may be around 300 during the day Friday.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. There is a chance for some
MVFR or lower conditions along with a chance of snow, mainly
late night Saturday into Sunday. Best chance will be across the
terminals east of NYC. Northerly wind gusts increasing at night
to 20-25 kt, then 30-35 kt on Sunday. There is low confidence at
this time on the magnitude of winds and snow.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR with NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal small craft conditions take place tonight into Friday
on ocean waters with near 25 kt gusts and 4-5 ft waves with a
SCA in place for this. A Freezing Spray Advisory is also in
place for much of this same period on ocean waters for moderate
accumulation of freezing spray.

Sub Advisory conditions are then expected Friday night into
Saturday. Conditions rapidly deteriorate with increase waves and
winds Saturday night due to a passing low offshore.

A gale watch has been issued Saturday night beginning at
midnight and runs through 6pm Sunday. There is also a low chance
for storm force wind gusts on the ocean east of Fire Island
Inlet. However, trends have been gradually lowering wind gusts
over the last several cycles so elected to hold off on the
issuance of a storm watch. It is possible that a storm watch may
be needed in subsequent forecasts. Otherwise, lingering gales
are possible on the ocean Sunday night, but the overall trend is
for conditions to return to SCA levels Monday and Tuesday,
mainly on the ocean.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Friday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR/DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/DS