What's Happening In Newington

827
FXUS61 KOKX 011908
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
308 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk across
more of the local area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Record to near record dangerous heat is expected through
Friday and will likely continue on Independence Day, with
little overnight relief. This level of heat can be deadly for
those without adequate cooling and hydration. Impacts to
transportation infrastructure and electrical and water systems
are also possible.

2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
nearly each day through the weekend. Any thunderstorm has the
potential to be strong to severe.

3) There is a high risk of rip currents through Thursday. (See
marine section for discussion).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An anomalously strong ridge continues to build in. The ridge
eventually breaks down late this week into the weekend in
response to a closed low developing over eastern Canada. At the
surface, high pressure remains anchored just offshore, with a
surface trough lingering over the area. This pattern will bring
record to near record dangerous heat is expected through Friday
and will likely continue on Independence Day.

This level of heat can be deadly for those without adequate
cooling and hydration. Impacts to transportation (rail, bridge,
road/tarmac) infrastructure and electrical (high demand
electrical) and water systems (open hydrants reducing water
pressure) have been noted with previous heat events of this
severity and duration. On average, heat kills more people than
any other weather-related hazard.

Temps and heat indices have been updated with the lasted data.
High temps are a blend of GFS temps mixed down from h85, the
MET, and the MAV.

No changes to the heat headlines, with the warning in effect
thru Fri, and the watch for Sat. Based on the latest data,
marginal warning numbers (lower 100s) for Sat, with temps
lowering further on Sun. The usual warm spots may still be right
around advisory levels (95) however on Sun. A southeasterly
flow should bring all areas down to around normal levels for
Mon.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Almost the entire area is in a Marginal or Slight Risk for
severe today and tonight. Activity has already been triggered
across Orange county, and particularly north and west of the
fcst area. As this initial convection and sacrificial cu field
helps to eat away at the cap around h7, additional tstms are
possible thru this eve, with residual activity possible
overnight.

Storm motion is modeled around 5 kt to the SE, and with not
enough shear for a good balance, would expect multicellular mode
with outflow boundaries triggering additional convection. The
main severe threat is damaging winds, with DCAPE as high as 2000
J/kg. EL is around 45k ft.

There is also an isolated flash flood threat due to the slow
storm motion and multicellular nature, particularly if storms
develop over more favorable urban or flood prone areas.

Although the main threat period is this aftn and eve, any tstms
that develop late will still be capable of drifting thru the
cwa overnight. Elevated CAPE still presents a severe threat,
albeit lower than this aftn/eve.

Tstm development looks difficult on Thu with the ridge building
in, then chances for development again late Fri. Somewhat
similar to today with mid level NW flow, but with quicker storm
motion around 10-15kt.

Additional chances for tstms over the weekend with heights
beginning to fall. The amount of instability is a bit uncertain,
with the most unstable airmass potentially suppressed to the S,
but coverage may be higher due to the upper level support.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains over the Western Atlantic through midweek.

Mainly VFR. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms may develop
this evening. Confidence remains too low in coverage to include TSRA
in TAF, but have included a VCSH 21-00z for JFK/LGA/EWR/TEB/HPN/SWF.

SW-S flow into the evening, 10-15 kt. Gusts 20-25 kt are possible
this afternoon and early evening, but may be occasional.
Any gusts end around 00z with a light SW flow continuing into
Thursday morning. WSW-W flow 10 kt or less Thursday morning becomes
SW-SSW in the afternoon, especially close to the coast.
Gusts up to 20 kt possible.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for isolated shower/thunderstorms this evening.

Gusts may be occasional this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.Thursday PM: VFR. SW-SSW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible in the
afternoon and evening.

.Friday: Mainly VFR. Isolated shower or thunderstorms with MVFR in
the afternoon and evening. W wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into
evening.

.Saturday-Monday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening with MVFR or lower possible at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight for
the the ocean waters out 20 NM, the South Shore Bays, Peconic
and Gardiners Bays and the eastern LI Sound. A strengthening
S/SW flow will bring 25 to 30 kt gusts and 5 to 6 ft seas for
the ocean waters. Elsewhere, 20 to 25 kt gusts are expected.
Gusts lower overnight but will increase again on Thursday. An
advisory may be needed, mainly on the ocean.

Winds and seas are then expected to remain below SCA levels
Fri-Mon.

Rip Currents...

The High Risk for Rip Currents remains through Thursday.

Rest of today, a S/SW flow around 20 kt combined with the
resulting 5ft 5s period wave component will lead to the high
risk. A similar set up is expected for Thursday with a 15 to 20
kt flow and 4-5 ft 6s swell.

RCMOS showing solid high risk for both days along with local rip
current algorithms showing solid high risk for both days gave
confidence to extend the high risk through Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 102/1901
KBDR: 95/1963
KNYC: 100/1901
KLGA: 97/2018
KJFK: 102/1963
KISP: 96/1964

July 2:
KEWR: 103/1901
KBDR: 100/1966
KNYC: 100/1966
KLGA: 101/1966
KJFK: 101/1966
KISP: 99/1966

July 3:
KEWR: 105/1966
KBDR: 99/1966
KNYC: 103/1966
KLGA: 107/1966
KJFK: 104/1966
KISP: 104/1966

July 4:
KEWR: 105/1949 KBDR: 98/1949 KNYC: 102/1949 KLGA: 100/1949 KJFK:
101/2010 similar set up is expected for Thursday with a 15 to 20
kt flow and 4-5 ft 6s swell.KISP: 97/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 77/2018
KBDR: 73/2013
KNYC: 79/2018
KLGA: 79/2018
KJFK: 75/1968
KISP: 73/2025

July 2:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 82/1901
KLGA: 78/2002
KJFK: 74/2018
KISP: 74/2014

July 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018

July 4:
KEWR: 81/2002
KBDR: 80/2002
KNYC: 81/2002
KLGA: 82/1999
KJFK: 80/2002
KISP: 76/2002

July 5:
KEWR: 81/1999
KBDR: 74/2018
KNYC: 82/1999
KLGA: 86/1999
KJFK: 80/1999
KISP: 78/1999

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-
     009>011.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Friday for CTZ005>012.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Friday for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ332-340-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$