What's Happening In Newington

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FXUS61 KOKX 032329
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorm threat is now over. Dry through Tuesday with
patchy fog development.

2) High surf expected for the ocean beaches through this
evening. High rip current risk through Tuesday.

3) Very warm and very humid for Thursday into weekend.
Potential for scattered afternoon/early evening heavy downpour
and thunderstorm activity Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold front and shower threat will be exiting east of the
forecast area by around sundown. No thunderstorms anticipated
with any showers.

High pressure and dry weather is on tap for Tuesday. Good
radiational cooling conditions tonight should allow for patchy
fog development for outlying areas.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Long period southerly swells of 8ft@9s supports a high surf
advisory for the ocean beaches and dangerous rip currents in the
surf zone through this evening.

High surf subsides tonight, with a borderline moderate to high
risk of rip currents expected for Tuesday with residual 4-5@7ft
SE swell. Will lean towards a high risk and extension of rip
current statement for Tuesday, with ongoing high risk.

Moderate rip risk likely for Wednesday as SSE swells continue
to subside to 3 to 4 ft.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm threat returns
Wednesday and continues through the weekend as region lies on NW
edge of Bermuda ridging. This will also bring a very warm and
very humid airmass into the region Thu thru the weekend with
deep SW flow and 850hpa temps rising to 18-20C.

This will likely have temps in the upper 80s to around 90
across NYC/NJ metro an interior, with Tds in the lower to mid
70s, bringing heat indices into the mid to upper 90s late week
and possibly into the weekend.

Forcing will be from weak convectively enhanced vorts rounding
the upper ridge Wed and Thu, and then approaching weak northern
stream shortwaves Fri into the weekend. Focus on Wednesday will
be a dissipating frontal boundary working through the area,
with possible weak wave development, with lee/pre- frontal
troughing the focus through the weekend.

This setup will present an isolated severe and flash flood threat
each aft/early eve.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds tonight and remains in control through
Tuesday.

Mainly VFR. Some outlying terminals may go MVFR/IFR late tonight
into Tuesday morning in fog.

Gusts may linger through this evening. Winds come more N/NE
tonight and lighten. Winds remain under 10 kt Tuesday out of the
E/SE.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD not expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday through Saturday: MVFR or lower flight cat at times
in showers/tstms, highest chance for western terminals. Winds
mainly S-SW.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions for the ocean and southern and eastern
non- ocean waters through this afternoon with south winds of 15
to 20 kt and gusts up to 30 kt. Brief W/NW wind gusts to 25 kt
possible for all waters in wake of cold frontal passage late
this aft/early eve.

Winds subside below SCA this evening, but SCA for seas will
continue for the western ocean waters thu daybreak and through
the morning for eastern ocean waters with residual SSE swell.

Sub advisory conditions likely Tue afternoon through midweek
under weak pressure regime.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...NV