NewingtonWeather.COM

903
FXUS61 KOKX 130317
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1017 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of mainly light to moderate rainfall tonight and
Friday with impacts no longer anticipated.

2) Minor coastal flooding is possible in vulnerable locations
along the Long Island south shore during the Friday daytime
high tide cycle.

3) High pressure will bring dry conditions into much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Periods of mainly light to moderate rainfall expected tonight
as the center of low pressure passes S of Long Island. The low
will be slow to move east due to the influence of upper low
pressure in the vicinity. This will prolong precip overnight
into daytime Fri as well while NE gusty winds back to the N
through the day.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of a recent new moon (Nov. 9) and an area of low
pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast today should cause
another round of minor coastal flooding along the Long Island
south shore during the Friday daytime high tide cycle. Coastal
flood advisories are in effect for the south shore of Nassau
and Suffolk. N flow should prevent water levels from reaching
threshold elsewhere.

Blend of bias corrected NYHOPS and P-ETSS 50th percentiles used
for surge.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Behind the exiting low this weekend, a sprawling area of high
pressure gradually builds to the west into early next week, then
settles over the area mid to late next week. Below normal temps
this weekend should moderate to near normal Mon-Tue, and then to
a few degrees above normal Wed-Thu as heights also rise aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Nearby low pressure to the south slowly shifts east and pulls
away to the northeast tomorrow into tomorrow night.

Flight categories primarily MVFR tonight at most terminals,
with IFR anticipated north of the city terminals. IFR is then
probable at all terminals by the end of the Friday morning push,
lasting into the afternoon with improving flight categories
late in the day and probably VFR by 00z Saturday.

NE to N winds tonight, then N to NW on Friday. Gusts becoming
more frequent by the start of the morning push, mostly 20-25kt
through the day Friday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

IFR cigs possible after 06z, and could potentially last through
the entire morning push.

Vsby could be P6SM through 08-09z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: Mainly VFR, but could be MVFR early. N-NW winds
gusts 20-25 kt in the evening.

Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday and Monday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20 kt on Sunday.

Tuesday: VFR. Light winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings expanded to the eastern Sound/Bays of Long Island
into daytime Fri, and to most the outer ocean waters E of Fire
Island Inlet for tonight. Gale warnings remain in effect on the
near shore ocean waters for tonight into Fri afternoon. E flow
in these areas should gust to 35-40 kt mainly during the first
half of tonight, then as low pressure passing to the S slowly
pulls away on Fri winds should back NE-N and gust to 35 kt.

Did not extend the gale warning on the outer ocean waters into
daytime Fri due to uncertainty on low track and timing/strength
of stronger winds on the back side of the low. It is possible
these areas could be S of the low initially and experience SW
flow at first, then shift to NE-N later Fri as the low pulls
away to the E and could gust to 35 kt.

SCA cond in the form of hazardous ocean seas should linger on
the near shore ocean waters into Fri night and possibly into
Sat morning.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for NYZ080-
     081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-380-383.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ332-340-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ335-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ338.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...Goodman