982
FXUS61 KOKX 261440
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1040 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system impacts the region through this evening. High
pressure builds towards the area on Sunday, settling overhead
Sunday night through Monday. The high pushes off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast Monday night. The next frontal system approaches
Tuesday and moves across the area Tuesday night through
Wednesday. High pressure returns Wednesday night into Thursday.
Another frontal system may impact the area the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Updated mainly to add isolated thunderstorms across the eastern
portion of the region where storms have been occurring.

Low pressure will move over New England today with its
associated warm front lifting to our north early this morning.
The trailing cold front will then follow in the afternoon and
evening. Middle level shortwave energy and thermal forcing
support showers early this morning, some of which could be
moderate at times. Latest observational and model trends
indicate these showers may shift east of the area a bit quicker
with a relative min in coverage, at least closer to the coast
for the rest of the morning. Have adjusted PoPs accordingly to
match these trends. Interior locations could see showers
continuing, closer to surface low and greater surface
convergence.

Showers this afternoon may end up scattered with some broken
bands along and ahead of the cold front. Felt the NBM PoPs were
too high given the consensus of the latest CAMs, which supports
the idea of scattered coverage of showers with potential of a
few bands. There may also be a few thunderstorms, as some
instability develops aloft. This is due to falling heights as a
result of a vigorous closed upper low approaching from the NW.
Some breaks in the clouds are possible this afternoon,
especially along and just ahead of the cold front. These breaks
could briefly increase instability. Some question remains as to
how far east any thunderstorms may occur. However, the falling
heights aloft support elevated CAPE over coastal locations
influenced by the marine layer. Will mention a slight chance of
thunder afternoon/early evening across Long Island and Southern
Connecticut and a chance west of there with a bit more
instability.

SPC has included NYC and NE NJ in a marginal risk for a severe
thunderstorm wind gust, but think the the threat is very
limited for these areas. The potential appears greater further
south of the area and more towards central and southern NJ.
Some locally heavy downpours are possible, but the progressive
nature of the system will limit potential impacts to just some
minor urban flooding. Outside of showers and any thunderstorms,
S-SSW winds could gust 20 to 30 mph, especially near the coast.

The cold front will quickly move offshore this evening bringing
an end to any lingering showers or convection. Dry conditions
return tonight with a gusty NW flow. Have continued to go close
to the upper end of the guidance resulting in gusts 25-30 mph,
potentially 35 mph in a few spots near the coast with cold
advection and a steepening pressure gradient overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper closed low/trough will continue swinging across the
northeast Sunday morning. The system should emerge off the New
England coast Sunday evening. High pressure will slowly build
towards the area from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through
Sunday. The region will lie between low pressure near the New
England coast and the high to our west. Gusty NW winds are
expected on Sunday with deep mixed and continuing cold
advection. Sustained winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph are
likely and a few spots could reach 40 mph. A subsidence
inversion around 5 kft traps enough moisture to keep mainly
broken stratocu clouds for much of the day on Sunday. Highs will
be below normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Ridging builds both aloft and at the surface Sunday night into
Monday. The pressure gradient gradually relaxes, but the boundary
layer likely will remain mixed enough to keep breezy conditions
through the night. The subsidence inversion weakens Sunday night
and skies should become mostly clear. Lows will be in the 40s
for most spots with temperatures around 50 in the NYC metro.
High pressure over the area on Monday moves off the Middle
Atlantic coast Monday night. Dry conditions will continue, but
a warming trend commences with highs returning to above normal
levels on Monday in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No changes were made to the forecast Tuesday through the end
of the week.

Upper level ridge axis moves over the area Tuesday, with a warm
front lifting north of the area Tuesday night, followed pretty
quickly by the cold front Wednesday. The passage of the cold
front looks moisture starved, lacks a strong upper level
trough, and with the surface low passing well north and west of
the region in southern Quebec, much of the forcing with this
front will be well north of the area. Therefore, not looking at
a lot of precipitation. In fact, while there might be some light
rain showers Tuesday night in association with the warm front,
the passage of the cold front may move through dry.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday through Wednesday night
as another upper ridge moves through the northeast Thursday
night, which allows the next frontal system to approach for the
end of next week.

As for temperatures, they will be above normal increase through
mid week, with Tuesday being the warmest. Highs will be in the
70s away from the coast, and 60s along the coast. Temperatures
fall back to seasonable on Thursday, with 60s expected region-
wide, with slightly warmer readings expected for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front moves through this evening.

Mainly IFR with localized LIFR categories through early
afternoon. Some improvement to MVFR possible this afternoon. IFR
conditions then possible again with any TSRA with cold frontal
passage this evening. VFR thereafter with the passage of the
cold front this evening and into the overnight. Showers
possible at any given time through early this evening. TSRA
also possible starting this afternoon for all but
KISP/KBDR/KGON.

S winds around 15kt increase a little this afternoon and
veer closer to SW with gusts 20-25kt. Winds shift W-NW behind
the front with gusts 25-30kt. Gusts increase to up to 30-35kt
for Sunday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely through this evening for changing categories
and any TSRA development. Improvement back to MVFR and VFR may
be off by 1-2 hours.

Gusts may be only occasional through early afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts 25-30 kt. Wind gusts lower to near
20 kt in the evening and diminish overnight.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR at night with possible
showers. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon at night. Wind
gusts up to 25 kt possible at times for afternoon into evening.

Wednesday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Updated to include isolated thunderstorms this morning over the
ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet, and the eastern Sound,
and eastern Long Island bays.

Increasing S-SSW flow is expected today and have gone ahead
with including all waters in an SCA. While gusts may be marginal
on the harbor and central/western Sound, felt there is enough
potential for gusts to reach close to 25 kt. Gusts 25-30 kt are
likely on the ocean, LI Bays, and eastern Sound. A few gale
gusts cannot be ruled out east of Moriches Inlet, but not enough
confidence to put up a gale warning at this time. Winds may
briefly drop below SCA levels this evening, but then ramp back
up tonight behind a cold front passage. This will increase winds
back to SCA levels on all waters and continue through Sunday. A
few gale gusts cannot be ruled out, but similar to this today
confidence is very low at this time for a warning. Decided to
extend the SCA through 6pm Sunday despite there likely being a
lull on the non-ocean waters for a time tonight. Any lull with
SCA winds on the ocean will occur with elevated seas.

Winds and seas will subside below SCA levels Sunday evening into
Sunday night. High pressure building over the waters early next
week will lead to conditions below SCA levels through Tuesday.
Wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are possible over the ocean and south
shore bays Tuesday night with the approach and passage of a cold
front. Waves build to 5 to 6 ft on the ocean waters during this
time frame. Waves slowly diminish Tuesday night, falling below
SCA criteria on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JP/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/DS