What's Happening In Newington

723
FXUS61 KOKX 031428
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
928 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is increasing in another shot of frigid air for this
weekend with potential for cold weather headlines.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and continued cold through Thursday night.

2) An Arctic front will bring a chance for light snow on Friday,
and another shot of frigid air for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A short respite from Arctic cold, however, temperatures still
remain below normal through Thursday. Conflicting signals as to
whether temps today will be as high as on Monday, with GFS MOS
pushing 40 in NYC and NE NJ via downslope flow, but with
slightly colder H8 temps and H8-10 thicknesses and more cloud
cover. Tempered those warmer values with more recent cooler GFS
LAMP guidance, with high temps in the mid 30s in NYC and NE NJ,
and the lower 30s elsewhere. As a closed low passes to the north
tonight, a weaker srn stream trough will pass to the south.
Given the more southern trend in the guidance have removed PoP
from the forecast, with dry conditions expected tonight. Temps
Wed-Thu will trend colder as this sys moves offshore and induces
offshore cyclogenesis as well and low level CAA in its wake
over our region, and as another upper trough moves across on
Thu.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An Arctic cold front likely to drop SE toward the area Fri into
Fri night as a 490-ish dm H5 closed low drops SE from Hudson
Bay and partially phases with an Alberta clipper disturbance
also diving SE at the same time into the eastern CONUS.
This combo will take on a negative tilt, with the closed low
passing across the Northeast this weekend, driving the Arctic
front through late Fri night and then inducing strong sfc
cyclogenesis SE of New England.

In terms of sensible weather, some light snow showers will be
possible mainly late Friday into Friday night. Snow at first
may be light in a weak WAA regime and then become showery or
squally with the passage of the front. Moisture is very limited
with this system, any snow accumulation should be light and snow
ratios will be high due to the cold air already in place.

Very cold and blustery conditions are likely after the frontal
passage. Temps this weekend may not get out of the teens, with
lows mostly below zero well inland and in the single digits
closer to the NYC metro area and the coast. Wind chills will
likely be as low as 5 to 10 below late Fri night, and at least
10 to 20 below if not a few degrees colder Sat night and Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure gives way to an approaching cold front this
evening. This front moves across the terminals early Wednesday.

VFR through the TAF period. There may however be occasional
MVFR cigs with some flurries this evening, however not enough
confidence to include in the TAFs.

W winds under 10 kt increase to around 10 kt by early
afternoon. W winds diminish a bit tonight, then veer NW and
increase Wednesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may vary 20-40 degrees from forecast through 17z.

Low chances of MVFR cigs/flurries this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. Chc NW gusts 16-20kt Wed morning.

Friday: Afternoon and evening MVFR or lower possible with a
chance of snow. WNW gusts 30-40 kt late Friday night.

Saturday: VFR. NW winds 20-30kt with gusts 35-45 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions expected through Fri evening.

An Arctic cold frontal passage Fri night will bring
strengthening winds and building seas, with NW gales likely
late Fri night into Sat. Freezing spray could be moderate to
heavy at times this weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman
AVIATION...JC/DS
MARINE...Goodman