What's Happening In Newington

547
FXUS61 KOKX 150758
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
358 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Upper low departs to the east today with isolated to widely
scattered showers.

2) Summer-like warmth builds this weekend into the first half of
of next week. Cold water safety concerns for this weekend with
good boating weather, and water temps still in the lower 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper low over the area this morning will pass to the east
today with isolated to widely scattered showers. The best chance
will be this afternoon across southern CT and eastern LI. Steep
low-level lapse rates, cyclonic flow, and low-level moisture
should also result in a fair amount of clouds, with partly to
mostly cloudy skies. W-NW winds may gust 15 to 20 mph.

Highs today are forecast to get up into the 60s, slightly below
normal for most locations.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Upper level ridging builds in tonight through early Saturday,
then flattens some for the rest of the weekend before significant
height rises work into the easter third of the country early
next week. The latter of which will result in a significant
warmup, with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal for Tuesday
and Wednesday. At this time, forecast highs fall well short of
record highs, with many well into the 90s.

Before then though, temperatures will steadily increase through
the weekend, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s Saturday, then
into the 80s for most locations on Sunday. Highs could get
close to 90 across metro NE NJ. BDR and ISP are forecast to be a
few degrees short of record highs Sunday, which is 85 set back
in 1974.

The high temperature forecast remains a bit tricky as the NBM5.0
continues to look too warm, especially near the coast. Have
generally adjusted it downward for high temps a couple of degrees
Saturday and Sunday. Much of the guidance is still a bit cooler
than these values as well. What is interesting, is the NBM box
and whisker plots show very small differences over the weekend
between the 25th and 75th percentiles. The median and NBM
deterministic are nearly on top of each other. So this tells us
there is not much spread in the guidance, however, the bias
algorithms may be still adjusting heading into the warm season.
Time will tell.

Additionally, there are cold water safety concerns this weekend as
water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water
temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical
incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone
going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly
and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. A Marine Weather
Statement will likely be issued later today.

Global model guidance for midweek continues to show a break
down of the upper-level ridge in response to a closed upper-low
traversing Canada. Rain chances increase with a cool down for
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface low pressure and a cold front slowly move farther east
of the region today. Meanwhile, an upper level trough remains
over the area.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for NYC terminals and
terminals north and west through the TAF period. To the east of
NYC terminals, there will be a chance for some showers along
with brief MVFR conditions today. Still possible for occasional
IFR conditions at KGON before 12Z Friday.

Regarding winds, NYC terminals and terminals to the north and
west are getting a more NW flow near 5-10 kts. The NW flow
increases once again during the day to near 10 kt. Some gusts
are also expected to develop mainly in the 15-20 kt range for
most terminals mainly in the afternoon. Winds become light and
variable Friday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gust timing could be a few hours off from TAF.

Gust may be more occasional Friday and not occur every hour.

Low chance of a shower with MVFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR with gusts diminishing. Chance of sub-VFR
conditions well east of NYC.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR with possible rain showers.

Saturday night. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon and early
evening.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR with possible rain showers
early.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon and early
evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A building SE swell from low pressure heading up into the
Canadian Maritime will produce SCA seas across the ocean waters
today into the fist half of tonight. Any respite after this
will be short-lived, as high pressure quickly builds across the
waters late tonight into Saturday morning, then to the east. A
strengthening southerly flow is likely to bring a return to SCA
conditions on the ocean late Saturday afternoon/early evening.
Some of the south shore bays could eve see a period of 25 kt
gusts. Winds and seas will then begin to gradually subside the
second half of Saturday night into Sunday. However, seas could
linger around 5 ft on the ocean waters for much of Sunday.

Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated Sunday night through Monday
night. Tue into Tue night, seas on ocean waters may climb to 5
ft.

There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water
temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures
can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to
anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small
boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme
caution to avoid this threat. A Marine Weather Statement will
likely be issued later today.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW