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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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838 FXUS61 KOKX 300729 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 329 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Conditions remain dry and gradually warm the next few days with high pressure in place. 2) Cooler weather returns this weekend, with a chance for rain into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure builds east and settles offshore into Friday. This will allow drier conditions to persist with a gradual warm up. More sunshine is expected today compared to Tuesday, but still anticipate sct stratocu to develop in the afternoon with a cirrus deck moving in late. A weak warm front lifts up to the northwest on Thursday leading to an increase in high and mid cloud cover, but expect conditions to remain dry. Temperatures get into the 70s both days, with Thursday several degrees warmer than today. By Friday, deep SW flow helps pump H925 temps toward 22-23C. Forecast highs are into the low 80s for most areas, perhaps mid 80s in urban NE NJ, about 10 degrees over climo for early October but far from record territory. A cold frontal passage late Friday brings an end to the warmth. A few showers are possible with the front Friday evening, mainly across the north and west interior, but coverage and impacts appear limited. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Behind the frontal passage, surface high pressure quickly builds east from the Great Lakes, ushering in a cooler air mass for the weekend. With cool, dry northerly flow, temperatures Saturday likely struggle to reach 70 in most areas. Winds veer E by Sunday as the high shifts into New England. Forecast confidence then lowers a bit by late in the weekend with uncertainty around a possible wave of low pressure that could develop and pass to the south. Global NWP and AI guidance has generally backed away from wetter solutions previously offered, but being 4 to 5 days out, will still need to monitor. For now, went with the national blend`s 20 to 30% chance for showers Sunday and Sunday night. Otherwise, remaining cooler in the 60s with high pressure once again building in from the Great Lakes into early next week. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pres builds offshore today, and remains over the Atlc thru Thu. Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. Pockets of MVFR possible overnight with CIGS hovering around 3000 ft. Mainly NW flow thru early this mrng, although some variability is possible due to the light flow. KJFK forecast to get more of a sea breeze today, with LGA and EWR possible by late this afternoon into early this evening. Winds become SW all areas this eve. Winds aob 10kt thru the TAF period. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Late day sea breeze likely at KJFK and possible at KLGA and KEWR. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Tonight-Thursday night: VFR. Friday-Saturday: MVFR possible with possible showers. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Saturday night-Sunday: Chance of showers. MVFR or lower possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Light SW flow continues through Thursday with high pressure settling offshore. Winds and seas increase with an approaching cold front Friday and this could lead to a brief period of SCA conditions on some of the coastal ocean waters by Friday evening. Behind the fropa, winds turn N on Saturday, then E by Sunday, but conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DR AVIATION... MARINE...DR |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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