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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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627 FXUS61 KOKX 191125 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 725 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Timing of showers on Thursday has become a bit more fine tuned, however, uncertainty still exists in total expected rainfall. QPF and PoPs have trended higher in the latest forecast update. The WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island for Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and potential thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Embedded stronger thunderstorms and heavy downpours are possible. 2) Unsettled weather this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front approaches today and will stall over or near the area through the weekend. The persistent upper level trough over the eastern US continues through this period as well. Shortwave energy currently over the Northern Plains will round the base of this trough and aid in development of a wave of low pressure that will pass near the area. While forecast PoPs have increased to widespread likely, exact strength and location of this wave will determine the amount of rainfall we see. Both global guidance and CAMs are struggling on location of the frontal wave. One thing to note is that even the solutions farther north (wetter) do not have very impressive CAPE profiles and any instability that is available appears to be confined to the lower levels. This could mean some of the higher hourly rates that certain CAMs are outputting might be overdone. Regardless, isolated heavy downpours can not be ruled out given pwats around 2 inches and decent low level lift. Forecast QPF is a bit higher than the latest deterministic NBM with 0.75 inches for northeast NJ, NYC and western Long Island and 0.25 to 0.50 inches elsewhere. Isolated higher amounts are possible, especially for northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island. While flash flooding is not expected, it can not be completely ruled out for these areas and the WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. While thunderstorms are possible, the severe potential is likely farther south of our area. While shear values are impressive (0-6km bulk shear of 45-50kt), the aforementioned weak/low CAPE profile will be a limiting factor. The SPC has continued to keep the marginal risk south of our area. Strong wind gusts in any thunderstorms or stronger convective showers are possible given up to 500 j/kg of DCAPE. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The front looks to push farther offshore for Friday before additional waves of low pressure pass nearby over the weekend. There looks to be another period of potential moderate to heavy rainfall, specifically during Saturday afternoon and evening. Once again, guidance is struggling with strength and location of the offshore wave that will form ahead of a negatively tilted upper trough. The WPC has a marginal risk for the entire area. Thunderstorm activity with this event is expected to remain mainly offshore, although isolated thunder along the coast can not be ruled out. With the stalled front still offshore on Sunday, a cold front approaches from the west. This brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. It is too far out to talk specific details on strength of showers/thunderstorms, but it is worth noting that the latest CIPS and CSU MLP are hinting at potential isolated severe thunderstorm activity for NYC and north and west. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak high pressure remains near the region today. Other than some leftover stratus/fog at KGON, which should dissipate by 13z, expect a VFR forecast through the TAF period. Light N/NW winds early this morning becomes more W/SW by afternoon, mainly 7-10kt. Winds become light again tonight. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of afternoon seabreeze may be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower at times mainly during the afternoon and evening. Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times. Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions currently forecast through the start of next week. There is a low chance for forecast winds and waves to trend higher depending on location and strength of a wave of low pressure on Thursday evening. Rip Currents: With winds forecast to be less than 10 kt currently for today and Thursday, and a weakening swell, there is a low risk of rip currents. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JT AVIATION...BC MARINE...JT |
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NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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