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291
FXUS61 KOKX 300121
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
921 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Special Weather Statement issued for the LoHud Valley and S CT
on Friday for an elevated fire spread risk.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions persist through at least early next week.

2) There`s an elevated risk of fire spread for the Lower Hudson
Valley and southern Connecticut on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The driest stretch of the year so far persists for the next
several days.

Surface high pressure centered to our south and east weakens
tonight ahead a moisture starved cold front approaching from the
west. Cloud cover increases overnight ahead of the boundary,
but conditions remain dry and skies clear by early afternoon
once it passes through. Winds also veer NW post frontal Friday
afternoon and could be noticeably blustery at times, with
occasional gusts up to 25-30 mph.

Behind the fropa, dry, cooler conditions settle in for the
weekend. Temperatures on Friday remain slightly above normal,
with highs in the 60s to around 70 and lows mainly in the 50s.
Saturday will be cooler and afternoon highs fall back in the
upper 50s/lower 60s, with evening temperatures in the 40s and
upper 30s outside of NYC. Frost is possible Saturday night
outside the NYC metro.

Guidance continues to keep dry conditions in place through
early next week. Conditions may begin to turn more unsettled by
mid to late next week.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of sufficiently dry fuels, gusty NW winds 20 to
30 mph and relatively low RH values behind a cold frontal
passage will lead to an elevated risk of fire spread for parts
of the area Friday afternoon.

In collaboration with state partners and neighboring forecast
offices, have hoisted a Special Weather Statement for southern
Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley to highlight this
threat from 11 AM to 6 PM Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains nearby, and a dry cold front moves
through Friday morning.

S-SW winds mainly 10 kt or less tonight become WSW late, then
W-NW with fropa in the morning. Speeds increase to 10-20 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt by late morning, increasing to 20-25 kt during
the afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of onset of stronger winds daytime Fri could occur 1-2
hours earlier than fcst.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night and Saturday: VFR. Diminishing NW winds Fri
evening.

Sunday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters out 20 nm for Fri
afternoon and evening as NW flow gusts up to 25 kt after a
cold frontal passage in the morning. High pressure should then
build in for the weekend, with sub-SCA conditions on all waters
through at least early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
MARINE...DR/BG