What's Happening In Newington

542
FXUS61 KOKX 282035
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
335 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of fog and black ice still possible for parts of the
area tonight.

2) Snow showers expected on Sunday.

3) Multiple waves of low pressure will move through the area
Tuesday through the start of next weekend. Expect a prolonged
period of wet and mostly cloudy conditions with above normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOS and time-lagged NAM/RAP guidance suggest greatest potential
for fog will be across Long Island, NYC, and SW CT. for several
hours from about 9-10 PM until 1-2 AM as a cold front moves
through and a drying northerly flow in its wake scours out low
level moisture. With the expected timing and temperatures,
best potential for freezing fog would be across eastern Long
Island.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
No advisories are currently anticipated for snow or wind chills.

Weak shortwave trough accompanied by some H8 theta-e advection
and H7 frontogenesis will move through daytime Sunday, mainly
during the morning and early afternoon. Have kept likely PoP
which is above NBM and MOS guidance, and lowered accumulations
slightly, with up to an inch well inland and more on the order
of a dusting for the NYC metro and coastal sections.

Precip should be exiting eastern Long Island/CT by late
afternoon. the end of the day. Thermal profiles support snow as
wet bulb temps should be at or below 32 for the duration of the
event. Minor impacts expected for the most part.

Colder air filters in from the north during Sunday night with
low temps from the upper single digits well inland, to the teens
elsewhere. Wind chills should bottom out around zero well inland
and in the single digits elsewhere. Highs for Monday only from
the mid 20s to lower 30s in most spots, and get to within 3
degrees of record low maxes for the date at Newark, JFK, and
Islip.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The first chance of precipitation next week comes on Tuesday. As
Arctic high pressure shifts to the east, a wave of low pressure
looks to pass through. Because of the cold air in place Tuesday
morning, this precipitation likely starts off as snow across
the interior with a snow or rain/snow mix at the coast. We will
quickly warm up so through the day the area will gradually
transition to all plain rain. There are still some timing
differences with just how early the precipitation will start and
this will end up affecting p-types and any sort of accumulation.
At this time, under an inch of snow expected. Even the NBM 4.3
and 5.0 90th percentiles for snow accum show less than an inch
for much of the area with the exception of the Lower Hudson
Valley where it shows a few inches of accumulation.

Once the Arctic airmass shifts east, a warming trend will begin,
with above normal temperatures expected by Wednesday.
Timing and location differences with additional waves of low
pressure continue in the latest guidance. While prolonged wet
conditions are expected, the period will not be a washout by any
means. There are chances of rain each day, but this is largely
due to the spread in guidance. From Tuesday through Saturday the
latest NBM has a total of about 0.75 to 1.00 inches of QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure off the northeast coast weakens as a cold front
approaches through this evening and moves through tonight. High
pressure builds in from the west late Sunday into Sunday night.

Mainly VFR until Sunday morning with light snow. There is a
chance of MVFR ceilings in stratus during the evening before a
cold front passes through the terminals, and now included a
TEMPO for this possibility. There also may be visibility
restrictions in fog, however, confidence is low for fog and not
included in the forecast.

Light snow Sunday morning into the early afternoon west, and
into late afternoon far east, with generally MVFR conditions
and a possibility of IFR visibilities in light snow, and
maintained the TEMPO group for the lower conditions. Once the
snow ends VFR develops.

Winds S/SW 10 kt or less ahead of a cold front, becoming light
and variable as the front nears, then NW/N 10 kt or less after
the cold front.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence of fog development this evening, with a period of
stratus more likely. There is a chance that stratus does not
develop and now included a TEMPO for the possibility.

Moderate confidence with the timing of the snow for Sunday, and
a brief period of IFR visibilities.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon: MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys in light snow, ending
west to east 18Z to 21Z. Becoming VFR. N/NW winds G15-20 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a rain/snow mix in the morning,
becoming plain rain during the afternoon and into the evening
south to north. S wind G15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday - Thursday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of
rain. Thursday S wind G15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions expected for the most part through
Tuesday. Conditions may get close for a time on the ocean late
Sunday night, with N flow gusting over 20 kt and seas up to 4
ft. Light freezing spray expected on the ocean waters Sunday
night into Monday morning as well.

There are several weak waves of low pressure that will pass
through, with winds and seas on the ocean getting close to SCA
criteria Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then again at the end
of the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/JT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...Goodman/JT