What's Happening In Newington

403
FXUS61 KOKX 172214
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
514 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure meanders over Atlantic Canada early this week as
high pressure builds in locally from the Midwest. A weak low
passes off the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night into Wednesday.
High pressure returns to the Northeast Thursday, before exiting
offshore late week as a frontal system impacts the area Friday
into Saturday. High pressure then briefly returns the second
half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Mid-level flow is beginning to flatten out as a large surface
low pressure system remains positioned over southeast Canada.
Surface high pressure is building into the area today and
tonight. The pressure gradient will slowly relax which will
allow winds to gradually diminish this evening and overnight.

Gusty NW flow will persist into at least the first half of
tonight. Gusts upwards of 40 mph will be possible. While there
remains a very small possibility of a scattered flurry for far
NW areas this afternoon, the rest of the evening and overnight
should be fairly dry with skies gradually clearing. Lows tonight
will be in the upper 20s inland to the low to middle 30s along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build into the area on Tuesday.
Flow will continue out of the WNW during the day Tuesday though
it should be substantially weaker than previous days with gusts
upwards of 20-25 mph possible. Highs will only climb into the
middle to upper 40s.

An approaching midlevel shortwave from the west by Tuesday night
will allow a weak and transient surface low to develop west of
the area. This low is expected to slide south of the area
bringing with it much of the moisture. Despite being on the
north side of the low without much moisture, there remains a
chance for some light rain and/or snow for the cooler spots
Tuesday night and into very early Wednesday morning. Any
precipitation is expected to be very light and cause little, if
any, impact. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s inland
and in the low to middle 30s along the coast.

The low very quickly shifts offshore Wednesday with any light
rain along the coast early Wednesday morning departing by mid-
morning. Winds shift more N but remain fairly light as high
pressure builds over the area once again. Highs on Wednesday
will still be cool with temperatures climbing into the middle to
upper 40s. High pressure continues to build in Wednesday night
with lows in the upper 20s inland to middle 30s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key point:

* Rain chances increase late Thursday night and Friday with an
  approaching frontal system, with dry conditions returning the
  second half of the weekend into Monday.

Blocking over the north Atlantic breaks down early in the period
with a mid level confluent flow between the northern and southern
branches over the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Mid Atlantic
states.

Uncertainty in the forecast becomes more pronounced at the end of
the week as a frontal system approaches from the west. Global
ensembles continue to offer varying solutions, and will likely
see changes in timing and the magnitude of the system due to
the complexity of the upper flow and the fact that much of this
energy is still offshore in the Pacific. As of this update, the
forecast has increasing chances for rain late Thursday night
into Friday, with conditions then improving on Saturday as the
system passes to the east. Low chances for showers will linger
into Saturday night which is not unusual for a consenus
forecast, which is weighing in many different model solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. High pressure builds over the terminals today into Tuesday
morning.


WNW winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-35 kt through late this
afternoon. Winds then diminish after sunset but should still be
gusting 20-25kt through around 06-09Z. Sustained winds then
remain above 10 kt through Tuesday morning.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts 35-40 kt late this afternoon, though becoming less
likely as we head into the evening.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20 kt. Gusts diminish at
night.

Tuesday night: Chance of MVFR or lower in light rain, mainly late.

Wednesday through Thursday: Mainly VFR. Possible light rain/MVFR for
some terminals for early Wednesday morning. Higher chance for rain
and MVFR late Thursday night.

Friday: MVFR or lower at times in rain. S winds G15-20kt. Saturday:

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warning continues on the ocean waters through this evening
with frequent gusts 35 to 40 kt. SCA is then expected to
persist through at least midday Tuesday. SCA remains on the
non-ocean waters through late tonight, though a few isolated
gale force gusts will remain possible through the evening.

Seas through this evening range from 6 to 10 ft on the ocean,
and 4 to 6 ft on central/eastern Long Island Sound. Ocean seas
likely fall below 5 ft by Tue midday, and conditions then
remain below SCA levels through midweek with high pressure
nearby.

An approaching frontal system and a strengthening S flow on Fri
may bring the next chance for SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydrological concerns through the
end of the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DR/MW