What's Happening In Newington

602
FXUS61 KOKX 030315
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1015 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory issued for Orange NY and Western
Passaic NJ for Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A wintry mix to rain is expected for Tuesday.

2) Above normal temperatures and generally rainy late week into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Polar high pressure will retreat offshore out into the western
Atlantic tonight into Tuesday, while a frontal system over the
Mid Atlantic states returns northward as a warm front. Initially,
there is enough cold air in place for a chance of snow everywhere
Tuesday morning, but with an onshore easterly flow, temperatures
are forecast to warm fast enough for a transition to rain along
the coast by late morning/early afternoon. Coastal locations will
likely see the boundary layer warm above freezing before it
happens aloft. Thus, any freezing rain is expected to be
confined mainly north and west of the NYC metro. There is some
uncertainty as to how quickly the warm nose comes in aloft. The
12Z NAM warms both aloft and at the surface faster than the 12Z
GFS. There has also been a trend toward colder 2m temps. The
latter will be critical in how quickly even the interior goes
over to plain rain. Right now, expect this to happen in a south
to north transition during the afternoon hours.

Cold air is generally slower to lift out across northern and
western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ.
This area will have the best chance of a light ice accretion.
A winter weather advisory is in effect for Orange County in NY
and western Passaic in NJ. Elsewhere across the interior, the
transition to rain is forecast to be quicker and any freezing
rain should be more localized. The latter may be better handled
with a Special Weather Statement as we get closer to the event.
The one caveat here is that if the cold trend continues inland,
advisories may need to be expanded.

For the temperature forecast, weighted toward a blend with the
Hires guidance (HRRR and HREF). The NBM has been too warm in
similar setups. The NBM is also trending colder and may be
playing the catchup game with the 12Z guidance.

Rain will be heaviest during the nighttime hours Tuesday as the
warm front briefly lifts over or just north of the area before
dropping south behind a frontal wave later at night. Liquid
equivalent amounts are forecast to range form 0.4 to 0.7",
highest across eastern LI and SE CT.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper teens inland and in
the Pine Barrens Region of LI, to the 20s at the coast. Highs
on Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 30s inland and upper 30s
to around 40 at the coast. Due to the cold ground to start, ice
accretion even with marginal temperatures may be pronounced at
the onset.

High pressure and much warmer conditions are on tap for
Wednesday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Offshore high pressure, and northern branch systems tracking near
and north of the region will allow for a prolonged period with above
normal temperatures from Thursday through the beginning of next
week. While no records are expected to be set during this period
temperatures in generally will be around 10 degrees above normal
Thursday through Saturday, and above normal by as much as 20 degrees
Sunday and Monday. There is the potential for a couple of record
high minimum temperatures Sunday, March 8. The Temperatures will be
especially mild inland, while coastal areas will be several degrees
cooler with a southerly flow off the cold ocean, with sea surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

A frontal boundary will be in the vicinity of the area Thursday into
Saturday with a couple of waves of low pressure moving along the
boundary. With mild conditions plain rain is expected across the
forecast area. There will be a brief lull in the chances of
precipitation Friday night into Saturday after the second wave
departs. Then with a cold front slowly approaching Saturday night
into the beginning of next week another round of plain rain/showers
will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Hi pres builds offshore tngt. A frontal sys impacts the area on
Tue.

VFR thru tngt then becoming VFR to IFR S to N Tue mrng. A
wintry mix will develop, mainly around and aft 12Z, with a
changeover to rain from S to N thru the day. More snow at the
onset at KSWF, with KTEB-KHPN-KSWF likely to see a period of
FZRA, possibly also KBDR.

Winds blw 10 kt thru the TAF period. Light S-Se flow should
become E overnight thru Tue.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of pcpn start Tue mrng uncertain. It could be as early as
10Z, or after 12Z. Exact timing of p-type changes may need to be
amended as well.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: IFR in rain. Possible improvement to MVFR late.
Winds becoming SW-W.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night: MVFR cond possible. Chance of rain after
midnight. Freezing rain possible at KGON.

Thursday and Friday: MVFR or lower cond with periods of rain
and fog.

Saturday: MVFR or lower cond at night with rain likely.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in control through tonight, then a
weak wave of low pressure will impact the area beginning
Tuesday. Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean
waters Tuesday night into Wednesday morning due to a period of
southwesterly winds. Best chance for 5 feet seas will be east of
Moriches Inlet. High pressure follow for Wednesday.

Small craft advisory seas are possible on the ocean waters,
mainly east of Fire Island Inlet, Friday into Friday night. A
strengthening southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front
Saturday will allow for more widespread 5 foot ocean seas at SCA
levels Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, gusts on the ocean
will be near 25 kt Saturday night. For the non ocean waters
winds and seas remain below SCA levels Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ067.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MET/DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...MET/DW