What's Happening In Newington

871
FXUS61 KOKX 071138
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
738 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind speed forecast increased for this afternoon into evening.

Freeze Watch issued for tonight for portions of NYC/NJ metro.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Breezy with scattered shower activity (possibly mixed with
sleet/wet snow across interior) early this morning, and then
more isolated activity late morning into afternoon.

2. Frost-Freeze conditions for much of the area Tonight and
Wednesday Night.

3. A warming trend for late week with above normal temperatures
likely Friday into Saturday. Potential for well above normal
temps for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Broad upper trough remains over the NE today, with trough axis
over Great Lakes early this AM approaching this afternoon and
swinging through this evening. At the surface, weak low pressure
over SE Ontario this AM, tracks through central NY into central
New England thru this afternoon, with weak warm front moving
through early this morning and then cold front late morning into
afternoon.

Scattered showers early this morning with warm front, mixing with
wet snow across interior LoHud and southern CT. No accumulation
expected for most of the region, except a low prob for a dusting
across interior S CT on grassy surfaces/car tops where temps have
fallen into the lower 30s this AM.

Then potential for isolated showers late this morning into this
afternoon from west to east with cold frontal passage and
approaching shortwave. Better coverage appears to be across
central New England with vort max, perhaps clipping interior SE
CT with scattered coverage this afternoon. With cold pool
aloft, cant rule out some sleet or snow flakes mixing in across
the interior. Brief winds gusts to 40-45mph also possible with
any heavier shower activity with steep low-level lapse rates
and modest winds and cold pool instability aloft.

Otherwise, breezy conditions developing this afternoon areawide
and continuing into this evening in wake of cold
front/departing low with NW winds 15-25G35mph. Peak gusts to 40
mph possible.

CAA with cloud cover will have temps running several degrees
below seasonable today, in the upper 40s interior to lower 50s
city/coast. Temps will drop quickly (10+ degrees) during any
heavier shower activity with cold pool aloft.

Although winds are gusty and RH values fall into the mid to upper
20s this afternoon for NE NJ into NYC metro, per coordination with
NJ fire partners, no fire wx headlines due to fuel moisture levels
still running high.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Upper trough axis slides east tonight, with rising height for mid
week. At the surface, modifying polar high builds towards the area
tonight and slides across Wed into Wed Night. Temps will run several
degrees below seasonable for this time period, with high running
about 10 degrees below seasonable on Wed as 850 hpa temps
running slightly below zero.

Good model agreement in temps falling into the mid to upper 20s for
much of the area tonight on caa NW flow. Potential for radiational
cooling across far outlying areas (interior valleys and pine
barrens) late tonight if winds decouple, allowing temps to
fall well down into the 20s, perhaps a few upper teens.

For the NYC/NJ metro and Nassau county, growing season began on
April 1, based on median date of the last Spring Freeze. The urban
portions of this area are not conducive to radiational cooling. Have
stayed closer to NBM for NYC proper with urban heat island and low
levels likely remaining mixed, keeping temps just above freezing.
Have issued Freeze Watch for eastern portions of Essex and Union
county in Nj, Staten Island and Bronx in NYC, and Nassau County
based on stronger agreement in sub-freezing temps from guidance.
No frost headlines, as low-level appear mixed enough to prevent
surface temps from radiating to freezing.

Moderation of airmass Wed into Wed night will bring slightly milder
temps for Wed Night. Good radiational cooling conds for Wed Night
should have temps across far outlying areas falling into the
mid to upper 20s once again, but NYC/NJ proper should remain
above freezing. Frost conditions possible Wed Night for
tonight`s freeze watch area across NYC/NJ metro and Nassau
county.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Good model agreement in east coast ridging building in for late
week in response to broad troughing settling into the northern
plains and Great Lakes. Moderating airmass and retreating
Canadian maritimes high should allow temps to warm several
degrees above seasonable on Friday (mid to upper 60s),
potentially even into the 60s at the coast before afternoon
seabreeze development.

Shortwave and weak cold frontal passage Friday night likely not
enough to keep temps from running above seasonable on Saturday with
gusty NW flow, in fact the offshore flow should allow for
milder temps for the coast. Widespread 60s likely across the
area, several degrees above seasonable.

Temps falling back towards seasonable for most of the area on Sunday
as Canadian high briefly settles in.

Potential for temps rising well above seasonable (20+ degrees above
normal) for early next week with deep western troughing and
downstream southern ridging building towards the region. 850
hpa temps warming into the lower teens in deep W/SW aloft flow
could have temps rising towards 80 for interior and widespread
60 to 70s for the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front passes through the region this morning into this
afternoon with high pressure building in thereafter.

There are a few leftover rain showers moving north and east of
NYC terminals. Some additional showers are possible later
today. Some isolated brief MVFR conditions are possible with
some shower activity. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are
anticipated through the TAF period.

Winds transition from being light and variable to more NW and
increasing in speed during the TAF period. Sustained winds increase
to near 10-20 kt with gusts increasing to near 25 to 30 kt
today. Gusts decrease tonight but will still be near 20 to 25
kt on average. Peak gusts in the 30-35 kt range expected latter
half of this afternoon into early this evening. Wind direction
becomes more northerly late tonight and more northeasterly for
early Wednesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of rain showers could be off by 1-2 hours from TAF.

Occasional peak gusts to near 35-40 kt possible today.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. Some afternoon SE wind gusts to 15-20 kt along parts
of the coast.

Thursday: VFR.  Some afternoon SE wind gusts to 15-20 kt along parts
of the coast.

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA gusts expected this afternoon/evening for all waters in
wake of cold front, gradually diminishing tonight.

Sub-SCA conditions expected Wed into Thu with a weak pressure
gradient under high pressure building in.

Easterly swells likely build to SCA levels on the ocean on Fri
with persistent easterly fetch between high pressure overhead
and offshore low Thu into Fri. These swells should gradually
subside heading thru the weekend in wake of Sat AM frontal
passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     NYZ073-074-177-179.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...NV