NewingtonWeather.COM

561
FXUS61 KOKX 181153
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
753 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated. No significant changes overall.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The humidity lowers today, with pleasant, dry, and cooler weather
to begin the weekend.

2) Wet weather increasingly likely for the second half of the
weekend. Isolated to scattered impacts related to flooding possible.

3) High uncertainty as to the degree of unsettled weather Monday
through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cooler and drier air mass works in behind the cold front during
today and into tonight. Dewpoints are forecast to fall through the
60s through the early afternoon, and then through the 50s during the
late afternoon and evening, and potentially into the middle and
upper 40s late tonight. This would allow outlying areas to fall into
the upper 40s and lower 50s with respect to minimum temperatures by
Saturday morning. With high pressure getting further east during
Saturday afternoon and a developing easterly flow daytime
temperatures across portions of the area may struggle to get out of
the upper 60s to begin the weekend, especially across eastern
sections.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A warm front begins to approach from the west-southwest late
Saturday night with a SE flow ensuing and dewpoints beginning to
increase by late Sunday morning. A light rain is expected towards
the late morning and the early afternoon. However, with the column
becoming increasingly moist and PWATs increasing to near 2 inches
the ingredients get into place for a steadier and heavier rainfall
to develop. The heavier rainfall is more likely towards later in the
afternoon and during Sunday evening. Strong warm advection will take
place near and just above the 850 mb level with higher theta-e
values being advected in, along with added synoptic forcing via the
influence of right-rear quadrant divergence from an upper level jet.
BUFKIT fx soundings indicate depth to the warm cloud layer to
support warm rain processes and mean RH well above 90 percent
throughout the low and mid levels. WPC has much of the area in a
slight risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday. It remains too soon to
pinpoint exactly where locally heavier rainfall amounts will occur
and will have to be refined getting closer to the event, along with
forecast peak rainfall rates. Suffice it to say that the ingredients
are in place for isolated to scattered localized instances of flash
flooding.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Most NWP and AI derived guidance has the front getting south of the
area on Monday. This will get the region on the cooler and more
stable side of the frontal boundary. How far south the boundary gets
will ultimately determine if Monday remains primarily dry, or if
light shower activity will linger. High pressure attempting to build
from the north may dry out the low levels some. A cool east to
northeast flow regime along with cloud cover should keep daytime
temperatures below seasonal norms Monday through Wednesday. Low
pressure develops offshore by mid week and with a blocky and less
progressive upper level pattern in place the mid to late week will
feature a good deal of clouds with rain chances. However the timing
of precipitation will be difficult with disagreement among forecast
models around the synoptic details. Much of the model guidance is
now suggesting the upper level low closing off over the northeast
later in the week, suggesting clouds and the potential for more
unsettled weather late in the week also. Forecast confidence day to
day remains below average for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Behind a cold front, high pressure will begin to build in from
the north for the TAF period.

Conditions have returned to mainly VFR as lower level stratus
has scattered out for most locations. KSWF still has some lower
IFR to MVFR stratus which is expected to scatter out this
morning before 14Z. Category forecast VFR by late morning
through the rest of the TAF period.

Regarding winds, a northerly flow expected near 10 kt, becoming
more NE towards end of the TAF period. Some gusts 15-20 kt will
be possible during the day.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional northerly gusts 15-20 kt late this morning into this
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: Showers move in late Saturday night with MVFR
possible, north and west of NYC terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

Sunday: Showers expected, potentially heavy at times. A slight
chance of a thunderstorm. MVFR or lower at times. Southeasterly wind
gusts near 15-20 kt Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chances of showers, showers
likely early. A slight chance of a thunderstorm early to the east of
NYC terminals. NE wind gusts near 20 kt.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible at times. A chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions prevail through this evening. A brief period
of small craft wind gusts are expected on the central and
eastern ocean waters late tonight and early Saturday morning.
This should subside towards towards Saturday afternoon as the
pressure gradient weakens. A better chance at prevailing and
more widespread small craft conditions develops by early Monday
morning primarily for the ocean waters. By Monday night small
craft conditions should spread into all marine zones. Gale
conditions become likely out on the ocean by early Tuesday
morning and may spread into the non-ocean zones into mid week on
a ENE flow and wave heights on the ocean eventually climbing
above 10 ft.

Rip Currents:
The winds will be offshore and out of the NNW today with a
moderate rip risk trending towards low later this afternoon. The
risk should remain low on Saturday with a wind more out of the
ENE and parallel to the ocean beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT
     Saturday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE