What's Happening In Newington

687
FXUS61 KOKX 182204
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
604 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is uncertainty that the area can destabilize enough into
this evening to support severe weather. While the overall
confidence in severe weather has decreased, there still remains
a threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front will
likely trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms this
evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 2 AM for NE NJ,
NYC metro and Southern Westchester.

2) Concentration of smoke across the region is forecast to
decrease heading into Sunday. Air quality alerts remain in
effect from State DEPs until midnight.

2) Dangerous rip currents are expected at ocean beaches through
this evening, potentially lingering at Suffolk beaches early Sunday.

3) Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible late Tuesday
into a portion of Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong upper trough moving across the Northeast this evening
along with deep-layerd shear (speed and directional), PWATS
over 2 inches, and multiple frontal boundaries still raises the
concern for severe weather and localized heavy rainfall through
this evening.

A warm front sitting just south of the area is providing the
focus for showers and thunderstorms just south of LI. The
boundary was originally forecast to move north of the area, thus
allowing the airmass to destabilize ahead of pre-frontal trough
this evening. Rain-cooled air in the region has kept temperatures
in the 70s and dew points mainly in the 60s. However, the warm
front will remain in close proximity this evening and may be
able to work north with some breaks in the cold cover allowing
for some late day heating. The latest HRRR hints at this
somewhat and even pokes some of the convection back into NYC and
western LI. The pre-frontal trough then moves through the area
this evening, from 8 pm to midnight. So, the ingredients are
there for severe weather, with SPC maintaining an enhanced risk
of severe weather north and west of line from western LI to SW
CT. To the east, there is a slight risk. While the main threat
will be damaging wind gusts, an isolated tornado is also
possible due to high shear/high helicity environment. The one
big uncertainty will be how much we can destabilize.

In addition, the flood watch will remain up as portions of the
NY/NJ metro saw 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour earlier in the
afternoon. It won`t take much additional rainfall for urban
flooding to resume.

The threat of the heavy rain and severe weather will likely be
over by midnight with perhaps a few showers and/or thunderstorms
lingering into the early morning hours.

High pressure builds in for Sunday with less humidity, plenty of
sun, and temperatures at or just below normal in the lower 80s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Hires models continue to show smoke concentrations decreasing
into into this evening as a shortwave and showers/storms move
across the area. NYDEP, NJDEP, and CTDEEP all have air quality
alerts in effect until midnight.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Dangerous rip currents are expected at ocean beaches through
this evening. A high rip current risk is in effect due to
a strengthening southerly flow at 15 to 20 kt and SE swells.

On Sunday, the while a lingering 5 to 6 ft swell at 7-8s looks
to continue in the morning, swell should decrease during the
morning yielding an overall moderate rip current risk for the
day.


.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Guidance continues to be in good agreement on an amplified
shortwave trough moving across the northeast Tuesday into
Wednesday. The trough may linger through the end of week. The
next front system will approach on Tuesday with increasing
probabilities for another round of showers and thunderstorms
late Tuesday into Tuesday night. CSU MLP is still indicating a
marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm and WPC still has the
area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. It is a bit too
early for any specific severe or flooding impacts, but will
continue monitoring trends over the next few days. Lingering
showers may continue into a portion of Wednesday. High pressure
should build into the northeast with mainly dry weather to end
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front will move across the terminals late this
morning/early afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage
later tonight.

A combination of smoke and TSRA is reducing cigs and vsbys this
morning across the area. As TSRA/SHRA coverage increases into
this afternoon, expect the smoke to move out of the area this
evening. So mainly a VFR/MVFR, or high end IFR, in TSRA/SHRA
through about 03Z.

Tonight, some MVFR or lower cigs will be possible for the first
half of the night, with improvement back to VFR behind a cold
front as drier air works in from the north. The only exception
could be at KGON, where sub-VFR conditions could continue for
much of the overnight period.

SW/S winds increase to 10-15 kt with G20-25kt, with the highest
across the eastern terminals. Low chance for SW LLWS below
2kft. Tonight, winds gradually become more westerly the
northwesterly behind a cold front.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely today for 1- Any changes in smoke
conditions from the wildfires in Canada and 2- timing of showers
and thunderstorms associated with the frontal system moving
across the area terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday and Monday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms.

Thursday: Late day MVFR possible in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA has been dropped across the non-ocean waters as a warm front
has remained across the area with a weaker flow. However, winds
are forecast to increase from the SW this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front with marginal SCA conditions expected on
the ocean waters. Vertical temperature profile is inverted over
the waters, so getting winds much higher than 25 kt to the
surface will be a challenge. but the SW fetch should get seas up
to 5 ft. 5 ft seas may linger on the ocean east of Fire Island
Inlet into Sunday morning.

Conditions are then quiet until the next cold frontal passage
during the middle of next week. SCA conditions are possible Tuesday
through Wednesday night, with the potential of 7 to 10 ft seas.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ071>075-176-178.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DW