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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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790 FXUS61 KOKX 110242 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1042 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Shower threat diminishing this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated shower this evening, then scattered showers Saturday morning into afternoon, with localized heavy downpours, particularly for NE NJ/NYC metro and surroundings. 2) Seasonably warm and comfortably dry Canadian airmass Sunday into Monday with seasonably warm temperatures. 3) Hot and humid conditions build for Tue/Wed. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... An isolated shower remains possible this evening, especially across SW CT. This activity should weaken with loss of heating and wake of passage of a shortwave. Northern stream trough axis and RRQ of ULJ pivots towards the area Saturday, along with convectively enhanced vort train streaming towards the Mid-Atlatic from the Mid Mississippi river Valley. At the surface, high pressure is slow to build in as the weak cold front passes through this evening appears to stall across the northern Mid Atlantic on Saturday. Trend over the last 24 hrs has been slower drying of the environment on Saturday, with increased potential for scattered showers (localized heavy downpours) and isolated tstms. A few high-res guidance solutions indicating potential for scattered heavy downpours and isolated low-topped thunderstorms, particularly across the NE NJ/NYC metro in the morning into early afternoon, in a weakly unstable and residually moist airmass (1 1/2-2" PWATS). Will have to monitor trends as this is only a small percentage of the guidance, but would introduce a low and localized flash flood potential. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Good agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while Canadian high pressure gradually builds down from southern Canada thru the weekend and overhead by Monday. Seasonable temps with comfortably lower Tds on Sunday and Monday as heart of Canadian high and airmass advects into the region. .KEY MESSAGE 3... General agreement in central US heat ridge expanding eastward into the region Tue and Wed, allowing for building heat and humidity locally. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day with heat indices in the middle to upper 90s. Potential for heat advisory thresholds to be hit by Wednesday for NE NJ/NYC metro. Thereafter inherent uncertainty on the degree to which a strengthening Hudson Bay/Quebec upper low deteriorates the ridge, and suppress the high heat and humidity south of the local region for late week into weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will move south across the area tonight, but the threat of showers and thunderstorms has diminished enough to take out the PROB30 for thunder. An isolated shower is still possible through 04Z. Showers are possible between 12-18Z Saturday, so PROB30 was added for this, for all terminals except KSWF and KGON as the chances for any showers are lower here. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during this time frame as well. Conditions should be VFR through the forecast period. Brief MVFR or lower is possible in isolated heavier showers, but these are expected to be widely scattered. Winds will be around 10 kt or less through the period. A WSW flow will shift to the NW overnight, then NE by around daybreak saturday, and then to the E to ESE by the afternoon. Occasional gust to 20 kt are possible from mid morning through the afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible with any development of showers and thunderstorms this evening (though this is becoming less likely) as well as showers and an isolated thunderstorm Saturday morning into the early afternoon. Occasional gusts to 20 kt possible from mid morning into the evening on Saturday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday through Wednesday: VFR expected. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue into Saturday, with high pressure building towards the waters. Potential for a brief period of marginal SCA seas Sat Night into Sunday AM in response to 15G20kt easterly flow Sat aft/Sat Night between developing offshore low and building high. Otherwise Sub-SCA expected through early next week as high pressure remains in control. Rip Currents: Low to locally moderate rip risk (E to W longshore current dominant) for Saturday and Sunday with 1-2 ft S/SE swells, and 3 ft E wind waves. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DS/NV AVIATION...JP MARINE...NV/MW |
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