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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY

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790
FXUS61 KOKX 110242
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1042 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Shower threat diminishing this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated shower this evening, then scattered showers
Saturday morning into afternoon, with localized heavy downpours,
particularly for NE NJ/NYC metro and surroundings.

2) Seasonably warm and comfortably dry Canadian airmass Sunday into
Monday with seasonably warm temperatures.

3) Hot and humid conditions build for Tue/Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

An isolated shower remains possible this evening, especially
across SW CT. This activity should weaken with loss of heating
and wake of passage of a shortwave.

Northern stream trough axis and RRQ of ULJ pivots towards the
area Saturday, along with convectively enhanced vort train
streaming towards the Mid-Atlatic from the Mid Mississippi river
Valley. At the surface, high pressure is slow to build in as
the weak cold front passes through this evening appears to stall
across the northern Mid Atlantic on Saturday.

Trend over the last 24 hrs has been slower drying of the
environment on Saturday, with increased potential for scattered
showers (localized heavy downpours) and isolated tstms. A few
high-res guidance solutions indicating potential for scattered
heavy downpours and isolated low-topped thunderstorms,
particularly across the NE NJ/NYC metro in the morning into
early afternoon, in a weakly unstable and residually moist
airmass (1 1/2-2" PWATS).

Will have to monitor trends as this is only a small percentage
of the guidance, but would introduce a low and localized flash
flood potential.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Good agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE US
this weekend and offshore on Monday, while Canadian high
pressure gradually builds down from southern Canada thru the
weekend and overhead by Monday.

Seasonable temps with comfortably lower Tds on Sunday and Monday as
heart of Canadian high and airmass advects into the region.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...

General agreement in central US heat ridge expanding eastward into
the region Tue and Wed, allowing for building heat and humidity
locally. Wednesday looks to be the hottest day with heat indices in
the middle to upper 90s. Potential for heat advisory thresholds
to be hit by Wednesday for NE NJ/NYC metro.

Thereafter inherent uncertainty on the degree to which a
strengthening Hudson Bay/Quebec upper low deteriorates the
ridge, and suppress the high heat and humidity south of the
local region for late week into weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move south across the area tonight, but the
threat of showers and thunderstorms has diminished enough to
take out the PROB30 for thunder. An isolated shower is still
possible through 04Z. Showers are possible between 12-18Z
Saturday, so PROB30 was added for this, for all terminals except
KSWF and KGON as the chances for any showers are lower here. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during this time
frame as well.

Conditions should be VFR through the forecast period. Brief MVFR
or lower is possible in isolated heavier showers, but these
are expected to be widely scattered.

Winds will be around 10 kt or less through the period. A WSW
flow will shift to the NW overnight, then NE by around daybreak
saturday, and then to the E to ESE by the afternoon. Occasional
gust to 20 kt are possible from mid morning through the
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible with any development of showers and
thunderstorms this evening (though this is becoming less likely)
as well as showers and an isolated thunderstorm Saturday
morning into the early afternoon.

Occasional gusts to 20 kt possible from mid morning into the
evening on Saturday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday through Wednesday: VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions continue into Saturday, with high pressure
building towards the waters. Potential for a brief period of
marginal SCA seas Sat Night into Sunday AM in response to
15G20kt easterly flow Sat aft/Sat Night between developing
offshore low and building high.

Otherwise Sub-SCA expected through early next week as high pressure
remains in control.


Rip Currents:

Low to locally moderate rip risk (E to W longshore current
dominant) for Saturday and Sunday with 1-2 ft S/SE swells, and 3
ft E wind waves.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS/NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...NV/MW

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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