What's Happening In Newington

754
FXUS61 KOKX 121433
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisory was cancelled.

Small Craft Advisory issued for the ocean waters for Monday into
Monday night. Otherwise forecast remains mostly on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Sunday will be dry with slightly below seasonable temps, and only
slightly higher min RH values of 25-35%, possibly a few wind gusts
to 20 mph late in the afternoon from NYC north/west.

2. Unseasonably mild/warm (10-15 degrees above normal) on Monday
with SW winds gusting to 25-35 mph likely across NYC/NJ metro and
interior in the aft/eve.

3. Forecast remains on track for a significant warmup next week,
peaking during the Wednesday into Thursday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Temperatures have warmed into the lower 40s and frost is no
longer expected. The Frost Advisory was cancelled.

A developing return flow off the ocean is expected as high pressure
moves offshore, with increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching
weak shortwave aloft and sfc warm front, will keep temperatures from
getting out of the 50s today. Light winds this morning will give way
to a tightening pressure gradient and increasing S-SE winds gusting
up to 20 mph by late afternoon. Min RH values will still lower to 25-
35 percent, then increase late in the afternoon especially closer to
the coast. SPS not issued for elevated fire wx risk, but that could
change for the NY zones from NYC north/west away from the
oceanfront.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A more distinct and slightly stronger shortwave approaches
Monday afternoon. At the surface, warm front moves north Mon AM
(iso-sct showers possible with passage mainly over southern CT)
with a pre-frontal trough approaching/entering the area Monday
afternoon.

A tight pressure gradient ahead of this feature (45-50 kt LLJ at
850 mb) will bring likelihood for 25-35 mph gusts across the
NYC/NJ metro and interior, and potential for some 40-45 mph
gusts if heating/mixing is better than expected and allows for
full mixing from the top of the mixed layer. Limiting factor
will be considerable cloud cover. In addition, iso-sct showers
are possible with this feature in aft/eve with approaching
forcing, theta-e advection and perhaps some weak instability.

Despite cloud cover, strong WAA (850 hpa temps 12-14c), and
modest mixing should have temps rising into the upper 70s
across NE NJ, and into the lower/mid 70s elsewhere from NYC
north/west. For Long Island and most of S CT maritime influence
off still mid 40 degree ocean waters should limit mixing depth
and keep high temps in the 60s, and likely only in the 50s along
the immediate oceanfront.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
It will be unseasonably warm Tuesday through next Saturday, with
the potential for record warmth mid week. A broad upper ridge
centered over the Southeast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
a confluent flow to the north will produce a warm, deep layer
WSW flow. High temperatures on will average at least 15-25
degrees above normal and as much as 20-30 degrees above normal
on Wed, when some record high temps are possible. Temps in metro
NE NJ Wednesday and Thursday may peak around 90. Records during
the late wee time frame are quite high, getting into the heat
wave of 2002. Several climate sites from April 16-18 2002
reached 90 or higher for 3 consecutive days. Don`t see that
happening at this time. Additionally, there is the potential for
an even longer period of days with record high minimum
temperatures.

Where this forecast could go wrong is with the proximity of a
frontal boundary to the north during mid week, and then Thu
night/Fri when a weak cold front may move into the area.

As for rain chances, any convection moving around the ridge into
the area still looks to be of low probability.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over the area today, before pushing
offshore late this afternoon and this evening. A warm front lifts
north late tonight.

VFR prevails today into this evening. MVFR conditions becoming
possible after 06z Mon, and more likely toward 09z. Low chance of
showers late tonight across mainly northern most terminals. Have
kept out of TAFs due to low confidence of occurrence.

A light SE flow develops later this morning, then winds become more
S and SSE in the afternoon around 10kt as seabreezes develop. S
winds continue into Sunday evening. S to SW winds for later Sunday
night.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: Brief MVFR possible early, especially north. Otherwise mainly
VFR. Slight chance of showers during the afternoon and evening, MVFR
possible early and late. SW winds gusting 20-25kt.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day, best chances inland, with MVFR
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions through tonight, although a brief period of
gusts up to 20 kt is possible late today into early evening for
NY Harbor and adjacent ocean waters near the harbor entrance
via sea breeze enhanced SE-S winds.

SCA issued for the ocean waters for Mon into Mon night as SW
flow increasing to 20 kt could gust to 25 kt at times through
the day on the ocean, as well as bring seas 5-7 ft from then
into Mon night. An SCA may eventually be needed elsewhere, as
gusts to 25 kt may also be possible on the Long Island south
shore bays, NY Harbor and the western Sound Mon afternoon/early
evening due to sea breeze enhancement.

Some 5-ft seas may linger on the ern ocean waters into early
Tue AM. Otherwise, sub SCA cond expected into Thu night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed April 15:
KEWR: 88/1960
KBDR: 81/1960
KNYC: 87/1941
KLGA: 86/1941
KJFK: 80/2006
KISP: 78/2024

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/MET
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...Goodman/MET