What's Happening In Newington

371
FXUS61 KOKX 151847
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
247 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Overall rainfall for Sunday night into Monday morning has
slightly decreased, especially for northern areas.

Small Craft Advisory now in effect for some of the waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday night into early
Monday morning may produce locally heavy downpours with a risk
of minor urban/poor drainage flooding and localized flash
flooding.

2) Mainly dry and seasonably warm Monday afternoon through
Wednesday before the next chance of a shower or thunderstorm on
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...

The high pressure system over the area today will move east and
shift offshore tonight into Sunday morning as a warm front
approaches from the south and west Sunday afternoon. Broad
parent low pressure is likely to pass to our north Sunday into
Sunday night, but a secondary low pressure may develop over or just
south of the area. Several weak shortwaves will also pass across the
northeast at the same time. The system will quickly move offshore
Monday morning into the afternoon.

Warm air advection with the approach of the warm front will allow
for the development of some showers moving in from the west Sunday
afternoon. Given the antecedent dry air at the surface, these
showers may dissipate in intensity as they approach the area. The
warm front looks to remain largely south of the area into Sunday
evening before a secondary low development pushes the warm front
closer to the southern portions of the area late Sunday night into
Monday morning.

This will allow for more robust development of showers, perhaps with
isolated thunderstorms, late Sunday evening, but mainly into Monday
morning. Instability will be limited ahead of the warm front with
some mid-level capping in place. Regardless of the presence of
thunder, showers will be fairly convective in nature and with PWAT
values increasing to 2-2.25" overnight, these showers may produce
locally heavy rainfall, perhaps reaching rates of 1-2" per hour at
times. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
and given the recently wet conditions, FFG remains near 1" in
an hour for portions of urban NE NJ. Flash flooding appears to
be a more isolated threat at this time with minor urban and poor
drainage flooding the main concern. This batch of showers with
isolated thunderstorms should be moving at a quick enough speed
east to prevent large scale training of the heaviest rain.

Any severe thunderstorm threat also appears minimal at this
time. The greatest concern for severe thunderstorms resides over
the Middle Atlantic where instability is higher. However, will
have to watch near and along the warm front/secondary low Sunday
night if instability were to increase more than currently
forecast.

Lingering showers and an isolated storm are possible early Monday
morning, mainly east of the NYC metro as the system shifts offshore.
Conditions should trend dry through the morning with only an
isolated shower/storm possible Monday afternoon and evening NW of
the NYC metro. Overall total rainfall expected is 0.5"-1" with
locally higher amounts in any thunderstorms.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will build over the area Monday night through the
middle of the week. This will lead to dry conditions and seasonably
warm temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Models are coming into
slightly better agreement with the next upper trough moving over
the northeast on Thursday, which may send the next cold front
across the area supporting the next chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms. Timing of this system is still uncertain with
some guidance having it move through early Thursday, while
others move it through Thursday night. The latest NBM PoPs are
30-40 percent Thursday morning through Thursday night,
accounting for the aforementioned uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region today then slides east on
Sunday.

VFR through Sunday morning, bcmg MVFR with rain developing in
the afternoon.

Light variable to northerly winds outside of sea breezes.
Otherwise, for coastal terminals, anticipating sea breezes to
push through late this afternoon wherever they have not already
done so. Winds become light and variable tonight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

For KLGA, sea breeze timing could be off by 1-2 hours with a
later arrival more probable if off. For KEWR, sea breeze may
shift back and forth over the terminal, causing winds to vary
mostly N-NE to SE under 10kt for the next couple of hours until
the anticipated final shift to SE, which also may be 1-2 hours
off.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday aftn: Lowering to MVFR in rain. S gusts 15-20kt.

Sunday night: Lowering to IFR in rain. S gusts 20-25kt. Slight
chance of thunder late.

Monday: IFR improving to MVFR in the morning with showers and
slight chance of thunder early. MVFR improving to VFR in the
afternoon with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Chance for showers and MVFR at night. Southerly
wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into night.

Thursday: VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will lead to conditions well below SCA levels
on the waters through tonight. S flow gradually increases on
Sunday as the high moves offshore yielding potential for 25-30
kt wind gusts on the ocean, LI Bays and potentially the NY
Harbor and LI Sound. A SCA is now in effect for the ocean waters, NY
Harbor and the Great South Bay Sunday night into Monday. These winds
may linger Monday morning on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet.
Seas will also build Sunday and especially Sunday night, reaching 5-
7 ft. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels Monday night
through mid week as high pressure builds back over the waters.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains low for today at ocean
beaches. The rip current risk increases to moderate on Sunday with
building seas, especially in the afternoon, to 3-4 ft and S winds
around 15 kt. The risk may increase to high for NYC and Nassau
ocean beaches, especially if winds end up higher and seas build
a bit faster.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 4 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MW