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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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310 FXUS61 KOKX 251309 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 909 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A complex frontal system will impact us tonight through Saturday bringing several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe and flash flooding impacts are not anticipated at this time. 2) High pressure builds late this weekend into the middle of next week. With it may come a prolonged period of summer heat. However, confidence is low towards mid-week with unsettled weather remaining in the cards. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A complex frontal system will impact us tonight through Saturday bringing several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe and flash flooding impacts are not anticipated at this time. Late this week and early this weekend, an upper-level jet streak will traverse near the region. This jet streak aloft with a shortwave aloft will help guide a weak a surface low from the Great Lakes to New England late today into Friday morning. This low will bring bring a warm front into the area tonight which will bring up PWATs to modest levels tonight between 1.5 and 1.75". This front will aid in lift for showers and thunderstorms. Likely chances for showers will begin later tonight, aided by synoptic level lift as we sit under the left exit region of a jet streak. The chance for showers will end in the morning as the weakening low washes out over New England. There may be enough instability this evening and early tonight for some shots of thunderstorms, mainly N&W of NYC. Then as thunderstorms progress eastward into tonight, they will move into a more unfavorable environment along the coast. Another shortwave aloft will bring a surface low from the Ohio River Valley Friday into our region Friday night into Saturday. This low will pass along an already existing stalled frontal boundary near the region. This one looks to arrive on the later side of things, with most shower chances occurring late Friday night into early Saturday morning. This also aligns with the best synoptic level lift as the region sits under the right entrance region of a jet streak. Best chance of rain will be in the morning hours Saturday, with showers decreasing in coverage in the afternoon as the weakening low slowly traverses the area. However, rising heights aloft later on Saturday will lead to dry conditions by Saturday evening. Most of what occurs will be plain showers. The one shot we have for thunderstorms with this second low will be Friday afternoon in the interior. There won`t be much lift available with the low still far away. If thunderstorms occur, they may remain very isolated. Temperatures today and Friday look to be warm with highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the 60s. It will also be noticeably more humid as we will be warm-secorted by the warm front. However, heat indices will not be a concern. By Saturday, we will no longer be warm-sectored, with highs slightly cooler in the mid/upper 70s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Surface high pressure will drop down from Canada on Sunday and cause conditions to dry out. Meanwhile, mid level ridging begins to amplify over the Midwest, with the local area straddling the eastern periphery of this ridge. Plenty of uncertainty with the strength and positioning of the ridge as it attempts to build east. Some model guidance show a digging trough over the Western Atlantic may try to close off which would lead to a cooler, more unsettled pattern. Conversely, there are other models that offer shallower, more transient troughing that favors warmer weather with a quicker eastward expansion of the ridge. Adding to the low confidence is the possibility of any ridge rollers coming down into the area, producing more in the way of convection and muted temperatures. NBM spread captures this uncertainty well, with 15+ degree separation between the 25th and 75th percentile high temperatures mid next week. For now, increasing confidence in seasonable summer heat returning early week, with at least the possibility for hotter weather mid to late next week, though many solutions still on the table. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak high pressure this morning gives way to a warm front approaching form the SW later in the afternoon, moving into the area tonight. Mainly VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. Brief MVFR conditions are possible towards daybreak Friday with showers and a chance of thunder. The best chances for any MVFR or lower is KSWF and for any terminal that receives a thunderstorm. Light and variable winds expected overnight. On Thursday the winds start off mainly out of the SE at 5 to 10 kt, then increase to around or just above 10 kt and become more southerly towards or just after 18z. Occasional gusts around 20 knots are possible at the NE NJ terminals towards 18-20Z Thursday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional gusts to 20 kt. Brief MVFR possible, mainly if a thunderstorm moves over the terminal late tonight into Friday morning. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday-Saturday: Brief MVFR possible in a shower Friday morning. Chance of MVFR or lower late Friday night into Saturday morning in showers. Sunday and Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-advisory conds are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents today and Friday with 2 to 3 ft southerly swells at 5-7 sec periods. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BR/DW AVIATION...JP MARINE...BR |
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