What's Happening In Newington

773
FXUS61 KOKX 290838
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
338 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold weather advisories issued for late tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The unseasonably cold and frigid conditions continues through the
remainder of the week. Cold weather advisories are in effect for
much of the region late tonight into Friday morning. Additional cold
weather headlines will likely be needed for late Friday night into
Saturday morning.

2) A coastal storm develops and intensifies off the SE US Coast this
weekend. It remains a bit too soon to determine impacts with any
confidence at this point. Far eastern portions of the region
continue to have a relatively higher chance at seeing some
accumulating snowfall compared to the rest of the region, along with
stronger wind gusts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in
terms of minor coastal flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

More reinforcing shots of arctic air through Friday night. Sub zero
wind chills will become more widespread over the next couple of
nights. The NBM has been overdoing minimum temperatures where the
winds have not fallen off, along with most wind chill minimums. The
winds do get more of a northerly component and with a slightly
better source region of cold over the next couple of days
temperatures should get even a bit colder. However, perhaps not
quite as cold as the NBM is advertising, especially in the metro and
some coastal locations. Keep in mind our CWA has two different sets
of criteria when it comes to the cold weather advisories, thus
southern CT zones are expected to fall short of the -10 wind chill
criteria tonight with most wind chills there closer to -5 or so.
Otherwise, cold weather advisories for the remainder of the region
were issued for wind chills of -5 or colder for southern zones, and -
10 to -17 for northern zones. It will remain dry with clear to
partly cloudy skies through Friday night and the first half of
Saturday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming
weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing
would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday
evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling
continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with
the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave
pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to
progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the
500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of
Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the
vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras.
Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our
area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at
this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely
scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be
completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some
room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would
bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to
moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms
of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for
any changes.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in through the TAF period.

VFR.

NW winds. Speeds will generally remain around 10kt early this
morning, then increase after 15Z to around 12-15kt. Gusts of
20-25kt this afternoon may end up being more occasional.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts today may be off by an hour or two and may be
more occasional at times.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 20kt.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. There is a chance for some MVFR or
lower conditions along with a chance of snow, mainly late night
Saturday into Sunday. Best chance will be across the terminals east
of NYC. Northerly wind gusts increasing at night to 20-25 kt, then
30-35kt on Sunday. There is low confidence at this time on the
magnitude of winds and snow.

Monday: VFR with NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions are expected through today and into much of
tonight. Towards Friday morning small craft conditions with gusts to
around 25 kt will become increasingly likely for the ocean waters.
Marginal small craft gusts will become a possibility during the day
Friday for far eastern LI Sound. Small craft conditions may linger
into Friday night for the ocean waters, but confidence of this
remains low at this time.

A potent storm develops off the SE coast later Saturday into
Saturday night. The storm will then track well offshore later in the
weekend for Sunday into Sunday night. This will likely bring a
prolonged period of gales for the non-ocean waters, along with gale
and potentially storm force conditions to the ocean later in the
weekend with elevated seas. The storm system will pull away into
Monday with conditions subsiding some, likely to small craft
conditions during Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Friday for CTZ005>008.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ067>075-176>179.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ350-353-355.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE