NewingtonWeather.COM

661
FXUS61 KOKX 031145
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
745 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes overall.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Next chance of rain Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with no
significant impacts.

2) Dry next week and generally cooler than normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure over the Northeast through tonight shifts away into
the Canadian Maritimes during Sunday. This will allow a weak wave of
low pressure along a weak frontal boundary to approach us. It
appears that it comes close enough to bring the likelihood of
showers across Long Island into NYC and parts of NE NJ with Chance
PoPs farther north mainly Sunday afternoon and night. Rain amounts
likely remain under a quarter of an inch, so no impacts expected.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will dominate the weather pattern next week with dry
weather expected Monday through Friday. High temperatures in the 60s
for the most part. Only chance of any headlines would be related to
a frost potential in some of the northern suburbs Tuesday night as a
clear sky and light to calm winds should help temperatures there
fall into the mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes builds east today,
passing to the north tonight. The high retreats to the northeast
Sunday, with a weak wave of low pressure passing to the south.

VFR.

Winds will be NNE around 10 kt this morning with occasional
G15-20kt, but mainly at the coastal terminals. Winds should
weaken and lose any gusts after 16Z. NE winds then become more E
in the afternoon, possibly SE at some of the coastal terminals.
It looks like there could be cutoff across the NYC terminals
with winds varying from ESE to ENE.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds during the afternoon into early evening hours could vary
between ENE and ESE at less than 10 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR likely in AM. MVFR or lower possible with chance of
rain in the afternoon and evening. Best chance for rain will be
at the NYC metro and coastal terminals. ENE winds G15-18kt in
the morning.

Monday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt in the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend, however
there could be occasional gusts to 25kt on the ocean waters today
and Sunday. Thinking is that widespread SCA gusts across any of the
zones won`t prevail for a long enough time to warrant an advisory.
There could be more widespread instances of 25kt+ gusts on Sunday,
and with an easterly winds, perhaps most of each of the ocean zones
could see 5 ft waves. Being it`s a 3rd period forecast, there`s time
to hold off on a SCA issuance and see how models trend.

What appears to be a more certain SCA event is late day Monday
through Monday night with a decent shot of cold air advection.
Bumped up gusts during this period from NBM as it often is too low
with the spread between sustained speeds and gusts in a setup such
as this one. After potential lingering gusts early Tuesday, a weak
pressure gradient promotes sub-advisory conditions for the rest of
the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC