What's Happening In Newington

713
FXUS61 KOKX 141816
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
216 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory on the ocean has been extended thru
the day from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday, mainly each
afternoon.

3) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to slightly
below normal Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A large upper level ridge over the East Coast and Western Atlantic
is providing for surface temperatures that are and will continue to
be well above normal through Friday. High pressure to the southeast
is allowing for a generally SW flow advecting in a warmer airmass
that sits over the area this week.

Given the generally ample sunshine expected today through Thursday,
temperatures  quickly rise each morning with overall highs in the
80s expected. Some locations in and around NE NJ and perhaps the NYC
metro may approach 90 degrees each afternoon into Thursday. Highs
closer to the coast will be a bit cooler, generally in the 70s, but
uncertainty in temperatures along the coast remains a bit higher
than normal as temperatures may exceed current forecast highs
depending on subtle shifts in wind direction and speed due to a cold
ocean.

Temperatures generally begin to moderate a bit by Friday given more
cloud cover with highs in the 70s and then even moreso into the
weekend with highs in the 60s.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A stationary front well north of the area will generally the focus
of several weak mid-level disturbances to push east over the next
several days. This should be the main forcing mechanism for any
shower and thunderstorm development. Each day, any showers or
thunderstorms that develop to the north and west may approach the
area into the later afternoon and evening, though uncertainty as to
the coverage remains fairly high, despite a fair amount of
instability for inland areas. The main threats for any thunderstorms
are heavy rainfall but strong to damaging wind gusts remain possible
as well, mainly today and Wednesday.

As the front sags a bit further south late Thursday into Friday,
more showery activity is expected rather than thunderstorms, though
an embedded storm can`t be ruled out.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during
Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is
for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany
the passage, with a chance of thunder as well. After a prolonged
period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will
return temperatures to several degrees below normal Sunday night
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Offshore high pressure will remain south of the terminals through
the TAF period. Weak low pressure will move across upstate New York
and New England late this afternoon into this evening, bringing a
front closer to the area.

Mainly VFR through this evening. A late afternoon/evening shower or
thunderstorm will be possible. The best chances for thunder will be
at KSWF, with just a shower at KHPN, the NYC terminals and possibly
KBDR. Will leave out of the KISP and KGON TAF where confidence is
low. Can not rule out a brief period of MVFR vsbys early Wednesday
morning as some patchy fog may develop. Another round of
showers/thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon, once
again with the best chances north of NYC.

South winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon. Winds
diminish to 10kt or less with more of a SW-W flow. Some of the
terminals may even see wind go light and variable. Winds become S
once again on Wednesday 10-15kt in the afternoon. Some gusts to near
20kt will also be possible.

LLWS possible at KGON tonight, with WSW flow 40 kt at FL020.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of a shower reaching the NYC terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday through Friday: Mainly VFR, with chance of afternoon and
evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with
brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gust 15-20kt each
afternoon Wed-Thu as well.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Easterly winds around 10kt.

Sunday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms, with MVFR conditions
possible. S-SW winds 5-15kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories that were in effect have been cancelled as
wave heights have fallen below 5 feet. There may an occasional gust
near 25 kt or a wave height near 5 feet into this evening but it
will be short lived. Otherwise sub-SCA conditions expected on all
the waters through Sunday.

With the passage of a strong cold front Sunday, and
high pressure building in from the west, westerly winds and gusts
increase Sunday night, with SCA conditions developing on the ocean
waters out to 20 nm but late Sunday night, and continuing into
Monday. During Monday west to northwest gusts may reach advisory
levels across the non ocean waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 88/1960
KBDR: 81/1960
KNYC: 87/1941
KLGA: 86/1941
KJFK: 80/2006
KISP: 78/2024

Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Tue, April 14:
KEWR: 62/2014
KBDR: 54/2023
KNYC: 70/2023
KLGA: 67/2023
KJFK: 55/2023
KISP: 54/2022

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 60/2023
KBDR: 53/2012
KNYC: 67/1941
KLGA: 64/1941
KJFK: 58/1960
KISP: 56/2023

Thu, April 16:
KEWR: 64/2002
KBDR: 53/2002
KNYC: 69/2002
KLGA: 68/2002
KJFK: 57/2002
KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17:
KEWR: 68/2002
KBDR: 57/2002
KNYC: 74/2002
KLGA: 73/2002
KJFK: 60/2002
KISP: 61/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MET/MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/MW