What's Happening In Newington

917
FXUS61 KOKX 021852
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
252 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost advisory issued for areas well N&W of NYC tonight.

SPS issued for elevated risk of fire spread across portions of
the region on Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lingering showers across E LI/S CT this afternoon, sliding
offshore tonight. Frost conditions for areas well N&W of NYC
tonight.

2) Elevated risk of fire spread across portions of the region on
Sunday.

3) Moderating temps for Monday, rising to 10 to 15 degrees above
seasonable on Tuesday.

4) A slow-moving, strong frontal system will bring potential
for periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms late
Wednesday into Thursday Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A weak cold front remains stalled across eastern LI/S CT this
afternoon, gradually dissipating tonight. This will act as a
focus for lingering shower activity through the remainder of
the afternoon ahead of approaching shortwave and RRQ jet lift.
The back edge of rainfall will slowly push east of SE CT and E
LI tonight.

Only light additional amounts of rain expected with limited
moisture and lacking instability, basin average of 1/10th of an
inch or less, with the highest amounts for far eastern areas.

Intensifying low pressure tracks well SE of the area tonight,
gradually dissipating the front and shifting rain chances
farther east and offshore overnight.

Gradual drying and clearing conditions overnight, with NW winds
picking up for urban and coastal areas late. Decent agreement on a
window for radiational cooling across areas well N&W of NYC tonight,
which should allow for temps to dip into the mid 30s, and promote
frost formation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be damaged or killed
if left uncovered. Elsewhere lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of drying fine fuels, northwest wind gusts
between 25 and 30 mph, and relative humidity values between 25
and 35 percent will contribute to an elevated risk of fire
spread late Sunday morning into early Sunday evening for the
Lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long Island. This
forecast considers meteorological, fuel, and land conditions and
has been developed in coordination with state fire and land
management officials.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Northern stream trough slides offshore Monday, with zonal flow
aloft. This will allow high pressure to build south and then
offshore of the areas Monday into Tuesday, with a deep and gusty
SW flow advecting in a progressively warmer airmass. High temps
should moderate into the upper 60s to lower 70s areawide for
Monday.

850 hpa temps rise to 11 to 13C on Tuesday, which should
allow temps to rise well into the 70s to lower 80s for NYC metro
and interior for Tuesday, while a more backed S/SW flow keeps
south coastal areas in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Models in good agreement with closed SW US upper low phasing
with broad northern stream trough across north Central US early
to mid week. This will likely dig and deepen into a -(2 to
3) STD Central US/Mid Mississippi river valley 500hpa trough by
midweek, which gradually sliding to the east coast late week.

At the surface, this will result in a slow moving frontal
system (with a series of low pressure waves along it) sliding
towards the area mid to late week. This will likely bring periods
of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms Wed aft into Thu
Night. Potential for a period of heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms Wed Night into Thu Night in response to deep
layered lift of +(2 to 3) STD PWATS (and weakly unstable
airmass) ahead of negatively tilting trough axis with moisture
convergence ahead/along of primary low pressure development.

Ensemble probabilities of 1" of precip in 24hr are low at this
point, but based on synoptic set-up and potential slow
progress of front the potential is there for these probs to
trend upwards. This is reinforced by the 00z CSU-MLP run
indicating a marginal probability of severe tstms and excessive
rainfall. More details as we progress through the mid week
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR except KGON where showers and -RA continue this afternoon.

Winds eventually switch to more W-NW flow with occasional gusts
to 15-20 kt possible. There could be variation in wind
direction for today with sea breeze influence at least at JFK.
Winds subside overnight, and become NW and gusty again Sunday.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

KJFK sea breeze remains uncertain, timing could be a few hours
off from TAF. Wind direction may fluctuate between NW and S-SW
this afternoon.

Early evening sea breeze possible for KLGA.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. NW flow 10-15 kt. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Peak gusts to
30 kt possible.

Monday: VFR. SW flow 10-15 kt. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. S-SW flow 10-15 kt. Possible rain showers
mainly north and west of NYC terminals at night. SW wind gusts 20-25
kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers, possible
thunderstorms. S-SW flow 10-15 kt. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers, possible
thunderstorms. S-SW flow 15-20 kt. SW wind gusts 25-30 kt.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels thru this evening,
under a weak pressure gradient. Strong low pressure heading
towards the Canadian Maritimes late tonight into Sunday will
bring marginal W/NW SCA gusts to the nearshore waters during the
day, with marginal ocean seas from a combo of 2-3ft easterly
swells and westerly wind wave.

Marginal S SCA winds develops on Mon with increased chances for
SCA seas on the ocean waters. SCA conditions expected on the
ocean (likely all nearshore waters as well) Tuesday through
Thursday with strengthening and persistent SW winds ahead of
an approaching frontal system. Potential for periods of low-
end gales Tue aft through Thu.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     CTZ005-006.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...NV