What's Happening In Newington

947
FXUS61 KOKX 022336
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
636 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is increasing in another shot of frigid air for this
weekend with potential for cold weather headlines.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry and cold thru Thursday.

2) An Arctic front will bring a chance for light snow on Friday,
and another shot of frigid air for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Temps have been on the milder side today, with Central Park just
having surpassed 32 as of 1 PM. Fcst daytime temps through the
near term should be somewhat milder than NBM is forecasting,
with highs in the mid/upper 30s in most places on Tue, and 30-35
on Wed. There could be some flurries or light snow mainly across
the NYC metro area and Long Island Tue night with an upper
trough passing through. Worst case scenario still looks like a
dusting of accumulation.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Guidance continues to agree on a low dropping down from Canada
sometime on Friday and passing well to our north as it drags a
cold front through the area Friday night. A very cold air mass
will build in behind this front characterized by 850mb temps
around -20C and dewpoints below 0F.

In terms of sensible weather, some light snow will be possible mainly
late Friday into Friday night. Snow at first will likely be more
light in a warm advection regime and then potentially become
showery or squall like with the passing of the cold front.
Details on snow squall activity will become clearer later this
week. It is too early for snow accumulation forecasts but
moisture is very limited with this system. NBM QPF mean for
Friday and Saturday is under a tenth of an inch for the entire
area. While snow ratios will likely be higher than 10:1, this
looks like a sub-advisory event.

What will end up being more impactful will be the cold air
combined with strong winds. As the surface low heads east it
looks to deepen to 980 mb or even lower. To our west, a 1030+ mb
high builds in. This will create a strong pressure gradient
over the area and lead to potential Wind Advisory criteria for
Saturday. Additionally, there is potential for Cold Weather
headlines Friday night, Saturday night and Sunday night with
Saturday night looking like the coldest. Current wind chill
forecast of -10F to around -18F across the area for Saturday
night is just below Extreme Cold Warning criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR as high pressure gradually builds in from the west through
tonight.

NW winds 10-15 kt gradually diminishing this evening. WHile
gusts have largely ended, an occasional gust to 25 kt is
possible through about 3Z. Sustained winds fall below 10 kt
overnight. Winds back to the W Tuesday morning then eventually
SW by early afternoon, remaining at or below 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction may average close to 310 magnetic at times
through this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Very low chance of MVFR and light snow
showers Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow. WNW gusts
25-30 kt Friday night.

Saturday: VFR. NW winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NW winds continue to diminish. SCA remains in effect for the
ocean waters as seas gradually subside from 4-7 ft through
tonight.

An Arctic front will bring strengthening winds and building seas
on Friday, with gales possible Friday night through Saturday.
Freezing spray could be moderate to heavy at times this
weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/JT
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...Goodman/JT