What's Happening In Newington

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FXUS61 KOKX 271741
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
141 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry with near normal temperatures through mid-week.

2) A widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday night into
Thursday, with a cooler pattern then in place through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Offshore low pressure will slowly drift east today, allowing
high pressure to nose in from the north through early Tuesday.

A cold front approaches late on Tuesday, but runs into ridging
aloft, so not looking for too much in the way of rain Tuesday
night, with just a slight chance of showers across NE NJ, and
the Lower Hudson Valley.

With heights building aloft, warmer temperatures are expected,
but they are expected to be near normal, generally in the 60s.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Global dynamical and AI-based ensemble systems continue to
advertise anomalously low H5 heights over the East late this
week, with stubborn troughing thanks to strong blocking setting
up between the Canadian Maritimes and Greenland. The strength
and placement of these features will help drive the sensible
weather locally through the weekend.

Ahead of this, an advancing frontal system leads the incoming
trough, with shortwave energy rounding the trough helping to
instigate a surface wave of low pressure along the boundary.
This will bring a widespread rainfall as the system passes
through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with potential
for the rain to linger later into the day. QPF has trended
upwards since the last forecast update, now looking to average
around one inch through Thursday, with NBM V5 90th percentile
around 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Hydrological concerns appear minimal,
and should largely prove beneficial with NYC, NE NJ, and the
LoHud Valley in moderate drought.

Thereafter, still some uncertainty with additional chances for
rain into the weekend, but for now, increasing confidence in
cooler than normal conditions late this week into early next,
with daytime highs mid to late week largely in the 50s and low
60s, and chances for wet weather at times, though a washout
appears unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control through Tuesday morning, then
gradually weakening and moving offshore Tuesday afternoon.

Light and variable to light east flow early becomes SE to around
10kt during the afternoon, with a sea breeze already through
KJFK, and a late day sea possible at KISP, KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB.
Winds become light and variable at all terminals this evening,
with a SE flow under 10 kt developing Tuesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A late day sea breeze, 21Z to 23Z, is possible at KEWR, KTEB,
and KLGA.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, MVFR possible late in the day west with
a chance of showers.

Wednesday Night-Thursday: MVFR to IFR, possibly lower, with
showers, tapering off late Thursday. Slight chance of thunder
Wednesday night. NW gusts 15-20 kt late Thursday.

Friday: VFR. WNW gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in place for ocean waters through
Tuesday due to a lingering 5ft swell from an offshore low. This may
continue into Tuesday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on Wednesday. Winds and seas
may return to SCA levels on Thursday and remain so into Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC/BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR