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783
FXUS61 KOKX 250134
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
934 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal flood advisories added for rest of coastline not in the
coastal flood watch for Friday night into early Saturday.
Coastal flood statements added for parts of the coastline for
early Friday. Otherwise, no other changes from previous
forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An early season nor`easter will bring a prolonged period of gusty
winds and rainfall. A Wind Advisory has been issued.

2) Coastal flooding impacts expected through early
weekend. Greatest impacts expected Friday night through
Saturday.

3) High surf and rip current risk through at least Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An early season nor`easter will bring a prolonged period of gusty
winds and rainfall.

Current surface analysis shows a weak low beginning to develop off
the mid Atlantic coast along a stalled frontal boundary. This is
expected to strengthen and deepen over the next day as it tracks up
the east coast towards our area. AN upper low will develop with the
system just to the north of the low`s center at the surface.
This upper-low will sort of get trapped across the New England
into the beginning of next week. This is one of the reason model
guidance has been very wobbly on the exact track of the low.

The good news is, in the past 24 hours, the latest guidance has
come into better agreement on an exact track. For now,
confidence has increase to moderate on exact impacts and track
of the nor`easter. But keep in mind, some changes can still be
expected. For now, here`s the most likely scenario.

The nor`easter will track right to or just west of the 40N/70W
benchmark Friday night/Saturday, then retrograde towards the area on
Sunday. The nor`easter will deepen Friday night into Saturday, then
gradually weaken on Sunday. By Monday and Tuesday, it should begin
to move out and northeast of the area.

Spotty light rainfall could begin in eastern portions of the
area midday to Friday afternoon then Friday evening in western
portions of the area. Then, periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall are possible Friday night through Saturday night.
Rainfall will taper through Sunday and eventually end southwest
to northeast through the day on Monday.

Rainfall rates could peak around 1"/hr, but mostly should stay under
0.5"/hr. Total rainfall Friday through Sunday looks to be 3-5"
across Long Island and S CT. Elsewhere, closer to 1-3". The
lowest rainfall totals will be in the lower Hudson Valley. The
highest axis of rainfall could shift west or east if the track
of the nor`easter shifts west or east. There is still some
chance for this. However, much of the rainfall will fall over a
24-36 hour period, so most flash flood concerns should remain
localized. But the areas of greatest are currently Long Island
into much of S/SE CT where the highest totals are expected. This
is also the area where WPC has highlighted in a Slight (2/4)
risk for excessive rainfall. West of this, much of the area is
still in a Marginal (1/4) risk for excessive rainfall.

The nor`easter will also bring strong winds. NE/N winds will
gradually increase Friday morning and afternoon under an increasing
pressure gradient from the deepening low. Peak winds will be Friday
night through Saturday night. Then, winds will gradually diminish
through Sunday into Sunday night as the nor`easter weakens over or
near the area. Peak wind speeds will be 20-25 mph with higher
localized speeds around 35 mph. Wind gusts will peak around 40-50
mph with localized higher gusts nearing 55 mph. The localized
highest gusts are currently most likely to occur on the eastern
end of Long Island or at immediate south shorelines of Long
Island. NE wind directions are expected Friday, becoming N on
Saturday into a portion of Sunday. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for Long Island, NYC, S Westchester and most of S CT. The
advisory is in effect 2 pm Friday to 6 am Sunday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Coastal flooding tonight through Saturday morning around times of
high tide.

For tonight and early Friday, there is some minor coastal flooding
expected around times of high tide within Lower NY Harbor shorelines
and South Shore Bays of Long Island. Other shorelines likely fall
below minor coast flood benchmarks.

Worst of coastal flooding looks to be Friday night and Saturday
morning. Saturday is full moon and when astronomical levels will be
highest, and therefore when least amount of surge is needed for
coastal flooding. Surge is expected to be near maximum within
this timeframe from the nor`easter.

Areas of most concern include all of Long Island and southern
portions of NYC. These locations are in the coastal flood watch for
late Friday into early Saturday. Southern shorelines of NYC and Long
Island have relatively earlier high tides early Friday evening and
earlier high tides early Saturday. These locations within the surge
are showing increasing potential of reaching moderate coastal
flooding with some locations in South Shore Bays of Long Island
showing increasing potential for major coastal flooding.

For the northern shorelines of Nassau and Suffolk, these locations
also show increasing potential for moderate coastal flooding Friday
night and early Saturday.

Elsewhere along the coast and for some tidally effected rivers
nearby in Northeast NJ, Friday night into early Saturday, water
levels are expected to be more in the minor coastal flooding
range. Coastal flood advisories are in effect for these areas.
Some localized moderate coastal flooding will be possible.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
High risk of rip currents and high surf through Saturday along
ocean shorelines. While ocean swells in outer ocean reach near
13 to 16 ft, surf height of near 7 to 11 ft expected closer to
shore. There will be some variation due to swell orientation,
with occasionally more ENE vs more ESE swell direction. The lack
of orthogonal component to shoreline really limits the surf
heights closer to the shore.

However, with current buoy observations running higher than
Wavewatch by a few feet, felt wave heights are already within
advisory range within the surf zone. Beach flooding and erosion
can be expected Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deepening offshore low will slowly approach from the south and
east into the weekend. The low will bring a prolonged period
of strong N/NE winds and periods of rain.

Mainly VFR through Friday with a chance of MVFR conditions
developing in rain from late afternoon into the evening. The
eastern terminals will have the best chance to see rain and
sub-VFR conditions during this time.

NE winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt tonight, strongest at the
coastal terminals. Some of the terminals, especially inland may
not gusts or will gusts will be occasional until late tonight
or after 12Z Friday. Coastal terminals will likely see a gradual
increase after 06Z, continuing to ramp up through the day
Friday, increasing to 15 to 25kt with G30-40kt by late
afternoon/early evening. Upper end of wind ranges are forecast
at the coastal terminals

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of rain Friday may be earlier than currently forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday PM through Saturday night: Lowering to MVFR in the evening
then MVFR/IFR conds Sat/Sat night in rain as a coastal storm nears
the area. N/NE gusts 30 to 40 kt Friday night into Saturday.
Winds/gusts may be up to 5-10 kt higher than fcst if the storm
is closer to the area. LLWS possible starting Friday evening and
lasting through Saturday.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR in rain. N winds 15-20kt, G25-30kt.

Monday: MVFR, possibly IFR early with a chance of showers, improving
to VFR in the afternoon. N gusts around 20kt in the morning.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A nor`easter will impact waters through Monday before high pressure
moves back into the area thereafter.

Gale Warnings are currently hoisted or will soon be, on all waters.
Ocean and non-ocean. These will run through early Sunday except on
outer ocean waters and the inner eastern ocean zone. Here, the Gale
Warning will be upgraded to a Storm Warning Friday morning through
Sunday morning. Gale Warning areas will see winds up to 35-45 kt and
Storm Warning areas will see wind gusts 48-55 kt. Waves on ocean
waters during this period will peak 15-22 ft on outer ocean waters
and 7-15 ft on inn er ocean waters. LI sound will see waves over 5
ft. SCA conditions should continue on all waters into Sunday then on
ocean waters into Sunday night. By Monday, all waters should drop
below SCA criteria.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     CTZ007>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 3 PM EDT Saturday
     for CTZ009>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 3 PM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ071-073-176.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ072.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ074-075-080-081-178-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ078-079-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Friday for NYZ080-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday
     for NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-
     332-335-340-345.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ338.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-380-383-385.
     Storm Warning from 6 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-
     380-383-385.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/BR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/BR