What's Happening In Newington

755
FXUS61 KOKX 071236
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
836 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat for heavy rainfall has ended with only light rain
possible at times today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Intermittent light rain possible today, becoming dry this
evening into tonight.

2) Temperatures will trend upwards this week with highs returning to
the 90s by Friday.

3) A frontal system will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

4) Chances for both heat and rainfall continue into the weekend,
though an exact outcome remains uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Wave of low pressure on a stalled front to the southeast will
gradually shift away from the region this evening. High pressure
ridging down from the NE around the low will hold onto the
overrunning pattern in place, with intermittent light rain and
overcast/low clouds through much of the day. As the system
shifts east late in the day, gradual improvement is expected
with dry conditions returning. Clouds will then clear overnight
into early Wednesday.

The rain today will be light and the threat for heavy rain has
ended.

The clouds and NE-E flow will hold temperatures down and may
struggle to reach the low 70s degrees near the coast. Otherwise,
most spots will stay in the 60s. If there is some thinning of
the clouds are breaks late, then temps could briefly reach the
lower-mid 70s, but this is not looking likely.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure at the surface in addition to ridging aloft build in
from the west tonight into tomorrow. They remain in place through
Thursday, possibly Friday. This leads to a warming trend each day
with highs returning to the 90s by Friday. The heat index could
enter the low 90s on Thursday then the upper 90s on Friday.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Thursday into Friday, the ridge aloft begins to breakdown which
allows a few shortwaves and eventually a frontal system to pass
through the area with the cold front timed for Friday.

Still anticipating a return to the 90s by Friday, but showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday and Friday afternoon.
Better synoptic forcing and frontal lift increases confidence in
showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Guidance indicates both days
could have PWATs exceeding 2 inches.


.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Guidance varies on an outcome for the weekend. A longwave trough
could lead to additional showers and storms over the weekend.
Conversely, the trough may remain in Canada, in which case, heat
would be more of a concern.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A wave of low pressure slowly travels along a front located
south of the region today.

IFR or lower conditions are expected through much if not all of
the TAF period, except MVFR cigs may return after 18z to the
NYC terminals. Any lingering precipitation today should be
light.

NNE-NE winds are expected through the TAF period around 10kt or
so. Also, some gusts to near 25 kt remain possible along the
coast.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of MVFR cigs at the NYC terminals may occur later than
forecast.

Fluctuation between categories is possible at times. Amendments
may be needed.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
An SCA remains on the ocean today due to elevated seas. Seas
should subside below 5 ft early this afternoon, except east of
Moriches Inlet where seas may remain 5-7 ft through tonight.

Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are then expected for the
remainder of the period.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists today into
Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ345-
     353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR/DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR/DS