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851
FXUS61 KOKX 310828
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
428 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled tonight through Thursday as a frontal boundary
remains in close proximity, interacting with impulses in the
westerlies.

2) Drier and cooler for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Expect mainly dry conditions today as a weak cold front continues
to work south of the area into the northern Mid Atlantic region.
However, this will be short-lived as the forecast area will reside
at the southern edge of the westerlies through the upcoming week.
The aforementioned cold front will return northward tonight with
widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms overspreading
the area from west to east. PW values will range from 1.5 to
2.0" with weak instability. So moderate to heavy showers will be
possible, but a storm motion from the west around 20 kt should
limit the flood threat. WPC does have the area under a marginal
risk for excessive flooding (isolated flash flooding). Consensus
places the heaviest rain across the interior. There are some
differences with the location of the heaviest rain axis, with
the NAM12 being an outlier, keeping the axis across NE NJ/Lower
Hudson Valley down into NYC. Regardless, rainfall amounts
generally look to fall below an inch through Tuesday morning.

Warm advection weakens and showers likely diminish in coverage
during the morning hours Tuesday. The forecast becomes a little
more uncertain for the remainder of Tuesday. The area becomes
warm sectored to start the day, but strengthening high pressure
across eastern Canada into New England will send the front back
to the south and west as a backdoor cold front. This will allow
for a warm day, with increasing instability, especially from NYC
and points north and west. The combination of moderate to high
instability with around 40kt of deep-layer shear raises the
concern for severe weather. SPC has a marginal risk across much
of the area, expect for SE CT. The slight risk grazes western
zones in NJ and Orange County in NY. CAMs at this time are not
showing much coverage. This will likely hinge on the timing of
the backdoor cold front and how much the airmass can destabilize.

For Wednesday, while showers are likely, much of the area will
be under a more stable easterly flow. This will may limit the
coverage of any strong/severe convection to the west of the
area. This could be a close call for areas from NYC and points
north and west.

Additional showers and thunderstorms area likely Wednesday
night into Thursday as the warm front lifts through and a cold
frontal passage follows Thursday night. With decent deep-layer
shear and increasing instability, the threat of strong to
severe convection will continue. During this time, heavy
rainfall will be concern as well with PW values around 2
inches. However, it`s too early to be specific with the
details and is well outside of the CAMs.

On a final note, it will not be raining the entire time for the
entire forecast region.

It will generally be warm and humid during this time. The
warmest days will be Tuesday and Thursday with temperatures a
few degrees above normal. An easterly flow today and Wednesday
along with varying cloud cover will keep readings mainly in the
70s to around 80.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Drier and cooler air filters in for the weekend following a cold
frontal passage Thursday night. An amplifying upper trough
dropping across eastern Canada and the Northeast Friday into
Saturday could spark an isolated shower.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A quasi-stationary front lingers over the region through the TAF
period.

VFR through today. MVFR likely tonight with showers. Occasional
IFR is possible, but not included in TAFs due to lower
probabilities.

Winds light through the entire TAF period. Light and variable
this morning at some outlying terminals. Otherwise, N 5-8 kt.
Again, 5-8 kt by the afternoon from the S/SSE. Occasionally
going variable. Tonight, winds primarily light and variable or 5
kt from the SW.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There is a slight chance of light showers this afternoon.
Chances are too low to include in TAFs, but amendments could be
needed. Should they occur, conditions would likely remain VFR.

Given light flow, winds could often go variable today. TAFs
reflect the most likely directions in 5+ kt flow. Directions
will also depend on the placement of a quasi- stationary frontal
boundary draped across the region.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with showers likely.
A chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with chances of showers.
Showers likely early.

Friday: Mainly VFR. A period of MVFR or lower possible in possible
SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient across the waters into this week is not
expected to be that steep. Winds will be strongest Tuesday night
into Wednesday in an easterly flow of 10-15kt G25-20kt.

Rip Currents:

The risk returns to low for today Tuesday as the flow lightens
and swells fall to around 2 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DW