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644
FXUS61 KOKX 140016
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
816 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably warm conditions Wednesday will be followed by a
cold front Wednesday evening bringing lower humidity and more
seasonable conditions to end the week.

2) A strong cold front will bring showers Thursday night into
Friday, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon.
Impacts, if any, are expected to be minimal.

3) The coldest air mass of the season so far moves in this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

A back door cold front nearby will lift north as a warm front
tonight. A weak shortwave passes through overnight, but not
anticipating any precipitation within our area. There could be
a passing shower just to our northeast, closer to more
organized forcing/convergence.

A westerly flow sets up on Wednesday with the warm front to
the north and a trailing cold front approaching from northwest.
The westerly flow will aid in deeper mixing and much warmer
temperatures. The MAV guidance continues to be the warmest and
have blended these readings into the NBM to raise highs a few
degrees along the coast and into the NYC metro. Forecast highs
range from the upper 70s inland, lower 80s in the NYC metro and
NE NJ, and upper 70s to around 80 for Long Island and coastal
CT. Sea breezes should be held off except for the immediate
coast due to the stronger westerly flow. The immediate coast
will likely see cooler temperatures in the afternoon if the sea
breezes develop. There may be some slight increase in cloud
cover in the afternoon as the cold front approaches, but they
should have minimal impact on temperatures. The expectation is
for conditions to warm quickly in the morning/early afternoon.
Record highs are not forecast at this time, but some of the
usual warmer locations could come close if the higher
temperatures are observed. See climate section below for
current records for October 14.

Probabilities for showers with the cold front are low and
remain below 15 percent. However, an isolated, brief shower
cannot be completely ruled out as the cold front passes across
the area late in the afternoon/early evening.

Cooler, more seasonable temperatures, and lower humidity follows
the cold front as high pressure builds in from the north on
Thursday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next frontal system quickly approaches Thursday night. The
associated warm front moves across the area late Thursday
night/early Friday. Showers will accompany the warm front, which
should last into a portion of Friday morning. The showers
should end with the likelihood of a lull until the cold front
crosses the area. Current consensus of the guidance has the cold
front moving through the region in the late afternoon and early
evening. The region should lie in the warm sector briefly, with
a marginal increase in instability. A few thunderstorms could
accompany the cold front passage. This setup resembles past
situations where the strong cold front is accompanied by a
narrow band of showers and a few thunderstorms. It is still a
bit early to determine if there is any severe threat due to
uncertainty in destabilization. The flow is fast moving and the
showers in the morning should be mostly stratiform. The showers
with the cold front could briefly be heavy, but with the fast
flow, will not last over a given location for a long time.
Average rainfall amounts range from one quarter to one half
inch. Gusty SW winds, 25-35 mph, are also forecast ahead of the
cold front. Impacts on Friday, if any, are to expected to be
minimal.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...

The coldest air mass since late April settles in to start the
weekend.

Behind the fropa Friday night, a sprawling surface high builds
east from the Plains, and the tightened pressure gradient
between the departing area of low pressure to the north will
lead to blustery NW winds and strong CAA. H850 temps plummet
from the mid teens Friday afternoon to around -6C by Saturday.
Temperatures Saturday afternoon struggle to get into the lower
50s along the coast, and upper 40s inland, or around 10 to 15
degrees below climatology for mid October. The gusty NW winds
25-35 mph, will add to the chill, with apparent temperatures
likely in the 30s through the day.

Actual air temps then fall into the 30s Saturday night, with
lower 40s in the urban NYC metro. The coldest locales of
interior S CT and the LoHud Valley likely fall to around or
just below the freezing mark. Saturday will the be the cooler
day of the weekend, with a gradual rebound in temperatures then
expected through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm front moves northeast of the region this evening with a cold
front approaching thereafter into Wednesday. The cold front moves
across Wednesday evening.

For KGON and KISP, lingering MVFR stratus this evening will
eventually scatter out with possible brief IFR stratus.
Otherwise, VFR TAF period is expected for all terminals.

Regarding winds, initially a general S-SW flow near 5-10 kts
will become light and variable for some terminals tonight. The
winds then become more westerly on Wednesday and then more
northwesterly late in the TAF period by Wednesday evening.

There is a possibility for low level wind shear tonight but it
will be marginal with SW winds near 40 kt at 2kft AGL just for
a few hours around start of overnight period.

Wind speeds on Wednesday will be near 10-12 kt. Gusts to near
20 kt are forecast late Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low level wind shear possible late tonight, near 4-7Z with 40 kt
SW winds at 2kft AGL.

Timing of wind gusts could vary a few hours from TAF Wednesday.

A few brief rain showers possible Wednesday along and ahead of the
cold front but not enough confidence to put in TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR. Possible NW wind gusts to near 20 kt in the
evening.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night: Showers move in late at night. VFR trends to MVFR or
lower at times.

Friday: Showers. Isolated thunderstorms. MVFR or lower at times.
Southerly wind gusts near 20-25 kt. Potential peak gusts near 30-35
kt.

Friday night: Showers tapering off late. Mainly MVFR or lower at
times. NW wind gusts near 30 kt. Potential peak gusts near 35 to 40
kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 25-35 kt. Potential peak gusts
near 40 kt.

Saturday night: VFR. NW wind gusts decrease to near 20 kt in the
evening, and then diminish altogether overnight.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions develop this evening on the ocean waters with
gusts to 25 kt and seas around 5 ft. SCA conditions with gusts
up to 25 kt are also expected on the Great South Bay tonight.
Winds and seas subside early Wednesday, but 5 ft seas could
linger east of Moriches Inlet for much of the morning.
Conditions will then remain below SCA levels Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday night.

Increasing S winds Friday will bring a return to SCA conditions
on all waters. There is then potential for gales on all waters
Friday night into Saturday behind a cold front passage. Will
mention this potential in the HWO. Winds will start weakening
late Saturday into Saturday night with a return to sub SCA
conditions on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

October 14:
KEWR: 85/1975
KBDR: 80/1990
KNYC: 84/1920
KLGA: 82/1975
KJFK: 82/1990
KISP: 81/1990

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR/DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS