What's Happening In Newington

259
FXUS61 KOKX 270712
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
212 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm pulls away early this morning. High pressure
then briefly returns before a strong frontal system impacts the
area late Sunday through Monday. The region will then remain
between high pressure to the southwest and strong low pressure
over southeast Canada Tuesday into Wednesday. A clipper low may
track nearby next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Winter storm impacts continue as snow tapers west to east early
  this morning.

* Winter storm warnings will remain in effect for at least the next
  hour or two until snow tapers.

* Clearing skies and seasonable temperatures for the remainder of
  the day.

* Black ice concerns overnight into early Sunday with refreezing of
  any slush and/or untreated road surfaces with low temperatures in
  the teens and lower 20s.

The winter storm and snowfall is winding down this morning with a
solid 5-8" across much of CT and eastern LI, with lower amounts to
the west and south. A shortwave heads over the area combined with
decreasing mid level warm advection will keep any additional
show showers light through about 12Z. An additional 1 or 2
inches cannot be ruled out especially across CT and eastern LI.
Upper level ridging will slowly work in closer to 12z and into
the morning with light snow/flurries continuing through mid
morning with little to no additional accumulations after 12Z.

Clearing does start to take place late in the day from the north.
With the fresh snowpack, temperatures likely struggle to rise above
freezing on Saturday. Temperatures Saturday night drop into the
teens under clear skies and light winds, introducing the
potential for black ice development on area roadways, bridges,
and any untreated surfaces.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A strong frontal system begins to impact the area late Sunday into
Sunday night. Temperatures will be below freezing in the interior
prior to a warm front passing, with a cold air damming
signature as the interior sits on the eastern side of a sfc
high. A warm front approaches from the west by Sunday afternoon
and a period of freezing rain/drizzle looks more probable for
interior parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT, in
particular. Ice accretions at this point look light less than
about 0.1" across those areas. As the front approaches,
temperatures warm up enough to see a transition to all rain.
There is still some variablity around just how much of this ice
could accumulate before temperatures rise above freezing. Most
of the the CWA will start and remain rain Sunday evening into
early Monday, with about 0.25" - 0.50" of precipitation
expected.

Gusty winds develop behind the cold front late Monday through
Tuesday, with potential of gusts approaching or exceeding 35-40
mph under deep NW flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:


* Mild temperatures on Monday (Upper 40s to lower 50s) will
  trend much colder for the rest of the week with highs in the
  lower to mid 30s, potentially not rising above freezing on
  Tuesday and then again at the end of the week.

The larger scale pattern after the cold front passage favors upper
troughing over the eastern US which will help keep colder air in
place to start 2026. Dry conditions are currently forecast. There is
a chance of a clipper system passing sometime late week, but the
latest model consensus keeps conditions dry at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure center passes offshore to the south Saturday morning,
with high pressure building Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Snow with variable levels of intensity through 09z for the city and
coastal terminals. LIFR and IFR prevails and most terminals, with
VLIFR lingering at times for a few of the eastern most terminals
like KISP and KGON for another 1-2 hours. Otherwise gradual
improvement to MVFR towards and after 12 Sat. VFR likely towards and
after 18z Sat, potentially slightly earlier across northern
terminals.

The winds mainly E and ENE, gradually backing more NE and increasing
to 12-15kt by the morning push. Some occasional gusts to around 20kt
for the city and coastal terminals possible in the morning. NE-N
winds for Saturday diminishing in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for timing of changing flight categories through
Saturday morning.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: VFR with light N winds.

Sunday: VFR during the day. IFR and rain at night, possibly starting
as a wintry mix north of the city terminals in the evening.

Monday: IFR with rain/showers, Improving to VFR late day/early
evening. SW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-30kt.

Wednesday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions return on ocean waters as seas reach 5 ft under
a gusty 25 kt flow early this morning. Conditions then fall
below SCA- levels by the evening. Sub-SCA conditions are then
expected Saturday night through Sunday night.

SCA conditions are likely on Monday on all waters ahead of a cold
front passage. Gales are becoming increasingly likely on all waters
Monday night through Tuesday night. Conditions begin to improve into
midweek, but SCA conditions may linger through much of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through mid next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 10 PM EST
     this evening for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...DBR/DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DBR
HYDROLOGY...DBR