What's Happening In Newington

842
FXUS61 KOKX 110939
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
439 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter weather advisories have ended. An SPS is in effect for
the whole area until 9am for the potential for icy surfaces.

Probabilities have trended lower for the late Sunday into Monday
potential storm event.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Precipitation has moved out of the area this morning with all
advisories cancelled.

2) A weak shortwave could set of a light snow shower or flurry
Friday night.

3) Temperatures near to slightly above normal Saturday night through
Tuesday.

4) There is a chance for light rain and/or snow late Sunday through
Monday. Uncertainty remains high, and probabilities have trended
lower.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Precipitation associated with a frontal system has moved east of
the region. However, many areas continue to see surface
temperatures at or slightly below freezing. The residual
moisture from the precipitation combined with the cold surface
temperatures will result in slick and/or icy surfaces. Have gone
ahead and issued an SPS to address this threat. Otherwise, dry
weather is then expected for the rest of today and continue
through Friday. Highs today will reach the middle and upper
30s, with temperatures on Thursday and Friday in the lower and
middle 30s for highs.

Key Message 2...
A weak shortwave will move across the region Friday night. This
quick moving shortwave could set off a few light snow showers or
flurries. Have added a 20 POP to account for this.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
After a prolonged period of temperatures well below normal,
temperatures will be slowly trending back to normal to slightly
above normal from Friday night into the beginning of next week. Lows
will range from the mid teens inland to the mid/upper 20s along the
coast Friday night and Saturday night, and mid 20s to lower 30s
Sunday night and Monday night. Highs will be in the upper 30s/lower
40s Saturday and Sunday, and in the lower/mid 40s Monday and
Tuesday.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
A lot of uncertainty remains with low pressure passing to the
south of the area Sunday into Monday night. NBM probabilities
have trended down with this system, and global models are now
showing that upper ridging will remain across the central US and
into the Great Lakes, and moving into the northeast US Friday
and into the weekend as an upper shortwave moves into the
southwest US and then rides under the ridge across the southern
tier. At the surface a reinforcing high builds out of central
Canada and suppresses the surface low well to the south as the
low reaches the East Coast by late this weekend. The area will
be on the northern edge of the storm, with the chance of light
snow and/or rain. If trends continue there is the possibility
that the area could remain dry through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west today.

VFR. Winds should become WNW less than 10 kt, then increase
toward/after daybreak, becoming WNW-NW with gusts 20-25 kt after
about 14Z. Gusts 25-30 kt likely Wed afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late Wednesday night and Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. WNW winds G15-20kt.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of snow inland and either
snow/rain at the NYC metros/coast at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds shift to more of a westerly direction this morning. As it
does, SCA conditions will then quickly develop by mid morning
on all waters, and continue through the day Thursday. An
occasional gust to gale force is possible for the ocean waters
this afternoon/evening. SCA cond could last into Thu night on
the ocean.

Winds and seas then fall below advisory levels beginning Friday,
and lasting through Sunday night. There is uncertainty with
the track of low pressure passing to the south Sunday night: if
the low tracks a little farther to the north, then wind gusts on
the ocean will be near SCA levels later in the weekend. However,
latest trends have been to keep the low track farther south.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EST
     Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...BC