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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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748 FXUS61 KOKX 030739 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 339 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures gradually warm, with summer like heat Friday into Saturday. 2) Unsettled conditions arriving either late in the day Saturday or Saturday night, and likely lasting into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The long wave trough which was in place pushes off the east coast today, as upper level ridging to the west gradually builds east. This will lead temperatures gradually warming over the next couple of days. Temperatures at 5kft will slowly warm from around 10 C later today, to 14 C by late Thursday. As the ridge axis slides east temperatures warm further aloft and at the surface with 5kft temperatures getting to around 16 C by later in the day Friday. This should eventually get temperatures into the lower half of the 90s for a good portion of the area to close out the week for both Friday and Saturday with night time minimums rising through the week. However, the humidity is expected to remain at very tolerable levels so heat indices are not expected to get above the actual air temperatures which may prevent heat headlines. In any event expect warmer 80s by Thursday, and lower and middle 90s for the metropolitan and inland locations during both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Dew point readings are expected to remain between 55 and 60 on Saturday despite the cold front drawing closer as a SW flow prevails. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Questions remain regarding exactly how long this dry stretch of weather will last through the day Saturday. Some global and AI NWP guidance suggests a lead shortwave ahead of the main upstream trough towards Saturday afternoon, while the some guidance delays the arrival of any shortwave feature(s) until Saturday evening / night. At this point it appears most of the day will remain dry, with increasing chances late in the day and evening with a pre-frontal trough potentially providing a trigger for convection as early as late Saturday afternoon. The relatively higher chance for any convection would be for western most sections, with chances increases further east Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday should feature unsettled conditions with showers and possible thunderstorms around until the cold front moves through. The upper level trough then slows late in the weekend with unsettled conditions as shower chances potentially lingering into Monday. NWP consensus then has ridging off to the west returning afterwards for Monday and Tuesday of next week with another warming trend. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR as a weak sfc trough passes south overnight, followed by high pressure building from the west. N-NNE flow less than 10 kt gives way to sound breezes at or just under 10 kt at KBDR/KGON after 15Z-16Z, then harbor/ocean SE-S sea breezes this afternoon at most other terminals except of course KSWF. Winds diminish this evening and become light SW. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Exact timing of sea breeze onset uncertain and could be an hr sooner than fcst. KLGA should lock on to an ENE sound breeze 5-10 kt during part of the afternoon before a S sea breeze late. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late tonight: VFR. Thursday: VFR with coastal sea breezes. Friday: VFR. Coastal sea breezes for KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. WSW flow G15-20kt in the afternoon elsewhere. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a late day tstm at KSWF. SW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. Saturday night: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm with MVFR or lower cond mainly after after midnight. Sunday: Showers and chance of tstms with MVFR or lower cond, especially in the afternoon. Cold fropa with SW-S winds becoming NE- E at night. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub advisory conditions prevail for much of this week. An exception to this will be for a portion of the western ocean out to 20 nm with a possible Ambrose jet late in the day for both Thursday and Friday. The chances increase for more widespread small craft conditions, particularly for the ocean out to 20 nm for the second half of Saturday with gusts around 25 kt and ocean seas mainly at 4 to 5 ft. Sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail behind a cold front towards late Sunday. Rip Currents: There will remain a low risk of rip currents for today and into the first half of Thursday. However, the rip current risk is expected to increase to a moderate risk by later in the afternoon on Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Friday, June 5 KEWR: 95 (2021) KBDR: 87 (2025) KNYC: 99 (1925) KLGA: 94 (2010) KJFK: 90 (2010) KISP: 88 (2010) Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 97 (2021) KBDR: 93 (2021) KNYC: 98 (1925) KLGA: 95 (2021) KJFK: 90 (1968) KISP: 90 (2021) Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures: Saturday, June 6 KEWR: 71 (2021) KBDR: 67 (2025) KNYC: 77 (1925) KLGA: 76 (2021) KJFK: 69 (2024) KISP: 68 (2024) && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...JE |
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