What's Happening In Newington

900
FXUS61 KOKX 061521
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1121 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A few rain, snow, and sleet showers possible on Tuesday.

2. Temperatures warm to near seasonable levels Thursday,
followed by an increasing probability of above normal
temperatures for later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A shrtwv and associated cold front will pass thru the cwa on
Tue. Timing allows for some sfc based instability to develop,
with the cyclonic flow interacting with the steep lapse rates.
Would expected isold-sct activity in this scenario. Based on the
moisture profile, could see high based low topped convection.
This would be capable of some wind enhancement with any of the
shwrs, along with an isold lightning strike. Cold aloft so
could see snow or ice pellets with the activity, especially nrn
areas, which is also where the best dynamics are.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
No changes to the thinking wrt temps this week, so stuck with
the NBM/WPC numbers.

Previous Discussion: Temperatures will remain below average
through the middle of the week, with the coldest readings on
Wednesday. Highs will only be in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

The high moves offshore Wednesday night into Thursday allowing
for a more moderate airmass to advect into the area toward the
end of the week. Temperature uncertainty increases Thursday,
mainly due to uncertainty around the sfc wind direction. With
water temperatures still quite cold a more southerly or easterly
component to the wind as opposed to a more westerly component
will have a big effect on temperatures. Thus, have stayed with
the NBM temperature guidance through Thursday night. However,
with a cold front that likely washes out with rising heights
just upstream look for the potential for noticeably warmer
temperatures than consensus guidance is currently indicating for
Friday, and on Saturday as well. For now staying close to the
NBM, but there is a higher than average chance for adjustments
going forward in time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A surface trough moves into the area this afternoon, followed
by a weak wave of low pressure late tonight into Tuesday morning.
This latter will potentially bring some rain showers for some
of the terminals.

Mainly a VFR forecast through the TAF period. Terminals north and
east of the NYC terminals have a higher chance of showers late
tonight so a PROB30 group was used for KHPN, KBDR, KGON and
KSWF for the showers as well as MVFR conditions. There could
possibly be a brief mixing with snow for some more northern
terminals such as KSWF, KBDR or KGON.

Steep pressure gradient keeps gusty NW flow into early this
afternoon. The pressure gradient loosens mid to late afternoon,
allowing for more westerly to even some WSW flow but still
gusty. Winds lighten more tonight as cold front enters the
region. Wind direction becomes more variable.

Sustained wind speeds mainly near 10-20 kts lower tonight to
near 5-10 kts. Gusts are in the 20-30 kts range, which will
lower tonight and eventually diminish altogether.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Rain showers and MVFR possible late tonight.

Gust timing might be a few hours off from TAF.

Peak gusts before 20Z today up to near 35 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: Possible MVFR with any rain shower potential.
Otherwise mainly VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20-25 kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Some southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have subsided below 25 kt on the non-ocean waters. The
Advisory has been cancelled.

A SCA on the ocean remains in effect until 6pm primarily for
seas. Winds and waves blw criteria tngt all waters, then winds
and waves both get close on Tue with a fropa. Too mrgnl to issue
a SCA attm.

High pres builds over the waters Wed and Thu, so no SCA
expected. Return flow around the high on Fri could bring seas
close to 5 ft on the ocean.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JMC/JM/DS