What's Happening In Newington

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FXUS61 KOKX 080536
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
136 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot & humid conditions persist through at least Saturday. The
heat will continue into Sunday and Monday, but lower humidity will
reduce most high heat index concerns.

3) Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue most
afternoons/evenings through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An anomalously strong subtropical ridge will gradually break down
into the weekend as the westerlies once again drop back into the
area.

Deep SSW flow from Gulf/Sub-tropic origin will continue a very warm
and more notably a very humid airmass across the region through at
least Saturday.

Daytime highs will run 3 to 7 degrees above normal, well below
records, but the high humidity (mid to upper 70s Tds) will make it
feel quite uncomfortable. Heat index values today have been able to
solidly get into heat advisory criteria. Max heat index values have
been in the upper 90s to 104 across much of the area.

With approaching shortwave on Saturday, perhaps more in the way of
convective debris, and some subtle indication of Tds being slightly
lower (lower to mid 70s). There is enough confidence in another
day of mid 90 heat indices to extend the heat advisory into
NYC, NE NJ, LI, S Westchester, and coastal southern Connecticut.

Better signal for lowering TDs (upper 60s/lower 70s) for Sunday into
Monday in wake of a weak cold front. So although temps will likely
remain very warm in the upper 80s/lower 90s, HI`s will likely fall
back into the lower 90s to 95. Heat advisories may need to be
extended for NE NJ, NYC Metro, and LI, but marginal at this
point.

Heat indices may perk back up into the mid to upper 90s on Tuesday
ahead of next approaching series of northern stream shortwaves and
cold front, before a general signal for a cool down to more
seasonable temps for middle of next week.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Saturday into Tuesday, the flow aloft becomes more zonal. During
this period, several shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow aloft
with bring through numerous surface troughs or quasi-cold fronts.
These will support more daily rain chances for afternoons and
evenings most days into the beginning of next week. The only
exception is Sunday which appears drier. Coverage in showers and
thunderstorms each day will vary, but for now we`re not
anticipating concern for severe weather. WPC carries another
marginal ERO for northern interior sections of the CWA on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary across the
region today.

Chance of MVFR/IFR conditions from approx 09-13z today, otherwise
VFR. Potential for iso-sct late day/eve SHRA/TSRA with sub-VFR.

Light and variable/WSW winds at most terminals overnight. WSW
winds increase Saturday morning, shifting to the SW in the
afternoon with potential of S-SW sea breezes for coastal terminals.
Gusts 15-20 kt are likely this afternoon into early evening, but
could possibly be only occasional.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

PROB30 TSRA timing for this afternoon into evening may be off by an
hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR.

Sunday-Monday: VFR. Isolated shower/thunderstorm possible well NW of
NYC terminals Monday evening.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Low probability of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90


&&

.MARINE...
A persistent SW flow of 10 to 15 kt with gusts up 20 kt on the
ocean waters late afternoon and evening through Sat. Occasional
gusts to 25 kt possible near entrance to NY Harbor with coastal
jet formation each late afternoon/evening, which could have
ocean seas building to 3-5 ft during these times.

Sub-SCA conditions continue Sunday into mid week next week.

Rip Currents: Persistent SW flow and associated wind waves will
lead to a moderate rip current risk through Sunday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for CTZ005>008.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ068>070.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ071>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC