What's Happening In Newington

759
FXUS61 KOKX 270831
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
431 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry with near normal temperatures through mid-week.

2) A widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday night into Thursday,
with a cooler pattern then in place through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Offshore low pressure will slowly drift east through today, allowing
high pressure to nose in from the north through early Tuesday.

Under clear and nearly calm conditions, patchy frost will remain
possible, primarily in the LI Pine Barrens and interior portions of
New London county. Otherwise, temperatures prior to daybreak
will remain too warm in the upper 30s to lower 40s for frosty to
develop.

A cold front approaches late on Tuesday, but runs into ridging
aloft, so not looking for too much in the way of rain Tuesday night,
with just a slight chance of showers across NE NJ, and the Lower
Hudson Valley.

With heights building aloft, warmer temperatures are expected, but
they are expected to be near normal, generally in the 60s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Global dynamical and AI-based ensemble systems continue to advertise
anomalously low H5 heights over the East late this week, with
stubborn troughing thanks to strong blocking setting up between the
Canadian Maritimes and Greenland. The strength and placement of
these features will help drive the sensible weather locally through
the weekend.

Ahead of this, an advancing frontal system leads the incoming
trough, with shortwave energy rounding the trough helping to
instigate a surface wave of low pressure along the boundary. This
will bring a widespread rainfall as the system passes through
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with potential for the rain
to linger later into the day. QPF has trended upwards since the last
forecast update, now looking to average around one inch through
Thursday, with NBM V5 90th percentile around 1.5 to 2.0 inches.
Hydrological concerns appear minimal, and should largely prove
beneficial with NYC, NE NJ, and the LoHud Valley in moderate drought.

Thereafter, still some uncertainty with additional chances for rain
into the weekend, but for now, increasing confidence in cooler than
normal conditions late this week into early next, with daytime highs
mid to late week largely in the 50s and low 60s, and chances for wet
weather at times, though a washout appears unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR with high pressure will be in control through tonight.

Light N or variable flow veering to the NE around 12z. Winds
will continue veering through the afternoon, becoming SE at 10
kt or less. Winds diminish after 00z, becoming light and
variable through tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts may be off by 1-2 hours.

Winds could become S at KJFK late afternoon and early evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late Tonight - Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday Night-Thursday: MVFR or lower with showers tapering off
late Thursday. Slight chance of thunder. NW gusts 15-20 kt Thursday.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers. NW gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in place for ocean waters through
Tuesday due to a lingering 5ft swell from an offshore low. This may
continue into Tuesday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on Wednesday. Winds and seas
may return to SCA levels on Thursday and remain so into Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR