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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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639 FXUS61 KOKX 031146 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 746 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is a marginal risk (SPC) for isolated severe thunderstorms covering NYC, western LI, NE NJ, and portions of the Lower Hudson Valley for this afternoon/early evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and embedded thunderstorms exit offshore this morning with a chance of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. 2) Frontal wave passing to the south on Friday may produce a round of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. 2) Mainly dry, seasonably cool conditions are forecast for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers associated with a warm front will exit the area this morning. While the airmass is gradually destabilizing this morning, do not expect anything more than an isolated thunderstorm (best chance to the south of LI). Forecast gets a bit more challenging later as a weak cold front drops into the area late this afternoon into early this evening. This coupled with a warm, humid warm sector and modest mid level flow (around 40kt) raise the concerns for strong and/or severe convection. There have also been convectively induced shortwaves in the westerlies that have aided convection in recent days and this looks to be the case today. There are some limiting factors with the boundary being rather diffuse with marginal mid-level lapse rates. This should limit the areal extent. SPC has placed the SW portion of the forecast area (NYC, NE NJ, western LI, and part of the Lower Hudson Valley) in a marginal risk, which supports isolated severe thunderstorm development. The main threat being damaging winds. Most of the CAMs support activity either near or to the SW of the marginal risk area, with little activity to the north and east. However, the area destabilizes with the HREF mean SBCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/KG areawide. This coupled with the aforementioned shortwave energy does raise the concern for scattered strong convection elsewhere. Any lingering convection should be over by around midnight. High temperatures today will get into the 80s at most locations with the mid and upper 80s across the NYC/NJ metro. This combined with dew points getting into the 70s will produce heat index values of 90 to 95 in the metro area. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Guidance has been trending toward a chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm on Friday as a frontal wave passes near or just south of the area. There is no severe weather threat with weak instability. High temperatures continue to trend warmer with Friday once again into the 80s. The only difference looks to be a WNW flow with some drier air. It will feel less humid. The front gets a better push or shot of cold advection Friday night as an upper trough drops south across eastern Canada and into the Northeast. In fact, an upper low closes off over the Canadian Maritimes and remains there for much of the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3... The airmass becomes much cooler and drier Friday night into the holiday weekend. Temperatures will be close to normal on Saturday, then slightly below normal for Sunday. There may be a slight warming trend on Labor Day. Less humid conditions are also forecast for the holiday weekend. Mainly dry conditions may prevail into the middle of next week. In addition, with the aforementioned upper low over the Canadian Maritimes, some wraparound moisture moisture from offshore low pressure and weak instability may trigger a shower Saturday afternoon/evening. Best chance will be across eastern LI and SE CT. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A warm front lifts through terminals this morning. A trailing cold front follows this evening. Categories fluctuate this morning between IFR and VFR with the nearby frontal boundary, with a few lingering showers also briefly restricting vsbys at some terminals. MVFR cigs likely develop and linger through much of the rest of the morning. More consistent improvement to VFR by early afternoon. A round of thunderstorms is possible during the second half of the afternoon and into the evening, though confidence remains low on coverage and placement. W or SW flow into the morning hours as the front lifts through. SW winds increase 10 to 13 kt by late morning, and occasional gusts up to 20 kt are possible in the afternoon. Flow turns NW overnight into Friday AM behind the cold fropa. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Conditions may fluctuate between VFR, MVFR, and IFR this morning. Timing of improvement could be off by an hour or two. Low confidence in possible TSRA late this afternoon and early this evening. Timing could also be several hours later. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR in afternoon showers. Saturday through Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through the upcoming holiday weekend. A 2-3 ft E/SE swell today combined with a southerly flow at 10-15kt will keep a moderate rip current risk in place. The swell diminishes for Friday, and with winds out of the NW to W providing little additional energy for rip current development, the rip current risk will be low. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DR MARINE...DW |
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NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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