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119
FXUS61 KOKX 041737
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1237 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably warm through Thursday.

2) Moderate to heavy rainfall remains increasingly likely
Thursday night into Friday night from NYC and points east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A highly amplified upper level ridge along the eastern seaboard
will provide another couple of days of unseasonable warmth,
with temperatures at least 10-15 degrees above normal.The
warmest day will come today, with much of the area topping out
in the lower and mid 70s, with a few upper 70s possible in NE
NJ. This is still in line with GFS MOS guidance and the NBM
90th percentile. Thursday takes a slight step down with
increasing clouds and a strengthening S-SW flow off the cooler
ocean waters.

Forecast highs and lows get close to but remain within maximum
records at this time.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A highly amplified upper flow featuring the interaction of
multiple streams of energy will become the major player as an
upper trough undergoes amplification approaching the eastern
seaboard at the end of the week. A weak cold front associated
with the upper trough will approach the area on Thursday,
preceded by some warm advection showers, but mainly north and
west of the NYC metro. As the front works across from Thu night
into Friday, deep layer lift develops due to the coupling of
upper jet exit and entrance regions and a strengthening frontal
zone. Models are in good agreement with a band of heavy rain
setting up across the area Fri into Fri night. Both the 00Z GFS
and 12Z ECMWF point toward at least a 2-3 inch swath across ern
Long Island and SE CT, dropping to less than inch just NW of
NYC. NBM amts looked too low at least for Long Island and S CT
given degree of moisture transport into those areas and
convergence on the nose of an H8 LLJ enhancing lift, so blended
that with the higher model QPF noted above. NBM 90th percentile
has higher amts of 2-3 inches extending NW north/west and 4-5
inches for ern Long Island/SE CT, so there is still room for
heavier amts to extend north/west and for amts across the board
to be higher than fcst. While there is some instability to
support deeper convection, we are still not in the window of the
REFS and HRRR to see hourly rates. GFS has PW values
approaching 1.75 inches near eastern Long Island, which is above
the 90th percentile.

WPC still has the NYC metro, Long Island, coastal CT, and
interior SE CT under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for
Friday. However, dry antecedent conditions are in place due to
little if any rainfall since mid October. This will also be a
long duration event. Thus, the main flooding issues at this
time look to be minor, but longer term issues like basement
flooding are a possibility.

Heaviest rainfall likely comes to end by Saturday morning, but
some shower activity could linger on saturday with the upper
low overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast slowly
progresses eastward into Thursday as a weak front approaches
from the west.

Mainly VFR today with MVFR or lower returning overnight
partially in response to the approaching front, but sites near
the coast may also see fog develop.

Rain onset looks to be later than previously forecast, generally
from 15-18Z across the interior and then moving east through the
evening. Given the dry air mass ahead of the front, the rain may
initially be patchy with brief opportunities for improving
conditions. As ceilings become higher into the evening, a few
gusts to near 20 kt may be possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected today.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday: MVFR/IFR or lower. Chance of rain showers, especially
west of NYC.

Friday: MVFR/IFR possible w/ showers. Thunder also possible.

Saturday: Improving to VFR early.

Sunday: MVFR possible w/ showers.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the coastal waters remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria through Thursday afternoon.

Increasing long fetch S-SW flow ahead of an approaching cold
front develops late Thursday and could push significant wave
heights toward 5 ft on the ocean by late Thu night. Conditions
briefly relax on Friday, before winds and seas increase once
again in NW flow this weekend, with SCA conditions likely on
at least the ocean waters much of early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

November 4:
KEWR: 79/1994
KBDR: 78/1975
KNYC: 78/1975
KLGA: 76/1987
KJFK: 77/1975
KISP: 76/1990

November 5:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 78/1961
KLGA: 75/2022
KJFK: 75/1975
KISP: 74/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5:
KEWR: 61/2022
KBDR: 59/1961
KNYC: 64/2022
KLGA: 63/2022
KJFK: 60/2022
KISP: 62/2022

November 6:
KEWR: 66/2022
KBDR: 62/2024
KNYC: 66/2022
KLGA: 65/2024
KJFK: 64/2022
KISP: 65/2022


Record Precipitation:

November 6:
KEWR: 2.12/1911
KBDR: 0.54/2018
KNYC: 1.47/1911
KLGA: 0.96/1963
KJFK: 1.42/1963
KISP: 0.71/1963

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman
AVIATION...MD
MARINE...Goodman