Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
951 FXUS61 KOKX 170237 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1037 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday. 2) Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Friday, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. 3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher in much colder weather for the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Friday will be the last of the really warm temperatures this week, although not as warm as today. Expect temperatures on Friday to be in the 70s and lower 80s. This will still be a good 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Still felt like parts of long Island were too cool on the NBM, (which has been the case all week) so I did manually adjust the temperatures up a bit. There will also be more cloud cover along with a chance for some showers. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A frontal boundary remains stalled north of the forecast area through tonight. A wave of low pressure will travel along the front which may result in some showers overnight, however the better forcing for showers and thunderstorms remains north of the forecast area. As the surface front starts to drop southward late tonight into Friday morning, expect the chance for showers to increase a bit, however most of the forecast guidance has most of the precipitation dissipating as it approaches the area. Will keep just slight chance POPs with the frontal passage early Friday. It looks like the best chances for any shower/thunder development will be focused on the eastern sections of the CWA late Friday into Friday evening as an upper level trough moves across the area. CAMs seem to be focusing on an area of eastern CT and possibly the Twin Forks. Have bumped up POPs a bit here to likely. NBM thunder chances seem low, but probably just enough to warrant the need to mention a chance of thunder. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A stronger cold front will move across the region on Sunday, bringing another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Good cold air advection kicks in on a NW flow behind the front and temperatures quickly fall by late in the evening and overnight. Any lingering areas of rain may mix with some sleet or snow as the precipitation comes to an end. Lows Sunday night drop into the 30s, except near 40 in the NYC metro area. The cold pool aloft builds in Mon with 1000-500mb thicknesses around 520dam. The steep lapse rates should allow for at least isold-sct shwrs, possibly mixed with snow or ice pellets. The NBM pops may be a bit too low. Temperatures Monday night will range from the upper 20s to middle 30s. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A prefrontal trough moves across the area early tonight followed by a cold front passage on Friday. Mainly VFR. A few showers are possible across the Lower Hudson Valley through 4-5Z. Isolated showers are also possible overnight elsewhere, but not enough confidence/coverage to include in TAF at this time. PROB30s for showers have been added at all terminals for Friday afternoon/early evening with the cold front passage. Sustained winds falL below 10 kt overnight, and may go variable, at times. Winds will veer to the NW overnight and then the NE late Friday afternoon and evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments are expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday: Chance of showers, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, especially at night. Saturday: Chance of MVFR ceilings. Sunday: MVFR or lower conditions possible. Showers likely. W winds gusts 20 kt in the afternoon and evening. Monday-Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Waves will remain to come close to 5 ft on the ocean waters out to 20 NM. Some seas will come close to 6 ft on the on the far eastern ocean waters from 20-60mm. Otherwise conditions will remain below SCA levels into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the waters will likely bring SCA conditions Sunday and Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached: Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012 Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BC AVIATION...BR MARINE...BC |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.