What's Happening In Newington

082
FXUS61 KOKX 110719
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
319 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty post-frontal winds after a cold frontal passage and
showers over Long Island and southeast Connecticut should end
around or soon after daybreak.

2) Unsettled weather expected mid to late week, with the
highest probability of showers from late Wednesday afternoon
into daytime Thursday.

3) Dry and warm conditions expected for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front has passed through, with winds
having shifted N and gusting close to 25 kt in spots.
These winds should settle down by daybreak Mon, while showers
across Long Island and SE CT also come to an end, perhaps
lingering out on the forks of Long Island until about 8 AM. A
cooler/drier air mass will work its way in, with highs only on
the lower/mid 60s which is a few degrees below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure and its associated mid level
shortwave will dive SE into the Great Lakes region Tuesday
night. This system will carve out a deeper mid-upper level
trough over the eastern States mid to late week. The primary low
should head into upstate NY and weaken Wed night, then a
secondary should form along the Mid Atlantic coast and pass just
SE of Long Island daytime Thu. Overrunning showers should
impact the area late day Wed into Wed night, with warm conveyor
belt showers and a few tstms ahead of the developing secondary
low Wed night into Thu morning. QPF during this time frame
expected to run from 2/3 to 1 inch, with the higher amts across
S CT and Long Island. Can`t rule out some nuisance impacts from
moderate to locally heavy rain Wed night, and perhaps into Thu
morning out east. After the secondary low passes, instability
showers via cool conveyor belt moisture and mid level cold pool
aloft should continue into Fri, and can`t entirely rule out an
isolated afternoon tstm.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The low should pull away from the area in time
to allow for warm and dry conditions this weekend. High temps
per NBM and ECMWF MOS should range from 75-80 in most places on
Sat, and the upper 70s/lower 80s on Sunday. Higher NBM
percentile forecasts signal potential for temps to be a few
degrees warmer than that. Temps of course will be cooler along
the SE CT coast and the south shore of Long Island.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front is moving through the area with a frontal wave
passing just south and east of LI tonight. Weak high pressure
follows for Monday with a surface trough passing through late in
the day.

Mainly VFR, with brief MVFR conditions possible in SHRA through
the early morning hours Monday.

Northerly winds around 10 kt behind a cold frontal passage
tonight. Winds may be briefly gusty upwards of 20-25 kt but not
expecting gusts to persist. Winds will then back to the NW on
Monday, or even S/SW along the coast by mid afternoon. Potential
for gusts up 15-18 kt Monday afternoon, but may be more
occasional. Any S-SW winds become N-NW once again early Monday
night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR conditions are possible in any showers tonight into
the early morning hours Monday.

Timing of wind shifts and seabreeze development will likely vary
by 1-2 hours Monday.

A few gusts of 15-18kt will be possible again in the NW flow
Monday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. An isolated shower cannot be
ruled out Monday night.

Wednesday: Showers developing through the day. MVFR or lower
conditions. S winds G15-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday-Friday: Showers possible with MVFR or lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA extended for all ocean waters out 20 nm until 6 AM from
Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, til noon from there E to
Moriches Inlet, and through the afternoon out to Montauk Point
as SE swells of 5-6 ft continue and are mostly running higher
than NWPS forecast. A few northerly gusts to 25 kt are also
likely on the ocean into early this morning.

As S flow increases ahead of a frontal sys on Wed, SCA cond are
likely on the ocean and the Long Island south shore bays, with
gusts to 25-30 kt in the afternoon/evening and ocean seas
building to 5-6 ft. Ocean seas up to 5 ft should then linger
into at least Thu morning, possibly into the afternoon E of
Moriches Inlet.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BG
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BG