What's Happening In Newington

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FXUS61 KOKX 101608 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
1208 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon
from NYC north/west will be followed by more numerous showers
from NYC south/east tonight into Monday morning.

2) Unsettled weather expected mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...
Expect scattered afternoon showers and possibly a tstm from mid
to late afternoon from NYC north/west ahead of an approaching
cold front. Showers should become more likely from NYC
south/east tonight as an amplifying upper trough sends the cold
front across, with one or more weak frontal waves passing to the
south and east. At any rate the rainfall will be light, with
less than 1/10 inch QPF expected.

High temps may struggle to reach 70 degrees across Long Island
and coastal CT due to lingering low clouds. Have adjusted temps
down here. Otherwise, highs should still be able to reach the
low to mid 70s from NYC metro on NW. Still potential to reach 80
in the urban corridor or NE NJ.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Low pressure over the Northern Plains on Tue will dive SE into
the Great Lakes region Tue night, then head across the Northeast
Wed into Thu, then pass slowly E on Fri. Showers with this
system should start to arrive Wed afternoon, with the most
likely time for organized rainfall from Wed night into daytime
Thu and possibly Thu night. Chance PoP should also linger into
Fri as the low pulls off to the east. Some uncertainty exists as
to rainfall amts, with the ECMWF/Canadian wetter and the GFS
drier. Consensus approach argues for rainfall of at least 1/2 to
3/4 inch with localized amts over an inch. As the parent upper
low closes off this system could be slower to exit than
currently fcst, with light shower activity possibly lingering
into part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front approaches today, moving through terminals tonight.
High pressure then builds in on Monday.

IFR/LIFR conditions will continue to gradually improve as low
stratus and fog scatters out to mainly VFR conditions by 16Z
for the city terminals. Coastal terminals may take a bit longer
to become VFR.

SHRA development possible this afternoon with localized MVFR
conditions possible. SHRA become more widespread for terminals
this evening and into the overnight, mainly for NYC and east.
Any SHRA end 9-12Z Monday with VFR conditions remaining.

Light and variable winds this morning become light W-SW and
increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. There is the
potential for gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon, but confidence
in not high due to uncertainty in the depth of the mixed layer.
Winds will then veer to the NW-N in the evening behind the cold
front.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely this morning with improving conditions and
possible later today for timing of any SHRA.

Chance of gusts up to 20 kt Sunday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: Low chance of showers and MVFR early, especially near
the coast, then VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt possible in the
afternoon.

Wednesday: Showers developing through the day. MVFR or lower
conditions. S winds G15-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday: Showers possible with MVFR or lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Visibilities are improving on the nearshore waters, especially
the Western Sound, NY Harbor, and LI Bays. Have extended the
dense fog advisory through 3 pm for eastern/central LI Sound and
the ocean out 20 nm as visibilities remain 1 nm or less. Should
see improvement this afternoon, but some patchy dense fog could
linger, especially across the nearshore ocean waters east of
Fire Island Inlet. Visibilities should improve this evening with
a cold front moving across the waters.

Expanded SCA to all ocean waters out 20 nm as swells 5-6 ft were
already approaching 44025. These swells should continue into
tonight. A few 5-footers could linger into Mon AM S of Montauk.

S flow could gust up to 25 kt on the ocean waters W of Fire
Island Inlet and possibly on the Long Island south shore bays
Wed afternoon and early evening.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/DS
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...Goodman/DS