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359
FXUS61 KOKX 090002
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
702 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The area will remain in between high pressure to south and west
and low pressure to north and east into the first half of this week.
A few frontal system pass by but without much rain. Breezy and mild
conditions expected much of the time.

2) Low pressure may impact the region late Thursday into Friday
night, bringing potential of widespread rain and gusty winds.
Impacts, if any, at this time are uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

The area remains under a tight pressure gradient with low
pressure to the northeast and high pressure to the southwest.
This is resulting in continued gusty conditions into this
evening, and more intermittently, into Monday.

Another shortwave trough approaches the area from the northwest
into Monday bringing with it another period of CAA under NW
flow. This system will have a limited amount of moisture so any
showers associated with this weak frontal system should be
fairly isolated to scattered at best and limited to the
northern and eastern portions of the area.

Mainly high pressure builds in briefly for Tuesday with another
weak shortwave passing north of the area. This system will once
again have limited moisture so mainly dry conditions are
expected. General high pressure then takes control into the
middle of the week before giving way to another potential low
pressure system toward the end of the week.

Regarding temperatures, the airmass generally remains mild with
temperatures staying above normal with highs staying mostly in the
upper 50s to lower 60s range through Wednesday. Temperatures at
night will have less radiational cooling with the boundary
layer winds staying up. Lows this week will be in the 40s for
much of the area but some spots may drop into the 30s especially
northern and more typical cold spots.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Forecast confidence is low for the end of the week with potential
low pressure impacting the region.

An amplifying trough over the eastern US will likely spawn low
pressure somewhere from the Ohio to Tennessee Valley on Thursday.
The low should then begin organizing as it nears the east coast
Thursday night into Friday. Main question for this time period is
the exact track and intensity of the low as model spread is quite
large. Solutions vary from the low passing well to our NW, a
transfer/redevelopment over or SE of Long Island, to a low passing
well to our south with little to no precip reaching our area.
Despite these differences, probabilities for precipitation Thursday
night into Friday range from 60-80 percent, dropping to 40-50
percent Friday night. Rain will be the predominate precipitation
type despite the track/ differences. The only exception
would be for some interior locations in the Lower Hudson Valley
mixing with some wet snow flakes as the associated upper low/trough
pass overhead Friday night. The NBM probability for a dusting of
snow is only about 10-15 percent for higher elevations in the NW
interior. Climatology and a marginally cool air mass also favor
areas well NW of our CWA for any wintry precip, if it were to occur.

The latest NBM probabilities for greater than 1 inch of rain for the
event range from 35 to 55 percent across the area, highest near the
coast. The latest NBM probability for greater than 2 inches of rain
for the event is low and generally 5 to 15 percent, also highest
near the coast.

While rain and gusty winds are the main concerns, impacts, if any,
are unknown at this time due to the aforementioned uncertainty.

The upper low may linger over New England for a portion of next
weekend, so conditions look cooler than normal and could remain
unsettled with lingering clouds and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds to the south. A weakening cold front
approaches Monday morning.

VFR prevails. Low end VFR is possible Monday morning with the
approach and passage of the cold front. Brief MVFR is possible,
but that is looking less likely at this point. An isolated
shower, mainly for eastern terminals is possible.

W to WSW winds 10 to 15 kt diminish somewhat overnight. Winds
shift more to the W early Monday morning and increase to 15 to
20 kt, with gusts of 25-30 kt. Isolated gusts of 30-35 kt are
possible. Winds shift to the WNW by late morning, with gusts
diminishing towards the end of the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts of 15 to 20 kt through 03Z possible. Low end
VFR possible Monday, but looking less likely at this point.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: VFR. WNW winds diminishing to 5 to 10 kt
overnight.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds 10-15 kt G15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. W winds 5-10 kt.

Thursday and Friday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With a steep pressure gradient remaining in place across the local
waters, widespread SCA wind gusts are expected to continue through
Monday. As such, the SCA remains on all waters until 6PM EST
Monday. For the ocean, their seas stay near 5 to 7 ft through
Monday and are forecast to remain near 5 to 6 ft Monday night.
Therefore the SCA for the ocean zones out 20 NM goes further,
ending at 6AM EST Tuesday.

Additional SCA wind gusts are possible Tuesday with the next frontal
system passage with ocean SCA seas potentially lasting more into
Tuesday as well as Tuesday night. Brief sub-SCA conditions
forecast for midweek for all waters before winds and seas
increase Thursday into Thursday night with potential return of
SCA conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS/MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MW