What's Happening In Newington

631
FXUS61 KOKX 121139
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
739 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made since the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorms possible tonight into Thursday with limited
impacts.

2) Scattered areas of minor coastal flooding likely for
vulnerable locales along the south shore of Nassau and Queens
and coastal Westchester and Fairfield during the nighttime high
tide thru Thursday. Greatest coverage of minor flooding likely
for tonight`s high tide.

3) Rain appearing more likely Sunday night into Monday morning. Low
confidence regarding impacts.

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Thunderstorms will be possible tonight into Thursday as 2 separate
surface troughs shift through the area. The first would appear to be
more convectively induced (MCV) and enter the western zones late
tonight and weaken with as it reaches the eastern zones Thursday
morning. Not anticipating severe weather with this trough although
with progged CAPE and shear, cannot completely rule out a gust to
severe levels west of the Hudson River tonight. Any storms that
occur should move quickly enough to preclude flash flooding.

The second trough appears to be more synoptic in nature, linked with
an upper trough axis stretching in from the northeast. Moisture will
probably not be as deep and capping could limit storm growth, but
some guidance suggests a good amount of CAPE and speed shear over
the eastern zones, so cannot rule out thunder with strong wind
gusts. No flooding impacts anticipated with any of these storms.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Astronomical tides peak today with an approaching new moon,
bringing potential for scattered areas of minor coastal flooding
during the evening/nighttime high tides thru Thursday.

Threat for a bit more widespread minor coastal flooding during
the tonight high tide as compared to yesterday along the south
shore of Nassau and Queens and coastal Westchester and Fairfield
as astro tides peak. This mainly appears to be within 2 tenths
of a ft of minor flood thresholds, and with weak wind and wave
forcing, will maintain coastal flood statements. Localized
flooding possible for vulnerable locations along lower NY
Harbor, Newark bay and tidally affected NE NJ rivers as well.

Astro tides tick down 1 to 2 tenths for Thu Night high tides,
and with similarly weak wind/wave forcing, another night of
iso-sct areas of minor flooding.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Global models are in pretty good agreement with a storm system
passing through and impacting the forecast area during the late
day Sunday through Monday period. The timing of the system would
not appear to enhance the thunderstorm threat as it would serve
to limit CAPE, but ample shear would be present nevertheless.
PWATS could climb to over 2 inches, so trends in the flooding
potential will need to be watched. Main point here is that
rainfall is appearing to be likely, with Sunday night into early
Monday being the most likely time of rainfall and any impacts.
It`s still too soon to have high confidence regarding potential
severe weather and flooding impacts.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak high pressure in control through the TAF period, with a
a weak cold front approaching and crossing tonight.

VFR, outside of potential for scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA
late tonight into early Thu AM push.

NW winds this morning (with occasional gusts to mid teens)
backing to W/SW this afternoon. Afternoon S/SW seabreezes
likely for south coastal terminals, possible for KLGA/KEWR/KTEB
late day/eve.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Potential for scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA late tonight (aft
04z) into early Thu AM push. Prob30 in TAfs.

NW winds this morning (right of 300 True) backing to W/SW (left
of 300 true) this afternoon. Occasional gusts to mid teens from
mid morning through mid afternoon.

Afternoon S seabreezes likely for JFK btwn 20z and 01z,
possible for KLGA/KEWR/KTEB eve btwn 22z and 01z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR. Potential for scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA
into early Thu AM push. Low and sparse aft/eve SHRA/TSRA
potential, particularly eastern terminals. W-NW winds
10-15g20kt.

Friday-Saturday: VFR. W-NW winds, giving way to afternoon
seabreezes.

Sunday: VFR likely for much of the day. Increasing likelihood
for showers and a chance of thunderstorms later in day and at
night.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the waters are forecast to remain below SCA
thresholds through much of the weekend as the forecast pressure
gradient will not become too steep.

Conditions Sunday night into Monday trend more towards SCA
levels for mainly the ocean as high pressure moves offshore and
low pressure approaches from the west. Some non-ocean zones will
have SCA potential for wind gusts as well.

Rip Currents: 1-2 ft SE onshore swell and S/SW wind wave this week,
with weak seabreeze development will generally keep the rip risk low
through Thursday. One caveat, approach of new moon will increase
the tidal range, and could increase rip risk to moderate particularly
around the times of low tide each afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/NV