What's Happening In Newington

734
FXUS61 KOKX 231449
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1049 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet, cool and breezy conditions for Memorial Day weekend
with areas of minor urban and poor drainage flooding expected.

2) High rip current risk in effect through Sunday and a high
surf advisory in effect on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper level ridge builds in today with the axis passing
through late tonight. At the surface, high pressure builds in
from the northeast while a warm front gradually approaches from
the south. The high will eventually begin to retreat later in
the day. Multiple waves of low pressure along the approaching
front will bring unsettled weather to the area for Memorial Day
Weekend. This set up is complex as these waves are weak and
leading to some differences in guidance, but confidence is high
in a long duration soaking rain with breezy and cool conditions
for today and Sunday. While chances of showers linger on Monday,
lighter winds and warmer temperatures are expected.

Mainly light stratiform rain expected today. Given the high to our
northeast, there is some low level dry air that will need to be
overcome. There is potential for a good part of the day to be
mainly dry with some sprinkles or light rain for eastern Long
Island and eastern CT. The rain should become steadier late in
the day through tonight as a LLJ strengthens. The rain may be
come moderate to locally heavy at times on Sunday. The rain
potentially becomes more showery in nature by late Sunday. Given
the long duration of this event, flash flooding is not
expected, but areas of minor urban and poor drainage flooding is
likely. Peak rainfall rates will average 0.25 to 0.50 inches
per hour with a low chance for a localized 0.75 in/hr rate in
any heavy rain late tonight into Sunday afternoon.

There is more uncertainty for Monday in terms of rain. Some of
the new 12z CAMs are coming in with less coverage of rain. Even
the GFS has trended drier and more towards the ECMWF and the AI
versions of the ECMWF and GFS. The overall trend seems to be
pointing towards some rain or showers Monday morning with
improving conditions the rest of the day. This will continue to
be monitored. Current storm total rain forecast from today
through Monday remains similar to the previous, closer to 1.5
inches for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT with 2 to
2.25 inches elsewhere.

For winds, generally breezy easterly flow through the entire
weekend, but peaking late tonight into Sunday morning with the LLJ.
During this time sustained winds along the coast are forecast to be
15 to 25 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph. This was bumped up a few mph
from the NBM deterministic by blending in NBM90th.

Temperatures today and Sunday will run about 15 degrees below normal
thanks to the strong easterly flow and cloud cover. Used some high
res guidance to knock down a few degrees from the NBM, especially
for the north fork of Long Island. While we are not expecting to
break record low max temperatures, some climate sites will be
within 5 degrees of a record.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A high rip/longshore current risk expected for Saturday and
Sunday due to easterly swells continuing to build to 8-11 ft.
A Rip Current Statement has been issued through Sunday for all
of the ocean beaches.

A High Surf Advisory has also been issued for Sunday due to
expected 10 ft breaking waves.

The high rip current risk could linger into Monday with residual
5-ft long period ESE swell.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains entrenched off the Maine coast through
Sunday, while a warm frontal boundary slowly approaches from
the south.

VFR in -RA for NYC/NJ terminals this morning. Ceilings and
visibilities lowering through the afternoon in steady -RA. IFR
condition in moderate rain likely to develop this evening and
continue through the overnight. Similar conditions developing 1
to 4 hrs later for eastern terminals, last for KGON.

E winds increase to 10-15g20kt this morning, gradually
increasing through the afternoon, with E 15-20g25-30kt for
evening push into overnight. Occasional gusts to 35 kt possible
overnight for coastal terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of MVFR (IFR possible) in RA this afternoon evening may
be off by by a few hours. E Gusts 25-30kt likely for evening
push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: IFR or lower conds. RA during the day, becoming
-SHRA and -DZ late and overnight. Low and sparse potential for
tstm in aft/night. E-NE wind gusts 20-30 kt likely, highest at
the coastal terminals. Occasional gusts to 35 kt possible. Winds
likely subside below 10 kt for late aft/eve push into
overnight.

Monday: Showers possible with MVFR or lower conds during the
day, improving in the eve/night.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters, with the
Long Island Sound and Peconic and Gardiners Bays starting
tonight. An easterly flow will continue to strengthen and bring
30 kt gusts. Seas on the ocean will reach 10 to 11 ft, with
waves across the LI Sound reaching 4 to 6 ft. Winds lower
significantly by Monday, but elevated seas on the ocean will
likely lead to a SCA extending through the day.

Thereafter, conditions generally remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ331-332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ335.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT/DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JT