What's Happening In Newington

864
FXUS61 KOKX 230234
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1034 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Rip Current Statement has been issued for Saturday due to a
high risk for rip currents. Small Craft Advisories have been
extended and expanded.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool, breezy and wet for the Memorial Day weekend. This will
be a prolonged soaking rain. Primary threat will be areas of
minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

2) A high rip current risk Saturday and Sunday could last into
Monday. High surf potential for Saturday night into Sunday,
with minor beach erosion and flooding possible during the times
of high tide Sunday afternoon and night.

3) More rain chances mid to late next week with a few dry
breaks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
For the Memorial Day Weekend, anticipate a prolonged stretch of
wet weather under cool & breezy conditions.

An upper-level ridge this weekend over the Eastern US will help
guide a broad area of surface low pressure with a weak
shortwave aloft in the Lower Mississippi Valley northward into
the Mid Atlantic/E Ohio River Valley region by tonight. This
area of low pressure is weak, but packed full of moisture.
GFS IVT shows higher moisture originating in the Gulf getting
transported into the region with the system. PW could peak
Saturday and Sunday around 1.3 to 1.7 inches, which would be
within the 90th percentile and the max moving average according
to the SPC Sounding Climatology Page.

This area of low pressure will move over the region this
weekend, leading to rain gradually overspreading the area SW
to NE on Saturday. We`ll then remain socked in a soaking rain
throughout Saturday into Sunday evening. Rainfall will then
taper in coverage, becoming more scattered on Sunday night as
low pressure makes its exit, but a frontal boundary will remain
draped over or near the region.

Late Sunday night into the first half of Monday (Memorial Day) could
see additional scattered chances of light rainfall with another,
much smaller, wave of low pressure passing through along a
stalled frontal boundary. This low may be spurred on by a weak
shortwave aloft passing through as the flow becomes more zonal
aloft in response to a closed upper low moving into northern
Quebec from the Hudson Bay. Details are much more murky on
Monday`s rain chances and may change. It will largely depend on
how the upper low shakes out in Quebec and how the low
progresses through our area this weekend.

Overall, anticipating 1.75" to 2.75" overall event total rainfall
this weekend, encompassing a 60-hour period. Lower totals are
anticipated across the northern half of the CWA with higher
totals at the coast. This is mainly due to the rainfall getting
suppressed by subsidence and more dry air on Saturday due to
high pressure remaining in the far northern interior, then more
moisture and instability available at the coast, on Sunday into
Monday. High pressure will eventually exit into the Canadian
Maritimes sometime Saturday night into Sunday.

Much of the rainfall is anticipated to be light, but some
periods of moderate rainfall are possible especially closer to
the coast from late day Saturday into Sunday morning. This is
a result of more efficient rainfall aided by a 35-50kt LLJ.

Most of the event will be stratiform rain, but model soundings
hint at some marginal instability Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening. A few embedded thunderstorms could result in more
efficient rainfall in isolated spots for brief periods of time.

Minor/urban poor drainage flooding can be expected in any
prolonged rainfall event. Thankfully, much of the rainfall
will remain light enough to mitigate most flash flooding
concerns. The main areas to watch will be where any moderate
showers or embedded thunderstorms occur as these will contain
better rainfall rates around 0.25-0.5 inch per hour. Chances for
this appear to mainly only to be along southern coastal areas
of the CWA.

The 12Z REFS brings a 10-20% 10km neighborhood probability of
0.5"/hr rainfall rates across metro NJ, NYC and Long Island.
This is mainly for late Sunday where some of the REFS members
are indicating thunderstorms. Otherwise, 12Z HREF and 12Z REFS
10-km neighborhood probabilities for at least 0.25"/hr on
Saturday and Saturday night are around 60-90% south and mostly
20-50% across northern sections of the area. Note, these rates
are no where near as high as what occurred during our last
rainfall event. The 13Z NBM 10th/90th 72hr QPF ranges from
0.75-1.25" (10th) and 3-4" (90th).

In addition to the rain, breezy E-NE winds over the weekend
(15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph Saturday afternoon thru Sunday
afternoon. A few gusts to 40 mph possible along the coast late
Sat night thru Sun AM as a 40-50 kt jet overspreads the area.
The rain and onshore flow will keep highs mainly in the 50s to
lower 60s Sat and Sun (5 to 10 degrees below normal).

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A moderate rip current risk continues through this evening with
easterly wind waves building to 3 to 5 ft.

A high rip/longshore current risk expected for Saturday and
Sunday due to easterly swells continuing to build to 8-12 ft.
A Rip Current Statement has been issued on Saturday for all of
the ocean beaches.

There is also high surf potential for Saturday night into
Sunday, with minor beach erosion and flooding possible around
the times of high tide Sun aft and night.

The high rip current risk could linger into Monday with residual
5-ft long period ESE swell.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Global guidance is showing the potential for a shot of rain on
Wednesday. However, the forecast remains dry during the time.
Should this become more of the consensus, rain will likely need
to be added in subsequent forecasts, but for the time have
stayed with the dry NBM solution.

An upper low/trough will drop southeast across Quebec Wednesday
with developing surface low pressure along it. The system
appears progressive, so even if there is some rain on Wednesday,
dry weather should return for the end of next week. However,
the 12Z ECMWF remains unsettled with disturbances moving across
the area in the NW flow aloft. This could also mean cooler.
Uncertainty with this feature remains with regards to timing,
which still varies by 12-18 hours. Its also possible the low
may pass too far to the north, which would only give us a quick
passing chance of a shower rather than persistent rainfall.

Prior to the low, temperatures look to warm early in the week.
Tuesday looks dry with highs in the mid 70s/lower 80s.
Wednesday has the potential to reach the lower/mid 80s, but
ultimately that will all be dependent on the location and timing
of the expected low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure building to the north through this evening will
gradually give way to a frontal boundary approaching from the S
on Sat.

VFR through tonight, then gradually lowering ceilings and
visibilities in rain to MVFR on Saturday. Some local IFR vsby in
moderate rain is possible at the NYC metros/KHPN/KSWF after
20Z-21Z. KISP/KBDR may not drop to MVFR until late afternoon,
and KGON until after the forecast period.

E flow overnight less than 10 kt, then increase daytime Sat to
10-15 kt with G20-25kt mainly at the NYC metro terminals and
KISP.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR cond could be delayed until 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: IFR cond in rain at the NYC metros/KHPN/KSWF
will spread NE to the remaining terminals, but should take
until after midnight at KGON. E-NE wind gusts increase to 20-30
kt overnight Saturday, highest at the coastal terminals.

Sunday: IFR or lower with showers. An isolated afternoon tstm
possible. E-NE wind gusts 20-30 kt, mainly for the NYC metro and
coastal terminals.

Monday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower cond.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds likely subside below SCA oN the ocean for a period into
tonight, before increasing to SCA levels on all waters Sat
morning. However, ocean seas will continue to climb, so SCA
remains in effect tonight W or Moriches Inlet.

A period of SCA winds are likely across all waters late Saturday
through a large portion of Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will
be hoisted on all waters, as a result. Near-gale force gusts
also appear possible late Saturday night into Sunday on ocean
waters, especially outer ocean waters. Seas on the ocean will
continue to build to 10-12 ft Sat night into Sunday.

Winds will gradually subside below SCA levels late Sunday and
Sunday night, but ocean seas will likely remain elevated
through Monday in residual SE swell.

Monday night, waves drop below SCA levels. We`ll remain below
SCA criteria through Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ331-332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 2 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ335.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 11 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...Goodman/JT
MARINE...BR