Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products

(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)

Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY

To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List

County Warning Area MAP
Select Forecast Office:   Select Product:  
258
FXUS61 KOKX 131459
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1059 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temps near seasonable today and Friday, and slightly below
on Saturday, with progressively lowering humidity levels.

2) Moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms likely
Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night, with additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible Monday with passage of
frontal system.

3) Localized minor coastal flooding likely for vulnerable
locales along the south shore of Nassau county during the
nighttime high tide Tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mean northeast troughing continues through Saturday, with trough
axis sliding east Saturday Night.

The weak surface trough will likely linger across far eastern
portions of the region into this afternoon, with potential for
an isolated shower as weak shortwave moves through aloft in a
weakly unstable and decreasing moisture environment.

Temperatures will run near seasonable today and Friday (mid 80s
NE NJ/NYC metro and lower 80s elsewhere), then slightly below
seasonable on Saturday in wake of a stronger shortwave and cold
frontal passage Friday Night with Canadian high pressure
building in. Iso-sct low- top shower potential with this
passage, but instability appears below mixed phase region.
Progressively lower Tds expected Friday and Saturday in
persistent NW flow regime.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Global models continue in good agreement in a frontal system
approaching the area Sunday afternoon and passing through on
Monday.

Primary threat appears to be for a period of heavy rainfall Sun
aft/night with approaching shortwave lift and developing 30-35kt
llj converging sub-tropical PAC moisture ahead/along
approaching warm front w/ possible frontal wave. Iso-sct flash
flood potential exists with combo of modest forcing and focus
of a very moist (2+" PWATS), sub-tropical, and weakly unstable
airmass. Embedded thunderstorm activity possible in strong
shear/weak CAPE environment, but low predictability on
thunderstorm coverage and severity at this time.

Additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity possible
Monday aft/eve with slow cold frontal passage.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Astro tides tick down 1 to 2 tenths for tonight high tides, and
with weak wind/wave forcing, iso- sct areas of minor flooding
should be relegated to vulnerable shoreline communities on the
south shore of Nassau county.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak cold front/surface slowly moves across the terminals through
this evening. High pressure then follows tonight into Friday.

Mainly VFR.

Winds will veer to the W-WNW and increase into the afternoon.
Wind speeds 10-13 kt are expected with gusts 15-20 kt possible
in the afternoon. Winds weaken in the evening, becoming NW
around 5 kt or less overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Onset/end times of gusts at LGA, EWR, TEB may be off by 1-2
hours. JFK could also see occasional gusts in the afternoon.

Low probability for a brief wind shift to the SW 20-23z, but a
full sea breeze passage not expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR into the afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms
possible with a chance of MVFR or lower conditions late in the day
and at night.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Low probability for a shower.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Persistent NW flow expected today through Saturday. Occasional
nearshore gusts to 25 kt likely this afternoon and Saturday
afternoon in wake of frontal passage. Otherwise, sub-SCA
conditions expected.

SCA potential increases Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night for
ocean waters, and potentially all waters with strengthening
southerly flow ahead of approaching frontal system.

Rip Currents: 1-2 ft SE onshore swell and S/SW wind wave this week,
with weak seabreeze development will generally keep the rip risk low
through Friday. One caveat, recent new moon will increase the
tidal range, and could increase rip risk to moderate
particularly around the times of low tide each afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...NV

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

San Juan, PRHonolulu, HI Lake Charles, LA Pueblo, CO Corpus Christi, TX St. Louis, MO Reno, NV Raleigh, NC  Newport/Morehead City, NC Dodge City, KS Houston/Galveston, TX San Joaquin Valley/Hanford, CA Louisville, KY Fort Worth, TX Pittsburgh, PA Austin/San Antonio, TX Sacramento, CA Jackson, MS Phoenix, AZ Northern Indiana, IN Flagstaff, AZ Tallahassee, FL Springfield, MO Riverton, WY Blacksburg, VA Sioux Falls, SD El Paso Area, NM Columbia, SC Wilmington, NC Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Eureka, CA Midland/Odessa, TX Tucson, AZ Goodland, KS Huntsville, AL Amarillo, TX Norman, OK Lubbock, TX Marquette, MI Little Rock, AR Pendleton, OR Missoula, MT Binghamton, NY Boston, MA Green Bay, WI Billings, MT Baltimore/Washington San Diego, CA Tampa Bay, FL Morristown, TN Twin Cities, MN Brownsville, TX Portland, OR Des Moines, IA Memphis, TN Pocatello, ID San Angelo, TX Jacksonville, FL Aberdeen, SD Quad Cities, IA/IL Charleston, SC New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA Peachtree City, GA Shreveport, LA Grand Rapids, MI Medford, OR Albany, NY Wichita, KS Gray/Portland, ME Spokane, WA Boise, ID Denver/Boulder, CO Great Falls, MT Caribou, ME Key West, FL Miami-South Florida, FL New York City/Upton, NY Melbourne, FL Hastings, NE Paducah, KY Glasgow, MT Bismarck, ND Charleston WV Omaha/Valley, NE Buffalo, NY Jackson, KY Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO Gaylord, MI Cheyenne, WY Grand Forks, ND Detroit/Pontiac, MI Central Illinois, IL Burlington, VT Salt Lake City, UT Topeka, KS Nashville, TN Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI Albuquerque, NM Las Vegas, NV Wakefield, VA La Crosse, WI Birmingham, AL Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA Chicago, IL Seattle, WA Rapid City, SD Indianapolis, IN Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA Mobile/Pensacola State College, PA Cleveland, OH Elko, NV Wilmington, OH Grand Junction, CO North Platte, NE Tulsa, OK San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA Duluth, MN Anchorage, AK Fairbanks, AK Juneau, AK Tiyan, GU

Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.