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317
FXUS61 KOKX 100528
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
128 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation section for 06z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure, dry, near seasonable temperatures through
Saturday night.

2) Low pressure approaches Sunday through early Monday, widespread
rain, heavy at times, minor flooding potential, possible high
surf.

3) Showers possible Tuesday into Tuesday night with a chance of
a thunderstorm as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will build in tonight from the north and west.
Sky conditions will have more clouds compared to previous night
but still enough breaks in the clouds and light winds to allow
for radiational cooling. MAV/MET blend for lows used with vast
range from upper 30s to upper 50s.

Another dry and seasonable temperature day expected Saturday
with MAV/MET blend used again for forecast highs, mid 60s to
near 70.

Increasing, lowering, thickening clouds Sunday night along with
development of light onshore flow will make for relatively
warmer lows Saturday night. Min temperatures forecast range only
from lower 40s to mid 50s, a less vast range with the reduction
in radiational cooling.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong mid level trough approaches Sunday into Sunday night.
The axis of this trough moves in early Monday. At the surface,
the remnants of Isaias moisture will get entrained into a new
extratropical low pressure area that will be developing in the
mid- Atlantic Sunday. This extratropical low from the mid-
Atlantic is forecast to approach Sunday night with its center
moving across or just south of Long Island early Monday.

The precipitable waters are expected to increase to near 2
inches but highest amounts will be to the south of Long Island.
The low will have a cold core and associated frontal system when
it approaches the local area Sunday into Sunday night.
Regarding the structure, the low pressure`s associated warm
front approaches but stays south of Long Island. The local area
will have the associated occluded front move across early Monday
morning with the low center itself.

Synoptic lift from positive vorticity advection and increasing
atmospheric moisture will allow for widespread to rain to
develop Sunday, especially during the afternoon and continue
periodically through the night. Some models are relatively
stronger with the low and have some low level instability. The
rain at times will be moderate to potentially heavy. An embedded
thunderstorm will be possible.

With most of the rain expected to be steady stratiform, spread out
over a long period of time, mainly late Sunday morning through
Sunday night, no significant hydrologic impacts are expected. Most
likely impacts would be minor flooding for low lying, poor drainage
and urban areas with very low probability for localized flash
flooding. WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for much of the coastal sections of the region. Total
rain forecast near 0.75 to 1 inch with locally higher amounts
possible. Bulk of this is Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

For Sunday through Sunday night, winds increase from the east to
southeast, becoming increasingly gusty. NAM relatively stronger
compared to GFS. Forecast has winds increasing to near 10 to 15
mph, closer to 20 mph along the coast. Forecast gusts are mostly
near 20 to 30 mph. Possible peak gusts to near 35 to 40 mph. This
will be below advisory level thresholds.

Winds and rain trend down by early Monday with mainly dry
conditions returning Monday afternoon into Monday night. Low
pressure will be moving away to the east of the region.

With the increased onshore flow and fetch, seas increase and with
that the wave heights within the surf zone increase as well. There
is possible high surf along ocean beaches as flow and swell direction
is not much deviating from orthogonal to coastline.

There is some possibility of minor coastal flooding along the
shorelines, mainly within the South Shore Bays of NYC and Long
Island, for early Monday high tide cycles. To a lesser extent,
early Tuesday high tide cycles could have minor coastal flooding
as well, but this will dependent on how fast winds lower and
how much offshore flow there is.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Shortwave sharpens a passing longwave trough aloft Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will help push a cold front across the area
probably sometime during Tuesday night with best chances of
showers being Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low confidence at
this time for potential impacts being that this is 5-6 days
away, but models show enough CAPE (albeit mainly elevated) for a
chance of thunder, and shear profiles would support at least a
chance of strong gusts should there be enough CAPE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure in control through the TAF period.

VFR.

Light and variable winds or N/NW at 5 kt or lower overnight.
Winds become NE under 10 kt Saturday morning and shift to the E
then SE by Saturday afternoon and early evening hours. There is
a chance of sea breeze development for coastal terminals. Right
now, best chances are for KGON and KBDR.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds during Saturday afternoon may be a bit more S than what is
in the TAF should a sea breeze develop. The higher chance of
this is at KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: Showers developing through the morning with MVFR/IFR
likely by the afternoon and evening. Increasing E/SE winds
10-15g25kt afternoon and evening at the coast.

Monday: Showers and MVFR or lower ending early, becoming VFR
late morning into the afternoon.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers.
Isolated thunderstorm possible.

Wednesday: VFR. 20kt N/NW gusts possible in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Initially, high pressure is in control with below SCA
conditions for all waters. This continues through Saturday
night. Then on Sunday, SCA conditions will develop again first
with the ocean waters, then for some of the nearshore waters
Sunday afternoon. Sunday night, SCA conditions forecast for all
waters with the wind gusts near 25 to 30 kt. Ocean seas
forecast to build to near 7 to 10 ft Sunday into Sunday night.

There is some potential for gales at least on the outer ocean
late Sunday into Sunday night, which is highlighted in the HWO.
Otherwise, lower chances of gales farther north for rest of the
waters, with those waters likely staying within SCA range for
wind gusts.

Winds trend down by early Monday below SCA thresholds but ocean
seas will likely stay elevated in SCA range Monday into Monday
night.

Another chance of advisory conditions occurs late day Tuesday
into Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Looks like all ocean waters and most non-ocean waters would
reach advisory criteria.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/JM
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/JM