What's Happening In Newington

361
FXUS61 KOKX 062340
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat for heavy rainfall across the region is diminishing.
Light rainfall continues across eastern LI, CT and into the
Lower Hudson Valley. Updated for 00Z aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional rainfall this evening into the overnight will be
light to locally moderate at times with a diminishing flash
flood threat.

2) Temperatures will increase throughout the week with heat
index values in the 90s expected by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Band of heaviest rainfall per KOKX radar remains across eastern
Long Island and southeastern CT with some additional development
noted across the Atlantic. The area has seen a widespread 3-5"
of precipitation with a maximum of over 8" across parts of
Orange County NY. Rainfall rates have decreased markedly over
the past several hours, with any additional amounts less than
an inch likely. Surface low pressure emerged off the east coast
and was located south of the south shore of Long Island, slowly
moving east along a nearly stationary boundary. Any additional
development of rainfall will be associated with this feature as
it slowly treks east over the next few hours.

Have opted to leave the Flood Watch as is for the entire area
for now, but early cancellation is probable.

Rain will become lighter and more scattered late tonight into
Tuesday morning, although some CAMs suggest that there may be
more moderate showers across portions of CT through Tuesday
morning. Overall, the flooding risk is low on Tuesday given the
scattered nature of precip.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase throughout the
week as an upper ridge builds in from the west. Friday appears to be
the hottest day of the week with highs in the upper 80s and lower
90s likely. Dew points may be as high as the lower 70s which may
allow heat index values to approach the mid to upper 90s with
isolated heat indices up to 100 possible if temps trend warmer. At
this point, guidance favors heat index values staying below Heat
Advisory criteria and temps/heat index values might even end up
being lower than currently forecast due to rain chances during the
afternoon and early evening. The heat will be short-lived as heat
index values fall back into the 80s and lower 90s over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A wave of low pressure slowly travels along a front located
south of the region through the TAF period.

IFR to scattered MVFR conditions will continue into this
evening before deteriorating to LIFR tonight. Precipitation will
continue to taper off from southwest to northeast, with dry
conditions returning to the terminals towards daybreak Tuesday.
As any lingering precipitation comes to an end early Tuesday
conditions will improve back to IFR, with MVFR conditions
expected by 18Z.

E-ENE winds around 10-15 kt will gradually shift to the NE
overnight and NNE Tuesday morning. Gusts to near 25 kt remain
possible along the coast into this evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely to refine the timing of flight category
changes and the end time of the showers.

Fluctuation between categories is possible at times.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon: MVFR conditions expected, with VFR returning
at night.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory has been extended to 18Z/2 PM from the
Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point due to persistent enhanced NE
flow. Waves may remain close to 5 ft in that area through
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, but gusts are very marginal and
confidence is too low to warrant extending the advisory into
Wednesday. Other marine headlines remain as is with all other
Small Craft Advisories ending at 6 AM Tuesday morning.

Rip Currents: Increasing E flow should increase the risk back
to moderate today. Flow continues to shift out of the NE but
given persisting E/SE swell a moderate is maintained for
Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
     340-345-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AM/DBR
AVIATION...FEB/DBR
MARINE...AM