What's Happening In Newington

792
FXUS61 KOKX 040426
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1126 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Special weather statement issued to address remaining pockets of
freezing rain into the overnight across parts of the interior.

Coverage of a potential glaze of ice Wednesday night into Thursday
morning has expanded through the rest of southern CT and portions
of the Lower Hudson Valley. However, confidence remains low at
this time, with only a slight chance of freezing rain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Pockets of freezing rain to linger across portions of the
interior into the overnight with otherwise plain rain.

2) Low potential for a glaze of ice Wednesday night into
Thursday morning across the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT.

3) Above normal temperatures and generally rainy late week into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The associated warm front stalls near the area tonight for a
short time before dropping back to the south as low pressure
deepens east of New England early Wednesday. High pressure will
then builds across the area later into Wednesday.

With some of the interior at or just below freezing, expect some
pockets of freezing rain to continue into the overnight. Special
weather statement issued to address this. Additional ice
accumulations generally a light glaze. Localized higher amounts
are possible. With only trace ice amounts and most temperatures
at or above freezing, let the winter weather advisory expire and
went with special weather statement instead.

Temperatures tonight will slowly rise through the 30s.

Precipitation tapers off overnight into very early Wednesday
morning. There could be some brief drizzle or freezing drizzle
for parts of the interior before all precipitation ends.

With the fog development especially for those locations at or
just below freezing, the freezing fog and leftover patchy ice
will make for slippery conditions on any untreated surfaces into
early Wednesday morning.

Precipitation (mostly rain) ends by daybreak Wednesday with
high pressure and dry weather on tap. It will also be mild with
highs well into the 40s and in some cases away from the water
into the lower 50s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A warm front will gradually approach the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. Ahead of it, a very weak pressure
gradient will be in place over the area as high pressure is slow to
weaken and shift offshore. With the weak pressure gradient leading
to light winds, and mostly clear skies expected to start the night,
areas across the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT may be able to
drop down to near freezing or below. Then as precipitation moves
into the area this could result in some locations seeing a brief
period of freezing rain before a changeover to all plain rain. This
is a very low chance at this time. Backed off PoPs compared to the
NBM because forecast soundings are way too dry early Wednesday night
to support any precipitation. Stuck close to NBM temps for now but
these will be very sensitive based on winds, clouds and even fog
development. Regardless, if any ice accumulation does occur, it will
likely be limited to a glaze or a hundredth of an inch.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The warm front slowly moves south of the region late tonight
early into Wednesday, with eventually high pressure building in
later on Wednesday.

Mainly light plain rain for all terminals until around 07-09Z
Wednesday. The rain may very well transition to more of a
drizzle into early Wednesday morning, especially east of NYC
terminals.

Categories, IFR to LIFR through tonight into early Wednesday
morning, then MVFR for rest of Wednesday morning into very early
Wednesday afternoon. VFR returns thereafter.

Winds remain around 5kt or less much of the time through the TAF
period, generally more NE tonight and more westerly component on
Wednesday. However, there are quite a few times wind direction
will likely be quite variable through the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Improvement to VFR may be off by 2-4 hrs early Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR initially. Lowering to MVFR/IFR mainly
late at night with a chance of rain.

Thursday: MVFR or lower with periods of rain and fog.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers,
with VFR more likely by afternoon.

Saturday: MVFR/VFR with a slight chance of showers.

Sunday: Possible MVFR or lower early with a chance of showers,
otherwise mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal SCA conditions (5-6 ft seas) are expected on the ocean
waters tonight into Wednesday due to a period of southwesterly
winds. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean
waters. High pressure follows on Wednesday.

Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on the waters
midweek through the end of the week. However, brief 5ft waves are
possible on the ocean waters on Friday.

An increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold front on Saturday will
bring the next chance for more widespread SCA conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/JT/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JT/DW