NewingtonWeather.COM

846
FXUS61 KOKX 060852
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
352 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes, with only a slight westward expansion with
regard to the axis of moderate to heavy rain for today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet weather makes a return, with a period of steady to heavy
rain across the eastern half of the area today, and possibly
into early this evening across far eastern sections.

2) Drier and cooler air returns during the weekend into early next
week, but temperatures will remain slightly above average for early
November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A slug of high PWATs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches along with a slow moving
cold front with a long S fetch ahead of the front will result in the
first meaningful rain in quite some time. The airmass in place is
anomalously moist / humid for this time of year, exceeding the 90th
percentile climatologically. Dewpoints are primarily in the 60s, and
this along with thermal and frontal forcing will produce a moderate
to heavy rainfall across the majority of the region. The heaviest
rain moves in at the tail end of the morning rush from the NYC metro
on east. Initially during the late morning some of the moderate to
heavy rain, or at least the western edge of it gets into a portion
of the Lower Hudson Valley into SW CT. However, the bulk of the rain
fall east of the NYC metro in a stripe primarily through Central and
Eastern LI up into Central and Eastern So. CT. Much less rain is
expected across far western and northwestern portions of the region.
This event marks the first meaningful QPF / rain event across the
area. A good portion of the NBM suite is comprised of REFS members,
with these members often producing on the upper portion of the QPF
umbrella during experimental use. The max hourly rainfall rates from
the overnight REFS membership were noticeably higher than the HRRR
guidance. Splitting the difference with more of a leaning towards
the HRRR was the approach taken. The heaviest rain looks to take
place from 12 to 16z, especially for the metro and Western LI. This
time frame shifts later further NE across the area, and closer to
15z to 20-21z further into Eastern LI and Eastern/Northeastern CT.
The difficult part of the forecast is whether far eastern and
northeastern portions of the area will see a second slug of higher
hourly rates and heavy rain into the first half of the evening. If
this does materialize then portions of the north fork of LI and into
New London County may see 3 to 4 inch amounts with more of a
possibility of flood impacts from heavy rainfall.  For now going
closer to 2 to 3 inches for this part of the area, with a reasonable
worst case of 3 to 4 inches and this is where WPC has put far
Eastern So. CT in a slight risk of excessive rainfall, with a
marginal risk into a larger portions of the area extending as far
west and the eastern half of NE NJ, NYC metro and Lower Hudson
Valley (primarily Westchester Co.). Where the SSW to NNE axis of
heavy rain can stay in place the longest will determine how much
fall where, with the Canadian high res guidance for the most part
furthest east in the NBM suite, and the RRFS (Operational) on most
of its runs the furthest west.  The LLJ may aid a second slug /
round of heavier precip further east later in the afternoon and
possibly into the early evening. Again, if this does occur then the
potential for rainfall impacts increases for this area. For flooding
impacts to occur hourly rainfall rates would have to exceed at least
0.75 inches for multiple hours with training of heavy rainfall
bands. Was somewhat on the fence with respect to a Flood Watch for
for Eastern So. CT, but after collab with neighboring office chose
to hold off on issuance. The reasons for holding off on Watch
issuance is the dry antecedent conditions and to a lesser
degree the time of year as it will be difficult to achieve 1
inch or greater hourly rates for multiple hours with confidence
of watch issuance only in the 25 to 30 percent range for Eastern
CT zone(s). Also feel the RRFS may be overdoing the convective
aspects just a touch with an inspection of its reflectivity and
updraft helicity fields. In any event, this will be the first
test case for the newly implemented RRFS and its ensemble
members.

For the afternoon hours further west (towards and after 18z), and
towards 22-00z further east the rain is expected to taper off
gradually from west to east. Clouds should begin to break up once
the front pushes through from west to east into the evening and
overnight. This will set up an improving trend to begin the weekend.
However, by the afternoon during Saturday and tight and concentrated
core of upper level energy approaches from the west and pivots
through during the early evening. This should bring more afternoon
cloud cover along with some scattered showers due to instability and
a cold pool aloft. Not a washout, but the chance for unsettled
conditions for a few hours late on Saturday / Saturday evening. The
relatively higher chance of shower activity will be across northern
sections compared to southern sections.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
By early Saturday morning dew points begin to drop as cooler and
less humid air filters into the region in the wake of the cold front.
A west flow of drier air results in a mild day with temperatures
still above normal, just not quite as warm as previous days.  Dew
points fall into the 40s Saturday night into Sunday with dry
conditions prevailing with more in the way of sunshine on Sunday.
Low temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night will be primarily
in the 40s, to around 50 both nights in the metro. Daytime highs on
Sunday will be around 60, which is still slightly above average for
this time of year. The breeze also picks up noticeably by Sunday as
the region will be between high pressure attempting to build down to
the southwest and occluded low pressure to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak cold front approaches from the west overnight and will
very slowly work across the area on Friday. The front likely
moves offshore Friday night.

Widespread IFR conditions will overspread the remainder of the
area overnight along with multiple rounds of showers, possibly
an isolated thunderstorm. Widespread moderate to occasionally
heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop around or
shortly after 12Z Friday. KSWF will be on the NW periphery of
the rain on Friday, likely escaping the lower conditions. As the
cold front passes through the area Friday afternoon/evening,
conditions are forecast to gradually improve. It is looking more
likely for a return to VFR for NYC terminals before 00z
Saturday.

Winds will generally be S-SSW at 10 kt or less overnight with
gusts to around 20kt lingering at the eastern terminals,
especially at KISP. Winds may even become light and variable N
and W of NYC terminals. The cold frontal passage from west to
east on Friday will be slow to occur and latest guidance has
trended a bit slower. It now looks like the NYC terminals will
not switch around to a westerly component until the early
afternoon hours, and as late as around 03Z Saturday at KGON.
Wind shifts are likely to vary by 1-2 hours. Even with the wind
shift the flow will be weak and may even vary between SW to NW.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories overnight into
Friday.

Timing of wind shift on Friday may be off by 1-3 hours and even
then it could be light and variable behind the front.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR at all terminals except for KGON, which could
remain sub-VFR for most of the night. There is also concern
that with light winds and residual low- level moisture, there
could some patchy IFR/MVFR elsewhere.

Saturday: Showers possible with MVFR, mainly in the afternoon
and first half of Saturday night. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt
Saturday night.

Sunday-Monday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions will prevail today for the central and
eastern ocean waters, with small craft conditions somewhat more
occasional at times for the western ocean. A small craft advisory is
in effect for today for all ocean zones, with the central and
eastern ocean having the advisory extend through 07z tonight.

Conditions should then relax momentarily with sub advisory
conditions returning early Saturday morning. However, towards the
late afternoon and evening on Saturday small craft conditions
develop for the ocean waters, followed by the non-ocean waters
during Saturday evening. Small craft conditions should prevail
through much of Sunday, followed by sub advisory conditions only for
a short while for the non-ocean zones late Sunday afternoon and
early Sunday evening. Otherwise small craft conditions are expected
to prevail much of the time across all waters through the day Monday.
Sub advisory conditions may return for a short while Monday night,
however marginal small craft conditions should linger into Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 6:
KEWR: 66/2022
KBDR: 62/2024
KNYC: 66/2022
KLGA: 65/2024
KJFK: 64/2022
KISP: 65/2022


Record Precipitation:

November 6:
KEWR: 2.12/1911
KBDR: 0.54/2018
KNYC: 1.47/1911
KLGA: 0.96/1963
KJFK: 1.42/1963
KISP: 0.71/1963

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JE