What's Happening In Newington

271
FXUS61 KOKX 250705
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
305 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Marine Weather Statement was issued for cold water safety
concerns today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated heavy downpours this morning with improving
conditions through the afternoon.

2) High risk of rip currents through the day today.

3) Warmer and mainly dry the rest of the week, with some
chances of afternoon showers midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front briefly pushes north of the area this morning before a
weak cold front and associated shortwave aloft move through.
Accompanying the cold front will be a brief period of showers with
embedded heavy downpours that will move through from west to east
during the morning hours. Pwats along the coastal areas are still
progged to reach just under 2 inches before the front reaches the
area. This is well above the max moving average for the OKX sounding
climatology. While instability is very limited and these
features are relatively weak, the high moisture content could
result in isolated 0.75 to 1.00 inch per hour rainfall rates.
These showers will be moving quick and flash flooding is not
expected, but given the saturated ground these heavier showers
could cause urban and poor drainage flooding. Confidence in
thunder is very low, but can not be completely ruled out. Model
soundings show a CAPE profile lying mainly below -10C.

This activity will likely be east of NYC by noon and then southeast
of Long Island a few hours later. Dry conditions are then expected
with even some breaks of sun. Temperatures are expected to warm to
the mid to upper 70s inland and lower 70s at the coast.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
While conditions improve this afternoon with clearing/drying
skies and warmer temperatures, the high risk of rip currents is
expected all day. This is due to lingering 5 ft 8-9s swell out
of the E/SE.
4
The swell lowers closer to 3 ft for Tuesday, with limited
effects from a SW win under 10 mph. This will result in mainly a
moderate risk of rip currents, although there is potential for
the morning hours to be borderline high risk as the swell
gradually decreases.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Warmer temperatures return Tuesday through the end of the week
with 80s expected Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a slight
chance of afternoon showers on Wednesday with a cold front,
mainly for the Lower Hudson Valley and souther CT. More
uncertainty thereafter, but a shortwave moving through aloft
could then trigger some afternoon showers on Thursday for
eastern CT and eastern LI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front approaches early this morning and gradually
slide through this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight.

IFR/LIFR conditions in -DZ and BR/FG for morning push. Brief
and localized VLIFR possible. A band of showers, with isolated
+SHRA (low and sparse TSRA threat) moves W to E through the
area btwn 12z and 17z. Conditions will gradually improve to MVFR
this afternoon, then VFR generally aft 22Z.

Light and variable flow early this morning, becoming light
VRB/SW for morning push, and then W/SW 5-10 kt in the afternoon,
before becoming light and variable again this evening.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

LIFR VSBY may be more occasional than prevailing. Low and
sparse TSRA threat between 12z and 15z.

VFR likely for eve push.

Patchy ground fog possible for Tue AM push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: VFR, although ground fog possible for outlying
terminals.

Tuesday-Friday: VFR. Chance of aft/eve shra Wed and Thu.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters
due to lingering 5 to 6 ft seas. This will taper off from west
to east tonight.

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for all waters until 11 AM for
1 NM visibility for lower. Some areas may clear out earlier
after a round of showers moves through.

A Marine Weather Statement has been issued for cold water safety
concerns today. While air temperatures will warm into the 70s
skies will clear/dry, water temperatures remain in the 50s.The
cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and
physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the
water.

Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected Tuesday through
the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JT