What's Happening In Newington

563
FXUS61 KOKX 100020
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
820 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is decreasing for a widespread rainfall event Sunday
night into Monday, especially across the interior.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of of fog tonight into early Sunday morning.

2) Chance of showers Sunday afternoon and then rain Sunday
night into Monday.

3) Unsettled weather expected toward mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Confidence is higher for fog development tonight into early
tomorrow morning after the rain ends, especially for Long Island
and southern CT, where the fog could become locally dense late
tonight. Should dense fog become widespread, a dense fog
advisory may need to be issued.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Sunday morning and early afternoon looks to be mostly dry between
systems as a cold front approaches from the west. Scattered showers
are possible from mid to late afternoon from NYC north/west. A more
organized rainfall event is then expected Sunday night into Monday
as an amplifying upper trough sends the cold front across, with one
or more weak frontal waves passing well to the south and east.
Another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of beneficial rainfall is expected, with
lesser amounts of 1/10 to 1/4 inch NW of NYC.

Highs on Sunday have the potential to near 80 degrees in portions of
NE NJ and NYC metro. Otherwise, highs will be in the 70s across the
area. The chance for thunder appears low in the afternoon/evening,
but a few thunderstorms are possible given strong warming at the
surface if timed well with lift from the frontal boundary.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Low pressure over the Northern Plains Tuesday is expected to
dive southeast over the southern to central Great Lakes region
Tuesday night, then eject off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late in the
day Thursday into Thursday night. This coastal low then slowly
heads northeast through the rest of the forecast period, with
some slow strengthening.

An inverted trough extending northward from the low as it passes
south of the area will likely be the primary focus for showers for
late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Of course, this far out, there
are timing differences with the track and strength of the low, which
would lead to differences in timing of any precipitation and
amounts. This also leads to high uncertainty with the track of the
eventual coastal low that passes south and east of the area at the
end of the week, and whether we see any rainfall as it heads out to
sea.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Terminals will be between systems as one exits to the east
tonight and a cold front approaches from the west. The latter is
expected to pass through the area Sunday evening.

The combination of light winds, clearing skies, and residual
low-level moisture is likely to produce widespread IFR/LIFR
conditions overnight. The highest chance for LIFR appears to be
from JFK/LGA/HPN on east across Long Island and Southern
Connecticut. Conditions then improve to VFR after 12Z Sunday
with a chance of sub-VFR conditions in showers during the
afternoon and evening hours. There is some uncertainty with
the timing of development and then dissipation of the lower
conditions.

Winds will weaken this evening, becoming light and variable
overnight. A light W-SW flow develops Sunday morning, increasing
to around 10 kt in the afternoon. There is the potential for
gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon, but confidence in not high
due to uncertainty in the depth of the mixed layer. Winds will
then veer to the NW-N in the evening behind the cold front.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely overnight into Sunday morning due to some
uncertainty with the timing of lowering categories tonight, and
then the improvement on Sunday.

Chance of gusts up to 20 kt Sunday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: Chance of showers and MVFR in the evening. Showers
likely, especially closer to the coast at night along with MVFR,
potentially IFR at times.

Monday: Chance of showers and MVFR early, especially near the
coast, then VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt possible in the
afternoon.

Wednesday: Showers developing through the day. MVFR or lower
conditions. S winds G15-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday: Showers possible with MVFR or lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
5-ft seas are expected to linger into this evening on the ocean
waters east of Fire Island Inlet, but dropping below by
midnight. Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, another period of
5 ft seas is possible on eastern ocean waters with a cold
frontal passage. Below SCA- criteria is then expected to remain
through Tue Night.

Waves build late in the day Wednesday as a southerly flow increases
due to an approaching low pressure system to the west. SCA
conditions are possible for the ocean waters for a brief period from
Wednesday afternoon into the first half of Wednesday night.
Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA
criteria.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345-
     355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP/BR/DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/BR/DW