What's Happening In Newington

769
FXUS61 KOKX 101754
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
154 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With visibility improving across Long Island, the Dense Fog
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

The marine dense fog
advisory remains in effect until noon for the ocean waters and
Great South Bay as the dense fog remains in place in these
locations.

Increased high temperatures for today, mainly across the NYC
metro area as hourly temperatures were higher than previously
forecast. Highs in these locations will likely reach the middle
to upper 70s, with an isolated 80 degree reading not out of the
question.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably mild / warm air will be in place through Wednesday and
most of Wednesday night. Noticeably cooler with sea breeze development
for coastal and eastern portions of the area late today and this
evening. Areas of low clouds / fog develop again during the evening and
nighttime hours to the east for coastal sections for tonight and
potentially for a portion of Wednesday evening.

2) A strong frontal system impacts the area Wednesday night into
Thursday with the next chance for rain, likely changing to and ending
as some wet snow later Thursday, followed by noticeably cooler and more
seasonable air at the end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Temperatures climb well above normal as 850 mb temperatures climb over
the next few days to +10 C today, and approaching +12 C on Wednesday.
However, with most water temperatures in the upper half of the 30s to
around 40 degrees, expect afternoon and evening temperatures to fall
with the development of a wind off the cooler waters for coastal and
eastern portions of the area for the afternoon and evening hours. More
of a westerly component to the sfc wind will mean more places further
east will stay warmer for a few hours longer during the daytime hours
for today compared to Wednesday. With the development of diurnally
driven winds off the colder waters, look for low cloud and fog
development along and closer to the coast once again for tonight into
Wednesday morning. Temperatures on Wednesday likely will not be quite
as warm, but still averaging above normal for much of the area. This
will be mainly due to more of a south to south-southeast wind off the
colder waters of the Atlantic. Also there will likely be more in the
way of cloud cover, especially later in the day.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A potent mid level shortwave approaches mid week. Enough ridging out
ahead of the disturbance should keep the majority of our area dry
through the day Wednesday with perhaps far NW sections seeing the
chance of some showers, thus lowered PoPs down some from the NBM during
the day Wednesday. The chances of rain increase into Wednesday evening
/ night with a gusty southerly flow ahead of the boundary. The cold
front should pivot through Thursday morning, so after a mild Wednesday
night, the winds switch quickly to the NW on Thursday with a cP air
mass moving in. Rain is likely to switch over to wet snow showers on
the back side of the front as the upper level flow becomes somewhat
parallel to the frontal boundary as the front attempts to behave like a
anafront. Boundary temps will be noticeably milder than aloft so any
wet snowflakes will have difficulty sticking. Liquid precip amounts are
likely to range around a quarter of an inch on average across the area,
with slightly higher amounts across far NW sections. Temperatures
during the day Thursday with gusty / blustery conditions will fall
through the 40s and likely into the 30s before day`s end. By Thursday
night most places will fall below freezing. Temperatures will then
settle right near the seasonal norms for Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak high pressure will remain offshore through tonight. A
frontal system approaches during Wednesday.

VFR. There is a chance of IFR to LIFR late tonight into early
Wednesday morning at KISP and KGON, although there is
uncertainty as to how widespread stratus and fog will be, so
only have TEMPO for the lower conditions.

S-SW flow with sea breeze flow, possibly reaching KLGA and KEWR,
KTEB late afternoon. Winds become light S at the NYC metro
terminals, to light and variable at the outlying terminals.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected. There is a very low chance
of IFR fog and stratus briefly reaching KJFK toward Wednesday
morning.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday afternoon: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers mainly at the
NYC terminals and west with MVFR possible late day. S winds
G15-20kt late in the afternoon mainly for the NYC metros and
KISP. LLWS also possible late in the afternoon E of the NYC
metros.

Wednesday night: Showers likely especially NW of the NYC metros,
with MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance of a thunderstorm in
the evening. S winds 10-15G20kt, becoming SW late. LLWS
expected.

Thursday: Showers likely, possibly mixing with snow before
ending late in the day. MVFR or lower conditions possible. W
winds 10-15G20kt, becoming NW 15-20G25kt during the afternoon.

Thursday night: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt early in the evening.

Friday: Mainly VFR. S winds 15G25kt in the afternoon.

Friday night: Mainly VFR. Chance of rain or snow showers with
MVFR or lower cond. Winds becoming SW-W 10-15G20-25kt. LLWS
possible late at KGON/KISP.

Saturday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower with a chance of rain and snow.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Dense fog for the eastern waters is expected through late morning, with
another round of low clouds and fog expected tonight.

Otherwise, sub advisory conditions will prevail on the waters through
the first half of Wednesday. A southerly flow increases ahead of a cold
front during Wednesday afternoon as small craft conditions are expected
to return to the ocean waters during the late afternoon, and for the
remainder of the waters either late Wednesday night or by Thursday
morning. Small craft conditions should persist across the waters on
Thursday as the winds will be gusty out of the NW. Sub advisory
conditions should return during Thursday night. Small craft conditions
are expected to return to the waters by Friday afternoon on a S flow
ahead of the next frontal system as small craft conditions could linger
into Saturday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are record high temperatures for Tuesday March 10th.

EWR: 81/2016
BDR: 70/2006
NYC: 79/2016
LGA: 78/2016
JFK: 71/2006
ISP: 73/2016

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE