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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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405 FXUS61 KOKX 240803 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 403 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Tranquil weather with slightly below normal temperatures and lower humidity will continue into the weekend. 2) A frontal system will bring our next chance at unsettled weather Monday night into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure over the Northeast today will push offshore this afternoon, providing continued dry conditions, slightly below normal temperatures (up to 5 degrees below normal) and lower humidity levels. With the weak pressure gradient the winds will remain fairly light. High pressure drifts northeast into the weekend as an upper level trough from Canada approaches. Dry weather will continue. Weekend high temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... An amplifying trough sets up over the eastern US Saturday night. A couple of low pressure systems will ride a frontal boundary well offshore, with no impact to the area Monday morning. Another shortwave approaches from Ontario on Monday, bringing a frontal system and possibly a low pressure system through from Monday night into Wednesday and possibly lingering into Wednesday night. This frontal system will bring unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms expected. Exact impacts and timing are still uncertain given differences in guidance at that time range. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure resides over the area throughout the TAF period. VFR. Light to calm winds become light out of the NE this morning, then shift SE-S 10 kt or less in the afternoon. This should take until about 20Z at KLGA as an ENE Sound breeze locks in. Winds go light and variable Fri night. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Late Friday night through Monday morning: VFR. Monday afternoon and night: MVFR cond likely. Chance of showers and possibly a tstm from the NYC metros north/west. Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond expected, with showers likely and chance of tstms especially in the afternoon and evening. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... With high pressure over the waters and remaining nearby into the weekend, a prolonged stretch of sub advisory conditions should take place through the weekend and to begin next week. Marginal SCA conditions may return to the ocean waters toward Tuesday into Tuesday night. Rip Currents: Rip current risk should be moderate on Friday and Saturday with a slight decrease in wave heights and swell, and winds remaining fairly light. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...JE MARINE...JP |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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