What's Happening In Newington

267
FXUS61 KOKX 041759
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
159 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather today expanded to include
most of the local forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One last day of dangerous heat and humidity expected today.

2) Slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and
early this evening.

3) Slight risk of flash flooding for NE NJ and Orange/Rockland
counties in NY from late day Sunday into Sunday night, also for
the rest of the lower Hudson Valley into NYC and SW CT
on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Dangerous heat will continue today. This level of heat can be
deadly for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Impacts
to transportation infrastructure (rail, bridge, road/tarmac),
electrical (high demand) and water systems (open hydrants
reducing water pressure) have been noted with previous heat
events of this severity and duration. On average, heat kills
more people than any other weather related hazard.

Replaced Extreme Heat Warnings with Heat Advisories inland and
for the south fork of Long Island today, to reflect lower
severity of the heat in those areas as high temps in those
areas remain in the lower 90s. For the rest of the area, high
temps 95-100 combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s could
still result in heat index values of 105 or a little higher.

Relief is on the way for early next week as temps rise no
higher than the 80s on Sunday, and the 70s to near 80 on Mon.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the slight risk (2/5)
for severe tstms through most of the local forecast area this
afternoon and evening.

As cold front approaches today, tstms will move into the area
late this afternoon into this evening. Primary threat once again
will again be damaging winds as DCAPE values should be high
enough to enhance downdrafts. While storms should be progressive
today, still can`t rule out the heaviest ones from dropping a
fast inch of rain.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Additional chances for showers and tstms expected for early next
week. The 00Z HREF signals a 30-50% chance of for 1 inch of
rain and 20-30% chance of 2 inches in less than 3 hours west of
the Hudson for late day Sunday with an initial weak wave of low
pressure, then there is potential for an additional 1-2 inches
of rain Mon into Mon night with a stronger wave of low pressure.
Storm total QPF from 12Z Sunday through 12Z Tue ranges from
1-5-2.5 inches, with locally higher amts possible especially NW
of NYC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front approaches and moves through the terminals into
tonight.

VFR outside showers and thunderstorms. Pushed back start of
PROB30s for TSRA to 20Z for most terminals based on latest
guidance. Brief wind gusts above 40 kt possible with any
thunderstorm. Activity wanes after 3Z Sun. SHRA and TSRA
chances return Sunday afternoon, PROB30 introduced for now.

WNW flow around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible today.
Direction may be more variable at times between NW and SW at
some terminals. Winds back more to the SW at the coastal
terminals into late afternoon, or S/SSW at JFK. Winds look to be
highly variable this evening with the cold front nearby, this
likely persists into the Sun AM push. Light SE flow on Sunday
under 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction may vary between NW and SW at times this
afternoon.

Locally higher gusts than what is indicated in the TAFs possible
today with the strongest tstms.

Amendments are likely for the timing of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and night.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: Sub VFR at times with showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon and overnight.

Monday and Tuesday: MVFR or lower with periods of showers and
possible thunderstorms. SE flow Monday becoming NW on Tuesday.

Wednesday: VFR. N wind turns S in afternoon.

Thursday: VFR. Light S flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts in persistent E flow Mon-Tue should reach 20 kt and
may occasionally 25 kt on the Sound Mon afternoon, and on the
ocean Tue afternoon. Ocean seas should also reach 4 ft from Mon
Afternoon and continue into Tue night or Wed. No marine hazards
issued attm.

Rip Currents...

For area beaches today, the risk of rip currents starts off low,
before becoming moderate this afternoon as winds increase a
bit, along with some long period swells.

The risk drops to low on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 4:
KNYC: 102/1949
KEWR: 105/1949
KJFK: 101/2010
KBDR: 98/1949
KLGA:100/1949
KISP: 97/2010

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4:
KISP: 76/2002


Record Precipitation:

July 6:
KEWR: 1.15/1958
KBDR: 0.75/2024
KJFK: 1.03/2005
KISP: 0.92/2006

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>008.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>070-081.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ071>075-078>080-176>179.
NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...Goodman