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069
FXUS61 KOKX 130026
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
826 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quick moving low pressure passes to the north Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2) Minor coastal flood benchmarks could be briefly reached along
some vulnerable portions of the coastline during the Tuesday
morning/early afternoon high tide cycle.

3) A strong frontal system could produce thunderstorms on
Friday, then strong winds and much colder temperatures over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

As the low that impacted the area yesterday continues to move east,
high pressure over SE Canada will try to nose in from the northeast
into tomorrow, providing for a backdoor cold front that pushes into
the area Tuesday morning. The cloud cover and cooler air associated
with this airmass will keep temperatures over the easternmost areas
cooler than the western areas where mostly sunny to partly cloudy
conditions should persist under a lighter and more SE flow. Highs
for the western CWA on Tuesday will be into the low to middle 70s
with eastern locations likely not breaking out of the 60s.

The backdoor cold front likely halts its progression into the late
morning as a progressive moving low pressure system slides to the
north of the area. This will bring a more S/SE flow into much of the
area through the afternoon. The low quickly moves north of the area
with a cold front eventually moving through by late Wednesday.
Much of the region should remain dry as the greatest forcing
remains to the north, though a stray shower or thunderstorm
isn`t entirely ruled out, especially for the northern and
eastern most tiers of the CWA.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Elevated water levels driven by a recent new moon and low pressure
that passed through over the weekend may allow some coastal
locations to briefly enter minor flood stage during Tuesday`s late
AM/early PM high tide cycle. Inundation up to a half foot is
possible. Best chances of occurrence are along vulnerable spots in S
Nassau and along portions of the western LI Sound in SW CT. Some of
the eastern bays of LI may also approach minor flood benchmarks. A
Coastal Flood Statement was issued for southern Nassau and southern
Fairfield. Water levels then look to fall enough to preclude any
further flooding beyond this cycle.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...

Global models have been consistently indicating a strong cold
frontal passage for the end of the week.

The 12Z GFS, CMC, ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and the AI-GFS all have the timing
of the front sometime between Friday afternoon and very early
Saturday morning. There will be good shear with the system, however
the amount of instability will depend on the timing of the front and
any maritime cloud cover. As a result, confidence in strong to
severe thunderstorms is low at this time. However, due to the setup,
especially with a potential 170+ kt H3 jet over ON/QC, it will need
to be watched.

Confidence is higher for strong winds and colder temperatures behind
the fropa and into the weekend. Deep mixing on nwly flow could push
winds to advy levels. In addition, some subfreezing temps will be
possible as thicknesses plummet. For Sat night, the NBM has lows in
the 30s for almost the entire area. The MEX however is even colder
with widespread upr 20s despite the wind. Because the cold airmass
appears to be highly transitory, did not stray from the NBM at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There will be an approaching back door cold front late tonight into
early Tuesday. This front stalls within the region briefly
thereafter on Tuesday and then shifts back northeast as a warm front.

For NYC terminals and KSWF, a VFR TAF period is expected. For KHPN
and to the east of NYC terminals, MVFR and in the case of KGON, even
IFR ceilings are expected for some time on Tuesday with otherwise a
VFR TAF period expected for those terminals. For all terminals,
there is a possibility for MVFR to IFR fog late tonight into
Tuesday morning but did not include in TAFs at the moment due to
lower probability.

Winds for TAF period, NW flow initially becomes more variable
direction tonight with wind speeds mainly less than 10 kts. NYC
terminals will hold to near 10 kt winds this evening before
diminishing late this evening into overnight. More southerly flow
expected Tuesday with wind speeds near 7-10 kts, more easterly
component east of NYC terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low probability of MVFR stratus early Tuesday and late in the TAF
period.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: MVFR possible with a brief rain shower, mainly east
of NYC terminals. Occasional SW gusts 15-20 kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Westerly gusts 15-20 kt mainly during
the day.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Late at night, possible MVFR or lower with
increasing likelihood of showers.

Friday: MVFR or lower with showers. S-SW wind gusts near 20-25
kt with some peak gusts near 30 kt. NW gusts near 30 kt at
night.

Saturday: VFR. NW gusts near 25-35 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to diminish as low pressure tracks further
away from the waters. The SCA is in effect for the ocean thru
tonight for lingering high seas.

Winds and seas may hit SCA criteria on the ocean late Tue into
Wed with a weak frontal system moving by. The remaining waters
are expected to remain below SCA levels at this time.

A strong frontal system will then impact the waters Friday and
Saturday. SCA conditions are likely on all waters for Friday,
then NW gales are possible on all waters behind the system
Friday night and into the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR/MW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MW