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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY

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188
FXUS61 KOKX 070550
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
150 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Updated for aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another warm day Sunday along with isolated to scattered
showers.

2) Heat and humidity build again mid to late week, with a
return of unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Skies will clear overnight.

Another shortwave trough passing through Sunday afternoon could
still produce isolated to scattered showers and possibly a
tstm, with the better chances across SE CT. Highs will range
from the lower 80s to around 90. This is 5 to 10 degrees above
normal.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The pattern could become a bit more unsettled mid to late week
as high pressure shifts offshore, and a warm, moist flow
develops around the ridge. With this, expect increasing humidity
with hot afternoons, and heat indices approaching 100F in some
areas by Friday. Additionally, with multiple disturbances
rounding the base of the upper level ridge, there will be
several periods with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Details will become clearer on how strong these thunderstorms
can get as we head into the week, but it is worth noting that
the CSU-MLP Day 6-8 outlooks show a marginal risk of severe
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A pre-frontal trough moves east of the area overnight, followed by a
cold frontal passage on Sunday. High pressure builds Sunday night.

Skies have cleared with VFR conditions prevailing into Sunday. Brief
MVFR possible late Sunday afternoon/evening with a few isolated to
scattered showers. Have not yet included shra in TAFs, but a PROB30
or TEMPO group may need to be added in subsequent TAF issuances,
especially for eastern terminals.

WSW-W weaken to mainly under 10 kt. W-NW flow increases Sunday
morning, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt late morning into the
afternoon. Winds direction will have an increasingly northerly
component towards late afternoon and into the evening, with mainly N
winds by evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Onset of gusts Sunday could be sooner than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: Mainly VFR. A period of MVFR ceilings is possible with
isolated to widely scattered showers possible eastern CT and LI in
the evening. NW-N wind gusts 20-25 kt in the evening.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers
and isolated thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 20 kt possible
Wednesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA continues on the ocean waters into the overnight, however
winds and seas will diminish. SCA may be canceled before 6 am.

Flow becomes W-NW on Sunday behind a departing cold front. Winds
and seas should both remain below SCA levels, with ocean seas
3-4 ft.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk on Sunday given little
wind component and a 4-ft 7-sec S swell.

By Monday, the rip current risk will be low with the lingering S
swell falling to 2 ft at 6s.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...Goodman/DW

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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