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887
FXUS61 KOKX 220653
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
253 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale watches have been converted to gale warnings.

Latest forecast guidance has trended back to the west with the
coastal low compared to the 12z runs yesterday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain chances continue to decrease early this morning.

2) Prolonged period of gusty NE winds starting today and
continuing through late week. Potential for high surf,
dangerous rip currents, beach erosion and some coastal
flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong high pressure system centered north of the Great Lakes
will build east across eastern Canada and the Northeast through
midweek.

As a shortwave approaches, it will try and bring some light
rain to the region, however its running into drier and cooler
air to the north. Current KOKX radar reflectivity is showing
light returns across portions of the area, however very little
rain is reaching the ground, based on current observations.
Surface observations reporting precipitation is a light rain or
drizzle out of a mid deck. Latest CAMS continue to show a drying
trend and keeping most if the precipitation passing south of
the area. The best chance of any precipitation to fall will be
across portions of NE NJ and Staten Island.

Today will be a mainly dry and cloudy day with highs in the
60s.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The 00z GFS and GFS-AI guidance has started to swing back to
the west a bit with the track of the offshore low pressure
system for the end of the week and weekend. This would be a bit
more in line with the 12z ECMWF camp.

Overall, a strong 1040 mb high across eastern Canada and broad
low pressure off the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coasts will
produce a strong pressure gradient over the local area. This in
turn will keep the area in a gusty NE flow through the end of
the week with gales across the ocean. At this time, still not
confident we will need wind headlines across land, but this may
change based on the eventual storm track.

The combination of NE winds, increasing astronomical tides
(full moon on the 26th), and building seas will at the very
least result in multiple episodes of minor to localized moderate
coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents, and some beach
flooding/erosion. The order of magnitude like everything else
will depend on the aforementioned storm track. Coastal flooding
is likely to begin with Wednesday afternoon`s cycle.

Rip currents: High risk at all local ocean beaches Tuesday.
Increasing E swells 8-10 ft at a 9 sec period, and strengthening
NE flow above 20 kt drive this risk.

The high risk very likely persists through late this week with
further building ocean swells and winds as an area of low
pressure develops and intensifies offshore. Surf heights
increase through midweek as well, potentially topping 6 ft by
Wed. Ocean seas are forecast to reach in excess of 12 ft by
Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds into the region from the north as a
weak wave of low pressure departs east.

Mainly VFR for the terminals. Low chance of SHRA late tonight
and into early Tuesday morning as a wave of low pressure passes
south, which was covered with VCSH.

NE through the TAF period. Winds speeds less than 10 kt through
around daybreak, then sustained winds increase to 10 to 15 kt with
20-25 kt 14Z or thereafter. Isolated gusts around 30 kt
possible during the afternoon.



 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected. Isolated gusts around 30 kt Tuesday
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: VFR. NE winds around G20kt.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. NE winds 25-30 kt, highest at the
coastal terminals.

Friday and Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. N-NE winds 15-20
kt with gusts 25-35 kt, highest east of NYC and along the
coast.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The area waters will be significantly impacted during the
middle and late part of the week and into the weekend as a
coastal low passes nearby or over the area waters. While there
is still some uncertainty to the exact track of this low, we are
looking at an extended period of gale force winds and seas
above 10kt.

The gale watches have been converted to gale warnings for the
ocean waters starting tonight and continuing through Thursday.
It is likely these gales will be extended into the weekend.

For the non-ocean waters, The gale watch for the eastern and
central Long Island sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the
south shore Bays have been converted to a gale warning for
Wednesday. Confidence not high enough at this time to extend the
gale into Wednesday night.

With the GFS solutions tracking a bit closer to the waters, can
not rule out the potential for some storm force winds on the
ocean waters.

Winds and seas will start to diminish late in the weekend,
however headlines will likely still be needed through Sunday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC