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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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574 FXUS61 KOKX 112353 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 753 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms with marginal severe thunderstorm possibility through early Wednesday morning. 2) More showers and thunderstorms possible mid to late week. Some strong thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into early Friday. 3) Some minor coastal flooding for some of the coastline for night time high tide cycles through Thursday night with recent new moon. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level pattern feature quasi-zonal flow with an embedded shortwave moving across. The models show differences in the position and timing of this shortwave. At the surface, a cold front moves across this evening and slowly moves farther south of the region late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Models indicate bulk shear 0-6 km AGL of near 25-35 kt along with low level CAPE of near 1000 J/kg. NAM is higher with the aforementioned parameters. The highest instability will be located to the south of the region. CAMs indicate two sets of convection that move across the region. One generates late this afternoon with the low level instability and cold frontal forcing, moving from NW to SE across mostly the western half of the region. The second one has more uncertainty and occurs late tonight. Some CAMs have a convective complex moving across the area, mainly across western sections while others having it more to the south of the region. The main threat with any severe thunderstorms will be the damaging wind gusts. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Another cold front moves near the area Thursday and could linger into Friday. A few embedded shortwaves move across, Wednesday night into early Thursday and then Thursday night towards early Friday. This will provide the forcing for the next chances of convection. The one for Thursday night into early Friday looks to be associated with stronger shortwave and more vertical forcing. Strong thunderstorms are possible with brief downbursts and small hail with sufficient shear and CAPE. Severe thunderstorms are not expected but cannot totally be ruled out with an isolated severe thunderstorm possible. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A recent new moon has allowed for astronomical tides to increase. With some onshore flow, total water levels will increase tonight through Thursday night. This will bring potential for minor coastal flooding during the evening/nighttime high tides tonight through Thursday for some portions of the coastline, mainly for the South Shore Bays of Long Island and Western Long Island Sound shorelines adjacent to Westchester NY and Fairfield CT. Model guidance still indicates a threat for more widespread minor coastal flooding during the Wednesday night high tide along the south shore of Nassau and Queens and coastal Westchester and Fairfield as astronomical tides peak. Localized minor flooding still possible for vulnerable locations along NY/NJ Harbor and tidally affected NE NJ rivers during this time as well. Minor coastal flooding thresholds are forecast to be met for some sites for tonight`s high tide, just over the minor benchmarks, which is covered by a coastal flood statement. The coastal flood statements cover the South Shore Bays of Long Island and Southern Fairfield CT as well as Southern Westchester NY shorelines for this evening. The highest total water level forecasts will be Wednesday night during the high tide, with more widespread minor coastal flood potential. The astronomical levels lower Thursday night so total water level forecasts slightly decrease compared to the previous night. Minor coastal flooding will still be possible but less above the minor benchmark and less coverage. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak cold front slowly pushes through tonight into early Wednesday morning. Primarily VFR. Thunderstorms activity has weakened, but lingering showers and isolated thunder could remain near terminals through about 02z. Have also removed SHRA mention late overnight into Wednesday morning from the TAF given current radar trends and latest guidance. Light NW/Vrb winds late this evening into the overnight, becoming W/SW Wednesday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Thunderstorms possible until about 02z. Amendments may be needed. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Thursday Afternoon: VFR most of the time, chance at sub VFR in scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily in the afternoon and evening. S- SW winds, with W / NW winds at night. Friday-Saturday: VFR. NW windS with gusts 20-25kt Friday. N to NW winds up to 10 kt Saturday. Sunday: VFR likely for much of the day. Sub VFR possible late in the day and at night in showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the waters are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds through much of the weekend as the forecast pressure gradient will not become too steep. Conditions Sunday night into Monday trend more towards SCA levels for mainly the ocean as high pressure moves offshore and low pressure approaches from the west. Some non-ocean zones will have SCA potential for wind gusts as well. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM/DW AVIATION...JT MARINE...JM/DW |
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NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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