What's Happening In Newington

961
FXUS61 KOKX 192203
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
603 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made with this forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonably warm conditions prevail through Monday.

2) Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe, capable of
producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail.

3) Quieter weather returns by late week as high pressure builds over
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A beautiful afternoon out there today with temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity is comfortable as well; dewpoints
have dropped into the 50s as northwest flow has brought in
drier air. Tonight will be pleasant as well; lows will be in the
lower to mid 60s. Tomorrow will be a near repeat of today.
Winds will be lighter, but otherwise expect a carbon copy with
plentiful sunshine and seasonable highs.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Our next chance of showers arrives Tuesday into
Tuesday night as an anomalously-strong upper level trough swings
across Ontario into Quebec. The setup for this timeframe is very
similar to Saturday, and we anticipate we`ll have a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. A
warm front will lift northward on deep S/SW flow, ushering a very
moist airmass into the Northeast. PWATs will once again surge to 2+
inches, and warm cloud depths will exceed 12 kft. So once again
expect a heavy rain threat, with rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
possible. Locally heavier downpours will be possible, which could
result in some pockets of flooding.

The severe potential is a bit more uncertain, as it will depend on
how much clearing we can see and quickly the warm front is able to
cross our region, allowing surface instability to increase. The
exact details are still hard to pin down this far out, but with MU
CAPE of up to 1500 J/kg and 0-6km shear of around 40 kt, severe
thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible,
if we can get into the warm sector. We`ll continue to monitor as
Tuesday draws closer, especially as we enter the hi-res CAM
timeframe.

The upper trough swings across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday, dragging a cold front from west to east. There`s some
differences in model solutions as to how quickly the front moves
through, with the NAM noticeably later than the GFS or ECMWF. A
slower frontal passage would keep the muggy airmass in place through
much of Wednesday, whereas the GFS brings the front through
Wednesday morning. This would result in drier airmass for Wednesday,
and potentially lessen the chance for additional showers and
thunderstorms. Have stayed close to the NBM for now given the
uncertainty, resulting in a warm, muggy day with heat index values
rising into the 90s. However, if the GFS solution holds true, it
could be much more comfortable.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Upper troughing will remain in place for late week while
surface high pressure builds eastward from the Midwest. The
result will be a couple of fair weather days to finish up the
work week. Highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the mid/upper
60s can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure settles nearby through tonight before pushing offshore
into Monday.

VFR.

Any gusts end by early this evening. The winds become light and
variable during the overnight into Monday morning with most
terminals getting down to 5 kt or less.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday afternoon - Monday night: VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms.

Thursday and Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The next chance for SCA conditions will be late Tuesday through
Wednesday. These conditions may linger on the ocean into
Thursday as elevated says may not fully subside below 5 ft until
Thursday night.


Rip Currents:

A moderate rip current risk continues through this evening. The
rip current risk is low on Monday with a light S-SE flow
developing in the afternoon and 2-3 ft seas at 6-7s. A return to
a moderate risk for all beaches on Tuesday, with south winds
15-20kts, and building southerly swell and surf, especially across
eastern beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MH
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DBR