NewingtonWeather.COM

923
FXUS61 KOKX 311343
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
943 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost-Freeze conditions possible outside of NYC/NJ metro
tonight into tomorrow morning. Otherwise, dry and increasingly
mild conditions for early to mid next week.

2) The next chance of a wetting rain - late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The driest stretch of the year so far persists for the next
several days in response to confluent NW upper flow this
weekend, giving way to east coast upper ridging thru midweek. At
the surface, modified Canadian high pressure builds overhead
through this weekend, and then gradually offshore through
midweek.

Sunny, dry and seasonably chilly airmass for this weekend.
Today will be slightly cooler than Sunday. Highs will generally
be in the mid 50s to near 60 today and in the upper 50s to lower
60s on Sunday.

Widespread frost conditions possible, scattered freeze
conditions possible, across eastern LI, southern CT and southern
Westchester county tonight into early tomorrow morning under
good radiational cooling conditions. The one caveat will be the
northeastward progression of a cirrus deck associated with
shearing central US shortwave, and to a lesser extent upper jet
streak aloft and a weak northern stream shortwave moving through
northern New England. Although frost-freeze conditions are
expected across areas to the north of this, the frost-freeze
program has already ended for these interior areas. The frost-
freeze program will end for Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Southern
Westchester, Coastal Connecticut, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex,
Eastern Union the morning of Sunday November 1. So, a frost
advisory could be issued for these areas tonight should the
forecast hold. However, given the uncertainty with regards to
cloud cover timing, have opted to hold off on issuing a frost
advisory, at this time.

Gradually moderating conditions for early next week as heights
rise aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return SW
flow. High temps incrementally rising through the 60s each day,
with overnight lows rising from in the 30s and 40s Sunday
morning to 40s and 50s by Wednesday morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
General NWP/AI model agreement in NW PAC troughing slowly
moving southeastward across the CONUS through the early-mid next
week, approaching the middle eastern US late week. Considerable
spread on the particulars of the trough as it moves towards the
east coast late week (whether it remains influenced by the
northern stream and approaches as a closed low towards the
NE/Mid Atlantic US East coast or detaches from northern stream
and drifts across the SE US). At least a low potential for a
frontal system or low pressure system to affect the area late in
the week with a wetting rainfall, but inherently low
predictability on details this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the period.

VFR. NNW winds around 10 kt this morning, backing to the NW/WNW
this afternoon, them becoming more northerly tonight at less
than 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind shift to the NW/WNW this afternoon may vary by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Sunday through Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are on all waters through Thursday as high
pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR/NV
AVIATION...DBR/DW
MARINE...BR/NV