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089
FXUS61 KOKX 261140
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Despite a dry cold frontal passage tonight, high pressure is
expected to dominate the area through the week and possibly into
the weekend.

2) Localized minor coastal flooding is possible across southern
Nassau and southern Fairfield counties during the morning high
tides Tuesday and Wednesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An anomalously strong upper ridge will translate east into
Monday. At the same time, a strong upper low tracking across
central and eastern Canada will suppress the upper ridge to the
north of our area. Upper ridging will then reestablish itself
over the eastern portion of the country, with the region lying
between the ridge to the south and mainly zonal flow to our
north. Other than a dry cold front passage tonight, strong high
pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the week.

Patchy frost is possible this morning in primarily outlying
areas that were able to radiationally cool. Temperatures this
morning remain highly dependent on the wind speed with any wind
allowing temperatures to remain in the 40s and 50s and areas
that are able to become calm, dropping as low as the low 30s.
Frost is expected to be isolated enough to not warrant issuing
any advisories.

Slightly warmer temperatures are anticipated today with highs
reaching the upper 60s for most spots and around 70 in the NYC
metro and NE NJ. Milder conditions tonight will trend slightly
below normal for Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s to around
60 degrees, courtesy of some cold air advection behind a cold
frontal passage. A light N-NW flow may continue Tuesday night,
so temperatures may only fall into the upper 30s for areas where
the growing season has not ended on Long Island and coastal CT.
Frost could be a concern if winds end up going calm allowing
temperatures to fall lower. A gradual warming trend is then
forecast through the rest of the week with highs Thursday and
especially Friday above normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Some of the warmer spots on Friday could reach the mid to upper
70s in NE NJ.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Localized minor coastal flooding is possible for southern
Nassau and souther Fairfield county during the morning high
tides on Tuesday and Wednesday. Despite high pressure over the
area during this timeframe, astronomically high tides (King
Tide) will mean localized minor coastal flooding for these
locations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control through the TAF period. A cold
front moves through dry tonight.

Light SW to variable winds tonight. West winds develop after
12Z Monday, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Winds
shift to the NW Monday night with the passage of a dry cold
front.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the week
with high pressure in control and a relatively weak pressure
gradient.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MW