NewingtonWeather.COM

953
FXUS61 KOKX 051716
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
116 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for Aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry conditions prevail this week ahead with the
coolest temperatures tonight through Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front moves across later today without any measurable
rainfall expected. A few CAMs show some reflectivity traversing
parts of the area mainly across the northern half of the
forecast region. With the ambient dry low levels, the raindrops
will likely evaporate before reaching the ground. So, kept a dry
forecast. High pressure will build in thereafter for tonight into
the middle of the week. A much cooler airmass will settle into
the region tonight through Tuesday night before the airmass
moderates Wednesday.

Coolest stretch of temperatures forecast for tonight through
Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday stay mainly in the lower 60s with
some mid 60s within NE NJ and NYC Metro. The pressure gradient
will keep a gusty NW flow in place today through tonight with a
decrease in this pressure gradient Tuesday, allowing for less
wind gusts on Tuesday as a result. Boundary layer will be too
breezy for any frost tonight and temperatures are not expected
to be as low as a result of these relatively higher winds.

There is potential for frost especially Tuesday night as high
pressure center gets closer to the area with weakening winds.
Lows Tuesday night forecast to range from low to mid 30s for
rural and interior sections to near 50 within NYC Metro. Frost
forecast coverage is described as patchy to areas.

Temperatures then rebound back to near normal values mid to
late week as high pressure moves offshore and a frontal system
moves through. This system shows a warm front moving through on
Wednesday and an associated cold front moving through on
Thursday.

High pressure returns to the area after this system thereafter
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front moves offshore this afternoon. High pres builds in
from the W thru Tue.

VFR thru the TAF period.

NW winds around 310 true thru tngt. Gusts thru about 00-04Z,
then ocnl gusts possible overnight. Gusts to around 20kt aft
12-14Z Tue with direction remaining NW.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds could be either side of 310 true thru 00Z.

Ocnl gusts possible overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Rest of Tuesday: VFR. NW winds diminishing late.

Wednesday: VFR with SW flow.

Thursday: VFR with W flow becoming NW.

Friday: VFR with NW flow.

Saturday: VFR light NW/VRB winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The ocean out 20 nm SCA remains through early today for
lingering seas near 5 ft. By late morning, NW winds will start
gusting more frequently to near 25 kt. The ocean out 20 nm SCA
continues late this morning through early Tuesday, extending
later into Tuesday for more eastern waters.

Most of the non-ocean nearshore zones have their SCA remaining
in effect from 11AM this morning through early Tuesday, again
extending later into Tuesday for more eastern waters. NY Harbor
has their SCA from 11AM and now extended until midnight
tonight, after which most of the higher gusts will be across
waters surrounding Nassau and Suffolk Counties in NY.

The last of the current SCAs will be ending 11AM Tuesday. After
that, mainly sub-SCA conditions are forecast for all waters
through the work week. The only SCA potential is for some ocean
SCA conditions late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-335-340-
     345-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ332-350.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ338.

&&

$$