What's Happening In Newington

572
FXUS61 KOKX 010535
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
135 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added key message for minor coastal flood potential from
Thursday morning into Friday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A thunderstorm possible through Wednesday as a stationary
front to the north tonight moves south into the area daytime
Wednesday. Impacts should be limited.

2. Somewhat unsettled weather pattern follows for Wednesday
night into early next week, but not anticipating any potential
significant impacts. Dry weather returns for Monday and Tuesday.

3. Some minor coastal flooding is possible with the high tides
from Thursday morning into Friday morning, especially with the
Thursday night high tide cycle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A frontal boundary will remain well north into this evening,
then start to sag south late tonight as a wave of low pressure
ripples along it. The front should then move into the area
daytime Wed, passing S of Long Island and NYC either late Wed
afternoon or early Wed evening.

Showers are confined to Orange County attm. More showers
expected tonight NW of NYC with the approach of a mid level
shortwave trough. Instability remains modest and fcst soundings
also show a capping H8 inversion, so any tstms that do make it
into the area this evening will be approaching from the NW and
may still have potential for some gusty winds. Marginal svr risk
continues for Orange, Putnam, W Passaic, Rockland, and
NW Westchester.

Another chance of thunderstorms arrives with the frontal
passage on Wednesday. CAPE and lapse rates will likely be lower
than those of today, so just some isolated rumbles possible and
likely no strong wind gusts.

Rainfall from late tonight into Wed night will be less than 1/2
inch so unlikely to lead to any hydrologic issues.

Combo of NBM 90th percentile, HRRR, and GFS LAMP guidance did
fairly well capturing the warmth of yesterday and today.
With more cloud cover and greater chances of rainfall on Wed
did not stray far from a blend of 12Z HRRR and NBM guidance for
highs, which should be in the 70s across most of the area except
along most south facing shorelines as well as the forks of Long
Island. Temps at BDR and ISP may be close to record highs for
the date.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The cold front should drop through the area Wed afternoon into
early Wed evening and then stall off the NJ coast, with a
cooler maritime flow developing. Temps Wed night into Thu will
be noticeably cooler, with lows from the upper 30s east to mid
40s west, and high temps only 45-50. Some light rain or drizzle
may be possible, also fog especially late Thu night into Fri
morning as the front begins to return north. Temps daytime Fri
are uncertain and will depend on how quickly the front lifts
through; with a quicker warm fropa and enough afternoon
sunshine temps could be a few degrees warmer than the current
fcst of 50s/60s for Long Island/S CT and 70-75 west of the
Hudson.

There is also some uncertainty as to how far south a back door
cold front will move through Friday night into Saturday before
becoming nearly stationary. With a rather strong high to the
north, (1033 to 1039 mb), the front may be pushed farther to the
south than currently forecast. If the back door cold front is
farther south, temperatures will end up being significantly
lower, up to around 10 degrees, especially across the northern
tier. And if the front is farther south, lower temperatures are
possible across the southern tier, with highs closer to the NBM
10th percentile. Showers will be possible along the front later
Saturday into Saturday night, with the front moving slowly
northward as a warm front Saturday night.

The best chance of showers and potentially thunderstorms will be
during Sunday as the area will be warm sectored with the
approach of a cold associated with deepening low pressure
tracking to the west and north. Surface and elevated CAPE will
be low with weak instability, however, a strong low level jet of
50-60 kt is forecast to move through during Sunday providing
lift. For now have followed WPC guidance and left out the
mention of thunderstorms with the cold front Sunday.

There may be a few showers Sunday night into early Monday post
cold front, and ahead of a secondary cold front. Drier and
more seasonal weather returns later Monday into Tuesday as
surface high pressure builds toward the east coast.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Bias-corrected blend of ETSS, STOFS, and NYHOPS 50th percentile
indicates departures of 1 to 1.5 ft generated by E flow Thu into
Fri morning. This will combine with higher astronomical tides
associated with Wednesday`s full moon to lead to some minor
coastal flooding with the high tide cycles from Thu AM into Fri
AM. The bigger impacts should occur with the Thu night high tide
cycle along the south shore bays of Nassau, along the tidal
waters of NE NJ, and along the SW CT coastline.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front north of the region will slowly drop through the
area today and linger over or just south of the area on Thursday.

Mainly VFR until around the time of the cold frontal passage
this afternoon. Brief MVFR in scattered showers possible before
that, with the next chance near daybreak. Plan to maintain VCSH
late morning into the afternoon. Widespread MVFR conditions
develop with showers along and behind the cold front this
afternoon/evening. Chance of IFR tonight, but confidence is too
low at this time to put in TAF for 30h sites. An isolated
thunderstorm is also possible ahead of the cold front.

Winds will gradually diminish to around 10 kt at the coastal
terminals and less than 10 kt at the inland terminals early this
AM. SW LLWS likely early this AM through about 12Z. SW winds
around 10 kt with G15-18kt ahead of the cold front, then veering
to the N/NE around 10 kt behind the cold front.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance for MVFR in morning in showers.

Isolated thunderstorm possible in the afternoon along and ahead
of the cold front.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Night-Thursday: MVFR or lower Wednesday night and then
IFR likely on Thursday. E/NE G15-20kt at the coast.

Friday: Becoming VFR. SW G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance for MVFR or lower Sat night.
Chance of showers.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA`s remains in effect for the Long Island south shore bays
into much of tonight, where gusts to around 25 kt expected. SCA
also remains in effect for all ocean waters through daytime Wed
as SW flow 20-25 kt gusting up to 30 kt pushes seas up to 6-10
ft, highest late tonight into Wed morning.

Hazardous ocean seas should come down for a time Wed night W of
Moriches Inlet. Then SCA cond likely to return to all ocean
waters from daytime into early evening Thu in E flow after a
back door cold frontal passage, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas
5-6 ft.

SCA conditions develop on the ocean waters Fri night, and linger
into early Sat morning, with a strong S-SW flow. Conditions
briefly fall below advisory levels later Sat as winds and gusts
diminish. Then with the approach of a strong cold front, and
deepening low pressure to the west, S winds increase once again
Saturday night, with winds and seas reaching SCA levels, with
25 kt gusts also possible on the southern Long Island bays, and
possibly into New York Harbor, the eastern Long Island bays, and
far eastern Long Island Sound. Gusts on the ocean waters may be
near gale force at times early Sunday as the cold front nears
the forecast waters. Small craft condition likely continue into
Sunday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 31:
KEWR: 85/1998
KBDR: 74/1998
KNYC: 86/1998
KLGA: 82/1998
KJFK: 74/1986
KISP: 73/1999

April 1:
KEWR: 82/1978
KBDR: 71/1955
KNYC: 83/1917
KLGA: 80/1978
KJFK: 75/1978
KISP: 67/1999

April 4:
KEWR: 82/1950
KBDR: 71/2025
KNYC: 80/1892
KLGA: 76/2010
KJFK: 73/2010
KISP: 75/2010

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 31:
KEWR: 63/1998
KBDR: 50/1998
KNYC: 66/1998
KLGA: 59/1998
KJFK: 51/1981
KISP: 52/1998

April 1:
KEWR: 62/2016
KBDR: 53/2016
KNYC: 61/2016
KLGA: 56/2016
KJFK: 52/2016
KISP: 54/2016

April 4:
KEWR: 61/1981
KBDR: 53/2025
KNYC: 62/1892
KLGA: 57/2025
KJFK: 57/2025
KISP: 54/2025

April 5:
KEWR: 55/1981
KBDR: 49/1974
KNYC: 60/1892
KLGA: 53/2010
KJFK: 52/2010
KISP: 50/1981

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/MET
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...Goodman/MET