What's Happening In Newington

354
FXUS61 KOKX 061433
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine dense fog advisory for ocean waters south of Long Island
through early this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Very warm and very humid through Saturday, possibly
lingering into the start of next week.

2. Potential for mainly afternoon/evening heavy downpours
through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An anomalously strong subtrop ridge will be in control of the
weather through Friday before breaking down late Friday into
the weekend as the westerlies once again drop back into the
area. Before then though, a deep-layered S-SW flow will maintain
very humid air along with temperatures several degrees above
normal. While daytime highs will fall well below records, the
high humidity will make it feel quite uncomfortable. Heat index
values today and Friday should get solidly into heat advisory
criteria with max heat index values 100-104 across the NYC
metro area, along much of the coast except the south shore of
Long Island, and in/near the CT River valley, and 95-99 most
elsewhere.

High temps today and Friday will be mostly in the upper
80s/lower 90s, with low temps in the 70s. Some lows will get to
within a couple degrees of daily high mins.

As we get into the weekend and early next week, temperatures
are forecast to be similar, but with gradually lowering
humidity. Heat advisories will likely need to be extended into
Sat for most of the region, and in the NYC metro area and along
the coast from Sunday through Tuesday, where lower 90s daytime
heat and relatively high humidity could persist until then.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Along with the very warm and humid airmass will come the chance
of showers and thunderstorms. The air mass will gradually
destabilize over the next couple of days with disturbances in
the SW flow aloft. The best chance will be during the afternoon
and evening hours, mainly for NYC and points north and west.
Friday has the potential to be a more widespread event. Heavy
downpours are likely with any showers and thunderstorms with
high PW values around 2 inches. Isolated pulse severe storms
can`t be ruled out, but wind shear and mid-level lapse rates are
weak. WPC has areas from NYC north/west in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall (isolated instances of flash flooding) today
and Sat, with a more widespread marginal risk on Fri. SPC
marginal svr risk (isolated risk of damaging winds) will be
well inland across Putnam/Orange/W Passaic today, and across
most areas west of the Hudson on Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the western Atlantic through
the taf period with a frontal boundary lingering to the west.

Conditions will continue to improve to VFR through 16z. VFR will
then prevail into this evening. MVFR or lower conditions are
again possible for Long Island, southeast CT terminals, and
potentially Lower Hudson Valley Terminals tonight into early
Friday.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, mainly west of the Hudson River. Have continued with a
PROB30 for TSRA for KEWR, KTEB, and KSWF, and have added a VCSH
for KHPN.

SSW-SW winds increase this morning, becoming S-SSW into the
afternoon. Speeds will be mainly around 10 kt, but a few coastal
terminals may end up a few kt stronger at times this afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
PROB30 for TSRA at EWR and TEB may be off by a few hours.

A shower possible for JFK and LGA this afternoon/early evening,
but the latest thinking is for any TSRA to remain west of these
terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and
evening, especially in the vicinity of NYC metros and N and W.

Saturday-Monday: Mainly VFR. Low probability for showers/
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marine dense fog advisory for ocean waters south of Long Island
through early this afternoon. Conditions should gradually
improve through early afternoon with daytime heating.

Otherwise a prolonged period of SW flow will feature gusts to
around 20 kt on the ocean waters each late afternoon and evening
through Sat. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible near entrance to
NY Harbor with coastal jet formation each late
afternoon/evening, which could have ocean seas building to 3-5
ft during these times.

Rip Currents: Persistent SW flow and associated wind waves will
lead to a moderate to borderline high rip current risk today
and Fri. Potential for rip current risk to increase to high late
afternoon and evening today and Friday with coastal jet
development and increase in breaking waves to 3 to 4 ft,
particularly for NYC and western LI beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ005>012.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/NV
AVIATION...MW/DS
MARINE...Goodman/NV