What's Happening In Newington

829
FXUS61 KOKX 211417
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1017 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures were increased for coastal locations for the high
temperature forecast today. Otherwise, no other significant
changes made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry day today with mild temperatures.

2) A frontal system impacts the region Sunday afternoon into
Monday morning.

3) Another frontal system impacts the region Thursday through
Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Weak high pressure moves in behind the cold front today with dry
conditions expected. The pressure gradient between the
departing wave of low pressure attached to the cold front and
this incoming high pressure will make for some gusty winds. The
northwest flow will gust near 20 to 25 mph at most with the
pressure gradient not being too steep.

With the NW flow, there will be downslope component and with
less maritime influence, high temperatures get more into the mid
to upper 50s range along the coast. The coastal locations get
relatively warmer than locations farther inland. Temperatures
were increased compared to previous forecast for the max
temperatures today.

More sun is expected today which will help temperatures rise
more compared to the previous day across the coastal locations.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
For Sunday, the next rain event begins as a wave of low
pressure approaches from the north with an associated cold
front. Before the rain moves in though, warm air advection on a
SSW flow will make for warmer temperature despite the abundance
of clouds. Western areas across NYC, NE NJ, and the Lower Hudson
Valley will see highs in the middle to upper 60s for high
temperatures, while locations farther east will only see upper
40s to middle 50s thanks to flow off the cooler waters. Would
not be surprised if there was an isolated 70 degree reading
across NE NJ.

Rain moves in from the north later in the day Sunday. Chances
for rain increase during the day and rain becomes likely Sunday
night. Elevated instability noted in forecast soundings of
400-500 J/kg across portions of NE NJ, NYC, and Long Island, so
scattered thunderstorms are possible, but only for a short
window, from 5 to 8 pm as of now.

Cold front moves across Sunday night with northerly flow
developing behind it. This continues into Monday with an upper
level trough lingering in the area. Expect cooler temperatures
Monday compared to the previous day. For some interior areas,
there is a chance of a rain/snow mix heading into Monday. No
accumulation is expected with surface temperatures above
freezing. Otherwise, rain continues into Monday with decreasing
chances Monday morning into Monday afternoon.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Another frontal system impacts the region possibly as early as
Thursday afternoon, but best chances are for Thursday night into
Friday morning. However, there is still pretty good spread in
solutions among the deterministic models to key in on exact
timing. Stuck close to the NBM with large uncertainty in the
models. If the ECMWF pans out, with low pressure developing off
the New England coast, enough cold air could filter in behind
the cold front for rain to change to a mix of rain and snow
across the higher terrain well inland.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move across the terminals this morning,
followed by high pressure.

Precipitation has moved east and we are just left with some low
stratus/fog until the front moves across the region. Flight
categories are generally MVFR or IFR, with some isolated lower
conditions. Flight categories are expected to improve between
12-14z. VFR conditions are then expected for much of the TAF
period. Cigs will lower late in the TAF period, with MVFR cigs
returning closer to 12z Sunday.

Winds start off light and variable but will become more
Northwesterly around 10 kt and begin to gust to around 20 kt
around 14z. Gusts are expected to fall off in the afternoon.
Winds will become light and variable in the evening as high
pressure builds overhead.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of flight categories changes may be off by an hour or two
during the overnight.

Gusts may be occasional this morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower with rain in the late
afternoon/evening, possibly mixing with snow at night for the
Lower Hudson Valley and CT. SW winds 10 kt or less.

Monday: chance of MVFR or lower becoming VFR. N winds G20 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. N winds 10 kt or less.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower with rain. Some mixing possible
in the interior. W winds 10-15 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Ocean seas of 5 to 8 ft this morning slowly diminish from west
to east. West of Fire Island Inlet, SCA goes until 2PM Saturday
and east of Fire Island Inlet, SCA goes until 6PM Saturday.

Otherwise, wind gusts are below SCA thresholds for Saturday
through Saturday night. All waters are below SCA criteria for
Saturday night. Waves on the ocean waters build to around 5 ft
Sunday afternoon on a SSW flow, and SCA may be needed from Fire
Island inlet and points east, but this seems marginal right now.
However, waves build somewhat Sunday night and remain elevated
through much of Monday night.

High pressure then briefly follows on Tuesday before another
frontal system brings the chance for SCA conditions in a SW flow
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This also seems marginal as of
now.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM/JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP