What's Happening In Newington

055
FXUS61 KOKX 272004
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
404 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to widely scattered showers or thunderstorms still
possible late today into early this evening.

2) Cooler for the end of the week with multiple disturbances
dropping south across the Northeast.

3) There will be chances for showers during the first half of
next week.

4) A moderate rip current risk continues for today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
CAM`s that do produce showers/tstms with an approaching weak
cold front initiate convection along a pre-frontal trough near
the edge of the dense high cloud shield covering our area,
from the Berkshires to the Poconos after 19Z-20Z, and vis
satellite does show Cu starting to develop in that general area
especially E of the Mid Hudson Valley. SPC mesoanalysis shows
SBCAPE increasing from 500 J/kg to 1000-1500 J/kg inland late
today, and a corresponding MLCAPE increase to 500 J/kg, with the
highest values across southern CT. So highest PoP of 30-40% for
showers or tstms lies across most of southern CT for late
today, with a lower 20-30% PoP elsewhere. HREF shows a 30%
probability of the heaviest showers/storms producing up to a
half inch of rain, so this continues to be our reasonable worst
case for rainfall, though coverage will be sparse as there will
be mid level dry air and a cap between that and a well-mixed
blyr to be overcome, and exact location is uncertain.
Convective activity should wind down after sunset, with dry
conditions overnight as a weak cold front moves through.

High temps today from the 70s near the coast to 80-85 inland
will cool off tonight to the lower 60s in the NYC metro area
and across Long Island, and to 55-60 inland.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A series of upper level disturbances dropping SE across ern
Canada will carve out an upper trough across the Northeast into
the Canadian Maritimes. The strongest of these will move across
New England and drive a stronger cold front through Fri night.
So after a warmer Thu/Fri with temps running a few degrees
above normal, Sat will be noticeably cooler and almost brisk,
with a NW wind gusting to 25-30 mph. Temps daytime Sat per MOS
may not make it out of the 60s, blending that with warmer NBM
yields temps at least reaching the lower 70s across the NYC
metro area and Long Island. Temps should recover somewhat on
Sunday with highs 70-75 which is actually close to normal.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
An upr lvl low may stall over the Northeast and produce chances
for shwrs and isold tstms Mon-Wed. Some of the modeling
however suggests a more transitory pattern, producing lesser
chances duration-wise. The blended approach was followed to
account for the uncertainty this far out.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
A moderate rip current risk continues today with residual 2-ft
SE swell and 2-ft S wind waves.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will pass through the area this evening, followed
by high pressure building in from the northwest. A weak surface
trough will then move across the area Thursday.

This will mainly be a VFR forecast outside of a brief shower or
thunderstorm late this afternoon into this evening along and
ahead of the cold front.

SW-W winds around 10kt will gradually veer around to the WNW-NW
into this evening. A few gusts 15 to 20 kt are possible early.
NW winds behind the cold front tonight will be around 10 kt,
increasing to 10-15kt with G20-25 kt on Thursday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of a thunderstorm late this afternoon/early this
evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Afternoon/Night: Chance of an afternoon shower at
KGON, otherwise VFR. NW wind G20-25kt, diminishing in the
evening.

Friday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Friday Night-Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers at night
into early Saturday morning, mainly at KGON/KISP/KBDR. NW-N
winds G20-25kt Saturday.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: Chance of MVFR in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Vsby at Buoy 44065 improved this afternoon, while webcams to the
east showed fog close to shore. Issued a dense fog advy for all
the ocean waters except Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet out 20
nm. The fog should dissipate in most places by late evening as a
cold front starts to move through.

There is a chance for marginal SCA conditions on the ocean from
late Fri night into early Sat afternoon, with seas up to 5 ft
and wind gusts close to 25 kt in a W flow becoming NW. Best
chance looks to be E of Fire Island Inlet.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353-
     380-383-385.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/Goodman
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/Goodman