What's Happening In Newington

541
FXUS61 KOKX 241127
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
727 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory on the ocean will now expire at Noon
(16Z) today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will largely be control through Thursday along
with gradually warming temperatures.

2) Rain is likely Thursday night followed by cold and dry
conditions for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A fast, nearly zonal flow will feature broadscale ridging across
the western half of the country, and weak troughing across the
east. Surface high pressure will largely be in control during
this time with a series of weak disturbances passing to the
north. There is a low chance of some warm advection showers
Thursday afternoon as high pressure moves offshore. In addition,
there is abundant mid and high level moisture riding overtop
the western ridge, which is expected to spill into the area
tonight into Wednesday. Expect mostly cloud conditions during
this time.

Temperatures look to be a few degrees below normal today, but
then warm into Thursday. Highs by Thursday are forecast to be in
the 50s for much of the CT coast and eastern LI, but as you work
to the NW and away from marine influence, expect highs in the
60s to possibly 70. The latter of which will likely be dependent
on the extent of the cloud cover.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front is progged to move across the region Thursday night
into early Friday. The best chance for rain at this time looks
to be after midnight. This is when the modeling is coming into
agreement with the most organized lift/convergence coinciding
with moisture. The atmosphere quickly dries out Friday morning
behind the cold front. Temperatures should be able to rise well
into the 50s across the area as dew points drop throughout the
day. Dry conditions will continue into next Monday with high
pressure in control. Daytime temperatures will likely end up
well below normal on Saturday in the low to mid 40s, before
slowly trending milder Sunday into next Monday. High
temperatures by next Monday should be in the 50s. The coldest
nights appear to be Friday and Saturday night with temperatures
in the 20s and lower 30s, coldest inland.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure over the terminals today.

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

NW winds 8-12kt become light and variable for a few hours this
afternoon as a weak surface trough develops. Winds then become
light S/SW late in the afternoon and will continue into the
overnight.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds are expected to become southerly around 10-12kt at 20z at
JFK and 21z at LGA. Modate to high confidence on timing. Moderate
to high confidence wind speeds remain below 15kt at JFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday and night: VFR. S to SW winds around 10kt or less.

Thursday: VFR with a slight chance of rain in the evening, MVFR or
lower late at night with rain likely. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Friday: Chance of rain early with MVFR or lower possible. NW wind
gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions on the ocean ware expect to come to an end by
noon (16Z) as winds and seas fall off as high pressure works in
from the west. SCA conditions are likely on the ocean Thursday
in a southerly flow and could potentially expand to the non-
ocean waters due to a cold front passage on Friday. SCA
conditions may then linger into Friday on the ocean. Winds and
seas subside Friday night into Saturday as high pressure builds
towards the waters.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS/DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/DW