What's Happening In Newington

639
FXUS61 KOKX 121722
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
122 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast at this time. Updated for
aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible once
again late this afternoon and evening.

2) Hot and humid conditions continue through this evening with
a Heat Advisory remaining in effect for much of the region.

3) Potential for more strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday late
afternoon and evening.

4) Minor coastal flooding possible this weekend into early next
week during evening high tides.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today`s potential for strong to severe thunderstorms may
largely be a repeat of yesterday`s storms as the atmosphere is
expected to become unstable into the afternoon and evening given
strong surface heating. The main difference will be a more
potent upper level disturbance and a surface cold front
approaching from the west that will provide a more consolidated
forcing mechanism for storm development. However, the front
looks to move into the area later than normal, generally in the
evening and overnight hours. This may mean that storms may be
fairly isolated in nature into the afternoon and may not be
more scattered or widespread until evening. That being said, any
strong to severe thunderstorms that do develop will have the
primary threat of bringing damaging wind gusts.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An upper ridge will return today and allow for similar
temperatures as yesterday. 850 mb temperatures will surge
toward the 20 C mark, translating to surface temperatures in the
upper 80s to middle 90s. Moisture across the region will remain
elevated with surface dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Together, this will allow for Heat Index Values to be in the
mid 90s to lower 100s. The Heat Advisory remains valid for much
of the area through 8 PM today.

Temperatures and heat index values will remain muted in the
lower to mid 80s for coastal SE CT and Eastern Long Island, and
these areas will stay out of the Heat Advisory.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
An upper level shortwave trough approaches on Sunday along with an
associated cold front at the surface. Most of the day will be sunny
and hot with an increasing southerly flow. At this time, afternoon
temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s
do not raise a concern for heat hazards.

While it is too far out for specific details, there is at least
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms during the late
afternoon and evening on Sunday. There is decent agreement among the
global models with QPF output along the approaching cold front,
along with a tongue of instability stretching into northeast NJ. The
SPC has outlined NYC and north and west in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms.


.KEY MESSAGE 4...
With a new moon phase coming up this weekend, astronomical
tide levels will be higher. With increasing onshore flow this
weekend, the forecast surge is expected to increase and total water
levels could reach just beyond minor coastal flood benchmarks during
times of high tide.

The evening high tide cycle looks to be the higher of the total
water level forecasts according to some surge forecast models. This
minor coastal flooding could linger into early next week
as well for those evening high tides.

With both Long Island Sound and South Shore Bay locations as well
as Montauk showing possible minor coastal flooding, coastal flood
advisories could very well be needed in subsequent forecast
updates for this weekend. For now, with potential for isolated
minor coastal flooding during high tide tonight, issued coastal
flood statements for Southern Nassau South Shore Bays as well as
Southern Fairfield CT shoreline.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the west this afternoon, eventually
crossing through most terminals this evening. High pressure builds
in from the west late tonight into Saturday.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The
exception will be showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into
this evening. A brief reduction in visibility to MVFR or IFR will be
possible along with the potential for brief strong wind gusts with
any stronger to severe thunderstorms.

The winds begin more W this afternoon, with SW winds for coastal
terminals, especially eastern coastal terminals. Wind speeds will be
near 10-13 kt this afternoon with some gusts near 20 kt. Winds shift
to NW this evening behind the cold front. Wind speeds again will be
near 10 kts. NW flow remains around 10 kt through much of the day
Saturday.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible to refine timing of showers and thunderstorms,
which could be 1 to 2 hours off from TAF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: VFR. Winds mainly NW to W.

Sunday: Mainly VFR initially. Then, showers becoming more probable
afternoon into night with MVFR or lower possible at times.
Thunderstorms are possible as well. S-SW wind gusts near 20-25 kt
afternoon into evening. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible.

Monday: VFR. Possible W-SW wind gusts up to 20 kt afternoon into
early evening.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mostly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions later in
the day and towards evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Light flow of 5 to 15 kts is expected through Saturday and Small
Craft Advisory headlines are not expected at this time. Winds
will be southwesterly through this evening before shifting to
the northwest behind a cold front.

There is potential for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday
into Sunday night with an increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold
front. This will likely be real marginal and mainly for the ocean
waters, with 25 kt gusts and 4-5 ft seas.

Rip Currents...

For this afternoon, a SW flow around 10kt and a 3ft 6s swell
from the south will combine to bring a moderate risk of rip
currents for southern Nassau and southern Suffolk. The risk for
NYC beaches is low, with a bit of a weaker swell. It is marginal
overall for all beaches, but RCMOS helped lean towards
increasing the risk.

The risk lowers to low on Saturday with a west wind under 10 kt and
a lingering 2 ft southerly swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 12:
KEWR: 97/2017
KBDR: 93/2017
KNYC: 93/2017
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 91/2017


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 12:
KEWR: 74/1973
KBDR: 69/1973
KNYC: 76/2017
KLGA: 76/2017
KJFK: 73/1970
KISP: 70/1973

June 13:
KEWR: 74/2005
KBDR: 71/2017
KNYC: 77/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 72/2017
KISP: 70/1969

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>010.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-078-
     080-176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ZPS
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...ZPS