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640
FXUS61 KOKX 131738
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1238 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for Aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of light to moderate rain persist through this
afternoon. No significant impacts expected.

2) Minor coastal flooding is possible in vulnerable locations
along the Long Island south shore during today`s daytime high
tide cycle.

3) An extended stretch of dry weather looks to return this
weekend and continue through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure just southeast of Long Island slowly pulls east
and further offshore into tonight as the parent upper low trails
behind it.

Periods of light to moderate rain will continue to fall through
the afternoon, before tapering everywhere by the evening. The
risk for heavier downpours that could lead to any additional
flood threat has ended. Additional QPF will be light, generally
between a quarter and half inch. The rain may mix with or
transition to wet snow across the hills well north and west of
NYC. A light coating on colder surfaces is possible in these
areas.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of a recent new moon (Nov. 9) and an area of
low pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic coast should cause
another round of minor coastal flooding along the Long Island
south shore during today`s daytime high tide cycle. Isolated
moderate coastal flooding is possible as well. Coastal flood
advisories are in effect for the south shore of Nassau and
Suffolk. N flow should prevent water levels from reaching
threshold elsewhere.

Additionally, issued coastal flood statements for the NYC and NJ
metro areas as well as southern Fairfield where new guidance
was indicating isolated minor coastal flooding possible with up
to a half foot of inundation.

Blend of bias corrected NYHOPS and P-ETSS 50th percentiles used
for surge.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
An extended stretch of dry weather develops this weekend as a
sprawling area of high pressure gradually builds to the west
into early next week, then settles over the area mid to late
next week.

Dry conditions persist through much of the week and below normal
temps this weekend should moderate to near normal early next
week, then to a few degrees above normal Wed-Thu as heights also
rise aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pres S of Long Island slowly tracks ewd and out to sea thru
Sat.

Mainly MVFR today, with improvement to VFR aft 00Z. Highest
confidence in transition to VFR is 4-7Z. VFR on Sat with SCT-
BKN040.

N winds back to the NNW tngt and to the NW on Sat. Gusts today
around 20kt, then winds diminish aft 23Z thru Sat mrng. Winds
increase to 15-25kt aft 14Z Sat with peak gusts around 30kt
possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely thru this eve due to uncertainty in flight
categories.

Peak gusts on Sat around 30kt possible.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...

Rest of Saturday: VFR. NW winds 15-25kt.

Sunday: VFR with NW flow to 20kt.

Monday: VFR with decreasing NW flow.

Tuesday: VFR with LV winds becoming NW and increasing late.

Wednesday: VFR with W winds 10-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warning remains in effect for all ocean waters through 6
pm this evening. Gusts 35 to 40 kt, with seas 5 to 8 ft can be
expected. Small Craft Advisory is now effect for all non ocean
waters, with gusts 25 to 30 kt expected.

Winds back to the N-NE today as low pressure over the waters
just south of Long Island slowly pulls east and away from the
area. Speeds gradually lower through late day, and speeds/gusts
should be under SCA criteria into tonight.

Another round of advisory conditions is possible later Saturday
into Sunday on the near shore ocean waters. Otherwise, winds
and seas look to remain below SCA criteria through at least
early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ080-081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355-
     380-383-385.

&&

$$