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480
FXUS61 KOKX 300910
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
510 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Turning unsettled this afternoon through Thursday of next
week. There is the potential for impacts, but confidence of
impacts remains low this far out in time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A mid and upper level ridge sets up to the west-southwest late
Sunday and into Monday. A cold front approaches from the Upper
Midwest and the Great Lakes along the northern periphery of the
ridge tonight. Additionally, a surface trough sets up over the
coastal areas of the Northeast today ahead of the cold front.
As the ridge works east Sunday night through Wednesday of next
week, there remains good agreement with the mid level mass
fields. Our area will remain on the northern periphery of upper
level ridging. Our position on the edge of this ridge will put
the area in a good position to be impacted by several shortwaves
that are expected to slide along the northern portion of the
ridge.

For this afternoon, CAMs are keying in on a line of showers and
thunderstorms. CAMs bring this line on the doorstep of Orange
County starting sometime between 2 pm to as late as 6 pm this
afternoon and pushing south of Long Island from 11 pm to as late
as 2 am tonight. There is the potential for some heavy rainfall
with this line, leading to an instance or 2 of flash flooding.
Looking at 1"/hr thresholds, the RRFS shows an isolated spot of
over an inch an hour this evening, but of course, exactly where
that happens is uncertain. PWATs during this time frame look to
range form 1.75" to 2.25". Tall, skinny CAPE lends to warm rain
processes. So, moisture is there. The pre-frontal trough will
provide some decent lift. However, instability is the limiting
factor, with 200-700 J/kg among the models. Therefore, as
previously mentioned, isolated flash flooding is possible. WPC
continues the marginal for excessive rainfall for today. With
the high wet bulb zero and tall skinny CAPE and low LCL, severe
threat is low today.

Monday will be a bit of respite until late in the day as high
pressure builds in from the north, but a warm front approaches
from the southwest, allowing for POPs to increase once again.

As a surface low pressure system develops ahead of the
aforementioned shortwaves, the warm front is expected to
progress east and likely just to the north or on the northern
edge of the CWA into Tuesday and Wednesday, which has often been
the case this warm season thus far. The area will be more
unstable immediately south of the warm/stationary boundary, but
our area should remain close enough to boundary to allow a good
amount of synoptic scale/mid level forcing. This suggests a
period of unsettled weather with the potential for some periods
of convectively induced rainfall. SPC has placed the entire
area in a marginal threat for severe storms for this time
period, with slight just to our west. The primary threats are
damaging winds and hail, but an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out, though as of now, better dynamics for all of this is
to the west.

While there remains forecast uncertainty this far out, it
appears the region will have the potential for convectively
induced heavy rain and embedded thunderstorm activity. WPC
currently has the area under a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall Monday through Thursday morning, and SPC persists in
placing the area in a 15 percent chance of severe weather on Day
5 (Wednesday) which is rare to see this far out in time. So the
middle of next week will bear watching as PWATs are progged to
climb into the 1.5-2 inch neighborhood by Tuesday into Thursday.

The associated cold front approaches Wednesday night and the cold
front moves through on Thursday, continuing the chances for
unsettled weather through at least this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure shifts offshore into this morning. A frontal
system then moves through later today into tonight.

Mainly VFR. Chances for MVFR cigs and vsbys Sunday afternoon
into Sunday evening with potential for showers and
thunderstorms. PROB30 has been added for TSRA late
afternoon/evening today. MVFR chances increase into Sunday
night, but a lot of uncertainty on whether showers will linger
late into the night or not. For now have decided to prevail
showers overnight, given the latest guidance keeping things
around for longer.

Winds early this morning will generally be VRB or light out of
the SW. S/SW winds increase to 10-15 kt Sunday afternoon with
gusts up to around 20 kt. There is a chance gusts may be more
occasional. Winds diminish early tonight as directions turn NW.
Late into the night, winds become light and variable at some
terminals.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

PROB30s for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.

Gusts may end up being more occasional this afternoon.

Uncertainty surrounding how quickly winds diminish tonight.

Uncertainty on whether showers will linger late into the night
or not.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with showers likely. A
chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with chances of showers.
Showers likely early.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions prevail through the forecast period.
Waves do build to between 4 and 5 ft Wednesday into Thursday on
the ocean, so perhaps occasional 5 ft seas are possible during
this time frame.

Rip Currents:

Increasing S-SW winds and building seas to 3 ft this afternoon
will mean a moderate risk of rip currents along local ocean
beaches. The risk returns to low on Monday as the flow lightens
and swells fall to around 2 ft once again.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JP