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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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465 FXUS61 KOKX 060232 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1032 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A weak area of low pressure passes to the north Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a low end chance for precipitation for the interior. 2. Temperatures warm to near seasonable levels Thursday, followed by an increasing probability of above normal temperatures for later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain is currently leaving the area with dry conditions expected the rest of tonight. A weak low may bring some precipitation for inland areas Monday night into Tuesday, but PoPs are only 30 percent at this time. Some snowflakes may mix in, especially for higher terrain. With temperatures above freezing and light precipitation amounts forecast, no snow is expected to accumulated. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures will remain below average through the middle of the week, with the coldest readings on Wednesday. Highs will only be in the middle 40s to lower 50s. THe high moves offshore Wednesday night into Thursday allowing for a more moderate airmass to advect into the area toward the end of the week. Temperature uncertainty increases Thursday, mainly due to uncertainty around the sfc wind direction. With water temperatures still quite cold a more southerly or easterly component to the wind as opposed to a more westerly component will have a big effect on temperatures. Thus, have stayed with the NBM temperature guidance through Thursday night. However, with a cold front that likely washes out with rising heights just upstream look for the potential for noticeably warmer temperatures than consensus guidance is currently indicating for Friday, and on Saturday as well. For now staying close to the NBM, but there is a higher than average chance for adjustments going forward in time. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds in from the southwest into Monday morning. A surface trough passes through the area Monday afternoon. VFR. WNW/NW flow tonight, speeds increase to 10-15 kt with G20-25 kt toward 6Z, though some terminals may be more occasional with the gusts during the overnight. Gusts become frequent after 12Z Monday, then continuing much of the day. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts also may be more occasional than frequent overnight. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Low chance MVFR or lower possible in any showers. W-NW winds around 10 kt with gusts around 20 kt. Wednesday-Friday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for the ocean was extended through the day Monday as wave heights remain above 5 ft, though waves diminish through the day and SCA may come down for Sandy Hook to Fire Island inlet before the day`s end. Marginal small craft conditions are possible in NW flow Tuesday, possibly lingering on the eastern ocean waters Tuesday night. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions prevail for mid week during Wednesday into Thursday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/JT/MW AVIATION...DR MARINE...JP |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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