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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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088
FXUS61 KOKX 111113
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
713 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
1. Small Craft Advisories issued for today for NY Harbor and
the Long Island South shore Bays, and extended for the ocean
waters through this afternoon.
2. Raised temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday, with some
record high temperatures possible on Wednesday, and some record
high minimums possible each day.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry and mild with elevated fire weather concerns for
portions of the area today, then cooler on Sunday.
2. Noticeably warmer next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A gusty/drying NW flow takeS hold after fropa, with RH lowering
to 25-30% over most of the area as temps rise to the upper
50s/lower 60s and dewpoints drop to 25-30, with peak wind gusts
25-30 mph this morning into early afternoon. Special wx
statement already issued for NY/CT.
Winds will diminish toward evening as high pressure builds in
tonight into Sunday morning, then moves offshore Sunday
afternoon. A return flow off the ocean will keep temperatures
from getting out of the 50s on Sunday.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A noticeable warmup is still on track for next week as
overnight lows and daytime highs will be at least 10 degrees to
as much as 20-25 degrees above normal inland, with the warmest
days Wed/Thu. Upper ridging will be in place with nearly zonal
flow Monday into Tuesday as a series of warm front pass through,
with reinforcing ridging Wed/Thu. H8 temperatures on Wed should
peak near 15C and may reach 17C-18C on Thu, with inland
temperatures potentially reaching into the mid/upper 80s both
days per blend of NBM 90th percentile and 00Z GFS/ECMWF MOS
guidance. Inland areas will be the warmest as the low level
flow remains southwest, while coastal areas will be cooler, but
still well above normal levels, with a southerly sea breeze
influenced flow.
A surface trough developing Tue/Wed afternoons, along with
convergence with local sea breezes, may be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening,
though chance PoP is confined to inland sections attm. Cold
fropa later this week may be delayed until Thu night per latest
ECMWF.
Friday is expected to be cooler behind the cold front, but with
highs still reaching 75-80 inland.
A few daily record highs mat be tied or broken on Wed, as well
as record high minimum temperatures Tue through Thu.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west today, and remains in place
through Sunday morning.
VFR thru the TAF period.
NW winds increase to 10-15 kt this morning with gusts mainly at 20
to 25kt. The gusts end towards 0z, with a few city terminals perhaps
having gusts linger as late as 02z. Otherwise lighter NW to N winds
tonight mostly at 5 to 10kt, but falling below 5kt at outlying
terminals late. The winds will remain light into Sunday morning,
with a SE wind developing towards midday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. SE winds develop by afternoon at 5-12kt.
Monday: Mainly VFR. SW winds gusting 20-25kt.
Tuesday: VFR. SW winds.
Wednesday: VFR. SW-S winds 10g20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Issued SCA for NY Harbor and the Long Island south shore bays
from 8 AM until 2 PM for near shore post-frontal winds gusting
to 25 kt. Meanwhile, hazardous ocean seas of 5 ft should
continue through the day today, so SCA has been extended there
until 6 PM.
A strengthening S-SW flow could bring marginal SCA conditions
(both wind gusts and seas) to the ocean waters Mon into Mon
night, also possibly via gusts Mon afternoon to the south
shore/eastern bays of Long Island and the non ocean waters E of
Orient Point. Seas on the eastern ocean waters may not fall
below 5 ft until early Tue morning.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ338-
345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Goodman
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...Goodman
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