What's Happening In Newington

596
FXUS61 KOKX 030736
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
336 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost conditions for areas well N&W of NYC tonight.

2) Elevated risk of fire spread across portions of the region on
Sunday.

3) Moderating temps for Monday, rising to 10 to 15 degrees above
seasonable on Tuesday.

4) A slow-moving, strong frontal system will bring potential
for periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms late
Wednesday into Thursday Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mid and high level clouds across the Lower Hudson Valley are
keeping temperatures warmer than forecast. Still expecting gradual
drying and clearing for this area, but there is a chance that
widespread frost does not develop here if the clouds hang on
longer than forecast. If these clouds spill over into CT, frost
would be less likely here as well. Given uncertainty, opted to
keep the Frost Advisory in place.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of drying fine fuels, northwest wind gusts
between 20 and 25 mph, and relative humidity values between 25
and 35 percent will contribute to an elevated risk of fire
spread late Sunday morning into early Sunday evening for the
Lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long Island. This
forecast considers meteorological, fuel, and land conditions and
has been developed in coordination with state fire and land
management officials.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Northern stream trough slides offshore Monday, with zonal flow
aloft. This will allow high pressure to build south and then
offshore of the areas Monday into Tuesday, with a deep and gusty
SW flow advecting in a progressively warmer airmass. High temps
should moderate into the upper 60s to lower 70s areawide for
Monday.

850 hpa temps rise to 11 to 13C on Tuesday, which should
allow temps to rise well into the 70s to lower 80s for NYC metro
and interior for Tuesday, while a more backed S/SW flow keeps
south coastal areas in the lower 60s to lower 70s.


.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Models in good agreement with closed SW US upper low phasing
with broad northern stream trough across north Central US early
to mid week. This will likely dig and deepen into a -(2 to
3) STD Central US/Mid Mississippi river valley 500hpa trough by
midweek, which gradually sliding to the east coast late week.

At the surface, this will result in a slow moving frontal
system (with a series of low pressure waves along it) sliding
towards the area mid to late week. This will likely bring periods
of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms Wed aft into Thu
Night. Potential for a period of heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms Wed Night into Thu Night in response to deep
layered lift of +(2 to 3) STD PWATS (and weakly unstable
airmass) ahead of negatively tilting trough axis with moisture
convergence ahead/along of primary low pressure development.

Ensemble probabilities of 1" of precip in 24hr are low at this
point, but based on synoptic set-up and potential slow
progress of front the potential is there for these probs to
trend upwards. This is reinforced by the 00z CSU-MLP run
indicating a marginal probability of severe tstms and excessive
rainfall. More details as we progress through the mid week
period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure strengthens and moves towards Nova Scotia while high
pressure builds in from the southwest through the TAF period.

Rain expected to stay east of all terminals heading into this
morning. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Winds are northerly near 10 kt initially. Winds become more NW and
pick up slightly towards the morning hours with wind speeds near 10-
15 kt. Then gusts develop as winds further increase and become more
westerly. WNW flow expected late morning through the rest of the TAF
period. Sustained winds increase to within 15-20 kt range this
afternoon with gusts around 25 kt. Occasional peak gusts to around
30 kt will be possible. Winds subside tonight closer to 10 kt and
become more W-SW with gusts diminishing.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts could be a few hours off from TAF.

Peak gusts this afternoon possible to near 30 kt at times.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: VFR. W gusts near 20 kt diminish.

Monday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 15-20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of rain showers, mainly north and west
of NYC terminals late at night with MVFR or lower possible. SW wind
gusts near 20-25 kt.

Wednesday: Showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms. MVFR or lower
possible at times. SW wind gusts mainly around 20 kt.

Thursday: Showers continue, eventually tapering off late at night.
MVFR or lower possible at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure heading towards the Canadian Maritimes today
will bring marginal W/NW SCA gusts to the nearshore waters
during the day, with marginal ocean seas from a combo of 2-3ft
easterly swells and westerly wind wave.

Marginal S to SW SCA winds develops on Mon with increased
chances for SCA seas on the ocean waters. SCA conditions
expected on the ocean (likely all nearshore waters as well)
Tuesday through Thursday with strengthening and persistent SW
winds ahead of an approaching frontal system. Potential for low
end gales on Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005-006.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP