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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY

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610
FXUS61 KOKX 300021
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The area remains behind a cold front tonight with low pressure
remaining to the north bringing a long-lasting cold airmass. A
cold front moves through Wednesday night. High pressure builds
back in to end the week. Thereafter, another low pressure system
may impact the area late in the weekend or early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM Tuesday for
  wind gusts up to 50 mph.

* Dry and cold air filters in overnight and remains in place.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a strong pressure
gradient sets up, with the potential for W flow gusting upwards
of 50 mph. An isolated flurry is possible this evening as a
weak post-frontal trough moves across. Temperatures will drop
into the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM Tuesday with wind gusts up
  to 50 mph.

* Cold and mostly dry conditions expected. with a cold front
  bringing a chance of snow showers late Wednesday into
  Wednesday night.

Strong winds continue during the day on Tuesday with a Wind Advisory
in effect until 6 PM. The day is expected to be dry with a mix
of sun and clouds, though it may be more cloudy than not with an
upper trough and strong WNW flow allowing for deep mixing and
development of fairly widespread cloud cover. A stray snow
shower can`t be ruled out for far NW portions of the area.

Aside from the wind, the most noticeable feature will be the
significantly colder temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will
struggle to rise above freezing for the coast, with upper 20s
expected for the interior. Wind chills will be in the teens
and lower 20s during the day.

Winds slowly diminish to below advisory thresholds by Tuesday
night, but may remain gusty with gusts 20-30 mph possible.
Cold temperatures persist with lows in the lower/mid 20s.

Another shortwave rounds the base of the trough over the area on
Wednesday which will force a cold front through late in the day
and into Wednesday night, with a chance of snow showers. No
significant impacts are anticipated with this chance of snow
showers. Cold and brisk conditions are expected Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with highs in the lower/mid 30s, and lows at
night in the teens for the interior and lower 20s for the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
What`s Changed: There have been no significant changes to the long
term period, and the NBM was closely followed for this upcoming cold
and dry period.

* A cold and dry air mass encompasses the local area for the
  period. Expect temperatures to be about 5-10 degrees below
  normal through the weekend, with some moderation early next
  week.

* There is a chance of precipitation late Sunday into the
  overnight with a fast moving clipper system. This looks to be
  an all snow event, with perhaps some rain mixing in at coastal
  locations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with a cold front now off to the east, and strong low
pressure well to the northeast. The pressure difference between
this low and high pressure well to the southwest will generate
strong W winds gusting to 35-40 kt mainly through the evening
push and possibly again daytime Tue, especially in the morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday night: VFR. W winds 15-20G25-30kt early, diminishing to
15G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in -SN, mainly early. NW winds
G15-20kt.

Friday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gales expected on all waters through Tue with gusts upwards of
40-45 kt. The ocean waters may hang onto gale force wind gusts
for the first half of Tue night before dropping to SCA. SCA
cond then look to remain on the ocean through at least Wed
night, and from Tue night into much of daytime Wed for the non
ocean waters.

Seas over 5 ft linger on the ocean waters into daytime Thu, and
possibly into Thu night-Fri out east.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
     345.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DBR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MW

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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