What's Happening In Newington

848
FXUS61 KOKX 252332
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
732 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Periods of heavy downpours and scattered thunderstorms
likely developing Thursday into Thursday Night, mainly for NYC
and points N&W. Isolated instances of flash flooding and strong
to severe thunderstorm are possible, particularly west of the
Hudson River. Additional iso- sct shower and thunderstorm
activity is also possible Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Final day of high pressure Wednesday with seasonable temps and
mainly sunny skies. Changes arrive later Thursday in advance of
an approaching warm front. At this point the ESATs are not
overly impressive compared to past notable heavy rain events so
far this warm season. M-Climate and other anomalous indicators
are not overly impressive. PWATs get to 1.75 inches which is
high, but not as high or notable as some recent heavy rain
occurrences. Sfc dew points are progged to get to the upper 60s
and lower 70s so there will be a notable uptick in the humidity
during Thursday. The warm front pushes through late Thu/Thu
night, followed by a slowing cold front into Friday. The upper
trough axis approaches late Thu into Thu night and thus far the
NWP and AI guidance appears to having a lack of consolidation
with embedded shortwave activity. Will have to wait and see if
there is an increase in the bundling or consolidation of
shortwave activity in subsequent forecast packages which would
increase any synoptic forcing and up the potential for
widespread heavy rain. The Colorado State AI guidance is
indicating a slight risk of excessive rainfall for late
Thursday, while WPC maintains a marginal risk. In terms of
convective risk Thursday, the SPC maintains a marginal risk for
severe weather for much of the CWA including the NYC metro.
Latest CAMs show improved parameter space compared to previous
runs. Notably, the NAM suite shows 30-45kts of effective shear
coupled with 1500-1750 J/kg of sfc CAPE. Despite the somewhat
elevated parameter space, the front will likely cross through
after sunset Thursday which could limit the extent of severe.

For Friday with upper level troughing in place and a lingering
cold front nearby, there will remain the chance of scattered
shower and t-storm activity capable of producing heavy rain and
gusty winds. The front should begin to inch its way offshore
Friday night into Saturday morning as per global NWP and AI
consensus. Therefore at this point in time the weekend appears
to be nice and dry with seasonably warm temperatures and
slightly lower humidity levels from the previous couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pres builds over the area tngt and offshore on Wed.

VFR thru the TAF period.

Winds lighten this evening and become generally NW overnight.
Light flow Wed mrng, backing to the S/SW aft 15Z and continuing
thru Wed eve.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shift on Wednesday could be off by an hour or
two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Light S/SW winds.

Thursday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR w/ SHRA and TSRA.

Friday: MVFR or lower at times w/ SHRA and TSRA.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR. Light winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub small craft conditions are expected for the remainder of this
week.

Occasional gusts to 20 kt this afternoon along nearshore
waters this afternoon into evening.

A southerly flow increases late Wed night into Thursday, with
ocean seas getting to around 4 ft and gusts approaching 20 kt.
Otherwise, sub advisory conditions prevail with seas and winds
diminishing for the weekend with a light pressure gradient with
high pressure building across for the weekend.

Rip Currents:

Low risk of rips for NYC and western half of LI beaches for this
afternoon and evening with a combo of 1 to 2 ft E/SE wind waves
and swells, with a moderate risk for the E Suffolk beaches,
where there will be a greater influence of 2-3 ft SW wind waves.

A moderate risk of rip currents likely developing Wednesday
afternoon for all beaches with building 2 ft SE swells.

A moderate risk of rip currents expected for Thursday afternoon
for all beaches with building 3-4 ft wind waves and lingering 2
ft SE swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$