What's Happening In Newington

236
FXUS61 KOKX 071917
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
317 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Freeze Warning issued for tonight for portions of NYC/NJ metro.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Widespread freeze expected tonight into Wednesday morning.

2. Drier, cooler conditions settle in midweek.

3. A warming trend for late week with above normal temperatures
likely Friday into Saturday. Potential for well above normal
temps for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold fropa this afternoon has kicked up NW winds behind it and
CAA is ushering in a cooler air mass as a 1036 mb surface high
builds in from the Great Lakes.

This sets up a cold April night ahead, with most falling below
freezing into Wed AM. Outlying areas like the interior valleys
and Pine Barrens may be able to decouple and fall a bit more
than guidance suggests, perhaps even into the upper teens in the
coldest locales with efficient radiative cooling.

Urban metro likely remains more mixed, but still anticipate
temperatures to fall into the low 30s. Freeze Warning issued for
areas where the growing season has started (NYC metro, Hudson,
eastern Essex and Union in NJ, and Nassau on Long Island).
Not anticipating much in the way of frost with the dry low
levels and lingering flow.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Upper trough axis slides east into midweek, with rising heights
aloft. At the surface, the modifying polar high builds in from
the Great Lake, sliding over the region into Wed night and
offshore by Thursday. This will maintain dry conditions locally
through at least Thursday.

H925 temps fall to around -5C on Wednesday, which should mix
down into the mid to upper 40s for most in the afternoon, or
about 10 degrees below normal for the time of year. Slight
moderation of the air mass Wed night will likely keep the urban
metro from falling to freezing once again, but good radiational
cooling conditions should allow outlying areas to fall back
into the 20s.

Return flow sets up Thursday with the offshore high, and
temperatures nudge up a few degrees, but still below normal in
the upper 40s and 50s.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Good model agreement continues on broad troughing over central
Canada and then nrn Plains  moving ewd across ern Canada and the
Northeast Fri into Sat, which should send a cold front through Sat
morning. Prior to fropa, temps should already have begun a warming
trend, with highs 65-70 from NYC north/west (50-10 degrees above
normal), and mid 50s to lower lower 60s for Long Island and most of
S CT (near normal). Air mass behind the front will be only slightly
cooler than that for the weekend as strong Canadian high pressure
builds across, with highs mostly from the mid 50s to mid 60s, still
a few degrees above normal from NYC north/west.

A more appreciable warming trend should take place early next week
as a return flow develops on the back side of the high as it departs
out into the Atlantic, and as a warm front passes to the N. Highs on
Mon should reach the mid/upper 70s from NYC north/west and the 60s
east of there. Even warmer temps expected on Tue, upper 70s/lower
80s from NYC north/west and 60 to lower 70s east. These numbers are
15-20 degrees above normal north/west and about 5-10 degrees above
normal east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in through Wednesday.

VFR. Lingering isolated showers are moving through the area with
potential for KBDR and KGON to see -SHRA. No cig or vsby
restrictions are expected.

NW flow 10-20 kt with gusts near 25 to 30 kt today. Peak gusts
in the 30-35 kt range expected latter half of this afternoon
into early this evening. Gusts decrease tonight but will still
be near 20 to 25 kt on average. Wind direction becomes more
northerly late tonight and more northeasterly for early
Wednesday as they continue to lower. Potential for many
terminals to go VRB Wednesday morning before afternoon
seabreeze/synoptic return flow.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional peak gusts to near 35-40 kt can not be ruled out.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Afternoon through Friday: VFR.

Friday night: Mainly VFR. Potential for MVFR or lower in rain
showers. Highest chances north and west of NYC terminals.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory continues on all waters with gusts 25 to 30
kt persisting thru late day. Winds gradually diminish this
evening and tonight, with sub-SCA conditions expected Wednesday
and Thursday with a weak pressure gradient under high pressure.

Hazardous ocean seas of 5+ ft possible from Fri afternoon into Sat
evening via incoming SE swell from an offshore low. Highest swells
of 6 ft expected Fri night into Sat morning. These hazardous seas
should subside Sat evening after a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     NYZ072>075-176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR/Goodman
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DR/Goodman