What's Happening In Newington

103
FXUS61 KOKX 301935
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
335 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Extreme Heat Warning is now in effect for the entire region
and has been extended through Friday. The Extreme Heat Watch
remains in effect for Saturday due to continued uncertainty.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Record to near record, dangerous heat is expected to start
Wednesday, peak Thursday through Friday and potentially linger
into Saturday, with little overnight relief. This level of heat
can be deadly for those without adequate cooling and hydration.
Impacts to transportation infrastructure and electrical and
water systems are also possible.

2) Scattered thunderstorms are possible nearly every
afternoon/evening through Saturday.

3) There is a high risk of rip currents on Wednesday. (See
marine section for discussion).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Models continue to be in impressive agreement on the
development of anomalously strong ridging over the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys through the end of the week, ushering in several
days of record to near record heat leading into the holiday
weekend. The ridge eventually begins to break down this weekend
in response to a closed low developing over eastern Canada,
returning the local region to more zonal flow aloft. At the
surface, high pressure shifts east tonight, then remains
anchored offshore through the weekend while gradually drifting
south.

This sets the stage for a prolonged period of hot and humid
conditions across the local area. An Excessive Heat Warning is
now in effect for the entire region for Wednesday through
Friday. For much of the area, temperatures in the mid to upper
90s will combine with dew points around 70 to yield heat index
values around 105 degrees. Temperatures and heat index values
will likely be tempered somewhat across Long Island and far
southeastern Connecticut in strong southwest flow, but still
expecting a hot and humid day.

The core of the heat is expected on Thursday and Friday, with
temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s both days away from
the immediate coastline. Would not be surprised to see a few
places reach temperatures around 105, especially in typically
hotter locations across northeast New Jersey. Expect dew points
will end up several degrees lower than currently advertised by
the NBM as it tends to have a high bias with afternoon
dewpoints. The LREF demonstrates this potential nicely, but
ultimately this will make little difference in the expected heat
index values, which will range from 105-110 across much of the
area both days.

In addition to the high daytime temperatures, overnight lows
will offer little in the way of relief, with temperatures likely
remaining in the 80s in urban areas both Thursday and Friday
night and in the mid to upper 70s elsewhere.

This level of heat can be deadly for those without adequate
cooling and hydration. Impacts to transportation (rail, bridge,
road/tarmac) infrastructure and electrical (high demand
electrical) and water systems (open hydrants reducing water
pressure) have been noted with previous heat events of this
severity and duration.

With the ridge breaking down, elected to continue with the
Extreme Heat Watch on Saturday. While temperatures once again
look to rise into the mid to upper 90s, heat index values at
this point generally look to remain under 105 degrees. In
addition, the weather overall appears more unsettled with
greater potential for afternoon cloud cover, all of which
reduces forecast confidence.

More significant relief comes into the start of the new work
week as temperatures trend down into the 80s and a series of
disturbances aloft result in a period of unsettled weather.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
With the local region on the northern periphery of the upper
ridge, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible nearly
every afternoon/evening through at least Saturday, although
there is inherent uncertainty in the day to day timing,
placement, and strength of any convective activity.

For tonight, and MCS over northern New York continues to dive
southward toward the region. Expect this to largely dissipate as
it approaches the region as instability is quite limited
locally, but can`t rule out some activity reaching the northern
half of the CWA. Instability looks better on Wednesday, although
at the moment the best upper support remains north of the
region. SPC has expanded the slight risk into portions of the
Lower Hudson Valley.

Thereafter, with the building ridge Thursday continues to have
the best chance of remaining dry, with greater storm coverage
possible for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic through the
TAF period.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected. A complex of showers and
thunderstorms moving across upstate NY will weaken as it
approaches from the north this evening. There may be an isolated
thunderstorm well NW of the NYC metro and a few lingering
showers as the complex weakens. Have included a VCSH this
evening to account for this potential. Confidence is too low to
include TSRA in the TAF at this time.

S-SW winds 10-15 kt this afternoon. Gusts 20-25 kt are possible
this afternoon/early evening, especially for coastal terminals.
Gusts should end around 00z with sustained wind speeds
weakening to 10 kt or less overnight. SW winds increase again
Wednesday morning, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt
Wednesday afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional this afternoon/early evening at EWR and
TEB.

Remnants of a weakening complex of showers/thunderstorms could
bring a few showers this evening, generally 00-04z. TSRA chances
are very low.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.Wednesday PM: VFR, Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in
the afternoon and evening. Gusts 15-25 kt in the
afternoon/evening, strongest along the coast.

.Thursday: Mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the
afternoon and evening.

.Friday: Mainly VFR. Isolated shower or thunderstorms with MVFR
in the afternoon and evening. W wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon
into evening.

.Saturday-Sunday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening with MVFR or lower possible at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains is in effect for the western
Long Island Sound, NY Harbor, South Shore Bays and the ocean
waters from Sandy Hook to Moriches Inlet out 20 NM. This is due
to S/SW flow that will bring 25 kt gusts and brief 5 ft seas to
the ocean waters.

Another SCA will likely be needed especially for the ocean
waters on Wednesday as S/SW flow increases to 25 kt again and
ocean seas increase to 5 to 6 ft.

Gusts around 25 kt and seas around 5 ft are possible again
Thursday evening on the ocean. Thereafter, conditions are
expected to remain below SCA conditions.


Rip Currents:

There is a high risk of rip currents for ocean beaches
Wednesday due to a 15 to 20 kt S to SSW flow and 5ft 5s swell.
While slightly weaker flow is expected on Thursday, swells will
be nearly the same, or slightly higher for most ocean beaches.
There is some uncertainty for eastern Long Island beaches, as
the flow will be even weaker and swell heights slightly lower
compared to the rest of the ocean beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 100/1963
KBDR: 95/1963
KNYC: 100/1901
KLGA: 97/2018
KJFK: 102/1963
KISP: 96/1964

July 2:
KEWR: 102/1966
KBDR: 100/1966
KNYC: 100/1966
KLGA: 101/1966
KJFK: 101/1966
KISP: 99/1966

July 3:
KEWR: 105/1966
KBDR: 99/1966
KNYC: 103/1966
KLGA: 107/1966
KJFK: 104/1966
KISP: 104/1966

July 4:
KEWR: 105/1949
KBDR: 98/1949
KNYC: 102/1949
KLGA: 100/1949
KJFK: 101/2010
KISP: 97/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 77/2018
KBDR: 73/2013
KNYC: 79/2018
KLGA: 79/2018
KJFK: 75/1968
KISP: 73/2025

July 2:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 82/1901
KLGA: 78/2002
KJFK: 74/2018
KISP: 74/2014

July 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018

July 4:
KEWR: 81/2002
KBDR: 80/2002
KNYC: 81/2002
KLGA: 82/1999
KJFK: 80/2002
KISP: 76/2002

July 5:
KEWR: 81/1999
KBDR: 74/2018
KNYC: 82/1999
KLGA: 86/1999
KJFK: 80/1999
KISP: 78/1999

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-
     009>011.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     CTZ005>007-009>011.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Wednesday to 9 PM EDT Friday
     for CTZ005>012.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     176-178.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Wednesday to 9 PM EDT Friday
     for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon Wednesday to 9 PM EDT Friday
     for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ335-338-
     345-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FEB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...FEB/JP