What's Happening In Newington

832
FXUS61 KOKX 130631
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
231 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No notable changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A noticeable warm up begins today.

2) The warm up becomes more widespread across the region into mid
week with the warmth peaking Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front pushes through during the first half of today with
unsettled conditions remaining primarily north of the region,
although some clouds hang around until midday. A return flow out of
the SW sets up this afternoon with gusty winds primarily out of the
SW, with hybrid sea breeze setting up with more of a pure southerly
component to the flow for coastal sections, especially further east.
This sets up a wide range in temperatures this afternoon with upper
50s for daytime maxes today for far eastern coastal sections, with
upper 70s to around 80 closer to and west of the NYC metro.
Northwestern LI and western portions of southern CT will likely get
well into the 70s today beginning a significant warm up for the
region.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
500 mb height will remain fairly steady state, with 570dm+ likely to
remain in place through Thursday. The only question is how much of a
southerly component to the sfc winds will take place and for how
much of the region. For Tuesday and Wednesday a W to WSW wind should
prevail through midday across the entire region. This will allow
temperatures to climb quickly both days, even for most coastal
sections. Then later during the afternoon hours a sea breeze should
develop in response to the rapid warming and the winds at the sfc
will become more southerly, and therefore temperatures should fall
later in the day for coastal sections, but not before temperatures
climb well above normal. Daytime maxes by Wednesday likely get into
the upper 80s and maybe even touching 90 in the warmest locations
across metro NE NJ. This is supported by 850 mb temperature forecast
of 15-16 C. On a side note, the chance of showers and any convection
appear to be low through mid week. Some CAM guidance is suggestive
of a chance / slight chance of showers and a few thunderstorms late
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. However, the best forcing looks to
remain north of the region, thus the chances of convection and any
impactful thunderstorm activity appear to be rather low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will continue to slide offshore overnight while a warm
front passes to the north. Low pressure will pass to the north
later today.

VFR overnight. A period of MVFR cigs appears likely for at least a
couple hours in the morning at the NYC metros/KHPN between 12Z-15Z,
for a longer period farther east, 11Z-16Z at KBDR and 13Z-17Z at
KISP. KGON should see prevailing MVFR cigs beginning around 10Z,
possibly becoming IFR from 15Z-18Z.

LLWS expected at KISP/KGON before 13Z with SW winds 40-45 kt at
FL020.

Light SE-S winds overnight should become SW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-
25 kt early, then WSW 15-20 kt with gusts 25-40 kt late. Peak winds
mid to late afternoon could reach 25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt at
KEWR/KLGA/KJFK.

Winds should diminish after 00Z Tue.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Increasing confidence in timing of MVFR cigs.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Tuesday through Friday: Mainly VFR but with chance of
afternoon/evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC
metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could
gusts 15-20kt each afternoon Tue-Thu as well.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions are expected across all waters today with a
gusty WSW to SW flow regime. Later tonight small craft conditions
subside, first for the non-ocean waters during the evening, then
later at night across the western ocean. By Tuesday AM sub advisory
conditions will prevail across all waters. By late in the afternoon
and early evening marginal small craft conditions are expected for
the ocean and the south shore bays of LI, otherwise sub advisory
conditions are expected. Marginal small craft conditions are
expected to develop once again for the same locations late Wednesday
and late Thursday in association with sea breeze development and a
diurnal increase in southerly flow. Sub advisory conditions are
anticipated Friday with ocean seas primarily around 3 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed April 15:
KEWR: 88/1960
KBDR: 81/1960
KNYC: 87/1941
KLGA: 86/1941
KJFK: 80/2006
KISP: 78/2024

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ331.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JE