What's Happening In Newington

038
FXUS61 KOKX 041444
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Highs adjusted upward today, especially along the coast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Much warmer this morning along the coast, highs raised today
before cooler easterly winds develop this afternoon.

2. Periods of fog and drizzle possible through late tonight,
ending with a period of rain from a cold frontal passage on
Sunday.

3. Cooler, quieter conditions settle in mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Temperatures have warmed above forecast highs along most
coastal locations. Northerly winds and more sunshine have
allowed for this quick warmup. Much cooler air will move in
later this afternoon as winds become easterly.

Highs are now forecast to get into the upper 60s to lower 70s,
before dropping off quickly mid to late afternoon. Leaned toward
the the latest HRRR.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure builds north of the area today as a low pressure
system develops well west of the area.

Following a cold frontal passage, high pressure north of the
area shifts east through the day allowing N winds veer to the
ENE, reinforcing a more marine airmass back over the area late
today . The NE flow also brings the chance of low stratus and
fog development tonight as a strongly inverted low level will
trap moisture in the BL.

The weak front once again stalls near or just south of the area
tonight. As the frontal system from the west approaches into
Sunday, the front may move back north as a weak warm front,
allowing for the development of scattered showers over the area
late tonight. The associated cold front will gradually push
through on Sunday, bringing a period of rainfall to the entire
area as the front pushes through. Instability will be low but a
few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out along with pockets of
moderate to possibly briefly heavy rainfall. Total rainfall
accumulations of 0.25-0.5 inches are possible across the entire
area.

Following the frontal passage, conditions look to dry out as
high pressure noses in from the south Sunday night into Monday.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Weak front moves through Monday night into Tuesday, with
conditions turning cooler and quieter behind it through mid next
week. A few scattered showers, perhaps even mixing with wet
snow across the interior, are possible with the fropa early Tue
AM, but coverage appears spotty and QPF is light.

Surface high pressure then builds over the region in its wake
with dry conditions expected. The high ushers in a cool
Canadian air mass, with daytime temperatures likely in the 40s
and 50s, or about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for early April.
These cooler conditions become more seasonable by Thursday with
perhaps a warming trend into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front passes this morning. High pressure builds in today,
and over the Atlc tngt. A stronger cold front approaches from
the W on Sun.

VFR conditions continue through this afternoon. Fog and perhaps
DZ develop tngt with IFR or lower likely. Rain develops aft 12Z
Sun ahead of the next front.

NE winds this morning become E/SE 10-20 kt this afternoon and
eve, before decreasing overnight. Winds veer to the SW and
increase again Sun mrng before the next fropa.

Marginal LLWS ern arpts Sun mrng, and has been included in the
TAF for ISP.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Fog and DZ coverage could be quicker and more widespread tngt,
however timing likely remains aft 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: IFR/LIFR cond with fog and low stratus in the morning,
otherwise showers with MVFR cond. Improving to VFR by evening.
SW winds G20kt daytime, becoming NW late in the day.

Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G15-20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any showers. W winds
around 10 kt with G15-20 kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in any showers. N winds becoming
NE at 10 kt or less.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory on the ocean has been extended through
tonight. While conditions may drop below SCA this morning, gusts
will once again approach 25 kt this afternoon with seas right
around 5 feet through tonight, even as gusts drop off.

An approaching frontal system will lead to climbing seas and
stronger winds. Gusts of near 35 kt are possible on Sunday with a
Gale Watch remaining in effect for portions of the ocean.

Decreasing winds and seas on Mon, then all waters blw SCA lvls
through at least Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW/MW
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...MW