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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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767 FXUS61 KOKX 141444 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 944 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Snow has generally pushed south of the region. A flurry is possible across SE CT, but dew point depressions are large and radar returns light, so virga is more likely. Slight northward track with low pressure system Sunday night into Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The probability for a light accumulating snowfall has increased slightly for Sunday night into Monday. Best chance along the coast. 2) Progressive low pressure systems will bring rain/snow/mixed p- type chances mid to late week. Low predictability on p-type details remain at this point. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Operational 00Z GFS and ECMWF continue to come in a bit farther north with the low track. Ensembles still support a low track well south of the area Sunday night into Monday, but the ECMWF ensemble mean is slightly farther north and a couple of mb stronger than previous run. The GFS ensemble mean is generally the same track as the previous run, but also a couple of mb deeper. The respective AI models are also a bit farther north, now introducing some QPF into the forecast area, whereas previous runs did not. This is likely due to the slightly more amplified northern stream shortwave that allows the surface low off shore to strengthen, bringing in more moisture into the region. Chances for at least some minor accumulations have increased. However, if the operational GFS verifies, we could see high end advisory level snow across NYC, Long Island, and NE NJ. Did not want to jump on board with something as drastic as the GFS just yet, but if the northward trend continues, higher snowfall would be expected. Right now, a 1-2" (closer to 1", though locally higher amounts of 2" or slightly higher are possible) is expected for much of Long Island, with all other areas under an inch. Temperatures during this time are just below normal with highs in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the upper teens inland to the 20s at the coast. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A warm front is progged to approach by NWP and AI consensus forecast guidance towards late Wednesday and Wednesday night. The associated front is expected to move slowly through the area Wednesday, then south of the area through Friday. Continue to carry chance to low end likely PoPs during this time frame via the NBM. The front will be close enough during this time frame to warrant chance to low end likely PoPs Wednesday into Wednesday night via the NBM. Forecast uncertainty increases further into Friday, but with the remaining near the area, there remains a slight chance to chance POPs through Friday. This may bring higher coverage of frozen p-types with the second system towards the tail end of next week. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure remains in control through Sunday morning. VFR. W-WSW wind 10 kt or less become W 8-12 kt into early afternoon, then NW by late day. A few gusts to 20 kt possible. Winds diminish this evening, becoming light and variable at the outlying terminals tonight. Flow gradually veers N, then NE, on Sunday, speeds remain under 10 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional gusts around 20 kt possible 17Z-21Z KEWR and KTEB. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday: VFR. Sunday night and Monday: MVFR or lower possible at coastal terminals with chance of snow into Monday morning. Tuesday: VFR. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible. Rain/snow mix possible, especially inland, Wednesday and Wednesday night. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-advisory conditions are expected through Sunday night. A deepening coastal low is then forecast to pass well south of the area Sunday night into Monday. Monday night into Tuesday night a period of 4 to 6 ft ocean seas are expected, especially further east. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions will prevail into the middle of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...DR MARINE...JP |
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NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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