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027
FXUS61 KOKX 092345
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
645 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A series of weak cold fronts push through over the next couple of
days. Despite this it remains predominantly dry and seasonably mild.

2) Low pressure may impact the region late Thursday into Friday
night, bringing potential of widespread rain and gusty winds.
Impacts, if any, at this time remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Several shortwaves embedded in an upper level NW flow regime pass
through and nearby the area through Tuesday night allowing for
continued gusty conditions both through this evening and again
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The limited amount of moisture present
in these shortwaves will likely result in a mostly or entirely dry
frontal passage.

A lull in the winds tonight may allow for some localized radiational
cooling where temperatures may drop into the lower 30s, otherwise,
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

No significant changes to the potential complex system toward
the end of the week.

The medium range global and AI guidance continue to wrestle
with different details / scenarios with regard to low pressure
emerging out of the Ohio Valley during Wednesday night into
Thursday. The difference among the NWP and AI guidance increases
Friday into early Saturday with regard to whether the upper
level energy catches up to sfc low pressure and lower level
moisture. This scenario would stall low pressure and give it
another means to deepen later Friday into early Saturday. Thus
there are two solutions.

The first being a flatter wave which brings light rain Thursday
into Friday morning, with low pressure strengthening well
offshore with clearing to begin the weekend. The second scenario
would involve a less progressive storm system with consolidated
redevelopment off the Northern Mid Atlantic coast just south of
Long Island with rain redeveloping later Friday and Friday
night and potentially lasting into Saturday morning.

At this time impacts appear limited with rain being more
stratiform in nature and the winds likely having enough of a
northerly component which would limit any coastal flood
concerns. It is possible that some wet snow could mix in with
any rain in the higher elevations well inland as the region gets
on the back side of the storm system Friday night / early
Saturday morning. Confidence in this occurring is rather low at
this time with the lack of a low level cold air source, with any
impacts appearing to be negligible based on the latest NWP
consensus forecast. Some gusty winds may develop closer to the
coast during this time frame, with gusty winds possible region
wide as the system departs Friday night into Saturday. Latest
guidance is not indicating wind advisory conditions, but this
may be subject to change if stronger development occurs closer
to the coast later Friday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains centered well south and west of the region
into Tuesday.

VFR.

WNW winds 15-20kt with gusts 25-30kt, highest for the city
terminals. Winds will gradually lower tonight from near 15 kt to
near 10 kt. Outlying terminals will drop to around 5 kt
overnight. Occasional gusts 20-25kt will end within a couple of
hours of 00Z, with wind direction WNW to W. W Winds then
increase Tuesday morning with gusts 20-25kt developing late in
the morning and shift more to the WSW in the afternoon. Gusts
diminish after 23Z Tuesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts should end between 00Z-02Z or may be more occasional
through this time frame.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: VFR. W winds diminishing to 5 to 10 kt overnight.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday through Friday night: VFR Thursday morning, lowering to
MVFR/IFR in the afternoon and lasting through Friday night with
periods of rain. E winds G 25-30kt possible Thurs afternoon and
evening, shifting northerly for Friday with gusts around 25kt still
possible through Friday night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR with showers, mainly in the morning. Snow
showers possibly mixed in north of the city terminals. N-NW winds G.
20-25kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A pressure gradient remains in place through the first half of the
week with small craft conditions and marginal small craft conditions
much of the time through at least Tuesday. Will continue small
craft conditions for most of the non-ocean through today, with
far eastern LI Sound likely maintaining small craft conditions
into a good portion of the evening.

A brief lull in SCA conditions are anticipated late tonight and
into Tuesday morning but another low pressure is expected to
result in SCA wind gusts and waves on the ocean. As such, the
SCA on the central and eastern ocean zones has been extended
through 6Z Wednesday. The western ocean zone will likely need
another SCA but the gap between the winding down of SCA
conditions tonight and the return of SCA conditions on Tuesday
is large enough to not issue at this time.

Conditions wane into Wednesday with sub-SCA conditions expected
for all waters until late Thursday with small craft conditions
returning across all waters and will likely continue into at
least the first half of the weekend. A period of gales is
possible on the ocean and potentially a portion of the non-ocean
waters later in this time frame depending on the development of
low pressure along and off the coast.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ332-
     355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MW