What's Happening In Newington

256
FXUS61 KOKX 271540
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1140 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm today.

2) High heat and humidity becoming increasingly likely from mid to
late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers in association with a weak wave of low pressure and
stalled frontal boundary just to our south will pass through
today into tonight. Latest CAM`s are signaling potential for
locally heavy rain and embedded tstms mid to late afternoon
mainly N/W of NYC as a mid level shortwave trough approaches
from central PA and acts on a very moist air mass, with PW
1.75-2 inches and tall/skinny CAPE less than 500 J/kg. The 12Z
HREF predicts a 30-40% chance of an inch of rain in 3 hours
mainly over NE NJ and adjacent portions of the lower Hudson
Valley. Otherwise, today will not be a washout, with most of the
activity elsewhere being on the light side. An isolated
thunderstorm is also possible across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson
Valley with the highest instability out that way. However, no
severe storms expected.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A highly anomalous amplified upper flow will be featured across
the country from mid to late week, with a trough out west and a
a high centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Heights are
greater than 594 dm, about 2 SD above normal, and 85H temps on
Thursday on the latest 00Z GFS are at or just above 22C. There
is still some uncertainty with the upper ridge strength and
magnitude as disturbances round the ridge across the Northeast.
The 00Z GFS is still supporting a convective complex dropping
across the Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
sending a back door cold front through the area.

NBM temperatures for the long term were a few degrees too warm,
especially for Thursday and Friday, most notably with a 105 high
temperature near KTEB on Thursday. This seems too high with the
aforementioned 22C at 85H. More realistic highs for NE NJ are
upper 90s to lower 100s, slightly lower for NYC with the rest of
the area in the middle to upper 90s, except cooler at the
immediate coast. Slightly cooler readings are expected region-
wide Friday. Record highs during this time are mainly 100 plus.
So some pretty stout records are in place. If the NBM highs pan
out however, they would tie or break records for Thursday.

Max heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria (95-99 for
two days, 100-104 for one day) by Wednesday, with isolated
readings reaching Extreme Heat Warning criteria (105+). Thursday
will see widespread 105+ across the forecast area. Lower max
heat index values expected Friday, with Heat Advisory possible
for most places except NE NJ, NYC, and western Long Island,
where Extreme Heat Warnings may be possible once again.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak low pressure along a front remains near the region during
the TAF period with high pressure returning late in the TAF
period.

Periodic widely scattered showers through the day. Mainly VFR
forecast but occasional MVFR possible within some showers.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into
early evening also.

Winds less than 10 kts through the TAF period with variable
directions at times. Generally more southerly wind directions
this afternoon and more easterly tonight into Sunday.

Mainly VFR tonight. Possible MVFR/IFR with patchy fog east of
the NYC metro terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible to refine timing of showers which could be a
few hours off from TAF.

Amendments possible to lower category with showers to MVFR.

Possible afternoon into early evening thunderstorm, mainly north
and west of NYC terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: Possible MVFR forecast afternoon with showers for
northern terminals. Otherwise VFR.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with chances for showers and
thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into
early evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds through the
middle of next week. Could see some winds approaching 25 kt
Tue afternoon and Wed afternoon in a southerly flow.

Rip Currents:

The rip current risk looks to be low over the weekend with 1-2
ft swell sets varying between 5-10s and onshore winds at or
below 10 kt. Recent observations at area beaches were also
supporting a lower risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BG
AVIATION...99
MARINE...BG