What's Happening In Newington

436
FXUS61 KOKX 070612
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
212 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Brief showers (possibly mixed with wet snow inland) possible
tonight and then again Tuesday afternoon.

2. Unseasonably cool temperatures expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

3. A warming trend begins Thursday with above normal temperatures
Friday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A broad upper trough over the northeastern US will remain in
place through Tuesday. A shortwave within the trough will swing
across the Great Lakes tonight and move across the area on
Tuesday. The shortwave will send a cold front and weak wave of
low pressure through the area late tonight into early Tuesday.

The aforementioned system will support the potential of a few
showers tonight. Some of the coldest locations across the
interior could see some wet snow flakes mixed in with any shower
activity. The showers are expected to be light and no snow is
expected to accumulate due to surface temperatures remaining
above freezing.

There will be a lull in any shower activity after day break
Tuesday as the front and low pressure push offshore. The upper
trough axis will swing across the area in the afternoon. Daytime
heating and a pocket of cold air aloft will steepen lapse rates
into the afternoon. The cyclonic flow in combination with these
ingredients support a isolated shower development. The latest
CAMs all signal this potential in the afternoon. Moisture is
limited, but a few locations could see a brief shower. Dew
points will be falling through the day, so lower wet bulb
temperatures could support a few snow flakes or ice pellets
across the interior. It is very possible that no measurable
precip will occur out of these showers, but felt there was
enough evidence to raise PoPs to slight chance across the area,
about 15 percent higher than the NBM PoPs. Any shower
development could produce locally gusty winds due to the dry
subcloud layer, outside of the synoptic wind gusts of 20-30 mph
in the afternoon.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Unseasonably cool temperatures are expected Tuesday through
Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday will be a few degrees below normal
in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Cold advection likely continues
into Tuesday night with temperatures bottoming out in the mid
20s inland and upper 20s and lower 30s closer to the coast.

The growing season has begun across the NYC metro (4/1), but
has not begun elsewhere. Winds may not completely decouple,
which could prevent temperatures from dropping as low as the
NBM, especially if cold advection ends overnight. Temperatures
may also struggle to fall below freezing if winds decouple,
since radiational cooling is not as efficient across the
urbanized areas. Did not sway from the NBM temperature forecast,
but have held off on an issuance of a freeze watch for Tuesday
night with this forecast. Will let subsequent shifts assess
temperature trends with potential need for a frost/freeze
headline.

High pressure settles over the area on Wednesday. This will
keep the cool conditions over the Tri-State with high
temperatures a few degrees colder compared to Tuesday due to
less mixing. It should end up slightly warmer Wednesday night in
areas where the Another cold night is in store Wednesday night
with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

A warming trend begins on Thursday with temperatures rising
into the mid to upper 50s away from the immediate coast. Onshore
flow will influence temperatures close to the coast where highs
may struggle to reach the low 50s.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The high pressure will move offshore to end the week. Ridging
builds aloft until another shortwave passage early this weekend.
This will send a weak cold front across the region.
Temperatures will be warming to above normal levels Thursday
into Friday. There is a chance temperatures on Saturday could
end up warmer than the NBM, depending on the timing of the cold
front passage. Despite the cold front, temperatures should still
remain above normal on Sunday. Another ridge looks to build
over the east coast early next week with warm temperatures
continuing across the area. Dry conditions expected late week
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A wave of low pressure moves across the region early today with a
cold front passing through the region also.

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There are
some rain showers moving across before daybreak. Some additional
showers are possible later today. For more northern terminals,
some mixing with snow can be expected. No measurable snow
accumulation expected. Some isolated brief MVFR conditions are
possible with some shower activity.

Winds transition from being light and variable to more NW and
increasing in speed during the TAF period. Sustained winds increase
to near 10-20 kt with gusts increasing to near 25 to 30 kt
today. Gusts decrease tonight but will still be near 20 to 25
kt on average.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of rain showers could be off by 1-2 hours from TAF.

Occasional peak gusts to near 35-40 kt possible today.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late Tonight: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Some afternoon SE wind gusts to 15-20 kt along parts
of the coast.

Thursday: VFR.  Some afternoon SE wind gusts to 15-20 kt along parts
of the coast.

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels tonight.

A few gusts up to 25 kt are are possible on the ocean, NY
Harbor, and the western Sound Tuesday afternoon. Think they will
be occasional or limited in areal extent, so have continued with
no SCA for now. Seas should remain below 5 ft.

High pressure Wednesday and Thursday will lead to a weak
pressure gradient and winds and seas below Advisory levels.
Ocean seas could build close to 5 ft Friday into Saturday with
an in creasing return flow as the high moves offshore.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Goodman/DS