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FXUS61 KOKX 102027 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
427 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added small craft advisories to all waters Sunday through Sunday
night. See marine section for more details. Otherwise, no other
significant changes made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low pressure with remnants of Isaias approaches Sunday and
moves south of Long Island early Monday with overall minor
impacts to the area.

2) For coastlines, possible minor coastal flooding early in the
week with possible high surf for ocean beaches, especially for
Long Island ocean beaches.

3) Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms Tuesday night
into early Wednesday with a quick moving system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Increasing, lowering, thickening clouds along with development
of light onshore flow will make for relatively warmer lows
tonight. Min temperatures forecast range only from lower 40s to
mid 50s, a less vast range with the reduction in radiational
cooling.

A strong mid level trough approaches Sunday into Sunday night.
The axis of this trough moves in early Monday. At the surface,
the remnants of Isaias moisture will get entrained into a new
extratropical low pressure area that will be developing in the mid-
Atlantic Sunday. This extratropical low containing the remnants of
Isaias from the mid-Atlantic is forecast to approach Sunday night
with its center moving just south of Long Island early Monday.
Thereafter, the low moves farther east and away from the region
for rest of Monday.

The precipitable waters are expected to increase to near 2 inches
but highest amounts will be to the south of Long Island. NAM
showing in latest model run some precipitable waters up to near
2.1 to 2.2 inches across coastal sections. GFS latest run keeps
entire area below 2 inches through the event.

The low will have a cold core and associated frontal system when it
approaches the local area Sunday into Sunday night. Regarding the
structure, the low pressure`s associated warm front approaches but
stays south of Long Island. The local area will have the low and
its associated occluded front move across just south of Long
Island.

Synoptic lift from positive vorticity advection and increasing
atmospheric moisture will allow for widespread rain to develop
Sunday, especially during the afternoon and continue periodically
through the night. Strongest forcing with trough approaching
appears to be Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, when the
highest likelihood would be for rain to be heavy.

Some models are relatively stronger with the low and have
elevated instability. Some embedded thunderstorms will be
possible Sunday night when the local area has this elevated
instability.

With most of the rain expected to be steady stratiform, spread
out over a long period of time, mainly Sunday morning through
Sunday night, no significant hydrologic impacts are expected.
Most likely impacts would be minor flooding for low lying, poor
drainage and urban areas with very low probability for localized
flash flooding. WPC has maintained a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall for much of the coastal sections of the
region. The forecast total rain overall is between 1 and 1.5
inches with locally higher amounts. Bulk of this is Sunday
afternoon through Sunday evening. This is not significantly
different from previous forecast.

Timeframe of forecast is now within the period covered by CAMs
and the HREF. Some CAMs are indicating by early Monday, higher
rainfall totals around 2 to 3 inches for parts of the region.

For Sunday through Sunday night, winds increase mainly from the
east, becoming increasingly gusty. NAM relatively stronger
compared to GFS. Forecast has winds increasing to near 10 to 15
mph, closer to 20 mph along the coast. Forecast gusts are mostly
near 25 to 35 mph. Possible peak gusts to near 40 mph. This will
be below advisory level thresholds.

Winds and rain trend down by early Monday with mainly dry
conditions returning Monday afternoon into Monday night. Low
pressure will be moving away to the east of the region.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Recent new moon with high astronomical levels with increased
storm surge ahead of low pressure late Sunday into early Monday
will make for some water levels to potentially reach minor
flood benchmarks, especially for early Monday high tide cycles.
This would be for most coastlines with exception of The Battery
and Southeast Connecticut coastlines.

While the storm system moves far enough away later Monday into
Monday night, the weak high pressure moving in will present a
lack of sufficient offshore flow. The northerly winds will not
be that gusty and the circulation pattern changes by Tuesday
with another low approaching from the north and west to give
more onshore flow early Tuesday. So, water levels will be
around the same as the previous day and another round of minor
coastal flooding will be possible. Again, most coastlines will
have this risk for minor coastal flooding for early Tuesday
just like the previous day around the times of high tide.

With the increased onshore flow and fetch, seas increase and
with that the wave heights within the surf zone increase as
well. There is possible high surf along ocean beaches as flow
and swell direction is not much deviating from orthogonal to
coastline and the period of the swell is 9 to 10 seconds. Some of
the nearshore waves could reach near 7 to 10 feet so some
localized ocean beach erosion will be possible. Time period for
this would be late Sunday through Monday.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Less amplified and longer wavelength trough in mid levels
approaches Tuesday and moves across early Wednesday. At the
surface, low pressure approaches from the north and west but the
center of this low remains north of the region through early
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front across early Wednesday.

There will be a brief chance of showers along with a possible
thunderstorm with some forecast elevated instability, mainly
Tuesday night. Not expecting much rainfall with this considering
the lack of atmospheric moisture within the system.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the area to start will pass east tonight.
Low pressure and an associated warm front will approach on Sunday.

VFR through tonight. Rain should arrive Sunday morning with
conditions lowering to MVFR, then possible IFR by afternoon at the
NYC metros.

Winds should become SE 5-10 kt at most terminals this afternoon,
though KJFK/KGON may see a more southerly sea breeze and KLGA the
typical ENE Sound breeze before becoming SE. Winds tonight become
light SE-E and then increase toward morning, with gusts 15-20 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds at KJFK should back to the SE this afternoon after being more
southerly to start.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon and night: Rain with IFR cond. Local LIFR cond
possible. Slight chance of thunder at night. E winds increasing to
15-20G30kt at the NYC metros and 15G20-25kt at the other coastal
terminals, becoming NE 10-15G20kt after midnight.

Monday: Rain with MVFR or lower cond ending early, becoming VFR late
morning into the afternoon. N wind 10-15G20kt in the morning.
MVFR cigs possible late at KGON/KBDR.

Tuesday: MVFR cigs possible in the morning at KGON/KBDR, otherwise
mainly VFR. Chance of showers and night and possibly a tstm.

Wednesday: VFR. W-NW winds 10-15G20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds through tonight with
high pressure in control. Then, approaching low and increase in
pressure gradient between low to southwest and high to the
northeast will make for increasing easterly winds. Winds forecast
to increase Sunday, with gusts reaching SCA levels first for
ocean and then for non-ocean zones in the afternoon. The SCA wind
gusts last through much of Sunday night for all marine zones.
Ocean seas build to near 5 to 7 ft Sunday afternoon and are
forecast to be mainly 7 to 10 ft Sunday night.

Ocean seas start to lower Monday but will likely remain in SCA
range into Monday night. Otherwise, winds will be lowering Monday
with SCA wind gusts mainly just for the ocean. Monday night winds
are below SCA for all waters.

Another possible SCA event late Tuesday night into Wednesday for
parts of the ocean with otherwise mainly sub-SCA for rest of
marine forecast period for the marine forecast region.

Outer ocean 20-60 nm out has potential for gales Sunday into
Sunday night but only mentioned in HWO as frequency of gales only
expected to be occasional. Not enough confidence for a gale watch.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ331-335-338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JM