What's Happening In Newington

044
FXUS61 KOKX 140012
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
812 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories for the non ocean waters cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal temperatures forecast through the rest of
the work week. Near-record highs expected Tuesday through
Thursday with daily chances for showers and possible
thunderstorms.

2) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to near
to slightly below normal Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
We will continue a remarkable warming trend through Friday.
Near-record highs are expected Tuesday through Thursday, with
the warmest day on Wednesday. Even Friday will continue the
well-above average trend in temperatures.

Tue-Thu highs will be in the mid/upper-80s in NE NJ, NYC metro, and
southern sections of the Lower Hudson Valley. A few locations could
even see a few temperature readings touching 90 on Wednesday. These
warm temperatures are a good 25-30 degrees above normal for this
time if year. The highest confidence for reaching 90 degrees will be
across portions of NE NJ. If this were to occur, parts of the area
could see a moderate heat risk. This means, heat could become an
issue for those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without
proper cooling/hydration. As you move further east and along the
coastal locations, temperatures will be significantly cooler with
highs in the 70s.

All this warm weather is aided in large part by anomalous
heights aloft (500mb heights around 575-580 dam) and 850 mb
temps more than 10C above average.

While we have mainly zonal flow aloft, several subtle
shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow will pass to our north
through the week`s end. This will lead to a series of passing
weak lows to our north that bring daily chances for showers this
evening through Thursday.

Chances remain quite low on Tuesday but better on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms appear isolated on Tuesday with most instability
situated too far north, but Wednesday seems to have a better
shot at seeing thunderstorms. The latest guidance shows more
instability on Wednesday and given its our warmest day of the
week, daytime heating with help with this. The main issue we
have for thunderstorms on Wednesday is a lack of strong lift.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region
during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference,
consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers
will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well.
After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold
front passage will return temperatures to near to slightly below
normal Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure well offshore remains through the TAF period.

Mostly VFR forecast expected through the TAF period. However,
there are some exceptions. First with some rain showers moving
across this evening which could make for brief MVFR
visibilities this evening. Second, MVFR/IFR fog will be possible
late tonight into early Tuesday morning for some terminals,
particularly more eastern terminals. Have a TEMPO group just for
KGON and KISP but other terminals could develop fog as well.

Regarding winds, they are SW near 10-15 kt this evening with
some gusts to near 20-25 kt. Winds diminish overnight with
direction becoming more variable. SW winds forecast are near
5-7 kts Tuesday morning. Winds increase Tuesday afternoon out
of the SW to near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20-25 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Fog possible at KJFK early Tuesday morning, 08-12Z, MVFR to IFR
possible.

Timing of gusts could be off by 1-3 hours.

For Tuesday afternoon, peak gusts to near 30 kt possible.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Possible showers/tstms early with
brief MVFR possible. SW wind gusts near 20 kt will be
diminishing.

Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR but with chance of
afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the
NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds
could gusts 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds gusts on the non ocean waters have fallen to below 25
knots early this Monday evening, and the Small Craft Advisory
has been cancelled.

For the ocean waters gusts have diminished early this Monday
evening, mainly to 20 knots or less, and lowered the gusts. Seas
remain elevated therefore the Small Craft Advisory continues.
Conditions subside into tonight, first across the western
ocean and into late tonight east of Fire Island Inlet. By
Tuesday AM sub advisory conditions will prevail across all
waters. Sub- SCA conditions will then remain through Thursday.

Sub advisory conditions are expected on all the waters Thursday
night through Saturday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 88/1960
KBDR: 81/1960
KNYC: 87/1941
KLGA: 86/1941
KJFK: 80/2006
KISP: 78/2024

Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Tue, April 14:
KEWR: 62/2014
KBDR: 54/2023
KNYC: 70/2023
KLGA: 67/2023
KJFK: 55/2023
KISP: 54/2022

Wed, April 15:
KEWR: 60/2023
KBDR: 53/2012
KNYC: 67/1941
KLGA: 64/1941
KJFK: 58/1960
KISP: 56/2023

Thu, April 16:
KEWR: 64/2002
KBDR: 53/2002
KNYC: 69/2002
KLGA: 68/2002
KJFK: 57/2002
KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17:
KEWR: 68/2002
KBDR: 57/2002
KNYC: 74/2002
KLGA: 73/2002
KJFK: 60/2002
KISP: 61/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR/MET/BC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR/MET