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120
FXUS61 KOKX 060552
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
152 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers developing across the region this afternoon into
tonight, especially east of NYC. Showers may linger into the
first half of Sunday, otherwise turning cooler.

2) Dry and seasonably warm next week with a late week cold
frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper low over the Canadian Maritimes will remain nearly
stationary through Sunday, sending a series of shortwaves south
across the Northeast. This combined with wraparound moisture
from offshore low pressure will result in showers increasing in
coverage this afternoon into this evening. Initially, the best
chance will be across eastern CT and eastern LI before tracking
south and west tonight. The coverage is expected to decrease as
the showers work south and west tonight. Isolated to scattered
coverage could get as far west as NYC, NE NJ, and the Lower
Hudson Valley. Showers will generally be brief with rainfall
amounts under a tenth of an inch, but a few pockets of heavier
rain are possible. A strong shortwave approaching late tonight
could enhance activity during the morning hours Sunday.

Cloud cover will vary across the region from partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Lows tonight will be in the 50s to around 60 most
locations, but warmer in the low to mid 60s for the NYC metro.
High Sunday will not get out of the 70s, about 5 degrees below
normal.

High pressure will then begin to better establish itself Sunday
night into Monday as the upper trough moves out into the
western Atlantic. Heights gradually build through midweek with
dry conditions and warmer temperatures. The warmest day looks to
be Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs should
get back into the 80s for most locations.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold frontal passage late Thursday will be followed by high
pressure and cooler air to end the week. Highs will be in the
70s with lows in the 50s to around 60. The trend has been more
progressive and drier with the frontal system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds in from the NW through tonight.

Mainly VFR. Tempo MVFR in/near showers this morning. Can`t rule
out an afternoon shower, but chances aren`t high enough to
include in TAFs.

Winds mostly NE under 10kt however E to SE at times for some of
the coastal terminals, especially in the afternoon. Light and
variable winds tonight.

       NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Tempo shra/MVFR conds could be off by a couple of hours, and
possibly may not occur at at all.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night-Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt and showers possible
with MVFR night.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts around 20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Tuesday.

Thereafter, SW winds increase ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Wind gusts on the coastal waters may begin to exceed SCA
criteria (25 kt) Wednesday afternoon, which could linger through
Thursday. Gale conditions are possible during this time, particularly
on the ocean. Ocean seas likely build to 5-9 ft. Winds and seas
will gradually subside on Thursday.

Rip Currents:

A lack of significant wind or swell will lead to a low rip current
risk through at least Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DW