What's Happening In Newington

477
FXUS61 KOKX 251457
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
957 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snow continues across Long Island and SE CT through 11am with
impacts continuing for the AM commute.

2) Another light snowfall is possible late Thursday and Thursday
night as low pressure passes to the south.

3) Potential for multiple waves of low pressure to bring
precipitation to the area late in the weekend through the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Impressive snowfall rates (~1 inch per hour) this morning in a
snow band associated with a clipper low moving across the Great
Lakes. The snow band developed ahead of a warm front that moves
across the area this morning. Temperatures rebounded quickly
ahead of the front, but heavy snowfall rates were able to
overcome surface temperatures in the mid 30s across Long Island
along with a modest S-SW flow.

Reports of 1-2 inches are coming in with highest amounts across
southern CT. Some localized 3 inch amounts are possible across
CT where temperatures remain colder.

The snow has tapered off along and west of the Hudson River and
will continue moving east across eastern Long Island and SE
Connecticut through 11am.

Conditions largely dry out into the afternoon with some
clearing. Temperatures should rebound into the upper 30s
allowing for melting of the new snow.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Continuing to monitor the potential for another wave of low
pressure skirting the region, though chances of direct impacts
are lowering.

Weak wave of low pressure looks to spin up along a cold front
that drops south of the region into Thursday. The wave slides
off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday evening, potentially
grazing the local area as it tracks offshore.

Guidance has largely trended flatter and further south with
the system, and it`s very possible the local area remains
entirely dry. NBM V5 90th percentile yields a light snowfall (1
to 3 inches), which is likely the reasonable worst case. This
forecast update keeps chance PoPs (25-30 percent) along the
coast, dropping to slight chance going north. Either way, the
system is weak and very progressive, quickly scooting well out
to sea by Friday morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A cold front will move through the area Saturday night into
Sunday morning with an arctic airmass building in behind it. 00z
guidance has started to hint at more QPF along the leading edge
of the arctic airmass. Have introduced slight chance PoPs north
and west of NYC due to the latest NBM lagging on this. It is
cold enough for this precipitation to be snow, but will likely
be in the form of showers or potentially squall activity.
Overall QPF appears to be light and this would likely not result
in any significant accumulation.

The next chance of precipitation comes Monday into Monday night.
High pressure will be over the area with a wave of low pressure
trying to pass underneath. This will really come down to how much
the high can suppress or weaken the wave. The GFS and GEFS remain the
most aggressive/farthest north, with the Canadian, ECMWF and their
ensembles passing farther south with a weaker wave and just grazing
us if at all. All solutions would be cold enough for snow. It is
worth noting that the GFS and GEFS have come a bit farther south
with the 00z run compared to the 18z run. Latest GEFS mean QPF has
about 0.60 inches of liquid across the area. The latest NBM, given
the drier guidance blended in, has a 40% chance of seeing 0.25
inches of liquid.

Another wave of low pressure then looks to move near the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. With high pressure leaving the area
and this wave likely moving farther north, this would indicate more
of a front end snow changing over over to rain. However, being over
a week out, there is more uncertainty with the exact evolution of
this system.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A clipper system moves through today, dragging a cold front
through tonight.

Snow and IFR exiting to the E thru 16-17Z. KGON will be the last
to hold onto the SN. SCT-BKN low clouds for the rest of the
day, resulting in the potential for periods of MVFR. VFR then
tonight and Thursday morning.

SW/S winds around 10-15kt this morning. Occasional gusts to
around 25 kt possible, mainly at coastal terminals through the
afternoon. SW winds diminish late afternoon, becoming W during
this evening, and NW late at night.

Additional snow accumulations up to 2 inches possible ISP and
GON.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Could be VFR for much of the day but confidence too low attm
due to expected redevelopment of low clouds.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Most of Thursday: VFR

Late Thursday aftn/Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR possible with light snow.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Slight chance of snow showers to bring brief MVFR/IFR.
Mainly north and west of NYC.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean, LI back
bays, and eastern LI Sound from 6am this morning through 6pm
this evening for SW gusts around 25 kt.

Wind gusts diminish this evening, but hazardous seas over 5 ft
continue on the ocean through at least Thursday morning, and
likely into Thursday afternoon E of Fire Island Inlet.

A cold frontal passage along with building high pressure late in
the weekend and early next week may bring the next chance of
SCA conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ332-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR/DS/JT
AVIATION...JMC/JT
MARINE...DR