What's Happening In Newington

053
FXUS61 KOKX 090543
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
143 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisory issued for tonight for portions of western Long
Island and NE NJ.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Areas of frost are expected tonight into Thursday morning.

2. Fire weather concerns increase somewhat over the next week,
mainly due to low daytime RH and lack of wetting rainfall.

3. Temperatures closer to normal this weekend will experience
significant warmup Mon-Wed next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface high pressure remains off the New England coast through
the overnight and into Thursday, with light return flow.

Slight moderation of the seasonably cool air mass in place will
prevent a widespread freeze like last night, but areas away
from the coast fall back into at least the upper 20s, with mid
to upper 30s expected in NYC. Clear skies and increasing shallow
moisture in the low levels with the weak onshore flow should
allow areas of frost development in most areas; more patchy in
the urban NYC metro. Hoisted a Frost Advisory for western Long
Island and parts of NE NJ where the growing season has already
begun.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure remains in control locally the next few days as
the center drifts further off to the north and east. Dry
conditions persist Thursday, and RH values likely fall under 30
percent in the afternoon away from the immediate coast with weak
S flow. While speeds are expected to remain light, the low
humidity values could support fire spread should ignition occur.
In collaboration with neighbors and partners, opted for no
headlines at this point as winds are not expected to approach
RFW criteria.

Thereafter, increasing moisture ahead of a fropa should
mitigate much concern on Friday, with a chance for a light
rainfall in the evening, especially north, as the boundary moves
through.

After cold fropa on Sat, daytime RH lowers to 25-35% with NW
winds gusting to 15-20 mph, mainly inland. Min RH on Sunday
should be 30- 40% but with lighter S winds.

On Mon, RH looks more marginal at 40-50% with SW winds gusting
to 20 mph. Then for Tue/Wed, min RH should be 30-40% with SW
winds gusting to 15-20 mph, but the RH forecast on those days is
more uncertain and will be dependent on high temperatures.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Good model agreement continues on broad troughing over central
Canada and then nrn Plains moving ewd across ern Canada and the
Northeast Fri into Sat, which should send a cold front through
Sat morning. Prior to fropa, temps should already have begun a
warming trend, with highs 65-70 from NYC north/west (5-10
degrees above normal), and mid 50s to lower 60s for Long Island
and most of S CT (near normal). Air mass behind the front will
be only slightly cooler than that for the weekend as strong
Canadian high pressure builds across, with highs mostly from the
mid 50s to mid 60s, still a few degrees above normal from NYC
north/west.

A more appreciable warming trend should take place early next
week as a return flow develops on the back side of the high as
it departs out into the Atlantic, and as a warm front passes to
the N. Highs on Mon should reach the mid/upper 70s from NYC
north/west and the 60s east of there. Even warmer temps expected
on Tue, upper 70s/lower 80s from NYC north/west and 60 to lower
70s east. These numbers are 15-20 degrees above normal
north/west and about 5-10 degrees above normal east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore of the northeast coast through
Thursday evening.

Generally VFR, with low chance of MVFR stratus for this morning
push (09-13z) for NYC/NJ and coastal terminals, but likely
remaining few to scattered. Increasing potential for MVFR/IFR
cigs developing after 00-04z this evening for all but KSWF.
Patchy fog possible, with increasing likelihood if stratus does
not form.

Light S to light and variable winds early this morning, becoming
SE less than 10 kt this morning, and then increasing to around
10-12 kt during the early to mid afternoon. Gusts to 18 kt
possible away from south coastal terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There is a low chance of MVFR stratus for this morning push
(09-13z), but likely remaining few to scattered.

SE winds 10-12kt with occasional gusts to 18kt for aft/early
eve push.

Increasing potential for MVFR-IFR cigs developing after 00-04z.
MVFR-IFR cigs likely for Fri AM push. Patchy fog possible.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Tonight: MVFR-IFR stratus likely for NYC/NJ metro and
coastal terminals, possible for KSWF. Patchy fog possible.

Friday: MVFR to IFR stratus likely for morning push, becoming
VFR by mid-morning.

Friday Night: Potential for MVFR or lower in rain showers.
Highest chances north and west of NYC terminals.

Saturday: VFR. NW gust 20 to 25 kt possible.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR. SW gusts 30 to 35 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions remain below SCA criteria with nearby high pressure
through at least Friday morning. Increasing SW flow ahead of a
cold fropa Friday afternoon should build ocean seas above 5 ft,
and wind gusts may approach or exceed 25 kt on the coastal
waters during this period, before relaxing Friday night.

Hazardous ocean seas of 5-6 ft (mainly SE swell) should persist
into daytime Sat, then settle down from Sat night into Sunday
night. Then after a warm frontal passage on Mon, S-SW winds
increase to 20-25 kt on the ocean waters, with seas building to
5-7 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ177-179.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/DR
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...Goodman/DR