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492
FXUS61 KOKX 271326
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
926 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A nor`easter will continue to produce strong winds across
the region this morning.

2) Bands of moderate to locally heavy rain persist through the
rest of the weekend. Widespread minor urban, poor drainage, and
small stream flooding likely, with only isolated instances of
flash flooding possible.

3) Coastal flooding impacts are expected during times of high
tide through Monday. Moderate to locally major inundation
possible this morning.

4) High surf and dangerous rip current risk continue today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low center was S of Long Island and E of the NJ coast as of 08Z
and should continue moving westward toward NJ today while
weakening, then stall near the NJ coast tonight, and drift
slowly E on Mon, passing S of Long Island. With the parent upper
low passing over the area expect bands of moderate to locally
heavy rain and embedded tstms to still be possible.

Not seeing winds 58+ mph anywhere in the CWA though they might
still be possible in immediate coastal areas with N-NE exposure.
High wind warning thus remains in effect for Long Island and
Southern CT with no changes attm. Advisory continues elsewhere
through this morning for potential impacts from wind gusts 40-45
mph (just below official criteria) with trees still leafed out
and wet ground.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Greatest potential for bands of moderate to heavy showers will
be this afternoon and evening, with additional rainfall of 1-2
inches (locally higher across CT/Long Island) still possible.
Latest HREF prob of an inch of rain in 3 hours as high as 50-60%
across Long Island and the NYC metro area late today into this
evening, with a slight (20%) chance of 2 inches in 3 hours
across central Suffolk County late today. Still opted not to
issue a flood watch, as flooding unlikely to be considerable
and more likely in the minor nuisance category.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The current forecast is based on a blend of the previous
forecast the the 00Z NYHOPS 50th percentile, ETSS/PETSS 50th
percentile, and STOFS guidance. Surge models have over-performed
so did not consider the higher percentiles of probabilistic
guidance despite winds veering more NE this morning.

Coastal flood warnings will be allowed to continue for one more
tide cycle as locally major flooding may still be possible
along the back bays of S Nassau and SW Suffolk counties, with
moderate flooding also expected in spots along Peconic Bays, the
western Sound, and lower NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, minor to
locally moderate flooding in tidally impacted areas of NE NJ,
and minor flooding along the Hudson River in the lower Hudson
Valley.

As winds diminish the coastal flood threat will lessen, with
widespread minor flooding expected during the high tide cycles
tonight and Mon morning. Some spotty minor flooding may last
into Tue and Wed with the morning high tide cycles on those
days.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
High risk of rip currents and high surf today along ocean
shorelines, with surf heights up to 8-11 feet possible.
Additional beach erosion likely with the high tide cycle this
morning.

This will be the last issuance of routine surf zone products and
high surf advisories for the 2026 season.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure just south of the terminals today, bringing strong
winds today and periods of rain through Monday morning.

Mainly MVFR or lower thru the TAF period. Pockets of IFR this
morning, especially for eastern coastal terminals. May improve
slightly to MVFR during the day before prevailing IFR pushes in
this evening for most terminals. Periods of rain of varying
intensity throughout the day.

N-NE winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30-45 kt expected through early
morning. A few isolated gusts up to 50 kt possible. Winds veer
to the E or ENE by early afternoon and begin to lighten into
the evening, though gusts 20-30kt remain overnight into Monday
morning as the wind shift back to the N/NNE.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Cigs could bounce between MVFR and IFR at times this morning
with any heavier rain bringing locally IFR visibilities.

Occasional gusts upwards of 50 kt possible through about 15Z.

Low chance of an isolated embedded TSTM, especially 21-03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: MVFR or lower. Winds generally below 20kt with VRB
direction through the day.

Tuesday: Becoming VFR with light winds.

Wednesday: VFR with SW flow.

Thursday: VFR with W flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Letting storm warnings ride for most of the ocean waters til
12Z. Replacing storm warning with gale for Sandy Hook-Fire
Island Inlet out 20 nm as winds at 44065 have been quite a bit
short. Converting any storm warnings on the non ocean waters to
gale warnings as well and running through 6 PM today for
simplicity`s sake even though gusts may come down below gale
force by early afternoon.

SCA cond expected on all waters late this afternoon and tonight,
then hazardous ocean seas may linger E of Fire Island Inlet from
Mon into Mon night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for CTZ005>007-009-010.
     High Wind Warning until noon EDT today for CTZ008-011-012.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009-
     010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ011-
     012.
NY...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NYZ067>075-176-178.
     High Wind Warning until noon EDT today for NYZ078>081-177-179.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
     104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...Goodman