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308
FXUS61 KOKX 141551
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1151 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added iso thunder and chance showers for portions of NE NJ and
NYC metro until early afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few showers/isolated thunder possible until early afternoon
for NE NJ, NYC metro. Otherwise, unseasonably warm and humid
conditions today will end with a cold frontal passage this
evening, bringing lower humidity and more seasonable conditions
to end the week.

2) Showers Thursday night into Friday, with a slight chance of
a thunderstorm or two Friday afternoon and early in the evening.
No impacts are anticipated with regard to rainfall.

3) Gusty NW winds are possible behind a cold front Friday night
into Saturday morning, ushering in the coolest air mass of the
season thus far this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Lift associated with a jet streak to the north and a weak
mid level shortwave ahead of a cold front have generated showers
and isolated thunderstorms across NE PA. Have raised PoPs
across NE NJ, NYC metro to chance and introduced a 20 PoP into
the Lower Hudson Valley. SPC mesoanalysis indicating some
marginal MUCAPE around 250 J/kg. This activity, if it makes it
to the coast, will be fast moving, with limited impacts other
than a brief downpour and a lightning strike or two.

Look for warm and humid conditions today, with a SW flow
becoming W as a cold front approaches. Highs today will range
primarily in the mid 70s right along the immediate coast, to
the upper 70s/lower 80s elsewhere. The cold front swings through
from W to E early this early evening. Behind the front will
come noticeably less humid and cooler air. This will return
temperatures closer to normal for this time of year into
Thursday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The next frontal system will approach Thursday night into
Friday morning. This will bring the next chance of any
meaningful rain late Thursday night into the day Friday. The
first batch of rain should be primarily light and will be
associated with a warm front. The warm front is progged to
lifting further north towards the afternoon, thus a break in the
rain is expected for a few hours. A cold front then is expected
to follow. The cold front is likely to swing through later in
the day or by early evening. This may bring with it some heavier
showers along with the slight chance of a few thunderstorms.
The consensus on forecasted rainfall amounts looks to be on the
order of a half inch. Locally higher amounts of up to one inch
cannot be completely ruled out if any convective activity can
outperform. The winds will increase right ahead and along the
cold front late in the day out of the west, then quickly shift
NW for the evening bringing any rain quickly to an end.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
As mixing increases in the column immediately behind the cold
front look for strong, gusty winds immediately behind the front
which may last right into Saturday morning. The longevity of any
stronger gusts remains uncertain at this time, with gusts to
around 40-45 mph or thereabouts a strong possibility. Subsequent
updates may need to determine if any wind headlines will be
necessary. Also, behind the front the coolest weather of the
fall is likely for the first half of the weekend. Some
temperature moderation is likely towards later in the day on
Sunday with daytime temperatures recovering close to 60 with
lighter winds.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR as a cold front approaches and then moves through this evening.

Added a brief showers for some of the terminals through 19Z.

WSW flow less than 10 kt become W by late morning increase to
around or just over 10 kt. Winds shift NW-N tonight 10 kt or
less after fropa this evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A light shower may occur late this afternoon into early this
evening with pre-frontal trough and fropa but should not impact
flight category.

Low probability for TSRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR. NE winds G15-20kt possible in the morning.

Thursday night: Showers move in late with MVFR or lower cond.

Friday: Showers. IFR cond likely, improving to MVFR in the afternoon
from the NYC metros north/west. SW winds G20-25kt.

Friday night: Showers and possibly a tstm in the evening with
mainly MVFR cond, then VFR. Cold fropa followed by W-NW winds
G25-35kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-35 kt.

Saturday night: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt early.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Lingering SCA seas east of Moriches Inlet continue through
midday. A period of marginal SCA conditions may also develop
across portions of the waters tonight behind a cold front on a
NW flow, at this time it is expected that most zones will remain
below thresholds.

The pressure gradient relaxes some into Thursday afternoon as
high pressure builds with sub advisory conditions prevailing.
However, conditions ramp up during Friday morning with SCA
conditions quickly developing in S flow, especially for the
afternoon. The winds become SW just ahead of a cold front later
in the day Friday, then immediately behind the cold front the
flow goes NW and should result in gales developing across all
waters Friday night into the first half of Saturday. By Saturday
afternoon and evening gales should give way to SCA cond.

Sub advisory conditions should return by Sunday with winds
diminishing.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

October 14:
KEWR: 85/1975
KBDR: 80/1990
KNYC: 84/1920
KLGA: 82/1975
KJFK: 82/1990
KISP: 81/1990

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

October 14:
KEWR: 67/1990
KBDR: 64/1990
KNYC: 68/1990
KLGA: 70/1990
KJFK: 67/1990
KISP: 66/1990

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE/DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE/DS