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242
FXUS61 KOKX 062031
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Periods of rain continue into tonight. Locally heavy
downpours could lead to nuisance type flooding for far eastern
zones.

2) Drier and cooler air returns during the weekend and lasts
well into next week. No impacts anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Impacts this afternoon into this evening are anticipated to be
limited to minor nuisance flooding and likely limited to eastern
Long Island and SE CT.

PWATs of around 1.5 inches right ahead of a slowly moving cold front
will continue over the eastern half of the forecast area through the
rest of the day, and lower as the front shifts east of the the area
during this evening. At the same time, CAPE, mainly elevated, will
continue the threat of convective forcing and thunder well east
of the city with no severe weather impacts expected. Another
source of lift will be more on the synoptic scale as the right
entrance region of a upper jet streak approaches the region
shifts through tonight. The combination of all of these elements
will produce periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. The cold
front is expected to be east of Montauk by around midnight with
the flooding threat greatly reduced thereafter. Additional
shower activity after midnight should be limited to east of the
city.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Closed 500mb low approaches from the west and passes through
Saturday night. Showers possible for mainly the northernmost zones
with instability due to the cyclonic flow aloft. No impacts with any
showers. Relatively weak high pressure then dominates the weather
pattern well into next week with only maybe a couple of dry cold
front/trough passages. High temperatures generally within 5 degrees
of normal Sunday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak front slowly moves east of the area through tonight.
Associated low pressure will then move across New England on
Saturday.

Periods of rain are expected through tonight, especially east of
the NYC terminals. The rain should taper off at NYC terminals
this evening, but could persist into the early Saturday morning
hours at KGON. Improving conditions are expected for NYC
terminals on NW with VFR likely to prevail. Any lowering to MVFR
will be brief. IFR-MVFR should continue for Long Island and
southeast CT terminals for much of tonight, although there is a
chance at a quicker improvement to VFR for KBDR and KISP,
especially if the front is a bit quicker to move east. VFR is
expected to prevail on Saturday.

Mainly light NW flow is expected into the evening for terminals
from NYC on NW. Winds will be a bit more variable further east
and could prevail out of the SE until the frontal passage.
Winds will likely become light and/or variable tonight at most
terminals. Winds will become W-NW on Saturday and increase to
10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt Saturday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR possible through 00z.

Some variability in wind direction is possible this evening, but
speeds should remain below 10 kt.

Onset time of gusts on Saturday may be off by 1-3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Afternoon-Night: Showers possible with MVFR, mainly in
the afternoon and evening. WNW-NW winds G20-25kt.

Sunday and Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated seas on the ocean will continue into tonight, but will be
subsiding. A period of sub-sca conds then follows late tonight
through Saturday morning before 25kt+ gusts develop in the afternoon
on the ocean, then on the other waters Saturday night. After
collaboration with WFO BOX, have decided to not stretch the SCA on
the eastern ocean waters to cover the 12 hour or so periods of sub-
advisory conditions, and allow for the overnight shift to issue SCAs
as appropriate (including for the non-ocean waters), figuring ocean
seas will be below 5 ft by 06z tonight. SCA will probably need to be
extended into Sunday and Monday as the pressure gradient
strengthens, producing a gusty westerly flow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 6:
KEWR: 66/2022
KBDR: 62/2024
KNYC: 66/2022
KLGA: 65/2024
KJFK: 64/2022
KISP: 65/2022


Record Precipitation:

November 6:
KEWR: 2.12/1911
KBDR: 0.54/2018
KNYC: 1.47/1911
KLGA: 0.96/1963
KJFK: 1.42/1963
KISP: 0.71/1963

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC