What's Happening In Newington

538
FXUS61 KOKX 200626
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
226 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made with this forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGE...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday into Wednesday.
Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe with potential
impacts. Flash flooding is somewhat less of a concern, but
primarily minor impacts are anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A primary low pressure center tracks east through SE Canada Tuesday
into Wednesday. A weak secondary low along a warm front shifts
through the forecast area during the day on Tuesday with a trailing
cold front moving through during Wednesday. Showers become likely
late Tuesday morning into afternoon and remain likely during Tuesday
night. Chances drop off west to east during the day Wednesday.

Severe weather will be possible with sufficient wind and speed shear
and at least modest CAPE. Still some uncertainty regarding how
widespread severe thunderstorms could be due to timing of the warm
front passage and how much clearing of the sky occurs with
destabilization in the afternoon after the front moves through. SPC
has eastern LI and SE CT under a marginal risk for severe weather
Tuesday into Tuesday night with a slight risk elsewhere. Most likely
impact as usual would be damaging wind gusts, but due to the veering
wind profile, large hail cannot be ruled out for most of the area,
and a low chance of a tornado exists in the vicinity of the
advancing warm front. As for Wednesday, both CAPE and shear should
be lower for the most part, but strong wind gusts could still be
possible.

PWATs will be around 2 inches and rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour will be possible, but mitigating factors for flash flooding
will be the speed of the flow aloft (quicker moving cells), and to a
lesser degree, the way the flow aloft aligns with the surface fronts
(working against training and back building of cells). Any flooding
impacts are more likely limited to minor nuisance/poor drainage
flooding. With that said, WPC continues with a slight risk of flash
flooding for the entire area, so trends still need to be monitored.
If there are impacts, chances are that they would occur somewhere in
the late morning through evening hours of Tuesday. Current rainfall
forecast Tuesday through Wednesday has most of the area at 1 to 2
inches, but locally 2 1/2 to 3 inches are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the terminals will push offshore today.

VFR.

Light and variable this morning. Wind then shifts to the S this
afternoon around or under 10kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday night: VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms.

Thursday and Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions are expected on Tuesday, primarily on the ocean
waters, as southerly winds increase and help build seas up to around
5 ft along with gusts to 25-30kt. Seas remain elevated on the ocean
through at least Wednesday night with SCA conditions remaining
likely. After collaboration with the surrounding offices, have
decided to go with a SCA on the ocean for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
South Shore Bays and eastern LI Sound may need to be added to the
SCA, but not enough confidence at this time to do so. Sub-SCA conds
on all of the ocean zones might not occur until some point on
Thursday as seas continue to subside.

Rip Currents:

The rip current risk for the ocean beaches is low today. A moderate
risk for all beaches is expected on Tuesday, and in some spots,
could climb to a high risk late in the day.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC