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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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383 FXUS61 KOKX 280353 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1153 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Widespread marine dense fog has ended and the Marine Dense Fog Advisories has been cancelled. Areas of dense fog from the waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm continue however. Therefore, a Marine Weather Statement was issued until 2 am to cover this situation. Conditions should improve thereafter as a cold front moves through. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler for the end of the week with multiple disturbances dropping south across the Northeast. 2) There will be chances for showers during the first half of next week. 3) A moderate rip current risk continues Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A series of upper level disturbances dropping SE across ern Canada will carve out an upper trough across the Northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. The strongest of these will move across New England and drive a stronger cold front through Fri night. So after a warmer Thu/Fri with temps running a few degrees above normal, Sat will be noticeably cooler and almost brisk, with a NW wind gusting to 25-30 mph. Temps daytime Sat per MOS may not make it out of the 60s, blending that with warmer NBM yields temps at least reaching the lower 70s across the NYC metro area and Long Island. Temps should recover somewhat on Sunday with highs 70-75 which is actually close to normal. .KEY MESSAGE 2... An upr lvl low may stall over the Northeast and produce chances for shwrs and isold tstms Mon-Wed. Some of the modeling however suggests a more transitory pattern, producing lesser chances duration-wise. The blended approach was followed to account for the uncertainty this far out. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A moderate rip current risk continues Thursday into Friday with a residual 2-ft 7 to 8 sec SE swell lingering. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front moves southeast and pushes away overnight. High pressure follows and gradually builds in from the northwest through remainder of the TAF period. VFR prevails. Winds NW overnight mainly at 5 to 10 kt. NW winds increase to 10- 15kt with G20-25 kt on Thursday. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low chance of a shower late afternoon / evening Thursday, otherwise no amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday night: Chance of an early evening shower at KGON, otherwise VFR. NW winds gradually diminish in the evening and settle in at 5- 10kt late. Friday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. Friday Night-Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers at night into early Saturday morning, mainly at KGON/KISP/KBDR. NW-N winds G20-25kt Saturday. Sunday: VFR. Monday: Chance of MVFR in showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Widespread marine dense fog has ended and the Marine Dense Fog Advisories have been cancelled. Areas of dense fog from the waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm continue however. Therefore, a Marine Weather Statement was issued until 2 am to cover this situation. Conditions should improve thereafter as a cold front moves through. There is a chance for marginal SCA conditions on the ocean from late Fri night into early Sat afternoon, with seas up to 5 ft and wind gusts close to 25 kt in a W flow becoming NW. Best chance looks to be E of Fire Island Inlet. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMC/Goodman AVIATION...JE MARINE...JMC/Goodman |
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