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530
FXUS61 KOKX 302344
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
744 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There`s an elevated risk of fire spread for the Lower Hudson
Valley and southern Connecticut into the early evening.

2) Frost-Freeze conditions likely outside of NYC/NJ metro Saturday
Night into Sunday AM. Otherwise, dry and increasingly mild
conditions for early to mid next week.

3) The Next chance of a wetting rain late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

The combination of sufficiently dry fuels, gusty NW winds 25 to 35
mph and relatively low RH values in wake of morning cold frontal
passage will continue an elevated risk of fire spread, particularly
for Lower Hudson valley and southern CT into early this
evening.

In collaboration with state partners and neighboring forecast
offices, a Special Weather Statement for southern Connecticut
and the Lower Hudson Valley remains to highlight this threat
thru 6 PM today.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

The driest stretch of the year so far persists for the next several
days in response to confluent NW upper flow this weekend, giving way
to east coast upper ridging thru midweek. At the surface, modified
Canadian high pressure builds overhead through this weekend, and
then gradually offshore through midweek.

CAA on gusty NW winds (25-35 mph) into the first half of tonight,
subsiding through Saturday morning. Sunny, dry and seasonably chilly
airmass for this weekend. Saturday will be slightly cooler than
Sunday, with highs generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Widespread frost conditions likely, scattered freeze conditions
possible, across eastern LI, southern CT and southern Westchester
county Saturday night/early Sunday under good radiational cooling
conditions. The one caveat will be the northeastward
progression of a cirrus deck associated with shearing central US
shortwave, and to a lesser extent upper jet streak aloft and a
weak northern stream shortwave moving through northern New
England. Although frost-freeze conditions are expected across
areas to the north of this, the frost-freeze program has
already ended for these interior areas. The frost-freeze
program will end for Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Southern
Westchester, Coastal Connecticut, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex,
Eastern Union the morning of Sunday November 1.

Gradually moderating conditions for early next week as heights rise
aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return SW flow.
High temps incrementally rising through the 60s each day, with
overnight lows rising from in the 30s and 40s Sunday morning to
40s and 50s by Wednesday morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
General NWP/AI model agreement in NW PAC troughing slowly moving
southeastward across the CONUS through the early-mid next week,
approaching the middle eastern US late week. Considerable spread on
the particulars of the trough as it moves towards the east coast
late week (whether it remains influenced by the northern stream
and approaches as a closed low towards the NE/Mid Atlantic US
East coast or detaches from northern stream and drifts across
the SE US). At least a low potential for a frontal system or low
pressure system to affect the area late in the week with a
wetting rainfall, but inherently low predictability on details
this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west through the period.

VFR.

NW winds with speeds 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25 kt through this
evening. Gusts subside by 01-05Z, depending on terminal and
flow remains NW on Saturday with speeds around 10 kt or less.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gust cessation could be an hour or two off.

Occasional gusts to 20 kt possible for a period after 03Z Sat.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday Night: VFR. NW winds around less than 10 kt.

Sunday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NW flow gusts around 30 kt for all waters into first half of
tonight. Winds will gradually subsides late tonight into
Saturday as high pressure build in for the weekend.

Sub-SCA conditions then expected on all waters Saturday through
Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...NV