What's Happening In Newington

404
FXUS61 KOKX 020934
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
534 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extreme Heat Warning extended through Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity continues through Independence
Day.

This level of heat can be deadly for those without adequate
cooling and hydration, especially with the little overnight
relief expected. Impacts to transportation infrastructure and
electrical and water systems are possible.

2) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day
through Sunday. Highest chances are over the weekend. Any
storm has the potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and localized flash flooding.

3) There is a high risk of rip currents today at all local ocean
beaches (See Marine Section).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Dangerously hot conditions persist for the next several days.

A 594dm ridge centered over the Eastern US remains in place
through Friday with surface high pressure anchored just
offshore. The peak of the heat occurs for most over the next
two days and this afternoon could be one of the hottest in
recent memory for some areas. H850 temps look to flirt with 25C;
about as high as recorded locally. Air temperatures in the low
to mid 100s across the urban NE NJ corridor, around 100 in the
NYC metro and LoHud Valley, and mid to upper 90s across S CT and
Long Island (away from the immediate coast). Daily record highs
are possible, see Climate Section below. A richly moist air mass
in place with dew points into the 60s and 70s will drive heat
indices over 105F, and as high as 115F, the next several days.
Low temperatures only falling back into the 70s and 80s will
exacerbate the threat posed, offering little relief overnight.

This level of heat can be deadly for those without adequate
cooling and hydration. Impacts to transportation (rail, bridge,
road/tarmac) infrastructure and electrical (high demand
electrical) and water systems (open hydrants reducing water
pressure) have been noted with previous heat events of this
severity and duration. On average, heat kills more people than
any other weather-related hazard.

With this in mind, opted to extend the Extreme Heat Warning
through Independence Day for all zones. The ridge begins to
break down some by Saturday, and even further by Sunday,
eventually helping to return temperatures closer to normal for
early July, though this appears to be gradual. So while max
apparent Ts may be more marginal in parts of the interior, and
some uncertainty remains for potential convective debris,
widespread heat indices between 100F and 105F, along with the
largest outdoor holiday of the year warrants extension to
highlight that conditions will remain dangerous on Saturday.
The cumulative stress on the body after several days of extreme
heat will also contribute to a greater threat of heat related
injury despite heat indices potentially a few degrees lower in
some areas.

Temperatures slide down further on Sunday as heights continue to
fall and mid level temps drop, but could still flirt with
advisory criteria in some spots. Southeasterly flow should
bring all areas down toward climo normals by Monday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and
evening through Sunday, with highest chances over the weekend.

Today offers the best likelihood of remaining dry. While a
widely isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible later this
afternoon into the early evening, mainly across the north,
convection likely struggles to initiate with ridging continuing
to build and lack of trigger. Chances tick up Friday afternoon
with a weak surface boundary nearby. SPC outlines a slight
(2/5) risk for severe weather on Friday for the western half of
the forecast area, including NYC, and a marginal (1/5) risk
elsewhere. Similar risk continues on Saturday, though coverage
may be more enhanced with a cold front approaching and a bit
stronger forcing for ascent aloft as well.

The primary threat is damaging winds, but can`t rule out large
hail or even localized to isolated instances of flash flooding
with slower storm motion and clustering. This is particularly
true should this occur over the more susceptible urban metros.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic.

Light mainly SW flow should become W-NW this morning, then SW-S
this afternoon, with some gusts close to 20 kt. Winds diminish
this evening and then become light WNW after midnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Fog bank along the NJ extending to just inside the KJFK vicinity
airspace should have no impact within 5SM of the terminal, and
should dissipate after sunrise. An occasional gust 20-25kt
also possible at KJFK from about 21Z-01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Friday: Mostly VFR. W winds G15-20 kt in the afternoon. An
isolated late day or evening tstm with strong winds possible.

Saturday: W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. Chance of
afternoon/evening tstms with strong winds possible.

Sunday: Chance of afternoon showers/tstms. MVFR or lower
cond possible.

Sunday night and Monday: Showers/tstms likely. MVFR or lower
cond at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this morning for
coastal ocean waters out to 20 nm with seas around 5 ft. Seas
should lower closer to 4 ft by afternoon. SW winds today could
occasionally gust toward 20 or 25 kt, but coverage and frequency
appears too low to warrant another SCA at this time.

Winds and seas are then largely expected to remain below SCA
levels into early next week.

Rip Currents...

There is a high risk of rip currents at all local ocean beaches
today.

SW flow of 15 to 20 kt and 4-5 ft 6s period swells drive this
risk. Lighter winds and lower swells drop the risk to moderate
for Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KEWR: 103/1901
KBDR: 100/1966
KNYC: 100/1966
KLGA: 101/1966
KJFK: 101/1966
KISP: 99/1966

July 3:
KEWR: 105/1966
KBDR: 99/1966
KNYC: 103/1966
KLGA: 107/1966
KJFK: 104/1966
KISP: 104/1966

July 4:
KEWR: 105/1949
KBDR: 98/1949
KNYC: 102/1949
KLGA: 100/1949
KJFK: 101/2010
KISP: 97/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 2:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 82/1901
KLGA: 78/2002
KJFK: 74/2018
KISP: 74/2014

July 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018

July 4:
KEWR: 81/2002
KBDR: 80/2002
KNYC: 81/2002
KLGA: 82/1999
KJFK: 80/2002
KISP: 76/2002

July 5:
KEWR: 81/1999
KBDR: 74/2018
KNYC: 82/1999
KLGA: 86/1999
KJFK: 80/1999
KISP: 78/1999

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Saturday for CTZ005>012.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ009>012.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DR