What's Happening In Newington

806
FXUS61 KOKX 050022
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
822 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Guidance has been trending further west for showers and storms
during the daytime tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Potential for scattered afternoon/early evening heavy
downpour and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday into the
weekend.

2. Very warm and very humid for Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Potential for scattered afternoon/early evening heavy downpour
and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday into the weekend.

Scattered afternoon shower/thunderstorm threat returns on Wed
and continues through the weekend as region lies on NW edge of
Bermuda ridging. This will also bring a very warm and very humid
air mass into the region Thu thru the weekend with deep SW flow
and H8 temps rising to 18-20C.

Forcing will be from weak convectively enhanced vort maximum
rounding the upper ridge Wed and Thu, and then approaching weak
northern stream shortwave troughs Fri into the weekend. Latest
guidance depicts the low level convergence mostly west of the
city. Additionally, not expecting any significant moisture
advection (aside from the thin layer near the surface due to the
sea breeze) until after sunset Wednesday. Thus, during the day
time, expect most of the shower and storm activity to stay
southwest of the region. It could start to expand eastward after
00Z (getting into the evening hours).

As the moisture builds particularly from Thursday onward, this
will present an isolated severe and flash flood threat,
primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Storm motions are
expected to be moderate through this period (20 to 30 kts), so
it may come down to if there will be any training of storms or
if brief, heavy downpours occur over the most flood vulnerable
locations. All that being said, the marginal (1 out of 4)
excessive rain outlook for Thursday and Friday seems reasonable
at this point. For the severe threat, that will be dependent on
the exact timing of the short wave troughs, which at this point
is uncertain. As we get closer, should have a better idea on the
periods where this may be more of a concern.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Very warm and very humid for Thursday into the weekend.

Temps should rise to at least to the upper 80s to around 90 for
NE NJ/NYC metro and the interior, with dewpoints in the mid
70s, from Thu through Mon. GFS MOS guidance shows lower
dewpoints but higher temperatures compared to NBM. Both bring
heat index values to 95-100 on Thu, 95-104 Fri, and continuing
above 95 in urban/coastal areas and across the interior river
valleys from Sat-Mon. If this trend continues, a heat advisory
may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains over the area tonight. The high weakens
during the morning with a weak frontal system slowly approaching
from the south through the afternoon.

Mainly VFR through 00z Wednesday. The exception is for pockets of
MVFR/IFR mainly for outlying terminals overnight into Wednesday
morning in fog or low stratus.

Wind speeds will be generally less than 10kt, with winds getting
to 5 kt or lower towards late evening and into the overnight. The
winds remain light and variable in direction at times through the
morning. Another round of southerly winds for Wednesday afternoon
mainly due to sea breeze influence. Some terminals further west
and inland may be more SW during Wednesday afternoon.

Isolated showers and storms are possible mainly after towards and
after 20Z Wednesday, but the latest guidance depicts that this is for
mainly the southwestern most terminals like KEWR and KTEB. Towards
00z Thursday a few showers and storms could get as far north as KSWF.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD not expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower flight cat at
times in showers/tstms, highest chance for western terminals.
Winds mainly S-SW.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Could see a period of winds/seas approaching 25 kt and 5 ft on
the ocean waters W of Moriches Inlet from late day into the
evening on Thu.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is expected for Wed
as SSE swells continue to subside closer to 3 ft. The moderate
risk should continue through most of Thursday, however it may
increase to high at some beaches by late in the day as southerly
winds and swells increase.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...99