What's Happening In Newington

881
FXUS61 KOKX 140101
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
901 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry with seasonal temps through Saturday.

2) A frontal system brings with it thunderstorms and a risk for
heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon into a portion of Sunday night.

3) Localized minor coastal flooding likely for vulnerable locales
along the south shore of Nassau county during the nighttime high
tide Tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A surface trough will linger nearby and over the area over the next
day or two. This may aid in a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing during and after peak heating in the afternoons and
evening. However, moisture available is marginal and the lift is
relatively weak with not enough shear. Whatever does develop will
stay isolated and short-lived.

Expecting mainly dry conditions otherwise through Saturday.
Saturday, not anticipating any rainfall, as high pressure will build
in from Canada over the next few days. Subsidence will be at its
strongest on Saturday with ample sunshine as the high centers itself
over the region.

Nothing relatively worth noting as far as temps go. Highs in the
mid/low 80s over the next few days with overnight lows mid/upper 60s
at the coast and low 60s to upper 50s in interior locations each
night.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Global models indicate a frontal system approaching the area early
Sunday. This frontal system will bring through a warm front early
Sunday, then a cold front late Sunday that moves through slowly into
Monday.

This frontal system will be our next focus for precipitation.
Anticipating good lift from a cold front Sunday aft/eve, PWATs of 2-
2.5 inches being advected in, midlevel energy from a passing
shortwave, a strong coastal LLJ, and the potential of decent
CAPE and Bulk Shear.

These factors will lead to a late afternoon to evening window for a
good coverage of showers and thunderstorms passing from west to east
through the area, possibly lingering into Sunday night out east.
Downpours will be possible with isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding a concern.

Severe weather chances look less certain. We`ll have to wait for the
system to enter the window of the CAMs to get a better handle on
that.

PWATs take a nosedive Sunday night as a NW flow takes over with
steadily dropping dewpoints Sunday night into Monday. Expect a quick
end to the rain west to east into Sunday night with dry weather to
follow on Monday.

There is still some variability among available model guidance with
respect to how quickly the front moves through Sunday night. If it
struggles and lingers into Monday, an additional round of rain could
be possible into the day on Monday.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Astro tides tick down 1 to 2 tenths for tonight high tides, and with
weak wind/wave forcing, iso-sct areas of minor flooding should
be relegated to vulnerable shoreline communities on the south
shore of Nassau county.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak cold front/surface trough slowly moves south of the
terminals this evening. High pressure then follows tonight into
Friday, before another weak cold front/surface trough passes
Friday evening.

Mainly VFR outside of a brief shower/isolated thunderstorm
Friday afternoon/evening.

Winds vary across the area early this evening from W/NW to SW
at 10 kt or less, but will become light northerly overnight.
Winds are then expected to back to the W/NW in the afternoon at
10 kt or less. Coastal terminals will likely seabreeze in the
afternoon or have some hybrid of such. There is more uncertainty
with winds during the afternoon and early evening hours.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may vary on either side of 270 this evening before veering
to the N/NW at less than 10 kt.

There is some uncertainty whether or not coastal terminals develop
a true seabreeze or a hybrid of such Friday afternoon.

Brief isolated showers/thunderstorm possible Friday
afternoon/evening.

Winds could vary quite bit Friday evening before a weak cold
front/surface trough passes, but should be light.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR into the afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms
possible with a chance of MVFR or lower conditions late in the day
and at night. S winds G15-25kt, highest at the coast.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Low probability for a shower.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions anticipated through Saturday night.

SCA conditions are possible Sunday into Sunday night from a frontal
system and a strong coastal LLJ with gusts 25kt+ in NY Harbor, South
Shore Bays, and ocean waters south of Long Island.

Rip Currents: 1-2 ft SE onshore swell and light winds will
generally keep the rip risk low through Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BR