What's Happening In Newington

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FXUS61 KOKX 081747
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
147 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Heat Advisory for today has been expanded to include all but
Orange county.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions persist into this afternoon. The
heat will continue into Sunday and Monday, but humidity will
slowly decrease thru the period.

2) Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this
afternoon and tonight, then potentially dry on Sunday.
Additional activity possible next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Main challenge today was that the MET came in low to mid 80s
for the entire area, well blw the MAV and NBM numbers. It looks
like it is an outlier based on either too much llvl moisture and
stratus, daytime convection, or a combination of the two. As a
result, felt the warmer data was more realistic so stuck with
the NBM and expanded the heat advy as a result. If the MET
verifies, the entire area will fall short.

It is still hot on Sun with the sfc trof still over the cwa
during the day. The current fcst numbers are right around the
95 degree heat index criteria for much of the area. The advy may
need to be extended, but with the data so marginal, decided to
hold off for now.

Drier Mon and Tue with the boundary S of the area and high pres
influencing the area. Still hot with highs in the upr 80s to
around 90. The usual hot spots across the SW may be close to
advy criteria based on the 95 degree threshold for consecutive
days.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The area should realize at least 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE today.
However, the upr lvl support is not great, with subsidence to
overcome. There is the boundary draped across the area, so this
should help to initiate convection or sustain what does develop
this aftn and tngt. As a result, would expected sct-isold tstm
coverage. The Marginal Risk from SPC just touching the swrn corner
of the CWA looks reasonable due to the limiting factors, but
there are 30kt mid lvl winds to work with along with wet
microburst potential so at least isold severe chances possible
elsewhere.

The modeling has been pretty dry for Sun, but the trof will
still be working swd thru the area with Td`s in the lower 70s
particularly across the srn half of the cwa. As a result,
confidence is not high that all areas will remain dry.
Timeheights show the subsidence attempting to suppress the
convection. Not sure if this will be good enough. Perhaps isold
coverage is the way to go for tstm chances Sun. Stuck with the
NBM data in the grids which for now is dry.

Zonal flow develops next week. This will introduce chances for
shwrs and tstms at times dependent on timing of upr lvl features
and the diurnal cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary across the
region this afternoon into this evening.

VFR with the potential for iso-sct late day/eve SHRA/TSRA with sub-
VFR towards and after 19-20z.

SW/WSW winds increase to 10-15kt this afternoon with gusts up to
around 20kt at some terminals. WSW-SW winds diminish under 10kt
tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be only occasional, especially at KJFK. TEMPO TSRA timing
for this afternoon into evening may be off by 1-2 hours.  Amendments
possible through this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night: VFR.

Monday: VFR through early afternoon. Isolated to scattered shower/
thunderstorm possible late in the day and evening.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Low probability of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, possible MVFR or lower in showers and
thunderstorms late in the day and at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are modeled to remain blw SCA lvls right thru the
middle of next week. Hazardous conditions can still be expected
invof of tstms however.

Rip Currents: SW flow and associated wind waves will lead to a
moderate rip current risk through Sunday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ068>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     176-178.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DW