What's Happening In Newington

946
FXUS61 KOKX 191122
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
722 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot weather thru Wed. A heat advisory remains in effect for
NE NJ and NYC.

2) An isold tstm is possible today. A cold front produces
scattered tstms on Wed with damaging winds the main severe
threat.

3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday
weekend with chances of showers.

4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good
boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Offshore high pressure and increasing low level SW warm air
advection will make for much warmer temperatures today and
Wednesday as well.

Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM today to 8PM
Wednesday. This is the first high heat index event of the year
for NE NJ and NYC.

Warmest day is today with SW flow and daytime mixing.
Temperatures in the 90s for all of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson
Valley and much of interior Southern CT as well as much of
Nassau County NY. Mid to upper 90s for high temperatures much NE
NJ and NYC Metro for temperatures and heat indices. Dewpoints
are mostly in the low 60s today. Slightly cooler high
temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still
getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those
zones.

This same distribution exists for high temperatures on
Wednesday as well but a few degrees cooler on average. The
dewpoints increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with values
mainly in the low to mid 60s. So for Wednesday, temperatures a
little less than the previous day but dewpoints a little higher
than the previous day. Highs mostly in the lower 90s Wednesday
for much of NE NJ and NYC with corresponding heat indices in the
mid 90s. Again, slightly cooler high temperatures and heat
indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s
especially for northern portions of those zones.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Subsidence and a lack of upr lvl support should limit convective
chances today, but there is a chance that an isold tstm is
triggered mainly across the interior this aftn where there will
be high CAPE and no CIN. Best severe chances if initiation does
occur could be interior CT into the Lower Hudson Valley invof
the CAPE gradient. NBM pops are generally dry, despite a
Marginal Risk from SPC. Stuck with the NBM pops for now and will
see what mesoscale analysis yields today.

No change to the fcst thinking for Wed. The cold front looks to
move in first for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT latter
half of the afternoon and then crosses through the NYC Metro
and coastal sections by early evening. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon through early
Wednesday evening. There is potential for severe thunderstorms
with damaging winds and large hail. Flooding threat minimal with
the westerly flow in the atmosphere and quick steering flow.
However, a quick period of heavy rain and possible minor
flooding cannot be ruled out with some thunderstorms.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday
weekend with quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure
moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward
into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes
Friday into the holiday weekend. In its place, low pressure
approaches from the south and west. Model variances on how far
north the low reaches.

Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for
Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are
around 70 on Thursday. Northerly flow presents downslope
warming first half of the day, allowing for coastal locations to
be relatively warmer than inland.

Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast
mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 and then just low to mid 60s
for most locations on Saturday.

Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly really
limiting the daytime warmth with more maritime influence. Along
with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to
be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers
heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting
farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and
west.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures
remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause
hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly
immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes
or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to
avoid this threat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal
system slowly approaching the terminals into Wednesday.

VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance of a shower or
thunderstorm this afternoon well NW of the NYC metro terminals.
Confidence remains too low to include in the TAFs.

SSW-SW winds under 10 kt to start this morning will increase to
10-15 kt by late morning into the early afternoon. Gusts around
20-25 kt are possible in the afternoon and early evening with a
few coastal terminals potentially seeing gusts a few kt higher.
There is a chance the gusts will end up occasional. Any gusts
should end around 00z with sustained wind speeds gradually
weakening below 10 kt tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may end up occasional this afternoon.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower in showers and possible
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. S-SW winds gusts
20-25 kt day into evening. Gusts end with winds shifting NW
in the evening.

Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Friday: Chance of showers and MVFR conditions.

Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing SW flow will produce SCA winds and seas on the ocean
thru Wed. Marginal elsewhere, especially the LI back bays where
winds will be close this aftn thru Wed. Conditions improve for
Thu and Fri behind the cold front, then worsen on Sat as ely
winds increase and seas build.

There could be sct strong tstms invof the front on Wed.

Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures
remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause
hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly
immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes
or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to
avoid this threat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

May 19:
KEWR: 98/1962
KBDR: 89/2017
KNYC: 99/1962
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 89/2017

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 19:
KEWR: 67/1986
KBDR: 66/2017
KNYC: 68/1986
KLGA: 68/2017
KJFK: 67/2017
KISP: 65/2017

May 20:
KEWR: 72/1996
KBDR: 61/2019
KNYC: 74/1996
KLGA: 77/1996
KJFK: 63/1996
KISP: 62/1996

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NJZ004-006-103>108.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...