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639
FXUS61 KOKX 031146
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
746 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is a marginal risk (SPC) for isolated severe thunderstorms
covering NYC, western LI, NE NJ, and portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley for this afternoon/early evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and embedded thunderstorms exit offshore this
morning with a chance of isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

2) Frontal wave passing to the south on Friday may produce a
round of showers, possibly a thunderstorm.

2) Mainly dry, seasonably cool conditions are forecast for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers associated with a warm front will exit the area this
morning. While the airmass is gradually destabilizing this
morning, do not expect anything more than an isolated
thunderstorm (best chance to the south of LI).

Forecast gets a bit more challenging later as a weak cold front
drops into the area late this afternoon into early this evening.
This coupled with a warm, humid warm sector and modest mid level
flow (around 40kt) raise the concerns for strong and/or severe
convection. There have also been convectively induced shortwaves
in the westerlies that have aided convection in recent days and
this looks to be the case today. There are some limiting factors
with the boundary being rather diffuse with marginal mid-level
lapse rates. This should limit the areal extent. SPC has placed
the SW portion of the forecast area (NYC, NE NJ, western LI, and
part of the Lower Hudson Valley) in a marginal risk, which
supports isolated severe thunderstorm development. The main
threat being damaging winds. Most of the CAMs support activity
either near or to the SW of the marginal risk area, with little
activity to the north and east. However, the area destabilizes
with the HREF mean SBCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/KG areawide.
This coupled with the aforementioned shortwave energy does
raise the concern for scattered strong convection elsewhere. Any
lingering convection should be over by around midnight.

High temperatures today will get into the 80s at most locations
with the mid and upper 80s across the NYC/NJ metro. This
combined with dew points getting into the 70s will produce heat
index values of 90 to 95 in the metro area.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Guidance has been trending toward a chance of showers, possibly
a thunderstorm on Friday as a frontal wave passes near or just
south of the area. There is no severe weather threat with weak
instability.

High temperatures continue to trend warmer with Friday once
again into the 80s. The only difference looks to be a WNW flow
with some drier air. It will feel less humid.

The front gets a better push or shot of cold advection Friday
night as an upper trough drops south across eastern Canada and
into the Northeast. In fact, an upper low closes off over the
Canadian Maritimes and remains there for much of the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The airmass becomes much cooler and drier Friday night into the
holiday weekend. Temperatures will be close to normal on
Saturday, then slightly below normal for Sunday. There may be a
slight warming trend on Labor Day. Less humid conditions are
also forecast for the holiday weekend. Mainly dry conditions may
prevail into the middle of next week.

In addition, with the aforementioned upper low over the Canadian
Maritimes, some wraparound moisture moisture from offshore low
pressure and weak instability may trigger a shower Saturday
afternoon/evening. Best chance will be across eastern LI and SE
CT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front lifts through terminals this morning. A trailing
cold front follows this evening.

Categories fluctuate this morning between IFR and VFR with the
nearby frontal boundary, with a few lingering showers also
briefly restricting vsbys at some terminals. MVFR cigs likely
develop and linger through much of the rest of the morning. More
consistent improvement to VFR by early afternoon. A round of
thunderstorms is possible during the second half of the
afternoon and into the evening, though confidence remains low on
coverage and placement.

W or SW flow into the morning hours as the front lifts through.
SW winds increase 10 to 13 kt by late morning, and occasional
gusts up to 20 kt are possible in the afternoon. Flow turns NW
overnight into Friday AM behind the cold fropa.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Conditions may fluctuate between VFR, MVFR, and IFR this morning.

Timing of improvement could be off by an hour or two.

Low confidence in possible TSRA late this afternoon and early
this evening. Timing could also be several hours later.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR in afternoon showers.

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through
the upcoming holiday weekend.

A 2-3 ft E/SE swell today combined with a southerly flow at
10-15kt will keep a moderate rip current risk in place. The
swell diminishes for Friday, and with winds out of the NW to W
providing little additional energy for rip current development,
the rip current risk will be low.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DW