What's Happening In Newington

170
FXUS61 KOKX 160640
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
240 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts have been lowered for this evening through
Monday morning.

WPC has moved the marginal risk for excessive rainfall
tonight to only include NE NJ, NYC, and western Long Island.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and a few thunderstorms this evening through a portion of
Monday morning may produce locally heavy downpours. Minor
urban and poor drainage flooding is the main concern, but
a localized flash flood risk exists close to the coast.

2) Dry with near normal temperatures Monday night through Wednesday
before the next chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday
night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure shifts offshore through this afternoon. A warm
front gradually approaches from the southwest with warm
advection increasing into the evening. Most of the daytime will
be dry, but a shower cannot be ruled out late in the afternoon
well north and west of the NYC metro.

Ahead of the warm front this afternoon will be a decaying
convective complex moving out of central/eastern PA into the
region this evening. The complex will likely just be an area of
showers as it races ahead of the greatest instability axis,
which will reside well to our south and west. While an isolated
heavy downpour or thunderstorms is possible within this complex,
most of the showers will be on the moderate to light side. The
majority of this activity will most likely occur across the
western half of the area, so parts of SE CT and eastern LI may
remain mostly dry through the first half of the night.

The warm front will then make its closest approach to the
southern portion of the area overnight into early Monday
morning. A weak wave of low pressure is still progged to develop
along the warm front and then move over or just south of the
area late tonight into Monday morning. This will support the
development of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Instability should increase somewhat, but will be dependent on
how far north the warm front and the resulting track of the low.
If the low and front remain south of Long Island, showers may
end up mostly on the moderate side with perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm/heavy downpour, mainly confined to the southern
half of the area. If the low and front end up further north over
or just north of Long Island, the showers and a few
thunderstorms, could be locally heavy at times, especially
across portions of the NYC metro, Long Island, and southern CT.

PWATs should be able to climb to around 2 inches. However, the
progressive nature to the system along with limited instability
should prevent anything more than minor/urban poor drainage
flooding and a localized flash flood risk. The risk of any
localized flash flooding would most likely end up late
tonight/early Monday morning when the warm front and low
pressure are closest to the area. WPC has trimmed back the
marginal risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding to include
only NE NJ, NYC metro and western Long Island. This is supported
by continued trends in all deterministic global, AI models, and
the latest CAMs. Average rainfall amounts range three tenths
across interior Lower Hudson Valley to one half to three
quarters most elsewhere. An inch is possible across eastern Long
Island. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out in any
heavier downpours.

There is no severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon and
evening. The limited instability should keep the threat minimal
overnight/Monday morning. However, will have to watch near and
along the warm front/low pressure late tonight/early Monday if
instability were to increase more than currently forecast.

Any lingering showers across E Long Island and SE Connecticut
should end around mid Monday morning. A trailing cold
front/surface trough will move across the area late in the day,
which may be enough to support scattered shower and isolated
thunder development. The higher probability (chance) resides
inland and across NE NJ and NYC metro. Cannot rule out a brief
locally heavy downpour. Further east the chances are much lower
due to subsidence from behind the passing low pressure.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will build over the area Monday night through the
middle of the week. This will lead to dry conditions and
seasonably warm temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Models
continue to come into better agreement with the next shortwave
trough and associated cold front moving over the northeast late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Much of the energy and lift may
pass well to the NW, limiting potential for
showers/thunderstorms. However, there is still some ensemble
spread which is captured well with the NBM. PoPs increase late
Wednesday night and continue in the chance range through
Thursday afternoon.

Uncertainty is much higher for the end of the week/start of next
weekend. High pressure may build over the northeast, but the front
that moves through Thursday may stall to our south. Some of the
guidance hints at a few waves of low pressure riding along the
front. It remains to be seen if any unsettled weather will occur
heading into next weekend. The current NBM precip probabilities
indicate a slight chance on Friday and chance next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore this morning. A frontal system
then approaches from the west and impacts the area terminals
late this afternoon into tonight.

VFR through much of the day. Chances for MVFR increase late
this afternoon into this evening along with the chance for
showers. The chances for MVFR and SHRA will continue through
much of Sunday night. Some IFR cigs will also be possible Sunday
night.

Light and variable winds are expected through early this
morning before becoming more southerly and increasing to near
10 kt. Gusts begin to develop in the afternoon and evening from
15 to 20 kt, mainly along the coast. The southerly winds along
with gusts will be likely through Sunday night.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts and MVFR could be off by a few hours compared to TAF.

Timing of showers could be off by a few hours compared to TAF.

A chance of IFR towards end of TAF period.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: Showers become more widespread. MVFR to IFR
conditions. Brief localized LIFR possible. A few thunderstorms are
possible late. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt at
times possible.

Monday: MVFR to IFR early with showers and possible thunderstorms.
A few showers and thunderstorms possible afternoon into early
evening with MVFR possible. Overall, chances for VFR increase
afternoon into night.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance for showers and MVFR at night. A
slight chance of thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt
afternoon into early evening.

Thursday: A chance of showers with MVFR possible. Otherwise,
mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
S flow gradually increases today as the high moves offshore.
This will yield potential for 25-30 kt wind gusts on the NY
harbor, ocean, and south shore LI Bays. Winds on LI Sound and
eastern LI Bays should remain just below SCA levels. 25 kt wind
gusts may linger on the ocean into Monday before subsiding in
the late afternoon. Seas will also build into this evening,
reaching 5- 7 ft tonight into early Monday. Seas subside Monday
afternoon and evening. Conditions will then remain below SCA
levels Monday night through Thursday with a relatively weak
pressure gradient in place.

Rip Currents:
For today, the rip current risk is moderate for NYC, Nassau and
western Suffolk ocean beaches and low for eastern Suffolk ocean
beaches remains low into this eve at ocean beaches. Seas will
be slow to build and may only reach around 3 ft late in the
afternoon for western Beaches.

For Monday, the rip current risk is moderate for NYC and Nassau
ocean beaches and high for Suffolk ocean beaches. Seas will be
subsiding to 3 to 4 ft for Nassau and NYC ocean beaches with a
light offshore flow developing through the day. At Suffolk ocean
beaches, residual 5 ft seas are expected to continue for much
of the day. This could lower to moderate if the higher seas
subside faster than currently expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS