What's Happening In Newington

284
FXUS61 KOKX 060251
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1051 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in the development of severe weather has increased
slightly for late Saturday. The Slight Risk from the Storm
Prediction Center has been expanded to included most of the area,
including all of New York City.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms possible late Sat afternoon and
evening.

2) Widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible on Sun.

3) Dry weather continues into midweek with a warming trend.
Possible showers and thunderstorms and warmer temperatures
towards late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
After a hot day on Sat with highs in the 80s and 90s, an approaching
cold front and falling heights are expected to trigger tstms in the
aftn and eve. SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg and initial DCAPE around 1000
indicate an initial downburst potential across wrn zones,
transitioning into bowing segments as the development spreads east
across the cwa. There is around 30-40kt of wind at h85 to work with
as well, contributing to the wind threat. The BRN shows good shear
to instability balance across most of the area, with a tendency to
multicellular mode from roughly Staten Island west and east.

The NAM models storm motion in the 10-15kt range, so in general the
flood threat looks to remain in the minor urban and poor drainage
category.

Timing is mainly late aftn into the eve, but tstms may linger
overnight with even an isold severe threat continuing due to
cyclonic flow aloft and elevated instability.

One challenge to the fcst is whether weak convection invof the
prefrontal trof inhibits development later in the aftn and early
eve. The NAM hints at this. If this does occur, aftn and eve tstms
will be less widespread and the severe threat limited. The overall
pattern however suggests a more robust event, so the expansion of
the Slight Risk through most of the cwa by SPC seems
appropriate.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong h5 vort max will drop sewd thru the region on Sun, drawing
the cold front thru from the N. Warm temps initially with mixing wly
component winds early in the day are progged to set up some steep
lapse rates as the cold pools drops in. There are some significant
differences with model timing and placement, so confidence is a bit
blw avg attm. However, still think isold-sct shwrs and tstms is a
good fcst for the day, especially the ern half of the area closest
to the upr lvl low.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The high pressure over the region shifts more to the south Monday
night into Wednesday. Ridging aloft will be strong. Conditions will
be dry. Airmass gradually becomes warmer.

The high pressure becomes more Western Atlantic based and weakens
across the local region Wednesday night into Friday. Ridging aloft
weakens as well with a shortwave trough moving in. Weak surface low
moves nearby. This will make for a more unsettled weather pattern.
The forecast has a possibility of showers and thunderstorms.

The showers and thunderstorms are not expected to impact much
overall with the warming temperature pattern for this forecast
period as their temporal and spatial extent will be limited. Airmass
will continue to warm and become more humid as well.

Temperatures start to reach more into the 90s mid to late next week.
Possibility for some mid 90s to near 100 degree heat indices
Thursday and Friday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure gradually gives way to an approaching cold front,
which will pass through the area Saturday night.

This will be a mainly VFR forecast outside of showers and
thunderstorms that move through the area Saturday night, along
and ahead of the cold front. Isolated to scattered severe
thunderstorms are expected. There is some uncertainty with the
timing. Right now, the best chance looks to be after 00Z Sunday
(8PM EDT), but possibly earlier to the north and west of the NYC
terminals.

Winds will become light S-SW this evening and in some cases
becoming light and variable. SW winds then increase during the
morning into afternoon hours, increasing to 10-15kt G20-25kt.
A few higher gusts possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing and onset of increasing wind/wind gusts Saturday may
vary by 1-2 hours.

There is some uncertainty with the timing of showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of an approaching cold front on
Saturday. At this time, the 00Z to 06Z Sunday time window is the
most favorable time. This will be refined as we draw closer to
the event.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night: Sub-VFR in any strong to severe thunderstorms.
SW wind G20 kt in the evening, but higher in any thunderstorms.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in widely scattered to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. NW G15-20kt.

Monday-Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing SW flow on Sat will bring seas to around 5ft on the
ocean, with winds close to 25kt as well. A SCA remains in
effect for the ocean from 18Z Sat thru Sat ngt. Elsewhere,
winds appear marginal for a SCA, so have not issued an advy
there attm. Winds become NW on Sun behind a departing cold
front. Speeds are modeled to remain just blw SCA lvls, with seas
on the ocean subsiding to around 4ft. Winds and seas blw SCA
lvls all waters on Mon.

Below SCA conditions are expected with high pressure in control
Monday night into midweek. A potential return to SCA conditions
for the ocean Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for Saturday
into Saturday evening. There is a moderate risk of rip currents
for Sunday into Sunday evening.

There will be increasing onshore winds and swells with relatively
highest winds and swells expected on Saturday.

The southerly winds increase to 15-20 kt Saturday with gusts
near 25 kt. Ocean seas build to 4 to 5 ft Saturday. The winds
become more westerly Sunday with less onshore component but
southerly swells will remain near 3 to 4 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:

Friday, June 5

KEWR: 95 (2021)
KBDR: 87 (2025)
KNYC: 99 (1925)
KLGA: 94 (2010)
KJFK: 90 (2010)
KISP: 88 (2010, 2026)* KISP tied their record high temperature today


Saturday, June 6

KEWR: 97 (2021)
KBDR: 93 (2021)
KNYC: 98 (1925)
KLGA: 95 (2021)
KJFK: 90 (1968)
KISP: 90 (2021)


Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures:

Saturday, June 6

KEWR: 71 (2021)
KBDR: 67 (2025)
KNYC: 77 (1925)
KLGA: 76 (2021)
KJFK: 69 (2024)
KISP: 68 (2024)

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JM