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489
FXUS61 KOKX 251712
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
112 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued for a large portion of
the coastline to cover multiple high tide cycles from tonight
through Sunday.

The Wind Advisory was expanded in area. It now includes all of
Long Island, NYC, all of S CT, all of Westchester, Rockland,
and all but W Passaic in NE NJ.

All ocean waters are now under a Storm Warning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An early season nor`easter will bring a prolonged period of
strong winds and rainfall. The Wind Advisory has been expanded
to include all of S CT, N Westchester, Rockland, and all but W
Passaic in NE NJ.

2) Coastal flooding impacts expected through the weekend.
Greatest impacts expected Saturday and Sunday.

3) High surf and rip current risk through at least Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An early season nor`easter will bring a prolonged period of
strong winds and rainfall.

Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast is expected to
strengthen and deepen over the next day as it tracks up the east
coast towards our area. An upper low will develop to the west of
the surface low, causing the low to slowly deepen through
Saturday night, then the system becomes vertically stacked and
the low is forecast to retrograde toward the coast and slowly
weaken into Monday morning. It will then make start to depart to
the NE into Tuesday morning.

Spotty light rain showers could begin in eastern portions of
the area midday to Friday afternoon then Friday evening in
western portions of the area. Then, periods of moderate to heavy
stratiform rain expands west Friday night through Saturday
night. Rainfall will taper Sunday night and eventually end
southwest to northeast into Monday night.

Total rainfall Friday through Sunday looks to be 3-4" across
central and eastern Long Island and 1-3" elsewhere, with lower
amounts as you head west. The highest axis of rainfall could
shift if the track of the nor`easter shifts. However, much of
the rainfall will fall over a 24-36 hour period, so flash flood
concerns are low at this time. But the areas of greatest are
currently Long Island into much of S/SE CT where the highest
totals are expected. This is also the area where WPC has
highlighted in a Slight (level 2 out of 4) risk for excessive
rainfall. West of this, much of the area is still in a Marginal
(level 1out of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.

The nor`easter will also bring strong winds. NE/N winds will
gradually increase Friday morning and afternoon under an increasing
pressure gradient from the deepening low. Peak winds will be Friday
night through Saturday night. Then, winds will gradually diminish
through Sunday into Sunday night as the nor`easter weakens over or
near the area. Peak wind speeds will be 20-25 mph with higher
localized speeds around 35 mph. Wind gusts will peak around 40-50
mph with localized higher gusts nearing 55 mph. The localized
highest gusts are currently most likely to occur on the eastern
end of Long Island or at immediate south shorelines of Long
Island. NE wind directions are expected Friday, becoming N on
Saturday into a portion of Sunday. A Wind Advisory continues for
Long Island and NYC. The Wind Advisory was expanded to include
all of S CT, all of Westchester, Rockland, and all but W Passaic
in NE NJ. Mainly places may not actually see gusts in excess of
45 mph, but the long duration rain (saturating the soil) and
strong winds may allow for a few trees/power lines to come down
during this time frame at wind speeds less 46 mph or higher.The
advisory is in effect 2 pm Friday to 6 am Sunday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Coastal flooding will occur around the times of high tide
through at least Sunday.

For early this morning, there could be some minor coastal
flooding around the times of high tide along the shorelines of
NY Harbor shorelines and the south shore bays of Long Island.

Worst of coastal flooding looks to be Saturday into Sunday. The
full moon on Saturday will lead to high astronomical tides,
which in combination with surge will lead to widespread moderate
to major flooding for multiple high tide cycles. Forecast is
based on a blend of bias corrected ETSS, STOFS, and the Stevens
NYHOPS central (50th percentile) forecasts.

Areas of most concern include all of Long Island, the lower
boroughs of NYC, and along western Long Island Sound.

Along the SE CT coast and for tidally effected waters of NE NJ
and the lower Hudson Valley, flooding will be minor to locally
moderate. Coastal flood advisories and flood advisories are in
effect for these areas.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
High risk of rip currents and high surf through Saturday along
ocean shorelines. While ocean swells in outer ocean reach near
13-16 ft, surf height of near 7-11 ft expected closer to shore.
There will be some variation due to swell orientation, with
occasionally more ENE vs more ESE swell direction. The lack of
orthogonal component to shoreline really limits the surf heights
closer to the shore.

However, with current buoy observations running higher than
GFSWave by a few feet, felt wave heights are already within
advisory range within the surf zone. Beach flooding and erosion
can be expected Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A developing offshore low will slowly approach from the south and
east into the weekend. The low will bring a prolonged period
of strong N/NE winds and periods of rain.

Mainly VFR through this evening. Rain should gradually develop
from east to west from late this afternoon / evening, and through
tonight. MVFR conditions increasingly likely after midnight, except
for the more western terminals (KSWF, KTEB, KEWR) where MVFR
conditions will take longer to develop, possibly not until after
12z Saturday.

N-NE winds will increase this afternoon, reaching mainly 20-25 kt
with gusts over 30 kt at the NYC metro and coastal terminals.
Gusts 35-40 kt expected tonight into Sat AM. Some peak gusts
to 45 kt possible towards 06z possible for far eastern terminals
like KISP and KGON.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday afternoon - Saturday night: Flight cats mainly MVFR through
the day and MVFR/IFR at night as the coastal storm nears the area.
N/NE gusts 30-40 kt Friday night into Saturday. Winds/gusts may
be up to 5-10 kt higher than fcst if the storm is closer to the
area. LLWS Saturday into Saturday night.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR in rain. N winds 15-20kt, G25-30kt.

Monday: MVFR, possibly IFR early with a chance of showers,
improving to VFR in the afternoon. N gusts around 20kt in
the morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. Light winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A nor`easter will impact waters through Monday before high
pressure moves back into the area thereafter.

Gale Warnings are currently in effect on all waters, except a
Storm Warning for the eastern ocean zone. Gale Warnings on the
ocean out to 20 NM were upgraded to Storm Warnings starting
tonight. Headlines are in effect through Saturday, thereafter, a
step down or extension of headlines will be needed.

Gale Warning areas will see winds up to 35-45 kt and Storm
Warning areas will see wind gusts 48-55 kt. Waves on ocean
waters during this period will peak 15-22 ft on outer ocean
waters and 7-15 ft on inn er ocean waters. LI sound will see
waves over 5 ft. SCA conditions should continue on all waters
into Sunday then on ocean waters into Sunday night. By Monday
night, all waters should drop below SCA criteria.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ005>012.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Sunday for CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Sunday for CTZ011-012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ069>075-078>081-
     176>179.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Sunday for NYZ071-073>075-078>081-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Sunday for NYZ072.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ080.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ004-006-103>108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Sunday for NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ338.
     Storm Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-380-383-385.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-355.
     Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ353.
     Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/JP
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JP