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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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872 FXUS61 KOKX 241946 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 346 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Tranquil weather with dry conditions, slightly below normal temperatures and comfortable humidity thru the weekend. 2) A slow moving frontal system may bring an extended period of unsettled weather late Monday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Mean troughing will exist over the NE US this weekend, deepening down the East coast east next week. At the surface, Canadian Maritime high pressure remains in control through the weekend. This will maintain dry conditions, with slightly below normal temperatures (as much as 5 degrees below normal) and comfortable humidity levels. High temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and low temperatures in the upper 50s across interior and LI pine barrens and 60s for city/coast. With the weak pressure gradient, E/NE winds will remain fairly light giving way to afternoon coastal seabreezes. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Models in general agreement with an eastern US trough amplifying down the US East Coast (-2 std 500 HPA height across Mid- Atlantic) through the early to mid week as a series of weak shortwaves rotate down the western side of Western US ridging, with potential closed upper low developing over the NE US midweek. At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches late Monday into Tuesday, gradually crossing Wednesday, before exiting Thursday. Scattered late day shower/thunderstorm potential west of the Hudson R. Greatest potential for shower and embedded thunderstorms activity appears to be during Tuesday-Thursday time frame with potential low pressure development along the front. Low pressure will likely only affect the region for 12-24 hrs, but model spread exists on exact timing of closed low and surface low withing the Tue-Thu timeframe. Even if surface low pressure clears on Tuesday, could have lingering aft/eve instability shra/tsra on Wed and Thu. Inherently low predictability on details this far out, but the slow movement of this system, shortwave forcing, and moistening environment poses a low flash flood threat at this time. Astronomical tides will be rising thru this period as well. The anomalous upper low/cold pool does bring potential for diurnally enhanced convection, but severe thunderstorm potential would be predicated on development/track of surface low pressure and extent of diurnal heating and instability development. More details as the weekend progresses. Gradually improving conditions likely for late week, but mean troughing likely remains. Near seasonable temps likely during this time period. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR with high pressure in control. SE winds 10 kt or less into early this evening. Winds go light and variable tonight. NE winds develop Saturday morning, becoming E-SE late morning into the afternoon. Wind speeds increase to 10-13 kt Saturday afternoon, strongest along the immediate coast. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of wind shift this afternoon to the SE at LGA may be off by 1-2 hours .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday Afternoon-Sunday: VFR. Monday: MVFR possible in the afternoon and evening. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm from the NYC metros north/west. Tuesday: MVFR or lower conditions possible. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. S wind gusts 15-20 kt. Wednesday: Chance of MVFR and showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... With high pressure over the waters and remaining nearby into the weekend, a prolonged stretch of sub advisory conditions expected through the weekend and to begin next week. Persistent 15g20kt easterly flow Sat and Sun will likely have seas building to around 4ft, possibly touching 5ft. Thereafter, SCA conditions may return to the ocean waters and possibly all waters Tue-Wed, but will be dependent on timing of frontal system and possible low pressure development. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents within an E to W long shore current regime is expected through the weekend, with a 1-2 ft SE wind wave/swell, and gradually building 3-4 easterly wind wave/swell (particularly Sat and Sun). && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV AVIATION...DS MARINE...NV |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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