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FXUS61 KOKX 222001 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small craft advisories have expanded in area and have been
extended in time into tonight, Friday and Friday night. Coastal
flood statement for Southern Nassau for early Friday morning
with brief minor coastal flooding.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions and gradually warming daytime temperatures
are expected Friday through Monday. Dry conditions continue
through much of next week.

2) For Friday night into the weekend, locations within our
region (mainly across interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley ,
Southern CT, parts of Eastern Suffolk NY) there will be frost
potential for late night and early morning.

3) Minor coastal flooding possible in back bays of Nassau County
NY for the morning high tide. For subsequent high tide cycles
through early Saturday, additional minor coastal flooding
possible for the same location.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Daytime high temperatures trend from below normal Friday to near
normal Saturday and then more above normal Sunday and Monday. Dry
conditions are forecast to prevail.

Mid levels from numerical weather prediction models indicate rising
heights into the weekend. Trough exits east of the Canadian
Maritimes with ridge moving in from the west. The ridging weakens
late this weekend into early next week. At the surface, the low
pressure associated with Josephine moves well out into the
Northern Atlantic and east of Canadian Maritimes through Friday
as high pressure builds in from the north across our local region.

Strong surface high pressure will be the main feature heading
into the weekend with prevailing dry conditions. The pressure
gradient will gradually weaken allowing for lighter winds. This
will further allow for greater daytime insolation and greater
nighttime radiational cooling with a more vast range in
temperature between max and min.

Surface high pressure weakens and shifts farther south and west
Sunday night into early next week. Dry conditions prevail through
this weekend and into next week despite a cold front moving
across late Monday into Monday night. Temperatures warm up for
daytime highs this weekend and into early next week. Warmest
day looks to be Monday with models showing relatively highest
850mb temperatures near 11 to 13 degrees C. Some locations are
forecast to reach near 70 degrees Fahrenheit for Monday`s highs.
That is the warmest day of the forecast period through next
week.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
With more radiational cooling each night, temperatures in outlying
areas and rural sections will drop further.

Frost is expected to develop in these areas, mainly across the
northern half of the forecast area. For tonight, patchy frost is
forecast across parts of the interior and will be limited in spatial
extent due to winds staying up in the boundary layer. Lows
tonight range from mid 30s to upper 40s for much of the area.

Larger areas of frost forecast late Friday night into early Saturday
morning as well as late Saturday night into early Sunday morning
mainly across the interior, coastal CT and within Suffolk County NY.

Frost formation Sunday night into early Monday morning is forecast
to be more restricted to the interior zones as more SW surface winds
develop but stay light. High pressure will be weakening for this
timeframe across the local region as it shifts farther south and
west of the region. Forecast lows Sunday night range across
Long Island more in the upper 30s to lower 50s as a result.

Now we already have ended the growing season across interior
Southern CT, Orange NY, Putnam NY, Rockland NY, Northern
Westchester NY, Passaic NJ, Western Bergen NJ, Western Essex NJ,
Western Union NJ as of October 21st.

For those zones still with an active growing season, the zones
with the relatively higher chance of meeting thresholds for
frost advisory and perhaps even freeze headlines would be
Eastern Suffolk with lows for portion of Suffolk, primarily
around the Pine Barrens into start of Twin Forks, forecast to
drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s along with areas of frost
forecast. This areal extent of this at this point forecast to be
less than half of the zone so there are no headlines issued
regarding this at this time.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
With the approach of a full moon late this weekend and a persistent
easterly swell water levels will be elevated through the next
several high tide cycles. Brief minor flooding of the more
vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline is possible
for the Nassau south shore bays with the Friday morning high tide
cycle. Thus a coastal flood statement for the Friday morning high
tide has been issued for this possibility. Subsequent high tide
cycles through early Saturday are expected to get near minor coastal
flood benchmarks. Therefore additional coastal flood headlines may
be needed over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR as Subtropical Storm Josephine begins to track away from the
area out into the north Atlantic through Fri.

N winds gusting to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon
should diminish to 10 kt or less after 22Z, then may pick up a
again to 10-15 kt for a few hours this evening and overnight after
02Z-03Z. Winds become NNE either side of 10 kt (highest at the NYC
metros) late tonight into Fri, then veer more NE in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts to 20 kt possible 03Z-08Z Fri.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday afternoon through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90


&&

.MARINE...
For late this afternoon into early this evening, winds not gusting
as high as earlier. Gusts to mostly 20 kt with some occasional gusts
to 25 kt.

However, for tonight more low level cold air advection is expected
to make for more gusts by late this evening and overnight. The RAP
and HRRR model BUFKIT have pretty good agreement of gusts 25-30 kt
range latter half of this evening into overnight over the waters.

With the forecast trend upward overall for tonight regarding winds,
SCAs were extended in time through tonight for all non-ocean zones.
For all non-ocean zones except NY Harbor, the SCA goes until 10AM
Friday whereas for NY Harbor, the SCA ends at 6AM Friday. Expecting
another round of gusts near 25 kt for waters surrounding Long Island
Friday morning but not as much across the NY Harbor.

For Friday afternoon, gusts all marine zones forecast to lower below
SCA thresholds. However ocean seas will remain elevated into SCA
range and this extends into Friday night. Do not think this will
prevail the entirety of Friday night, just the evening. Ocean
SCA has been extended until 10PM Friday night but for Moriches
to Montauk Point until midnight Friday night.

Thereafter for rest of Friday night and through early next week, a
weak enough pressure gradient across the waters with conditions
mainly below SCA thresholds forecast for all marine zones.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for
     ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE/JM
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JM