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474
FXUS61 KOKX 072026
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
326 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds and dry conditions continue through Monday.

2) Next week, weak frontal systems with potential stronger low
pressure approach towards weeks end. Mainly dry initially but
chances of rain Thursday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Strong upper level low continues to move towards the Canadian
Maritimes with its associated surface low retrograding back
northwest within Southeast Canada. In the mid levels, the region
will be in between shortwaves, with some ridging taking place.
Surface high pressure remains well south and west as the low
strengthens as it moves farther northeast from the local area.

Winds will remain elevated as the pressure gradient persists
with low temperatures tonight in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

For Sunday, temperatures will mainly be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Expect gusty winds to persist through Monday as the
pressure gradient persisting between low pressure over eastern
Canada and high pressure to our south and west.

Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to near 50 with
Monday`s high in the upper 50s to low 60s.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Mid levels transition from WNW to ESE type flow to more SW to NE
towards the end of the week. At the surface, a few frontal systems
pass within the early to midweek period, but they are weak in
magnitude. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail.

Towards the end of next week, more of a low pressure influence
develops with more meridional flow aloft. Models are indicating both
the potential of larger low pressure area as well as a stronger low
pressure area. Forecast has more chances of rain Thursday through
Friday as a result. Too early to determine assessment for any
impacts with model run to run variability with regard to the
position of the low and orientation of upper level trough.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper low moves north of the area tonight and east tomorrow.

Generally VFR conditions are expected though pockets of MVFR
cigs linger mainly for northern terminals. A chance of MVFR in
scattered showers for some northern terminals this evening and a
portion of the overnight. Best chance will be for KSWF. Another
round of MVFR cigs remains possible overnight and into the
morning push on Sunday. Due to reduced confidence in occurrence,
left this possibility as a TEMPO for now. VFR conditions
expected to prevail much of the day Sunday.

NW to W winds of 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon
and this evening. The winds will remain up at most terminals
overnight with prevailing gusts, with only a few outlying
terminals perhaps losing gusts for a short while later in the
overnight. Gusts should largely diminish by Sunday afternoon as
the wind shifts to more W-WSW.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Onset time of gusts may be off by 1-3 hours. Timing and duration of
MVFR may be off by a few hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday and Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in possible showers.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy conditions today through Monday. SCA extended into Monday
morning for the ocean waters.

For non-ocean zones, SCA continues into the day on Sunday.

The pressure gradient will remain rather steep between low pressure
to the northeast and high pressure well to the southwest through
Monday. Winds trend more downward next week Monday night into
midweek allowing for mainly sub-SCA conditions except for the
ocean which may very well have some lingering swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...20