NewingtonWeather.COM

998
FXUS61 KOKX 041206
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
806 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A spotty late day shower then can`t be ruled out, mainly
from NYC on west.

2) Cooler, drier, and more comfortable weather settles in
through Labor Day Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The region remains sandwiched in between mid and upper level
ridging centered over the Southeast and a digging trough across
southeast Canada and New England.

The shower and thunderstorm activity which moved across the
area overnight continues to slide further offshore. Conditions
will generally remain dry through the remainder of the day.
Another weak shortwave passes south from into tonight. This may
result in a few isolated showers or thunderstorms late today
into this evening, mainly from around NYC on south and west.

Otherwise, the muggy conditions persist for one more day, and
temperatures remain seasonably warm for early September.
Afternoon highs top out in the low to mid 80s, and will feel
more like the upper 80s to around 90 with the humidity.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Trough digs into the Northeast as the associated upper low
meanders into the Canadian Maritimes over the next couple of
days, helping usher in a less humid and cooler regime for the
holiday weekend.

Drier air advecting south as a Canadian high builds in results
is much lower humidity levels. Dew pts fall from the low 70s
down into the low 60s by Saturday, and into the 50s for Sunday.
This will offer a much less muggy and more comfortable feel to
the air this weekend.

The cold pool aloft and cyclonic flow could help to instigate some
shower activity late Saturday afternoon, especially across S
CT, though hi-res CAMs are keeping coverage rather isolated to
scattered, and not everyone will see wet weather. More likely
for most, a healthy stratocu deck develops by mid afternoon and
conditions remain dry. Saturday will be the warmer day of the
weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Sunday and
Labor Day both feature dry conditions and daytime temperatures
in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak cold front pushes through this morning.

VFR. NW winds increase 10-15kt this morning with gusts up to
around 20kt this afternoon. NW-NNW winds diminish this evening.


       NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts this afternoon may be only occasional and may end an hour
or two earlier than currently forecast. Winds should prevail
north or right of 310 magnetic, but could prevail south of 310
for a few hours this afternoon at KEWR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through early
next week. There is potential for 25-30 kt wind gusts and 5-6ft seas
towards the middle to end of next week ahead of and behind a strong
cold frontal passage.

Rip Currents:

A lack of significant wind or swell will lead to a low rip
current risk both today and Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC/DR
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DR