What's Happening In Newington

003
FXUS61 KOKX 190858
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
358 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snow is coming to an end. Winter weather advisories have ended.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Drier air works back into the region as low pressure departs.

2.) Temperatures will remain cold for much of the week.

3.) Potential for snow next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure well east of the region continues to slide
northeast away from the region. As it does, drier air will start
to work into the region from west to east. While there may
still be some light snow falling, most of the accumulating snow
has ended. Road will remain slick through the early morning
hours.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A period of cold weather is expected this week as a series of
cold fronts push across the region. The first front moves across
the region Monday night. Expect temperatures Monday night to
fall into the teens. With a brisk westerly flow of 15-20 mph
wind chills will fall as low as a couple of degrees below zero
in most areas NW of NYC, and in the lower single digits
elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the lower 20s with
wind chills in the single digits and teens. High pressure moves
overhead Tuesday night with lows falling into the single digits
and teens.

As the high slides east and a return flow sets up, temperatures warm
a bit on Wednesday and then a few degrees further on Thursday. Highs
on Wednesday will be in the upper 20s and 30s. Thursday will be the
warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. A
few rain/snow showers will be possible on Thursday as a warm front
lift northward across the region.


A cold front moves across the region late Thursday, followed by a
second on Friday evening. It will be this second cold front that
brings a modified Arctic air mass into the area for the weekend.
Highs on Friday will be in the middle 20s to lower 30s. The weekend
will see highs only in the teens and lower 20s. Overnight lows will
fall into the single digits.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Forecast shows are hinting at the potential for a snowfall
event next weekend. 00z GFS keeps things dry with the low
passing to the south, while the CMC models brings a quick moving
clipper system across the area and a more robust low passing to
the south. The AI models bring the low closer to the region.
Its still way to early for any type of specifics, but something
we need to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Offshore low pressure exits farther out to sea overnight. A cold
front then moves through Monday evening.

Any remaining sub-VFR conditions will improve through 12Z to
VFR. VFR expected for the remainder of the TAF period.

NW winds shifting to the W/WNW by the morning push. Speeds
increase by late morning, with gusts toward 25 kt developing and
persisting through Monday evening and into the first part of
the night with a cold fropa.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for changing flight categories.

Gusts may be more occasional in the early evening, before picking up
behind the frontal passage after 00Z Tue.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late Monday Night: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR. SW-S winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: A period of MVFR or lower possible with a band of snow.
Rain may mix in near the coasts.

Friday: VFR with W winds G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A strengthening/gusty westerly flow will develop today between a low
tracking through SE Canada and high pressure building to the south.
This will result in SCA conditions across all waters. The western
ocean waters begin early this morning with the non ocean waters
reaching SCA conditions around noon. There is a chance that some
gusts come close to gale force on the ocean waters east of Moriches
tonight. It is likely that the SCA will need to be extended on the
the ocean waters into Tuesday night. Then there will be a brief lull
later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Some freezing spray is possible from late Mon night into Tue
night on the ocean, sound, and at the harbor entrance.

Longer term, an extended period of SCA conditions is likely mainly
for the ocean waters from Wednesday night into Friday night. Some
gusts up to 25 kt expected on the ocean Wed night with SW flow 20-25
kt, and then again Thu night on all waters as winds shift WNW after
a cold frontal passage, otherwise elevated ocean seas 5-7 ft
expected. Elevated seas 5-6 ft may be confined more to the waters E
of Fire Island Inlet Fri into Fri night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC