What's Happening In Newington

189
FXUS61 KOKX 110345
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1145 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence for showers and thunderstorms during the
late afternoon and evening hours through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat advisory remains in effect for much of the region Thursday
through Friday with hot and humid conditions expected.

2) There is a risk for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms
and localized flash flooding during the late afternoon and evening
hours through Friday.

3) Still hot but not as humid for the weekend, temperatures
cool off more early next week. Multiple chances of showers and
possible thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An upper ridge will briefly re-establish itself over the region on
Thursday and again on Friday behind any storms that move through on
Thursday evening. This will be ahead of an upper level trough, which
will support a surface low pressure system that will move through
the region on Friday night. In the warm sector of this system, 850
mb temperatures will surge toward the 20 C mark, translating to
surface temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Meanwhile, there
will be an increase in moisture across the region with dew points in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Together, this will allow for Heat Index
Values to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s for Thursday and Friday,
and the Heat Advisory remains valid for much of the area.
Temperatures and heat index values will remain muted in the lower to
mid 80s for coastal SE CT and Eastern Long Island, and these areas
will remain out of the Heat Advisory.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Airmass becomes much more unstable on Thursday with high heat
and humidity (dew points around 70). Confidence is increasing
for a complex of showers and thunderstorms to move in from the
NW during the late afternoon and evening hour. High CAPE
environment with mid level lapse rates around 6.5C will support
deep convection. Shear is marginal but may be just enough to
support cold pool maintenance. Isolated pulse severe is the main
threat with some small bowing segments possible. While
temperatures are warm aloft, deep convection will warrant a
large hail threat in addition to damaging wind gusts. SPC has a
slight risk with isolated to scattered coverage. WPC has
included the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall,
which is localized flash flood threat. High PW values around 2"
along with deep convection favor high rainfall rates. Max hourly
rainfall rate look to be about 2 inches.

Friday will feature another high CAPE, weak shear day with
evening showers and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. Expect isolated to scattered severe
thunderstorms with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.
Flash flood threat looks isolated at this time.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Still hot for the weekend with quite a few locations reaching
highs in the lower 90s but post cold front, dewpoints will be
lower. Airmass will become less humid. Heat indices max values
stay near 90 or less. Unsettled weather pattern establishes
itself, nearly zonal mid level flow. Periodic low pressure
disturbances with periodic chances of showers heading into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak warm front continues to push north of the area along
with weak disturbances tonight, and once again late Thursday.

Cigs continue to lower tonight, but confidence is decreasing for
terminals east of ISP and KBDR. FOR KISP, KBDR and KGON, IFR or
lower is still possible. Elsewhere may only lower to MVFR.
Improvements in cigs possible toward 12-13Z with VFR returning
at some point Thursday morning.

Winds again subside tonight to around 5-10kt, becoming more SW
by Thursday morning. Mainly W winds during the day Thursday with
gusts to around 20 kt at a few terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Confidence is decreasing in lowering cigs tonight. KTEB and KEWR
may stay VFR. KJFK and KLGA likely at least lower to MVFR.

Amendments more likely overnight into early Thu AM due to
flight cat changes / timing.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon-Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times with
chances of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and
evening, otherwise VFR.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR.

Sunday night: Sub VFR possible in shra /tsra.

Monday: A period of MVFR possible in shra / tsra, otherwise mainly
VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA issued for the ocean waters tonight with marginal
conditions southerly with southwest winds gusting up to 25 kt
and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Wind and seas will gradually subside
after midnight as winds weaken.

Otherwise mainly sub-SCA much of the remainder of the forecast.
There could be some potential SCA conditions returning to some
of the waters towards the end of the weekend.

Rip Currents...

For Thursday, there is a moderate rip current risk with SW
winds around 10 kt and surf around 3 ft.

For Friday, the risk is low with with SW-S winds around 10 kt
and surf heights around 2 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 11:
KEWR: 96/2000
KBDR: 93/1984
KNYC: 95/1973
KLGA: 96/1984
KJFK: 93/1984
KISP: 93/1973

June 12:
KEWR: 97/2017
KBDR: 93/2017
KNYC: 93/2017
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 91/2017


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 11:
KEWR: 77/1984
KBDR: 71/2008
KNYC: 78/1984
KLGA: 76/1973
KJFK: 76/1984
KISP: 71/1984

June 12:
KEWR: 74/1973
KBDR: 69/1973
KNYC: 76/2017
KLGA: 76/2017
KJFK: 73/1970
KISP: 70/1973

June 13:
KEWR: 74/2005
KBDR: 71/2017
KNYC: 77/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 72/2017
KISP: 70/1969

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     CTZ005>010.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ZPS/DS/DW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...ZPS/DS/DW