What's Happening In Newington

997
FXUS61 KOKX 230947
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
547 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Flood Watch has been allowed to expire at 6am this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Minor flooding impacts are still possible through this afternoon,
but no severe weather impacts are anticipated.

2. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Thursday afternoon
through the start of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front has pushed north of most of the area and a cold front
will be moving through later this morning. Lift with these
surface boundaries along with PVA shifting through aloft and
upper jet dynamics combine with moisture and modest CAPE to
continue the threat of thunderstorms and heavy downpours with
the focus shifting eastward as the day progresses. Looks like
rain amounts from this point on will be likely falling short of
flash flooding thresholds. Best chance of any flash flood would
be over New London County where over 2 inches of rain had fallen
early this morning. If any flash flood were to occur there, it
would be this afternoon when it appears that showers will become
more numerous over the region. Also, localized flash flooding
will be possible over eastern Orange County into Putnam County
before 7 or 8am this morning. Otherwise for the entire forecast
area in general, there is still a chance of primarily minor
urban/poor drainage flooding through today, but that would
appear to be the extent of impacts. Additionally, not
anticipating severe weather from this point on as CAPE and shear
will be relatively limited.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Southwest flow aloft looks to set up by late Thursday into
Friday ahead of the next shortwave/cold front. This would help
to trigger the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms.
The greatest potential still appears to be Thursday night into
Friday when the upper trough axis is currently progged to move
across the area. Additional upper disturbances look to keep the
chance for showers/storms around into the start of the weekend
as well.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front moves through late this morning into early
afternoon.

IFR and lower conds to start, improving to MVFR near noontime.
VFR becoming more probable by late in the day for most
terminals.

Showers continue throughout the day, but overall more frequent
during the afternoon. Thunderstorms still possible until mid-
afternoon for most terminals, but probability is too low for a
mention in the TAFs. Best chance of thunder will be at KSWF
until 10z.

Winds eventually shifting NW-NNW to around 10kt today. The
shift will occur mostly from mid to late morning for most
terminals. NW winds under 10kt anticipated for tonight.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing for improving flight categories may be off by a couple of
hours. VFR may arrive at least a few hours earlier than
currently indicated in TAFs.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR,

Thursday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible at night with
increasing chances of showers, becoming likely late north and
west of NYC. A chance of thunderstorms. S wind gusts 15-20 kt
afternoon into eve.

Friday-Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with showers at times.
A chance of thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts up to 20 kt
possible in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conds are expected for the next few days.

Rip Currents:

A moderate risk is expected for today and Wednesday as winds turn
offshore, but lingering 2 to 3 ft southerly swells continue.
continue.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC/JP
MARINE...JC