What's Happening In Newington

657
FXUS61 KOKX 201101
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
701 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for 12Z Aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Heat Advisory remains in effect for NYC and northeast New
Jersey as hot weather continues through this afternoon.

2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening, followed by lingering showers tonight into
early Thursday.

3) Unsettled with periods of showers expected for the upcoming
holiday weekend along with a much cooler airmass over the region.

4) Cold water safety concerns continue today with good boating
weather early in the day, and water temperatures still in the 50s.s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
No changes were made to the heat advisory for the
NYC metro and NE NJ which remains in effect until 8pm.

One last hot day is expected today as the region remains on the NW
periphery of western Atlantic ridging. Temperatures should end up a
few degrees lower compared to Tuesday in the warmest spots, but
still will reach the low to potentially mid 90s in NE NJ and
portions of the NYC metro away from the Atlantic coast.
Elsewhere, highs will reach the mid to upper 80s except for 70s
to low 80s closest to the coast. Followed the same trend as
recent days and blended in some of MAV/MET guidance along with
the 10th percentile of the NBM, since the NBM deterministic
continues to run too hot. This is especially true for locations
more impacted by a bit more onshore flow.

Max heat indices will reach the mid 90s in the Advisory area and
generally the upper 80s to low 90s for other locations away from the
immediate coast.

Temperatures and heat indices may drop significantly in the mid to
late afternoon if showers and thunderstorms develop. There is a
chance the Advisory will be cancelled sooner than 8pm if this
scenario were to occur.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and
evening. The front will serve as a mechanism to develop showers
along with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening. SPC has continued to outline a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms across the southern two-thirds of the region. A
few of the storms may become severe with damaging wind gusts the
main threat. Timing for the severe thunderstorm potential
continues to be from 2pm-8pm.

The latest CAMs are still offering varying coverage of convective
development with some just showing isolated coverage with others
scattered to a bit more numerous. The cold front will provide
convergence along with falling heights aloft. Strong heating
today should provide enough instability to promote convective
development, first early this afternoon for the interior and
then the rest of the area by mid to late afternoon. Lingering
convection may still impact portions of the coast this evening
as the front sags south across the area.

While brief heavy downpours are possible in any shower or
thunderstorm, quick storm motion will mitigate the potential for
anything more than nuisance flooding.

Showers will likely linger the first half of the night near the
coast as the front works offshore. There may also be some
redevelopment of showers late tonight into early Thursday morning as
a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front. The low
pressure is tied to a passing jet streak to our north,
associated with a broad trough over Northern New England and
southeast Canada. There is still some uncertainty with this
feature as some of the model guidance keeps the showers just
south of Long Island.

Conditions should dry out Thursday afternoon, but lingering cloud
cover may persist through much of the day. Best chance for some
clearing looks to be well northwest of the NYC metro.

Daytime temperatures on Thursday will only be in the 60s, 20-30
degrees cooler than Wednesday.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The end of the week will remain dry and much cooler. The dry
period will be short-lived as unsettled weather with periods of
showers looks likely for the upcoming holiday weekend. The
frontal boundary that moves through today/Wednesday will remain
to our south with multiple disturbances/waves of low pressure
moving along it through the weekend. Moisture from these systems
will overrun high pressure to our north and east.

The main challenge for this period is timing when the most
widespread shower activity will occur. The highest probabilities
currently are from late Friday through early Sunday. However, there
is still some uncertainty, especially if the surface ridging from
the high is stronger. This would help suppress the showers a bit
further south, with at least the northern half of the region seeing
less rainfall. Chances for showers continue late Sunday into
Memorial Day as additional energy may pass to west or northwest.

Otherwise, will remain mostly cloudy through the weekend with
temperatures likely running below normal for late May in the low to
mid 60s. Nighttime temperatures should be in the 50s. The frontal
boundary may get pushed further south by next Tuesday, which could
help lower any chance for showers.


.KEY MESSAGE 4...
One last day of cold water safety concerns due to another day of
hot air temperatures. The cold water temperatures can quickly
cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly
immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes
or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to
avoid this threat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold frontal passage occurs this aftn and eve. High pres
builds N of the area on Thu.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 16-18Z. Scattered
showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop
after 16Z, with the best chance from 20-00Z. Kept TSRA chances
in a PROB30 at this time as confidence in the coverage of TSRA
remains uncertain. If a thunderstorm does occur, it could be
strong to severe with brief strong gusty winds up to possibly 40
to 50 kt. MVFR or lower conditions possible in any TSRA.

Aft the fropa, CIGS lower to around 4000ft overnight with the
potential for additional shwrs. Confidence in shwrs is low so
they have not been included in the TAFs. CIGS likely lower
further on Thu to MVFR.

WSW winds this mrng, with some variability early, becoming NW
this afternoon and evening aft the fropa. The flow veers further
to the NE aft 8-9Z Thu. Wind speeds generally around 10-15 kt
much of the TAF period with gusts to near 20 kt this afternoon.


  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some variability in wind direction possible thru 14Z due to lgt
flow, especially JFK where sea breeze flow near 180 true is
possible.

Amendments possible to refine timing/coverage of showers and
tstms today.

MVFR CIGS possible aft 00Z Thu, but the probability was too low
to include in the TAFs attm.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions possible early for coastal
terminals and NYC terminals at times with a chance of showers.
Mainly VFR thereafter.

Friday: Possible showers and MVFR conditions. Chances of showers
increase late day into night. Showers become likely at night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower with chances of showers. NE wind gusts
15-20 kt during the day.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters
through early this evening. Winds will likely be marginal and
overall below 25 kt, but there still may be a few gusts
nearshore around 25 kt. Seas should build to 5-6 ft, especially
east of Fire Island Inlet. 5 ft seas could linger east of
Moriches Inlet into the evening, so have extended the SCA for
these waters until 11 pm.

In addition to the elevated seas and marginally gusty winds, a
cold frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
evening will bring with it the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms with gusts in excess of 35 kt.

Conditions tonight through Friday are expected to remain below
SCA levels with a cold front south of the waters. The next
chance for SCA conditions will be this weekend as several waves
of low pressure pass along the cold front to our south.

One last day of cold water safety concerns due to another day of
hot air temperatures. The cold water temperatures can quickly
cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly
immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes
or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to
avoid this threat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20:
KEWR: 72/1996
KBDR: 61/2019
KNYC: 74/1996
KLGA: 77/1996
KJFK: 63/1996
KISP: 62/1996

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JMC/MW
MARINE...DS