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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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199
FXUS61 KOKX 180943
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
543 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added patchy fog and increased PoPs through the early morning
hours over western portions of the area due to ongoing light to
moderate showers.
Potential for periods of high risk of rip currents today,
especially during the mid to late afternoon with the outgoing
tide.
Added slight chance PoPs for this afternoon with potential for
isolated moderate rain showers.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential for periods of rain Thursday through the weekend.
Impacts appear to be limited at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Once a cold front pushes through Wednesday night, it will stall
over or near the area through the weekend. Shortwave energy
pivoting through the base of a longwave trough will likely
generate multiple waves of low pressure that will move along the
stalled front. Exact location of this front will determine
timing, location and amount of rainfall.
General consensus from latest guidance has the front placed offshore
through much of this period, but there is still a good amount of
uncertainty. A very large spread exists in the latest NBM QPF
percentiles. Looking at 10th and 90th percentiles for multiple 24
hour periods Thursday through Monday, the 10th percentile is
completely dry each period while the 90th percentile maxes out
with the 24 hour period ending 00z Sunday with 1.5 to 2.5
inches across the area. The wetter solution could potentially
bring periods of heavy rain and in turn a flooding threat, but
this is a low probability at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak low pressure continues to move farther east of the region
with weak troughing remaining over the region.
All the TAF sites are either VFR or MVFR, however IFR or lower
conditions are being observed at some of the nearby observations
close to the TAF sites, especially across portions of CT. So
will continue to keep TEMPOs in for IFR or lower at some of the
TAF sites through 12z or so.
The low stratus is expected to hang around through the morning,
with gradually improvement through the morning. Conditions
should return to VFR by early afternoon, however it may take
longer across the terminals east of NYC.
Can not rule out a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm this
afternoon, but confidence too low to include in the TAF at this
time.
Winds will be from the NE less than 10 kts with some locations
becoming more light and variable this morning. Sea breezes
develop late this morning and this afternoon with most
terminals getting more southerly winds except for KHPN and KSWF
where more northerly to northwest flow is forecast.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence flight category forecast this morning.
Timing of sea breeze today could be a few hours off.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Low probability for a brief shower with
MVFR possible early.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower at
times.
Friday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.
Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient will lead to sub-SCA conditions through
the weekend.
Rip Currents: While winds will be light today, a lingering 3 ft 7s
swell will continue, directed perpendicular to the coast. Sticking
with the moderate risk, but there is potential for periods of a high
risk, especially in the mid to late afternoon with the outgoing
tide. Will continue to monitor observed swell at area buoys. A
higher wave height or period than forecast may result in an upgrade
to a high risk. A low risk is then expected on Wednesday with
continued light winds and a weakening swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JT
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