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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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432 FXUS61 KOKX 150029 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 729 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Guidance continues to fluctuate with snowfall amounts as the forecast area will reside on the northern periphery of a storm moving off the Carolina coast Sunday night. A light snow accumulation is still likely, especially across the NY/NJ metro and Long Island. Winter headlines could be needed for a portion of the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Guidance continues to support a light accumulating snow. The best chance will be across Long Island and the NYC/NJ metro. 2) Progressive low pressure systems will bring rain/snow/mixed precip chances mid to late next week. Predictability details remain low at this point. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Beginning mainly with last night`s NWP guidance a trend further north started to take place. Unfortunately there remains a good amount of spread in liquid amounts, and thus snowfall accumulations. Also much of the guidance has a tight gradient of QPF draped across the southern half of the area. The consensus of the guidance suggests a light accumulating snowfall (under 3 inches) for the southern 2/3rds of the area, with amounts around an inch or less across most northern sections. This is a difficult forecast because even if the trend further north continues, there is the possibility of lower snow to liquid ratios, and perhaps rain mixing in with snow across southern portions of the area where the maximum QPF / liquid equivalent amounts are currently forecast. With consensus of the guidance suggesting mainly a quarter inch of QPF or less have opted to not issue headlines and winter weather advisories just yet. This is because the trend further north could cease, or even if it does continue an introduction of a wintry mix / rain could get into the aforementioned areas. Therefore at this point in time look for some slick roadways late Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Monday morning travel may be impacted with some snow or slushy covered roads. Unlike the previous snowfall temperatures have warmed, and thus the snow that falls may not stick initially, especially on the main roadways. There is still large uncertainty around the max intensity of any snowfall, along with any moderate snow duration and potential snowfall accumulation. In any event, any accumulation would be more prevalent on non-cement / non-paved surfaces. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A warm front is progged to approach on Wed, then remain nearby into late week. Continue to carry 50-60 PoP Wed afternoon/night per NBM. Forecast uncertainty increases further beyond that, so chance PoP continues into Friday. There may be higher coverage of wintry precip inland and across eastern Long Island with the second system toward the tail end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds across the area tonight and then gradually retreats to the northeast on Sunday. Low pressure will pass south of the terminals late Sunday night into Monday. VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower at the 30h TAF sites in light snow Sunday night. Best chance will be at the coastal terminals. There is some uncertainty with the extent and timing of the snow as the forecast area resides on the northern periphery of a storm system that will move off the Carolina coast Sunday night. Amounts look light at this time. Winds will become light and variable overnight, then N/NE at less than 10 kt Sunday morning, veering around to the E in the afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments unlikely through 00Z Monday, then become likely with timing of snow. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday night and Monday: MVFR or lower into Monday morning, with snow likely for at least NYC metro/LI terminals. Light accumulation possible. The snow will end by 12Z Monday. Tuesday: VFR. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible. Rain/snow mix possible, especially inland, Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thursday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure will be centered south of the waters through tonight, with another high centered north of the waters on Sunday. This will result in sub advisory conditions and mainly 2 to 3 ft ocean seas through the Sunday evening. An offshore low will pass south and east late Sunday night into Monday morning with marginal small craft conditions possible for the far eastern ocean waters later in the day Monday, with more widespread 5 to 6 ft seas likely into Monday night. This should result in small craft conditions across much, if not all of the ocean waters Monday night into Tuesday. Marginal small craft seas may linger into Tuesday night, and through Wednesday-Thursday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE/Goodman/DW AVIATION...DW MARINE...JE/Goodman |
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NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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