NewingtonWeather.COM

353
FXUS61 KOKX 050305
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1105 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended the Small Craft Advisory for the ocean overnight until
06z.

Issued another Small Craft Advisory for all waters Mon into Mon
night.

Lowered temps Mon night and Tue night, with upper 30s and some
patchy frost possible well inland both nights.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A dry period of weather ahead with the coolest conditions
Monday night into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Rain with a weak low offshore will pull off further to the east
and ends overnight for all. High pressure dominates the weather
pattern through the rest of the forecast period with dry
weather expected. Monday will be a bit breezy as the high builds
into the area and temperatures end up close to normal. The
coolest airmass of this fall will advect into the area Monday
night into Tuesday and then remain in place into Wednesday. Lows
Monday night will fall to near 50 in NYC, the 40s most
elsewhere, and the upper 30s well north/west with some patchy
frost possible. Temps Tue night could fall to the upper 30s
across a greater portion of the interior and in the Long Island
Pine Barrens. High temps on Tue should only make it to the upper
50s across interior S CT and the lower 60s elsewhere.

Temperatures will moderate closer to normal later this week,
with temps a few degrees above normal expected on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak low pressure passes to the east and well out to sea overnight.
High pressure builds into the area on Monday.

Intermittent light rain has ended with MVFR at mainly some of the
terminals until about 05-06z. VFR is then expected to prevail
thereafter. A few pockets of MVFR ceilings may persist
until about 10-11z, although this is currently not reflected in TAFs,
but amendments may be need before and up to the time of the morning
push. VFR prevails Monday into Monday evening.

The winds become more NW and light overnight into the morning.
Wind speeds mainly around or under 5-6 kt, then quickly increase
after 12z, becoming around 15 kt with gusts around 25 kt towards late
morning. Some peak gusts in the afternoon up to 30 kt are likely
towards and just after 18z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for pockets of MVFR at times until the start of
the AM push.

Start time of gusts Monday may be off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR. NW winds decrease during the evening. Winds mainly
at or just under 10 kt overnight at most terminals.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible mainly E of KBDR/KISP.

Wednesday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA has been extended for the ocean waters til 2 AM for seas
lingering around 5 ft. Another SCA has been issued for all near
shore waters Mon into Mon night for NW winds gusting to 25-30
kt (highest on the ocean) and ocean seas again reaching 5 ft.
Gusts to 25 kt should linger into part of Tue morning on the
ernmost waters. Relatively tranquil conditions expected
thereafter through Fri.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ331-335-340-345-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ332-350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE/Goodman
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/Goodman