What's Happening In Newington

262
FXUS61 KOKX 111941
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
341 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with the latest forecast. A Small Craft
Advisory on the ocean was extended through Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong frontal system will impact the area late Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday with showers, and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm. Mixed rain/snow possible before ending Thursday
afternoon.

2) A strong frontal system will impact the area late Sunday
through Monday Night. Unseasonably cold air to follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Approaching shortwave energy ahead of a deepening frontal
system was bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms to across
upstate New York and into eastern Pennsylvania. As the upper
trough moves slowly eastward and a pre-frontal trough  moves
into the area this evening chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms increase. Best chances for thunderstorms will be
across the inland areas with better elevated CAPE, and a little
surface CAPE. Farther east, across the coastal areas only
elevated CAPE is forecast, and CAMs diminish convection as the
line moves across western Connecticut and east of NYC. Guidance
quickly diminishes the CAPE around 06Z Thursday, and CAMs also
weaken/end convection.

The upper trough is slow to move east Thursday as downstream
upper ridging remains over the western Atlantic. The surface
cold front moves through late tonight and through Thursday
morning, and chances for showers will remain. With some colder
air moving into the area snow may mix with rain before the
precipitation ends late Thursday afternoon. The unusual warm
weather comes to an end Thursday night through Friday night as
temperatures return to seasonal normal levels.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Global models are in good overall agreement with carving out a
high amplitude upper trough across the Plains into the
Mississippi Valley Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a rapidly
deepening low will track northeast from the central Plains
Sunday, across the Great Lakes Sunday night, and into eastern
Canada on Monday. The associated warm front will lift through
the area Sunday, relatively inactive with a low chance of
precipitation. Some snow will be possible at the onset. A strong
southerly LLJ will then aid in what looks to be a moderate to
heavy warm conveyor belt rainfall along the eastern seaboard
Sunday night into Monday. 13Z NBM probabilities for an inch or
more of rainfall are about 30 to 50 percent. 00Z LREF (blend of
EPS, GEPs, and GEFs) probabilities are a bit lower. This will
ultimately be determined by the progression of the system. There
clearly is the potential for higher rainfall amounts. Latest
12Z operational GFS and Canadian show strong support for an inch
or more.

In addition, with the aforementioned strong LLJ, NBM
probabilities for 24h max wind gust >= 45 mph (wind advisory
level gusts) are 30 to 50 percent at the coast. At this time of
year, due to the cold waters and strong warm advection, a strong
inversion will likely be in place. This will impede the amount
of momentum transfer to the surface.

Warm sector high temperatures on Monday are forecast to get
well into the 50s to lower 60s away from the immediate coast.
Following the cold frontal passage, it will get much colder with
highs struggling to get out of the 30s with lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front approaches tngt and passes Thu mrng.

Mainly VFR thru this eve, then MVFR or lower possible thru Thu.
A few shwrs possible late this aftn, with tstm also possible
invof SWF, then additional shwrs possible overnight with the
cold fropa. There is a chance for additional embedded tstms
tngt, but the probability was too low based on the latest
modeling to keep in the TAFs. Lingering light rain is possible
thru the day on Thu behind the front, with the possibility of a
changeover to RASN or even all snow at times in the aftn.

LLWS can be expected tngt ahead of the cold front.

S winds veer a bit to the SSW tngt. There could be ocnl gusts
thru the overnight with strong winds aloft. Winds shift to
around 300 true behind the cold front, with gusts around 25kt
likely thru Thu. There could be a few higher wind gusts to
around 30kt right behind the fropa.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Variability in wind direction possible into this eve.

Amendments possible thru this eve for timing and coverage of
shwrs. There is a low chance for embedded tstms overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Rest of Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with a mix of rain and
snow, especially inland, becoming VFR aft 00Z. NW winds gusting
to around 25kt.

Friday: VFR with S winds 25-25kt. Gusts around 30kt possible at
the coasts.

Saturday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower likely with rain. LLWS
possible.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Dense fog on the eastern ocean and Long Island Sound waters is
no longer expected tonight as visible satellite showing the
area of stratus tracking east of the waters Wednesday afternoon.

An increased S/SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front is
expected to bring SCA conditions to the ocean and the Long
Island South shore bays by tonight as gusts have increased to
near 25 kt Wednesday afternoon. In additions ocean seas will
build to SCA levels tonight.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely on all the forecast
waters Thursday as winds shift to the northwest behind a cold
front that moves east of the waters Thursday morning. Gusts
rather quickly diminish on the noon ocean waters Thursday
afternoon, and into the evening on the ocean waters. Seas will
be slow to subside on the ocean so the SCA was extended through
Thursday night.

An increasing southerly flow ahead of the next frontal system
Friday will likely produce SCA gusts on all the waters late
Friday into Friday night, and another SCA may be needed.

Marginal gale force gusts will be possible in a westerly flow
on Saturday. Highest chance will be on the ocean waters. Blended
NBM with NBM90, but based on the 12Z GFS, these gusts could be
underdone. Weak high pressure briefly follows. A strong frontal
system will then impact the area Sunday night into Monday with a
southerly gale possible on all waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are daily record temperatures for Wednesday March 11:

Record High Temperatures:

March 11:
KEWR: 75/2021
KBDR: 67/1977
KNYC: 73/1977
KLGA: 70/1977
KJFK: 68/2016
KISP: 68/1977

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 11:
KEWR: 48/2016
KBDR: 45/2016
KNYC: 50/1977
KLGA: 49/2016
KJFK: 50/2016
KISP: 45/2016

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-
     335-340.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ332-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MET/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MET/DW