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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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316 FXUS61 KOKX 022351 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 751 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The high rip current risk has will expire at 8 pm this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected late tonight into early Thursday morning, followed by a another chance Thursday afternoon and evening. 2) Mainly dry, seasonably cool conditions are forecast for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Remnants of a convective complex will continue diminishing this afternoon as it encounters a much more stable environment east of the Hudson River. Lingering showers are possible across the Lower Hudson Valley into SW CT and potentially western Long Island/ NYC metro. Other than a locally heavy downpour, the showers should be light to moderate. Otherwise, it will be mainly dry into this evening as the frontal boundary will remain stalled over the Middle Atlantic up into western PA and western NY. Low pressure tracking over eastern Canada in combination with a belt of strong westerlies will help lift the warm front towards the area late tonight into early Thursday morning. Another convective complex is likely to develop within the westerly flow near the eastern Great Lakes this evening into tonight before tracking towards the region overnight into early Thursday. Confidence is high that the remnants of this system will move across the area bringing showers. There will also be some embedded thunderstorms, but confidence in the coverage of storms is lower. There will be increasing elevated instability, but the boundary layer will likely remain stable. SPC continues to maintain a marginal risk, mainly west of the NYC metro for the remainder of its Day 1 outlook through day break Thursday morning. Think the risk for a severe thunderstorm is very low tonight with the low levels slow to destabilize. Modest westerly flow should keep the showers moving fairly quickly limiting the flooding threat. Minor urban and poor drainage is primary concern. The warm front will lift north of the region into Thursday afternoon. This will allow for much warmer temperatures and higher dew points/humidity levels to push back into the region. Temperatures will likely rise into the 80s, potentially as high as the upper 80s in NE NJ, Thursday afternoon. A trailing cold front is expected to move across the area late in the afternoon and evening. Uncertainty remains with potential convective development as forecast soundings are indicating a fairly strong capping inversion in the mid levels. Forcing with the cold front is weak and the region may be left in subsidence behind the departing complex earlier in the day. These factors will likely limit any convective development. Will maintain a chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day/early evening with this update. Currently SPC keeps any severe risk south of our area, but an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled especially if the capping can be eroded. Any isolated/scattered convection in the early evening should diminish after sunset with loss of heating. Similar to earlier in the day, any flood threat looks very marginal and primarily minor urban/poor drainage. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The cold front will be south of the area on Friday. A W-NW flow will help boost temperatures into the lower 80s for most and potentially mid 80s in the warmest spots. Model consensus PoPs indicate a slight chance of a shower Friday afternoon as another shortwave rounds the base of the upper trough. Instability and forcing look to pass to our southwest, but a passing shower cannot be ruled out for the southern half of the area. The air mass becomes much cooler and drier Friday night into the holiday weekend. Temperatures will be close to normal on Saturday, then slightly below normal for Sunday. There may be a slight warming trend on Labor Day. Less humid conditions are also forecast for the holiday weekend. Mainly dry conditions may prevail into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A warm front approaches tonight and passes through during the first half of Thursday morning. A trailing cold front follows Thursday evening. All terminals expected to lower to IFR tonight. Improvement to MVFR Thursday morning, then VFR Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms possible late tonight, potentially impacting the early portion of the Thursday morning push. Another round of thunderstorms possible during the second half of Thursday afternoon. ESE winds under 10kt backing more SE this evening, then S to SW later tonight. SW winds increase 10-15kt by late Thursday morning. Occasional gusts 16-20kt possible mainly in the afternoon. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Might need to upgrade TSTM PROB30s to TEMPOs or prevailing late tonight. Showers during the Thursday morning push probably end a couple of hours earlier than shown in TAFs. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday night: VFR. MVFR in a showers/thunderstorm possible early. Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR in afternoon showers. Saturday through Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Seas around 4 ft will continue on the ocean through this evening, but should slowly to around 3 ft into Thursday as swells diminish. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through the upcoming holiday weekend. A 2-3 ft E/SE swell on Thursday combined with a southerly flow at 10-15kt will keep a moderate risk in place. The swell diminishes for Friday, and with winds out of the NW to W at 10 kt or less providing little additional energy for rip current development, the rip current risk for Friday is low. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/DS AVIATION...JC/JT MARINE...DS |
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NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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