What's Happening In Newington

544
FXUS61 KOKX 292315
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
615 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area moves off the New England coast
through tonight. A frontal system moves across the region Sunday
into Sunday night. High pressure briefly builds on Monday
before quickly giving way to developing low pressure over the
southern states.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tonight will be dry as high pressure centered over the region
moves off the New England coast through tonight. Meanwhile, a
low pressure system will be moving out of the central plains
states and into the Great Lakes region, and is associated with
northern stream energy and a longwave trough. Temperatures will
drop off quickly early tonight as winds become light and
variable with mostly clear conditions. However, by the overnight
temperatures will likely hold nearly steady, or even rise a few
degrees especially along the coast, as warm advection develops
with a warm front approaching to the southwest, and clouds
increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm air advection increases into Sunday morning as the warm
front nears the southern portions of the region, and possibly
moves into the coastal region Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the
surface low will be moving into the eastern Great Lakes region
and into southern Canada. The upper trough will be rather flat
and progressive across the northeast. This will bring a cold
front quickly across the region late day Sunday into Sunday
evening. Precipitation develops by late Sunday morning, and will
be mainly rain, with a brief start of snow and snow mixed with
rain across far western portions of Orange County and Western
Passaic County as the warm air will not be reaching into the
interior as the low begins to occlude. Precipitation will be
generally light, but there may be a brief period of moderate
rainfall along the coast where the strongest lift will be
located.

Near zonal flow will continue across the eastern half of the
country Monday and will allow the next northern stream
amplifying trough to move out of the Pacific northwest and into
the central plains early Monday. Meanwhile, surface high builds
into the region late Sunday night into Monday morning, and with
the progressive flow, moves quickly offshore Monday night.

The deep upper trough will bring the surface low out of the
southeastern states late Monday night with a chance of
precipitation across the region toward Tuesday morning. Enough
low level warm air will be across the coastal regions for the
precipitation to the all rain, however in the overrunning
precipitation shield a rain/snow mix band will be possible, with
even some sleet at times, while the farther inland areas will
likely begin as all snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* A coastal low will pass south and east of the area on Tuesday,
  likely bringing the first accumulating snowfall to the area.
  Confidence is higher across the interior Lower Hudson Valley where
  an Advisory level (3-5 inch) or higher snowfall is possible.
  Uncertainty in snowfall totals remains farther south, especially
  along the coast.

* About 10 degrees below normal for high temperatures through the
  entire long term period.

At the start of the period, low pressure will be moving up the
southeast coast as a shortwave approaches from the west. By
Tuesday afternoon, secondary low pressure will be deepening along
the Mid- Atlantic coast as it aims to pass south and east of the
area. Decent model spread remains with the track of the low. Some
notable trends:
past several runs of the GFS and GEFS have very gradually trended
southeastward (colder), the ECMWF remains the farthest southeast and
coldest and the NAM and Canadian bring the low right over Long
Island (warmest). Additionally, the NBM probability in snow amounts
have been gradually increasing. Leaning away from the NAM and
Canadian solutions, especially given the latest Canadian ensemble
still has a cluster of members well offshore. Current ptype and snow
accumulation forecast reflects this thinking.

As mentioned, confidence in snow highest across the interior of
the Lower Hudson Valley. Although a quick hitting storm, latest
deterministic guidance came in with higher QPF totals than the
latest NBM. This yielded snow amounts in Orange County, Putnam and
western Passaic at Advisory levels. For CT and the rest of NJ and
the Lower Hudson Valley amounts look to be closer to an inch or
two. This area is where the largest uncertainty is. Closer to the
coast confidence is higher in mainly rain (especially eastern Long
Island), while some periods of snow and even a few tenths can not
be ruled out.

At this time, winds do not look to be a concern with this system.
However, the NAM`s trend will have to be watched as it currently
has a very strong LLJ moving over the area (80kts at 925mb).

High pressure builds in behind the departing low on Wednesday and
will remain in control through the rest of the week aside from a
cold frontal passage on Thursday. This is expected to be a dry
frontal passage.

Next weekend there is potential for another system to impact the
area, but at this time there is too much uncertainty for specifics
on rain/snow and stuck close to the NBM during that period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore tonight followed by a frontal
system passing through the terminals on Sunday.

VFR through tonight. MVFR/IFR conditions in light rain
developing during the late morning and early afternoon hours
Sunday. VFR conditions may return after 00-03Z Monday.

NW winds diminish and become light and variable for a time
overnight before becoming SE/S toward daybreak. S winds increase
to 10-15kt with G20kt by late morning/early afternoon Sunday.
Winds then become westerly late Sunday after the frontal
passage.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds for a time this evening into the overnight may be light
northerly/northeasterly.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon/Night: Rain with MVFR/IFR conditions in the
afternoon/early evening. S winds G20-25kt, highest near the coast.
Improving to VFR after 00Z. Winds becoming W G15-20kt.

Monday: VFR. NW G15-20kt, mainly in the morning.

Tuesday: MVFR expected in the morning, IFR possible in the
afternoon/evening. Precip type mainly snow at KSWF. Rain and/or snow
at the onset at the other terminals, changing to rain in the
morning. Winds become N in the afternoon with G15-25kt, highest at
the coastal terminals.

Wednesday: VFR. NW G15-20kt early.

Thursday: VFR. WSW G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure over the waters, and moves off the New
England coast tonight, winds and seas remain below advisory
levels across the forecast waters into early Sunday morning. A
increasing southerly flow ahead of the next rapidly approaching
frontal system Sunday will increase winds with ocean seas
building and SCA conditions will develop by late Sunday morning
on the ocean, south shore bays, and the far eastern Long Island
Sound. There is some uncertainty with the strength of the gusts
on the ocean waters with warm air moving over the colder waters.
A SCA will be in effect for the above mentioned waters late
Sunday morning, running through 100 AM EST Monday for the Sound
and southern bays, and at least through Sunday night on the
ocean. Small craft conditions may continue into Monday morning
before falling below by midday as high pressure builds back into
the region. Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels
through Monday night.

Winds and seas increase through the day on Tuesday with the
passage of an offshore low pressure system. By the afternoon, SCA
wind gusts are likely on the ocean waters by the afternoon, and by
the evening for the non-ocean waters. There may also be a brief
period Tuesday night with gusts reaching gale criteria.
Additionally, current wind forecast has seas reaching 5 to 8 feet
for the ocean waters. It is worth noting that there is some
uncertainty given the nature of the system. A small change in
forecast track of the offshore low could cause a larger change in
forecast winds than usual.

The system pull away on Wednesday and winds and seas gradually
lower, likely falling below SCA criteria by Wednesday afternoon. The
next shot at SCA criteria will be with a cold frontal passage on
Thursday and then again next weekend with another area of low
pressure potentially impacting the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ332-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT