What's Happening In Newington

100
FXUS61 KOKX 110044
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
744 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Warning issued for the ocean waters, otherwise no
significant changes with this update.

Added potential for scattered snow showers late Sun aft/early
Sun eve with cold frontal passage.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Moderate rain through the first half of tonight.

2) Gusty west-northwest winds develop Sunday afternoon and
continue into Sunday night. Scattered snow showers possible late
Sun afternoon/early eve, with low probability of a snow squall
well N&W of NYC.

3) Cold front arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday
bringing a return to cold temperatures.

4) Forecast uncertainty remains high Wednesday night through
Friday around coastal low development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Leading edge of rain associated with a warm frontal wave will
overspread the area from south to north the next couple of
hours. Expect moderate to occasionally heavy rain for about
a 6 hour period, moving east of LI and SE CT during the early
morning hours Sunday. A strong SW LLJ providing the primary
forcing will pass near or just southeast of LI, where the
heaviest rain will fall. There has been a slight uptick in
rainfall with the 12Z guidance, largely do to a northward shift
of the boundary and aforementioned LLJ. CAMs even showing some
convective elements this evening as the warm front draws close.
Not sufficient for the mention of thunder, but perhaps some
brief heavy rainfall. Expect around an inch across LI, lowering
to about 0.4-0.5" inland. NBM probabilities for an inch or more
40-70% along the coast (highest across eastern LI).

Temperatures may fall bit this evening, then hold steady or
rise, especially at the coast where the warm front will approach
(possibly even getting onshore for LI). Cold frontal passage
toward daybreak will allow readings to fall a bit. Lows will
range from the upper 30s inland to the lower 40s at the coast.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Low pressure deepening along the New England coast Sunday afternoon
and night will allow for WNW winds to ramp up. Strongest winds
expected Sunday night with a tightening pressure gradient and
cold advection. Top of the mixed later gets close to 50 kt with
30-35kt average in the layer. Expect gusts 35 to 40 mph with a
few higher gusts possible. Used NBM 90th percentile during this
time. This could even be a bit underdone. It`s a bit tricky
during the nighttime as to how much momentum will be transferred
to the surface. Temperatures return closer to normal in the 20s
to lower 30s.

Strong shortwave/secondary cold frontal passage will bring
potential for scattered snow showers as it moves across late
aft/early eve. CAMs in pretty good agreement with potential for
a broken line of snow squalls moving east through PA/central NY
in the afternoon, with potential for it to survive into areas
west of the Hudson, before downslope conditions likely further
break-up the line as it tracks farther east. Outside of hill
territory well N&W of NYC, temperatures appear warm enough
ahead of the front, and with a gradual enough caa in wake, to
preclude flash freeze potential.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A cold front representing the leading edge of a polar air mass
will approach for mid week. With a pacific air mass remaining in
place preceding the arrival of the cold front, expect above
normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday with the slight
chance of some showers in the form of rain.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Towards Wednesday night into early Thursday the longwave
pattern amplifies as the ridge out west sharpens, and the trough
in the east amplifies in turn. This amplification is supported
by the consensus of global NWP and AI guidance. At this time it
is difficult to time the wave packets, and thus the timing,
position and strength of storm development. Much of the guidance
is suggesting the frontal boundary slowing and the development
of low pressure with the amplification of the pattern with the
upper level flow becoming more or less parallel to the front.
Suffice it to say there remains a chance of precipitation, with
precipitation type remaining uncertain during this time frame.
Therefore impacts are not known at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warm front approaches tonight with surface low tracking over
eastern terminals during the midnight hours, followed by a cold
frontal late tonight. Secondary cold frontal passage expected
late Sun aft/early eve.

IFR/LIFR conditions expected through late tonight. Moderate to
locally heavy rain across eastern terminals through around
midnight. Thereafter, low stratus, drizzle, and patchy fog
interspersed with scattered bands of rain showers through
around 09z. Low prob of a rumble of thunders for KISP/KGON.

Gradual improvement to MVFR likely from w to e through the
morning push for all but eastern terminals. VFR expected for
the NYC terminals by 15Z, Outlying terminals may take longer to
improve.

E/ENE winds 10-15g20kt thru late evening for coastal terminals,
becoming light W/VRB by around midnight. Flow picks up to 5 to
10kt out of the W behind cold frontal passage towards daybreak
for NYC/NJ terminals, increasing to 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25kt
by late morning/early afternoon.

Secondary cold frontal passage in the late aft/eve will result
in an increase in W/NW winds 15-20g25-35kt for eve push.
Scattered snow showers with brief MVFR/IFR conds possible with
fropa during the early eve push.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

IFR/LIFR conditions with E/NE gusts to 20 kt likely thru eve
push.

Timing of improvement to MVFR during the Sun morning push may
be off by 1-2 hours.

Scattered snow showers with brief MVFR/IFR conds possible with
fropa during the early eve push. Gusts to 35 kt possible for
the Sun eve push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: VFR, except for isolated SHSN early. W/NW winds
G25-35kt, gradually diminishing late.

Monday: VFR. WNW wind G20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain showers.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain or snow showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warning in effect for the ocean waters Sunday night with a
Gale Watch elsewhere.

East winds ahead of frontal wave this evening will produce
marginal SCA condition on the ocean waters this evening. Winds
may fall off for a time as they switch around to the the W/SW
around or shortly after midnight. However, a southerly swell
will continue to build seas across the waters into Sunday. West
wind strengthen Sunday with gale force gusts likely on the ocean
waters Sunday night. Confidence is lower for the non-ocean
waters, where a Gale Watch remains up. Marginal SCA conditions
likely continue Monday into Monday night.

Small craft conditions are likely on the ocean waters for much of
the second half of next week. SCA conditions will be possible at
times on the non-ocean waters, with the best chance Tuesday night
into Wednesday. A coastal low may impact the waters late in the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC/DW/NV
AVIATION...NV/MW
MARINE...BC/DW