NewingtonWeather.COM

963
FXUS61 KOKX 290521
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
121 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 6Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable this weekend.

2) Turning unsettled Monday through Wednesday of next week. There is
the potential for impacts, but confidence of impacts remains low
this far out in time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A stalled frontal boundary which has remained nearby and over the
area does progress further east during tonight. Cyclonic curvature
aloft gradually decreases with heights rising slightly into the
start of the weekend. This will lead to much improved sensible wx
and more comfortable conditions with lower humidity levels for
the weekend. Temperatures will be right at seasonable levels tonight
through the day Sunday. Once the region gets more on the back side
of high pressure humidity levels will begin to inch up later in
the day Sunday and into Sunday night.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A mid and upper level ridge sets up to the west-southwest late this
weekend and into Monday. A frontal boundary which lifts into the
Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes will begin to ride along the
northern periphery of the ridge. As the ridge works east into
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week there appears to be good
Global NWP and AI agreement with the mid level mass fields. It
appears that our area will remain on the northern periphery of upper
level ridging. This should allow the warm front to progress east and
likely just to the north or on the northern edge of the CWA into
Tuesday and Wednesday. Which has often been the case this warm
season thus far, the area will get into some instability immediately
south of the warm / stationary boundary, but our area should remain
close enough to boundary to allow a good amount of synoptic scale /
mid level forcing. This suggests a period of unsettled wx with the
potential for some periods of convectively induced rainfall. While
there remains forecast uncertainty this far out, it appears the
region will have the potential for convectively induced heavy rain
and embedded t-storm activity. WPC currently has the area under a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall Monday and Tuesday, with SPC
having a 15 percent chance of severe weather on Wednesday which is
rare to see that far out in time. So the middle of next week will
bear watching as PWATs are progged to climb into the 2 inch
neighborhood by Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in thru Saturday.

VFR thru the TAF period.

Northerly flow 10kt or less into early Saturday. More southerly
flow expected to develop Saturday afternoon with sea breezes
with wind speeds under 10 kt. Speeds diminish after 00Z Sun
with winds veering to the SW. Many outlying TAF sites go light
and variable Saturday night.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers afternoon
into night. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers. A slight
chance of a thunderstorm.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with showers likely. A
chance of thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions prevail this weekend and into early next
week with ocean seas ranging from 2 to 3 ft. High pressure settling
over the waters will result in a weak pressure gradient, and thus
light winds and diminished seas.

Marginal small craft conditions become more likely during Wednesday
with seas likely getting to 4 to 5 ft with an increasing southerly
flow.

Rip Currents:

Weak flow and seas around 2 ft will lead to a low rip current risk
on Saturday. Increasing S-SW winds and building seas to 3 ft Sunday
afternoon will bring a moderate rip current risk to ocean
beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE