What's Happening In Newington

510
FXUS61 KOKX 291709
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
109 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat likely Wed to Fri, potentially continuing
into Saturday.

2) Low potential for aft/eve thunderstorms on Tuesday, with
potential increasing for mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Heights start to rise aloft today as a strong upper level ridge
begins to build in from the west. While some differences are
still seen in the latest guidance in terms of amplification of
this ridge, the general consensus of peaking between 592-594dam
would be over the 90th percentile of observed 500mb heights for
the OKX Sounding. At the surface, high pressure strengthens over
the area through Tuesday and then shifts just offshore,
basically remaining in control through the weekend. With this
pattern in place, and a modified subtropical airmass, there is
potential for a prolonged period of dangerous heat mid to late
week. There have been no changes to the Extreme Heat Watch since
it was issued on Sunday.

A few things that still need to be ironed out, with one of the
more important factors being dewpoints as is typical this far
out. Given ambient temperatures in most inland areas are
expected to already be near 100, forecast dewpoints will likely
have more impact on heat headlines (Warning vs Advisory) for
coastal areas like southeast CT and Long Island. Large spread in
dewpoints are seen in the latest NBM with upwards of a 10-12
degree difference between the 10th and 90th and a 5-7 degree
difference between the 25th and 75th. The LREF seems more
reasonable with a lower spread, closer to 3 to 5 degree
difference (between 25th and 75th percentile), with the spread
being between the upper 60s and lower 70s. Did lower forecast
dewpoints slightly each afternoon to reflect this uncertainty.
Even with this, still seeing forecast Heat Index values between
105 and 110 for most. This set up will also limit overnight
relief with lows potentially as high as the upper 70s to lower
80s for most. This could be a dangerous situation especially for
sensitive groups.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Given our placement on the northern periphery of the upper
level ridge, we are set up for potential convection/MCSs
rounding the base of the ridge. While this is common in this
pattern, there is usually a lot of uncertainty in timing,
placement and strength of this activity. This is being seen
currently with large spread in the latest guidance. However,
guidance is currently hinting at activity Tuesday and Wednesday.
Most notably the 00z 6/29 HRRR, FV3 and ARW showing a decaying
MCS moving in from the northwest Tuesday afternoon. The SPC has
kept the marginal severe risk northwest of our area. If any
activity is approaching, it will likely be moving into an
unfavorable environment with very little instability with
distinct 600-800mb capping.

Additional thunderstorm activity is possible on Wednesday, with
the SPC expanding the marginal risk through the Lower Hudson
Valley. There is a bit more uncertainty in the guidance for
this time frame with difference in strength/existence of a
shortwave moving through and its ability to weaken the ridge.
This would be a high instability, weak shear situation with
uncertainty in a trigger. This will have to be monitored by
subsequent shifts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure in control with VFR through the TAF period. Chance
of MVFR or lower at the eastern terminals late tonight for a
brief period after 06Z.

Low chance of an isolated SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon especially
north and west of the NYC terminals. Confidence in coverage too
low to include in the TAF attm.

Winds are expected to remain at or under 10 kts today. S-SW
winds do pick up Tuesday to near 10-15 kt, gusting to 20kts by
the early afternoon.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but chances for IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus east
of NYC terminals, more likely at KGON for early morning. Also, brief
localized MVFR or lower possible in late day into nighttime showers
or thunderstorms. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly along the coast,
afternoon into night.

.Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but brief localized MVFR or lower possible
in late day into nighttime showers or thunderstorms. SW wind gusts
15-20 kt mainly along the coast, afternoon into evening.

.Thursday: VFR.

.Friday: Mainly VFR, but chances for MVFR or lower with chances of
showers and thunderstorms, especially towards the evening. Some SW-
NW wind gusts 15-20 kt are possible.

.Saturday: VFR with MVFR or lower possible in afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.  W/SW winds 5-10kts.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued for the eastern Long Island
Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the ocean waters from Moriches
Inlet to Montauk out 20 NM. The dense fog is expected to dissipate
by mid morning.

Mainly sub-Small Craft Advisory criteria expected through the
weekend. There will just likely be a brief period Tuesday afternoon
and then again Wednesday into Wednesday night when a S/SW flow will
likely gust up to 25+ kt. During the Wednesday/Wednesday night
period the ocean seas will also likely reach 5 to 6 ft.

Rip Currents: No changes to the rip current forecast. Light
winds and a 1-2 ft swell will lead to a low risk of rip activity
today. A S/SW flow increases on Tuesday and Wednesday and will
raise the risk to moderate, potentially high, with the
developing S/SW wind wave.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 100/1963
KBDR: 95/1963
KNYC: 100/1901
KLGA: 97/2018
KJFK: 102/1963
KISP: 96/1964

July 2:
KEWR: 102/1966
KBDR: 100/1966
KNYC: 100/1966
KLGA: 101/1966
KJFK: 101/1966
KISP: 99/1966

July 3:
KEWR: 105/1966
KBDR: 99/1966
KNYC: 103/1966
KLGA: 107/1966
KJFK: 104/1966
KISP: 104/1966


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 77/2018
KBDR: 73/2013
KNYC: 79/2018
KLGA: 79/2018
KJFK: 75/1968
KISP: 73/2025

July 2:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 82/1901
KLGA: 78/2002
KJFK: 74/2018
KISP: 74/2014

July 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018

July 4:
KEWR: 81/2002
KBDR: 80/2002
KNYC: 81/2002
KLGA: 82/1999
KJFK: 80/2002
KISP: 76/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
     176-178.
NJ...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT/NV
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...JT/NV