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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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258 FXUS61 KOKX 131459 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1059 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temps near seasonable today and Friday, and slightly below on Saturday, with progressively lowering humidity levels. 2) Moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms likely Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night, with additional scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Monday with passage of frontal system. 3) Localized minor coastal flooding likely for vulnerable locales along the south shore of Nassau county during the nighttime high tide Tonight. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Mean northeast troughing continues through Saturday, with trough axis sliding east Saturday Night. The weak surface trough will likely linger across far eastern portions of the region into this afternoon, with potential for an isolated shower as weak shortwave moves through aloft in a weakly unstable and decreasing moisture environment. Temperatures will run near seasonable today and Friday (mid 80s NE NJ/NYC metro and lower 80s elsewhere), then slightly below seasonable on Saturday in wake of a stronger shortwave and cold frontal passage Friday Night with Canadian high pressure building in. Iso-sct low- top shower potential with this passage, but instability appears below mixed phase region. Progressively lower Tds expected Friday and Saturday in persistent NW flow regime. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Global models continue in good agreement in a frontal system approaching the area Sunday afternoon and passing through on Monday. Primary threat appears to be for a period of heavy rainfall Sun aft/night with approaching shortwave lift and developing 30-35kt llj converging sub-tropical PAC moisture ahead/along approaching warm front w/ possible frontal wave. Iso-sct flash flood potential exists with combo of modest forcing and focus of a very moist (2+" PWATS), sub-tropical, and weakly unstable airmass. Embedded thunderstorm activity possible in strong shear/weak CAPE environment, but low predictability on thunderstorm coverage and severity at this time. Additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity possible Monday aft/eve with slow cold frontal passage. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Astro tides tick down 1 to 2 tenths for tonight high tides, and with weak wind/wave forcing, iso- sct areas of minor flooding should be relegated to vulnerable shoreline communities on the south shore of Nassau county. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak cold front/surface slowly moves across the terminals through this evening. High pressure then follows tonight into Friday. Mainly VFR. Winds will veer to the W-WNW and increase into the afternoon. Wind speeds 10-13 kt are expected with gusts 15-20 kt possible in the afternoon. Winds weaken in the evening, becoming NW around 5 kt or less overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Onset/end times of gusts at LGA, EWR, TEB may be off by 1-2 hours. JFK could also see occasional gusts in the afternoon. Low probability for a brief wind shift to the SW 20-23z, but a full sea breeze passage not expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday-Saturday: VFR. Sunday: VFR into the afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms possible with a chance of MVFR or lower conditions late in the day and at night. Monday: Mainly VFR. Low probability for a shower. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Persistent NW flow expected today through Saturday. Occasional nearshore gusts to 25 kt likely this afternoon and Saturday afternoon in wake of frontal passage. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions expected. SCA potential increases Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night for ocean waters, and potentially all waters with strengthening southerly flow ahead of approaching frontal system. Rip Currents: 1-2 ft SE onshore swell and S/SW wind wave this week, with weak seabreeze development will generally keep the rip risk low through Friday. One caveat, recent new moon will increase the tidal range, and could increase rip risk to moderate particularly around the times of low tide each afternoon. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NV AVIATION...BC MARINE...NV |
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