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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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408 FXUS61 KOKX 090542 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 142 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No additional showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gradually lowering humidity through early next week with temperatures remaining above normal. 2) The next chance for showers/thunderstorms returns Monday afternoon and evening, and may persist each day through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The forecast area will reside in the westerlies through the upcoming week with a series of shortwave troughs swinging through the area. While the vertical temperature profile changes little into early next week with 85H temps holding close to 18C, a deep-layered westerly flow should be able to mix down some drier air into the low levels. While the NBM has done well of late with surface dew points, it is often too deficient in a westerly flow. For dew points Sunday into Monday stayed below the NBM and weighted toward MOS. This keeps heat indices generally below 95. Thus, plan to hold off on extending the heat advisory into Sunday. Regardless, it would be very marginal, perhaps touching 95 in a few spots. Temperatures and heat indices will lower Tuesday through mid week. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast Monday afternoon/evening. The air mass is not as humid on Monday, but increasing mid level flow may support an isolated severe thunderstorm, mainly in NJ. A frontal system slowly moving across the area Tuesday into mid week supporting continued chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak trough of low pressure lingers over the terminals today before gradually pushing east tonight into Monday. VFR through the TAF period. SW-WSW winds 10kt or less through mid-morning, veering more westerly at 10-13kt for the afternoon with gusts 15-20kt. Coastal terminals may back more to the SW in the afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts at KLGA/KEWR/KTEB may be only occasional and end an hour or two earlier than indicated. Occasional gusts 15-20kt possible at KJFK this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Late tonight-Monday Morning: VFR. Monday aftn and evening: Chance of MVFR in potential showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR. Low probability of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening each day. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the middle of next week. Rip Currents: SW flow and associated wind waves will lead to a moderate rip current risk through Sunday. A diminishing swell will result in a low risk for Monday && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ AVIATION...JC |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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