Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
838
FXUS61 KOKX 231729
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
129 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Tranquil weather with comfortable temperatures and lower humidity
for the remainder of this week and into the weekend.
2) A frontal system will bring our next chance at unsettled weather
Monday night into Wednesday.
3) There is a high risk of rip currents for ocean beaches through
today (see below marine section).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
As high pressure centers itself over the northeast this evening
through Friday, we`ll continue to see dry weather and mild
temperatures (around 5 degrees below seasonal average) and lower
humidity. With the weak pressure gradient the winds will remain
light.
High pressure begins to depart northeast into the weekend and an
upper-level trough from Canada takes over the northeast. More cloud
cover is anticipated, but dry weather will continue. Weekend high
temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Next week, a longwave trough will be centered over the northeast. A
shortwave aloft will ride this trough south on Monday, brining a
frontal system from Ontario through the area Monday night into
Wednesday. This frontal system will bring unsettled weather with
showers and thunderstorms expected. Exact impacts and timing is
still a little murky given differences in global guidance on day 6
and 7, but should be come more clear in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the TAF period.
VFR.
N winds at around 10kt or less give way to SE to S sea
breezes this afternoon. Winds become light and variable
overnight. Sea breezes expected again on Friday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of SE sea breeze today may be off by 1-3 hours.
Lower confidence than usual in wind direction forecast. However,
high confidence in wind speeds remaining at 10 kt or below.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday - Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers, possibly
a thunderstorm, from NYC terminals on NW.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower likely in afternoon showers with a chance of
thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions have returned to all waters. With high pressure
over the waters and remaining nearby into the weekend, a prolonged
stretch of sub advisory conditions should take place through the
weekend and to begin next week. Marginal small craft conditions may
return to the ocean waters towards Tuesday.
Rip Currents: The high rip current risk remains in place into this
evening with a 8 second S to SE swell continuing. The rip current
risk will then fall to moderate on Friday and Saturday with a slight
decrease in wave heights and swell, with the winds remaining
relatively light.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BR
|
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.