NWS
NOAA / NWS Text Products
Official forecast-office discussions, statements and outlooks
Local default: New York / Upton (OKX)
Browse official National Weather Service text products by forecast office and product type. Availability varies by office, season and active weather.
Forecast DiscussionForecaster reasoning, trends and confidence behind the forecast.
Hazardous OutlookPotential weather hazards expected during the coming days.
Public InformationStorm summaries, climate notes and special NWS statements.
Local Storm ReportsReports of severe weather, flooding, wind, hail and other impacts.
Tip: For Newington, leave the office set to New York / Upton (OKX), then choose the product you want to read.
Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
416 FXUS61 KOKX 141455 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 955 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast since the last update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An extended stretch of dry weather is expected for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The upper level trough over the region slides eastward late this weekend into early Monday as upper level ridging builds over the mid-West and into the Great Lakes region by mid week, making its way into the Northeast towards the end of the week. At the surface, high pressure builds in and settles to the south by the end of the week. This will result in an extended period of dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures for the week. Below normal temperatures with highs only in the upper 40s today transition to highs in the lower 60s by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure slowly builds in through the weekend. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There could be a few MVFR cigs late this morning near 3 kft. Winds will be generally gusty from the NW, near 300 to 320 true direction during the TAF period. Gusts mainly in the 20-25 kt range. Outside of NYC terminals of KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR, wind gusts are forecast to diminish tonight. Similar flow expected Sunday, with gusts near 20 kt during the day. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... A few gusts could be as high as 25-30 kt this afternoon. Winds could at times fluctuate 10-20 degrees direction to the left and right of 310 magnetic. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Sunday through Wednesday... Sunday: VFR with NW winds G20kt. Monday-Wednesday: VFR. Light WNW-NW flow. && .MARINE... Small crafts were extended in time through tonight. Expect wind gusts to 25-30 kt along with 4-6 ft seas through tonight. It is possible the SCAs may need to be extended into Sunday morning, as wind gusts to 25 mph kt are once again possible. Winds and seas look to remain below SCA criteria for much of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...JM/DR MARINE...JP |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Official text products courtesy of NOAA / National Weather Service.