What's Happening In Newington

486
FXUS61 KOKX 221447
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High risk of rip currents for this weekend. Otherwise, no
significant changes for weekend forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool, breezy and wet for the Memorial Day weekend. This will be a
prolonged soaking stratiform rain. Primary threat will be areas of
minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

2) High risk of rip currents Saturday and Sunday, possibly into
Monday. High surf potential for Saturday Night into Sunday with
minor beach erosion and flooding possible during the times of
high tide Sun aft and night.

3) Milder and drier conditions are likely for mid to late next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

A southern branch upper trough over the Mid and Upper Mississippi
Valley and persistent western Atlantic ridging will allow
subtropical moisture and vort energy to be drawn northeastward
into the region through this weekend. At the surface, Canadian
high pressure will remain entrenched across SE Canada and New
England this weekend under confluent upper flow, allowing for a
persistent overrunning SW flow pattern over a warm front slowly
lifting north from the Mid Atlantic.

Rain will gradually overspread the area Saturday, from SW to
NE, becoming moderate and persisting into Sunday afternoon
before tapering off from west to east late Sunday/Sun Eve. Light
rain and drizzle could linger Sunday Night as warm front and
weak low pressure moves near or over the area.

General agreement in a weak area of low pressure developing across
the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and lifting towards the area Sat Night
thru Sunday. There is subtle spread on the exact strength/track of
low pressure, northward progression of the front and low-level
frontogenetic zone, which is resulting in a 25th to 75th
percentile NBM spread of 1 1/2" to 3" of rainfall across the
region Saturday into Sunday. 00z GEPS/GEFS/EPS guidance also in
general agreement with 30- 50% prob of greater than 2" rainfall
Sat into Sun for southern portions of the region, but are not
indicating potential for greater than 4". GFS an ECMWF AI
ensembles have 10-20% prob of 2" during this time period.

Good agreement on highest rainfall amounts across southern and
southwestern portions of the local Tri-State closer to the front,
and lower amounts to the north with more dry air and subsidence to
overcome. General agreement in strongest llj supporting heaviest
rainfall Sat eve into Sun aft, with WPC URRD and model
soundings indicating rainfall rates up to 0.3" to 0.4"/hr during
this time. If and where higher end rainfall amounts are
realized, areas of nuisance urban and poor drainage flooding
would be primary threat, with localized moderate urban/poor
drainage flood impacts possible. This event is more reminiscent
of a cool season stratiform rainfall event (long duration of
moderate rainfall rates), and not a deep convection event
(intense rainfall rates) like experienced on Wednesday.

One note that will be monitored is the 00z NAM is a northerly
outlier, bringing in some weak instability aloft on head of llj and
periods of heavy rain (several hours of up to 1/2"/hr rates) Sat
Night into Sunday, indicating potential for widespread 2 to 4"
of and locally 5" of rainfall over 36 hrs. The high end of these
rainfall amounts would increase potential for localized
urban/poor drainage flash flooding and small stream flooding.
At this point this is a worst case scenario (less than 5%
probability). Once again, the overwhelming majority of model
guidance keep these type of rainfall amounts south and west of
the region at this time.

In addition to the rain, breezy E/NE winds over the weekend (15 to
25 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph Saturday afternoon thru Sunday
afternoon. A few gusts to 40 mph possible along the coast late Sat
Night thru Sun AM as 40-45kt 950hpa jet overspreads the area. The
rain and onshore flow will keep highs mainly in the 50s to lower 60s
Sat and Sun (5 to 10 degrees below normal).

General agreement on an approaching northern stream shortwave,
inducing one more wave of low pressure along the stalled boundary on
Monday, with an additional bout of light to moderate rain possible.
This appears be the kicker which allows the front to sage far enough
south Monday Night into Tuesday for drying conditions.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Moderate rip current/longshore current risk today with easterly
wind wave building to 3 to 5ft.

High rip/longshore current risk likely Saturday and Sunday as
easterly swells continue to build to 8 to 12 ft.

High surf potential for Saturday Night into Sunday with minor
beach erosion and flooding possible during the times of high
tide Sun aft and night.

High rip current risk could linger into Monday with residual 5
ft long period ese swell.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...

A large mid to upper level ridge may begin to build towards the
northeast mid to late week. This would help bring a return to dry
and warm conditions (upper 70s to lower/mid 80s for highs).

However, 00Z globals are pointing toward an upper trough closing off
over the Northeast into eastern Canada Wed into Fri. Should guidance
converge on this scenario in subsequent model runs, more seasonable
conditions with chances for diurnal shower activity would be on tap.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the north today, the gradually gives way
to a frontal boundary approaching from the south tonight into
Saturday.

VFR through tonight, then gradually lowering ceilings and
visibilities on Saturday, MVFR to IFR. Eastern terminals may
not drop to MVFR until late in afternoon or evening, especially
KGON.

E/NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to less than 10 kt tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Potential for isolated gusts up to 20kt this morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Becoming MVFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts
20-25 kt.

Sunday: IFR or lower with showers. E-NE wind gusts 20-30 kt,
mainly for metro and coastal terminals.

Monday: Chance of MVFR or lower with showers.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
E SCA wind gusts likely develop on the ocean this morning, with seas
building to 5 ft. Winds likely subside below SCA for a period late
today into tonight, before increasing to SCA level on all waters
Saturday morning.

A period of marginal gale force gusts likely late Saturday night
into Sunday. Seas on the ocean will continue to build to 10-12 Sat
Night into Sun.

Winds will gradually subside below SCA levels late Sunday and Sunday
night, but ocean seas will likely remain elevated through Monday in
residual SE swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...JT/DW
MARINE...NV