What's Happening In Newington

810
FXUS61 KOKX 161441
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1041 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well above normal temperatures through Friday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Friday, and
again Sunday afternoon and evening.

3) A cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher in much colder
weather for the beginning of next week, including subfreezing
temperatures Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Today looks like the last hot day of the fcst period. High temps
in the 80s to around 90 for most of the area. Had to manually
boost temps well abv the NBM for the CT and NY coasts. Brought
Montauk up by 11 degrees abv the NBM, which may still end up
being too little. Still warm and abv normal on Fri, but high
temps only in the 70s and low 80s with falling heights and chcs
for shwrs and tstms.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A few cells may still pop early this mrng with outflow passing
thru the cwa. No upr support so this convection should be
limited in extent and intensity.

Unstable today, particularly N and W, but with the lack of a
trigger tstm development is expected to be low probability
attm. Still something to watch in the mesoscale as the day goes
on due to expected CAPE and a lack of CIN. The next best chcs
are this eve and tngt as heights fall and the sfc boundary drops
swd into the area. The sfc boundary looks a bit too displaced
from the upr support tngt to support a solid focus and high
confidence in development. Stuck with the NBM pops which are
only slight chc.

Timing of the upr trof for Fri seems a bit too early for optimal
tstm support attm. A six hour difference could allow for this to
act on enough CAPE to produce some strong low topped convection.
For now the NBM was followed which indicates chcs for shwrs
thru the day.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Shwrs and embedded tstms likely on Sun with a cold fropa. Timing
will determine the nature of any svr threat. The GFS and AI-GFS
right now look a little too quick to support a big event with
the front already into the area at 12Z. It is still a powerful
upr low with a H3 jet modeled at 130+kt, so pcpn is still likely
with the sys.

NW winds kick in behind the front and temps plummet by late in
the day with lingering areas of rain. The cold pool aloft builds
in Mon with 1000-500mb thicknesses around 520dam. The steep
lapse rates should allow for at least isold-sct shwrs, possibly
mixed with snow or ice pellets. The NBM pops may be a bit too
low. Some spots across the interior may drop blw freezing Sun
ngt, then much of the area could drop blw freezing Mon ngt. MGJ
MOS climo is 39, and the MEX is already producing 29 Sun ngt
and 25 Mon ngt.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A prefrontal trough moves across the area this evening followed
by a cold front passage on Friday.

Mainly VFR. A few showers are possible across the Lower Hudson
Valley this evening after 01z. Isolated showers are also
possible overnight elsewhere, but not enough confidence/coverage
to include in TAF at this time.

S-SSW winds increase into the early afternoon. Sea breeze
enhancement this afternoon will lead to 10-15 kt sustained winds
with gusts around 20 kt possible. Gusts end around 00z with
sustained winds falling below 10 kt overnight. Winds will veer
to the NW early Friday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may end up occasional this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: Chance of showers, mainly in the afternoon and early
evening. MVFR or lower conditions possible, especially at night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR ceilings.

Sunday: MVFR or lower conditions possible. Showers likely. W
winds gusts 20 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Waves across the eastern ocean waters may briefly build to
around 5 ft tngt, otherwise conditions will remain below SCA
levels into Saturday night. A strong frontal system over the
waters will likely bring SCA conditions Sunday and Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Thu, April 16:
KEWR: 64/2002
KBDR: 53/2002
KNYC: 69/2002
KLGA: 68/2002
KJFK: 57/2002
KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17:
KEWR: 68/2002
KBDR: 57/2002
KNYC: 74/2002
KLGA: 73/2002
KJFK: 60/2002
KISP: 61/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DR/DS
MARINE...