What's Happening In Newington

400
FXUS61 KOKX 050751
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
251 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track.
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and continued cold through Friday.

2) An Arctic cold front will bring light snow accumulation
Friday night into Saturday along with frigid air, strong winds
and hazardous/dangerous wind chills through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A high pressure ridge to the west will settle over the area on
Friday, then weaken as offshore low pressure passes well SE and
as WAA ahead of the Arctic front approaches from the NW.
Temperatures will remain close to 10 degrees below normal.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Heights drop aloft Friday through Saturday as a longwave trough
w/closed upper low over Hudson Bay deepens over the eastern US.
Shortwave energy aloft from Alberta will pass to the south
Friday night, while WAA ahead of the Arctic front approaches
from the Great Lakes. This should bring some light accumulating
snow Fri night. Then strong forced ascent with the Arctic front
and accompanying shortwave forcing and low to mid level
frontogenesis, along with some weak vertical stability, should
keep light snow going into daytime Sat mainly across Long Island
and S CT. There could even be some interaction between the
digging trough and a rapidly intensifying offshore low on Sat,
with an inverted trough extending NW from the offshore low
possibly providing some enhanced low level convergence out east.
Snowfall during this time may be more showery or squally.

Totals snowfall of 1-2 inches appears likely for most of Long
Island and S CT likely, with a dusting to an inch west of there.

The more impactful weather will likely end up being the cold
air and strong winds, leading to potentially dangerous wind
chills late day Saturday into Saturday night. Winds and wind
gusts were adjusted toward higher NBM percentiles and MOS, while
NBM temperatures looked reasonable. This leads to NW winds
meeting advisory criteria Sat into Sat evening, sustained 25-35
mph with gusts 45-50 mph possible over a good portion of the
area (especially NYC metro and along the coast). Winds will not
be quite as strong late Sat night into early Sunday morning,
still sustained at 10-20 mph. Combined with low temps 0 to 5
below well inland and in the single digits elsewhere, wind
chills late Saturday night into early Sunday morning will be as
low as 20-25 below well inland, 15-20 below most elsewhere, and
10-15 below in NYC and the immediate surrounding east/west
suburbs. Extreme Cold watches may be necessary for most of the
area for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds towards the terminals through the
TAF period.

NW winds persist at 5-8 kt and may weaken a bit more before 10Z.
Light and variable winds are forecast outside of NYC terminals.
NW winds increase a bit Thursday morning, becoming around 10 kt
late morning into the afternoon. Winds weaken again to less than
7 kt Thursday evening but remain out of the NNW.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Thursday Night-Friday Afternoon: VFR.

Friday Night: MVFR or lower at times in light snow. WNW gusts
15-20 kt late.

Saturday: MVFR or lower in snow, mainly east of NYC terminals.
Lower chances of snow in the afternoon. Otherwise VFR. NW winds
20-30 kt with gusts 35-45 kt, highest afternoon into early evening.
Winds and gusts gradually decrease thereafter.

Sunday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions are expected through Friday night. NW
winds should ramp up immediately to gale force following Arctic
cold fropa Sat morning, and continue into Sat night, with peak
gusts 40-45 kt. Due to cold air/water temps and strong winds,
moderate to heavy freezing spray is also possible during this
time frame.

SCA cond will follow for all waters daytime Sunday, then winds
gradually ramp down over the ocean/Sound/bays Sunday evening.
Hazardous seas should linger into late Sunday night/Monday
morning and possibly beyond.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Sun Feb 8:

KEWR:  18/1985
KBDR:  18/1994
KNYC:   8/1895
KLGA:  21/1985
KJFK:  22/1967
KISP:  20/1985

Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934
KBDR:   5/1963
KNYC: -15/1934
KLGA:   7/1979
KJFK:   8/1979
KISP:   5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the all
time record lows for those sites. Temperature are not expected to
fall to those levels.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BG
AVIATION...JM/MW
MARINE...BG