Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
846 FXUS61 KOKX 011013 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 513 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes were made with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light snow accumulations today, followed by wind chills in the single digits late tonight. 2) Mixed precip event likely for Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... No advisories are currently anticipated for snow or wind chills. Combined moisture and mid level lift are expected to produce a light snowfall across the area today. Snow will be entering parts of Orange County by sunrise and advancing east. The snow should then be exiting eastern Long Island/CT by late afternoon. Thermal profiles support snow as wet bulb temps should be at or below 32 for the duration of the event - only a brief mix with rain is possible at the onset for some of the southernmost zones. Minor impacts expected for the most part. Accumulations mostly under an inch, but around an inch for some of the northernmost zones. Colder air filters in from the north tonight with minimum wind chills short of advisory criteria - mostly in the single digits. Highs on Monday only the upper 20s to lower 30s and get to within 3 degrees of record low maximum temp for the date at Islip. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A warm advection precip event is likely on Tuesday. A broad area of weak low pressure stretching westward through the Ohio Valley results in an approaching warm front. Its unclear if/when the front actually pushes through the forecast area, but what is more certain is that an elevated warm layer will shift into the region. Plenty of cold air will be in place at the onset of precip, with snow as the anticipated precip type. Due to the warm nose aloft, cannot rule out eventual freezing rain for inland areas. Freezing rain could be possible even for the city and urban corridor of NE NJ, owing to an earlier arrival of the precip. Thermal profiles slowly warm up through the day with precip across most of the area falling as plain rain in the afternoon. As it stands, chances of eventual advisory issuances would more likely be related to freezing rain versus accumulated snowfall. Even if sufficient warm air precluding snow takes a longer time to arrive, snow amounts would probably remain below advisory thresholds. The higher threat of an advisory would appear to be over parts of the interior that may take longer to rise above freezing at the surface while the air aloft becomes too warm for snow growth. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front moves across the area terminals early this morning. A wave of low pressure passes over the area during the daytime, followed by high pressure tonight. Fog/mist has developed across portions of Long Island and S CT. Expect IFR or lower conditions at the terminals in these locations. Improvement is expected around 10-11z, when a NW flow kicks behind the cold frontal passage. Unscheduled amendments are possible. Light snow will bring conditions back to MVFR and possible IFR mid-morning through midday, followed by a return to VFR conditions by the afternoon. Winds are gone light and variable. They will become N 5-10 kt just before daybreak with a passing cold front, then increase to 10- 15 kt later in the morning. There may be a short 2-3 hours of gusts right behind the cold front. Gusts behind the front should remain in the upper teens to near 20kt. In addition, some gusts will be possible behind the wave of low pressure this afternoon, with winds 10-15g17-22kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low confidence in fog/mist areal extent and duration. This has been handled with TEMPOs and unscheduled amendments are possible. Moderate/high confidence with the timing of the snow for Sunday, and a brief period of IFR visibilities. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday: VFR. Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming plain rain during the afternoon and into the evening south to north. S wind G15-20 kt possible. Wednesday - Thursday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain. Thursday S wind G15-20 kt possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-advisory conditions are expected for the most part through Tuesday. Conditions may get close for a time on the ocean tonight with N flow gusting over 20 kt and seas up to 4 ft. Light freezing spray expected on the ocean waters tonight into Monday morning as well. There are several weak waves of low pressure that will pass through later this week with winds and seas on the ocean getting to around SCA criteria Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then again at the end of the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...BC MARINE...JC |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.












