What's Happening In Newington

567
FXUS61 KOKX 232318
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
718 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory on the ocean was extended into
Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Precipitation winding down this evening.

2) Rain is likely Thursday night followed by cold and dry
conditions for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
As an upr trof swings thru late this aftn and eve, DPVA along with
steepening lapse rates may trigger sct-isold shwrs. Some mixing with
snow is possible especially across the interior. No accums expected.
Residual moisture however may allow for some pockets of black ice to
develop overnight as temps drop into the 20s, depending on the
extent of surface drying.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front is progged to move across the region Thursday night
into early Friday. Precip probabilities have increased slightly,
with the most likely timeframe for rain occurring after midnight.
This is when the modeling is coming into agreement with the most
organized lift/convergence coinciding with moisture. The atmosphere
quickly dries out Friday morning behind the cold front. Temperatures
should be able to rise well into the 50s across the area as dew
points drop throughout the day. Dry conditions will continue into
next Monday with high pressure in control. Daytime temperatures will
likely end up well below normal on Saturday in the low to mid 40s,
before slowly trending milder Sunday into next Monday. High
temperatures by next Monday should be in the 50s. The coldest nights
appear to be Friday and Saturday night with temperatures in the 20s
and lower 30s, coldest inland.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region tonight, and over the area
Tuesday.

VFR. Lingering MVFR ceilings possible until 03Z/04Z, and used a
TEMPO for the possibility.

Winds NNW 10-14 kt early this evening, then less than 10 kt.
Gusts to around 20 kt this evening, however, gusts may be more
occasional before ending 05Z/06Z. Winds become light and
variable for a few hours Tuesday afternoon as a weak surface
trough develops. Winds then become light S/SW late in the
afternoon.


    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional through this evening before
ending.

Wind shift to S/SW may be off +/- 1-2 hours.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR with a slight chance of rain in the evening,
MVFR or lower late at night with rain likely. SW wind gusts
15-20 kt.

Friday: Chance of rain early with MVFR or lower possible. NW
wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will build tngt, with waves on the ocean coming up to
around 5 ft. A SCA remains in effect for the ocean, and was extended
thru most of the day on Thu with seas remaining at criteria. On the
protected waters, an ocnl gust to around 25kt possible overnight.
Winds and seas blw SCA lvls Wed with hi pres building in.

SCA conditions are likely on the ocean Thursday night and could
potentially expand to the non-ocean waters due to a cold front
passage. SCA conditions may then linger into Friday on the ocean.
Winds and seas subside Friday night into Saturday as high pressure
builds towards the waters.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/DS