What's Happening In Newington

855
FXUS61 KOKX 090841
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
341 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hazardous wind chills continue into early this morning.

2) Light snow/wintry mix possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.

3) Temperatures continue below normal through the end of the
week, though not as cold.

4) Chance of rain or snow late next weekend into the beginning
of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure continues to build in from the west while low
pressure shifts farther offshore. WInds will continue to weaken
this morning but given temperatures in the single digits and low
teens, the wind will allow wind chills to be as low as -10 along
the coast to -15 inland. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect
for the entire area until 10AM.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The next chance of precipitation comes late Tuesday into Tuesday
night with the passage of a frontal system. A warm front pushes
north through the area Tuesday with a cold front quickly
following Tuesday night. Aloft, heights start falling late
Tuesday with the approach of a shortwave after an upper level
ridge axis shifts east.

QPF overall looks light. Any precipitation should form in the
form of snow, though with temperatures becoming more marginal
along the coast ahead of the cold front, it`s possible for
coastal and southern areas to mix with or see light rain
showers or light sleet, mainly for parts of northeast NJ, NYC,
and Long Island. Latest forecast has up to an inch of snow for
eastern CT and eastern LI with with western areas possible not
seeing any snow.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Mean upper trough will remain across eastern Canada into the
Northeast, keeping the area below normal. However, it will be warmer
than the recent stretch of cold weather that began the last week of
January.

On the heels of a cold frontal passage, Wednesday will feature the
arrival of another shot of cold air and gusty NW flow (up to 25
mph). High pressure over the Midwest will then build east through
the upcoming weekend. Expect highs mainly in the lower to mid 30s,
with lows in the teens inland and the lower 20s at the coast. The
coldest days will be Thursday and Friday with temperatures about 5
to 8 degrees below normal. Some warming to near normal
temperatures is possible by the weekend, though confidence at
this time is low and dependent on any low pressure systems.


.KEY MESSAGE 4...
Both the dynamical and AI global models continue to show a wide
range of solutions and run to run variability of low pressure
impacting the east coast late next weekend into early next week.
The cross polar flow we have seen of late becomes cutoff as the
southern branch of the polar jet becomes dominant across the
lower 48 during this time. In addition, short term signals AO,
NAO, PNA all showing a breakdown of the blocking pattern that
has kept the area unseasonably cold and stormy over the western
Atlantic. Low track will be critical with marginally cold
airmass in place.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds west of the region today.

VFR.

NW winds will continue to diminish. Winds remain NW this
morning, 10-15kt, becoming more WNW and diminishing this afternoon.
At KGON, wind gusts may be occasional through late morning or
early afternoon. Winds become light and variable tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late Tonight: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, MVFR possible in a chance of light snow inland
and rain and snow along the coast late day and into the night.

Wednesday through Friday: VFR. NW winds with gusts 15-25kt Wednesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean and a
Freezing Spray Advisory is in effect for all waters except the
South Shore Bays, though the non-ocean waters fall off early
this morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected by late this afternoon or
tonight for all waters.

SCA conditions will be possible on the ocean waters Wednesday into
Wednesday night in a NW flow following a cold frontal passage. Winds
and seas subside Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds in
from the west.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934
KBDR:   5/1963
KNYC: -15/1934
KLGA:   7/1979
KJFK:   8/1979
KISP:   5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the all
time record lows for those sites. Temperatures are not expected
to fall to those levels.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MW