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432
FXUS61 KOKX 161433
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower chance for late Thu / Thu night.

2) Dry and pleasant Friday into the start of the weekend.

3) Wet weather increasingly likely later in the weekend and possibly
carrying into the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A passing sprinkle is possible early this morning NW of the NYC
metro. Otherwise, an upper level ridge in place and centered SW
of the area should keep the region predominantly dry through
tonight and into early Thursday. Heights begin to low some late
Thursday into Thursday night. With the approach of a cold front
the relatively higher chance of showers should be late in the
day Thursday and during Thursday night. Latest consensus of the
CAM guidance suggest that the activity initially will have
difficulty holding together as it translates east, with any
activity right along the cold front perhaps holding together
some as it slides east. Essentially carried chance to slight
chance PoPs from NW to SE very late in the day Thu through Thu
night. There have been some runs of the NAM suggesting more of a
shower or t-storm chance during the day Thursday, with the NAM
showing more of a MCS for Thu night. For now this solution is
not supported by other guidance and thus these more aggressive
NAM solution(s) appears unlikely at this time. The cold front is
progged by NWP and AI consensus to get off the coast by 12z
Friday morning. QPF output at this time remains rather light.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cooler and drier airmass will gradually work in behind the cold
front during the day Friday and into Friday night. Dewpoints are
forecast the gradually fall through the 60s much of the day Friday,
and potentially into the middle and upper 40s later Friday night.
This would allow outlying areas to fall into the upper 40s and 50s
with respect to minimum temperatures by Saturday morning. With high
pressure getting further east during Saturday afternoon and a
developing easterly flow daytime temperatures across portions of the
area may struggle to get out of the upper 60s to begin the
weekend.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
During Saturday night as high pressure departs the New England coast
a warm front will approach from the west. This will bring more
clouds Saturday night and the likelihood of rain towards Sunday
morning. Currently carrying likely PoPs throughout the day Sunday,
with high end chance PoPs Sunday night. Afterwards there is some
question as to where the front ultimately locks up during the first
half of next week with a suggestion that the front goes quasi-
stationary. Some NWP deterministic runs have shown the front nudging
to the south and allowing some high pressure to build from the
north, while the consensus of NWP and AI guidance suggests the front
remains nearby or at least close enough to bring an ongoing chance
of showers / rain for Monday through Wednesday. Forecast confidence
is below average at this time with uncertainty around the
positioning of the frontal boundary. Temperatures during this time
period may average slightly below normal with guidance indicating an
onshore easterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the area will slide offshore into tonight.

VFR.

A developing light SW flow this morning becomes more S this
afternoon at 10 kt or less. Winds then back SSW-SW this evening
and diminish into the overnight. SW winds gradually increase
Thursday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shift to the S/SE may vary by 1-2 hours.

Chance KEWR SE sea breeze does not move through late
afternoon/early evening with winds remaining SW-SSW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower well NW of the
NYC metro in the afternoon, chance of showers and MVFR Thursday
night.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday Night-Sunday: Showers possible night, then becoming
likely on Sunday with MVFR or lower possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains in place through today, before slowly sliding
south of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. The pressure
gradient will remain weak throughout this time frame with conditions
remaining well below advisory levels. Towards late Friday into
Friday night marginal small craft conditions may develop for portions
of the ocean waters behind a cold front on a NNW wind. Otherwise,
sub advisory conditions are expected Saturday with high pressure
building to the north. The high will move off the New England coast
Saturday night into Sunday allowing the winds to become more
onshore. Marginal small craft conditions are possible on all waters
by Sunday.

Rip Currents...
For today the rip current risk should be low for the majority of the
day with the surf only getting to around a foot. A moderate risk of
rip currents is expected on all south-facing Long Island beaches on
Thursday, especially as a SE swell increases under an increasing
southerly wind wave in the afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE