What's Happening In Newington

011
FXUS61 KOKX 211138
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
638 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Blizzard warnings have been issued for Long Island, New York
City, and the Connecticut coast.

Winter storm warnings have been issued for interior southern
Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northeast New Jersey.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An intense coastal storm will bring heavy snowfall and
strong winds from Sunday into Monday. Blizzard conditions are
expected along the coast with near-blizzard conditions across
interior southern Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and
northeast New Jersey Sunday night into the first half of
Monday.

2) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal
flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional
coastal flooding is possible on Monday.

3) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for
precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the
40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Confidence has increased to the point where winter storm and
blizzard warnings have been issued across the forecast area.

A major winter storm is forecast to impact the area Sunday into
Monday. Model guidance has congealed in taking a deepening low
off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday northeast to near the 40N...70W
benchmark Monday. This track is often favorable for all snow
across the region. The low undergoes explosive deepening in 12h,
tracking from near the North Carolina coast Sunday afternoon to
east of the Delmarva Sunday night. Most of the guidance shows
pressure falls on the order of 25 to 30 mb in 12 hour. The low
deepens to around 970 mb as it approaches the benchmark Monday
morning.

This storm, expected to be early 1000 miles across in diameter,
will produce heavy precipitation and gale to storm force winds
over the adjacent coastal waters. Model soundings show boundary
layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal
locations can expect to see gusts up 40 to 50 mph, possibly even
stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT. Even inland
area will see near blizzard conditions with winds just a bit
weaker. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the
first half of Monday.

Liquid equivalent amounts of around an inch across far NW
portions of Orange county will be near an inch, with upward of
an 1.5" at the coast. There is even some guidance suggestive of
amount around 2 inches at the coast. However, while there is
good overall agreement in the guidance, there still have been
small adjustments east and west and a consenus forecast (blend
of WPC and NBM) was used. Snow ratios are expected to start of
around 10:1 and then possibly get up to 12-13:1. Temperatures
initially on Sunday may get into the lower and mid 30s, expect
most locations to fall to around freezing if not lower as the
heavy snow develops in the afternoon. So ratios right off the
bat along he coast may even be lower for a short time.

Snowfall amounts of 14 to 18 inches are forecast along the coast
with 10 to 14 inches across the interior. NBM deterministic
forecasts point to amounts of 14 to 24 inches across the area,
highest along the coast. But due to some wobbling of the low
track a bit, we do want to see more continuity. NBM 90th
percentile has amounts of 2 to 3 ft. The 00Z LREF (EPS, GEPS,
and GEFS) mean has about a foot at the coast and 7 to 8 inches
across far western sections of Orange County in the Lower Hudson
Valley. The EPS is contributing lower amounts with a more
eastern solution. Should it come a bit more west, than the
higher totals are not out of the realm possibility.

Snow is forecast to develop from SW to NE on Sunday, in the
morning from NYC and points north and west, and the in the
afternoon for the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow and
wind will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow will end
from west to east during the afternoon hours.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce
a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to
locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western
Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island
Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY
Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long
Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday
night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized
overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into
Monday morning.

Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the
Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow
limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...

There are two features, a weak wave of low pressure midweek and a
passing cold front towards late week that will give these next
potential precipitation events. With the absence of offshore
cyclogenesis in the forecast mid to late week, there will not be as
much potential for the precipitation to grow with subsequent
forecasts. Aloft, the flow in mid levels and is not too amplified
and mostly zonal outside of a quick shortwave giving brief
amplification early Friday.

High temperatures forecast Tuesday will be getting to low to mid
30s, then upper 30s to near 40 Wednesday, more in the 40s Thursday
and then back to upper 30s to near 40 next Friday. This will allow
for snowmelt each day and with mostly sub-freezing temperatures at
night into early morning, subsequent refreeze of snow melt.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds in today. A strong nor`easter impacts
the area Sunday into Monday.

Terminals have now improved to VFR and will remain so for the
remainder of the day today. Ceilings lower to MVFR Saturday
night, possibly to IFR near 12Z Sunday. Following 12Z, MVFR/IFR
is likely in snow.

Dry weather until Sunday morning. PROB30s for snow in TAFs between
9Z and 12Z to account for possible early onset of snow. AFter
12Z, light snow becomes prevailing. Heavy snow will not begin
until sometime after 18Z.

WNW winds around 5 kt become 10 kt by afternoon. Winds veer NE
Saturday night at 5-10 kt ahead of a nor`easter. Winds increase
to 15 kt by 18Z, then gusts ramp up after 18Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected today.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions are becoming increasingly likely in
developing heavy snow Sunday. NE winds G20-25 kt Sunday. NE Sunday
night with G35-40 kt. Highest winds and gusts are expected at the
coastal terminals. Potential for LLWS Sunday night with 50kt at 2kft.

Monday: MVFR or lower in snow. N winds G30-40 kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in snow or rain/snow mix possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Storm watch has been expanded to include eastern LI Sound.
Peconic and Gardiners Bays, and the westernmost ocean zones
from Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet.

Marginal SCA conditions for seas to start today will come to an
end later this morning as weak high pressure builds across the
water.

A major coastal storm will then take shape along the Mid
Atlantic coast Sunday, rapidly deepening some 25 to 30 mb by
early Monday morning. The low drop to around 970mb as it reaches
the 40N...70W benchmark Monday morning. Gales and storm force
gusts are becoming increasing likely with seas building as high
as 20 feet on the ocean and 5 to 10 ft on LI Sound (highest
eastern sound). Conditions ramp down to SCA on all waters for
Mon night.

SCA potential remains Tuesday through Thursday on the ocean. Non-
ocean waters will have SCA potential for wind gusts Tuesday and
mainly below SCA wind gusts Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With the potential major snowstorm Sunday into Monday, there is
the potential for some snowfall records to be broken. Here are
the records for Sunday and Monday for the climate sites:

                      Sun 2/22      Mon 2/23

Central Park, NY:     6.0/2008      4.8/1972
LaGuardia, NY:        6.4/2008      4.1/1972
John F Kennedy, NY:   6.9/2008      6.1/1987
Newark, NJ:           6.8/2008      4.1/1987
Islip, NY:            5.5/2008      6.7/1987
Bridgeport, CT:       7.0/2008      2.6/1987

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
     CTZ005>008.
     Blizzard Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
     CTZ009>012.
     Coastal Flood Watch late Sunday night for CTZ009-010.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ067>070.
     Blizzard Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Watch late Sunday night for NYZ071-073-078-176-
     177.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday
     night for NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday
     night for NYZ080-179.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ331-332-340-350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ335-338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DW