What's Happening In Newington

437
FXUS61 KOKX 301140
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
640 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cold Weather Advisory now includes Midnight tonight through 10 AM
Saturday across the entire area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frigid conditions continue through Saturday. A Cold Weather
Advisory is in place area-wide through mid-morning today and then
again overnight tonight into Saturday morning. Advisories could be
needed again for Saturday night.

2) The lowering trend of snow chances and accumulations continues
for late Saturday night through Sunday. Minimal snow impacts, if any.

3) Strong, gusty winds and minor coastal flooding/minor shoreline
impacts remain possible Saturday night through Sunday night due to
the offshore storm system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold Weather Advisory for this morning remains in effect although we
may fall short of advisory thresholds. NBM has been too cold with
temperatures for the past couple of nights. With this in mind, went
above NBM for both highs and lows for today/tonight, although did go
with NBM in for inland areas since decoupling winds would be more
likely here and also being farther away from potential late night
cirrus that could impact the low temperatures tonight for coastal
areas. Forecast wind chills are however still within advisory range
for most of the area for midnight tonight through mid-Saturday
morning. Even for the spots that could fall short of criteria, it
should be close enough, especially given the variable nature of
winds. The advisory therefore now includes late tonight through mid-
Saturday morning. Advisories could be needed again for the entire
area for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures won`t
be as cold, but winds will be ramping up during the overnight
period, creating the very cold wind chills.

Additionally, record low maximum temperatures might occur today. See
the Climate section below for the current records.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Just about all guidance has dry weather or very light snow potential
for late Saturday night through Sunday. Any snow would likely be
limited to Long Island and SE CT and limited to under an inch.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The strong storm system that could brush some of the area with light
snow will at least produce gusty northerly winds Saturday night
through Sunday night. There is potential for sustained N winds 15-25
mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Gusts could approach 45 mph, especially
across Long Island and coastal Connecticut, so do not want to
completely rule out the potential for an Advisory (at least 45 mph
gusts). Winds will likely be lower heading farther inland,
especially NW of the NYC metro.

The strength of the storm combined with astronomically high tides
with an upcoming full moon could produce minor coastal flooding for
mainly the night time high tide cycles Saturday night through Sunday
night. The strong offshore flow will however limit the surge from
the offshore storm. Best chances for minor coastal flooding during
will be over the south shore back bays and potentially western Great
South Bay. Most other coastal locations may just see water levels
touch minor benchmarks. Right now it appears that impacts could be
more widespread for Sunday night versus Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pres builds in W of the region thru Sat mrng.

Mainly VFR. Low chance for ocnl CIGS around 3500ft this aftn.

NW winds thru the TAF period. Speeds gusting in the 25-30kt
range most of the day, then decreasing blw 10kt aft 23-02Z.
Winds remain aob 10kt on Sat.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may only be ocnl this mrng, especially TEB and EWR. Low
chance for periods of MVFR CIGS this aftn.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. There is a chance for some MVFR or
lower conditions along with a chance of snow, mainly late night
Saturday into Sunday. Best chance will be across the terminals east
of NYC. Northerly wind gusts increasing at night to 20-25 kt, then
30-35 kt on Sunday. There is low confidence at this time on the
magnitude of winds and snow.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR with NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Included the non-ocean waters in the SCA today. Looks like there
should be enough gusts to 25kt here to warrant the issuance. SCA and
freezing spray advisory on the ocean have been extended by a few
more hours into this evening. After a relatively quiet period,
offshore winds increase Saturday night. A Gale Watch remains posted
for all waters late Saturday night through Sunday. Thinking we`ll
fall short of Storm Warning thresholds during this period. Should the
watch be converted to a Gale Warning, at least the ocean waters
would probably need an extension in time to include part of Sunday
night. Winds otherwise diminish across all waters for Monday and
Monday night with ocean seas remaining elevated to advisory
thresholds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 30:
KEWR: 16/1934
KBDR: 18/1965
KNYC: 16/1934
KLGA: 19/1977
KJFK: 19/1977
KISP: 19/1977

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC