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163
FXUS61 KOKX 211744
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
144 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated highs today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry conditions will continue into early next week
with gusty N-NE winds continuing through the end of this week.

2) Minor coastal flooding expected across the south shore back
bays of Nassau, western portions of the Great South Bay, and
lower NY Harbor with late this afternoon/early evening high
tide. Additional localized minor coastal flooding possible on
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Based on trends and some later guidance, have raised temperatures
a few degrees. Most locations are now forecast to get to around
60 if not higher.

The low pressure/nor`easter located about 350 miles southeast
of Fire Island will continue meandering today before gradually
picking up speed tonight, then track ENE-NE away from the coast
Thursday into Friday.

The main sensible weather impact will be from the continuation
of gusty N-NE winds, especially close to the coast. Gusts 25-35
mph are anticipated with a low chance of a few immediate coast
locations reaching 40 mph, mainly along the southeast coast of
Long Island. Further inland, gusts 20-25 mph are expected. Gusts
may become occasional or end away from the coast tonight where
gusts 25-35 mph remain possible. By Thursday, gusts should be
weaker as the storm starts moving further offshore.

Otherwise, a weak surface trough/cold front will move across the
northeast late Thursday into Thursday night. This is associated
with a fast moving northern stream trough that will help push
the storm well offshore. Behind these systems, high pressure
will reestablish itself over southeast Canada Thursday night and
then builds over the northeast Friday into the weekend. The
high will remain in control into early next week.

The forecast is largely dry through the next week. The only
exception is for the east end/forks of Long Island where a brief
shower is possible this evening as some moisture could pivot well
NW of the offshore storm. There is a good amount of low level dry
air to overcome, so it may just end up being a few sprinkles.

Mid and upper level clouds will increase from the SE through the
day today with mostly cloudy conditions likely for eastern half
of the area. These clouds will diminish late tonight into
Thursday. Mostly clear conditions are then forecast through
early next week.

The warmest day for the rest of the week will be Thursday where
highs will reach the low to mid 60s. Temperatures should then be a
bit below normal until a warming trend begins early next week.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Persistent easterly swells from an offshore system are expected
to contribute to some minor coastal flooding and tidal piling
with the late afternoon and early evening high tide for portions
of the lower NY Harbor, south shore back bays of Nassau County,
and western Great South Bay. There may also be some localized
minor flooding for portions similar locations during high tides
on Thursday. Some minor beach erosion is possible during this
period. Elsewhere, water levels are expected to remain below
minor coastal flooding benchmarks.

Have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the south shore back
bays of Nassau County and western Great South Bay for the late
afternoon/early evening high tide. This is where minor coastal
flooding looks more widespread. The Coastal Flood Statement for
portions of the Lower NY Harbor is unchanged with localized
minor coastal flooding mainly in the vicinity of Newark Bay and
potentially the Great Kills Harbor.

Continued tidal piling could result in another cycle or two of
localized minor flooding during high tides on Thursday.
However, a long period of northerly wind could be enough to
offset flooding. Main concern is across western portions of the
Great South Bay due to potential of water not flowing out of the
bay due to the tidal piling. Levels may also come close for the
most vulnerable locations in back bays of Southern Nassau. Will
hold off on extending any statements/advisories until seeing
how the upcoming tidal cycles verify.

Thereafter, astronomical tides will increase as we approach a
full moon early Monday morning. Easterly long period swells are
expected to continue, but slowly diminish in height Friday into
the upcoming weekend. Localized minor coastal flooding cannot be
ruled out for some of the most vulnerable coastal locations of
the back bays and potentially the western Sound by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The area terminals will remain between high pressure to the N and
low pressure remaining well offshore which moves slowly north through
the TAF period.

VFR thru the TAF period.

NNE to N winds, generally averaging around 010 true through this
afternoon, gradually backs to the N/NW tngt into Thu. Winds this
afternoon around 10-20G20-30kt, with a few peak gusts to around 30kt.
Winds start to diminish slightly after 20z, but generally remain
10-15G20kt thru the night at most terminals. Some outlying terminals
may lose prevailing gusts for a 4 to 5 hr period overnight. Winds
increase again 12-13Z Thu. Peak gust Thu should be slightly less
than today.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may end for a time tngt for KTEB.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday: VFR. NNW winds G15-25kt.

Friday: VFR. NNE winds, with G15-20kt mainly in morning.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday: VFR with light winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Only change made to marine headlines were to extend the gale
warning for the ocean out 20 nm from Fire Island Inlet to
Moriches Inlet to 6 am Thursday and ocean out 60 nm east of
Moriches until 11 am. Gales are still expected today into
tonight on the ocean except out 20 nm west of Fire Island
Inlet. SCA winds are anticipated on the Bays, Sound and NY
Harbor. Ocean seas will range from 8 to 14 ft, highest on the
offshore ocean waters. Some 5-6 ft seas could also spill into
the eastern Sound late today into tonight.

Any lingering gales Thursday morning east of Moriches Inlet
should subside with lingering SCA winds possible, mainly on the
ocean for the rest of the day on Thursday. A brief extension of
the SCA is also possible on the non-ocean waters on Thursday.
Ocean seas will be slow to subside through the end of the week,
and may not end up below 5 ft out to 20 nm until early Saturday
morning. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for NYZ080.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345-355.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-380.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ353-383-385.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DS