What's Happening In Newington

804
FXUS61 KOKX 300631
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
231 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast on track for a cool and windy day. Gales have been expanded
to the central ocean zones and the south shore bays.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breezy and below normal temperatures today.

2) More seasonable temperatures through much of the week with the
potential for well above normal temperatures towards the end of the
week.

2) A moderate rip current risk continues at the ocean beaches
through the weekend. Some isolated minor coastal flooding may
also be possible with the evening high tides today and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

A deep upper level closed low north of the region will dives
southeastward passing east of the region today. This will drive
a strong cold front across the region early this morning.
Behind the cold front it will be noticeably cooler today with
high temperatures only reaching the middle and upper 60s for the
majority of the area. It is likely that temperatures do not get
out of the 50s across the eastern sections of CT and Long
Island.

In addition to the cooler temperatures, it will be a rather windy
day with northerly winds gusting 25-35mph, with the potential for
some gusts across eastern CT and Long Island reaching 35-40mph. Can
not rule out a few peak gusts to near 50 mph across the far eastern
sections as well.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

Ridging returns for the end of the weekend with a return to more
seasonable temperatures with highs in the 70s and dry conditions.
With the start of meteorological summer (Monday - June 1st), models
continue to advertise yet another series of shortwave disturbances
dropping south into New England in the cyclonic flow for the first
half of the new work week. For now, looking at mainly diurnally
driven chances for showers and thunderstorms for early to mid week.
Temperatures are like to remain near normal (lower to middle 70s).

The upper level troughing slides eastward and ridging builds in from
the west resulting in a warming trend for the end of the week and
next weekend.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...

While there will be no favorable wind component for rips today,
a lingering southerly swell around 3 feet at 6s will be enough
for a moderate risk of rip currents for Nassau and Suffolk
County beaches. The swell is expected to have less of an impact
for NYC beaches and the risk will remain low. For Sunday, the
combination of an increasing SW wind and an easterly swell of
3-4 feet at 10s from departing low pressure will result in a
moderate risk for all areas.

Water levels will be on the rise with the arrival of a full
moon later this weekend, and some tidal piling also possible
from offshore low pressure despite offshore flow. A few pockets
of minor coastal flooding is possible along the tidal waterways
of NE NJ and along the south shore back bays of Nassau with the
evening high tides Saturday through Sunday per bias- corrected
blend of ETSS/STOFS/NYHOPS forecasts. However trends have been
inching down, thus holding off on any coastal products /
headlines at this time with mainly ETSS only guidance suggesting
a few minor benchmarks being met.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front is currently moving through the Lower Hudson Valley
and SW CT as of 06Z and will continue to move SE across the
rest of the terminals through 08-09Z for eastern terminals (cold
front will have already moved through western terminals by
06-07Z). Low associated with the front treks east of New England
late tonight into Saturday with high pressure building in from
the northwest late Saturday into Saturday evening.

For most terminals, VFR forecast expected. For KISP, KBDR, and
KGON, a period of MVFR cigs move in from the north from 14Z to
22Z Saturday (ending earlier for KISP and KBDR). Showers may
also be associated with these MVFR conditions, but limited to
KGON. Confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF at
this time.

Regarding winds, they will start off W-NW shifting to the north
towards daybreak Saturday. Gusts overnight near 20-25 kt then
then increasing to around 30-35 kt for Saturday. For terminals east
of NYC, gusts will be closer to 35-40 kt at times. Some peak
gusts to just over 40 kt are possible. Winds decrease Saturday
evening.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind direction changes to more NW to N as well as the
higher gusts could vary 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: VFR. Northerly wind gusts diminish.

Sunday: VFR. NW to W wind with gust 15-20 kt possible.

Monday: VFR. An isolated shower is possible in the afternoon.

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers. MVFR possible at times.
Otherwise VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers may bring
brief MVFR conditions if a shower moves through.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Forecast on track with small craft conditions for all waters through
10z. Gale conditions will develop for the eastern half of the waters
today. I did go ahead and add the central ocean zones and the south
shore bays to gales, with 35kt gusts expected there for a least half
the day. Conditions will then quickly diminish from west to east
this evening and overnight, with sub advisory conditions following
for the remainder of the weekend as 4 ft ocean seas linger. Sub
advisory conditions are then expected to follow through Tuesday
night. Small craft conditions may return for the end of the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-380-383.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335-
     338-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC