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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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153 FXUS61 KOKX 152003 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 403 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry conditions along with seasonable temperatures are expected overall through Tuesday night. 2) Water levels will be close to minor coastal flood benchmarks through Wednesday for the nighttime high tide cycles. 3) Warm front Wednesday into Wednesday night may give a round of showers, isolated thunderstorm. 4) A strong low pressure system will bring a cold front with an increase of winds and make for potential severe weather Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure builds in from the west through tonight. The high pressure area moves into Western Atlantic Tuesday into Tuesday night. Dry conditions expected through Tuesday night with high pressure in control. Temperatures near seasonable average for most locations. Exception tonight with rural outlying locations, radiational cooling, more below average temperatures. Tonight, more vast range of lows, upper 40s to near 50 for the rural outlying locations to lower 60s within parts of NYC. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Still have high astronomical tides through midweek but getting relatively farther away from the new moon so these levels will slightly lower. Water levels close to minor coastal flood benchmarks for high tide cycles at night for portions of western shorelines. Coastal flood statement remains for tonight for parts of NY Harbor, Western Long Island Sound and South Shore Bays shorelines. Offshore flow limits the total water levels tonight but more southerly flow Tuesday night brings the total water levels back up. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Warm air advection aloft will help with development of showers associated with warm front moving in. A thunderstorm will be possible. Instability will be quite limited with the southeast flow. Temperatures cooler Wednesday with more S to SE flow and more maritime influence along the coast. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Strong low pressure moving from Ontario to Quebec Thursday. Models showing low dropping to near 990mb. The cold front will be strong and approach the area. Southerly flow in low levels increases, becomes gusty, making for relatively cooler temperatures across Southern CT and Long Island, warmer across NE NJ, into Lower Hudson Valley and NYC. The cold front approaching will make for increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and cold front moves across Thursday night into early Friday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms lower by late Thursday night. This will be limited CAPE but high shear environment. Possible severe thunderstorms Thursday into early Thursday evening, with main threat being damaging winds. SPC has the 15 percent severe risk for much of the area. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds in through tonight. VFR through the TAF period. NW winds gusting 20-25kt this afternoon with frequent gusts ending at approx 00-02z. Winds diminish further tonight, then back westerly to SW late Tuesday morning. Sea breezes then anticipated Tuesday afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional gusts 26-29kt through this afternoon, then a chance of occasional gusts around 20kt from approx 01-04z. Chance that winds back south of 310 magnetic for short periods of time through 00z at KJFK and KEWR. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday PM: VFR. SW-S gusts 15-20kt possible for coastal terminals. Wednesday: Mainly VFR in the morning. A chance of sub-VFR with possible showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with a chances of sub VFR conditions increasing towards afternoon and evening with showers and thunderstorms. SW gusts around 30kt. Friday: Sub VFR possible early, otherwise VFR. W gusts around 20kt. Saturday: VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Below SCA level conditions are expected through midweek with high pressure influence. SCA level conditions become more likely Thursday into Thursday night with the strong cold front approach and crossing through. Maybe even some possible low end gale force wind gusts are possible Thursday into Thursday night. SCA conditions should last into Thu night on the ocean and the ern Sound and bays of Long Island into Thu evening, with ocean seas 6-8 ft and SW winds gusting to 25-30 kt. Thereafter, 5-7 ft seas should linger on the ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet for the rest of Thu night, with 5-ft seas E of Moriches Inlet still possible daytime Fri. Rip currents: A moderate risk of rip current development is expected today and Tuesday with a lingering 2 to 3 ft light southerly swell. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JC MARINE...Goodman/JM |
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