Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
700 FXUS61 KOKX 120301 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1101 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added tidal areas of NE NJ, Staten Island, and S Queens to the ongoing coastal flood statement, which now also covers the late day/early evening high tide cycles both today and Sunday. Moderate rip current risk forecast for Sunday and Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated evening showers remain possible over interior SW CT. 2) Dry and seasonably warm weather expected Sunday into Monday before hot and humid conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday. 3) Brief minor tidal flooding expected around the times of late day/early evening high tides this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated showers have drifted southward into interior New Haven/Middlesex Counties in CT. Rainfall rates with these may be briefly moderate. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Canadian high pressure will build southeast into the region tonight through Monday. This will result in dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures with comfortable humidity values. Heat and humidity will begin to build as an upper ridge builds in from the west Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Highs will be in the 90s both days with heat index values of 95+ degrees possible areawide Tuesday and most likely on Wednesday, although there is some uncertainty in dew points/mixing depth (lower dew points and more mixing could help limit heat index values). Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon. If the current forecast holds, a Heat Advisory would be needed for Tuesday/Wednesday due to 2 days of apparent temperatures of 95+ degrees. The ridge will begin to break down as an upper trough pushes southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday, which will allow the heat and humidity to decrease late in the week. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The combination of high astronomical tides due to the upcoming new moon on July 14 and a minor of push of water toward the coastline in an E flow this evening and Sunday will bring water levels in some locations to around or just above minor coastal flood benchmarks. The locations that look most susceptible at this time are the more vulnerable locales of coastal Fairfield, southern Nassau/Queens, and tidal areas of NE NJ and Staten Island. A coastal flood statement has been issued for these locations covering the late day/early evening high tide cycles through Sunday evening. The threat may linger longer into early next week as we approach the new moon, however, much of the guidance keeps water levels just below as winds become southerly. This will have to be watched though as we could still skirt near minor flood thresholds. Any flooding at that time would be brief/minor. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds in from the northwest through Sunday. VFR. Chance for showers continues to decrease early this evening. E/SE winds become more variable at times tonight. A light N/E flow becomes established early Sunday morning, veering S into the afternoon. Speeds at or under 10 kt thru the TAF. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday Night: VFR. Light S wind. Monday: VFR. S-SW flow. Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. W-SW gusts 15-20 kt. Thursday: VFR. Light W-SW flow. && .MARINE... Winds/seas will remain below SCA criteria through today as high pressure begins to build in from the northwest. East/northeast winds may briefly increase to 15G20kt as the high builds in late tonight/early Sunday morning which could allow waves to build to 3-4 ft for a few hours. Light southerly flow is expected on Monday with gusts to 20 knots possible Monday evening into Monday night. The next solid chance of SCA conditions will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as southwest winds increase and ocean seas builds to 4-6 ft, highest east. Gusts may approach 30 kt out east during this time. Rip Currents: A moderate risk forecast for Sunday with an continued E-W longshore current dominant environment not too much different from that of today, when many beach reports came in moderate with 2-3 ft wind waves, 1-2-ft S-SE swell, and greater than usual tidal fluctuations due to the upcoming new moon on the 14th. The risk could become low Mon morning, but should rebound to moderate in the afternoon as light S flow increases to 10-15 kt in the afternoon, building wind waves to 3 ft. Rip Current Outlook: There could be a period of high risk spanning late day Tue into part of Wed morning as seas build to 4-6 ft on a SW flow increasing to around 20 kt, and greater than usual tidal fluctuations associated with the upcoming new moon continue. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Goodman AVIATION...DR MARINE...Goodman |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.