What's Happening In Newington

313
FXUS61 KOKX 020620
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
220 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Some rain, mainly light, is expected thru Saturday.

2) A slow-moving frontal system will lead to increasing rain
chances mid-to-late week with decreasing temperatures.
Thunderstorms are also a concern late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
H5 low over ON will drift into QC on Sat. The flow will bring a
wave thru tngt, which will interact with an inverted trof across
the area into Sat mrng. The best dpva is across the nrn portion
of the cwa, so this is where chances for rain are highest tngt,
then as interaction with the trof occurs, further development
swd is possible into Sat mrng. Moisture transport is weak with
this sys, with modeled PWs maxing out at around 3/4 inch. As a
result, QPF is low. There is a chance however that pcpn may be a
bit more widespread and focused on Sat mrng across srn areas due
to the sfc trof, with NBM POPs too low. Still low QPF, but a
little rainier than fcst nonetheless.

The second shot of rain comes late in the day to Sat ngt as low
pres develops offshore and tracks out over the Atlc E of the
benchmark. Based on this expected track which is supported by
the ECMWF, GFS, and AI-GFS, some additional light rain, mainly
the ern half of the cwa, is all that is expected if anything
attm.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A large upper-level trough will gradually amplify over the Great
Plains and Great Lakes Tuesday into Thursday, eventually traversing
the region on Friday. Just east of this trough, a stalled front will
remain situated to our north and west. Several waves of surface low
pressure may pass along it, which will lead to several shots at
rainfall mid to late week.

Tuesday will remain mostly under a ridge that gradually exits east.
Higher heights will lead to warm temperatures with highs in the mid
60s to low 80s across the area. Wednesday will also remain mildly
warm with highs in the 60s and low 70s.

Given warmer air, higher humidity, and a nearby frontal system, rain
chances increase late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a chance for
thunderstorms, as well.

On Thursday, the now amplified longwave trough nears the area which
finally sends the main frontal system through the area. This leads
to more widespread rainfall, but also cooler and milder temperatures
Thursday going into Friday. The 13Z NBM is currently projecting mean
48-hr (Wed AM - Fri AM) rainfall around 1.00" with 90th percentiles
around 1.50" to 2.00".

Winds become quite gusty as well with tightening pressure gradient
between high pressure offshore and approaching frontal system
Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there will likely be some
limitations with the low level warm air advection and less favorable
mixing environment.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front moves through the region into the morning hours.
This frontal boundary stalls east of the area for the rest
thereafter through the rest of the TAF period with a low pressure
area approaching but staying well offshore.

Rain showers continue to move in for NYC terminals and to the north
and west heading into early this morning. Possible MVFR especially
for KSWF. Rain showers then shift to east of NYC terminals for this
morning after 10-12Z. For the morning hours, showers most probable
for KISP, KBDR and KGON. For KGON, rain may be prevalent much of the
TAF period.

Category forecast mainly VFR but higher chances of MVFR at times for
most interior and eastern terminals. This would include KSWF, KBDR,
KGON and KISP. Wind forecast initially SW near 8-10 kt, switching to
more W-NW flow today from west to east without much change in speed.
A few gusts to 15-20 kt are possible. CT terminals could have more
variation in wind direction for today.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts for KEWR and KTEB may end up being more occasional in
frequency.

MVFR possible this morning into early afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Tonight: KGON possible MVFR with mainly light rain. Otherwise VFR.

Sunday: VFR. NW flow 10-15 kt. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Peak gusts to
30 kt possible.

Monday: VFR. SW flow 10-15 kt. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. S-SW flow 10-15 kt. Possible rain showers
mainly north and west of NYC terminals at night. SW wind gusts 20-25
kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers, possible
thunderstorms. S-SW flow 10-15 kt. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain blw SCA lvls thru Sat. Low pres over
the Atlc will bring winds close to SCA lvls on Sun, with seas
on the ocean likely reaching 5 ft criteria. Increasing S flow on
Mon may produce SCA cond on all waters Mon.

Tuesday through Wednesday, SCA conditions are possible due to an
approaching frontal system with some possibility of low-end gales,
as well.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/BR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/BR