NewingtonWeather.COM

700
FXUS61 KOKX 020012
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
812 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe thunderstorm watch has been canceled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorm threat for tonight is now over.

2) Additional chances for thunderstorms Wednesday night and
again on Thursday.

3) Drier conditions expected for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Scattered showers remain this evening, however the severe threat
is now over. Lingering flash flooding over NE NJ should also
subside soon.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An easterly flow will result in a much more stable airmass
across the area on Wednesday. The frontal boundary is expected
to stay south and west of the region before starting to move
back in Wednesday night into Thursday as a warm front.

There is some indication of a potential MCS passing thru the cwa
Wed ngt. Something to watch, although confidence in these
features this far out is low.

The airmass will then warm up and destabilize Thursday in the
warm sector with another chance of strong to severe convection
with the cold front late Thursday afternoon/evening. SPC has
western portions of the area under a marginal/slight risk and
WPC has the entire area under a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A drier pattern will set up Friday into the holiday weekend.
High pressure begins to build in from the north. Mainly dry
conditions are expected. Temperatures fall on Sat close to
normal, then below normal for Sun. Potential for a slight
warming trend on Labor Day. Less humid conditions are also
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front will stall and linger south of the terminals tonight
through Wednesday.

Shower activity will be diminished this evening with
thunderstorms no longer expected. Mostly MVFR to IFR this
evening, lowering to mainly IFR by midnight. Improvement back to
MVFR Weds morning with VFR anticipated mainly east of the city
Weds afternoon.

E-NE winds 10-15 kt, lighter for inland terminals.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing for IFR this evening may be off by 1-2 hours.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR with a shower possible, possibly a
thunderstorm.

Thursday: MVFR or lower at times. Showers and thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon and evening.

Friday-Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the NY Harbor
until midnight, but the main threat will be now through about
9pm.

Winds and seas area generally expected to remain blw SCA lvls
thru the rest of the week. There is a chance that winds on the
Sound approach SCA lvls tngt E of the front, with marginal E
winds on all waters Wed.

Rip Currents:

There is a low risk for rip current development through this
evening. The risk increases to moderate on Wednesday and will
remain moderate on Thursday. 3 to 4 ft swells at 7 second
period. NE winds 10-15 kt on Wednesday shift to the SW on
Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JC/DS
MARINE...DS