NewingtonWeather.COM

843
FXUS61 KOKX 131155
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
755 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Minor coastal flood benchmarks could be briefly reached along
some vulnerable portions of the coastline during the high tide cycle
for this morning/early this afternoon.

2) A cold front moves through towards Wednesday evening bringing
lower humidity and noticeably cooler conditions later in the week.

3) A strong frontal system brings the next round of widespread rain,
and could produce thunderstorms on Friday, followed by strong winds
and chilly temperatures for this time of the year over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Elevated water levels driven by a recent new moon and low pressure
that passed through over the weekend may allow some coastal
locations to briefly touch minor flood stage during the morning and
early afternoon high tide cycle today. Inundation up to a half foot
at the more vulnerable locations cannot be ruled out. However
recent trends do appear a touch lower for some of the western
south shore back bays. Best chances of occurrence remain along
vulnerable spots in S Nassau and along portions of the western
LI Sound in SW CT. Some of the eastern bays of LI may also
approach minor flood benchmarks, but consensus guidance at this
time has water levels remaining below minor benchmarks at most
locations. Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for
southern Nassau and Southern Fairfield. Water levels then look
to fall enough to preclude any further coastal headlines beyond
this cycle.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

For today a back door cold front will linger nearby to the north
with low clouds, drizzle, and sprinkles expected to remain to
the north and northeast. Temperatures will be averaging above
normal for tonight into Wednesday out ahead of a cold front.
Humidity levels will be high with dew point reading primarily in
the lower and middle 60s tonight and into day Wednesday
primarily on a SW flow, which becomes more W later in the day
Wednesday as the cold front draws closer. During Wednesday night
the cold front will push through most likely in the evening
hours. The front should push through primarily dry with only the
low chance of a few sprinkles or light showers associated with
the front. The winds will shift quickly to the NNW immediately
behind the front and much drier and somewhat cooler air will
filter in with noticeably lower humidity by Thursday morning.
High pressure will also draw closer on Thursday resulting in
lighter winds and plenty of sunshine resulting in a pleasant
fall day with temperatures near normal with mainly middle 60s
for daytime highs.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...

The next frontal system will approach Thursday night into Friday
morning. This will bring the next chance of any meaningful rain late
Thursday night into Friday morning. Latest NWP global deterministic
guidance has some disagreement on the placement of comma head
associated rain, as some guidance has the warm front lifting further
north with most of the rain fall north of the area. The
probabilistic guidance is pointing to enough ensemble membership
being further south with the warm frontal rain, and thus carrying
likely PoPs late Thu night into Fri morning at this time. The cold
front is likely to swing through later in the day or by early
evening. This may very well bring with it some heavier showers along
with a few thunderstorms. It remains somewhat early to get into
rainfall amounts, but a solid half inch to one inch of rain is a
good staring point in terms of average rainfall amounts. Amounts
could go up over time if it appears that convective activity is
greater along and ahead of the cold front during the day Friday.
There is some potential for strong winds with, and behind the
frontal passage. Also, behind the front the coolest weather of the
fall is likely to begin the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A back door cold front dropping down into CT and Long Island
this morning will shift back to the northeast as a warm front
this afternoon into tonight.

KGON has already gone MVFR and may be IFR for a few hours late
this morning into this afternoon. MVFR cigs also expected for
most of the day at KBDR. Have trended more optimistically at
KISP with sct low clouds but TEMPO MVFR cigs may be possible
during late morning into early afternoon. Cigs may lower to
LIFR late tonight at KGON but kept low clouds scattered with
winds WSW.

Winds should become ENE 5-10 kt at KGON this morning.
Otherwise, generally light winds should become SE-S 5-10 kt this
afternoon, then SW tonight.

There is a chance that WSW flow increasing to 40-45 kt aloft could
also lead to LLWS tonight, at KSWF by 00Z, the NYC metros by 02Z,
and KISP/KBDR by 03Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR cigs likely to remain to the east this morning and early this
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-18kt late morning and afternoon.

Wednesday night and Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night: Chance of showers with MVFR cond late.

Friday: Showers and possibly an afternoon tstm, with MVFR or lower
cond. S winds 10-15 G20kt in the morning, becoming SW 15-20 G25kt in
the afternoon, with peak gusts up up 30 kt.

Friday night: VFR. NW winds 20-25 G30-35kt.

Saturday: VFR. NW winds 20 G30-35kt. A peak gust up to 40 kt
possible at the NYC metros.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions during today. Small craft conditions
develop tonight for the ocean waters with gusts to 25 kt and
seas mainly 4 to 5 ft, along with small craft conditions for the
south shore bays as well through tonight. On Wednesday small
craft conditions may linger for the eastern ocean waters through
a good portion of the day. Otherwise, behind a cold frontal
passage during early Wednesday night the winds shift to the
north-northwest. Conditions should be mainly sub advisory,
however a period or marginal advisory conditions cannot be ruled
out. Sub advisory conditions follow on Thursday as the pressure
gradient weakens momentarily.

By early Friday morning a SE flow increases with small craft
conditions likely to develop by late morning and midday ahead of a
strong cold front on a southerly flow. Behind the front the winds
quickly shift to the west and northwest with a good chance of gales
developing Friday evening and lasting through the day Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JE/MW