What's Happening In Newington

634
FXUS61 KOKX 220707
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
307 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Only some adjustments made to the small
craft advisories currently in place.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The chance of some scattered thunderstorms capable of producing
localized brief heavy rainfall today, mainly for eastern portions of
the area.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents for ocean beaches through
Thursday (see marine section below).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
With the area still in a humid air mass today, there will remain the
chance of scattered thunderstorm activity. However, unlike yesterday
there will be less forcing in place. Thus, activity should be a lot
less widespread. Also, the relatively higher PWATs will align
across eastern / southeastern portions of the area. As the cold
front draws closer this afternoon scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity will attempt to initiate. The CAMs aren`t overly bullish
with their reflectivity forecasts, however there is enough guidance
suggestive that some activity initiates. Any thunderstorms would
produce locally heavy rain and potentially some strong wind gusts.
An axis of instability is also progged to extend into SE portions of
the area with CAPE values around 1000-1500 j/kg. The front is not
expected to clear the region until sometime this evening, and may
move a bit slower than currently indicated on WPC progs. Therefore
carry chance and slight chance PoPs for eastern portions of the area
until 00z this evening. Any impacts from any storms is expected to
be less than yesterday, and should be mainly of the localized minor
variety with the forward speed of any convection expected to be
somewhat faster than yesterday. By later tonight into Thursday
morning as the cold front gets further east drier and less humid air
will slowly begin to filter in from the north and west.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front passes through this afternoon into early evening.

VFR-MVFR conditions are likely through the morning push. Can`t rule
out IFR east of the city terminals during this period. From late
morning onward, VFR, but a chance of TSTMS and MVFR this afternoon.

SW winds 10-15kt with gust around 20kt. Winds veer west late this
afternoon, then NW this evening as they diminish and lose gusts.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR could prevail through much of the morning push. Occasional
gusts 16-20kt possible during the morning push as well.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday - Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories have been discontinued for the western non-
ocean waters including the majority of LI Sound as winds are no
longer consistently expected to gust to 25 kt. Small craft
conditions are expected for the south shore bays into most of this
afternoon. Small craft conditions should persist until early
Thursday morning on the ocean waters with seas remaining elevated
and lingering at or close to 5 ft Thursday morning. Otherwise sub
advisory conditions prevail into the day Thursday through the
weekend as high pressure settles over the waters before weakening
and pushing offshore towards Sunday.

Rip Currents: A high rip current risk remains in place through
Thursday. Some areas could come close to high surf criteria, mainly
for today. At this time it appears that surf heights will fall just
short of surf advisory criteria with the swell direction
becomes less orthogonal to the coastline by the time the swell
height and period increase, thus limiting the threat of high
surf conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/JC