Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
370 FXUS61 KOKX 051139 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 739 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A later trend for showers and thunderstorms continues for today and tonight, with today mostly dry. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Potential for scattered afternoon/early evening heavy downpour and thunderstorm activity from tonight into early next week. 2. Hot and very humid from Thursday into Monday, with the highest heat and humidity Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Potential for scattered diurnal convection should persist from tonight into early next week as region lies on the NW edge of Bermuda ridging, with shortwave energy riding up the ridge itself and then also approaching from the west this weekend into early next week as the ridge weakens. The ridge will help usher in a very warm and very humid air mass into the region Thu into early next week, with deep SW flow and H8 temps rising to 18-20C. Guidance depicts best forcing mainly south/west of NYC today. Additionally, not expecting any significant moisture advection (aside from the thin layer near the surface due to the sea breeze) until after sunset today. Current fcst carries only slight chance late day PoP for portions of NE NJ, then better chances tonight. As the moisture builds particularly from Thursday onward, this will present an isolated severe and flash flood threat, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Storm motions are expected to be moderate through this period (20-30 kt), so it may come down to whether will be any training of storms or if brief very heavy downpours occur over the most flood vulnerable locations. The WPC marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday through Saturday is reasonable. The severe threat for Thu looks only marginal well inland. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Very warm and very humid for Thursday into the weekend. Temps on Thu/Fri should rise to at least to the upper 80s/lower 90s if not a little warmer in the urban corridor of NE NJ/NYC metro, with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This should yield widespread heat index values of 95+ across the entire CWA, and as high as 100-105 for NYC metro, coastal CT, and most of Long Island except the south fork and immediate south shore. MOS continues to run higher on temps and lower on dewpoints than NBM, but with similar heat index values. A heat advisory will be needed for this time frame. For Sat-Mon, heat index values should reach the mid/upper 90s across the NYC metro area and across most of Long Island and the I-95 corridor of southern CT. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure over the area this morning weakens with a weak frontal system slowly approaching from the south from the late afternoon and into tonight. Mainly VFR through 00-06z Thursday. Isolated SHRA or TSRA possible after 20Z, mainly for westernmost terminals like KTEB and KEWR. Towards 00z Thursday a few showers and storms could get as far north as KSWF. MVFR cigs move in after 06Z Thursday for most terminals. VFR returns after 12-15Z on Thursday. Winds remain light and variable in direction at times through the morning. Another round of southerly winds is expected for the afternoon mainly due to a sea breeze influence. Some terminals further west and inland may be more SW. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments not expected through this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Thursday through Saturday: MVFR or lower flight cat at times in showers/tstms, highest chance for western terminals. Winds mainly S-SW. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Could see a period of winds/seas approaching 25 kt and 5 ft on the ocean waters W of Moriches Inlet from late day into the evening on Thu. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is expected for today as SSE swells continue to subside closer to 3 ft. The moderate risk should continue through most of Thursday, however it may increase to high at some beaches toward evening as southerly winds and swells increase. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Goodman AVIATION...MW MARINE...Goodman |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.