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655
FXUS61 KOKX 312355
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
755 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisory issued for coastal CT, southern Westchester, and
eastern Long Island for tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread frost expected outside of the NYC/NJ metro area,
with scattered freeze conditions possible, tonight into early
Sunday morning. Otherwise, dry and increasingly mild
conditions should continue into mid mid next week.

2) The next chance of a wetting rain will be late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The driest stretch of the year so far will persist in response
to confluent NW upper flow this weekend, giving way to East
Coast upper ridging thru mid week. At the surface, modified
Canadian high pressure builds overhead through Sunday, and then
passes gradually offshore through mid week.

Widespread frost expected and freeze conditions possible across
eastern Long Island, southern CT and southern Westchester
county tonight into early Sunday morning under good radiational
cooling conditions. The one caveat will be the northeastward
progression of a cirrus deck over the Ohio/Tennessee Rivers
Valleys associated with shearing central US shortwave, and to a
lesser extent an upper jet streak aloft and a weak northern
stream shortwave moving through northern New England.
Although frost/freeze conditions are expected across areas to
the north of this, the frost/freeze program has already ended
for these interior areas. The frost/freeze program will end for
Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Southern Westchester, Coastal
Connecticut, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Union Sunday
morning. Latest model trend is for a slower progression of the
cirrus deck, giving more confidence in issuing a frost
advisory for tonight. In addition, temps last night were colder
than the deterministic and MOS guidances, resulting in temps
falling into the mid/upper 30s across the advisory area.
With better radiational cooling conditions tonight would expect
even cooler temps tonight.

For Sunday, expect mostly sunny skies (although an increasing
cirrus deck may filter sunshine), dry and seasonably cool.
High temps will be slightly milder than those of Sat, generally
in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

Slightly milder temps for Sunday night/early Mon AM compared to
tonight with light return flow developing. This does bring
potential for patchy fog in addition to patchy frost
conditions for outlying areas.

Conditions gradually moderate early to mid next week as heights
rise aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return SW
flow. High temps will incrementally rise through the 60s each
day, to near 10 degrees above seasonable (upper 60s/lower 70s)
by Wed/Thu. Similarly, overnight lows will rise from the 30s/40s
Mon morning to 50s/near 60 by Thu morning (close to normal
high temps for parts of the area this time of year).


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
General NWP/AI model agreement in NW Pacific troughing slowly
moving E-SE into the central CONUS through the early/mid next
week, but then considerable spread (even more than 24 hr ago)
on trough evolution as it moves towards the east coast late
week/weekend. Sensitivity lying in evolution of NW PAC trough
and upstream Aleutian trough, and possibly partial phasing with
offshore SE US trough/closed low. Scenarios range from the
central US trough remaining influenced by the northern stream
and approaching as a closed low towards the NE/Mid Atlantic US
East coast late week/weekend, or base of central US trough
detaching from northern stream and drifting across the SE US, or
variations in between.

There is general agreement on a frontal system and/or low
pressure affecting the area late in the week into the weekend
with a wetting rainfall, but with inherently low predictability
on timing and sensible weather details this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the period.

VFR. NW winds 5-10 kt will become light N this evening into
Sunday morning, then back NW-W during the late morning and W-SW
in the afternoon. Coastal terminals should see some sea breeze
enhancement and/or winds backing a little more southerly in the
afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: Patchy ground fog possible late at or near the
Long Island/Hudson Valley/CT terminals, otherwise VFR.

Monday through Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower cond possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA cond should continue on all waters through Wed night as
high pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient. Hazardous
seas over 5 ft are possible on the ocean waters out 20 nm Thu
into Thu night via increasing S-SE flow ahead of an approaching
frontal system.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ071-078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...NV/BG