What's Happening In Newington

192
FXUS61 KOKX 261119
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
719 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the
ocean waters and south shore bays through Monday morning. Otherwise,
no significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier conditions today as precipitation comes to an end, with
near normal temperatures.

2) Persistent chances for rain with an unsettled, cool pattern in
place through late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Sprawling upper low pulls away later today, albeit slowly, off the
coast of MA.  Rain should come to an end from west to east this
morning, as the associated surface trough also pulls east.  KOKX 88D
as of early morning showing rain activity becoming more scattered in
nature from NYC on north and west, with a solid batch still working
through central LI and southern CT. According to recent NYS mesonet
and micronet stations along with local ASOS, a widespread 1.25" -
1.5" of rainfall has been observed across much of the area from the
event with a few more hours of light rain to go.

Most of the guidance/CAMs are in agreement that rain becomes lighter
around daybreak and ends completely across the area by mid-morning.
Surface high pressure begins to fill in behind the departing low
with drier air advecting in.  Clouds should begin to dissipate as
well by midday, with perhaps some breaks in the clouds and sun
returning by afternoon as the low and associated frontal system
exit.

Model soundings are depicting a well mixed PBL by later this
afternoon which should result in some E/NE wind gusts 20-25mph into
later afternoon. These should subside after 00Z and winds become
light as the gradient relaxes and the high builds in.  Under clear
and nearly calm conditions, lows should drop into upper 30s and
lower 40s CWA wide.  Some patchy frost is possible across the
interior, especially the Lower Hudson Valley, where radiative
cooling is maximized.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Global ensemble guidance such as GEFS/EC-AIFS etc. continue to
advertise anomalously low h5 heights with a mean trough over the
east coast into next weekend. Best chance of rain is Wednesday into
early Thursday as sfc low pressure passes to the south and offshore.

The mean trough may end up cutting off nearby into late week with
strong blocking south of Greenland, keeping at least a chance for
rain around along with cooler temperates.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As low pressure departs this morning, high pressure builds into
the area this afternoon into tonight.

MVFR ceiling may linger today until midday. Then, VFR for the
remainder of the TAF period.

Today, winds will be NE/ENE 9-12 kt with gusts 17-22 kt. Gusts
diminish late afternoon then winds drop below 10 kt by the
evening. Tonight, winds will be 5 kt or less from the north with
some sites going light and variable. Tomorrow, NE 8-11 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts today may be less frequent.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Best chance looks to be late Wednesday.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR in showers. NW G15-20kt

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NE flow will be increasing from west to east today, and slowly
diminishing tonight as low pressure moves well to the east. As a
result, SCA conditions will be developing on the ocean waters and
south shore bays today into tonight. Small Craft Advisories have
been issued for the ocean and southern bays and will continue
through early Monday at this time.

Then seas will remain elevated on the ocean waters into Tuesday with
a persistent NE flow. Seas on the ocean may linger aoa 5 ft through
at least Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DBR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DBR