What's Happening In Newington

229
FXUS61 KOKX 190555
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1255 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front passes through the area late morning into the
afternoon. High pressure then briefly builds in for the start of the
weekend. A weak warm front passes nearby late Saturday into Saturday
night followed by a cold front Sunday morning. A secondary cold
front then passes Sunday night. High pressure returns Monday.
Another frontal system looks to impact the region Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecasted impacts for the frontal system today remain mainly on
track, with only minor adjustments made through tonight.

Key Messages:

* A strong cold front will move through near noontime on today,
  bringing strong to locally damaging winds and moderate to heavy
  rain, along with isolated thunderstorms.

* Potential tying or record breaking temperatures early Friday fall
  back into the 20s Friday night, to below normal levels. Any
  leftover moisture may freeze if drying does not occur.

Rainfall has begun already in some locations and will continue to
increase in coverage through the morning hours. Strong low level jet
lift and moisture convergence, plus a potential convective element
with elevated instability, could cause the rain to be heavy at
times. The heaviest rainfall likely occurs an hour or two after
sunrise with some impacts to the morning commute with the threat
continuing until the cold front passes through late morning/early
afternoon with a line of convectively-enhanced showers. Areas of
minor/poor drainage flooding are anticipated. Flash flooding is not
a concern at this point with the system pushing through fairly
quickly and the liquid equivalent of any remaining snow pack is
probably no more than a tenth of an inch. Still a chance of a shower
in the afternoon behind the cold front, and maybe even some snow
mixed in well NW of the city towards sundown.

Regarding winds, an 80-90kt low level jet at 925mb shifts through
much of the coastal area during Friday morning. Forecast soundings
however show a strong low level inversion which has kept winds from
mixing down for much of the area so far this morning. It appears
that winds are going to have a tough time mixing down to the surface
for much of the day. It might take surface temps reaching 60 degrees
to get mixing deep enough to bring down gusts strong enough for high
wind warning consideration, and some spots may warm up close to
this. Thinking is that about 50% of the 925mb jet winds could still
mix down anyway, which translates to higher-end wind advisory gusts,
but cannot completely rule out a gust or two that reaches warning
criteria. Not enough confidence that the occurrence would be
widespread enough to warrant a high wind warning, but will keep
messaging the threat of isolated 60mph gusts in the advisory. No
change to the end time of the advisory, but can`t rule out 46mph+
gusts for a couple of hours after midnight.

High temperatures occur in the morning generally in the mid to upper
50s. This is close to record high temperatures for the day. See the
climate sections below for these records. Temps then fall somewhat
with the rainfall by midday, then fall more steadily in the
afternoon with the start of cold air advection behind the front. A
more rapid drop in the temperatures then happens this evening as the
advection strengthens behind the front. Depending on how much winds
can dry out surfaces before temps fall below freezing in the
evening, there could be spots where freezing of standing water
occurs.

Dry weather for Friday night with high pressure building in. Winds
will gradually diminish overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Mainly dry weather this weekend though winds remain gusty.

A high pressure ridge shifts through the region Saturday afternoon
and keeps us dry through Saturday night. A warm front looks to push
through late on Saturday. Any precip with weak warm advection at
night should remain to our north. Saturday`s high temperatures are
expected to be just below normal.

Another cold front pushes in early on Sunday with a secondary cold
front pushing through Sunday night. No precipitation is anticipated
with these frontal passages, though winds will remain quite gusty
from the W/NW with gusts upwards of 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Mainly dry conditions are expected through Monday. Precipitation
  returns to the forecast on Tuesday of next week.

* A frigid airmass moves in on Monday. Temperatures become more
  seasonable by midweek.

A frigid airmass moves in for Monday with high temperatures only in
the low 30s.

High pressure on Monday shifts offshore overnight, allowing the
winds to relax and shift out of the SW on the back side of the high.
Meanwhile, mid-level energy passing well north of the area will
allow for a surface frontal system to impact the area on Tuesday.
Precipitation is expected to move in early Tuesday and may begin as
snow depending on surface temperatures. Marginal surface
temperatures during the day Tuesday may allow for a rain/snow mix
over much of the area in the morning, eventually transitioning to
mainly a light rain into the afternoon. A lot of the precipitation
types will depend on the timing of the frontal system, with an
earlier pass-through allowing for more snow than rain, but either
way, QPF and precip intensity look to be light so any significant
impacts are not expected.

The system pushes east as it intensifies on Wednesday, allowing for
high pressure to once again build into the area. Another weak and
progressive shortwave may pass nearby on Christmas Day, but guidance
is much too variable to hone down any details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong cold front approaches overnight and passes through the area
from late morning into the afternoon.

Ceilings will continue to lower to MVFR/IFR overnight as showers
increase in coverage and intensity as a warm front approaches.
Showers will be moderate to heavy in the morning and in association
with line of showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms along the
cold front late morning into the afternoon. Conditions are expected
to become VFR behind the cold front with chance of MVFR for 1-3
hours following its passage.

ESE to SE winds less than 10 kts will gradually veer to the south
and then start increasing, especially during the early morning
hours, reaching 20-30 kt with gusts 35-45 kt near 12Z. The highest
winds will be at the coastal terminals with isolated gusts around
50kt possible. Winds decrease slightly with the cold frontal passage
as they back to the W. Winds then increase late in the afternoon
into the evening push with sustained around 15-25kt and gusts 35-40
kt. There could be isolated higher gusts as well, especially around
00Z with another surge of strong winds with the system.

Southerly low-level wind shear overnight through the morning with
winds 50-70 kt at 1500 to 2000 ft AGL.

In addition, there could localized higher winds with embedded
thunderstorms, especially along a line associated with the cold
front. Coverage and probability are too low to include in TAFs at
this time.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely through this afternoon due the timing of
flight categories, wind shifts, and gusts.

Cold front is showing a trend toward being faster, which would
result in a faster timing of winds shifting to the SW-W as well as
the potential heavier showers along the front.

Peak gusts around 50 kt possible around 12Z-16Z and in the early
afternoon with the cold front. Chance for isolated peak gusts around
45-50 kt in the late afternoon/evening behind the front.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Late Friday Night: VFR with W-WNW gusts gradually subsiding.

Saturday: VFR. Decreasing WNW winds becoming SW late in the day.

Sunday: VFR. W winds gusting 20-30 kt.

Monday: VFR with diminishing NW flow.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with chances for -SN/-RA/-RASN.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters through Friday night.
Isolated gusts up to 50 kt are possible Friday morning. Once the
warning expires, a SCA will likely be needed on the ocean waters
through at least Saturday morning, then gusts here may approach 30
kt once again Saturday night. SCA to near gale conditions are likely
on the oceans Saturday night into Sunday with widespread SCA likely
on the non-ocean waters by Sunday. SCA conditions likely persist on
all waters through Monday morning before gradually dissipating
Monday afternoon and evening. SCA conditions return on waters midday
day to afternoon on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Brief heavy rain will be possible Friday morning with showers moving
across, as well as with any embedded thunderstorms that may occur
into the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front. These will be
quick moving and as such, are not expected to result in significant
accumulations of rainfall. Around 3/4 to 1 1/3 inches of rainfall,
with locally higher amounts, are expected. While hourly rainfall
rates will mainly be around 0.25 in/hr or lower, heavier showers and
thunderstorms may produce rates closer to 0.50-0.75 in/hr.

Outside of minor flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas in
localized areas where multiple rounds of heavy downpours are
received, no other hydrologic impacts are expected.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Saturday through Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A new moon occurring Friday evening will result in as little as
1 3/4 ft of surge causing minor coastal flooding and 2 1/2 ft
causing moderate impacts. A high end gale south-southeast flow
ahead of a strong frontal system will bring likelihood for
widespread minor coastal flooding during the Friday morning high
tide cycle for our Tri-State south facing coasts and even
tidally affected rivers (Hackensack and Hudson R), with
localized moderate along the southern bays of Queens and W LI.

Models are in good agreement with peak winds occurring during
the time of high tide for much of the region, with frontal
passage occurring after high tide. This has increased the
potential for widespread minor coastal flooding across
vulnerable coastal locales along NY/NJ harbor, Jamaica Bay,
great South Bay, twin forks of LI, and coastal Westchester/CT.
Water levels will likely get close to moderate flood levels
along Jamaica Bay and western Great South Bay, combined with
rain and wave impacts, during morning commute, a coastal flood
warning has been issued for exacerbated flood impacts.
Otherwise, coastal flood advisories have been expanded into
southern CT (wave action of 3-5 ft during high tide), E Bergen
County and NE Suffolk County for similar reasoning as
above/below.

With S/SE gales ramping up through the time of high tide
(favorable direction for surge along south facing coasts), high wave
action onto open water coasts, and potential coincidence of
heavy rain, this forecast has been leaned towards the higher end
of plausible scenarios. A blend between SNAP-EX 50th percentile
(NYHOPS 95th percentile), ETSS and STOFS was used.

Offshore winds behind the cold front will end the coastal flood
threat with subsequent high tides.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

December 19:
KEWR: 60/1931
KBDR: 57/1967
KNYC: 58/1931
KLGA: 57/1957
KJFK: 56/1967
KISP: 55/2017

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for CTZ005>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for CTZ009>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ072-074-075.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ080-178-179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EST this morning for
     NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...