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374
FXUS61 KOKX 051431
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1031 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Conditions turn cooler and more comfortable for the holiday
weekend. A few showers remain possible this afternoon and
evening, mainly across southern Connecticut and Long Island.


2) After a tranquil stretch of weather early next week, unsettled
conditions return Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Closed low trough centered over the Canadian Maritimes digs
into the Northeast to start the holiday weekend. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure slowly builds south from Canada, ushering
in a drier, cooler air mass.

Abundant sunshine to start the day transitions into more of a
mix of sun and clouds by afternoon with the steep low level
lapse rates from the cold pool aloft and cyclonic flow. In
addition, a spoke of energy pivoting around the digging trough
rotates in from the north and east, likely helping to instigate
scattered shower activity later this afternoon. Hi res guidance
continues to place the bulk of coverage across S CT, before
drifting south and west into the early evening hours. Despite
the drier environment, a locally heavy downpour or two can`t be
ruled out, but thunderstorms appear unlikely given the profiles.
The activity should begin to dissipate after sunset, though a
few remnant showers could drift linger into the evening. Not
everyone will see wet weather and many farther west likely
remain entirely dry.

Today will be the warmest of the weekend, though cooler than the
past several days. H850 temps progged 10-12C should yield highs
within a couple of degrees of 80, on par with climatology for
early September. And with the dry northerly flow, dew pts have
fallen into the upper 50s and low 60s, which will feel noticeably
less humid and much more comfortable compared to recent days.

Sunday offers a taste of early autumn as temperatures and dew
pts continue to fall. Highs on Sunday likely top out in the low
to mid 70s for most, with continued lower humidity. Dry conditions
prevail with no rain expected, but diurnal cu returns with the
lingering trough.

Labor Day morning likely starts cool and crisp, with some 40s
possible in the coldest locales, mainly far interior and LI Pine
Barrens, and 50s elsewhere. Opted to blend in the cooler MAV/MET
data given the potential for efficient radiative cooling that
could allow many to fall below national blended guidance.
Temperatures rebound into the 70s to around 80 in the afternoon,
with abundant sunshine and low humidity expected.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Surface high pressure continues to settle overhead through
Tuesday, maintaining dry weather and light flow. Temperatures
gradually warm with ridging aloft building in from the west and
afternoon highs get back into the 80s.

By midweek, SW flow develops well ahead of an approaching frontal
system and conditions begin to turn more unstable and offer the
next chance for rain in the forecast period. At this point, it`s
too early to discuss specific hazards, but periods of showers
and thunderstorms are possible in the late Wednesday into Thursday
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A trough of low pressure pushes through from the NE late today
into tonight. High pressure builds in from the NW on Sunday.

Mainly VFR. Showers are possible, mainly east of the NYC metro
terminals, after 20z through this evening with brief MVFR
possible. There is also a chance for MVFR ceilings late tonight
into Sunday morning.

NNW-N winds around 10 kt or less will shift to the NE tonight.

       NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance for a shower this evening, but not enough confidence
to include mention in TAF at this time.

Chance of MVFR ceilings after 06z tonight through around 15z
Sunday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. SW gusts around 20 kt and shower possible
with MVFR at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Tuesday.

Thereafter, SW winds increase ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Wind gusts on the coastal waters may begin to exceed SCA
criteria (25 kt) Wednesday afternoon, which could linger through
Thursday. Gale conditions are possible during this time,
particularly on the ocean. Ocean seas likely build to 5-8 ft as
well. These conditions could linger into at least part of Thursday
before subsiding.

Rip Currents:

A lack of significant wind or swell will lead to a low rip current
risk through at least Sunday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...JC/DS
MARINE...DR