NewingtonWeather.COM

543
FXUS61 KOKX 280256
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1056 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has expired and the Flood Watch
has been cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Reduced threat for flash flooding and severe thunderstorms
overnight.

2) After another chance of thunderstorms on Friday, a dry and
seasonable forecast for the weekend, with a warming trend early next
week.

3) High risk for rip currents at the Atlantic facing beaches
through this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The main cold front was still across upstate NY into Canada this
eve. As a result, there will still be chances for shwrs and
tstms to develop thru the overnight, particularly nwrn areas
where a swath of storms are ongoing. Severe chances are lower
now that sfc heating is lost and some of the area has been
worked over, however isold severe will still be possible if
tstms pool available instability. The Severe Watch has been
allowed to expire. The flood threat follows the same logic, and
as a result the Flood Watch has been cancelled. Although storm
motion will be slow, coverage and intensity are the limiting
factors overnight.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Cold pool aloft with main cold frontal passage Friday may spark a
few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially across southern
CT and and LoHud. Coverage looks isolated and mainly sub severe, at
this point.

Otherwise, mainly zonal flow behind the late week system turns into
weak ridging by late Saturday into Sunday as heights aloft rise.
Skies will clear with northerly flow on Saturday, and dry conditions
lasting into Sunday. Winds turn southerly on Sunday as the sfc high
moves offshore, and dewpoints climb a few degrees relative to
Saturday. Otherwise, near to slightly below normal temperatures both
days, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heights continue to
build into early next week, with increasing temperatures.  Heat
indices may approach 90F for the urban corridor Monday and Tuesday.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Winds 15-20 kt combined with a building swell out of the S/SE
will bring a high risk of rip currents through this evening.

With the swell gradually weakening and generally no significant
wind component, the high rip current risk lowers to moderate on
Friday and to low on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will approach tngt and pass on Fri.

Shwrs and tstms will be more limited in coverage and intensity
overnight. VFR thru about 4-6Z, then chances for MVFR or lower
in stratus and/or fog especially ern areas. Any shwrs and tstms
will produce MVFR or lower.

Isold-sct shwrs and tstms possible thru about 21Z on Fri ahead
of the fropa, then no rain thereafter. Mainly VFR Fri as a
result and VFR Fri ngt.

Mainly S/VRB winds tngt, then winds become NW behind the front
on Fri. Speeds are mrgnl to hold off the sea breeze, so some
variability in wind direction likely late Fri mrng thru the
aftn. Indicated a hybrid W/SW flow for many spots. Flow then
NW/VRB Fri ngt with speeds blw 10kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isold-sct tstms possible overnight, but the prob was too low to
include in the TAFs.

Variability in wind direction likely on Fri, although speeds
mainly blw 10kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR with lgt winds.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in showers
and/or thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub small craft conditions are expected through the week.

Southerly flow increases late Wednesday night into Thursday, with
ocean seas getting to around 4 ft and gusts approaching 20 kt.
Otherwise, sub advisory conditions prevail with seas and winds
diminishing for the weekend with a light pressure gradient with high
pressure building across for the weekend.


Rip Currents:

With the swell gradually weakening and generally no significant
wind component, the high rip current risk lowers to moderate on
Friday and to low on Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$