What's Happening In Newington

471
FXUS61 KOKX 091737
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1237 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated chances for showers today into tonight.
Stronger winds appear likely for Sunday afternoon into Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dual frontal systems bring periods of rain from late
afternoon into tonight, then again from Saturday afternoon into
Sunday. Rain will become moderate to locally heavy Saturday
afternoon and evening, but flooding concerns remain minimal.

2) A cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon will bring windy
conditions for Sunday afternoon into Monday, and temperatures
closer to normal from Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Temperatures have risen above freezing, with just pockets of
near freezing temperatures across interior southern
Connecticut, and the Special Weather Statement was allowed to
expire. High temps have been running higher than NBM of late, so
went slightly warmer for today, with highs in the lower/mid
50s.

High pressure moves out into the Atlantic and a cold front
approaches from the west, clouds will increase today, with rain
arriving during the late afternoon via isentropic lift and weak
mid level shortwave forcing as heights fall aloft. Updated the
probabilities for this afternoon into tonight based on the CAMs
which seem to have good handle on timing and areal extent of
precipitation with a cold front moving across the region, and
converted to showers and areal wording to convey light and
scattered nature of precipitation with the cold front. The cold
front then stalls off the Delmarva coast by daybreak Saturday.
Rain then returns by Sat afternoon as heights again rise aloft
and the front lifts back north as a warm front. A weak wave
forming along the front over the Mid Atlantic region should also
pass either over or just south of Long Island Saturday night.

Rainfall may briefly become moderate to locally heavy Saturday
afternoon and evening via isentropic lift from the warm front,
enhanced convergence via LLJ ahead of the sfc low, more
favorable jet dynamics aloft, and PW exceeding 1 inch. Siding
more with global models which are quicker than the NAM to bring
this wave across and heavier with rainfall.

Rain will taper off from late Sat night into Sunday morning as
the wave along the front pulls away. Kept chance PoP going
mainly E of NYC through the day on Sunday as GFS indicates
potential for another offshore wave developing along the front
to keep rain going there longer.

Rainfall will range from 0.5 to 1 inch NW of NYC, to 1 to 1.5
inches for Long Island and SE CT.

With the area remaining in the cool sector on Sat, high temps will
be in the 40s. Eastern Long Island could make it into the lower
50s if the sfc wave were to pass directly over the Island and
briefly put the east end in the warm sector.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front passing through through Sunday afternoon will be
followed by a tightening pressure gradient and strong pressure
rises. As a result have trended winds upward from the previous
forecast, with gusts 30-35 mph late day Sunday into Sunday
night, and cannot rule out some gusts over 40 mph in the NYC
metro area.

Temperatures for Sunday night through Mon night will be closer
to normal, with lows in the 20s and lower 30s, and highs either
side of 40.

Temps should begin to warm up again for Tue and Wed as heights
rise aloft and a SW return flow starts to develop, with highs in
the 40s and lows mostly in the 30s. A cold frontal passage Wed
night into Thu should bring temps closer to normal, as well as
the the chance for some rain/snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A series of frontal systems will impact the terminals through
Saturday night.

Varying flight categories from VFR to MVFR this afternoon will
prevail MVFR by early evening. Showers are then possible along
with IFR, 21/22z-01/02z west and 23/00z-03/04z east. There is
also potential for brief LIFR, especially east of NYC metro
terminals. MVFR/IFR may linger through 05/06z before improving
to VFR thereafter.

SE-S winds 10-15 kt with a few gusts around 20 kt this
afternoon. Winds will gradually veer to the SW this evening with
winds generally 10 kt or less. Winds shift to the NW and may
briefly increase to 10-15 kt before becoming NE and diminishing
under 10 kt early Saturday morning.

LLWS expected this evening.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR ceilings bkn015 to bkn020 may prevail this afternoon

A few gusts around 20 kt possible through 21z.

Amendments possible for changing ceilings, visibilities, and
timing of -SHRA this evening.

Timing of wind shifts overnight/early Saturday may be off by 1-2
hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Afternoon-Night: Rain developing with IFR or lower
likely by evening, continuing through the night.

Sunday: Chance of rain and MVFR/IFR in the morning. W winds
G25-30 kt in the afternoon.

Monday: VFR. WNW wind G20-25 kt in the morning.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet today with gradually increasing S flow. S flow on the
ocean peaks at 20 kt with a a few gusts up to 25 kt on the
ocean this evening, with SCA cond E of Fire Island Inlet, as
seas build to 5-6 ft. Winds diminish late tonight with a cold
frontal passage, while seas subside below 5 ft by daybreak Sat.

SCA cond should return to the ocean waters Sat night into
Sunday morning with the approach of a warm front and wave of low
pressure, with seas building to 5-6 ft. SCA cond expected on
all waters by Sat afternoon after a cold frontal passage, with
WNW winds gusting to 25-30 kt and ocean seas building to 5-7
ft. Winds increase further Sat night, with gales possible on all
waters especially the ocean, with gusts 35-40 kt, and seas up to
6-11 ft on the ocean and 5-7 ft on the central/ern Sound.

Gales may last into Mon AM on the ern ocean waters, otherwise
SCA cond continue on all ocean waters daytime Mon, and on the
ocean into Mon night. Lingering 25-kt gusts and seas up to 5 ft
may be possible on the ern ocean waters on Tue.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Goodman