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Updated:  14-Nov-2026 1:00am 
 
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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY

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754
FXUS61 KOKX 140529
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1229 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast since the last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of light rain persist this evening with drier
conditions expected overnight. No significant impacts expected.

2) An extended stretch of dry weather is expected for much of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface low pressure southeast of Long Island will continue to
slowly slide eastward. Meanwhile, upper level troughing will remain
over the region through much of the weekend.

Spotty light rain mainly over the western portions of the
forecast area should be winding down heading toward midnight
with dry conditions anticipated late tonight.

The region however will remain under an upper level trough for much
of the weekend, so while conditions dry out, expect partly to mostly
cloudy skies for much of the weekend.

With a northwest flow expect temperatures to remain cool this
weekend with high temperatures in the 40s on Saturday and upper
40s and lower 50s on Sunday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The upper level trough over the region slides eastward late this
weekend into early Monday. It will be replaced by a large area of
high pressure. This will result in an extended period of dry
weather for much of the week.

Temperatures are expected to gradually rise each day next week, with
a return to above normal temperatures Wednesday-Friday as heights
rise aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds in behind departing low pressure.

VFR.

NNW-NW winds. Gusts bcmg frequent starting 14-16z, mostly
20-25kt. Speeds diminish a little tonight with gusts ending this
evening for most terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts 25 to 30 kt possible during the afternoon
hours. Winds probably prevail right/north of 310 magnetic most
of the TAF period, but could be left/south of it at times in the
afternoon, especially at KEWR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...

Late tonight: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt at the city terminals.

Sunday: VFR with NW winds G20kt.

Monday-Wednesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small crafts remain on the inner ocean waters through Saturday
night. It is possible the Small crafts may need to be extended
into Saturday night or Sunday, however right now, conditions
look to remain marginal. Expect wind gusts to 25-30kt along
with 5-7 ft seas through early Saturday, then winds and seas
fall, but remain right at SCA levels.

Winds and seas look to remain below SCA criteria for much of
next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DR/JC
MARINE...

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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