What's Happening In Newington

613
FXUS61 KOKX 270230
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic rain showers possible late tonight into Saturday.

2) High heat and humidity becoming increasingly likely from mid to
late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers with a weak wave of low pressure passing to the south
as the cold front passes through should move in late tonight and
continue on/off into Sat. Most of this activity should be on
the light side, but may have to keep an eye on NE NJ in the
afternoon where 12Z HREF signals 10-20% low probability of an
inch of rain. No more than nuisance issues expected with this
activity if/where it occurs.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A highly anomalous amplified upper flow will be featured across
the country during this time, with a trough out west and a a
high centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Heights are
greater than 594 dm, about 2 SD above normal, and 85H temps on
Thursday on the latest 12Z GFS are at or above 22C. Trends the
last 24h has shown the upper ridge to be a bit stronger across
the Northeast in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. That
being said, there is still some uncertainty with the strength
and magnitude as disturbances round the ridge across the
Northeast. The 12Z GFS is still supporting a convective complex
dropping across the Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, sending a back door cold front through the area.
The spread between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles is over 10
degrees from NYC up into SW CT and generally over 8 for much of
the area on Wednesday. The spread decreases some Thursday and
into Friday, which look to be the hottest days of the week.
A compromise was made between the warmer NBM and global
consensus. The key point here is confidence is increasing for
high heat and humidity with a potential Heat Advisory or higher
level event.

Highs Thursday and Friday are forecast to be 90-95 away from
the immediate coast, with lows in the 70s. Record highs during
this time are mainly 100 plus. So some pretty stout records are
in place. Even the warmer NBM highs are generally short, but
do tie or break in a few places on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front lingers near the terminals into Saturday
night.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Periodic showers are
possible early Saturday morning into the afternoon. Coverage
and timing is still somewhat uncertain, so have gone with
PROB30s. Most of the showers should be light, but an isolated
heavier shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out
Saturday afternoon, mainly from the NYC metro terminals on NW.
through the evening and into tonight. VFR is anticipated tonight
and Sat, but brief periods of MVFR are possible with showers.

Winds will continue weakening this evening, becoming light and
variable overnight. For Saturday, a light N-NNE flow develops
after 12z before shifting to the SW-S late morning into the
afternoon. The wind direction may also vary at times, especially
during the morning as wind speeds may remain close to 5 kt.
Wind speeds will remain under 10 kt Saturday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for showers through Saturday. Most of
the shower activity should be light.

There is a low probability of an isolated thunderstorm
Saturday afternoon.

Variable wind direction possible Saturday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: Low chance for MVFR/IFR east of the NYC metro
terminals.

Sunday-Monday: VFR

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with
MVFR NW of the NYC metro terminals. S winds possible G15-20kt
in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with
MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds through the
middle of next week. Could see some wind approaching 25 kt Tue
afternoon and Wed afternoon in a southerly flow.

Rip Currents:

The rip current risk looks to be low over the weekend with 1-2
ft swell sets varying between 5-10s and onshore winds at or
below 10 kt. Recent observations at area beaches are also
supporting a lower risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Goodman/DW