What's Happening In Newington

742
FXUS61 KOKX 061846
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front will move across the area Saturday morning,
bringing cold temperatures, strong winds, and some light
snow.

2) Temperatures moderate next week, noticeably so by Tuesday afternoon
and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A quick moving low pressure system and associated cold front
approaches tonight and moves across there region on Saturday. As the
front approaches tonight precipitation will overspread the
region, with snow becoming likely across the entire area towards
midnight and continuing into early Saturday morning. Snowfall
amounts are expected to remain light, with a widespread half to
one and a half inches expected. The only exception will be
across the far eastern portions of Long Island and Eastern CT,
where amounts could be slightly higher, closer to 2-3 inches.
Some of the forecast models are showing the potential for some
snow bands to develop mainly east of the region, however its
possible that some of those bands could impact the far eastern
portion of the area. This will continue to be monitored for the
potential for some short fused winter weather advisories if
snowfall amounts need to be increased for these areas.

The snow will taper off from west to east during the daytime on
Saturday, and may not end until late in the day across the far
eastern sections of the forecast area.

As the front moves across the region on Saturday, a tight pressure
gradient develops over the area which will produce increasing
northwest flow. The cold air advection will increase and the wind
chill will become a significant factor. Stayed close to the current
wind forecast which was closer to the MOS guidance with the NBM
guidance being significantly too low with wind speeds and gusts.
Expect sustained winds speeds near 25 to 30 mph with gusts reaching
near 45 to 50 mph for much of the region. As a result, A wind
Advisory remain in effect from 9 AM Saturday until midnight
Saturday night.

The combination of the strong gusty winds and cold temperatures will
result in dangerously cold wind chills Saturday night. The coldest
night of the weekend will be Saturday night as temperatures fall
into the single digits area wide, with temperatures below 0 in some
areas north of NYC. These cold temperatures with the winds will
result in widespread wind chills between -15 to -20 degrees which
will continue into early Sunday morning.


Another round of cold weather headlines may be needed Sunday night
into Monday morning, however it wont be as cold as Saturday night. A
lot of this will depends on how quickly winds diminish Sunday and
Sunday night. For now looking at wind chill values from about 0
closer to the city to -10 to -15 in the usual colder spots in
the CWA.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The arctic air mass from the weekend will begin to moderate
some beginning on Monday, and then lifts out completely during
the day Tuesday. After temperatures recover some Monday
afternoon with widespread 20s, temperatures will get to around
freezing region wide by Tuesday afternoon. Despite temperatures
warming, temperatures will continue to average below normal
region wide throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure and an associated Arctic cold front will approach
tonight, and pass through Saturday morning.

VFR conditions before 00Z, then periods of light snow developing
this evening with MVFR vsby at first, then lowering to IFR later
this evening and overnight. VFR conditions are expected to return
for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals following the cold
frontal passage. A heavy snow shower or snow squall is possible with
the Arctic cold front but confidence is too low at this time to
include in TAFs. The eastern terminals will likely see periods of
light snow to continue into early afternoon. Snow could briefly be
moderate .

Light N-NE winds become variable or SSW this afternoon/evening.
Following the cold frontal passage Saturday morning, NW winds
increase to 15-25kt with G30-40kt. A few higher gusts up to 50 kt
possible. The eastern terminals will be slower to ramp up.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of snow and MVFR/IFR conditions will continue to be fined
tuned.

Snow squalls are possible with the arctic cold front.

A few gusts up to 50 kt possible Saturday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Afternoon/Night: VFR returns to the eastern terminals by
late afternoon/early evening as snow comes to an end.

Total accumulations just shy of an inch for the NYC metros/KSWF, 1
inch KHPN/KBDR, 1-2 inches for KISP/KGON.
Potential for KGON to see higher amounts.

NW winds 20-30 kt with gusts 35-45 kt, highest into early evening.
Winds gradually diminish thereafter.

Sunday: VFR. NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, diminishing to
10-15 gusts around 15-20 kt at night.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of snow inland and rain or
snow at the coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions remain below small craft advisory thresholds on all
waters through tonight. The calm conditions rapidly change on
Saturday as an Arctic front moves across the waters, with winds
increasing to gale force.

The gales last through Saturday night and potentially into
Sunday as well, especially on the ocean. Ocean seas build up to
near 8-10 ft Saturday into Saturday night and even the Long
Island Sound builds to near 6 ft for a significant portion of
the Sound for this same timeframe.

In addition, with this increasing fetch and increasingly colder
temperatures, more freezing spray is expected Saturday into
Saturday night. Portions of the ocean and Long Island Sound are
expected to develop moderate to heavy freezing spray. In
collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to hoist a
heavy freezing spray warning for the ocean and Long Island Sound
for 1 PM Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This may
need to be extended into Sunday with subsequent forecasts.

Small craft conditions may linger out on the eastern ocean waters
Monday into Monday evening, otherwise sub advisory conditions
return. Sub advisory conditions should prevail through mid week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Sun Feb 8:

KEWR:  18/1985
KBDR:  18/1994
KNYC:   8/1895
KLGA:  21/1985
KJFK:  22/1967
KISP:  20/1985

Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934
KBDR:   5/1963
KNYC: -15/1934
KLGA:   7/1979
KJFK:   8/1979
KISP:   5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the all
time record lows for those sites. Temperatures are not expected
to fall to those levels.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday
     night for CTZ005>012.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     CTZ005-006-009-010.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     CTZ007-008-011-012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday
     night for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     NYZ078-080-177-179.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     NYZ079-081.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     NYZ067.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for NYZ068>075-176-178.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday
     night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     NJZ002.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 6 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC/JE
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JE