What's Happening In Newington

064
FXUS61 KOKX 241430
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet and cool conditions on Saturday, potentially lingering into
Sunday.

2) Rain possible again mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A frontal system will slide to the south and west on Saturday
and bring rain to the area. The exception may be for
southeastern CT and the Twin Forks of Long Island where there is
potential for much of the day to be dry. However, guidance is
still struggling with how to handle the system once it is
offshore Saturday night. The Canadian and NAM continue to be
the slowest and closest with this system, bringing wet
conditions on Sunday especially for eastern areas. The GFS
remains the driest, keeping Sunday dry. Stuck close to the NBM
for PoP and QPF forecast Saturday and Sunday as it shows a good
blended solution.

Latest guidance has better agreement with rainfall amounts for
western portions of the area, with NYC and northeast NJ now
likely to see at least an inch. NBM probabilities for 1 inch of
rain from 12z Saturday to 12z Sunday for those areas is at 80
percent. Amounts lower the farther east you get.

The flow will be easterly both days and this combined with cloud
cover will keep highs in the upper 40s to low 50s Saturday and
low to mid 50s for Sunday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Unsettled weather returns mid to late week with the approach of
a cold front and potential development of a frontal wave. NBM
PoPs stretch from Tuesday through Friday, but this is likely a
result of timing differences in the guidance. A washout is not
expected by any means and right now the most likely timing will
be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Periods of moderate
rain look possible during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds over New England through tonight, then
gradually gives way to low pressure and an associated frontal
system on Saturday.

VFR through tonight. Light rain develops Saturday morning from
NYC terminals on west with conditions gradually lowering to
MVFR.

N-NE winds around 10 kt or less this morning. Winds will shift
to the SE this afternoon. Winds will back to the E tonight with
speeds under 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind shift to the SE may be off by 1-2 hours.

Timing of -RA and lower conditions Saturday morning may be off
by 1-3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Saturday: VFR to start. Rain developing from west to east
through the day with MVFR or lower conditions developing. Rain
may hold off at KGON till night. E-ESE wind gusts 15-20 kt
possible.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain. ENE wind
gusts 15-20 kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain eastern Long Island
and southeast Connecticut.

Tuesday: Chance of showers and MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on the waters through the
middle of next week. The only exception is for the ocean waters
Sunday into Monday where wind and wave forecast as increased given
increased potential in an offshore wave of low pressure lingering
nearby. 25 kt gusts and 5 to 6 ft seas are possible during this
period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BR/DS
MARINE...JT