What's Happening In Newington

591
FXUS61 KOKX 030510
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1210 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Polar high pressure will be in control through Monday, with a
weak clipper system moving through Saturday night into Sunday
morning. High pressure retreats Monday with a weak disturbance
and frontal boundary riding north of the area. The front will
remain nearby and likely north of the area into mid week. Weak
high pressure should briefly build Wednesday night into
Thursday. Low pressure tracks west of the region Thursday night
into Friday and drags a warm front through late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Decreasing cloud cover overnight in the wake of a shortwave,
with rising heights, and moderating polar high building to the
SW of the area.

Mixed low-level will keep temps from bottoming out, with lows
in the lower 20s city/coast and teens interior and Pine Barrens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Temps continue to run about 10 degrees below normal.

* A weak clipper system will likely bring a period of light snow
  or snow showers, with a dusting of accumulation, for much of
  the area Sat Night into Sunday AM.

Generally zonal upper flow on Saturday at based of polar jet,
giving way to a digging norther stream shortwave approaching Sat
Night, crossing the area Sunday, and pivoting east Sunday
Night. Models in good agreement with phasing of this northern
shortwave with a southern shortwave taking place well southeast
of the region on Sunday.

At the surface, weak high over the area Saturday will give way
to an approaching clipper system Sat night, sliding east across
central New England Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a stronger
southern low tracks well offshore Sat Night into Sunday.

Continued unseasonably cold Sat and Sun, with highs upper
20s/lower 30s for city/coast and mid to upper 20s interior.

After some morning sun on Sat, increasing high and mid-deck
ahead of approaching upper forcing. Approaching PVA and RRQ of
strengthening ULJ, with weak theta-e advection ahead of the
clipper system will bring potential for a period of light snow
or snow showers late Sat Night into early Sunday morning. Best
chance of a dusting of snow across interior-particularly higher
elevations (weak frontogenesis) and SE CT/E LI (slightly better
moisture advection and jet lift). Fairly consistent signal
amongst CAMs, operational deterministic and ensemble models, and
GFS/ECMWF AI models for a couple tenths of snow across these
areas. Have increased from NBM low chance pops to high
chance/low likely Pops for this time period. NYC/NJ metro may
only see brief snow showers or flurries with less
forcing/moisture.

Clipper system slides offshore Sun AM, with bombing offshore
low heading towards New Foundland thru Sun Night. Shot of caa on
gusty NW winds in wake of clipper on Sunday, slowly relenting
Sun NIght as moderating polar highs slide towards the area. Sct-
Bkn strato- cu on Sun as shortwave slides through, with
clearing skies Sun Night.

Potential for a window of radiational cooling across far
outlying areas Sunday night with lows into the single digits.
Otherwise low in the teens for much of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Point(s):

* Moderating temperatures mid to late week.

* Some forecast uncertainty with regard to weak shortwave features
  for the early to mid week. Deviated from NBM some with PoPs and Wx
  / Wx Type, but only slight adjustments were made for the time
  being.

The current - AO / - NAO teleconnection pattern is forecast to go
more neutral going through the period. The long wave pattern is
expected to go more towards a semi-zonal pattern for mid week, with
brief east coast ridging late in the period.

Overall, fast moving and weak wx systems are expected. The
first is a weak and progressive shortwave approaching from the
Great Lakes for Monday late day and evening. The low levels
should remain fairly dry, but the NBM does appear to be under
doing the chances for some light overrunning precip. Thus have
bumped up PoPs some and thus for now have a slight chance of
light snow across northern sections for Monday afternoon and
evening. The high retreats late Monday and the frontal boundary
gets north of the area into Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon and
evening another shortwave approaches. This second shortwave is
progged to be slightly sharper / tighter. Thus some light rain
is possible and stayed close to NBM PoPs for this second
feature, although could see NBM PoPs being slightly under done
for this feature as well, especially further north which will be
closer to wear the low level boundary sets up. There appears to
be a warm tongue in the mid levels and with some leftover near
sfc cold air further north, have added in a chance of light
freezing rain for northern sections for Tuesday evening / night.
Confidence remains somewhat low this far out, but has increased
some relatively from previous forecast, so added in this chance
after collab with neighboring WFOs. Weak high pressure should
then briefly build late Wed into early Thursday before the next
system draws closer for late week. The warmest period appears to
be for Thursday into Friday as temperatures climb above average
for early January. As heights climb in advance of the next
system on Friday, temperatures may reach 50 across portions of
the region, especially if the near sfc winds can gather more of
a southwesterly component.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains in place through Saturday. The high
weakens late Saturday night as a wave of low pressure passes to
the north of the region.

VFR.

Winds generally NW less than 10kt overnight into Saturday
morning, Winds back to WNW less than 10kt into late Saturday
afternoon into the evening. Winds begin to shift more to NW 5 to
8kt Saturday evening, becoming light and variable at the
outlying terminals.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected until late Saturday night
with a chance of light snow and MVFR conditions.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late Saturday night: Chance of light snow and MVFR.

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in light rain late
day and nighttime along with a chance of -FZRA at KSWF.

Wednesday: VFR, with a slight chance of MVFR or lower in light
rain in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue on the ocean through first half of
tonight, and elevated seas close to 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet.
On the non-ocean waters, occasional gusts to 25 kt possible.

Sub-advisory conditions then prevail on all waters from
Saturday into Sunday Am with weak pressure gradient.

SCA conds likely Sun aft/eve in wake of clipper system on the
ocean waters, with occasional gusts on nearshore waters.

Sub small craft conditions will prevail for the first half of next
week. Later in the mid week period, towards late Wednesday and
Wednesday night small craft conditions may develop on the ocean
waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Potential for brief and localized minor coastal flooding for the
typically vulnerable south shore bays of NYC and Nassau County
for the Sun AM high tide, in response to elevated astrotides
from a Sat AM full moon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...