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671
FXUS61 KOKX 150312
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1112 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Watch issued for the ocean waters Friday night through
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front passes through this evening with a return to
drier and and more seasonable conditions for tonight into
Thursday.

2) A strong frontal system brings showers Thursday night into
Friday morning and a second round of showers/isolated
thunderstorms late Friday afternoon/evening. No significant
impacts are anticipated at this time.

3) The coolest air mass of the season so far moves in this
weekend along with Gusty NW wind Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold front push offshore this evening. No showers are expected
with the frontal passage. Cooler and drier air will advect into
the region tonight on NW/N winds with a few gusts up to 25 mph
possible. Lows will fall into the upper 40s inland and lower
50s closer to the coast. Seasonable and dry conditions are
expected on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 60s.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong frontal system approaches Thursday night, with its
associated warm front lifting north of the area Friday night.
The trailing cold front will then move through the region Friday
evening.

The overall thinking has not changed with this system. Thermal
forcing/warm advection quickly increase Thursday night, which
will bring showers with the warm front passage into Friday
morning. These showers will likely end mid to late morning with
a lull in any activity. Rainfall amounts with this initial round
of showers remain on the lighter side with average amounts a
quarter inch or less.

The region will then become warm sectored aiding in an slight
increase in instability. Temperatures should be able to reach
the 70s ahead of the cold front. Guidance is then signaling
potential for a band of shallow convection, mainly in the form
of showers, but a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out. The only concern with this potential convection is from an
isolated severe wind gust. Currently, SPC has much of the Day 3
marginal risk south of the area, where instability is expected
to be higher. This line of convection will be fast moving, so
any downpours will be short-lived. A few showers remain
possible behind the front until around midnight as the upper
trough lags to the west and continues to amplify. Much drier air
returns for the second half of Friday night as the cold front
moves offshore.

Average rainfall amounts with the evening convection/lingering
showers will be around a quarter inch although a few spots could
be slightly higher locally. No rainfall impacts are expected at
this time.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The main story Friday night into the weekend will be much
colder and drier air. Strong, NW gusty winds will follow the
cold front passage Friday night and continue through much of
Saturday. Peak gusts 30-40 mph are expected, especially Friday
night into the first half of Saturday. The pressure gradient
begins to relax Saturday afternoon, so gusts should start to
lower heading into the evening. One note is there has been a
notable trend down in the low level wind field in the guidance
over the last 24-36 hours. Winds at the top of the mixed layer
are currently progged to peak around 35 kt Friday night into
Saturday morning based on forecast sounding analysis. While
cannot completely rule out the eventual need for a wind advisory
(gusts greater than 45 mph but less than 58 mph), the
probabilities seem to be decreasing based on latest trends.

The other story will be the coldest air of the season so far.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s areawide Friday night with
the gusty NW flow. Highs on Saturday will struggle to rise
above 50 degrees inland and only reach the lower 50s elsewhere.
These highs are 10-15 degrees below normal for October 17.

Winds should drop off Saturday night with a relaxed pressure
gradient and high pressure building just to our west.
Temperatures Saturday night could fall close to freezing with
upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere.

Some slight moderation is expected Sunday into Monday with
temperatures potentially close to normal by Tuesday. High
pressure remains in control so dry conditions will continue
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Behind a cold frontal passage, high pressure builds in from the
NW through Thursday.

VFR. Some MVFR cigs may approach the terminals from the west
toward 6Z on Friday along with some showers after 6Z.

Winds will gradually veer around to the NW, then NNW behind the
cold frontal passage into the first part of tonight. Occasional
gusts are possible during the first half of tonight under the
strongest cold air advection. Winds will then veer more
northerly overnight and then NE Thursday morning. Winds continue
to veer to the E and SE late Thursday afternoon and into
Thursday evening.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts the first half of tonight could be more frequent.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: Showers move in late with MVFR or lower cond.

Friday: Showers. IFR conditions likely early, improving to VFR in
the afternoon for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals.
Eastern terminals, especially KGON could stay sub-VFR. SW winds G20-
25kt.

Friday night: Showers and possibly a tstm in the evening with mainly
MVFR conditions, then VFR. Cold frontal passage followed by W-NW
winds G25-35kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G25-35 kt, diminishing in the evening.

Sunday and Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A period of marginal SCA conditions (occasional gusts to 25
kt) likely tonight on the ocean behind the cold front passage
tonight into Thu AM, elsewhere nearshore waters should see
gusts 20 kt. The flow relaxes Thursday morning into afternoon
with conditions below SCA levels through Thursday night.

S flow increases Friday morning as a warm front lifts to the
north. Winds will shift to the SW and become gusty 25-30 kt
Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. The cold front passage
likely occurs Friday evening. Following its passage, winds may
gust to around 35 kt on the ocean waters. Per collaboration with
neighboring offices, have issued a Gale Watch Friday night
through Saturday afternoon. The non ocean waters currently look
more marginal, so have left them out for now. Winds should start
to weaken late Saturday and gradually fall below SCA levels
Saturday night into early Sunday. Conditions will then remain
below SCA levels into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

October 14:
KISP: 82/2026

Possible Record High Minimum Temperatures:

October 14:
KEWR: 67/1990
KBDR: 64/1990
KNYC: 68/1990
KLGA: 70/1990
KJFK: 67/1990
KISP: 66/1990

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
     ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DS