What's Happening In Newington

782
FXUS61 KOKX 031544
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory is now in place between 10 AM and 10 PM
today. The following are included, NJ: western Passaic. NY:
Orange and Putnam. CT: N Fairfield, N Middlesex, N New Haven,
and N New London counties.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A wintry mix to rain is expected today into tonight.

2) Above normal temperatures and generally rainy late week into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Update: This is a challenging forecast today as we are seeing
some sleet in the NYC terminals, implying a warm nose aloft to
melt snow to rain and then refreeze it in the low-levels. Ironically,
much of the guidance did not show this warm nose so early. However,
it is evident on the radar DP CC and the latest 12Z NAM soundings
seem to be catching on. The sleet/snow should be short-lived at
the coast as the column warms and moistens. The tricky part is
across the interior with snow/sleet to freezing rain. The HRRR
is much colder in the boundary layer and slower to erode to cold
air. Its the outlier in 2m temps versus the GFS, NAM, and HREF.
The NBM is the warmest of the guidance. This will have to be
watched closely as the advisory may need to be extended south
into Rockland and Westchester counties. Additionally, the ice
accretion could be more substantial inland. The trend in the
guidance has also been colder. The weak low-level flow and
snowpack could be part of the reason for the much colder HRRR.

Otherwise, polar high pressure will retreat offshore out into
the western Atlantic today, while a frontal system over the Mid
Atlantic states returns northward as a warm front. Coastal
locations with an onshore easterly flow are forecast to warm
fast enough for a transition to rain along the coast by late
morning/early afternoon. Freezing rain is expected to be confined
mainly north and west of the NYC metro. The south to north
transition to plain rain will be gradual in the interior and
begin in the afternoon, but likely not completely change over
for the most northern fringes until late this evening.

Cold air is generally slower to lift out across northern and
western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, interior NE NJ, and
interior S CT. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory remains
in place for these areas 10am-10pm for having a better chance
at seeing ice accretion with higher elevations and more northern
locations possibly seeing upwards of a tenth of an inch.

Rain will be heaviest during the nighttime hours Tuesday as the
warm front briefly lifts over or just north of the area before
dropping south behind a frontal wave later at night. Liquid
equivalent amounts are forecast to range form 0.5 to 0.75",
highest across eastern LI and SE CT.

High pressure and much warmer conditions are on tap for
Wednesday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Offshore high pressure, and northern branch systems tracking near
and north of the region will allow for a prolonged period with above
normal temperatures from Thursday through the beginning of next
week. While no records are expected to be set during this period
temperatures, in general, will be around 10 degrees above
normal Thursday through Saturday, and above normal by as much as
20 degrees Sunday and Monday. There is the potential for a
couple of record high minimum temperatures Sunday, March 8. The
Temperatures will be especially mild inland, while coastal areas
will be several degrees cooler with a southerly flow off the
cold ocean, with sea surface temperatures in the mid to upper
30s.

A frontal boundary will be in the vicinity of the area Thursday into
Saturday with a couple of waves of low pressure moving along the
boundary. With mild conditions plain rain is expected across the
forecast area. There will be a brief lull in the chances of
precipitation Friday night into Saturday after the second wave
departs. Then with a cold front slowly approaching Saturday night
into the beginning of next week another round of plain rain/showers
will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak low pressure with a warm front approaches from the south this
afternoon. The front then stalls nearby this evening, before moving
to the south on Wednesday.

Mainly IFR for midday, with pocket of LIFR towards 20-21z. A wintry
mix prevails through 18z at most metro and coastal terminals, with
more of a changeover to rain from S to N thru the afternoon. Snow at
the onset for KTEB-KHPN-KSWF, and perhaps KBDR as well, possibly
seeing a brief period of FZRA this afternoon. Any FZRA will be of
shorter duration for KTEB. KSWF and KHPN will hold onto wintry mix
through the day, with a change to RA during this evening. Have
pushed back the changeover times for KSWF and KHPN by a few hours.
Also added some -FZRA for KBDR from 19 to 21z. Rain at all terminals
by late in the evening and into the overnight, with the rain
ending late tonight.

Winds remain below 10kt, and around 5kt or less much of the time
through the TAF period.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty is higher than average around precip types. PL may be
more prevalent through the early afternoon, more than what it
currently reflected in TAFs. The timing of any wintry mix changing
to plain rain may be off by 1-2 hours, along with flight category
changes.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night: Lowering to MVFR/IFR mainly late at night with a
chance of rain.

Thursday and Friday: MVFR or lower cond with periods of rain and
fog.

Saturday: MVFR/VFR with a slight chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A weak wave of low pressure will impact the area beginning
Tuesday. Marginal SCA conditions (5-6 ft seas) are possible on
the ocean waters Tuesday night into Wednesday morning due to a
period of southwesterly winds. A Small Craft Advisory has been
issued for this. High pressure follows on Wednesday.

Small craft advisory seas are possible on the ocean waters,
mainly east of Fire Island Inlet, Friday into Friday night. A
strengthening southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front
Saturday will allow for more widespread 5 foot ocean seas at SCA
levels Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, gusts on the ocean
will be near 25 kt Saturday night. For the non ocean waters
winds and seas remain below SCA levels Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     CTZ005>008.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR/DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BR