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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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201 FXUS61 KOKX 111124 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 724 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 12z Aviation AFD Update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Thunderstorms possible this afternoon into this evening, maybe Wednesday as well. Impacts appear to be limited so far. No heat headlines for both days. 2) Possible wind impacts with a chance of thunderstorms for Thursday. 3) Scattered areas of minor coastal flooding likely for vulnerable locales along the south shore of Nassau and Queens and coastal Westchester and Fairfield during the nighttime high tide thru Thursday. Greatest coverage of minor flooding likely during the Wednesday Night high tides. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Maximum heat indices today are expected to range in the upper 80s to lower 90s, falling short of 2-day criteria thresholds for an advisory. With dewpoints 65-70, it will still fell muggy outside however. Thunderstorms become possible this afternoon into early evening with a weak cold front and shortwave lift interacting with MLCAPES in the range of mostly 500-1000 J/kg - focused more towards western portions of the forecast area. The progged speed shear with a unidirectional flow suggests a strong wind gust potential, but likely not to severe levels. The scattered nature of storms would seem to limit the flash flood potential, but considering current flash flood guidance, can`t completely rule this out, particularly over the typically more sensitive areas of NE NJ. Guidance is split on our rain/thunderstorm chances overnight into Wednesday with the hi-res CAMs generally favoring some rainfall with a thunderstorm chance over the area. Meanwhile, most of the global models keep us dry, but close to the northern edge of a precip shield associated with a wave of low pressure passing to our south. Have nudged up pops from 01z NBM during this period, but still capped at chance. Instability would likely be limited, so no severe weather concerns with this so far. That could change if guidance trends towards a more northerly track for the low pressure wave. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Relatively zonal flow aloft complicates the timing of a weak cold front/trough that could pass through during Thursday. Consensus of the 00z global guidance and NBM wind fields suggest an afternoon to evening passage. If this is the case, then CAPE and shear could be enough for strong to severe wind gusts. Confidence in the severe potential is low at this time as well as the confidence in a flash flooding threat. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Astronomical tides will increase with an approaching new moon on Wednesday, bringing potential for scattered areas of minor coastal flooding during the evening/nighttime high tides tonight thru Thursday. Threat for a bit more widespread minor coastal flooding is likely during the Wednesday night high tide along the south shore of Nassau and Queens and coastal Westchester and Fairfield as astro tides peak. Localized flooding possible for vulnerable locations along NY/NJ Harbor and tidally affected NE NJ rivers during this time as well. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front approaches late today and then gradually crosses thru Wed AM. VFR through this afternoon, with thunderstorm activity over eastern PA, expected to weaken as it approaches the NYC/NJ terminals btwn 13z and 15z. Late this aft/eve an isolated thunderstorm is possible from the NYC metro on west. Have included as a prob30, although probability may be closer to a prob20. A continued chance for SHRA, embedded TSRA tonight into Wed AM with cold frontal passage. Light W-SW winds (left of 300 True) gradually veer to the WNW- NW (right of 300 True) thru the morning push morning before backing to the W-SW in the afternoon. Wind speeds will be 8-12 kt. Light NW/Vrb winds late this evening into overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of wind shifts in the TAF may be off by 1-2 hours. SSW seabreeze possible at KJFK btwn 20z and 00z. Isolated thunderstorms possible late this aft/eve. Continued chance of SHRA and embedded TSRA w/ MVFR or lower conds tonight thru Wed AM push. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday: Potential for scattered SHRA w/ embedded TSRA Wed AM, with MVFR or lower conds possible. Dry with VFR likely in the afternoon. N/NW winds, giving way to late afternoon south coastal seabreezes. Thursday: VFR, outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Friday-Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25kt Friday. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through at least Thursday night. Winds pick up out of the NW on Friday into Friday night and gusts may come close to 25kt. Rip Currents: 1-2 ft SE onshore swell and S/SW wind wave this week, with weak seabreeze development will generally keep the rip risk low through Wednesday. One caveat, approach of new moon will increase the tidal range, and could increase rip risk to moderate particularly around the times of low tide each afternoon. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...NV MARINE...JC |
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