NewingtonWeather.COM

089
FXUS61 KOKX 040229
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1029 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated thunderstorms with heavy downpours possible overnight
into early this morning. Relatively higher chance for W and SW
portions of the area.

2) Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday afternoon
into the early evening. Relatively higher chance for W and SW
portions of the area.

3) No hazardous weather expected for Labor Day Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
CAMs for the most part agree with previous runs of the HRRR
about the potential for a decaying convective system moving into
or near the area overnight into early Friday morning. Guidance
notoriously struggles with exact placement of these systems, as
seen even over the past several days. As of right now, the
potential for damaging wind gusts appears low as previous
t-storm activity thus far has not held together once reaching
the Delaware River.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Another convective complex approaches from the west on Friday. Most
of the guidance has this system tracking well south of our area, but
it is worth keeping an eye on given the last few runs of the
HRRR, which keeps this system closer to our area. Kept slight
chance of showers/thunderstorms in the forecast. Should any
thunderstorms occur, it is unlikely they will be severe at this
time.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Cooler and mainly dry conditions expected for Labor Day Weekend.
Lower dewpoints will also give the air a more comfortable feel.

With an upper low over the Canadian Maritimes, some wraparound
moisture from offshore low pressure and weak instability may trigger
scattered showers Saturday afternoon/evening. Other than this, dry
conditions are forecast through Labor Day.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves across overnight.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Brief exceptions include any
showers or thunderstorm overnight into early Friday morning which
may result in brief sub VFR conditions for a few terminals. Also,
there is the potential for low stratus or even fog overnight into
the early morning at KGON.

The chance of showers and a t-storm overnight into early this
morning is being handled with PROB30 groups. Confidence remains
low on any shower and thunderstorm timing and placement late
overnight. Brief MVFR to IFR possible with any showers and
thunderstorms.

The winds become more NW for some terminals at 5 to 10 kt overnight,
with some outlying terminals going light and variable. Winds
generally W-NW near 10 kt for Friday. A few gusts are possible,
especially for the more western terminals towards 18z.

       NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for any SHRA or TSRA overnight.

Gusts of 15 to 20 kt currently only included for KTEB and KEWR for
Friday afternoon. Amendments remain possible for all city terminals
regarding gusts.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: VFR with light winds.

Saturday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through early
next week. There is potential for 25-30 kt wind gusts and 5-6ft seas
towards the middle to end of next week ahead of and behind a strong
cold frontal passage.

Rip Currents:

A lack of significant wind or swell will lead to a low rip
current risk for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE/JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JT