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242
FXUS61 KOKX 232043
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
443 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Frost Advisories have been expanded into eastern Suffolk for
tonight into early Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions continue through much of next week.

2) Frost expected inland and across eastern Long Island late
tonight into early Saturday morning, and may occur again late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

3) One last round of spotty minor coastal flooding possible
along the back bays of southern Nassau County for the Saturday
morning high tide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure building from the north will settle over the area
this weekend, then drift south on Monday. A cold front moving
through Monday night will be moisture starved. High pressure and
dry conditions then return for the rest of the week.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Under mainly clear skies and light winds thanks to high pressure,
radiational cooling is expected each night through Sunday night
for the outlying areas. Temperatures tonight are expected to
drop into the 30s with some 25-30 readings possible well inland
and in parts of the Long Island Pine Barrens. Frost Advisories
were expanded to eastern Long Island and remain in effect for
coastal areas of Westchester and CT. Patchy frost is also
possible in parts of western Suffolk. Frost is not expected
across the remainder of Long Island, NYC, and the surrounding
nearby suburbs.

Similar temperatures expected late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. Another round of Frost Advisories are likely
for the aforementioned areas for that time frame.

Upper level ridging throughout the column Saturday night will
mean introduction of some slightly warmer air, so frost may be
more patchy Sunday night into Monday morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
With the approach of a full moon late this weekend and a
persistent easterly swell, water levels will be elevated through
the next several high tide cycles. Brief minor flooding of the
more vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline is
possible for the Nassau south shore bays with the Saturday
morning high tide cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the northwest through Saturday.

VFR thru the TAF period.

N flow with speeds around 10 kt or less. Flow gradually veers
NNE into this evening as speeds lower and a high cirrus
deck moves in. A light N/NE flow tonight, or variable at times,
becoming variable everywhere by late Saturday morning as the
high moves overhead. Light and variable flow then continues
through the rest of Saturday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction could be more variable at times through the TAF.
Speeds remain light, under 10 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for all ocean waters for hazardous seas
4-6 ft. These seas gradually diminish tonight.

Ocean seas may also approach 5 ft from Tue morning into Wed
morning.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday
     for CTZ009>012.
NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ071-079-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman/DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...Goodman/DW