What's Happening In Newington

241
FXUS61 KOKX 261104
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
604 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Areas of black ice have been observed and an SPS was issued.

The wave of low pressure early next week has trended towards a
less impactful event with latest guidance passing the bulk of
the precipitation to our south. A few inches of snow
accumulation can not be completely ruled out yet.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of black ice this morning.

2) Low pressure passes to the south of the area today bringing
a slight chance of light snow.

3) Scattered snow showers expected Saturday night into Sunday
along an arctic front with a low potential for squall activity
mainly north and west of NYC. Colder than normal temperatures
expected behind this front Sunday night through Monday night.

4) A couple of waves of low pressure move nearby next week
bringing multiple chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An SPS has been issued for black ice. Lightening winds and
clearing skies are allowing temperatures to drop quickly this
morning. Have updated temps to reflect this. Much of the area
will likely see temperatures below freezing by sunrise if not
already. Across the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT, the
freezing temperatures along with overnight precipitation is
already causing areas of black ice. For the rest of the area,
the freezing temperatures combined with snowmelt may cause areas
of black ice.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front pushes east of the area today while weak high
pressure attempts to build in. At the same time, weak low
pressure spins up over the Mid-Atlantic and passes well offshore
to our south. The majority of guidance has the northern edge of
the precip shield passing south of us, with the 00z GFS and
ECMWF grazing the area. However, the 00z FV3 does bring precip
to the entire area, but not giving this too much weight at the
moment. Given the uncertainty have kept slight chance PoPs for
northeast NJ, NYC and Long Island. Ptype may end up being more
of a rain snow mix. Regardless, surface temps are expected to
be above freezing and given the light intensity no snow
accumulation is expected.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
An arctic front moves through Sunday with high pressure building
in behind it. Guidance has continued what it started to hint at
24 hours ago which is having some QPF along the front. If this
occurs, this activity will likely come in the form of snow
showers. The potential for squalls will continue to be
monitored, but right now the highest chances for that will be
north and west of NYC. A quick coating to a couple of tenths
can`t be ruled out, again north and west of NYC.

With the arctic airmass building in, expect well below normal
temperatures Sunday night through Monday night with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s on Monday.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
A couple of waves of low pressure bring multiple chance for
precipitation next week.

The first would arrive sometime Monday into Tuesday. High
pressure will be centered just to the northwest of the area and
another wave of low pressure tries to cut under the high. The
GFS and GEFS had been the most aggressive and farthest north
with this wave, but the 00z run has come in closer in line with
the Canadian and ECMWF which are farther south. There are also
some timing differences with the GFS being on the earlier side
(Monday). The GEFS precip accum mean has gradually trended down
the past 4 runs and now has a mean of 0.15 to 0.25 inches. While
this is trending towards a less impactful event, a few inches of
snow accumulation can not be completely ruled out yet.

The high then pushes east and yet another wave looks to move
through mid-week. This continues to look like a warmer situation
with likely a front end snow changing over to rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region today, remaining nearby
tonight as a weak low pressure system passes to the south.

Mainly VFR. Early morning mist may briefly restrict vsbys,
mostly at KGON.

Low pressure passes offshore to the south late today, and cigs
lower under 5 kft at coastal terminals as it does so. It
remains possible a bit of light snow and/or MVFR conds develop
along the coast between 21Z and 00Z, but this is looking more
unlikely, and opted to omit the previous TEMPO mentioning this.

Winds less than 10 kt through the TAF period. A light W or WNW
flow veers NW by late this morning, then going light and variable
this afternoon for most, before a light northerly flow resumes
tonight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of brief light snow and/or MVFR conditions after 21Z
today. More likely that the terminals remain dry as low pressure
passes to the south.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Thursday night - Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with light snow. N/NW winds G15-20 kt.

Monday: MVFR or lower with a chance of snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory for the western ocean zone has been
cancelled as seas are below 5ft and will continue to trend down. SCA
remain in effect for the other ocean zones today.

Conditions remain largely below SCA criteria through the weekend.
With a few waves of low pressure moving through SCA conditions
are possible early to mid next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...DR/MET
MARINE...JT