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042
FXUS61 KOKX 142053
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
453 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast during this
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and sunny conditions through mid week. No hazardous
weather expected.

2) A couple of chances of rain in the mid to long term starting
Thursday night. Limited to no impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Gusty NW flow should diminish tonight, with clear skies and
diminishing winds promoting radiational cooling. Temps tonight
will be on the cooler side of the guidance, with 40s inland and
in the Long Island Pine Barrens and the 50s elsewhere. The
forecast low of 57 at Central Park would be the first time the
low temp there has been below 60 since June the. Tue should
also be on the cooler side, with highs in the lower 70s. As high
pressure slides offshore, temps should moderate to a few deg
above normal for Wed and Thu, with highs from the mid 70s to
lower 80s.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front is progged to pass through during Thursday night.
Low chance of rain during this period, and with the loss of
CAPE, no thunder expected. Rain threat should be done by the
Friday morning commute with the cold front offshore by this
time.

Some disagreement among models regarding what would be another
cold front passage this weekend. Most likely time of its
passage would be Sunday morning, but its possible it lingers
over or near us into Monday. Rain chances kept below 50%
Saturday night through Monday. Any instability would probably be
limited, so while it`s too early to have high confidence, severe
weather and flooding chances so far appear to be very low to
none.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in through the TAF period.

VFR.

NW-NNW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt into the late afternoon.
Gusts may begin diminishing or become occasional after 20Z.
Winds will diminish below 10 kt this evening and then veer to
the N-NNE overnight. Outlying terminals should become light
N-NNE or variable. Light NE-ENE winds expected Tuesday morning.
5-10 kt Tue afternoon with S-SE sea breezes.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts could end up occasional this afternoon after 20Z, and may
end 1-2 hours sooner than indicated in the TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday-Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night-Friday: Mainly VFR. Low probability of a shower.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: Showers may bring MVFR conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
There may be a gust or two to 25 kt on the ocean waters and
Great South bay before sundown. Winds and waves otherwise stay
below SCA through the forecast period.

Rip Currents: There is a low rip current risk for the ocean
beaches through Wednesday. SE swells will be limited with
lighter winds Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/Goodman
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JC/Goodman