What's Happening In Newington

953
FXUS61 KOKX 112303
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
603 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast as weak high pressure builds in for
Friday. Low pressure develops south of the area Saturday night and
heads northeast Sunday. Strong high pressure then builds in for
early next week. A warm front will approach Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Points:

* Gusty winds through tonight with a Wind Advisory in effect for
  eastern and coastal areas.

* Sharply colder tonight.

The pressure gradient over the areas is relaxing somewhat as
departing low to the northeast continues to move away and weak
high pressure builds in from the southwest. Winds have
diminished across NE NJ, NYC, and Nassau County, therefore the
Wind Advisory was cancelled for these locations. Advisory level
winds are still possible across southern CT and central and
eastern Long Island, so have kept advisory up for these areas.

Mid-level energy swinging into the area into tonight will
reinforce the strong CAA in the area. This should continue to
allow for enhanced mixing of the BL and keep gusty winds near
the surface through much of the night. The pressure gradient
weakens some late tonight into early Friday morning so gusts may
begin to diminish by Friday morning.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Long Island and
southern CT for occasional to frequent gusts of 45-50 mph until
4AM. This may need to be extended depending on if strong gusts
persist into Friday morning. Otherwise, cold conditions expected
tonight with temperatures in the teens for northern areas and
low 20s along the coast. Wind chills will make it feel like the
single digits north and in the teens elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Cold continues Friday into Friday night, followed by temperature
  moderation into Saturday.

* Light snow becoming more likely late Saturday night as cold air
  arrives.

A ridge of high pressure shifts into the area on Friday with gusty
winds in the morning diminishing into the afternoon. Dry conditions
with mostly clear skies are expected, though temperatures will be
cold with highs in the 30s across the area. Cold temperatures
persist Friday night with winds relaxing quite a bit. Low
temperatures are expected to largely be in the 20s, though some
northern locations may fall into the teens. Any location that is
able to go calm may drop a few more degrees than forecast due to
radiational cooling under mostly clear skies.

Winds shift WSW on Saturday as a low pressure system passes to the
north. This will allow a moderating of the temperatures on Saturday
with highs in the low 40s expected along the coast. While much of
the day is expected to be dry, cloud cover will be increasing
through the day.

An upper trough deepens Saturday night over the Great Lakes. This
will force lift over much of the area late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning as a surface low pressure develops south of the area.
This lift should be realized in the form of widespread light
snowfall expected to begin to overspread the area after midnight
Saturday night. Depending on the temperatures along the immediate
south shore of Long Island, an initial rain/snow mix may develop but
expected to become all snow fairly quickly.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

*  Weak low pressure in association with an Arctic boundary and
   upper level disturbance brings a period of snow for the
   southeastern portions of the forecast area Sunday morning.

*  A shot of unseasonably cold air will follow for Sunday through
   Monday night, with temps up to 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
   Temperatures should start to moderate late Tuesday into Tuesday
   night but will remain below normal.

Low pressure passes well north of the area Sunday morning, weakening
as it does so. At the same time, a fast moving vorticity max rounds
the base of the upper level trough over the Ohio and Tennessee River
Valleys and moves toward the forecast area. Additionally, and arctic
front moves through on Sunday. Cyclogenesis is also likely along the
front on Sunday well SE of New England after it passes through,
likely too late to have significant snow impacts. However, an
advisory level snowfall (2"-4") across NE NJ, NYC, and Long Island
snowfall is looking more likely Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The best chance of this looks to be for the more southeastern
portions of the area as they will be closer to the low. There remain
differences among global NWP (for example, the NAM gives portions of
Long Island Winter Storm Warning criteria of around 6", while the
GFS gives Long Island