NewingtonWeather.COM

671
FXUS61 KOKX 032356
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
756 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Updated for aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) No significant impacts expected from possible showers Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening.

2) Dry next week with coolest conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will shift to our northeast tonight and then the
Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. An amplified upper trough will dig
down into the Great Lakes region, sending a cold front towards the
area. The upper trough and its associated shortwave energy will
interact with the coastal front/baroclinic zone just south of the
area to develop a weak wave of low pressure Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. The low should develop a few showers across
the area, mainly in the afternoon and evening. There is some
concern that lingering surface ridging/dry air may limit shower
development, especially inland. The greatest likelihood of
showers is close to the coast in the afternoon and evening with
chance PoPs further inland. Rainfall amounts will be light with
generally a few hundredths inland to around a tenth closer to
the coast. There are no flooding impacts expected.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure dominates the weather pattern at the surface next
week with dry weather expected. Monday may be a bit breezy as
the high builds into the area and temperatures should end up
close to normal. The coolest airmass of this fall will advect
into the area Monday night into Tuesday and then remain in place
into Wednesday. Lows Monday night will fall into the 40s for
the most part with the coolest readings well inland. The NYC
metro may remain in the lower 50s. The coldest night may end up
being Tuesday night as high pressure settles overhead. Interior
locations could fall into the mid/upper 30s, especially if skies
remain clear and winds light. Its several days out, but would
need to watch for frost potential in these areas. Temperatures
will moderate closer to normal Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will pass to the north tonight and then retreat to
the northeast on Sunday. Weak low pressure will pass to the
south Sunday afternoon, then to the east Sunday night.

Winds veer more E less than 10 kt this evening, then back
slightly more NE around 10 kt later overnight into Sunday morning.
The winds then become more E and ENE at most terminals later
Sunday afternoon.

Flight cat mainly VFR, with lowering cigs later Sunday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

It is possible some light rain with MVFR cigs could arrive at the
NYC metros as early as 16Z, thus some amendments possible towards
Sunday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: MVFR at most terminals. Light rain in the evening,
especially for the NYC metro and coastal terminals. IFR cond
possible at KJFK/KISP/KGON, and briefly at LGA from around 0z to
06z. Improving at western most terminals before and towards
daybreak.

Monday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20-25kt in the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt mainly E of KBDR/KISP.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through tonight. A
developing wave of low pressure near the waters could increase
NE-E wind gusts occasionally close to 25 kt on the ocean. Seas
also may build to around 5 ft briefly. Thinking any SCA
conditions will be marginal and brief and have elected to hold
off on an SCA issuance. Will mention occasional 25 kt gusts and
5 ft seas in the nearshore ocean zones.

Conditions briefly subside Sunday night before increasing again on
Monday, especially late in the day into the night. Confidence is
slowly increasing for the eventual need of an SCA for wind gusts 25-
30 kt on most of the waters during this time period.
Winds should subside early Tuesday morning leading to a relatively
tranquil conditions through Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DS