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305
FXUS61 KOKX 171921
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
321 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
An extended period of gales likely to occur on the ocean from
Monday or Monday night into late week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The coolest air mass of the season so far is moving in for
the weekend.

2) A non-tropical low developing east of the Carolinas late
tonight into Sunday should move slowly north and remain off the
Mid Atlantic coast into late week. Coastal impacts are
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The coolest air mass since late April will settle in to start
the weekend. Freeze warning remains in effect for late tonight
and early Sunday morning inland.

Cooler air has already moved into the area, with temps in the
lower 50s and dewpoints falling into the 20s on a gusty NW-N
flow. Breaks in the overcast across Orange/W Passaic/Putnam
should expand southeast, with skies clearing from NW-SE into
this evening. There is some question as to how much winds will
decouple late tonight, making the low temperature forecast a
little uncertain. Straight MOS numbers are a little colder, with
more slightly widespread sub freezing temps in the upper
20s/lower 30s well down into western Rockland/northern
Westchester and to parts of the SE CT coastline. Due to the
uncertainty on wind speeds late tonight, blended MOS with
slightly warmer combo of NBM 10th/50th percentile temps fcst
which keeps around/sub freezing temps confined to the warning
area and to the Long Island Pine Barrens, with lows in the
lower 40s in NYC and the mid/upper 30s elsewhere.

Daytime temps should moderate a little thereafter, with highs
from the mid 50s to lower 60s on Sunday, then widespread lower
60s on Mon/Tue.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A closed low forming at the base of the passing mid level trough
will spin up sfc low pressure E of the Carolinas late tonight
into Sunday. This low should then move slowly N-NE, remaining
outside 40N/70W but still close enough and large enough to have
local impact, mainly in terms of gusty NE winds and some
coastal flooding.

The mid level trough swinging across will cut off at the base,
with surface low pressure spinning up off Cape Hatteras. Cut
off from any meaningful steering flow, the low then appears
likely to meander offshore through much of the upcoming week,
moving slowly N and then NE off the Mid Atlantic coast. This may
not bring much if any precip but should bring a prolonged period
of NE winds that could result in minor to locally moderate
coastal impacts, especially Wed into Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR as high pressure gradually builds toward the terminals.

NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt through this afternoon.
Winds will become more N this evening as gusts start weakening,
with gusts ending 02Z-05Z. N winds 10 kt or less are expected
late tonight, and some outlying terminals may become light and
variable early Sunday morning. NE winds 10 kt or less expected
Sunday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts could be a few kt higher at times into this
afternoon. End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-3 hr.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday and Monday: VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday: VFR. N-NE winds G15-25 kt, highest
near the coast.

Wednesday: VFR. NE winds G20-30 kt, highest near the coast.

Thursday: VFR. N winds G15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA extended until 8 PM for NY Harbor and until midnight for
all other non-ocean waters as NW-N flow gusts to 25-30 kt. Gusts
to 25+ kt should continue longer tonight on the near shore
ocean waters, with seas up to 5 ft. Winds and seas should both
diminish before late morning Sunday.

Persistent NE winds can be expected Mon night thru Thu as low
pres remains S of the waters. Solid SCA conditions can be
expected thru the period, with gales possible on the ocean,
especially in the 20-60nm offshore zones.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-332-
     335-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     ANZ380-383-385.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/BG
AVIATION...20
MARINE...JMC/BG