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133
FXUS61 KOKX 230804
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
404 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the overall forecast.

Storm watches now in effect for offshore marine waters Thursday
night into Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A coastal storm could impact the area from Friday into
Sunday.

2) Coastal flooding, high surf and beach erosion could become a
concern this week, especially with the approach of the storm
Friday into Sunday.

3) A high rip current risk will persist into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Global models in agreement with a coastal low tracking SE of us
during the Friday-Saturday period, but differences show up
regarding how close the center of the storm will be and whether
or not it lingers nearby or retrogrades closer to us into
Sunday.

Regarding POPs and rainfall, its generally dry through Thursday
night then POPs start to increase from east to west. We are
looking at just chance POPs on Friday, with likely POPs
spreading westward Friday night and Saturday, then pushing east
of the area on Sunday. The likely POPs will be mainly confined
to Long Island (including portions of NYC) and southern CT.
Given that eastern zones in the forecast area generally handle
more rainfall before flooding vs western zones, flooding impacts
due to rainfall are not much of a concern at this point.

Still a few days out and with uncertainty with the exact track
of the low, will let subsequent shifts look at any need for
wind headlines. Not sure we reach wind warnings, but perhaps
advisories could be needed for some coastal areas as early as
late day Friday into Friday night.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Ahead of the storm, persistent NE flow between strong high
pressure to the north and the developing low to the south could
help trap water and allow it to pile through late week,
exacerbating the potential for tidal flooding.

Coastal Flood Statement hoisted for S Nassau for this aft/eve
high tide cycle. Brief minor flooding of the most vulnerable
locations is possible near the waterfront. A few of the most
vulnerable spots along the Great South Bay into SW Suffolk and
Staten Island and Hudson county in NJ may also briefly touch
minor flood benchmarks with this evening`s high tide.

Thereafter, the combination of NE winds, increasing astronomical
tides (full moon on Saturday), and building seas will likely result
in multiple episodes of minor to localized moderate coastal
flooding, dangerous rip currents, and beach flooding/erosion,
with the greatest impacts likely occurring Friday and Saturday.
The degree to which though will depend on the exact placement
and intensity of the system, with wind direction being a key
factor in determining the severity of coastal flood impacts.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
There is a high risk of rip currents along all local ocean
beaches through Thursday. Increasing E swells 8-10 ft at a 9-11
sec period, and strengthening NE flow above 20 kt drive this
risk.

The high risk persists through late this week with further
building ocean swells and winds as low pressure passes nearby.
Surf heights along the coastline increase through mid week as
well, potentially topping 6 ft by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR with high pressure over the terminals through the forecast
period.

NE winds through the period. Winds increase towards daybreak to
10 to around 15 kt, with gust 20-25 kt, especially at terminals
with good exposure from that direction such as KLGA/KBDR.
Speeds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt Wednesday
afternoon. Isolated gusts to around 35 kt, mainly Wednesday
morning into the early afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday night and Thursday: VFR. NE winds G25-30kt, highest
at the coastal terminals.

Friday and Saturday: MVFR or lower cond in showers as a coastal
storm nears the area. N-NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25 to
around 35 kt Friday, highest east of NYC metros and along the
coast. 30 to 40 kt possible Saturday, highest east. Winds/gusts
may be up to 10 kt higher than fcst if the storm is closer to
the area.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in showers. N-NE winds 15-20 G25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Overall, no significant changes to the marine forecasts as a
coastal low will impact the area waters through at least the
weekend and possibly into early next week.

Some changes to the headlines. First, for all the ocean waters.
Gale warnings remain in effect through Thursday. Thursday
night, the gales remain up on the near-shore ocean waters,
however will introduce a storm watch for the offshore ocean
waters from 20-60nm. The storm watch remains up through Friday,
however its very likely that the storm force gusts, if they do
occur will continue into Friday night and possible Saturday.

Second, gales on the non-ocean waters today have been changed
to small crafts. Thinking that we will fall just short of gales.
Still however, can not rule out a few occasional gusts to 35 kt
today. Small crafts on all of our non-ocean waters will be in
effect through the first part of Thursday night. For the
central and eastern sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the
south shore bays of Long Island, will introduce a gale watch for
the second half of Thursday night. Its likely gales will be
needed sometime late Thursday night into Friday.

Expect rough conditions on the area waters through at least the
weekend and into the first part of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday afternoon for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Gale Watch late Thursday night for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ335-338.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ380-383-385.
     Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
     ANZ380-383-385.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC/JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC