What's Happening In Newington

231
FXUS61 KOKX 161931
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers with potential thunderstorms late this evening into a
portion of Monday morning may produce locally heavy downpours. Minor
urban and poor drainage flooding is the main concern, but cannot
completely rule out a localized flash flood risk close to the
coast.

2) Dry with near normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday before
the next chance of showers or thunderstorms Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A concentrated area of showers approaching from the west should push
into the western zones toward the end of the afternoon, but a few
stray showers ahead of it may pass through. No thunder is expected
at least through the early evening with limited instability.

Afterwards, a warm front makes its closest approach to the southern
portion of the area late tonight into Monday morning. A weak wave of
low pressure is still progged to develop along the warm front and
then move over or just south of the area late tonight through Monday
morning. This will support the development of showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms. Instability should increase somewhat, but will be
dependent on how far north the warm front and the resulting track of
the low. If the low and front remain south of Long Island, showers
may end up mostly on the moderate side with perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm/heavy downpour, mainly confined to the southern half of
the area. If the low and front end up farther north over or just
north of Long Island, showers and a few thunderstorms could be
locally heavy at times, especially across portions of the NYC metro,
Long Island, and southern CT. Based on 12z Global and hi-res models,
it appears that low center will track over or just off the south
shore of Long Island, leaning towards the second scenario. With that
said, WPC has shifted the marginal risk of flash flooding towards
the SW and out the forecast area from the previous outlook. It now
just borders the SW zones, so the flash flooding threat appears to
be very low. PWATs should be able to climb to 2.00-2.25 inches.
However, limited instability should prevent anything more than
minor/urban poor drainage flooding, but still cannot completely rule
out a localized flash flood risk (noting still some decent llj
forcing). The risk of any localized flash flooding would most likely
end up late tonight/Monday morning when the warm front/low pressure
center, llj and associated upward forcing are closest to the area.
Average rainfall amounts range three tenths across interior CT and
the Lower Hudson Valley to one half to three quarters most
elsewhere. An inch is possible across parts of Long Island. Locally
higher amounts cannot be ruled out in any heavier downpours.

Severe thunderstorms are not expected through the entire event due
to the anticipated limited instability. However, will have to watch
near and along the warm front/low pressure center late
tonight/Monday morning if instability and shear were to increase
more than currently forecast.

Any lingering showers across E Long Island and SE Connecticut should
end by the end of Monday morning. A trailing cold front/surface
trough will move across the area late in the day, which may be
enough to support scattered shower and isolated thunder development.
The higher probability (chance) resides inland and across NE NJ and
NYC metro. Cannot rule out a brief locally heavy downpour. Farther
east, the chances are much lower due to subsidence immediately
behind the passing low pressure center.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will build over the area through the middle of the
week. This will lead to dry conditions and seasonably warm
temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Models continue to come into
better agreement with the next shortwave trough and associated cold
front moving over the northeast late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Much of the energy and lift may pass well to the NW, limiting
potential for showers/thunderstorms. However, there is still some
ensemble spread which is captured well with the NBM. PoPs increase
late Wednesday night and continue in the chance range through
Thursday afternoon.

Uncertainty is much higher for the end of the week/start of next
weekend. High pressure may build over the northeast, but the front
that moves through Thursday may stall to our south. Some of the
guidance hints at a few waves of low pressure riding along the
front. It remains to be seen if any unsettled weather will occur
heading into next weekend. The current NBM precip probabilities
indicate a slight chance on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore as a frontal system approaches
from the west this afternoon. The frontal system impacts the
terminals late this afternoon through Monday morning.

VFR through much of the day. Chances for MVFR increase late
this afternoon, mainly after 21Z, into this evening along with
the chance for showers. MVFR and SHRA will continue through
tonight. IFR is likely for more outlying terminals, especially
after 6Z, with less confidence for the NYC terminals. Indicated
this uncertainty in a PROB30 for the NYC terminals. SHRA ends
early Monday morning from 13-16Z, however MVFR/IFR cigs will
continue into Monday morning and possibly into early afternoon.
More outlying terminals may remain IFR/MVFR through the day
Monday. Low confidence of thunder and will leave out of the
TAF.

Winds increase out of the S this afternoon at around 10-15kt
with gusts from 20 to 25 kt, mainly along the coast, into the
evening and possibly overnight. Winds will shift to the west
and then northwest after 12-15Z Monday, later at eastern
terminals.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts and MVFR could be off by a few hours compared to TAF.

Timing of showers could be off by a few hours compared to TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: MVFR possible with the chance of additional
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance for showers and MVFR at night. A
slight chance of thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt
afternoon into early evening.

Thursday: A chance of showers with MVFR possible. Otherwise,
mainly VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
S flow gradually increases tonight. This will yield potential for 25-
30 kt wind gusts on NY Harbor, ocean, and south shore LI Bays where
a SCA remains posted. Winds on LI Sound and eastern LI Bays should
remain just below SCA levels, but a gust or two to 25 kt will be
possible. 25 kt wind gusts then likely linger on the ocean for a
portion of Monday. Seas will also build into this evening, reaching
4-7 ft late tonight into Monday morning. Seas subside Monday
afternoon and evening. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels
Monday night through Friday with a relatively weak pressure
gradient in place.

Rip Currents:
The rip current risk thru this eve is moderate as S winds continue
to increase. There is a high risk on Monday, although wrn beaches
could improve significantly by late mrng or early aftn with winds
shifting and diminishing. The risk on Tuesday is moderate due to a
lingering sely swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Monday morning through Monday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/JC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JMC/JC