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482
FXUS61 KOKX 170010
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
810 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower chance for late Thursday into Thursday night.

2) Dry and pleasant Friday into the start of the weekend.

3) Wet weather increasingly likely later in the weekend and possibly
carrying into the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure over the area shifts offshore to the east allowing for
a return S flow advecting moisture into the area late tonight into
Thursday. This may result in patchy fog into Thursday morning as
some locations are expected to cool fairly efficiently with a light
and variable wind.

Heights begin to lower late Thursday into Thursday night with the
approach of a cold front. There remains a the relatively higher
chance of showers late in the day Thursday and during Thursday
night. The consensus of the CAM guidance continues to suggest that
the activity initially will have difficulty holding together as it
translates east, with any activity right along the cold front
perhaps holding together some as it slides east. Essentially carried
chance to slight chance PoPs from NW to SE very late in the day Thu
through Thu night. The cold front is progged by NWP and AI consensus
to get off the coast by 12z Friday morning. QPF output at this time
remains rather light with generally less than a tenth of an inch of
rainfall, though northernmost spots may end up with a more than a
tenth of an inch.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

A cooler and drier airmass will gradually work in behind the cold
front during the day Friday and into Friday night. Dewpoints are
forecast the gradually fall through the 60s much of the day Friday,
and potentially into the middle and upper 40s later Friday night.
This would allow outlying areas to fall into the upper 40s and 50s
with respect to minimum temperatures by Saturday morning. With high
pressure getting further east during Saturday afternoon and a
developing easterly flow daytime temperatures across portions of the
area may struggle to get out of the upper 60s to begin the weekend.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...

During Saturday night, as high pressure departs the New England
coast a warm front will approach from the west. This will bring more
clouds Saturday night and the likelihood of rain towards Sunday
morning. Currently carrying likely PoPs throughout the day Sunday,
with high end chance PoPs Sunday night. Afterwards there is some
question as to where the front ultimately locks up during the first
half of next week with a suggestion that the front goes quasi-
stationary. Some NWP deterministic runs have shown the front nudging
to the south and allowing some high pressure to build from the
north, while the consensus of NWP and AI guidance suggests the front
remains nearby or at least close enough to bring an ongoing chance
of showers / rain for Monday through Wednesday. Forecast confidence
is below average at this time with uncertainty around the
positioning of the frontal boundary. Temperatures during this time
period may average slightly below normal with guidance indicating an
onshore easterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the area slides offshore tonight. A cold
front approaches from the west on Thursday.

VFR for most terminals. There is a low to medium chance for MVFR
cigs and vsby for KGON towards daybreak Thursday, so added a
TEMPO group to cover this potential. The MVFR conditions could
last into mid to late morning. There is a lower chance for MVFR
conditions at other outlying terminal, such as KSWF, but
confidence was lower, so did not include a TEMPO group here.

Southerly flow diminishes this evening, and may go light at many
terminals. S or SW flow resumes on Thursday, speeds around 10 kt
in the afternoon. Although a general southerly flow continues
tomorrow, sea breezes may shift winds more toward the SE for
KEWR and KTEB.

Approaching cold front could produce a few showers by late
Thursday afternoon, primarily at KSWF. Some showers may develop
out ahead of the front for all other terminals, so added VCSH
after 18Z, but best timing for showers is after 00Z Friday.
Chance for sub VFR conditions increases Thursday evening as the
showers spread east.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected through Thursday morning.
Amendments possible after 18Z Thursday with the possibility of
showers developing in the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday Night: MVFR or lower in any showers that move through,
but mainly VFR.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible in the morning, VFR by afternoon.

Saturday Night-Sunday: Showers possible Sat night, then
becoming likely on Sunday with MVFR or lower possible.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chance for showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure slowly slides south of the region tonight into
Thursday. The pressure gradient will remain weak throughout this
time frame with conditions remaining well below advisory levels.
Towards late Friday into Friday night marginal small craft
conditions may develop for portions of the ocean waters behind a
cold front on a NNW wind. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions are
expected Saturday with high pressure building to the north. The high
will move off the New England coast Saturday night into Sunday
allowing the winds to become more onshore. Marginal small craft
conditions are possible on all waters by Sunday.

Rip Currents...
For today the rip current risk should be low for the majority of the
day with the surf only getting to around a foot. A moderate risk of
rip currents is expected on all south-facing Long Island beaches on
Thursday, especially as a SE swell increases under an increasing
southerly wind wave in the afternoon. Winds go light and turn
N/NW on Friday, leading to a low rip current risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MW