NewingtonWeather.COM

520
FXUS61 KOKX 291832
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
232 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable conditions continue this weekend.

2) Turning unsettled Sunday afternoon through Thursday of next
week. There is the potential for impacts, but confidence of
impacts remains low this far out in time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure remains positioned over much of the area tonight and
into the first half of Sunday with much lower humidity and
seasonable or slightly below average temperatures tonight.
Temperatures will be right at seasonable levels tonight through the
day Sunday. Once the center of the high passes east of the region,
humidity levels will begin to increase later in the day Sunday and
into Sunday night with a brisk southerly return flow.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A mid and upper level ridge sets up to the west-southwest late
Sunday and into Monday. A cold front approaches from the Upper
Midwest and the Great Lakes along the northern periphery of the
ridge Sunday night. As the ridge works east Sunday night through
Wednesday of next week, there remains good Global NWP and AI
agreement with the mid level mass fields. Our area will remain on
the northern periphery of upper level ridging. Our position on the
edge of this ridge will put the area in a good position to be
impacted by several shortwaves that are expected to slide along the
northern portion of the ridge.

As a surface low pressure system develops ahead of these
shortwaves, the warm front is expected to progress east and
likely just to the north or on the northern edge of the CWA into
Tuesday and Wednesday, which has often been the case this warm
season thus far. The area will be more unstable immediately
south of the warm/stationary boundary, but our area should
remain close enough to boundary to allow a good amount of
synoptic scale/mid level forcing. This suggests a period of
unsettled weather with the potential for some periods of
convectively induced rainfall.

There may also be some favorable jet dynamics to enhance
precipitation for Sunday night into Monday, but the NAM and GFS
differ on the location of the jet streak. While there remains
forecast uncertainty this far out, it appears the region will have
the potential for convectively induced heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorm activity. WPC currently has the area under a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall Monday through Thursday morning, and SPC
persists in placing the area in a 15 percent chance of severe
weather on Day 5 (Wednesday) which is rare to see this far out in
time. So the middle of next week will bear watching as PWATs are
progged to climb into the 1.5-2 inch neighborhood by Tuesday into
Thursday.

The associated cold front approaches Wednesday night and the cold
front moves through on Thursday, continuing the chances for
unsettled weather through at least this time frame.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure moves across the terminals this afternoon into
tonight. For Sunday, a frontal system approaches from the west.

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Possible
showers for 30 hr TAF sites for 18Z Sunday to 00Z Monday, only
have KSWF with PROB30 SHRA MVFR though. Other 30 hr TAF sites
keep VFR with PROB30 SHRA.

Winds will be variable with high pressure moving in but southern
coastal terminals expected to have sea breeze this afternoon. Some
terminals  will have this sea breeze not until early evening and
some will just have light westerly flow. Winds tonight into Sunday
will generally be southerly but for more inland terminals will be
more variable. Wind speeds stay mostly near the 5-10 kt range.
Southerly winds get more into 10-15 kt range Sunday afternoon.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for wind direction as this could
occasionally be significantly different from the TAF.

KJFK sea breeze arrival time may be off by 1 hour.

KLGA sea breeze arrival time may be off by 1-2 hours.

KEWR low chance for sea breeze early evening, 22-00Z.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers afternoon
into night. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. Gusts up to 20 kt
possible afternoon into early evening.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with showers likely. A
chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with chances of showers.
Showers likely early.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions prevail this weekend and into early next
week with ocean seas ranging from 2 to 3 ft. High pressure settling
over the waters will result in a weak pressure gradient, and thus
light winds and diminished seas.

Occasional/brief gusts to 25 kt are possible late Sunday into Sunday
night likely associated with the NY Bight coastal jet.

Marginal small craft conditions become more likely Wednesday night
into Thursday with seas likely building to 4 to 5 ft in an
increasing southerly flow.

Rip Currents:

There is a low risk of rip current development through the rest of
today with light flow and SE swells around 2 ft. Increasing S-SW
winds and building seas to 3 ft Sunday afternoon will increase the
risk to moderate along local ocean beaches. The risk returns to low
on Monday as the flow lightens and swells fall to around 2 ft once
again.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DR/MW