NewingtonWeather.COM

064
FXUS61 KOKX 281525
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1125 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances for showers and thunderstorms has decreased for this
afternoon. Only isolated activity is expected with minimal
to no impacts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry and seasonable this weekend.

2) Periods of unsettled weather next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Any showers and thunderstorms should be isolated in coverage
this afternoon / early this evening, and expected to be right
along the cold frontal boundary. Best chances look to be in S CT
and Eastern LI, but could still see a few storms anywhere in
the area this afternoon. Impacts are expected to be minimal to
none. Otherwise, high temps this afternoon will be seasonal in
the lower to middle 80s. Cooler and drier air moves in tonight
thanks to the front moving further east with drier, cooler NW
flow behind the front. Lows tonight get into the lower 50s to
middle 60s, with the warmer spots at the coast. This is mainly
due to sky cover clearing out slowly NW to SW. If cloud cover
clears out quicker than anticipated, we could have better
radiational cooling brining temps lower than currently forecast.

This weekend, a closed low will move into Quebec from the Hudson
Bay. The axis of the longwave trough from this will shift east of
the area this weekend, with weak high pressure building in from the
west. Mainly dry conditions are anticipated this weekend until
perhaps Sunday night, when a weak shortwave could bring a few
showers or storms with it. Temperatures will remain close to
seasonal.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
At the start of next week, a quasi-stationary backdoor front
will set up across or just north of the area. Simultaneously,
several mid- level shortwaves will traverse the region. These
two features will be the focus of several shots of showers and
thunderstorms at the beginning to the middle of next week.

Global model guidance varies on the magnitude and timing of the
shortwaves and the location of the quasi-stationary front. When and
where we see showers and thunderstorms will depend greatly on the
timing and placement of these two features.

Otherwise, next week will see ample cloud cover given the unsettled
weather pattern and temperatures remaining close seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will move through today. High pressure builds in
tonight.

Outside of KGON and KISP this morning, mainly VFR conditions
expected during the TAF period. For KGON and KISP, MVFR ceilings
until early this afternoon, with possible IFR ceilings.

There could be a few pop-up showers or thunderstorms as well.
Some possible MVFR as a result between 18Z today and 00Z
Saturday. Thunder probability too low to include in TAFs. Do
have some mention of MVFR showers though with PROB30 groups.

Winds are light under 10 kts with some variability in direction
initially. The winds are expected to become more NW to W this
afternoon with some switch to more SW along the coast late this
afternoon. KGON and KBDR are already having SW flow however.

Northerly flow less than 10 kts expected tonight into
early Saturday.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Mid afternoon into early evening sea breeze possible.

KJFK likely a S-SW wind mid to late this afternoon.

KLGA possible SW wind late this afternoon.

KEWR possible SE wind late this afternoon into early this
evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday-Sunday: VFR.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in showers
and/or thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions will remain in place on all waters today through
this weekend and into the first part of next week.

Rip Currents:

Swell weakens over the next few days. There is generally no
significant wind component. There is a moderate risk for rip
currents today. There is a low risk for rip currents Saturday..

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE/BR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR