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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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915 FXUS61 KOKX 182326 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 726 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for aviation. No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Potential for periods of rain Thursday through the weekend. Impacts appear to be limited at this time. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front approaches Wednesday and pushes through Wednesday night. It will then stall over or near the area through the weekend. Shortwave energy pivoting through the base of a longwave trough will likely generate multiple waves of low pressure that will move along the stalled front. Exact location of this front will determine timing, location and amount of rainfall. General consensus from latest guidance has the front placed offshore through much of this period, but there is still a good amount of uncertainty. A very large spread exists in the latest NBM QPF percentiles. Looking at 10th and 90th percentiles for multiple 24 hour periods Thursday through Monday, the 10th percentile is completely dry each period while the 90th percentile maxes out with the 24 hour period ending 00z Sunday with 1.5 to 2.5 inches across the area. The wetter solution could potentially bring periods of heavy rain and in turn a flooding threat, but this is a low probability at this time. WPC has a marginal threat for excessive rain south of the area for Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak low pressure continues to move farther east of the region with weak troughing remaining over the region. A ridge of high pressure builds on Wednesday. Mainly VFR expected for the TAF period. The exception is for outlying and coastal terminals overnight / very early Wed AM with a chance of low stratus (mainly KGON, KISP, KHPN), but most confident in KGON. Mainly S-SW winds this evening before going light and variable overnight. Light N/NW wind by early Wednesday morning becomes more W/SW by afternoon, mainly 7-10kt. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low chance of low stratus late overnight, mainly 7Z-11Z. Not currently reflected in TAFs for city terminals. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday: VFR. Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower at times. Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times. Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times. Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A light pressure gradient will lead to sub-SCA conditions through the weekend. Rip Currents: The risk decreases to low both Wednesday and Thursday with a weakening swell and winds largely under 10 kt. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...JE MARINE...JP |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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