What's Happening In Newington

671
FXUS61 KOKX 101157
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
757 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Milder and predominantly dry today into Saturday.

2. Potential fire weather concerns Saturday.

3. Noticeably warmer next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A high pressure ridge will be in place today providing milder
temperatures and dry conditions. Other than a southerly wind off the
colder ocean during the afternoon keeping coastal locations
relatively cooler, temperatures overall will be noticeably milder
than the past several days. A shortwave will pass to the north
tonight into Saturday morning. This will push a cold front through
the region late tonight and early Saturday morning. The front for
the most part will pass through dry, although there will be a chance
of a few brief showers mainly across northern portions of the area
tonight as the shortwave lifts up into Northern New England and SE
Canada.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of NW winds gusting 20 to 25 mph, minimum RH values
of 25 to 35 percent, and low fuel moisture, will likely lead to an
elevated threat for wildfire spread Saturday. No special products
have been issued as of yet, but ongoing collaboration with state
land managers may result in a fire related product.

Kept continuity with previous fcst and went above the NBM for wind
speeds/gusts, and decreased dew points slightly on Saturday as the
NBM is typically too high with dew points, and too low with winds in
these well-mixed NW flow situations.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The models are in good agreement with a notable warmup into next
week. A warm front lifts to the NW of the area Sunday night into
Monday as H85 temps approach 10 to 12C. Also the low level flow will
generally be W or WSW. Therefore most, if not all areas will warm up
quite a bit, even at the coasts. As is often the case this time of
year with any warm up attempts, seas breeze development will likely
make pushes during the afternoon / evening time frame most days. The
question will be whether the flow aloft will be strong enough at
times to hold off the inland push of any sea breezes. Stuck with the
NBM numbers for now, but these numbers may be too low based on the
flow and can be adjusted in subsequent cycles as needed. Towards Wed
there is good agreement among forecast guidance that H85 temps
approach 15 to 16C which would theoretically result in sfc
temperatures getting well into the 80s across most areas away from
the immediate shore.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front approaches late today into this evening and passes
through late tonight. This will give a brief round of showers that
probably not even reach all terminals. They will be more
probable north of NYC terminals.

Category forecast is mainly VFR through the TAF period. Initially,
this morning, mainly MVFR, localized IFR, mainly for stratus,
is forecast for some of the terminals along the coast. A few
terminals have higher chances of showers and brief MVFR late
tonight, such as KSWF, KHPN and KBDR.

Wind forecast starts out light, at or less than 5 kts, with variable
direction this morning. Then, winds pick up from S-SW,
increasing to near 10-15 kt for the rest of the day. There will
be some gusts to near 20 kt for the afternoon, especially with
sea breeze enhancement. Winds slightly decrease this evening and
then switch to more NW direction behind the cold front late
tonight without much additional change in speed. NW wind gusts
up to near 20 kt begin developing towards daybreak Saturday.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

IFR possible before 16Z. MVFR end time could be 1-2 hours off
from TAF.

Some fluctuation possible between scattered and broken coverage
of the low stratus, thereby making for fluctuation of
categories between MVFR and VFR.

Timing of showers could be a few hours off from TAF.

KJFK could have southerly winds reach near 20 kt late in the
afternoon with gusts near 25-30 kt possible for a brief time.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Sunday: VFR. SE winds G15-20kt.

Monday: VFR. SW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 15 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions are expected to develop on the ocean waters
later today, mainly by the late afternoon as seas climb to around
feet late today into this evening and gusts approach 25 kt on the
ocean, especially closer to shore. Ocean seas get closer to 6 ft
tonight and then should begin to subside gradually during the day on
Saturday. By later Saturday afternoon seas are expected to fall
below small craft criteria. Sub advisory conditions will be short
lived on the ocean as small craft conditions are likely to return by
early Monday morning as a cold front draws closer from the west. A S
flow ahead of the front should get wind gusts to 25 kt on most
waters on Monday with ocean seas getting close to 6 feet. Sub
advisory conditions likely will not return until late Monday night
into Tuesday as high pressure builds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE