NewingtonWeather.COM

580
FXUS61 KOKX 011429
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
929 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and increasingly mild conditions should continue into
mid week.

2) The next chance of a wetting rain will be late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The driest stretch of the year so far will persist in response
to confluent NW upper flow giving way to East Coast upper
ridging thru mid week. At the surface, modified Canadian high
pressure builds overhead today, and then passes gradually
offshore through mid week.

Sunny skies today (outside of a bit of a veil of cirrus), dry
and seasonably cool. High temps will be slightly milder than
those of Sat, generally in the upper 50s/lower 60s, with an
afternoon return flow.

Slightly milder temps for tonight/early Mon mrng with light
return flow developing. This does bring the potential for
patchy fog in addition to patchy frost conditions for outlying
areas.

Conditions gradually moderate early to mid next week as heights
rise aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return SW
flow. High temps will incrementally rise through the 60s each
day, to near 10 degrees above seasonable (upper 60s/lower 70s)
by Wed/Thu. Similarly, overnight lows will rise from the 30s/40s
Mon morning to 50s/near 60 by Thu morning (close to normal
high temps for parts of the area this time of year).


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
There remains general agreement on a frontal system and/or low
pressure affecting the area late in the week into the weekend
with a wetting rainfall. The 00Z GFS timing suggests Fri and
Sat the best chances for rain, but the NBM has not latched on to
this trend yet. The AI-GFS is faster, which supports sticking
with the NBM attm. Notably the AI-GFS is dry with the upr low at
the end of the event, whereas the other modeling produces rain
as the H5 low swings thru.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the period, sliding just
offshore later this afternoon.

VFR throughout the TAF period.

Winds will be light and under 5 kt initially, then back NW-W during
towards or just after midday, and then W-SW a few hours later in
this afternoon. Coastal terminals should see some sea breeze
enhancement and/or winds backing a little more southerly this
afternoon. Overnight, winds go light and variable at most terminals.
Tomorrow, SW winds develop and get to 7-10 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday through Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday: VFR more likely early, with the probability higher late
for showers with MVFR or lower cond developing.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA cond should continue on all waters through at least Wed
night as high pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient.
Hazardous seas over 5 ft are possible on the ocean waters out 20
nm Fri via increasing S-SE flow ahead of an approaching frontal
system.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...