NWS
NOAA / NWS Text Products
Official forecast-office discussions, statements and outlooks
Local default: New York / Upton (OKX)
Browse official National Weather Service text products by forecast office and product type. Availability varies by office, season and active weather.
Forecast DiscussionForecaster reasoning, trends and confidence behind the forecast.
Hazardous OutlookPotential weather hazards expected during the coming days.
Public InformationStorm summaries, climate notes and special NWS statements.
Local Storm ReportsReports of severe weather, flooding, wind, hail and other impacts.
Tip: For Newington, leave the office set to New York / Upton (OKX), then choose the product you want to read.
Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
602 FXUS61 KOKX 291958 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 358 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High pressure settles across the area mid week with a warming trend into the end of the week. 2) Low pressure may bring some rain late in the weekend. Impacts appear unlikely at this time. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... The coastal storm that brought impacts to the region throughout this past weekend continues to fill in and weaken as it drifts away to the northeast. The longwave trough axis associated with it pivots well east of the area tonight. This will allows rising heights to work in behind its departure. What this ultimately results in is a warming trend and a predominantly dry weather regime through much of the remainder of the work week. The only minor sensible wx adjustment was to add patchy fog across mainly the non-urban sections late tonight. If enough SCT-BKN cloud cover persists then the patchy fog will not be realized. However, fx soundings hinted at fog formation enough with some residual moisture along and just above ground level that some coverage of patchy fog was added from midnight to just after sunrise Wed AM. A cold front approaches during the day Friday. However, it appears that the forcing will be weak with limited low level moisture in place. Thus the only sensible weather change would be an increase in cloud cover and a chance of showers late Friday and possible into Friday night. Rainfall amounts should be quite light with an overall lack of upper level support and lift. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The cold front previously mentioned via Key Message 1 is expected to stall well south of the area down towards the lower Mid Atlantic region. A packet of upper level of mainly Pacific origin is progged to progress east across the nation`s mid section this weekend and get closer to the region during Sunday. How much upper level energy stays intact will determine how much the energy can interact with the stalled boundary and whether sufficient low pressure development can take place late in the weekend. Forecast guidance with both AI and NWP models differ in how much low pressure development takes place, and thus ultimately how far north coastal low pressure can lift north. This will determine how far north any rain can gets and whether our area will see a wet close to the weekend. At this time the upper level pattern does not support another major coastal storm as forecast guidance consensus point to a weaker area of low pressure. Thus, at this time impacts appear unlikely. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure gradually builds in from the west, eventually moving more offshore late in the TAF period. Potential for leftover MVFR stratus before 00Z, with otherwise a mainly VFR TAF period. Possibility for some fog and/or low stratus with MVFR conditions late tonight outside of NYC terminals. Regarding winds, mainly NW flow for rest of afternoon into early Wednesday. Some terminals will be more variable with wind direction. KJFK forecast to get more of a sea breeze and possibly a few other terminals could get a sea breeze late this afternoon into early this evening. Wind speeds near 10 kts or less for the TAF period. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Late day sea breeze possible at KLGA and KEWR. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday-Thursday night: VFR. Friday-Saturday: MVFR possible with possible showers. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Saturday night-Sunday: Chance of showers. MVFR or lower possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Ocean wave heights continue to gradually lower from around 3 ft on average, to closer to 2 ft through mid week as a high pressure ridge works in from the west. This will provide a weak pressure gradient, and thus light winds and quieter seas. Towards late Thursday and into Friday a prevailing SW flow increases some. However, conditions at this time are expected to remain below advisory levels. By Friday night a cold front moves across the waters resulting in a wind shift to the N, and eventually to the NE during Saturday. Gusts out on the ocean and some of the non-ocean waters approach 20 kt with ocean seas likely up to around 4 ft, thus non-advisory conditions are forecast early on in the weekend. A long E-SE fetch is then expected to develop Sunday with a greater chance of advisory level conditions by then. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JE AVIATION...JM MARINE...JE |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Official text products courtesy of NOAA / National Weather Service.