What's Happening In Newington

538
FXUS61 KOKX 101742
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
142 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Milder and predominantly dry today into Saturday.

2. Potential fire weather concerns Saturday.

3. Noticeably warmer next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A high pressure ridge will be in place today providing milder
temperatures and dry conditions. Other than a southerly wind off the
colder ocean during the afternoon keeping coastal locations
relatively cooler, temperatures overall will be noticeably milder
than the past several days. A shortwave will pass to the north
tonight into Saturday morning. This will push a cold front through
the region late tonight and early Saturday morning. The front for
the most part will pass through dry, although there will be a chance
of a few brief showers mainly across northern portions of the area
tonight as the shortwave lifts up into Northern New England and SE
Canada.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The combination of NW winds gusting 20 to 25 mph, minimum RH values
of 25 to 35 percent, and low fuel moisture, will likely lead to an
elevated threat for wildfire spread Saturday. No special products
have been issued as of yet, but ongoing collaboration with state
land managers may result in a fire related product.

Kept continuity with previous fcst and went above the NBM for wind
speeds/gusts, and decreased dew points slightly on Saturday as the
NBM is typically too high with dew points, and too low with winds in
these well-mixed NW flow situations.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The models are in good agreement with a notable warmup into next
week. A warm front lifts to the NW of the area Sunday night into
Monday as H85 temps approach 10 to 12C. Also the low level flow will
generally be W or WSW. Therefore most, if not all areas will warm up
quite a bit, even at the coasts. As is often the case this time of
year with any warm up attempts, seas breeze development will likely
make pushes during the afternoon / evening time frame most days. The
question will be whether the flow aloft will be strong enough at
times to hold off the inland push of any sea breezes. Stuck with the
NBM numbers for now, but these numbers may be too low based on the
flow and can be adjusted in subsequent cycles as needed. Towards Wed
there is good agreement among forecast guidance that H85 temps
approach 15 to 16C which would theoretically result in sfc
temperatures getting well into the 80s across most areas away from
the immediate shore.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold frontal passage occurs late tngt. High pres builds in
from the W on Sat.

Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. There could be a brief period of
MVFR with any passing shwrs invof the cold front overnight.
Prob30s and VCSH maintained in the TAFS mainly N and W of the
NYC arpts.

SW winds back to sea breeze flow this aftn. Strongest winds
expected at JFK. Flow weakens and becomes SW tngt ahead of the
front, then NW behind the front. NW flow gusting to around 25kt
on Sat.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

KJFK could have winds reach near 20 kt late in the afternoon
with gusts near 30 kt possible for a brief time.

Winds at EWR may remain closer to 180 true if the sea breeze
does not make it far enough in. Variability in wind direction
also possible if the boundary sets up near the arpt.

TEB may go closer to 170 true if the sea breeze makes it far
enough N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Rest of Saturday: VFR. NW winds gusting around 25kt, decreasing
aft 22Z.

Sunday: VFR. SE winds 10-20kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. SW winds gusting 20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 20kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 10-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions are expected to develop on the ocean waters
later today, mainly by the late afternoon as seas climb to around
feet late today into this evening and gusts approach 25 kt on the
ocean, especially closer to shore. Ocean seas get closer to 6 ft
tonight and then should begin to subside gradually during the
day on Saturday. By later Saturday afternoon seas are expected
to fall with gusts near 25-30 kt possible for a brief time below
small craft criteria. Sub advisory conditions will be short
lived on the ocean as small craft conditions are likely to
return by early Monday morning as a cold front draws closer from
the west. A S flow ahead of the front should get wind gusts to
25 kt on most waters on Monday with ocean seas getting close to
6 feet. Sub advisory conditions likely will not return until
late Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE/DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JE/DW