NWS
NOAA / NWS Text Products
Official forecast-office discussions, statements and outlooks
Local default: New York / Upton (OKX)
Browse official National Weather Service text products by forecast office and product type. Availability varies by office, season and active weather.
Forecast DiscussionForecaster reasoning, trends and confidence behind the forecast.
Hazardous OutlookPotential weather hazards expected during the coming days.
Public InformationStorm summaries, climate notes and special NWS statements.
Local Storm ReportsReports of severe weather, flooding, wind, hail and other impacts.
Tip: For Newington, leave the office set to New York / Upton (OKX), then choose the product you want to read.
Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
|
| Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
825
FXUS61 KOKX 150543
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1243 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for 06Z TAFs.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An extended stretch of dry weather is expected for next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Sfc trough moves through this evening with some isolated
sprinkles or flurries. Otherwise, an upper level trough over the
region will slide eastward through early Monday as upper level
ridging builds over the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region
by mid week. The ridge will make its way into the Northeast
toward the end of the week. At the surface, high pressure
builds in and settles to the south by the end of the week. This
will result in an extended period of dry weather and gradually
warmer temperatures for the week. Temps close to or slightly
below normal through Mon will moderate to above normal, with
highs into the lower/mid 60s for Wed-Sat.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in from the south and west
through the TAF period.
VFR.
Winds remain WNW-NW around 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt through
much of the TAF period. Outside of NYC terminals, gusts largely
diminish overnight, with occasional gusts possible before
becoming more frequent again 14-16Z later today.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts early this morning could be more occasional at times.
Winds could at times fluctuate 10-20 degrees to the left and
right of 310 magnetic.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Monday through Thursday...
Tonight: VFR. NW winds under 10 kt.
Monday-Thursday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Still seeing gusts over 25 kt on the ocean at 44065 and seas 5
ft at 44025, so SCA remains in effect W of Fire Island Inlet
until midnight, and will remain in effect E of there until 6 AM
Sunday. There is still a chance that the advy could be extended
into the rest of Sunday morning especially E of Moriches Inlet.
Otherwise, winds and seas should remain quiet for an extended
stretch through this upcoming week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Goodman
AVIATION...DR/JT
MARINE...Goodman
|
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Official text products courtesy of NOAA / National Weather Service.