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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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149 FXUS61 KOKX 100027 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 827 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Quickly diminishing flash flood and severe wind threat early this evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm wind threat late afternoon and evening Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy Friday, with heat indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday. 2) Isolated showers late Saturday aft/eve, otherwise dry conditions for the upcoming weekend into Monday with seasonably warm temperatures. 3) Hot and humid conditions build for Tue and Wed next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered shower and isolated tstm activity will primarily affect NE NJ/NYC metro and surroundings thru this evening ahead of an approaching shearing shortwave in a marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment, and a weak surface low pressure wave tracking across the northern Mid- Atlantic, and lee/pre- frontal surface trough approaching from the west. Primary threat will be for localized torrential downpours, with a low and localized flash flood threat ( |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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Some may differ only in time posted.)
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