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233
FXUS61 KOKX 301958 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
358 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes since previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms through much of the
forecast period with more of a focus for Tuesday into Tuesday
night as well as Wednesday into Wednesday night. Marginal flood
risk especially Tuesday into Tuesday night and slight flood risk
for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Possible strong to severe
thunderstorms as well, mainly for western portions of the region.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Basically, a series of shortwaves move along the NE edge of a ridge
across the local area into this week. Meanwhile, the ridge stays
centered well to our south and west. At the surface, a series of
weak areas of low pressure move across the local region into this
week.

There is not much in the way of instability, except for western
parts of the region late this afternoon into early this evening for
the midweek period. The midweek period overall has a larger signal
for widespread instability. The LREF mean surface CAPE has values
around 1000 J/kg for Tuesday into Tuesday night as well as Wednesday
into Wednesday night.

Models exhibit a general increase in the 850mb temperatures of a few
degrees C Tuesday afternoon into early evening. 850mb temperatures
roughly stay the same for Wednesday afternoon into early evening. It
is the Tuesday through Wednesday night timeframe, that is conveying
within the models precipitable waters near 2 inches across much of
the region. The LREF mean precipitable waters is near 1.8 to 1.9
inches within this timeframe across the area.

In addition, bulk shear from models shows 35-50 kt 0-6 km AGL for
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon into evening, more for the GFS than
the NAM.

The probability for showers and thunderstorms remains during the
forecast period. Likely POPs for parts of the region tonight,
but mostly isolated to scattered. Likely POPs as well for late
Monday night into early Tuesday, Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night, and Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Those
timeframes are when shower coverage will be relatively more
especially towards and within midweek. Thunderstorm chances are
present more towards and during the midweek period, especially
for afternoon into evening hours. This will relatively increase
the severe and flood threats. At this time, flood threats are
still marginal considering the uncertainty in timing and
location of convection but did increase to slight on Wednesday.
Areas that received convective rainfall will already be primed for
next few rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into
Wednesday night so relatively more chance for flooding.
Synoptically though the midweek period has a frontal boundary
within the region for more of that timeframe, Tuesday through
Wednesday night and more low level thermodynamics.

With the aforementioned instability and shear, Tuesday and Wednesday
look to have more possibility for strong to severe thunderstorm
activity, mainly across western portions of the region. SPC already
has western parts of the area in mainly marginal for Day 3 (Tuesday
into Tuesday night) and slight for Day 4 (Wednesday into Wednesday
night).

There is uncertainty overall with the forecast with timing and
placement of showers and thunderstorms. The CAMs and forecast models
have differences in their handling of the shortwaves and with the
timing of convection. It will not be raining the entire time for the
entire forecast region.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure shifts offshore as a frontal system moves through
later today into tonight.

Mainly VFR. Chances for MVFR cigs and vsbys this afternoon into
this evening with possible showers and thunderstorms. PROB30
for TSRA late afternoon/evening today for most terminals. While
MVFR remains possible at times overnight, decided to keep a
mainly VFR forecast through at least Monday morning. There is
some uncertainty on whether SHRA persist into the night so left
VCSH in most of terminals with VFR conditions. Drier conditions
expected by Monday 12Z through the afternoon.

S/SW winds increase to 10-15 kt this afternoon with occasional gusts
up to around 20 kt. Winds diminish early tonight as directions
turn NW. Late into the night, winds become light and variable at
some terminals and may remain light and variable through Monday
morning. Tomorrow, winds NE becoming SE 5-10 kt, mainly into
the afternoon.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

PROB30s for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.

Gusts may end up being more occasional this afternoon.

Uncertainty on whether showers will linger late into the night.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible with chance of
showers in the afternoon.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with showers likely. A
chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with chances of showers.
Showers likely early.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in possible SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient across the waters into this week is not
expected to be that steep. Outside of a few occasional gusts up to
25 kt on parts of the ocean into tonight, conditions on the forecast
waters are expected to remain below SCA thresholds.

Rip Currents:

Increased S-SW winds and seas around 3 ft this afternoon will drive
a moderate risk of rip currents along local ocean beaches for the
rest of the day. The risk returns to low for Monday and Tuesday as
the flow lightens and swells fall to around 2 ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM