What's Happening In Newington

978
FXUS61 KOKX 201435
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
935 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes made to forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Temperatures remain below normal through at least early next
week with the exception of Thursday.

2.) Potential for snow late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Some of the coldest air of the season builds into the region
today with temperatures only reaching the lower and middle 20s.
A gusty west wind will make it feel even cold with wind chill
values only in the single digits. This is about 15 to 20 degrees
below normal.

As high pressure builds in tonight, wind diminish and lows will get
into the single digits inland and the lower teens at the coast.


As the high slides east and a return flow sets up, temperatures warm
a bit on Wednesday and then a few degrees further on Thursday. Highs
on Wednesday will be in the upper 20s and 30s. Thursday will be the
warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

A cold front moves across the region late Thursday, followed by a
second on Friday evening. It will be this second cold front that
brings a modified Arctic air mass into the area for the weekend.
Highs on Friday will be in the middle 20s to lower 30s. The weekend
and start of next week will see highs only in the teens and lower
20s. Overnight lows will fall into the single digits.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
We will continue to monitor a low pressure system moving out of the
middle portion of the country which is expected to move off the
Middle Atlantic coast early Sunday morning and pass south of long
island during the day Sunday. With plenty of cold air in place, any
precipitation will be in the form of snow. The question is how far
north the precipitation field from this low reaches. 00z GFS/CMC has
the area seeing a period of snow during this period. Will continue
to stick close to the NBM guidance. The forecast carries a chance of
snow from Sat night into Sunday night, though it is still way too
early to get into specifics.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in through the day.

VFR.

W winds around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt. Gusts subside early
evening, and winds lighten further into early Wed morning.
Winds shift more SW then eventually S into Wednesday late
morning/early afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts around 30 kt possible this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. SW-S winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: A period of MVFR or lower possible with a band of rain
or snow.

Friday: VFR with W winds becoming NW G25-35kt.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible depending on the track, timing,
and intensity of possible low pres.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A gusty west flow will produce SCA conditions across all waters
today, persisting on the ocean through the early morning hours
Wednesday. Seas on the ocean are expected to build as high as 5
to 9 ft, highest east of Moriches Inlet due to the westerly
fetch. Waves on the sound will get up to 3 to 5 ft. Winds and
seas will begin to gradually subside tonight.

Some freezing spray is possible from through at least the first
part of tonight.

A brief lull Wednesday morning will be replaced by a
strengthening SW flow in the afternoon with the return of SCA
conditions on the ocean waters. The SCA conditions will continue
on the ocean through Friday morning ahead of and behind a cold
frontal passage, with SW-W flow gusting to 25 kt and seas 5-7
ft. An Arctic cold frontal passage Friday afternoon should then
bring SCA conditions to all waters Friday afternoon/night, with
NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and occasional gusts to 35 kt on the
ocean, and seas 5-6 ft.

SCA conditions should continue on the ocean Sat into Sat night, with
NW-N flow gusting to 25-30 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt may also be
possible on the non ocean waters as well Sat night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC/MW