NewingtonWeather.COM

852
FXUS61 KOKX 301351
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
951 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased forecast sustained winds and gusts by about 15-25
percent across land and waters for this afternoon into tonight.
Expanded SCA for all waters this afternoon into tonight.
Otherwise, no significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) There`s an elevated risk of fire spread for the Lower Hudson
Valley and southern Connecticut today.

2) Frost-Freeze conditions likely outside of NYC/NJ metro
Saturday Night into Sunday AM. Otherwise, dry conditions
persist through at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

The combination of sufficiently dry fuels, gusty NW winds 25 to
35 mph and relatively low RH values behind a cold frontal
passage this morning will lead to an elevated risk of fire
spread, particularly for Lower Hudson valley and southern CT
this afternoon.

In collaboration with state partners and neighboring forecast
offices, a Special Weather Statement for southern Connecticut
and the Lower Hudson Valley remains to highlight this threat
thru 6 PM today.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

The driest stretch of the year so far persists for the next
several days.

Highs today will reach the mid 60s to low 70s before a cold
front passes by midday into early afternoon. The cold front will
be dry with only brief increasing clouds into the morning,
clearing into the evening. Following the front, winds veer NW
with gusts 25-35 mph this afternoon into the first half of
tonight.

Behind the fropa, dry, cooler conditions settle in for the
weekend. Saturday will be cooler as afternoon highs fall back in
the upper 50s/lower 60s, with evening temperatures in the 40s
and upper 30s outside of NYC.

Overnight lows Saturday night will likely drop into the mid/low
40s in the NYC metro/Nassau, then into the 30s elsewhere.
Although some interior spots and the LI Pine Barrens will likely
drop below freezing as winds drop off under clear skies
allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Frost-freeze
conditions are likely Saturday night outside the NYC metro.

Guidance continues to keep dry conditions in place through early
next week with temperatures gradually warming each day. Conditions
may begin to turn more unsettled by mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. A cold front moves through later this morning into the
afternoon. No precipitation is expected with its passage.

WSW winds become W-NW with the frontal passage. Speeds increase
to 10-20 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by late morning, increasing
to 20-25 kt during the afternoon. Gusts subside 00-03Z but
remain NW.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of onset of stronger winds daytime Fri could occur 1-2
hours earlier than fcst. Ending time of gusts may also be off
by 1 or 2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night and Saturday: VFR. Diminishing NW winds Fri
evening.

Sunday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA expanded to all waters for this afternoon into tonight as
NW flow gusts around 25 kt after a cold frontal passage in the
morning.

Winds will gradually subsides late tonight into Saturday as
high pressure build in for the weekend. Sub-SCA conditions then
expected on all waters through at least early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR/NV
AVIATION...DBR/DR
MARINE...BR/NV