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325
FXUS61 KOKX 091155
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
655 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A series of weak cold fronts push through over the next couple of
days. Despite this it remains predominantly dry and seasonably mild.

2) Low pressure may impact the region late Thursday into Friday
night, bringing potential of widespread rain and gusty winds.
Impacts, if any, at this time remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Predominantly dry with temperatures averaging a bit above
normal through the first half of the week. Low pressure across
Eastern Canada persists, with the region between the low to the
north and high pressure to the southwest. This results in a
pressure gradient in place with breezy conditions much of the
time, especially for today into this early this evening. The
winds should subside briefly late tonight before breezy
conditions return during Tuesday. With regard to temperatures
look for comfortably mild and breezy conditions the next couple
of days, with cool night time temperatures.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The medium range global and AI guidance continue to wrestle with
different details / scenarios with regard to low pressure emerging
out of the Ohio Valley during Wednesday night into Thursday. The
difference among the NWP and AI guidance increases Friday into early
Saturday with regard to whether the upper level energy catches up to
sfc low pressure and lower level moisture. This scenario would stall
low pressure and give it another means to deepen later Friday into
early Saturday. Thus there are two solutions. The first being a
flatter wave which brings light rain Thursday into Friday morning,
with low pressure strengthening well offshore with clearing to begin
the weekend. The second scenario would involve a less progressive
storm system with consolidated redevelopment off the Northern Mid
Atlantic coast just south of Long Island with rain redeveloping
later Friday and Friday night and potentially lasting into Saturday
morning. At this time impacts appear limited with rain being more
stratiform in nature and the winds likely having enough of a
northerly component which would limit any coastal flood concerns. It
is possible that some wet snow could mix in with any rain in the
higher elevations well inland as the region gets on the back side of
the storm system Friday night / early Saturday morning. Confidence
in this occurring is rather low at this time with the lack of a low
level cold air source, with any impacts appearing to be negligible
based on the latest NWP consensus forecast. Some gusty winds may
develop closer to the coast during this time frame, with gusty winds
possible region wide as the system departs Friday night into
Saturday. Latest guidance is not indicating wind advisory
conditions, but this may be subject to change if stronger
development occurs closer to the coast later Friday and Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure stays well south and west of the region with a
cold front moving across this morning into this afternoon.

VFR prevails through the TAF period. A brief very light shower,
is possible this morning into this afternoon but no reductions
in visibility are expected.

Westerly winds near 10 kts pick up this morning and become more
WNW, increasing to near 15-20 kts with gusts developing near
25-30 kt. Isolated peak gusts up to 35 kt are possible.

Winds will gradually lower tonight from near 15 kt to near 10
kt. Gusts near 20-25 kt persist into this evening before
subsiding late evening into overnight. Wind direction remains
WNW to W.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

End time of wind gusts could be off by 1-3 hours compared to
TAF.

Isolated gusts up to 35 kt possible.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR. W winds near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt late
morning into afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. W winds 5-10 kt.

Thursday and Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times in rain. NE
wind gusts developing late Thursday through Friday near 20-25
kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A pressure gradient remains in place through the first half of the
week with small craft conditions and marginal small craft conditions
much of the time through at least Tuesday. Will continue small
craft conditions for most of the non-ocean through today, with
far eastern LI Sound likely maintaining small craft conditions
into a good portion of the evening. Otherwise small crafts
continue on the western ocean until midnight, and further east
on the ocean until sunrise Tuesday morning. There is likely
going to be a period of brief relaxation through the first half
of Tuesday, before marginal small craft conditions can develop
again late Tuesday into much of Tuesday night. The pressure
gradient relaxes enough on Wednesday for sub advisory conditions
to return.

Towards Thursday evening small craft conditions will return across
all waters and will likely continue into at least the first half of
the weekend. A period of gales is possible on the ocean and
potentially a portion of the non-ocean waters later in this time
frame depending on the development of low pressure along and off the
coast.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ332-
     355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE