What's Happening In Newington

170
FXUS61 KOKX 091454
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1054 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm and localized flash
flood threat during the afternoon and evening both today and
Friday. Increasingly warm and muggy today and Friday, with heat
indices peaking in the lower to mid 90s on Friday.

2) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with
seasonably warm temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Forecast remains on track, with lead area of showers and
embedded thunderstorms approaching the NYC/NJ metro between 1
and 2 pm. This activity is relatively weak as it encounters a
weakly unstable and weakly sheared environment.

Some of the 00z CAM guidance has initialized this activity
fairly well, and does intensify this activity as it approaches
NE NJ between 17z and 18z in response to building instability
and approaching vort train. Primary threat will be for
torrential downpours, with an isolated flash flood threat (10 %
prob across NE NJ/NYC metro). Secondary threat of a pulse wet
microburst (5 %prob across NE NJ/NYC metro). The flash flood and
severe threat decreases moving N and E from the NYC/NJ metro.

Otherwise, there continues to remain good agreement on Mid-
Mississippi River valley closed upper low shearing towards the
region later today, with a resultant weak surface low pressure
wave tracking across the northern Mid-Atlantic, and lee/pre-
frontal surface trough developing and approaching from the west.

These features should be able to provide a trigger/focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms across NYC/NJ metro and N&W in a
marginally (locally moderate) unstable and weak shear environment.
Severe threat should be limited in this environment, but can`t rule
out an isolated damaging pulse wet microburst threat, especially
if the lower atmosphere is able to destabilize more than
forecast. Environment is more conducive to an isolated flash
flood threat with high PWATs (2-2.25"), a deep warm cloud layer,
and potential for briefly back building storms. Higher flash
flood threat appears to be across SE PA/S NJ with higher
instability and enhanced moisture transport/convergence with the
weak surface wave. Still an isolated flash flood risk is
signaled for the NYC/NE NJ metro region in the high res-
guidance, depicted thru being on the edge of HREF 10% ensemble
prob for 3"/3hr, and HiRes ARW and NSSL WRF indicating max NY/NJ
metro neighborhood value of 2 1/2 to 3" in 3/hr in WPC URRD.
Given the continued signals in the hi-res guidance, will
continue to address in HWO. Diminishing severe/flash flood
threat in the late evening in wake of trough.

On Friday, northern stream shortwave digs into northern New
England, with a bit more in the way of mean troughing across
the region, while a convectively enhanced shortwave approaches
the region Friday aft/eve. At the surface, this will have a
stronger cold front approaching the region in the
afternoon/evening. Trigger and focus is once again there for
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri
aft/eve, with an isolated severe/flash flood threat. A slightly
better severe threat on Friday aft/eve with 30-35kt deep layer
shear profile to complement marginal to locally moderate
instability environment. Damaging wind gusts would be the main
threat. Flash flood threat looks a bit lower than Thursday with
slightly lower PWATS (mid-level drying in wake of Thursday pre-frontal
trough) and quicker anticipated storm movement. Flash flood
threat will ultimately be contingent on moisture pooling ahead
of cold front, storm coverage, and potential SW to NE training
along frontal boundary. Hi-res guidance is hinting at a
potential for more widespread convective activity as compared to
Thursday.

Temperatures will continue to moderate to near seasonable levels
today with highs in the middle 80s. Highs could come close to
90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with most other spots
reaching the upper 80s on Friday, with max heat indices reaching
the low to mid 90s.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...

General model agreement in mean upper troughing sliding across the NE
US this weekend and offshore on Monday, while at the surface
Canadian high pressure builds down from southern Canada thru the
weekend and overhead by Monday.

This pattern should keep conditions mainly dry through the weekend
with temperatures near seasonably warm levels. The general synoptic
pattern could persist into early next week with only a slight uptick
in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR as a weak trough of low pressure approaches the
terminals this afternoon.

A few showers/thunderstorms moving across eastern PA are
expected to reach KEWR/KTEB closer to 17z, so adjusted the TEMPO
to reflect the latest timing. Also, some MVFR cigs (BKN025-030)
are being observed out ahead of it. I have also bumped up the
timing from 19z to 18z for KJFK and KLGA for thunder potential.
MVFR or lower possible in any thunderstorm. No other changes
planed for the afternoon TAFs.

Additional TSRA possible again on Friday afternoon, but outside
current 30-hr TAF window.

Winds will generally be less than 10 kt from the S/SW,
increasing to 10-15kts this afternoon, with locally higher
gusts in any thunderstorms.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for timing of convection today, especially
onset/offset.

A few gusts S/SW 15-20kt possible this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible.

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions expected today and Fri with modest S/SW flow
of 15g20kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible for ocean waters
west of Fire Inlet, entrance to NY Harbor, and adjacent
southern bays each day with coastal jet development. Seas
generally 3 to 4 ft.

Sub-SCA conditions likely continue for the weekend into Monday
with high pressure building towards and then over the waters.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists through
Friday, due to a mixture of 1-3 ft S wind wave and lingering
1-3 ft SE/E swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV/MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...NV/MW