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316
FXUS61 KOKX 022351
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
751 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The high rip current risk has will expire at 8 pm this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected late tonight
into early Thursday morning, followed by a another chance
Thursday afternoon and evening.

2) Mainly dry, seasonably cool conditions are forecast for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Remnants of a convective complex will continue diminishing this
afternoon as it encounters a much more stable environment east
of the Hudson River. Lingering showers are possible across the
Lower Hudson Valley into SW CT and potentially western Long
Island/ NYC metro. Other than a locally heavy downpour, the
showers should be light to moderate. Otherwise, it will be
mainly dry into this evening as the frontal boundary will remain
stalled over the Middle Atlantic up into western PA and western
NY.

Low pressure tracking over eastern Canada in combination with
a belt of strong westerlies will help lift the warm front
towards the area late tonight into early Thursday morning.
Another convective complex is likely to develop within the
westerly flow near the eastern Great Lakes this evening into
tonight before tracking towards the region overnight into early
Thursday. Confidence is high that the remnants of this system
will move across the area bringing showers. There will also be
some embedded thunderstorms, but confidence in the coverage of
storms is lower. There will be increasing elevated instability,
but the boundary layer will likely remain stable. SPC continues
to maintain a marginal risk, mainly west of the NYC metro for
the remainder of its Day 1 outlook through day break Thursday
morning. Think the risk for a severe thunderstorm is very low
tonight with the low levels slow to destabilize. Modest westerly
flow should keep the showers moving fairly quickly limiting the
flooding threat. Minor urban and poor drainage is primary
concern.

The warm front will lift north of the region into Thursday
afternoon. This will allow for much warmer temperatures and
higher dew points/humidity levels to push back into the region.
Temperatures will likely rise into the 80s, potentially as high
as the upper 80s in NE NJ, Thursday afternoon. A trailing cold
front is expected to move across the area late in the afternoon
and evening. Uncertainty remains with potential convective
development as forecast soundings are indicating a fairly
strong capping inversion in the mid levels. Forcing with the
cold front is weak and the region may be left in subsidence
behind the departing complex earlier in the day. These factors
will likely limit any convective development. Will maintain a
chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day/early
evening with this update. Currently SPC keeps any severe risk
south of our area, but an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled
especially if the capping can be eroded. Any isolated/scattered
convection in the early evening should diminish after sunset
with loss of heating. Similar to earlier in the day, any flood
threat looks very marginal and primarily minor urban/poor
drainage.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The cold front will be south of the area on Friday. A W-NW flow
will help boost temperatures into the lower 80s for most and
potentially mid 80s in the warmest spots. Model consensus PoPs
indicate a slight chance of a shower Friday afternoon as another
shortwave rounds the base of the upper trough. Instability and
forcing look to pass to our southwest, but a passing shower
cannot be ruled out for the southern half of the area.

The air mass becomes much cooler and drier Friday night into
the holiday weekend. Temperatures will be close to normal on
Saturday, then slightly below normal for Sunday. There may be
a slight warming trend on Labor Day. Less humid conditions are
also forecast for the holiday weekend. Mainly dry conditions may
prevail into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front approaches tonight and passes through during the
first half of Thursday morning. A trailing cold front follows
Thursday evening.

All terminals expected to lower to IFR tonight. Improvement to
MVFR Thursday morning, then VFR Thursday afternoon.
Thunderstorms possible late tonight, potentially impacting the
early portion of the Thursday morning push. Another round of
thunderstorms possible during the second half of Thursday
afternoon.

ESE winds under 10kt backing more SE this evening, then S to SW
later tonight. SW winds increase 10-15kt by late Thursday
morning. Occasional gusts 16-20kt possible mainly in the
afternoon.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Might need to upgrade TSTM PROB30s to TEMPOs or prevailing late
tonight. Showers during the Thursday morning push probably end a
couple of hours earlier than shown in TAFs.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: VFR. MVFR in a showers/thunderstorm possible
early.

Friday: Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR in afternoon showers.

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas around 4 ft will continue on the ocean through this evening,
but should slowly to around 3 ft into Thursday as swells diminish.
Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through the upcoming holiday weekend.

A 2-3 ft E/SE swell on Thursday combined with a southerly flow
at 10-15kt will keep a moderate risk in place. The swell
diminishes for Friday, and with winds out of the NW to W at 10
kt or less providing little additional energy for rip current
development, the rip current risk for Friday is low.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP/DS
AVIATION...JC/JT
MARINE...DS