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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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771 FXUS61 KOKX 121512 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1112 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather expected mid week, with the highest probability of wet weather from late Wednesday evening through Thursday. 2) Dry and noticeably warmer conditions expected for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry conditions expected through Wednesday morning. Clouds increases late tonight into Wednesday morning ahead of the next system. Low chances for rain showers for far northern areas late tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front moves north. This will be followed by a slowly moving cold front that become occluded over the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Low pressure then pivots nearby late Thursday into Friday morning before pulling away late Friday. This system will bring with in period of light to moderate rain, primarily in the Wednesday evening through Thursday evening time frame. With the low meandering nearby into Friday, additional showery activity remains possible, but much less widespread than with the initial cold front Wednesday into Thursday. There remains low chances of embedded thunderstorms with this rainfall. Generally expecting 0.25 - 0.5" of rainfall with perhaps up to 0.75" in some spots. KEY MESSAGE 2... Clouds may linger into a portion of Friday depending on how quickly the upper level low fills and progresses to the northeast. Most global NWP and AI guidance have trended slightly faster with a more east-northeast progression. With some cold air aloft remaining any surface heating from sunshine would result in at least some broken cumulus for the late morning and afternoon hours. If the upper level low remains close enough to the area some pop-up showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for the late morning and afternoon. With some partial sunshine temperatures should warm close to 70 on Friday as a warming trend begins into the weekend. With high pressure over the area and upper ridging ensuing temperatures have a good chance to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s Saturday, with more widespread 80s potentially into Sunday as night time minimums warm into the 50s, to around 60 in the metropolitan areas. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure settles over the region this afternoon and moves off the coast tonight. VFR. Mainly clear skies this afternoon into this evening, then some bkn mid level cigs come in late tonight. N-NW winds either side of 10 kt become WNW early this afternoon, and then become SW-S later this afternoon. SW sea breeze should however develop earlier at KBDR/KGON by early afternoon. Winds become S 5-10 tonight, then start to increase toward daybreak along the coast. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled AMD expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday: VFR. Chance of showers in the afternoon at KSWF. S winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30kt, highest at the NYC metros and near the coast. LLWS possible late in the afternoon at KISP with S winds 45 kt at 2 kft AGL. Wednesday night: Showers becoming likely. IFR possible after midnight, otherwise MVFR expected. Slight chance of thunder in the evening at KSWF and at the NYC metros after midnight. S winds G20- 25kt mainly before midnight. LLWS possible in the evening at KISP/KGON with S winds 40 kt at 2 kft AGL. Thursday and Thursday night: Showers with possible afternoon tstms. IFR cond possible mainly in the morning and with any tstms, otherwise MVFR cond expected. SE winds G15-20kt in the morning at KISP/KGON. Friday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. NW winds G15- 20kt. Saturday: VFR. SW winds G15-20 kt in the afternoon. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure will be in control along the coastal waters through tonight, although late this afternoon into early evening marginal small craft wind gusts are likely occur for the entrance of NY harbor and adjacent ocean waters and south shore bays. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions should prevail through much of tonight. Afterwards, a southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front during Wednesday. This will lead to small craft conditions developing quickly Wednesday morning and lasting through Wednesday evening for all waters and likely through late Wednesday night for southerly wind waves. Marginal gale conditions are likely for the entrance of NY harbor and adjacent ocean waters and south shore bays Wed aft/eve with hybrid synoptic/seabreeze circulation. Occluded low pressure will be over the waters Thursday resulting in a lighter pressure gradient and a return to sub advisory winds and marginal small craft seas on a portion of the ocean. Sub advisory conditions should continue for Friday into Saturday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MW AVIATION...JE MARINE...MW |
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