What's Happening In Newington

976
FXUS61 KOKX 131244 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
744 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring the relatively mild spell of weather to
an end by Thursday. Single digits wind chills are expected Thursday
night.

2) A series of weak frontal systems will bring possible occasional
light snow this weekend within an increasingly cold airmass
developing across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Above average temperatures for this time of year will continue
through Wednesday, followed by a change to colder and more typical
temperatures for mid January for later this week.

Ahead of the cold front the chances for showers in the form of rain
will increase some during Wednesday afternoon, with the relatively
highest chance at seeing some showers across northwestern portions
of our region. Showers become more likely Wednesday night as the
front gets nearer and eventually into the region. Colder air will
rush in immediately behind the front with temperatures falling late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning from west to east. Any rain
will change quickly over to snow, especially further north and
northwest early Thursday morning. Drier air however will also
quickly rush in just behind the front. Thus any snowfall is expected
to be minor with only a dusting to perhaps as much as an inch across
some of the higher elevations inland, otherwise just a quick dusting
in some spots. Any potential for a impactful east coast storm no
longer exists as the shortwave energy is not expected to phase
in time for our region.

High temperatures on Thursday are likely to occur during the early
to mid morning with strong cold air advection taking place
throughout the day. Temperatures should hold in the lower half of
the 30s for the metro and along the coast during the afternoon, with
temperatures likely falling through the 20s well inland for the
afternoon. This will set up one of the colder nights of the winter
thus far for Thursday night. Temperatures will eventually get down
into the teens widespread across the region, and perhaps as low as
10 above across far western Orange County. Wind chills should get
down into the single digits for the most part region wide.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

A series of surface lows traverse the Great Lakes with their
associated frontal systems moving across the region for the weekend.

Aloft, a mean trough remains across the Northeast with multiple
enhancements to associated jet stream SW to NE from Southeast US
through the Northeast this weekend into early next week. Models
indicate 850mb temperatures and airmass overall getting increasingly
cold this weekend into early next week.

While forcing remains weak with lack of offshore cyclogenesis, there
will be low chances of snow from time to time this weekend. The POPs
are low, less than 30 percent. Amounts for any snow look to be light
in the forecast with a majority of the time expected to be
just mainly dry and cold.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Offshore high pressure gives way to an approaching area of low
pressure today through tonight. Its associated cold front approaches
from the west Wednesday.

Conditions throughout the TAF period will remain mainly VFR. Only
exception would be some possible brief MVFR with isolated to
scattered rain showers moving across parts of the region late
in the TAF period as the cold front gets closer to the region.
Forecast has relatively higher POPs for CT terminals so those
TAFs have a brief mention of rain showers late tonight into
early Wednesday.

Winds will be primarily SW near 5-10 kts through the TAF period.
There is potential for some occasional gusts up to 20 kt late this
afternoon into tonight as a low level jet develops from the SW.
SW winds near 40-45 kt at 2kft will present low level wind
shear tonight for most terminals.


  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible.

MVFR possible late tonight into early Wednesday with rain
showers.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: MVFR possible with possible rain showers, otherwise
VFR. Rain showers become more likely at night with a higher
chance of MVFR and perhaps occasional IFR conditions as some
snow is forecast to mix in.

Thursday: Possible light rain/snow early with MVFR to IFR possible.
Otherwise VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Friday: VFR. W-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR/IFR at times with possible snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions linger early this morning for the eastern
most ocean waters. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions are expected
to prevail for most of today. However, a SW flow increases later in
the afternoon and small craft conditions return for the ocean
waters, and for the south shore bays and far eastern portions of LI
Sound during the late afternoon into tonight. Small craft seas
may linger out on the eastern ocean waters during a portion of
Wednesday, otherwise sub advisory conditions should prevail late
in the day and into Wednesday evening. As a cold front
approaches late Wednesday night and Thursday morning a wind
shift occurs with a cold front and a W wind increases. Small
craft conditions will prevail towards midday for all waters and
could continue through all of Thursday night, especially out on
the ocean and for the eastern non-ocean waters.

Potential SCA conditions especially on the ocean Friday through the
weekend. Gusts could occasionally get close to SCA levels on some
of the non-ocean waters in the same time period but overall,
anticipating mainly sub-SCA conditions for the non-ocean waters.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX Doppler Radar is out of service.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ332-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon EST
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE/JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE/JM