What's Happening In Newington

142
FXUS61 KOKX 080014
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
814 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Improving conditions expected tonight will lead to a gradual
warming trend through the end of the week.

2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and
Friday afternoon and evenings.

3) Mainly dry conditions for the upcoming weekend with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Wave of low pressure passes well offshore tonight allowing for
drier air to filter into the low levels. Lingering light rain,
mainly across CT and parts of LI, will end this evening. Dry
conditions will return overnight and continue through Thursday
morning.

High pressure builds over the area on Wednesday. Temperatures
will start to warm, but still remain below average with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s. The high pressure will shift to the
southeast and offshore on Thursday. Temperatures will continue
to moderate with highs reaching near seasonable levels in the
lower to middle 80s.

The warmest day of forecast period will likely be Friday. Highs
could come close to 90 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ with
most other spots reaching the upper 80s. Max heat indices
should reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures/heat indices will
be lower for the weekend behind a cold front passage. The
forecast heat indices on Friday are below the 1 day heat
advisory criteria (100-104 for any length of time).


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A weak shortwave aloft is forecast to pass across the northeast
on Thursday. At the surface, a trough of low pressure is likely
to set up across the area. The combination of these features
supports the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening. Modeling has differed in the placement of
the focus for convection, but current consensus indicates the
highest probabilities across the southern half of the area
including the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley.
Showers/storms that develop in the afternoon may gradually work
east towards southern CT and Long Island in the evening. CAPE
values are not too impressive with forecast soundings indicating
1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE away from any sea breeze influence.
0-6km shear is weak with on average of about 20 kt. This should
limit severe potential and SPC currently only has the area in a
general thunderstorm risk for Day 3/Thursday.

A slightly more amplified shortwave trough axis is expected to
pass across the northeast on Friday. This system should drag a
cold front through the area late Friday into Friday night. The
system will bring potential for another round of showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and early evening. The latest
model consensus brings the highest probabilities to areas north
and west of the NYC metro. Shear is a bit stronger averaging
around 25-30 kt with similar CAPE valued as Thursday. Specific
details on any severe weather threat are uncertain since this is
still 4 days out, but CSU MLP does indicate a marginal
probability for a severe thunderstorm.

PWATs are progged to range from 1.75-2.00 inches both days.
It is too early to determine if there will be any flooding
impacts and WPC currently does not have the area in an
excessive rainfall outlook.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
The ensemble mean synoptic pattern across the CONUS indicates
ridging across the west and NW flow/troughing over the east
and Western Atlantic. This pattern should keep conditions
mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near seasonably
warm levels. The general synoptic pattern could persist into
early next week with only a slight uptick in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to pull away from the area tonight,
while high pressure builds in from the west. The high then moves
offshore Wednesday afternoon.

Gradually improving to VFR from west to east overnight. Any
additional precipitation will be limited to light rain or
drizzle, mainly at the eastern terminals this evening.

NNE to NE winds at around 10 knots with a few gusts to around
20 kt early, then gradually diminishing overnight. Winds will
shift to the S/SW early Wednesday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of improving ceiling categories overnight may be delayed
by 1 to 3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday-Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day with brief MVFR to IFR
conditions possible.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters east of Moriches
Inlet through 18z (2 pm) Wednesday due to lingering 5-6 ft
seas. Seas will diminish west of Moriches Inlet tonight and then
on all waters on Wednesday with high pressure returning. A
frontal system passes across the waters late Friday into Friday
night. Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the
upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents persists into
Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS