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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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942 FXUS61 KOKX 020811 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 411 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonable temperatures today, with a chance for isolated diurnal showers this afternoon. 2) Summer heat builds (with low humidity) Thursday through Saturday. 3) Unsettled conditions likely from late day Saturday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... An isolated shower possible this afternoon, especially inland off the higher terrain and perhaps along sea breeze fronts, invof a weak sfc trough and one last weak shortwave aloft passing through the longer wave upper trough over the area. After a cool start, high temps will be right near climo norms in the 70s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Guidance continues to advertise East Coast troughing sliding away on Wednesday, with rising heights and zonal flow aloft around the northern periphery of an amplifying ridge for Thu thru Sat timeframe. At the surface, high pressure over the Great Lakes and Midwest to start will sink to the south and set up off the SE US coast by Fri, with deep layer W-SW flow and WAA. Temps in areas from NYC west should get back into the lower 80s on Wed, with more widespread mid to upper 80s on Thu, and around 90 for the urban corridor of NE NJ. Temps likely reach 90-95 on Fri/Sat for NYC/NJ metro, nearby suburbs and in parts of the lower Hudson Valley. Temps could get close to daily record highs on Thu at Bridgeport and at most climate sites except for Central Park on Fri, with record high mins possible on Sat. NBM dewpoints are currently progged in the 50s, which would keep heat index values at or just below temps. Slightly warmer temps and higher dewpoints than forecast could lead heat index values approaching 95 both Fri/Sat for the urban corridor of NE NJ and in parts of NYC with less afternoon sea breeze influence (mainly Staten Island/Manhattan). WPC Day 3-7 probabilities (based on GEFS, ECES, and NAEFS) for >95F heat index values reflect this, continuing to run in the 10-40% range. .KEY MESSAGE 3... General agreement on a northern stream trough amplifying as it moves through SE Canada Sat into Sun, with a back door cold front pushing through the region late Sat into Sat night. This would bring an end to the heat heading into Sunday, and along with another upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes would bring increasing chances for showers and possible tstms from late day Sat into early next week. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains in control through the TAF period. VFR for all terminals through the TAF period. Initially light and vrb winds will pick up out of the N/NW with potential sea breezes at the coast. Highest confidence in a SW flow from a sea breeze is KJFK, KISP, KBDR and KGON. Winds then become light/vrb into early Wednesday toward end of the TAF period. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Higher confidence in a sea breeze at KJFK. Possible late afternoon at KLGA but unlikely for KEWR and KTEB. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Late tonight: VFR. Friday: VFR. S-SW winds 10-14kt with some gusts 15-20 kt possible during the late afternoon/evening. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of an late day or evening shower or thunderstorm could produce some brief MVFR or lower conditions. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub SCA cond expected through Sunday in response to a weak pressure gradient. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BG AVIATION...DBR MARINE...BG |
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NWS New York City/Upton, NY (OKX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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