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439
FXUS61 KOKX 071133
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes compared to previously forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost advisory remains for interior parts of the region into
this morning. Frost advisory expires at 9AM EDT this morning.

2) Temperatures rebound today into Thursday as airmass
moderates. Near normal temperatures thereafter into the weekend.

3) A widespread rain event setting up late this weekend into
Monday next week. Heavy rain possible at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Temperatures expected early this morning to range from lower 30s
in parts of Pine Barrens and parts of the interior to near 50
within parts of NYC Metro with radiational cooling optimized.
The frost advisory appears on track as Orange NY, Putnam NY and
interior Southern CT will have larger areas of frost with low to
mid 30s temperatures, near saturated low levels, and calm winds
allowing for the formation of frost.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
850 mb temperatures already increasing going into today and they
will continue to increase this afternoon. The low level winds
become more SW with some veering to more WSW winds. Warm air
advection and better vertical mixing will result in warmer
temperatures compared to the previous day. Used a combination of
MAV and MET MOS for the high temperature forecast today, mainly
mid to upper 60s.

For Thursday, a cold front moves across during the day, which
will bring extra clouds and perhaps even a few light rain
showers or sprinkles to parts of the region. NBM had a totally
dry forecast as POPs were less than 15 percent, but several CAMS
showed streaks of light reflectivity and the HREF probability
of greater than 0.01 inch was showing higher percentages within
the area during the day. Wanted to incorporate this into the new
forecast with a slight increase to POPs and mention the chance
for sprinkles.

Despite the extra clouds and possible brief light showers, the
winds increase on Thursday with the cold front increasing the
mixing vertical length. Without a significant change in 850mb
temperatures, this will make for a warmer day with mixing down
to the surface. Took the combination of MAV and MET but
decreased by a degree. Still, the high temperature forecast
Thursday gets well into the 70s with much of the area in the low
to mid 70s.

Thereafter, high pressure builds in from the west Thursday night
into the first half of the weekend. Forecast temperatures are
near normal levels, with highs forecast during the day mainly in
the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows forecast at night mostly in
the 40s and 50s.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Forecast remains with higher mainly likely probabilities of
rainfall Sunday into Monday. The rain could be heavy at times.
WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rain. There is
potential for minor flooding of poor drainage and low lying
areas.

This will be from advancement of low pressure from south and
west and associated moisture increase. Precipitable waters
potentially reach near 1.5 to 2 inches. LREF mean of
precipitable waters shows close 1.5 inches with 90th percentile
close to 1.9 inches.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this system in
terms of rainfall amounts, and timing of the rain, especially
for when rain could get heavy. Synoptic features show a mid
level and upper level trough approaching Sunday into Monday and
upper jet streak passing through, potentially positioned as such
to enhance lift in the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the region will move east this afternoon and
evening.

VFR through the TAF period.

Light winds this morning will become SW late morning into early
afternoon and increase to around 10 kt. Occasional gusts to 20
kt cannot be ruled out later in the afternoon and for the
beginning of the evening push at some of the city coastal
terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts to around 20kt possible 18-21Z, especially at
KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR. WSW/W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR daytime. Chance of rain with MVFR cond at
night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
There is possibility for some SCA level wind gusts late this
afternoon, tonight and early Thursday. However, with the timing
of the relatively higher winds (mainly tonight and Thursday
morning), the frequency of gusts would be occasional. Therefore,
held off on any SCA issuance for local waters out 20 nm.

Otherwise, expecting pressure gradient to not be that steep and
for conditions to mostly remain below SCA thresholds through
the weekend. Although, late in the weekend, ocean has a chance
for SCA conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067-068.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM