What's Happening In Newington

113
FXUS61 KOKX 252359
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
759 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Tranquil weather with dry conditions, slightly below normal
temperatures and comfortable humidity continues through Sunday.

2) Unsettled weather with periods of showers and possible
thunderstorms late Monday into a portion of Thursday due to a
slow moving frontal system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure remains in control for the remainder of the
weekend. Dry conditions will continue with slightly below
normal temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. Highs reach
the low 80s with a few spots in NE reaching the mid 80s on
Sunday. Lows tonight and Sunday night will be in the upper 50s
inland and Long Island Pine Barrens, and low to mid 60s closer
to the coast.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Mean troughing will persist over the NE through next week.
Shortwave energy moving around the periphery of western US
ridging and will likely aid in the amplification of the trough
Tuesday, with potential closed low development over the NE
midweek.

High pressure moves offshore on Monday with weak surface
troughing setting up in the vicinity. Some shortwave energy
will likely move across the area Monday afternoon and evening.
This will support the potential of showers and a few
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, mainly NW of
the NYC metro. Moisture levels at this time are not impressive
and shear is weak, so no concerns for any severe weather or
flooding with this activity at this time.

A slow moving frontal system approaches Monday night into
Tuesday. Low pressure is progged to develop along this front,
but there are still significant differences among the modeling
with the timing and location of its development. The low may
develop late Tuesday over upstate NY or could develop over the
Mid Atlantic. These differences play a large roll in the outcome
of sensible weather through the middle of the week. The further
NW track would favor sending a line of showers and
thunderstorms across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low
pressure development over the Mid Atlantic may keep the area
more stable, but still bring potential for locally heavy rain.
The solutions that develop the low over the Mid Atlantic track
it ENE along the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday with
potential of a cooler/more stable environment and a steadier
rainfall.

The bottom line here is there are still a large amount of
uncertainty in the evolution of the system, which may yield
different outcomes. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely
Tuesday into Tuesday night and the potential is there for
locally heavy downpours and localized flash flooding. WPC has
continued to place the region in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall on Tuesday. Any severe threat will be predicated on
extent of heating/instability on Tuesday, which remains on
uncertain. Unsettled conditions continue on Wednesday, but
placement/track of the surface low/upper low will play a huge
role in the sensible weather outcome. The main message here is
the chances for showers a few thunderstorms continue through the
day.

The proximity of the upper low and trough axis supports
continued chances of showers and possibly a afternoon/evening
thunderstorm Thursday. The trough may linger over New England to
end the week with the latest model consensus probabilities for
precip are low and largely confined to the interior.

Astronomical tides will also rise through the week with the
approach of a full moon on Wednesday.

Near to slightly below normal for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gradually weakening high pressure will remain over the area
into Sunday.

VFR.

ESE/SE winds around 10 kt diminish this evening and may even
take on a more southerly component before becoming light and
variable or light E/NE. For Sunday, winds will once again veer
to the ESE/SE at 10 kt or less.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may become more southerly than what is reflected in TAFs,
otherwise unscheduled AMD are not expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: MVFR possible in the afternoon and evening. Chance of
showers and possibly a thunderstorm from the NYC metros
north/west.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower conditions possible. Showers likely and
chance of thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and
evening. S winds G15-20kt.

Wednesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. E winds
15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or
thunderstorm.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels with high pressure over
the region. E-SE flow could gust up to 20 kt at times this
afternoon and then Monday afternoon. Ocean seas will remain
around 3 ft. SCA conditions are likely to return to the ocean
waters and possibly to all waters Tue-Wed, but will be dependent
on timing of a frontal system and possible low development.
Lingering elevated seas could continue on the ocean into
Thursday.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will continue
through Monday at ocean beaches with a a 3-4 ft E-SE wind
wave/swell. &&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DS