What's Happening In Newington

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FXUS61 KOKX 241934
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
334 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence for showers and along with a slight chance of
a thunderstorms Memorial Day morning, with drier conditions for the
afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet and cool conditions continue tonight into the first half of
Memorial Day, with gradual improvement in the afternoon.

2) High risk of rip currents continue into Memorial Day. High Surf
advisory continue through the rest of the day.

3) Warmer and mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday through
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The first wave of low pressure passing over the region will push
eastward later this afternoon and this evening with a main batch of
precipitation sliding eastward. The steady rainfall this afternoon
will be become more light rain/drizzle for this evening and
overnight along with areas of fog with a warm front near the region.

For Memorial Day, Confidence continues to increase with models in
good agreement. The warm front moves north of the area late tonight
into Monday morning. A wave of low pressure then drags a cold front
through the area Monday morning with a shortwave passing through
aloft. It is likely that the precipitation that moves across the
area Monday morning will be more convective in nature as shown in
latest CAMs. Latest NAM and GFS continue to show pwats ahead of this
cold front between 1.75-2.00 inches, which is well above the max
moving average for the OKX observed sounding climatology. This will
result in some higher rainfall rates for the area with isolated
heavy downpours. The good thing is that the speed of the showers
will be fairly quick. Average rainfall amounts on Monday morning
will be around a quarter of an inch, with higher amounts likely in
the heavier downpours. Rainfall rates are not expected to exceed
0.75 inches per hour. Drier conditions are then expected for the
afternoon hours with temperatures warming into the 70s.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A high risk of rip currents continues through Memorial Day due
to a persistent easterly flow and building swell. While Memorial
Day afternoon will dry out and warm up, the lingering swell will
continue to bring dangerous rip currents.

The building swell looks to peak today around 9 to 10 ft at 9
seconds out of the E/SE. This will bring breaking waves between
4 and 9 ft resulting in the High Surf Advisory. Breaking waves
will be lower for Memorial Day.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Warmer and mainly dry conditions are becoming increasingly likely
Tuesday through the end of the week. Temperatures on Tuesday will
likely be above normal in the mid to upper 70s, with some low 80s
for the usual warmer spots. A cold front approaches on Wednesday.
Ahead of the front, temperatures may rise into the mid 80s. The
front should pass through dry, but bring a return to seasonably warm
conditions for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front slowly approaches from the south through this
evening, before lifting over the terminals late tonight and
early Monday. A cold quickly follows late Monday morning into
Monday afternoon.

IFR conditions will continue through early this evening. Light
rain will also continue, but transition to drizzle this
evening. Ceilings will lower to LIFR this evening with
visibilities becoming LIFR this evening into the overnight.
There is a chance for visibilities to lower to 1/4SM in fog
tonight.

A round of showers is expected Monday morning. There is also a
chance for a thunderstorm and have handled this potential
Conditions will gradually improve to MVFR Monday morning.

E-NE winds around 10-15 kt this afternoon will weaken this evening,
becoming under 10 kt this evening. Light and variable flow will
occur overnight into early Monday morning, becoming W-SW late
morning into the afternoon under 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

LIFR conditions onset may be off by 1-3 hours.

There is a chance for 1/4SM FG this evening into early Monday
morning.

Amendments to timing of PROB30 TSRA Monday morning possible.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: Becoming VFR.

Tuesday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The gusty east winds on the area waters will continue to diminish
and drop off significantly by tonight into Monday. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for all waters through this afternoon and
then continue on just the ocean waters tonight for lingering
elevated seas. The elevated seas look to continue into Memorial day,
so have extended the SCAs for the ocean waters. For the ocean waters
from Sandy hook to Jones beach out 20nm, the Advisory is through
Monday evening and from Jones Beach Inlet to Montauk and out 20 NM
the Advisory goes through Monday night.

Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC