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FXUS61 KOKX 211939 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
339 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Starting time on Gale Watch pushed back to Tuesday evening for
the ocean water 20 to 40 nm offshore.

Much of the guidance has trended farther offshore with deepening
low pressure over the western Atlantic Thursday into Friday.
However, it still bears watching.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain chances continue to decrease late tonight into Tuesday,
with a good chance that it remains south altogether.

2) Prolonged period of gusty NE winds starting Tuesday and
through late in the week. Potential for high surf, dangerous rip
currents, beach erosion and some coastal flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An anomalously strong high pressure system centered north of the Great
Lakes will build east across eastern Canada and the Northeast through
midweek. Guidance has continued the trend south with rain as a
frontal wave bucks up against drier, cooler air to the north. It
nw looks like much of the area, if not all of it, will stay dry.
The best chance for some brief light rain and/or sprinkles will
be around the NYC/NJ metro and south and west.

Another sign of the high winning out is the clearing across the
area, which will be replaced by mid and increasing high clouds
through tonight.

Lows tonight will range from around 50 well inland, to the
around 60 across the NYC/NJ metro. Went above NBM due to
increasing clouds and northeast winds increasing toward morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
There has been overall eastward trend with offshore low pressure
at the end of the week. However, the 12Z ECMWF, it ensemble and
the EC-AIFS still remain close to land and haven`t closed the
door on a more impactful system across the area. The GFS and
its members have gone farther to the east, due to the upper
trough closing off farther offshore. The flow is complex with
multiple streams interacting. Expect to see better model
consensus in another 24h or so.

Even so, an anomalously strong 1040mb high across eastern Canada
and broad low pressure off the Mid Atlantic and Southeast
coasts will produce a strong pressure gradient. This in turn
will keep the area in a gusty NE flow through the end of the
week with gales across the ocean. At this time, wind headlines
seem unlikely across land, but this will be highly dependent on
storm track.

The combination of NE winds, increasing astronomical tides
(full moon the 26th), and building seas will at the very least
result in multiple episodes of minor to localized moderate
coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents, and some beach
flooding/erosion. The order of magnitude like everything else
will depend on the aforementioned storm track. Coastal flooding
is likely to begin with Wednesday afternoon`s cycle.

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along all local
ocean beaches Tuesday. Increasing E swells 8-10 ft at a 9 sec
period, and strengthening NE flow above 20 kt drive this risk.

The high risk very likely persists through late this week with
further building ocean swells and winds as an area of low pressure
develops and intensifies offshore. Surf heights along the coastline
increase through midweek as well, potentially topping 6 ft by Wed.
Ocean seas are forecast to reach in excess of 12 ft by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds into the region from the north as a
weak wave of low pressure departs east.

Mainly VFR for the terminals. Low chance of SHRA late tonight
and into Tuesday morning as a wave of low pressure passes south.
SHRA expected to dissipate as they approach the terminals but a
SHRA or two may move into the area. Kept Prob30s for the NYC
terminals for this potential but the trend is leaning more dry
and VFR conditions.

N/NE winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt today. Winds will
diminish late in the afternoon, remaining around 8-12kt through
the night. Wind direction becomes more persistent NE tonight
and gusts are expected to re-develop Tuesday morning with speeds
20-25kt once again.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed timing of end of gusts.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR with a low chance of MVFR in showers. NE
wind gusts 20-25 kt

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. NE winds 20-30 kt, highest at the
coastal terminals.

Friday and Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. N-NE winds
15-20G30-40kt. Highest gusts east of NYC and along the coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NBM winds continue to look overdone based on latest guidance and
model soundings. This reflected in the latest wind forecasts
which bring more marginal gale conditions to the waters with the
est chance being on Wednesday into Thursday. Gale watch
starting time was pushed back to Tuesday evening on the ocean
waters between 20 and 40nm, mirroring the nearshore ocean zones.
Confidence was not high enough at this time to go to a gale
warning.

A closer low track Thursday into Friday could result in storm
force winds and higher seas, but this seems less likely based on
trends in the latest guidance. Seas on the ocean right now are
forecast to build as high as 10 to 15 ft Wednesday night into
Thursday

Rip currents: (See Key message 2)

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon for
     ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DW