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Forecast Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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254
FXUS61 KOKX 230525
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
125 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry with slightly below normal temperatures through the
weekend.
2) A high risk of rip currents remains for ocean beaches
through Thursday (see marine section below).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A large area of high pressure over the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes builds into the area for the end of the week. The high
gradually weakens and moves offshore over the weekend, but
conditions are likely to remain dry.
A much less humid airmass during this time will be accompanied
by temperatures slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions with high pressure building in today.
N-NNW winds around 10kt give way to SE to S sea breezes this
afternoon. Winds becoming light and variable overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of SE sea breeze may be off by 1-3 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Night - Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers, possibly
a thunderstorm, from NYC terminals on NW.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Seas will remain elevated on the ocean through Thursday.
Otherwise, high pressure builds across the waters for the end
of the week with winds and seas below SCA levels Fri- Mon.
Rip Currents: A high rip current risk remains in place through
Thursday, but with a diminishing southerly swell the risk could
decrease to moderate in the afternoon. A moderate risk to start
the day Friday could also lower in the afternoon to low.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ355.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JC
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